The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think
The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.
Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.
While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.
When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.
Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.
The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.
The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.
It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.
Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.
With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.
With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.
Quick Hits: Twins, Manoah, Wright
The Twins fell to the Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS this afternoon, though that didn’t stop manager Rocco Baldelli for providing reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune) with fresh insights into the injury situations surrounding rookie Royce Lewis and outfielder Byron Buxton.
Regarding Lewis, there’s reason for optimism that the young slugger can return to the field in the near future. While he typically serves as the regular third baseman for the Twins, Lewis has been limited to DH-only duties throughout the playoffs to this point thanks to a hamstring strain he suffered in late September, with Jorge Polanco covering the hot corner in his stead. It sounds as though a potential return to third could be in Lewis’s future before the postseason is over, however, as Baldelli noted that Lewis was making progress, though he’s still currently at risk of re-aggravating his hamstring injury by returning to the diamond.
As for Buxton, the oft-injured center fielder was similarly limited to DH-only duties this year, never once taking the field on defense throughout the regular season. The injury also seemingly hampered Buxton at the plate, as he slashed just .207/.294/.438 in 85 games with the Twins this year. The club made the decision to leave Buxton off the ALDS roster, and Baldelli shed some light on that decision in what appears to be a worrisome update regarding Buxton’s ability to impact the club later in the postseason. Per Baldelli, Buxton has yet to progress to running the bases as he hopes to return to the club this postseason. With Buxton not yet running the bases, it’s hard to imagine him being healthy enough to return to defensive play in the outfield as the Twins make their push toward their first World Series championship since 1991, though the Twins have not yet ruled him out for the postseason.
More from around the major leagues…
- Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins provided an update on right-hander Alek Manoah during today’s end-of-season presser, as noted by ESPN. Manoah, clarifying some of the uncertainty that surrounded the right-hander’s status last month. Atkins noted that Manoah had received an injection to relieve discomfort in his throwing shoulder, though he added that no structural damage had been found after multiple tests. Atkins described the 2022 AL Cy Young award finalist as “motivated to get back to form,” adding that Manoah felt the injection was the best choice for a next step forward as he looks to prepare for the 2024 campaign. Manoah, 25, struggled badly in 19 starts with the Blue Jays this year, posting a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work.
- Braves right-hander Kyle Wright is set to miss the 2024 campaign due to an impending shoulder surgery, as the club announced before today’s 3-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS. Following the game, Wright spoke to reporters, including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, about his injury. Wright noted that an MRI revealed perforations on the capsule in his right shoulder, and that while the severity of the damage won’t be clear until the procedure begins, he’s certain to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. Prior to testing revealing the damage, Wright adds, the issue was something he attempted to pitch through in hopes of making Atlanta’s postseason roster.
Joe Christopher Passes Away
Former big leaguer Joe Christopher passed away earlier this week at the age of 87, as was reported by the Associated Press.
A veteran of eight big league seasons, Christopher made his big league debut in May of 1959 with the Pirates. From 1959-61, Christopher played in 141 games for Pittsburgh, slashing .244/.308/.315 in 281 trips to the plate. His trio of seasons with the Pirates included the 1960 campaign, when Pittsburgh won 95 games en route to a World Series championship. Christopher served as a pinch runner during the seven-game set against the Yankees and scored twice in the series, including during Pittsburgh’s pivotal 5-3 win in Game 5.
When the league expanded ahead of the 1962 season, the Mets selected Christopher with the fifth-overall selection in the expansion draft. He was a regular fixture in the club’s lineup through the club’s first five seasons, slashing .265/.334/.387 in 485 games. The best season both of his Mets tenure and his career as a whole came in 1964. Though the Mets lost 109 games that season, Christopher posted a strong slash line of .300/.360/.466 with 16 home runs, eight triples, and 26 doubles while acting as the club’s regular right fielder. The last season of Christopher’s career came in 1966, when he was traded from New York to Boston. Christopher ultimately played just 12 games for the Red Sox, recording one hit and two walks against four strikeouts in 15 trips to the plate.
Aside from being a member of the original Mets team in 1962 and winning a World Series in 1960, Christopher is noteworthy as one of only a handful of big league players from the U.S. Virgin Islands. He was the second player in the history of the majors to hail from there, following only Valmy Thomas, a catcher who played for the who played for the Giants in both New York and San Francisco before moving on to Philadelphia, Baltimore and Cleveland throughout his five-year career, which began in 1957.
We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Christopher’s family, friends, loved ones, fans and former teammates.
Organization Notes: Counsell, Hazen, Guardians, Yankees
When the Brewers exited the postseason following a sweep at the hands of Arizona, it led to renewed speculation regarding the future of club manager Craig Counsell. Counsell has remained steadfast in his desire to wait out the 2023 campaign before discussing a potential contract extension in Milwaukee, despite owner Mark Attanasio making clear the club’s desire to retain him for 2024 and beyond. Previous reporting has indicated that Counsell figures to continue managing in 2024, though whether or not the Wisconsin-native will remain in Milwaukee is yet to be determined.
Now, it seems as though Counsell’s fate might take longer to decide than initially expected. According to Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post, the manager’s contract with the Brewers will not expire until October 31. Sanchez adds that it appears that any club who wishes to discuss a potential job in their organization with Counsell before the end of the month will need to seek permission from the Brewers to do so. As Sanchez notes, with plenty of managerial searches ongoing around baseball this offseason, any club that decides to wait on Counsell’s potential availability runs the risk of missing out on other preferred candidates who take a job elsewhere before the end of October.
Cleveland, San Francisco and Anaheim are all on the hunt for a new manager, though Counsell has been most frequently speculated as a possible manager for the Mets, who recently hired former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, who Counsell managed under from 2016 to 2022. For Stearns’s part, he’s previously indicated that the club plans to take its time with the hiring process and cast “a wide net” in their search for the next Mets manager.
More personnel news from around the league…
- The Guardians are in search of a new manager for the first time in over a decade thanks to Terry Francona’s retirement, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that one candidate for the role is Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza. Per Sherman, Cleveland has already contacted Mendoza in hopes of interviewing him for the role. It’s a process that Mendoza, 43, is familiar with; he’s interviewed for several managerial positions in the past, most recently with the White Sox last season. Mendoza joined the Yankees in 2009 as a member of their minor league coaching staff and eventually worked his way up to a role on the big league coaching staff in 2017 before becoming the bench coach for manager Aaron Boone following the 2019 season, a role he’s fulfilled ever since.
- Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen recently signed an extension with the club that will keep him in Arizona through 2028, with a club option for 2029. While Hazen was rumored as a potential candidate to take over in the Red Sox front office for Chaim Bloom, who the club fired just before the end of the 2023 campaign, Hazen made clear to team president Derrick Hall that he had no interest in leaving Arizona. As relayed by MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert, Hazen said that while he has family in Boston, he feels committed to the Diamondbacks, with an end goal of a deep playoff run and World Series championship. “That’s not done,” Hazen said, “We’re not even close to that yet.”
Ross Atkins Discusses Schneider, Coaching Staff, Offense
During the Blue Jays’ end-of-season press conference today, GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters about a variety of topics, including the decision to pull right-hander Jose Berrios from what proved to be the club’s final game of the season after just three innings, the future of manager John Schneider and the coaching staff, as well as the club’s offense in 2022.
Regarding the decision to pull Berrios, Atkins emphasized that in-game decision making is a role that belongs exclusively to Schneider, saying (as relayed by MLB.com’s Julia Kreuz) that the front office did not “influence” Schneider’s game plan for the club’s pitching staff, “other than maybe that it was an organizational strategy that had been communicated to players.” Though Atkins emphasized that he did not play a role in the decision, he also expressed support for Schneider’s decision, noting that run prevention wasn’t the club’s issue during the series, where they mustered just one run on fifteen hits across the two games. “The strategy is one that, in the end, was effective if we only allowed two runs,” Atkins said.
While Atkins expressed support for Schneider and confirmed during the presser that he would return as the club’s manager in 2024, the future of Toronto’s coaching staff appears less certain as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi notes that Atkins described discussions on the future of the club’s coaching staff as “ongoing,” though the specifics of any changes being considered were unclear.
In terms of offseason priorities, Atkins made clear that the club will look to improve its offense ahead of the 2024 campaign. Though the club’s 107 wRC+ was a solid figure that placed them eighth-best in the majors this season, it still represents a noteworthy decline from last year’s AL-best offense that posted a 118 wRC+. The club suffered a particularly tough season in terms of power, as Toronto’s ISO dipped from .168 in 2022 to .161 this year. While that dip may seem insignificant, it’s all the more concerning given the much stronger offensive environment around the sport in 2023, as made obvious by the Blue Jays going from eighth-best in the majors last year to just 18th this season, worst among playoff teams in the AL.
With sluggers Brandon Belt (19 homers, .236 ISO) and Matt Chapman (17 homers, .185 ISO) both scheduled to hit free agency in the coming weeks, even more pressure figures to be placed on franchise face Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to bounce back from 2023’s down season . That said, stronger performances from outfielders George Springer and Daulton Varsho as well as catcher Alejandro Kirk will also be necessary if the club’s offense is going to regain its top-of-the-league form from 2022. Of course, the team could also look to free agency in order to give their offense a facelift. Chapman and Belt will be joined by the likes of Mitch Garver, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, and Joc Pederson as some of the better power bats available this winter.
Jim Poole Passes Away
Former big leaguer Jim Poole passed away yesterday at the age of 57. Poole, a left-handed reliever who pitched in 11 big league seasons from 1990-2000, pitched for eight MLB clubs during his career and was diagnosed with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, back in 2021. Beyond his big league career, Poole worked with the MLB Players’ Association for many years as a member of the union’s pension committee, and more recently served as chairman of the Major League Alumni Marketing board.
“Jim Poole left an indelible mark through the years as a teammate, friend, committed advocate for his fellow players, and, most importantly, a loving and devoted family man,” a statement from the MLBPA reads, “He was an inspiration during his playing career and a shining example of courage and grace in his fight against ALS.”
After being drafted in the ninth-round of the 1988 draft by the Dodgers out of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Poole made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 1990, posting a 4.22 ERA in 10 2/3 innings. In 1991, Poole briefly suited up for the Rangers but made just five appearances before joining the Orioles, with whom he’d stay from 1991-94. During his time in Baltimore, Poole posted a 2.86 ERA that was 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.65.
Poole moved on to Cleveland in 1995 and posted a 3.75 ERA in 50 1/3 innings before going on to pitch for the club in the World Series that year. After starting the 1996 season with the club, he was moved to the Giants midway through the season and stayed there for three seasons before ultimately returning to Cleveland late in the 1998 season. Though 1996 was among the best seasons of Poole’s career, with a 2.86 ERA in 50 1/3 innings of work, he struggled badly during the 1997 and ’98 seasons. He got back on his feet somewhat in 1999, posting a 4.33 ERA in 35 1/3 innings with the Phillies, though he struggled upon returning to Cleveland late in the year. Poole’s MLB career came to a close in 2000 after 10 2/3 innings of work split between the Tigers and Expos.
After his playing days came to an end, Poole remained active in the MLBPA and also worked as an investment manager for big league players. After being diagnosed with ALS in 2021, Poole became active in raising awareness regarding the disease. He was a board member of the nonprofit ALS Cure Project, which was founded in honor of Gretchen Piscotty, the mother of former big league outfielder Stephen Piscotty after she passed away in 2018. More recently, Poole was honored by the Orioles at Camden Yards last year on Lou Gehrig Day. Poole’s accomplishments off the field add to a resume that includes a career 4.31 ERA and 4.51 FIP in 363 big league innings during the regular season, along with a 2.45 career ERA during the postseason.
We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Poole’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates/colleagues.
Dodgers, Diamondbacks Announce NLDS Rosters
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are set to play Game 1 of the NL Division Series this evening at Dodger Stadium. Left-hander Clayton Kershaw (2.46 ERA) is set to take the mound for LA this evening opposite right-hander Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA). The clubs both announced their 26-man rosters for the impending five-game series earlier this afternoon.
Arizona made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, swapping out right-hander Bryce Jarvis for left-hander Kyle Nelson. Jarvis, 25, posted a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season, though the rookie’s peripherals were less impressive. Jarvis struck out just 13% of batters while walking 9.8% and achieved solid results thanks largely to a microscopic .162 BABIP. All that left him with a FIP of 5.03 during the regular season. Jarvis ultimately did not appear during Arizona’s two-game sweep of the Brewers.
His departure from the roster makes room for Nelson, who the Diamondbacks claimed off waivers from Cleveland prior to the 2022 season. The lefty has pitched well in 111 appearances with Arizona, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.96 FIP across 93 innings of work. That said, his work has been a touch less impressive in 2023, with a 4.18 ERA and 4.45 FIP over 56 innings.
Ineligible for the club’s NLDS roster is outfielder Jake McCarthy, who was replaced on the Wild Card Series roster by Jace Peterson before Game 1 began thanks to an oblique injury suffered during batting practice. It’s unclear if McCarthy will be able to return to the roster if Arizona makes it to the NLCS, as manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including those at ESPN) that McCarthy’s injury is a matter of weeks rather than days, putting his postseason availability into doubt even if the Diamondbacks manage a deeper run.
As for the Dodgers, the club secured a bye through the Wild Card Series with a 100-win season, second only to the Braves in the National League and well ahead of the 92-win Brewers, who were knocked out of the postseason by Arizona last round. LA sports just three surefire starting options on the roster in Kershaw, rookie Bobby Miller and veteran Trade Deadline addition Lance Lynn. That being said, righties Shelby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, and Michael Grove are all multi-inning options the team has at their disposal on the roster, though the club opted against rostering left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who posted a 4.89 ERA and 4.52 FIP across 11 appearances for the club after being acquired from the Royals ahead of the deadline back in August.
Looking at the position players on the club’s roster, second baseman Kolten Wong makes an appearance over infielder Amed Rosario. After a brutal first half of the season in Seattle, Wong has hit .300/.353/.500 in limited time (34 plate appearances) with the Dodgers, while Rosario has hit .256/.301/.408 across a much more substantial sample size of 133 trips to the plate with LA. That being said, Wong provides the club with a left-handed bat off the bench to complement fellow righty infielders Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez.
The full rosters…
Diamondbacks
- Right-handed pitchers: Miguel Castro, Luis Frías, Zac Gallen, Kevin Ginkel, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson
- Left-handed pitchers: Joe Mantiply, Kyle Nelson, Andrew Saalfrank
- Catchers: Jose Herrera, Gabriel Moreno
- Infielders: Jordan Lawler, Evan Longoria, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Jace Peterson, Emmanuel Rivera, Pavin Smith, Christian Walker
- Outfielders: Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tommy Pham, Alek Thomas
Dodgers
- Right-handed pitchers: Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol, Michael Grove, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Bobby Miller, Shelby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Evan Phillips, Emmet Sheehan
- Left-handed pitchers: Caleb Ferguson, Clayton Kershaw, Alex Vesia
- Catchers: Austin Barnes, Will Smith
- Infielders: Freddie Freeman, Enrique Hernandez, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, Kolten Wong
- Outfielders: Mookie Betts, Jason Heyward, James Outman, David Peralta
Blue Jays Outright Jay Jackson
October 6: Jackson cleared outright waivers, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll qualify for free agency at the beginning of the offseason, so it was a lock that he’d go unclaimed.
October 1: The Blue Jays announced this afternoon that the club has designated right-hander Jay Jackson for assignment. In a corresponding move, the club selected the contract of right-hander Wes Parsons. The move brings Jackson’s 2023 season to an end. The 35-year-old hurler signed with Toronto on a one-year deal back in March and was already slated to become a free agent following the 2023 campaign, though the move means that Jackson won’t join the club as they embark on a postseason push this October.
In 25 appearances with the Blue Jays this season, Jackson has posted a 2.12 ERA, good for a whopping 200 ERA+ in 29 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander’s peripherals are less impressive, with a 4.20 FIP and 3.89 SIERA, though even those figures are still better than average. The strong performance in 2023 continues a run of three seasons in the majors where Jackson has been an effective reliever: since returning from Japan prior to the 2021 season, the veteran righty has posted a 2.73 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 50 appearances with the Giants, Braves, and Blue Jays. Jackson is among several solid middle relief options who figure to be a part of the coming free agent class, like fellow righties John Brebbia and Keynan Middleton.
In Jackson’s place, the Blue Jays select Parsons, who last pitched in the majors during the 2019 campaign. He spent the 2021 and 2022 seasons overseas pitching in the KBO, where he combined for a 3.67 ERA in 196 1/3 innings of work despite his career 5.67 ERA at the major league level. Parsons signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays this past offseason and has made 17 starts at the Triple-A level, recording a 4.52 ERA in 81 2/3 innings of work. Parsons, 31, will start today’s season finale against the Rays and figures to help cover innings as the club prepares for the AL Wild Card series, which begins on Tuesday.
Joey Votto Plans To Play In 2024
Reds first baseman Joey Votto just wrapped up the final guaranteed year of his contract, and while the Reds hold a $13MM decision on a $20MM team option for the veteran’s services next season, they seem all but certain to simply pay the $7MM buyout on the option.
The end of his contract in Cincinnati has come with plenty of speculation regarding whether or not Votto, who turned 40 last month, would retire after seventeen seasons in the big leagues. Votto put that speculation to rest today on The Dan Patrick Show, as the show’s executive producer Paul Pabst made note of this morning. As a guest on the radio show this morning, Votto announced that he wants to play “at least” one more season before adding that while he wants to play for the Reds, he would at least consider playing for another club if the team decides they want to move on.
From a pure production standpoint, Votto appears to be something of a borderline candidate for a big league role headed into 2024. His 2023 season saw him begin the season on the injured list as he struggled to get ready for the season following shoulder surgery he underwent in the summer of 2022, but once he reached the field he was a roughly league average bat for the Reds, slashing .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) with 14 home runs in just 242 trips to the plate.
Of course, there’s more at play here than simply raw on-the-field production. Votto is one of the premiere talents of his generation, a six-time All Star who won the NL MVP award in 2010 and finished in the top-10 of MVP voting five additional times. He’s led the National League in on-base percentage seven times in his career, stands as the league’s active leader in walks and hits (following the retirement of Miguel Cabrera) while placing in the top five among active players in doubles, home runs, and RBI. What’s more, he’s spent his entire professional career in a Reds uniform ever since being drafted by the club in the second round of the 2002 draft.
Given Votto’s Hall of Fame-caliber resume and two-decade long history in the Reds organization, it’s hard to imagine him playing for any other club. That being said, the reality of the situation may not be quite so cut-and-dry. After all, the Reds are at the beginning of what could be a long competitive window and boast a bevy of exciting young position players and prospects including Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Noelvi Marte. Those five players alone figure to fill the club’s infield mix and DH spot, to say nothing of the presence of Jonathan India and other up-and-coming youngsters like Edwin Arroyo. It’s hard to imagine Votto having a place in the club’s everyday lineup in 2024, though it’s unclear if he would be open to a bench role in the organization.
That said, it seems unlikely that Votto would be able to find a starting role on a contender in the event he moves on from the Reds. While it’s certainly feasible he could find a part-time role with a club in need of lefty bats like his hometown Blue Jays, it’s fair to assume based on Votto’s comments that such an arrangement would only be on the table if the Reds are unwilling to offer him a role on the team in any capacity, given his stated preference to play for Cincinnati next year.
AL Notes: Verdugo, Astros, Mariners
With the Red Sox front office seeing change at the top following the firing of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, it’s hard to predict what sort of direction Boston might go in this offseason before they find a replacement for Bloom at the top of the club’s hierarchy. Still, there are some clues, most notably comments by team president and CEO Sam Kennedy that indicate the club hopes to sign some of their younger players to long-term extensions, with the likes of right-hander Brayan Bello, first baseman Triston Casas, and outfielders Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu earning particular mention.
While Duran had experience in the infield during his time in the minors, both he and Abreu are exclusively outfielders at the big league level. Between Boston’s apparent belief in both youngsters, the emergence of top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela as perhaps the club’s best defender in center field, and the presence of Masataka Yoshida on a long-term deal, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see where outfielder Alex Verdugo fits in for the Red Sox. As noted by Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, however, Verdugo spoke glowingly of the organization on the final day of the regular season.
“Hopefully I stay here with the Red Sox,” Verdugo said, “I love this organization. I have made it clear to them.” At the same time, Verdugo acknowledged the uncertainty of his position headed into the offseason before saying, “You just have to work hard… If it’s not this team, there’s 29 other teams.”
A free agent after the 2024 campaign, Verdugo would be an interesting trade candidate if dangled by the Red Sox this offseason. Verdugo finished the 2023 campaign on a rough note, slashing just .225/.268/.367 in the second half. Prior to that, however, he was a borderline All Star with a .290/.360/.457 slash line that was in line with the very best performances of his career. Taken together, it makes for a roughly league average production (98 wRC+) in 142 games this year. Verdugo also contributed positively with the glove, registering +1 Outs Above Average after posting -5 marks in each of the previous two seasons. That combination of solid defense in right field and a league average or better lefty bat should be intriguing to outfield-needy clubs, particularly given a fairly soft free agent class at the position.
More from the American League…
- The Astros are set to begin their postseason push tomorrow with a five-game set against the Twins in the ALDS, but GM Dana Brown is already making plans for what comes next when the team’s season concludes. As noted by MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Brown, who joined the Astros as GM back in January, has made clear that promotions are inbound for other members of the club’s front office, saying that he’s “found out they have a lot of good people here.” Brown noted that “at least six” promotions are expected within the front office. While the specific personnel and role changes being discussed aren’t yet clear, it’s sensible for the Astros to promote from within as front offices around baseball begin asking their fellow organizations for permission to interview club employees for positions in their own organization. As previously mentioned, the Red Sox are looking for a new head of their baseball operations department, while the Mets could look to replace GM Billy Eppler in the near future after he stepped down from his role as David Stearns’s second in command yesterday.
- With managerial vacancies in Anaheim, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Queens already announced, plenty of clubs are already making changes in the dugout this offseason. MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi suggests that the Mariners could see several members of their coaching staff get significant attention for the open positions, listing bullpen coach Stephen Vogt, first base coach Kristopher Negron, and third base coach Manny Acta all as Seattle coaches who could be under consideration for one or more of the current vacancies. Acta is the only one of the three with previous managerial experience at the big league level; in addition to three years with the Nationals from 2007-2009, he stands as Cleveland’s most recent manager besides Terry Francona, who retired from managing following the 2023 campaign.