The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Competition
With left-hander Shota Imanaga poised to join Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks in the Cubs’ rotation in place of Marcus Stroman this season after the veteran righty signed with the Yankees last month, one spot remains open in the club’s starting rotation with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp for Spring Training next week. While it’s not impossible to imagine a surprise trade for or signing of an arm such as Shane Bieber (who the Cubs were connected to earlier this winter) or Jordan Montgomery, all indications point toward the Cubs turning their attention towards a reunion with Cody Bellinger at this point in the offseason.
Should Chicago enter the 2024 campaign with only their internal rotation options, here’s a look at who could be under consideration to join the starting five:
The 34-year-old left-hander, in some ways, appears to be the obvious choice for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Signed to a two-year, $19MM contract last winter, Smyly started 23 games for Chicago last year and enjoyed a great deal of success early in the season, including a 10-strikeout game in late April where the southpaw came fell just four outs short of a perfect game. Through 15 starts, Smyly had a strong 3.38 ERA and a decent FIP of 4.33, though his strikeout rate of just 19.9% raised some eyebrows.
Unfortunately for Smyly, the wheels came off from there for him. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 6.88 FIP in 35 innings of work across his next eight appearances and found himself demoted to the bullpen, where he found some solid success in short relief. In sixteen relief appearances from August 13 onward, Smyly dominated with a 1.13 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work and a 33.7% strikeout rate. Those strong relief outings didn’t translate to better performance out of the rotation, however, as Smyly surrendered 10 runs in just four innings of work across his final two starts of the season on August 22 and October 1.
Given Smyly’s superlative results out of the bullpen late in the season and his pronounced struggles as a member of the rotation, it seems unlikely that the Cubs would offer Smyly the inside track to the fifth starter role entering the 2024 campaign, though it’s possible he could earn the role through a combination of strong performance this spring and injuries to other options.
Wesneski won a camp battle for the club’s fifth starter spot last spring, beating out veteran right-hander Adrian Sampson for the role. Wesneski’s opportunity in the rotation came on the heels of a stellar debut late in the 2022 season, shortly after Chicago acquired him from the Yankees at the trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. In six appearances down the stretch for the Cubs that year, Wesneski dominated to a 2.18 ERA and 3.20 FIP while striking out 25% of batters faced.
Unfortunately, Wesneski’s 2023 audition for a rotation job did not go nearly as well, as he allowed a 5.33 ERA and 5.96 FIP across 50 2/3 innings of work over 11 appearances (10 starts) to open the season. Wesneski was moved to multi-inning relief shortly there after and would make just one start (which lasted only two innings) the rest of the season, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work over his final 23 appearances. It’s not hard to imagine Wesneski returning to the starting rotation at some point in the future, as the 26-year-old remains under club control through the 2028 campaign, though it appears likely he has been surpassed by other youngsters on the rotational depth chart for the time being.
The most experienced arm on this list outside of Smyly, the 26-year-old Assad made his big league debut in 2022 and pitched decently in a nine-appearance cup of coffee where he posted a 3.11 ERA and 4.49 FIP over 37 2/3 innings of work. Assad competed with Sampson and Wesneski for the fifth starter role out of camp last year, though his bid for the role was complicated by a detour to participate in the World Baseball Classic for Team Mexico.
Assad’s time in the tournament saw him dazzle with 5 2/3 scoreless innings of work as a multi-inning reliever. He struck out six on just two hits and a walk while touching 97 with his heater. The strong performance in a relief role led the Cubs to enter the season with Assad in that role, though he struggled to a 9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 innings across his first three appearances for Chicago last year, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A.
Upon returning to the majors in early May, Assad dominated out of the bullpen for the next three months, posting a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work across 16 appearances despite a 4.01 FIP. The Cubs then moved him to the rotation for the majority of the stretch run, and the right-hander held his own in the role with a 2.88 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 59 1/3 innings of work across the season’s final two months. Assad’s quality work in the rotation down the stretch with Chicago last summer should give him the opportunity to earn the final spot in the club’s rotation this spring, though its possible the Cubs value his versatility as a player who’s had success swinging in and out of the rotation throughout his young career.
Chicago’s first round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has the most impressive prospect pedigree of any of the club’s likely fifth starter options this spring. The southpaw has quickly climbed the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year with just 48 starts in the minor leagues under his belt, leading to some top 100 prospect buzz this winter with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranking Wicks as the #41 prospect in the entire sport, just five spots behind Kyle Harrison of the Giants. That impressive ranking is largely backed up by Wicks’ performance on the field. In 20 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA in 91 1/3 innings of work while punching out 26.5% of batters faced.
The lefty’s major league debut went nearly as well, as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.95 FIP in 33 innings of work across his first six starts in the big leagues, though he struck out just 17% of batters faced during that time. Unfortunately, Wicks suffered the first blow-up start of his big league career in his final start of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits and one walk in just 1 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers. That left him with a uninspiring 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP across his first taste of big league action, though he did generate grounders at a solid 46.8% clip during that time.
Given the success he’s flashed in the majors and his prospect pedigree, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs hand Wicks the keys to the final spot in Chicago’s rotation this spring, though its possible his low strikeout rate in the majors and ugly final start last year lead the club to believe the 24-year-old southpaw, who has pitched just 33 innings at the Triple-A level to this point in his career, needs more time to develop in the minors before joining the rotation full time.
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The aforementioned four arms appear to be the most likely internal options for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot to open the season, though there are at handful of dark horse options worth a mention as well. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton was the club’s first round pick in the 2022 draft and is generally regarded even better than Wicks after he dominated the lower minors to the tune of a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts last year. With that being said, the 22-year-old has no experience above the Double-A level, where he made just six starts last year, and has not yet been stretched out to the level required for a big league starting pitcher as he topped 75 pitches in an outing just three times last year.
Ben Brown is another prospect who has gotten top-100 buzz for the Cubs. Unlike Horton, he’s already on the 40-man roster and has reached the Triple-A level, though he struggled to a 5.33 ERA at the level last year while walking 15.8% of batters faced at the level. Porter Hodge and Caleb Kilian are two other starting pitching prospects already on Chicago’s 40-man roster, though Hodge has yet to pitch above the Double-A level and Kilian has struggled to a 12.42 ERA across six appearances in the majors, leaving each far more likely to open the season in the minors.
Nick Gordon Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Twins
Utilityman Nick Gordon has lost his arbitration hearing against the Twins, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll receive a $900K salary in 2024 after filing at $1.25MM. MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz projected Gordon for a $1MM salary in arbitration this winter, though arbiters have to pick between the numbers filed by player and team and cannot choose a midpoint figure.
Gordon, 28, qualified for arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason as a Super Two player. The top 22% of players with between two and three years of service time are given Super Two status, which grants them an additional year of arbitration eligibility. The 28-year-old’s first trip through arbitration this winter comes on the heels of a lost season in 2023 where Gordon did not appear in the majors after May 17 due to a fractured shin he sustained after fouling a ball off his leg during that day’s game against the Dodgers. Gordon struggled to a .176/.185/.319 slash line during his 34-game stint with the club last season, though he had begun to heat up somewhat with an .805 OPS and six extra base hits in his previous 15 games entering the day of the injury.
The lost season in 2023 belies the breakout season Gordon enjoyed in 2022. After being selected fifth overall in the 2014 draft, Gordon was a mainstay on top prospect lists for several years but stalled out at the Triple-A level in 2018, where he’d remain until getting his first crack at a major league role in 2021. While Gordon’s numbers in a bench role that season were hardly eye-opening, he nonetheless entered the 2022 campaign as a member of the club’s Opening Day roster. Gordon opened the season as a part-time player who mainly played left and center field, but eventually grew into more of a regular role with the club after slashing .302/.348/.535 across a 31-game stretch from late May until early July.
After that hot stretch, Gordon fell back to Earth a bit as he slashed a decent .266/.315/.425 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers coincided with a noticeable bump in playing time; while Gordon started just 55 of the club’s 94 contests prior to the All Star break, he drew 58 starts across the 69 regular season games the club played following the break. Altogether, Gordon stepped to the plate 443 times in 2022 while appearing at every position on the diamond except for first base and catcher. In doing so, the switch-hitter slashed a respectable .272/.316/.427 that was good for a 111 wRC+.
Turning back to the coming campaign, the Twins will enjoy some short-term savings on Gordon’s 2024 salary, while the utilityman will face somewhat reduced earning power in future trips through arbitration due to the lower starting point being used as a base for raises in future trips through arbitration, which he is slated to go through three more times before he’s schedule to hit free agency following the 2027 season. Updates on Gordon’s health were relatively few and far between throughout the 2023 campaign after he was placed on the 60-day injured list back in May, but he figures to be ready for Spring Training and enter the season on the club’s bench alongside the likes of Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro.
Gordon’s hearing was the only one scheduled for the Twins this winter, though six more cases are slated to be heard around the league next week. Of course, some of the players and clubs remaining could agree to a deal to avoid a hearing entirely, as Adolis Garcia and Jonathan India did earlier this week with the Rangers and Reds, respectively. While most clubs operate under a “file and trial” system where they don’t hold contract discussions after last month’s deadline to file salary figures for the 2024 campaign, that moratorium on negotiations typically doesn’t apply to multi-year deals like the two-year pacts India and Garcia both signed. Players have enjoyed some considerable collective success to this point in the process, winning seven of the ten hearings that have taken place to this point.
NL West Notes: Kershaw, Peralta, Baker
Longtime face of the franchise Clayton Kershaw reunited with the Dodgers earlier this week on a two-year deal, ending the uncertainty that lingered surrounding the southpaw’s future throughout the offseason. Kershaw recently spoke to reporters, including Juan Toribio of MLB.com, regarding the difficult decisions he had to make this offseason regarding surgery and his future as a player.
As relayed by Toribio, Kershaw noted that thoughts of retirement weighed heavily on him for the first time in his career, and that he took his time deciding whether or not to undergo shoulder surgery, which he indicated was necessary to continue his career but wouldn’t have been required from him to partake in day-to-day activities such as catch with his children. Toribio added that Kershaw’s difficult start against the Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the NLDS, where he surrendered six runs while recording just one out, played a role in the southpaw’s decision to return to the Dodgers for a 17th season in the majors.
Toribio indicates that potentially parting ways with the only club he’s pitched for as a professional and pitching for his hometown Rangers held some appeal for Kershaw, but that ultimately the Dodgers’ flurry of activity this offseason played a role in convincing the veteran lefty to remain in L.A. for the 2024 campaign.
“This offseason has been pretty amazing to watch, honestly. There’s definitely a part of me that wanted to be a part of that,” Kershaw told reporters, as relayed by Toribio.
Kershaw isn’t expected to return to a big league mound until the late summer, with Toribio noting that “sometime in July” is the earliest he could pitch for L.A. in 2024. The left-hander is currently slated to ramp his throwing progression up sometime next month and will join the team on homestands during his rehab. The club’s offseason overhaul of their pitching staff leaves them with plenty of options to hold down the fort in the starting rotation during Kershaw’s absence. Though right-hander Walker Buehler is expected to start the season on the injured list, offseason additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and James Paxton are currently slated to pitch in the rotation alongside sophomore righty Bobby Miller and an addition young arm such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone come the start of the regular season.
More from around the NL West…
- The Padres brought in left-hander Wandy Peralta on a four-year deal earlier this week, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that this is hardly the first time the club has pursued the veteran southpaw. According to Lin, San Diego’s interest in Peralta dates back to the 2023 trade deadline. At the time, the lefty was subject to some trade speculation as the Yankees toyed with dealing pending free agents due to them sitting at fifth place in the AL East at the time of the trade deadline despite a decent 55-51 record. Ultimately, of course, no deal came together for the lefty, who went on to struggle to a 4.30 ERA and 6.46 FIP down the stretch last year. Looking ahead to 2024, Peralta figures to be part of San Diego’s late inning mix alongside the likes of Yuki Matsui and Robert Suarez as the bullpen looks to bounce back from the loss of Josh Hader earlier this winter.
- The Giants hired recently-retired Astros manager Dusty Baker in a special assistant role last month, and the longtime skipper spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) in Houston recently about his move to San Francisco. Baker indicated that while Houston remains a “second home” to him, a key factor in his decision to join the Giants is the club’s proximity to Sacramento, his hometown. “Getting older, you start thinking about enjoying your life, enjoying your grandchildren,” Baker said, as relayed by McTaggart. “But I still have something, you know, to give to the game and make a living in a part-time capacity.” Baker’s hiring in San Francisco is a homecoming in more ways than one, as he served as manager of the Giants for ten seasons, from 1993 to 2002. He won three NL Manager of the Year awards throughout his tenure with the Giants and led the team to a World Series appearance in his final year with the club.
Yankees, Dodgers Had Interest In Josh Hader Prior To Astros Deal
New Astros relief ace Josh Hader made an appearance on Foul Territory earlier this week during which he discussed his free agency and some of the other teams that pursued him prior to him signing in Houston on a five-year deal last month. Among those teams, Hader noted, were the Dodgers and Yankees. Hader went on to indicate that while those clubs weren’t the only ones to express interest in him throughout the offseason, no other suitor matched the aggressiveness of the Astros, whose $95MM offer broke the record for present-day value for a relief pitcher.
It’s hardly a shock that the Dodgers and Yankees both checked in on the 29-year-old hurler this winter. A five-time All Star and three-time NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader broke into the majors with the Brewers in 2017 and posted a dominant 2.08 ERA across 47 2/3 innings of work during that rookie campaign. The lefty hasn’t looked back since and has posted an incredible 2.50 ERA and 2.73 FIP while collecting 165 saves across 349 appearances during his career. Hader leads all relievers with an incredible 42.2% strikeout rate since his career began back in 2017, and is coming off an otherworldly platform season where he posted a microscopic 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances.
Both clubs were known to be interested in adding relief help this winter and certainly had the financial resources available to get a deal done, though they ultimately opted to look elsewhere rather than offer Hader the sort of nine-figure deal that would’ve topped Houston’s offer. Hader’s deal with the Astros served as a catalyst for the rest of the high-leverage relief market, and upwards of a dozen bullpen arms with late-inning experience have come off the market since then including the likes of Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, and David Robertson. In that frenzy of activity, the Dodgers came away with right-hander Ryan Brasier, who dominated to a 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances with the club last year. Meanwhile, the Yankees swung a deal to acquire southpaw Caleb Ferguson from L.A. on the same day the Dodgers landed Brasier.
Both Brasier and Ferguson are quality arms with plenty of late-inning experience under their belts, though neither has the sort of pedigree offered by Hader. While it’s not impossible to imagine either club making another addition to their relief mix before Opening Day, the surefire options still available in free agency are somewhat few and far between. Former Astros right-hander Ryne Stanek is among the options remaining and sports a solid 2.90 ERA over the last three seasons, though the market is largely dominated by bounceback candidates such as Brad Hand and Mychal Givens at this stage of the offseason.
Should either the Dodgers or Yankees decide to further bolster their relief corps in the coming weeks, one possible option who still lingers on the market would be Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen, who the club has reportedly shown a willingness to shop this winter. The Dodgers were connected to Jansen, who spent the first twelve seasons of his career with the club before signing with the Braves prior to the 2022 season, earlier in the offseason. The same can’t be said of the Yankees, though it is worth pointing out that the longtime AL East rivals have shown an increased willingness to trade with each other in recent years, including a deal that sent Alex Verdugo to the Bronx earlier this winter. As a 14-year MLB veteran with 420 career saves and a 3.63 ERA across 51 appearances in Boston last year, Jansen would provide an upgrade to the relief mix of either club, though he’s owed a hefty $16MM in the final year of his contract this season.
James Paxton Discusses Dodgers Contract, Physical
Newly-signed Dodgers southpaw James Paxton spoke to reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) today regarding his recent one-year deal with the club and the physical he underwent that led to the lefty’s guarantee dropping from $11MM to just $7MM on the deal. Paxton noted during the scrum that the reduction in the contract’s guarantee wasn’t due to any one specific injury concern the Dodgers had but instead was due to the combination of his history with Tommy John surgery, which kept him away from a big league mound for almost two entire seasons, and the knee issue that ended his 2023 campaign in early September.
“I’m an older player now, and I’m not perfect anymore,” Paxton told reporters, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “…So there’s things that have kind of built up over the years.”
In spite of the concerns that stemmed from his physical, Paxton indicated that he has “no doubt” that he’ll be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign, adding that he feels “strong and ready” as he enters camp. Per his revised, incentive-laden deal, Paxton will receive a $2MM bonus for being on the roster for either the start of the Korea series against the Padres, which begins on March 20, or the club’s stateside opener against the Cardinals the following week.
Paxton, 35, has been held back by injuries frequently throughout his career. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 37th overall selection in the 2009 draft, the southpaw made his big league debut as a member of the Mariners back in 2013 and immediately impressed with a 1.50 ERA in a four-start cup of coffee. Through his age-30 season, Paxton regularly impressed when he was on the mound, showing the quality results of a #2 starter with a 3.50 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Paxton was limited to just 733 innings of work across those seven seasons by injury woes, which would only intensify as the calendar flipped to 2020. From 2020-22, Paxton managed just six appearances and 21 2/3 innings due to injuries.
The big lefty returned to the mound as a member of the Red Sox in May of last year and early in the season appeared to have made a triumphant return to the dominant form of his younger days. Through his first ten starts of the season, Paxton posted an impressive 2.73 ERA over 56 innings of work with a whopping 29% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the wheels came off for the veteran southpaw after the All Star break as he struggled to a 6.98 ERA and 6.16 FIP in 40 innings of work across his final nine starts of the season before he was shut down for the season with the aforementioned bout of knee inflammation following a start where Paxton allowed six runs while recording just four outs.
After that brutal series of struggles down the stretch, Paxton finished the 2023 campaign with a 4.50 ERA that was almost exactly league average by measure of ERA+. While the form the lefty flashed early in the season with Boston last year would make him a playoff-caliber arm, Paxton need only repeat his full-season performance from 2023 to be a useful piece for a Dodgers club looking to add veteran innings to a rotation that figures to be dominated by young starters with little to no big league experience like Bobby Miller and Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as players with substantial injury histories of their own like Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler.
That rotation mix offers little in the way of certainty, but young arms like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove appear well-positioned to help out as needed throughout the season. An opportunity seems likely to be immediately available for those youngsters as both Buehler and Kershaw are expected to open the season on the injured list, though club officials have indicated that Buehler’s stay on the shelf could be a relatively short one.
The Opener: Padres, Signings, Sanchez
With Spring Training now partially underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Padres camp to open:
The Dodgers kicked off Spring Training for their club ahead of the rest of the league yesterday as they look to prepare for the Seoul Series, when the Dodgers and Padres will kick off the 2024 regular season with a two-game set in South Korea starting on March 20. This weekend, San Diego will follow suit and open camp early to give their players a chance to get a head start on their spring preparations. The 60-day injured list will also become available to the Padres once camp officially opens, and while the club does have at least one player who could make use of it, the club still has four open spots on its 40-man roster for the time being.
2. Signings to be made official:
The Brewers agreed to terms with catcher Gary Sanchez on a one-year deal earlier this week in a move that will give the club a strong tandem behind the plate between Sanchez and 2024 All-Star William Contreras. Once the agreement becomes official, the Brewers will have to clear space on their 40-man roster. This could be accomplished simply by designating a player for assignment, though teams will occasionally attempt to work out a minor trade to clear roster space instead, thereby recouping some value while still freeing up a roster spot.
Sanchez’s signing isn’t the only one that needs to be made official around the league. The Rays’ deal with Phil Maton, the Dodgers’ newest pact with Clayton Kershaw, and the Blue Jays’ agreement with Yariel Rodriguez all have yet to be made official and will also require corresponding moves. Rodriguez has reportedly been delayed by visa issues. The Dodgers can simply put a player such as Tony Gonsolin on the 60-day IL to make room for Kershaw when necessary (and place Kershaw himself on the 60-day IL if/when another spot is needed for future moves), and the Rays have a similar path to clear space for Maton should they wait until camp opens next week to make his deal official. Any of Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) or Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) could open the season on Tampa Bay’s 60-day IL.
3. Sanchez throwing for teams:
Right-hander Aaron Sanchez is throwing a bullpen for interested teams today, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. A former All-Star, Sanchez posted a 3.01 ERA and 3.98 FIP across his first four seasons in the majors but has struggled to a 5.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP since the start of the 2018 season amid battles with injuries, culminating in him not appearing in the majors at all last year as he split time between the Twins’ and Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliates. Sanchez is still just 31 years old and flashed big league caliber production as recently as the 2021 season, when he pitched to a 3.06 ERA in 35 1/3 innings with the Giants. Given his relative youth and previous success, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a pitching-needy club like the Padres take a flier on the right-hander this spring, though he’ll presumably be limited to minor league offers.
The Opener: Spring Training, Kershaw, Manfred
On the heels of some early morning news out of St. Petersburg, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Spring Training begins! (For one club):
Dodgers players are reporting to camp today, marking the official beginning of Spring Training for the club. While most clubs are reporting next week, L.A. and San Diego are both reporting early in preparation for the Seoul Series, where the Dodgers and Padres will kick off the 2024 regular season with a two-game set in South Korea. That series is set to begin on March 20, just over a week before Opening Day for the other 28 clubs occurs back in the states on March 28. With the Dodgers’ spring ending a week early, the club is kicking preparations for the season off ahead of time as well to ensure its players get a full Spring Training.
It’s been an exciting offseason for Dodgers fans, highlighted by the club’s acquisition of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Looking beyond their most famous acquisition, L.A. overhauled its rotation by adding Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and James Paxton to a group that already featured the likes of Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. They also transformed the outfield mix with the additions of Teoscar Hernandez and Manuel Margot, as well as a reunion with Jason Heyward.
2. Kershaw to undergo physical:
Longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw returned to the Dodgers earlier this week on a two-year deal earlier this week. The tentative pact between the sides is pending a physical, which will take place today. After pitching through shoulder woes last season to post a strong 2.46 ERA in 131 2/3 innings of work, Kershaw went under the knife back in November. Assuming the contract becomes official post-physical, the club will need to open up a 40-man roster spot for Kershaw going forward.
Fortunately, with camp opening for the club today, the Dodgers will now be able to place players on the 60-day injured list, which removes them from the 40-man roster for the length of their stay on the IL. With Kershaw not expected back on a pitcher’s mound until August at the earliest, the veteran figures to be placed on the 60-day IL himself alongside righties Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery last August) and Dustin May (Tommy John revision and flexor surgery last July).
3. Manfred to hold press conference:
As noted by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is expected to speak with reporters later today following the conclusion of the owners’ meetings in Florida. The comments from Manfred come not only at the cusp between the offseason and the return of baseball, but also amid a push for MLB players to participate in the 2028 Summer Olympics. Prior to the World Series back in October, Manfred declined to discuss potential rule changes for the 2024 season, though he noted that any changes would be smaller than the ones implemented last year. 2023 saw the league implement a pitch clock, larger bases, and infield shift restrictions among other rules.
Rays Extend Erik Neander, Kevin Cash
8:30am: The Rays have formally announced the pair of contract extensions.
“I believe there are none better in baseball,” owner Stuart Sternberg said of his president and manager. “What we’ve all accomplished together has been remarkable, and the best is yet to come.”
8:00am: The Rays have signed president of baseball operations Erik Neander and manager Kevin Cash to long-term contract extensions, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, with an announcement of the deals expected later today. The specifics of the deals are not yet known, though Topkin says they’ll run beyond the 2028 season, when the club is slated to move into a new stadium in St. Petersburg.
The pair’s tenure at the top of the Rays organization has been a resounding success. While Cash has been managing the club since 2015, Neander became the club’s top baseball operations executive during the 2017-18 offseason. He’d previously served as the senior vice president of baseball operations and general manager under then-president Matthew Silverman, but Silverman moved to the business side of the operation and ceded baseball autonomy to Neander.
From 2018 onward, the Rays have posted a winning record in each season with five postseason appearances, including a trip to the World Series in 2020. Overall, the club has enjoyed a 511-359 record under the duo’s guidance, good for a .587 winning percentage.
All that winning has come in spite of resources that pale in comparison to the arsenals available to other perennial contenders. The club’s payroll reached an all-time high of just under $84MM (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) back in 2022, at which point the team ranked 25th in the majors in terms of player payroll. The club’s payroll ranked 26th in the majors in 2021, and has sat in the bottom three among all major league clubs every other season since Neander took over baseball operations. That’s left the club to occasionally part ways with top talents such as Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in spite of the team’s consistent success, though those losses have been offset by the club’s ability to identify talent (both in trade partners and in the draft), a subsequent perennially strong farm system and success in developing talent at the major league level.
There’s been a fair bit of turnover in the Tampa Bay front office over the years, as rival teams frequently target Rays executives when seeking to reshape their own baseball operations outfits — hopeful of emulating the team’s constant success (both in terms of on-field play and player development). Neander was once a top lieutenant for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman in Tampa Bay, before he was hired away by the Dodgers. Neander and Chaim Bloom were key figures in running baseball ops thereafter, concurrently holding senior vice president titles, but Bloom was hired away by the Red Sox (and has since joined the Cardinals as an advisor after being dismissed in Boston). Brewers GM Matt Arnold was also hired out of the Rays ranks, and more recently now-former Rays GM Peter Bendix, who’d been No. 2 on Tampa Bay’s hierarchy behind Neander, was hired as the Marlins’ president of baseball operations.
It’s a similar story among Cash’s top coaches. A look back at the Rays’ coaching staffs over the past few seasons will reveal a smattering of names who’ve gone on to become big league managers. Pirates skipper Derek Shelton, Royals manager Matt Quatraro and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli were all on Cash’s staff at one point, as was Charlie Montoyo, who was hired away from the Rays to manage the Blue Jays but is now the White Sox’ bench coach.
That’s only a short list of the number of executives, analysts and coaches who’ve been poached by other clubs over the years. Throughout all those personnel changes, however, Neander and Cash have been constants as the Rays have continually defied expectations set by their minimal payroll and roster that often resembles an island of misfit toys. Today’s extensions ensure that this same duo will remain in place for another half decade of baseball in St. Petersburg and that Neander and Cash will help to usher in a new era of Rays baseball when they move into their new stadium in 2028.
The Opener: Altuve, Guerrero, DFA Limbo
With Spring Training just around the corner here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Astros, Altuve to hold press conference:
As noted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Astros have scheduled a press conference for this afternoon in Houston where star second baseman Jose Altuve and team leadership will be available to discuss Altuve’s five-year extension. An eight-time All Star with three batting titles, six Silver Slugger awards, a Gold Glove award, and the 2017 AL MVP award, Altuve owns a career .307/.364/.471 slash line in 13 seasons in Houston since he made his MLB debut back in 2011. The deal keeps Altuve in an Astros uniform through his age-39 season.
2. Guerrero arbitration result:
Eleven arbitration cases have yet to reach a conclusion, and among the most high-profile of the remaining cases could be nearing a decision. The Associated Press has reported that first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays went to a hearing yesterday. Guerrero filed at $19.9MM while Toronto countered at $18.05MM. Both those figures come in below MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $20.4MM, which would be a result of the 24-year-old slugger’s “down” season at the plate last year (by his lofty standards, anyhow). In 682 trips to the plate, Guerrero slashed .264/.345/.444 with 30 doubles and 26 home runs. While that’s certainly strong production, it left something to be desired after the youngster crushed the ball to the tune of a .292/.370/.539 slash line over the previous two seasons.
Yesterday saw five players sweep arbitration decisions, as right-handers Jacob Webb and Phil Bickford, outfielders Austin Hays and Taylor Ward, and utility player Mauricio Dubon all won their cases against their clubs, putting players ahead of teams 5-2 in this year’s slate of arbitration hearings.
3. Players to exit DFA Limbo:
When players are designated for assignment, they can remain in transactional limbo for up to a week while their team looks to trade them or attempts to pass them through waivers. For right-hander Declan Cronin of the Astros, outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba of the Pirates, and right-hander Zack Weiss of the Red Sox, that one-week period expires today, meaning resolutions to each player’s DFA should be announced today. All three of the aforementioned players are unable to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, meaning their club’s can retain them as non-roster depth entering the season if they pass through waivers successfully.
Cronin, 26, posted a 9.00 ERA across 11 appearances during his first season as a big leaguer last year, though he enjoyed more success at Triple-A with a 3.88 ERA in 51 2/3 innings of work. Smith-Njigba, 25 in April, came to the Pirates as part of the return in the Jameson Taillon trade and owns a .273/.366/.469 slash line at the Triple-A level, though he’s struggled badly in his first 44 trips to the plate in the majors. Weiss, 31, made his big league debut back in 2018 but had a disastrous outing for the Reds where he surrendered four runs on two walks and two homers while failing to record an out. That first cup of coffee was the only taste of major league action Weiss would get until his age-30 season four years later, when he reemerged as a member of the Angels. Since then, he’s pitched to a 3.29 ERA with a 5.27 FIP in 27 1/3 innings of work.
The Opener: Arbitration, Extensions, MLBTR Chat
As Spring Training approaches, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Arbitration hearing results expected today:
Utilityman Mauricio Dubon went to arbitration against the Astros yesterday. The 29-year-old requested a $3.5MM salary while the club countered with a $3MM figure. Dubon enjoyed a career year in 2023, hitting .278/.309/.411 while appearing in a career-high 132 games. Dubon also flashed his versatility with the glove by appearing at every position on the diamond except for pitcher and catcher, though the overwhelming majority of his playing time was split between second base and center field. Dubon’s strong performance last year led to an arbitration projection of $3.1MM from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
The Associated Press reported yesterday that Dubon figures to be one of several players to have decisions handed down today in arbitration cases. Angels outfielder Taylor Ward, Orioles outfielder Austin Hays, and Orioles right-hander Jacob Webb are all also expected to receive resolutions to the salary disputes with their respective clubs. Ward requested a salary of $4.8MM for the 2024 campaign, while the Halos countered at $4.3MM. Hays requested $6.3MM while Webb requested $1MM, with the Orioles countering at $5.85MM and $925K respectively. Teams have typically won arbitration cases more often than players have in recent years, and that’s held up so far this season with a 2-0 record over players in hearings to this point.
2. Could more extensions be on the horizon?
It’s fairly common for teams and players to start looking into extension possibilities when the calendar flips to February and players begin to report for Spring Training. A few teams have gotten a head start on such negotiations this winter: most notably, the Royals extended star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to a record-shattering deal yesterday. Looking beyond that, the Brewers and Tigers got together with top prospects Jackson Chourio and Colt Keith on pre-debut extensions earlier this winter. Could more extensions be on the horizon before Opening Day?
The Phillies reportedly plan to prioritize hammering out an extension with veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler, who’s currently slated to hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. Meanwhile, superstar outfielder-turned-first-baseman Bryce Harper has expressed interest in an extension that would allow him to remain in Philadelphia beyond the term of his current contract, which runs through his age-38 season. Looking beyond the Phillies, the Astros notably tried to extend several players last winter, finding success only with right-hander Cristian Javier. The club has reportedly not yet reopened talks with those players, though with both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman ticketed for free agency after the coming season its possible negotiations could start in the near future.
3. MLBTR Chat today:
Even as Spring Training looms, there’s plenty of boxes still unchecked on the offseason shopping lists of clubs all around the league. Are you wondering what’s next for your favorite team, or perhaps curious about what the market for a particular free agent looks like? If so, tune in this afternoon when MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosts a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after its completed.