The Opener: All-Star Game, Draft Day 3, MLBTR Chat
As the festivities of the All-Star break continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. 2024 All-Star Game:
The 94th MLB All-Star Game is set to take place in Arlington tonight. Hometown manager Bruce Bochy will manage the American League. The National League team will be managed by Arizona manager Torey Lovullo. The NL club will send Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes (1.90 ERA) to the mound to begin the game, while Bochy will counter with Orioles ace Corbin Burnes (2.43 ERA) to represent the AL.
Last year, the NL eked out a 3-2 win over the AL for their first victory in the All-Star Game since 2012, and they’ll look to make it two in a row this evening at 7pm CT. They’ll do so without Fernando Tatis Jr. in the starting lineup, as the Padres star is sidelined by injury and has been replaced by Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. A similar situation has played out at second base in the AL, where Astros star Jose Altuve has stepped back from the All-Star Game due to a hand injury and ceded his spot in the starting lineup to Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien.
2. Draft Day 3:
Yesterday saw all 30 organizations select a variety of potential future big leaguers in Rounds 3-10 of the MLB draft. The draft will conclude today with Rounds 11-20 starting at 1pm CT. At this point in the draft, most top-tier talents are prep players expected to honor their commitments to play collegiate ball. To have a realistic shot of signing any of them, a club would have to have saved up a considerable portion of their bonus pool from the first two days. Players like right-hander Dax Whitney (committed to Oregon State), outfielder Garrett Shull (an Oklahoma State commit) and shortstop Sawyer Farr (a Texas A&M recruit) are all widely considered to be among the best 50 to 100 talents in this year’s overall draft class but could be tough signs, given bonus pool limitations and strong college commitments.
3. MLBTR Chat Today:
With MLB’s All-Star festivities fully underway and the 2024 draft reaching its final stage, the attention of MLB clubs will soon turn to the coming trade deadline on July 30. If you have any questions about your favorite team’s direction in the coming weeks or a trade idea you have in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
The Opener: Home Run Derby, Draft Day 2, Soroka
As the 2024 season enters its midsummer recess, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. 2024 Home Run Derby:
While the All-Star Futures Game and Day 1 of the MLB Draft both kicked into gear over the weekend, All-Star festivities are kicking into high gear today with this year’s Home Run Derby scheduled to take place at 7pm CT. The event is set to be broadcast on ESPN and features a new set of rules, including the top four hitters from the first round advancing into a bracket-style tournament in the semifinals as opposed to previous years where a bracket was present from the beginning of the derby. MLB.com offers a detailed look at the full rules changes for tonight’s event.
Two-time derby champion Pete Alonso will try to win a third title in five attempts, while Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia will look to win the derby in his home ballpark. Ken Griffey Jr. holds the record for the most derby wins with three. Bryce Harper (2018) and Ryne Sandberg (1990) are the only two players to ever win on their home field. Alonso and Garcia will be joined in the event by Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez, Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Braves DH Marcell Ozuna, Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
2. Draft Day 2:
Day 1 of the MLB draft kicked off with the Guardians selecting Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana with the first overall pick. By the end of the night, 74 picks had been made in total across the first two rounds. Day 2 of the draft, which will cover rounds three through ten, starts at 1pm CT this afternoon. Per MLB Pipeline, outfielder Dakota Jordan (No. 34 in the class) is the top college player still available, while right-hander and University of Iowa commit Joey Oakie (No. 46) is the top high schooler still on the board after right-hander William Schmidt (No. 16 in the class) announced that he’ll be honoring his commitment to LSU yesterday afternoon. The Athletic’s Keith Law, meanwhile, considers second baseman Peyton Stovall (No. 34) to be the top college player while listing outfielder and Auburn commit D’Marion Terrell (No. 52) as the best prep talent remaining.
3. Soroka injury scare:
White Sox right-hander Michael Soroka was pulled from his outing against the Pirates after just one out yesterday thanks to what the team has described as right shoulder soreness. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, he’s set to be evaluated further during the All-Star break. It’s a frustrating situation for Soroka, who will celebrate his 27th birthday next month. The righty was among the most exciting young pitchers in the game back in 2019, when he earned an All-Star nod, finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, and even received down-ballot Cy Young consideration.
Soroka suffered four consecutive lost seasons after that, however, making just ten appearances from 2020-23 due to injuries. He was finally healthy entering the 2024 campaign but has not looked like the same pitcher. He’s struggled to a 5.23 ERA and 5.40 FIP and found himself dropped from the rotation in Chicago by mid-May. Soroka has performed nicely in a multi-inning relief role since then, logging a 3.45 ERA (3.37 FIP, 3.07 SIERA) with a massive 36.7% strikeout rate. Granted, he’s also walked 14.1% of his opponents in that time, but it’s still easy to imagine the pending free agent getting some trade interest based on that strikeout rate — if he can show he’s healthy after the break.
Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Heyward, Betts
Dodgers fans received great news regarding veteran left-hander Clayton Kershaw today, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) this afternoon. The lefty pitched three innings without giving up a hit in a rehab start at the Triple-A level yesterday, striking out five while walking just one. According to Roberts, Kershaw is set to attempt to build on that strong outing on Friday with a four-to-five inning start. If that next rehab start goes well, the manager went on to suggest that the lefty could then return to the big leagues to make his 2024 debut.
A return to the Dodgers shortly after the All Star break would be a fantastic outcome for Kershaw, who had to be shut down from his rehab just three weeks ago due to lingering soreness in his shoulder. Last night’s start was his first since ramping back up after that shut down, and the fact that he’s already seemingly on the cusp of a return suggests that the soreness that had sidelined him has evaporated entirely. The future Hall of Famer’s return to action can’t come soon enough for the Dodgers, as the dire state of the club’s rotation mix has led them toward calling up right-handed prospect River Ryan just 16 1/3 innings into his season at the Triple-A level.
With both Kershaw and Ryan seemingly poised to join the club’s rotation as reinforcements in the aftermath of the break, the Dodgers are surely hoping the pair can combine with the existing quartet of veteran James Paxton and rookies Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobleski to handle starting duties until ace righty Tyler Glasnow is ready to return from the injured list. Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are also both on the IL but expected to return to the majors at some point this season, while youngster Bobby Miller was sent to Triple-A recently despite the thinned-out rotation mix due to a brutal 8.07 ERA in seven starts this year.
Kershaw isn’t the only veteran help the Dodgers will be getting back from the IL shortly after the break, as Harris also relays that (per Roberts) outfielder Jason Heyward will be ready to return to action after the All Star break and will not require a rehab assignment before returning to the majors. The 34-year-old has taken a step back this year relative to his surprisingly strong 2023 campaign but has still been roughly league average at the plate with a .203/.299/.398 slash line in 42 games this season.
Heyward’s return should add depth to an outfield mix that has relied on struggling youngster James Outman in recent days. Outman entered the campaign likely to be a regular in the outfield for the Dodgers on the heels of an excellent 2023 season but struggled brutally in the early weeks of the season, leading the Dodgers to option him in mid-May. While he’s improved upon his previously brutal .147/.250/.266 slash line since returning earlier this month, Outman’s .273/.333/.273 slash line in six games since coming back to the majors hasn’t exactly inspired confidence in his ability to reclaim a regular role with the Dodgers, and the return of a steadier bat like Heyward’s should be a relief for the Dodgers team that has at times struggled to get production from the bottom of its lineup this year.
Heyward is joined in making progress towards a return by superstar Mookie Betts, who Roberts told reporters (including Harris) has begun to field grounders as he rehab his fractured left hand. Betts has been on the shelf since mid-June with a 6-8 week recovery time expected and isn’t expected back until sometime in August. He seems to still be more or less on track for that return, with Roberts noting (according to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) that the 31-year-old is “excited” about the progress he’s making.
Betts was in the midst of a MVP-caliber season prior to his injury, slashing an incredible .304/.405/.488 in 72 games that’s made all the more impressive by the fact that he was simultaneously making a relatively seamless transition to becoming the everyday shortstop in L.A. this season. Miguel Rojas has looked good on both sides of the ball in an expanded role since Betts went on the shelf, however, meaning that the star might spent more time at a position more familiar to him such as second base or right field upon his return.
Twins Designate Caleb Boushley For Assignment
The Twins announced this afternoon that they’ve designated right-hander Caleb Boushley for assignment. In addition, they’ve announced that infielder Diego Castillo‘s contract has been selected and that he’ll be taking the place of infielder Jose Miranda on the active roster. Miranda has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a low back strain. The Castillo and Miranda moves were previously reported last night.
Boushley, 30, appeared in just one game for the Twins this year. He signed with the club on a minor league deal back in January but wasn’t selected to the roster until the beginning of May. Boushley struggled in his lone appearance in a Twins uniform, allowing two runs on three hits while recording both a strikeout and a walk in two innings of work. He’s spent the rest of the season to this point pitching as a starter at the Triple-A level, where he sports a 4.68 ERA across 16 starts. His 20.8% strikeout rate is solid and his 4% walk rate is incredible, but Boushley has had some trouble with the long ball this year, surrendering ten in his 84 2/3 innings of work this year.
A longtime Padres farmhand after being selected in the 33rd round of the 2017 draft, Boushley moved on to the Brewers prior to the 2022 season and spent two seasons with the club before finally making his big league debut in late September last year, just days before his 30th birthday. His lone major league appearance in a Brewers uniform went better than his outing with the Twins, as he struck out five batters while walking two and allowed just one run on a solo homer in 2 1/3 innings of work. With a relatively pedestrian 4.62 ERA in 87 appearances (82 starts) at the Triple-A level for his career, the journeyman has shown himself to be a serviceable multi-inning depth option for a club in need of pitching.
Minnesota will now have one week to either work out a trade involving Boushley or try and pass him through waivers. If Boushley clears waivers, the Twins will have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minor leagues, though Boushley could opt to reject that assignment in favor of free agency should he choose to do so after being outrighted previously by the Brewers last year.
Dodgers To Promote River Ryan Following All-Star Break
The Dodgers are planning to promote right-handed pitching prospect River Ryan to the majors following the All Star break, according to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. It’s not currently known which specific day Ryan is expected to take the ball, and Ardaya also notes that it’s unclear how long the Dodgers expect to keep the right-hander in the big league rotation. Ryan is not yet on the 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move will be necessary before Ryan can be promoted.
Ryan, 26 next month, was an 11th-round pick by the Padres in the 2021 draft who was acquired by the Dodgers prior to his pro debut in the deal that sent Matt Beaty to San Diego. Ryan raised his prospect profile last season by impressing with a 3.33 ERA and a 23.7% strikeout rate in 97 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year. The start to the righty’s 2024 season was delayed by a shoulder issue, but he returned to the mound in early June and has looked good ever since. He’s been nothing short of dominant in five starts at the Triple-A level this year as he’s posted a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings of work while punching out 28.8% of batters faced.
That’s a smaller body of work for a prospect to get at the highest level of the minors than is typically expected, but it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Dodgers feel the need to turn to Ryan given the big league club’s rotation woes. Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are all currently on the IL, joined Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, and Clayton Kershaw. No one in that latter group has been healthy enough to pitch in the majors this year, and that list doesn’t include right-handed youngster Nick Frasso, who has missed the entire 2024 season due to surgery but is on the minor league injured list. The club’s many upper-level pitching injuries have been further exacerbated by the struggles of youngster Bobby Miller, who has an 8.07 ERA in seven big league starts and was recently optioned to the minor leagues.
That’s left the Dodgers in a somewhat desperate situation regarding the rotation. James Paxton is the only starter currently in the club’s rotation who was an established big leaguer prior to this season, and he’s currently joined by rookies Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobleski. While both Stone and Knack have excelled this year, with Stone in particularly quickly establishing himself as among the club’s best options even when the rotation is healthy, Wrobleski has struggled in his brief time in the rotation and the Dodgers lack a fifth starter even with him in the fold. That’s caused the club to start right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. today despite claiming him off waivers from the Pirates just a day ago.
While he’s now seemingly being forced into action by the large number of injuries in the majors, Ryan is nonetheless one of the top pitching prospects in the club’s system. Baseball America currently rates him as the tenth-best prospect in the Dodgers farm, while MLB Pipeline rates him fourth behind only catcher Dalton Rushing, outfielder Josue De Paula, and Frasso. The Athletic’s Keith Law is perhaps highest on Ryan and ranked him 33rd on his preseason top 100 prospects list. Ryan features an upper-90s fastball as part of a four-pitch mix, and services generally seem to be in agreement that the righty has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter, though his lack of professional innings seem to give some outlets pause.
Astros Notes: Garcia, Verlander, Tucker
The Astros are pulling back a bit on right-hander Luis Garcia‘s rehab process after he didn’t rebound well follow his most recent start in the minors, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) on Friday. Kawahara went on to note that Espada emphasized that Garcia had not suffered a setback, although plans for the righty to throw a bullpen has been delayed and there’s no timetable for him to make his next rehab start.
It’s a frustrating turn of events for Houston, as the club’s rotation has been beleaguered by injuries all season. Right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy and J.P. France are all done for the year after undergoing season-ending surgeries last month, and of the three starters on the IL expected to return this year Garcia appears to be the closest. This latest delay figures to leave the Astros to make the best out of a patchwork rotation featuring Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Jake Bloss, and Spencer Arrighetti. Aside from Valdez, only Brown entered the 2024 season with more than a handful of starts at the big league level on his resume and only Blanco has posted an ERA better than league average.
Of course, the return of Garcia would be a welcome one even if the Astros rotation was in better shape. After all, the 27-year-old righty sports a career 3.61 ERA and 3.79 FIP in parts of four seasons in the majors. Garcia had solidly worked his way into the middle of Houston’s rotation prior to the Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2023 campaign, and he figures to pitch key innings for Houston in the second half so long as he can return to action healthy and effective sometime after the All-Star break.
The Astros got more positive injury news regarding the status of right-hander Justin Verlander, who’s been on the IL with a neck issue for the past month. The future Hall of Famer returned to the mound today, however, and while he was initially scheduled for a light bullpen session of just 10 to 15 pitches, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports that he threw a 25-pitch session that included all of his pitches without any issues. That’s a major step forward for the right-hander, and while it’s unclear when the veteran will return to the majors Chandler Rome of The Athletic relayed that he’s expecting to throw another bullpen during the All-Star break.
Injuries have limited Verlander to just ten starts so far this year, and he’s struggled (at least by his own lofty standards) when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.95 ERA that’s more or less in line with league average and a worrying 4.99 FIP. While his 21.3% strikeout rate and his 7.1% walk rate are both more or less in line with the numbers he posted last year, Verlander’s career-worst 24.8% groundball rate and elevated 9% barrel rate are both cause for concern, and his fastball’s velocity is down half a tick from last year.
Looking toward the positional side of things, outfielder Kyle Tucker provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about the shin contusion that’s sidelined him for six weeks now. Tucker told reporters that he’s advanced to throwing on the field and is hoping to return “sometime at the beginning of the second half,” though he didn’t put a specific timetable on his return and cautioned that he’s still feeling some discomfort in his leg.
While the Astros have surged in Tucker’s absence with an excellent 23-11 record since he was placed on the shelf, the club is surely eager to add another star bat back into the lineup alongside Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Tucker caught fire early in the season prior to his injury and headed to the injured list with a scorching .266/.395/.584 slash line in 60 games despite a lackluster .245 BABIP. If he can contribute anything even close to that upon his return later this summer, it would be a massive boost to the club as they work to catch a division-leading Mariners club that they trail by just one game entering play today.
Brewers Designate Dallas Keuchel For Assignment
The Brewers have designated veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel for assignment, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel went on to relay that right-hander Joel Kuhnel has had his contract selected and will take Keuchel’s place on the 40-man and active rosters.
Keuchel, 36, was acquired by Milwaukee in a trade with the Mariners late last month while the veteran southpaw was on a minor league deal with Seattle. He was added to the Brewers’ roster shortly thereafter and ended up making four starts for the club. He posted a 5.40 ERA with just 11 strikeouts against eight walks in his 16 2/3 innings of work for the club, and yesterday surrendered three runs on eight hits in just three innings of work in a start against the Nationals. The Brewers will now have seven days to either work out a trade involving Keuchel or attempt to pass him through waivers. The 13-year MLB veteran has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency after clearing waivers, if he so chooses.
While the veteran struggled during his time in Milwaukee, it’s certainly possible that his time in the Mariners’ system could get him another look at the big league level with a pitching-hungry club. After all, the lefty posted a solid 3.93 ERA in 13 starts that becomes even more impressive when you consider the fact that he was pitching in the inflated offensive environment of Triple-A’s Pacific Coast League. While he struck out just 15.6% of opponents in those games, his ability to generate grounders was as impressive as ever as he posted a 59.5% groundball rate. With clubs around the game in the hunt for starting pitching prior to the deadline and few clear sellers, it’s at least feasible that a team in need of pitching could give Keuchel a look after the impending All Star break in hopes he could provide depth in the event they’re unable to land a more impactful arm.
As for Kuhnel, the 29-year-old first made his big league debut 2019 and has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons at this point, though his only extended opportunity came with Cincinnati back in 2022. The results left much to be desired, as Kuhnel posting a 6.36 ERA in 58 innings of work that was 31% worse than league average by ERA+. Despite that, underlying metrics actually thought the righty pitched fairly well that year as his FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA were all better than average thanks to his solid 22% strikeout rate, an excellent 5.5% walk rate, and an above-average 52.2% groundball rate.
Those solid peripheral numbers haven’t enough to get him consistent work in the years since then, however, as he’s pitched just 15 innings in the big leagues since the start of the 2023 season. Those limited opportunities generally haven’t gone well, as Kuhnel has posted a ghastly 7.20 ERA and a 5.84 FIP in that limited big league playing time. Even so, both the Blue Jays and Brewers have added Kuhnel to their 40-man roster this year after he was designated for assignment by the Astros early in the season. He’s yet to appear in the big leagues with either of those clubs, although now he’ll get the opportunity to do with with Milwaukee after having his contract selected by the Brewers for the second time this year. The righty’s numbers at the Triple-A level have been excellent this year, as he’s posted a 2.30 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of work despite a lackluster 15% strikeout rate.
Latest On Garrett Crochet’s Trade Market
The White Sox’s reported desire to deal dominant youngster Garrett Crochet this summer has made the southpaw one of the most intriguing players to watch in the days leading up to the trade deadline on July 30, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale noted this morning that Chicago still intends to deal the lefty this summer even as rival GMs express uncertainty regarding whether or not a deal will come together. Nightengale goes on to note that while the Padres made a “recent” offer to the South Siders for Crochet, White Sox brass “quickly dismissed” the proposal.
This isn’t the first report to suggesting that the White Sox have been dismissive of offers from rival clubs, as reporting earlier this month suggested the Dodgers have also put forth an offer that was ultimately rejected. Still, it’s somewhat notable that San Diego’s offer for the lefty’s services was turned down given the fact that the Padres were reportedly the “most aggressive” team in their pursuit of the lefty’s services as recently as last month. It’s certainly possible that other clubs have become more aggressive in their pursuits of Crochet since then, but the news is nonetheless the latest signal that the price for the youngster’s services will be steep.
An exorbitant asking price is somewhat understandable given Crochet’s unique combination of youth, dominance, and team control. The 25-year-old has pitched to a 3.02 ERA in 107 1/3 innings of work this year with even stronger peripheral numbers, as he leads the majors with a whopping 150 strikeouts. That’s good for a 35.2% strikeout rate, and Crochet complements that heavy dose of K’s with a microscopic 5.4% walk rate and a strong 45.7% groundball rate. A starting pitcher with that sort of elite talent is extremely hard to come by in any case, much less at an age when some pitchers have yet to even establish themselves at the majors and with team control that runs through the end of the 2026 season.
While there’s been questions about whether or not Crochet will be able to remain in the rotation down the stretch after already more than doubling his total number of innings as a professional in the first half, the lefty would surely be a valuable asset even in a bullpen role for the second half this year before returning to the rotation in 2025. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise that Crochet is reportedly receiving widespread interest from clubs around the league. That should allow the White Sox to set the asking price on his services quite high, particularly given the fact that they could try to deal him again this winter if talks end up stalling out.
One clue as to where the Sox may set the bar regarding Crochet is that Nightengale suggests Chicago is “insisting” on Yankees outfield prospect Spencer Jones as part of the return for the lefty’s services in negotiations with New York. Jones, the Yankees’ first round pick in the 2022 draft, was a frequently discussed prospect this winter as the club resisted requests for him to be included in deals with various trade partners throughout the winter. He entered the season as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport, with some services even ranking him in the top 30 or higher. A slow start to the season at Double-A saw most outlets settle on placing Jones in the top-75 range earlier this year, though he’s heated up in recent weeks and may have seen his prospect stock start to rebound a bit. Either way, reporting last week indicated that the Yankees remain unwilling to part with Jones, suggesting that a deal between New York and Chicago is unlikely unless one side or the other folds regarding the hulking outfield prospect.
Rockies Activate German Marquez From 60-Day IL
TODAY: The Rockies announced that Marquez has been activated from the IL. Right-hander Angel Chivilli has been optioned to Double-A to make room for Marquez on the active roster.
July 13: The Rockies are set to activate right-hander German Marquez from the 60-day injured list tomorrow, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Mike Fitzpatrick of The Denver Post) last night. Colorado’s 40-man roster currently stands at 39, meaning the club will only need to make a corresponding active roster move to activate Marquez unless they add another player to the 40-man prior to activating him.
Marquez, 29, made it just four starts into the 2023 season before requiring Tommy John surgery in early May of last year. At the time, the former All Star was a pending free agent, but the sides hammered out a two-year, $20MM extension last September that has allowed Marquez to complete his rehab in a familiar organization and re-establish his value ahead of free agency, which now looms after the 2025 season.
For the Rockies, the move allowed them to retain a player who has shown the rare ability to pitch well while calling Coors Field home. From 2018 to 2021, Marquez posted a 4.22 ERA that was 17% better than average by ERA+ and an even stronger 3.70 FIP across 106 starts for the Rockies. That’s the version of Marquez the club surely hopes they’ll be adding back to their rotation tomorrow, although it’s worth noting that the righty’s 2022 season demonstrated some cause for concern as he posted an eye-popping 6.70 ERA in 16 starts at Coors despite an excellent 3.34 ERA in 15 starts on the road.
Marquez is slated to take the ball tomorrow in a start against the Mets in New York, and is expected to throw between 75 and 90 pitches in his return to the mound. The Rockies, with a dismal 33-62 record this season, will not be factoring into the postseason picture in 2024 regardless of how well the right-hander performs in his return to action. With that being said, it’s at least feasible that a strong start from the righty over the next few weeks could impact the club’s thinking ahead of the trade deadline on July 30. If Marquez can return to the club’s rotation looking healthy and effective, it would add a quality starter to a rotation that could make the club more comfortable dealing away pieces from its rotation.
Earlier this summer, the Rockies were reportedly listening on offers for right-hander Cal Quantrill and lefty Austin Gomber while also receiving interest in righty Ryan Feltner. Quantrill has pitched to solid results in his first season with Colorado, posting 4.13 ERA (110 ERA+) in 19 starts despite a lackluster 4.77 FIP thanks in part to a career-best 46.4% groundball rate. Gomber, meanwhile, has posted a 4.61 ERA that’s essentially league average (99 ERA+) after adjusting for park factors. Feltner has been the least impressive of the three in terms of on-field results with a lackluster 5.02 ERA, although more advanced metrics such as SIERA (4.13) and xERA (4.04) look much more favorably upon him thanks to his microscopic 6.5% walk rate and an ability to limit hard contact.
Dealing any of those controllable players would be tough for a rotation that already has the league’s worst ERA, but if Marquez can prove himself capable of returning to the top of the club’s rotation that would go a long way to helping round out a rotation that already parted ways with right-hander Dakota Hudson earlier this month.
Cubs Reportedly Interested In Danny Jansen
The Cubs have expressed interest in Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s unclear how serious discussions between the sides have become at this point.
It would hardly be a surprise to see Toronto part ways with Jansen prior to the deadline on July 30. The club has experienced a freefall in the standings that has seen the club drop to just 43-52, 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That massive deficit in the standings has left the club’s playoff odds (according to Fangraphs) at just 1.6%. Given those dismal odds, it’s only natural that the club is reportedly “expressing openness” to moving on from rental players this summer.
Jansen, 29, is one of the club’s more intriguing rental players. Initially drafted in the 16th round back in 2013 by the Blue Jays, the Wisconsin native made his big league debut with Toronto back in 2018 and generally struggled at the plate early in his career. He carried a lackluster .208/.297/.370 slash line (79 wRC+) into the 2021 season. Fortunately, in 2021 Toronto began to lean less heavily on Jansen behind the plate due to the arrival of youngster Alejandro Kirk. From 2021-23, Jansen enjoyed a resurgence on offense while being counted on for an average of just 76 games a year. In 754 trips to the plate across those three seasons, he saw his wRC+ jump to 121 as he slashed a solid .237/.317/.487 while clubbing 43 home runs.
Early in the 2024 campaign, Jansen appeared to be on track for the best season of his career as he was slashing an incredible .287/.371/.535 through the end of May. He struck out just 15.5% of the time in those 116 trips to the plate while walking at a 12.1% clip and crushing five homers. Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career, that figured to make him an extremely attractive free agent this winter, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored for Front Office subscribers at the time.
Things have come off the rails a bit for Jansen since then, however. In 91 trips to the plate since the start of June, Jansen has posted a lackluster .141/.253/.218 across 26 games. An eye-popping .164 BABIP that’s all but certain to enjoy some positive regression indicates that there’s some reason for optimism when looking at Jansen’s numbers during this recent slump, as does the fact that Jansen’s plate discipline numbers (18.9% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate) remain impressive. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Jays getting anywhere close to the trade return they might have had Jansen maintained his early season production now that he’s hitting a roughly league average .223/.319/.397 (103 wRC+) for the season.
Even so, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs would be interested in Jansen’s services. The club has struggled somewhat on offense this year with a collective wRC+ of 102 that ranks 16th in the majors this year, even in spite of excellent seasons from corner bats Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch. The most obvious culprit for those struggles at the dish in Chicago is the players they’re using behind it, as Cubs catchers have slashed a pathetic .180/.227/.264 this year. That translates to a wRC+ of 39 that ranks 29th in the majors ahead of only the lowly Marlins.
It’s possible the Cubs would be willing to stomach that brutal offense production if they were getting elite defense behind the plate, but youngster Miguel Amaya has been worth -2 runs according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, and veteran Yan Gomes was performing even worse before being replaced by Tomas Nido after he was released by the Mets last month. Nido has looked good behind the plate but has hit a ghastly .135/.154/.189 in 13 games with the Cubs. He doesn’t have much of a track record to lean on, either, as a seven-game stint in 2020 is the only time in his career he’s posted a wRC+ higher than 86.
Those woes behind the plate make the Cubs an obvious fit for Jansen’s services, although it’s fair to wonder if Chicago will be in position to buy by the time the deadline rolls around. After all, the team is currently five games below .500 (46-51) and in dead last in the NL Central. They’re only 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but Fangraphs gives them playoff odds of just 8.7%. While that’s substantially higher than the aforementioned odds Toronto has, it still suggests a postseason berth is a remote possibility for Chicago, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them pivot towards selling if they struggle coming out of the All Star break.
Should the Cubs wind up buying, Jansen isn’t the only Blue Jays hitter the club has reported interest in. Last month, it was reported that Chicago was having internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the Blue Jays decided to sell. Of course, that reporting came on the heels of GM Ross Atkins very plainly saying that dealing Guerrero, who is controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign, “doesn’t make any sense” for the team to do. While it’s at least theoretically possible the club’s front office changes its stance before the deadline, that possibility seems remote at best as things stand.