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The Opener: Wild Card Series, Press Conferences, MLBTR Chat

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With the playoff field in both leagues now set, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Wild Card Series to begin in both leagues:

The Wild Card Series is set to begin today for both leagues, with things kicking off at 1:32pm CT in Houston as the Tigers come to town after a September surge made them this year’s most surprising postseason entrant. The Astros and ace left-hander Framber Valdez (2.91 ERA) will have their work cut out for them, as they’ll face likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal (2.39 ERA). Later in the day at 3:08pm CT, the Royals will held to Baltimore to face the Orioles in a duel between two more of the AL’s top pitchers: lefty Cole Ragans (3.14 ERA) and righty Corbin Burnes (2.92 ERA).

In the late afternoon and evening, the NL will get things started just 24 hours after the playoff field was set by a doubleheader between the Braves and Mets that sent both clubs to the postseason (and left the Diamondbacks home to watch from the sidelines). Newly-installed Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns heads back to his old stomping grounds of Milwaukee today for a matchup between Luis Severino (3.91 ERA) and Freddy Peralta (3.68 ERA), while the Braves head to San Diego without a clear starter in place. Likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale (2.35 ERA) was expected to start Game 1 for Atlanta but is unlikely to be available due to back spasms, leaving the club to consider emergency options such as AJ Smith-Shawver and Ian Anderson to face off against Padres righty Michael King (2.95 ERA).

2. End-of-season pressers taking place around the league:

For teams that aren’t in the postseason mix, the offseason is getting off to an early start. Most clubs kick off their offseason with press conferences that reflect upon the prior campaign and look ahead to the coming winter, and a few clubs are scheduled to do just that today—including both World Series teams from 2023. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News noted yesterday that Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young will hold a press conference today, and the Diamondbacks announced that GM Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo will do the same at 1pm CT this afternoon. On the heels of replacing Farhan Zaidi with longtime franchise catcher Buster Posey at the helm of baseball operations, the Giants are also among the teams expected to hold an end-of-season presser sometime to day, as noted by The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

The season is now over for 18 of the leagues 30 teams, all of which are now looking toward Spring Training 2025 with hefty offseason to-do lists to complete. Whether your team figures to be active in free agency and on the trade market over the winter, figures to spend the early part of the offseason hunting for a new manager, or remains in the hunt for a World Series championship this year, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at noon CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

The Opener: NL Wild Card, Cardinals, Red Sox

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With the regular season now over for 28 of the league’s 30 clubs, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. NL Wild Card race reaches finish line:

MLB was forced to postpone the final two games of a three-game set between the Braves and Mets last week due to the impact of Hurricane Helene, but with the final two NL Wild Card spots still up in the air after the scheduled end of the regular season, those games will be made up as part of a doubleheader today. If either Atlanta or New York get swept in today’s doubleheader, they’ll miss the playoffs as the winner moves on to face the Padres in San Diego during the Wild Card Series, while the Diamondbacks head to Milwaukee for a match up against the Brewers. If the two teams split the series, the Braves will head to San Diego while the Mets head to Milwaukee, leaving Arizona out of the playoffs and unable to defend their status as the reigning champs of the NL.

Game 1 of today’s doubleheader is scheduled to begin at 1:10pm local time in Atlanta. Rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach (3.47 ERA in 20 starts) will be on the mound for the Braves in Game 1, and The Athletic’s David O’Brien was among those to note that veteran southpaw Chris Sale (2.38 ERA in 29 starts) will take the mound in Game 2 if the Braves are facing elimination. In the event that Braves win Game 1 today, however, Atlanta appears poised to push Sale back to tomorrow so he can face San Diego in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. As for the Mets, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com notes that right-hander Tylor Megill (3.98 ERA in 14 starts) is set to face Schwellenbach in Game 1 while Luis Severino (3.91 ERA in 31 starts) will start Game 2 if the Mets are facing elimination. Like Sale, Severino would be held back for the start of the Wild Card Series should New York emerge victorious in Game 1.

2. Cardinals to hold presser amid organizational changes:

As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, the Cardinals are set to hold a press conference at 2pm local time in St. Louis this afternoon on the heels of a disappointing 83-79 season where the club missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. The presser comes on the heels of plenty of news in the rumor mill regarding the Cardinals’ future over the weekend. That includes a report that the club will part ways with longtime first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and look to deal veteran players over the winter in an effort to cut payroll, with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray among those who could be shopped. While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and manager Oli Marmol are both set to remain in their roles with the club in 2025, former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom figures to take a much larger role in the club’s front office going forward.

3. Red Sox to hold end of season press conference:

The Red Sox announced last week that manager Alex Cora, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, and team president Sam Kennedy are scheduled to hold a press conference together later today to discuss the club’s plans for the offseason as they look ahead to 2025. Boston finished the year with an 81-81 record and missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season, though they did enjoy breakouts from young members of their core like Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu. Veteran starter Nick Pivetta, closer Kenley Jansen, set-up man Chris Martin, and slugger Tyler O’Neill are among the club’s outgoing free agents this winter.

Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

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The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Tigers Place Shelby Miller On Release Waivers

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The Tigers announced this afternoon that right-hander Shelby Miller has cleared outright waivers and been placed on unconditional release waivers. Assuming Miller clears release waivers, he’ll become a free agent.

Miller, 34 next month, was the 19th-overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Cardinals and appeared to be a budding star during the early 2010s as he posted a 3.22 ERA in 575 1/3 innings of work from his debut in 2012 through the end of the 2015 season, when he made it to the All-Star game with the Braves. The wheels came off for Miller after that, however, and he struggled badly with both injuries and ineffectiveness over the next several years. From 2016 to 2022, Miller saw little success at the big league level with a ghastly 7.02 ERA in 202 2/3 combined innings of work across six seasons. His 5.21 FIP in that time indicated he made have been the victim of some poor luck, but even that figure was well below the league average mark for a pitcher.

Fortunately for Miller, he managed to turn his fortunes around after signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season last year. Now a full-time reliever, Miller pitched 42 innings for L.A. last season and dominated to the tune of an excellent 1.71 ERA that was backed up by a solid 3.68 FIP and a 25.8% strikeout rate. Miller’s impressive turnaround earned him a big league deal with the Tigers last offseason that guaranteed him $3MM.

It’s a contract that did not turn out especially well for Detroit, as a handful of blow-up outings marred an otherwise solid season for the right-hander. While 37 of his 51 appearances with the Tigers this year were scoreless, he had five outings where he surrendered three or more runs while recording three outs or less, including a disastrous outing last month where he surrendered four runs on four consecutive hits without recording an out. Turning back to his overall season in 2024, his 4.53 ERA and 4.48 FIP are both worse than league average, and his 21.8% strikeout rate represents a significant step back from last year’s level. Miller also struggled with the long ball this year relative to his time in L.A. as 12.3% of his fly balls have left the yard, nearly double last year’s rate.

Still, with free agency on the horizon for Miller once again it seems possible he could garner interest as a middle relief option this winter. Even considering his down year with the Tigers this year, the right-hander has pitched to a 3.32 ERA with a 4.14 FIP in 97 2/3 innings since rebounding with the Dodgers last winter with a combined 23.5% strikeout rate and an 8.2% walk rate. That gives Miller a fairly solid track record if his last two seasons are looked at in tandem, and it’s not hard to imagine a club believing his true talent level falls somewhere between last year’s dominant performance and his slightly below average results in 2024.

Latest On Anthony Rizzo

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TODAY: The Yankees didn’t place Rizzo on the injured list, instead optioning Scott Effross to Triple-A to call up Rice.  Boone described Rizzo’s chances of playing in the ALDS as a “long shot,” in speaking with Hoch and other reporters today.

SEPT 28: Manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) following today’s loss to the Pirates that first baseman Anthony Rizzo sustained two fractured fingers when he was struck by a pitch from Pittsburgh lefty Ryan Borucki. Hoch later added that, per Boone, the first baseman had actually fractured both his fourth and fifth fingers on his right hand. Rizzo exited the game following the incident, and it’s not yet clear when he’ll be able to return to the diamond. As noted by Hoch, Boone did not rule Rizzo out for the club’s upcoming postseason push.

“We’ll see what we have as the week moves forward,” Boone said. “It doesn’t totally rule him out. It’s a pain tolerance thing.”

It’s the latest injury-related setback for Rizzo in what has become a series of frustrating injuries during his tenure with the Yankees. After an eight-season stretch in Chicago where Rizzo was rarely injured, appearing in 94% of the Cubs’ regular season games from 2013 to his trade to the Bronx in 2021, the veteran first baseman has been far less available throughout his tenure with the Yankees. While he managed 130 games in his first full season with the club in 2022, his past two years have been marred with post-concussion syndrome and a fractured forearm that both set him down for multiple months, leaving him to appear in less than 60% of the club’s contests over the past two years.

Those injury issues have coincided with a downturn in performance for the 35-year-old, who this year is slashing just .227/.298/.334 through 91 games. It’s his worst showing in a season since the 49-game cup of coffee with San Diego that kicked off his lengthy big league career, and a far cry from the production the Yankees were surely hoping to get from him when they signed him to a two-year deal that guaranteed him $40MM prior to the 2023 season. With that being said, even losing a diminished version of Rizzo is still a blow to the Yankees’ lineup headed into the postseason.

After all, the club got lackluster production from a combination of Ben Rice and DJ LeMahieu at first base in Rizzo’s absence; only the Rockies posted a lower wRC+ at first base than the 76 the Yankees put up in Rizzo’s absence, and the club’s -1.1 fWAR at the position put them ahead of only the Astros among all AL clubs. It should also be noted that while Rizzo has hardly been the middle-of-the-lineup force he was earlier in his career since returning to the lineup on September 1, he has hit better overall with a .247/.345/.315 slash line in 84 plate appearances. That’s good for a wRC+ more than 15 points higher than the figures put up by Rice and LeMahieu’s combined efforts in his absence.

If Rizzo is healthy enough to take the field for the Yankees when the ALDS begins on October 5, it seems likely that he’ll be the best option the club has available at first base. Failing that, however, Hoch notes that Boone did confirm that Rice would be an option for the club’s postseason roster. A 25-year-old rookie, Rice is a bat-first catcher that has begun to move over to first base in recent years in part to accommodate the rapid advance of his offense. The youngster has slashed a sensational .294/.428/.661 in 30 games at the Triple-A level this year after posting similarly excellent numbers in 97 career games at the Double-A level, but he’s hit just .174/.269/.356 in a 49-game cup of coffee over the summer.

That figure includes a somewhat stronger .184/.265/.395 slash line in 132 trips to the plate against righties at the major league level. That could make him an excellent choice for a lefty-mashing platoon partner, but with LeMahieu on the IL amid a career-worst season that saw him hit just .164/.235/.206 against southpaws there aren’t many good options for that role. One possibility would be utility man Jon Berti, who sports a decent .250/.328/.384 career slash line against lefty pitching, but it would be a bold choice for the club to put Berti at first base with zero experience at the position in the middle of the playoffs, even considering his exceptional positional versatility. Switch-hitter Oswaldo Cabrera has some experience at first base and even replaced Rizzo there following his exit today, but he’s hit just .206/.251/.306 against southpaws to this point in his career.

Vinnie Pasquantino Ahead Of Schedule, Could Return For Wild Card Series

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Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino saw his regular season come to an end a month ago when he suffered a broken right thumb. It was a devastating blow to Kansas City’s offense, and the initial timeline provided at the time left him set to miss the next six-to-eight weeks, not only ending his regular season but likely keeping him out for most if not all of the postseason. Flash forward to today, however, and things are looking far more optimistic. As noted by Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star, Pasquantino is under consideration to be activated from the injured list to join the club’s roster for the AL Wild Card series, which begins on Tuesday.

The move would be something of a shock just four weeks after his injury, but Thompson notes that the 26-year-old has resumed taking batting practice and even faced live pitching yesterday. In an interview during the team’s broadcast of last night’s game, GM J.J. Picollo noted that Pasquantino “felt good” after the session but that the club will need to evaluate him today before deciding whether to activate him or have him continue rehabbing in hopes of impacting the club deeper into the playoffs, should they make it that far. Per MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, the club plans for Pasquantino to face live pitching again tomorrow before they make a decision on whether or not to activate him for Tuesday’s Wild Card Series.

If Pasquantino is truly healthy enough to return early, it would be a major boost to Kansas City’s offense. In 131 games with the Royals this year, the 26 year old has hit a respectable .262/.315/.446 with 19 homers in 554 trips to the plate and a 108 wRC+. That makes him just one of four Royals hitters with a better than league average wRC+ alongside second baseman Michael Massey, veteran backstop Salvador Perez, and MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. For a Royals club that has primarily made it to the postseason off the back of an excellent starting rotation (as well as the offensive heroics of Witt), adding another reliable bat to the lineup could be a game changer for the Royals as they head into their first postseason series since winning the 2015 World Series nearly a decade ago.

While the first baseman could return to action for the series, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be playing first base. Thompson notes that the club activated Massey back in June before he was ready to return defensively, instead using him exclusively as a DH and pinch hitter for two weeks before eventually being eased back into defensive duties at the keystone. Should the Royals follow a similar path with Pasquantino, it’s possible he wouldn’t retake his role at first base until late in the playoffs, if at all.

That would leave Yuli Gurriel, who has slashed .260/.361/.320 (96 wRC+) across 17 games with the Royals this year, in place as the club’s first baseman, while Pasquantino is installed as the club’s everyday DH during the postseason. In recent weeks, the Royals haven’t had a set DH and have instead used that spot in the lineup to rest players but Pasquantino’s return would seem likely to cost Freddy Fermin playing time by causing the club to start Perez behind the plate more frequently. That said, it’s also possible that Perez could be used as the club’s regular first baseman, leaving Fermin behind the plate and pushing Gurriel to the bench.

Astros Select Ryan Gusto

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The Astros announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Gusto. Gusto will make his big league debut in today’s regular season finale, starting this afternoon’s game against the Guardians. To make room for Gusto on the 40-man and active rosters, outfielder Ben Gamel was transferred to the 60-day IL while right-hander Shawn Dubin was optioned to the minor leagues.

Gusto, 25, was Houston’s 11th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He’s enjoyed something of a breakout over the past two seasons, as he impressed in 61 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year with a 2.93 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of action at the level. That earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level to start the 2024 season, and while he struggled badly in his first taste of Pacific Coast League action this year (8.03 ERA in his first two months) he’s turned things around a big way since then. In 108 innings of work since the start of June, Gusto has dominated opponents with a 2.08 ERA and 23.2% strikeout rate while walking just 6.4% of opponents.

Now, Gusto will get the opportunity to show off what he can do against big league hitters. With both Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi ticketed for free agency this winter, it’s easy to imagine Gusto working his way into consideration for the club’s rotation mix next year as one of the club’s few upper-level arms who have not yet been integrated into the big league rotation. The club figures to have Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti as rotation options headed into next year with plenty of other players due back from the IL sometime next season but Gusto could be an important depth piece for the club come Spring Training, particularly if the club doesn’t make additions to the rotation over the winter.

As for Gamel, the move to place the 32-year-old on the 60-day IL is largely procedural. The outfielder was already on the shelf due to a fractured fibula and considered likely to miss the entire postseason, though today’s roster move confirms that he won’t play again this year. Gamel hit a decent .247/.384/.333 with the Mets and Astros this year and figures to enter free agency this winter as an interesting bench option for clubs in need of outfield depth.

Orioles Designate Tucker Davidson For Assignment

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that they’ve designated left-hander Tucker Davidson for assignment. Right-hander Colin Selby was recalled to the big league roster in Davidson’s place, and the club’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.

Davidson, 28, came to the Orioles last year when the club claimed him off waivers from the Royals. He was promptly outrighted off the 40-man roster later in the offseason and remained with the club in the minor leagues throughout 2024, putting up a decent 3.89 ERA in 115 2/3 innings of work during that time while swinging between Norfolk’s rotation and bullpen.

Those results are generally much better than the ones he’s garnered in the majors throughout his career. The lefty surrendered a 5.11 ERA in 37 innings of work for the Braves from his debut in 2020 until his departure at the 2022 trade deadline, when he was traded to Anaheim as part of the trade that brought Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta. He spent parts of two seasons with the Angels and struggled badly. In 68 1/3 innings of work spread between 18 relief appearances and eight starts, Davidson was shelled to the tune of a 6.72 ERA with a 4.93 FIP. That led the Angels to part ways with the lefty, and he finished the 2023 campaign with the Royals. He posted a 5.03 ERA in Kansas City before the aforementioned waiver claim that brought him to Baltimore last offseason.

Going forward, the Orioles will have one week to pass Davidson through waivers. While he’s likely to clear waivers, he’ll become a minor league free agent this winter if not added back to the 40-man roster before free agency opens in November. Should he reach the open market, Davidson could garner some attention as a minor league depth option from the left side thanks to his ability to pitch both out of the bullpen and in the starting rotation.

Report: Cardinals Open To Offers On Sonny Gray

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After a second consecutive season where they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals organization appears to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early in this coming week, rumors have swirled that the club is set to make some notable organizational changes to kick off their offseason. Those changes figure to be headlined by former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom stepping into a larger role with the club’s baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that this offseason’s changes could carry over to the big league roster as well. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are willing to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Sonny Gray just one year after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal as the team hopes to cut payroll entering next year.

The notion of St. Louis looking to trim down its payroll isn’t exactly a shocking one. Cardinals attendance dropped below 3 million this year for the first time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the club with less gate revenue than expected. Meanwhile, the TV revenue side of things isn’t much rosier as the Cardinals are one of the teams impacted by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. While MLB and the Players’ Association agreed back in July to redirect funds towards clubs that have lost TV revenue amid Diamond’s troubles, it would hardly be a surprise if the club’s budgets going forward were impacted by this revenue uncertainty.

Even if the overall baseball operations budget isn’t reduced, it’s still possible to imagine the club’s player payroll dropping heading into 2025. After all, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals organization earlier this week and described a situation where the club has begun to prioritize major league payroll over investing in the organization’s development infrastructure, resulting in cuts to key areas of player development in order to sustain an ever-growing payroll at the big league level. With changes to the front office seemingly on the horizon, it’s certainly plausible that the club could pare back its payroll in order to invest in a more robust player development apparatus.

That possibility of a lower big league payroll next year leads back to Gray, who will see his back-loaded salary rise from $10MM this year to $25MM in 2025. While RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has just $108MM in guaranteed commitments for next year, that doesn’t include an increasingly expensive arbitration class including key players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it include the possibility of the club deciding to exercise its club option on one or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, each of which are $12MM options with $1MM buyouts. With Gray’s $15MM raise this year and those possible additions to the payroll, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals may need to trade salary away in order to address the roster’s needs this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM salary when he reaches free agency in November.

With that being said, losing Gray would be a major blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending next year. The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent and he remains just one year removed from a dominant season with the Twins that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would likely be an improvement to just about any club’s rotation next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals themselves finding an adequate replacement for the right-hander internally coming off a season where the club’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks 21st in the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks 15th even with Gray in the fold.

What’s more, the hefty salary that could lead the Cardinals to consider dealing Gray could prove to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly difficult to trade. Between his salary for the next two years and a $5MM buyout on his option for 2027, Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any club to take on, and it could be especially problematic for clubs at or near the luxury tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxury tax purposes based on the remaining dollars and years on the deal, meaning that an acquiring team would be accepting a hit of nearly $32.5MM to their luxury tax ledger over the next two years by trading for Gray. Even if the Cardinals can find a trade partner willing to stomach that cost, Gray’s full no-trade clause could further complicate things by allowing him to block any deal if so chooses.

That’s not to say a deal would be completely impossible, of course. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses and even larger contracts than Gray have been dealt over the years, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal done there will surely be suitors for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Nightengale suggests that the Reds, for whom Gray pitched from 2019-21 and made his second career trip to the All-Star game, could have interest in a reunion if the veteran is made available this winter.

The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 but nonetheless sport an exciting young core of talent led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Adding Gray as an experienced, front-of-the-rotation veteran would be a huge boost for a Cincinnati rotation that appears likely to lose Nick Martinez to free agency this year but still has a number of interesting young arms behind Greene such as Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of those young arms would surely be attractive to St. Louis as a potential return for Gray’s services given their own rotation needs, though it seems likely that the Cardinals would need to retain some money in order to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ typically low payrolls and Gray’s large contract.

Twins Select Randy Dobnak

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The Twins announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Randy Dobnak. In a corresponding move, right-hander Diego Castillo was designated for assignment.

Dobnak, 29, signed an ill-fated extension with the Twins prior to the 2021 season on the heels of a 2020 campaign where he showed promise as a potential mid-rotation starter with a 4.05 ERA and 3.96 FIP through ten starts. After a strong rookie campaign in 2019, that gave Dobnak a career 3.12 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 75 innings of work in the majors at the time of the deal. Unfortunately, things quickly went off the rails for the right-hander as he surrendered a ghastly 7.64 ERA in 50 2/3 innings of work during the first year of his extension. Those lackluster results led to the club outrighting him off the 40-man roster in September of 2022.

Since then, Dobnak has remained in the Twins organization while primarily pitching at Triple-A. He’s done fairly well for himself in the minors this year, with a 4.25 ERA in 133 1/3 innings of work that earned him another look at the big league level. That stint back in the majors earlier this year didn’t go over very well, however, as Dobnak surrendered a 5.87 ERA in 7 2/3 frames before being shipped back to the minors. He’ll now finish the season in the Twins bullpen and on the 40-man roster. He remains under contract with the club through the end of the 2025 season, and does not yet have enough service time to reject an outright assignment without also forfeiting the remainder of his contract.

Making room for Dobnak on the club’s 40-man roster is Castillo, who signed with Minnesota on a minor league deal over the offseason and was first selected to the roster at the end of May. Since then, he’s posted a solid enough 2.70 ERA in 10 innings of work but hasn’t been able to stick on the Twins roster due to shaky peripherals, including more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in the majors. When at Triple-A with the Twins this year, Castillo has struggled badly with a 5.59 ERA in 40 appearances.

Despite those deep struggles, however, it’s not impossible to imagine the right-hander continuing to draw attention from clubs as a minor league depth option this winter. After all, Castillo excelled with the Rays and Mariners earlier in his career with a 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP in 250 appearances from 2018 to 2022. Any club that believes they can unlock that form in Castillo will surely have interest in bringing him into the fold and seeing what he has next spring. Of course, before Castillo can officially reach free agency he’ll need to clear waivers sometime in the next week.

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