Mike Elias Discusses Upcoming Orioles Offseason
Orioles GM Mike Elias spoke to reporters this afternoon in an end-of-season press conference on the heels of the club being swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers on Tuesday. As relayed by reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner), Elias discussed an array of topics during the presser, including the club’s plans for the offseason and the upcoming 2024 campaign.
Following a 101-win campaign during which the club spent just $66MM on player payroll per RosterResource, Elias notably was noncommittal when asked whether or not the club planned to increase payroll this offseason. The Orioles GM simply noted that it’s still “day one” of Baltimore’s offseason, rather than providing a concrete answer about the club’s payroll expectations. Despite Elias demurring regarding the club’s 2024 payroll, he did note that the club has missed out on some preferred free agent and trade targets this year, and that “those pursuits will be on the menu again” this offseason.
Though Elias wouldn’t commit to increasing payroll next year, it’s worth noting that it would be difficult for the club to avoid increasing it’s payroll at least somewhat. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the club’s sixteen arbitration-eligible players to command a combined $55MM in salary for the 2024 season. That would leave the Orioles just $11MM in salary to pay existing commitments to Felix Bautista and James McCann and round out the rest of the club’s roster, which will see both second baseman Adam Frazier and right-hander Kyle Gibson head back to free agency after signing one-year deals with the club this past offseason.
While Elias did not reveal the club’s contract situations regarding either himself or manager Brandon Hyde, he confirmed both of them would return to the club for the 2024 campaign in their current roles. Elias spoke glowingly of Hyde during the presser, saying that the 50-year-old skipper “had an unbelievable season” in 2023 and that he expects Hyde to follow up his runner-up finish in AL Manager of the Year voting last season with a win this year.
The Orioles also offered a handful of updates regarding their players during the presser. Left-hander John Means missed most of the 2023 campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery before returning in September with a strong 2.66 ERA across four starts. Despite that performance, Means was left off the club’s ALDS roster due to elbow soreness, an ominous sign for an player coming off UCL surgery. Fortunately for both Means and the Orioles, the issue appears to have been very minor. Elias told reporters that Means is in “good shape” and should be fully ready for Spring Training come February. Means figures to factor into a 2024 rotation mix that also seems likely to feature Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer.
One other potential entrant into the club’s 2024 rotation mix is left-hander DL Hall. A consensus top-100 prospect entering the season even after his uneven big league debut in 2022, Hall has been a starter for 81 of his 96 career appearances in the minors despite being used primarily out of the bullpen in the big leagues. He was impressive in 19 1/3 innings of relief this year at the big league level, with a 3.26 ERA and 3.00 FIP, though he made just one appearance that lasted longer than two innings.
While Hyde praised Hall’s work with the club during the regular season last month out of the bullpen, he also noted that the club hasn’t discussed what his role next year will be, though Hyde emphasized that Hall will play a significant part in the club’s plans for 2024 regardless of his role. If Hall doesn’t wind up stretched back out for a shot at a rotation job in Spring Training, he could be given the opportunity to work as a high-leverage relief arm aside Yennier Cano in the absence of Bautista, who acted as the club’s main closer this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Perhaps most excitingly for Orioles fans, Elias did not push back against suggestions that top prospect Jackson Holliday could be in play for the big league roster next spring.
“I think when you are 19 and then you’re 20, that’s one year but that’s a lot of aging and physical development,” Elias said of Holiday, who turns 20 in December. “I can’t wait to see what he looks like in spring training.”
Holliday certainly made an impact during his first full professional season, slashing .323/.442/.499 with a 17.4% walk rate against a 20.3% strikeout rate in 581 trips to the plate across four levels of the minor leagues. That being said, Holliday’s experience at Triple-A didn’t go quite as smoothly as his overall numbers might suggest. In 91 plate appearances at the highest level of the minor leagues, the youngster slashed .267/.396/.400, though he did maintain his impressive walk (17.6%) and strikeout (18.9%) rates from the lower levels of the minors.
If Holliday manages to make the club’s Opening Day roster, Baltimore would be faced with a serious infield logjam. Both Holliday and Gunnar Henderson would presumably be in line for regular starts, and with first base likely dominated by some combination of Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn the club would have just one infield spot to dedicate to a group that includes Ramon Urias, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo, and Terrin Vavra, not to mention additional youngsters like Coby Mayo.
MLBTR Poll: San Diego’s Juan Soto Decision
Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.
Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.
The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.
After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.
The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.
It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.
All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.
Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.
What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
What Should The Padres Do With Juan Soto?
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Trade him this offseason. 58% (5,371)
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Extend him this offseason and cut payroll elsewhere. 24% (2,199)
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Reassess the situation over the summer. 18% (1,718)
Total votes: 9,288
The Opener: ALDS, Brewers, Offseason Outlook
On the heels of a wild win by the Braves and a crushing defeat for the Dodgers in last night’s NLDS games, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. ALDS heads to Minnesota, Arlington:
Game 3 of the ALDS is scheduled today for both the Astros’ series against the Twins and the Orioles’ series against the Rangers. Baltimore is fighting for their playoff lives today in Arlington after the Rangers took the first two games of the series at Camden Yards. The Orioles figure to send right-hander Dean Kremer (4.12 ERA) to the mound while the Rangers counter with veteran hurler Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA). While plenty of playoff games were played at Arlington’s Globe Life Field during the pandemic, including the 2020 World Series, tonight’s game will be the Rangers’ first ever postseason game at their new stadium. Baltimore’s last stand will begin at 7:03pm CT.
Meanwhile, the Astros and Twins head to Target Field in Minnesota after splitting two games in Houston. Houston will send right-hander Cristian Javier (4.56 ERA) to the mound opposite the veteran Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA). The matchup is sure to be an exciting one; Gray, of course, leads the majors with a sterling 2.83 FIP and is one of the top candidates for the AL Cy Young award this year. Javier, on the other hand, has had a difficult season on the mound but made history during his last postseason outing. He threw six shutout innings against the Phillies during Game 4 of the World Series last year, leading the Houston pitching staff to a combined no-hitter for just the third postseason no-no in baseball history. The teams will play at 3:07pm CT.
2. Brewers to hold press conference:
The Brewers saw their season cut short last week when the club was swept out of the Wild Card Series in Milwaukee at the hands of the Diamondbacks. With the end of the club’s season comes an end-of-season press conference, and Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that Brewers GM Matt Arnold will hold the presser today at 11:30am CT. Plenty of questions face the Brewers this offseason, with co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff as well as shortstop Willy Adames all set to go through arbitration for the final time and manager Craig Counsell‘s contract set to expire at the end of the month. A transitional year could be in the cards for Milwaukee in 2024, despite the club winning 92 games in 2023 en route to their third division title and fifth postseason appearance in the last six years.
3. Offseason Outlook Chat today:
As the postseason continues for the eight teams fortunate enough to have made it this far, our annual Offseason Outlook series is back to take a look ahead at what’s in store for all 30 clubs this winter. Last night, MLBTR published the Angels installment of the 2023-24 series, which you can read here. If you have any questions regarding what the future might hold in Anaheim, including those about the future of a certain two-way superstar poised to hit free agency next month, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting an Angels-centric live chat at 2:00pm CT this afternoon. You can click here to leave a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live or read the transcript of the chat after it’s completed.
West Notes: Longoria, Scherzer, Pena
With the Diamondbacks still in the thick of a playoff run, third baseman Evan Longoria surely hasn’t had much time to ponder whether or not he’ll continue playing beyond the 2023 season in recent days. That being said, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated today that the veteran, who celebrated his 38th birthday over the weekend, is “leaning towards” playing again in 2024, though he’s made no official decision at this point.
That Longoria would consider playing beyond this season is of little surprise. In part time duty with the Diamondbacks this season, the veteran has slashed .223/.295/.422 with a wRC+ of 92 in 74 games. Those numbers are decent for a part-time player, but what really sticks out is Longoria’s performance prior to being shelved for a month with a lower back strain at the end of July. At the time of his injury, Longoria’s slash line was an impressive .238/.303/.500 with 11 home runs and nine doubles in just 178 plate appearances. Those well above average numbers and the significant power Longoria flashed would make him a useful addition to plenty of teams, particularly given his apparent willingness to accept a part-time role.
What’s more, a career milestone could be within reach for Longoria if he returns in 2024: the veteran has 1,930 hits for his career to this point, putting him just 70 away from 2,000 career hits. While Longoria hasn’t reached 70 hits in a season in recent years, he’s come very close with 66- and 65-hit campaigns in 2021 and 2022, respectively. If he decides to continue playing in 2024, he’d join a free agent class at third base that includes Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, and Gio Urshela.
More from around MLB’s West divisions…
- Though he was left off the Rangers‘ roster for the ALDS, veteran right-hander Max Scherzer is seemingly making good progress in his bid to return from what was initially expected to be a season-ending teres major strain. As relayed by Rangers beat reporter John Moore, Scherzer told manager Bruce Bochy today that he feels “normal” after a successful bullpen session against live hitters on Friday. Given the positive update, it seems reasonable that Scherzer could remain in play for the Rangers during the ALCS, should the club make it that far. Texas currently holds a 2-0 lead over the Orioles in the ALDS. If Scherzer can return this postseason, it would surely be a major boost for the Rangers. The future Hall of Famer posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.45 FIP across eight starts with the Rangers after the club acquired him from the Mets at the trade deadline.
- Astros fans received a bit of a scare during last night’s loss to the Twins when shortstop Jeremy Pena suffered an awkward landing on first base while running out the final out of the game. Fortunately, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed this afternoon that Pena was on the field and taking grounders during the club’s workout session during today’s off-day in Minnesota. Given Pena’s participation in the workout, it seems whatever may have been ailing Pena won’t be an issue headed into Game 3 of the ALDS tomorrow. Pena, who hit .263/.324/.381 in 634 trips to the plate this season, would likely be backed up by Mauricio Dubon at shortstop in the event that he was unable to play.
Nationals Part Ways With Four Coaches
The Nationals have informed bench coach Tim Bogar, third base coach Gary DiSarcina, assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler that their contracts will not be renewed in 2024, per Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic, who also reports that first base coach Eric Young Jr. will not be returning to the club next season. The changes to the big league coaching staff come on the heels of the club significantly overhauling their front office and minor league coaching staffs earlier this month. Despite the many changes in personnel, both manager Dave Martinez and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo will return in 2024 after receiving multi-year extensions midseason.
The changes come on the heels of another difficult season in D.C. The club took some steps forward with solid seasons from Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Jake Irvin in the rotation with the likes of Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, and CJ Abrams providing hope for the future on offense, but the team still has a long way to go before it can hope to return to contention. While the club’s 71-91 record in 2023 was their best season by winning percentage since the club’s unlikely World Series championship back in 2019 and certainly an improvement over a 107-loss 2022, it still left the club to finish last in the NL East for the third consecutive season, a whopping 33 games behind the division-leading Braves and 13 games out of a playoff spot.
Bogar, 56, began his lengthy coaching career throughout the major and minor leagues back in 2004. His first big league opportunity came as a coaching assistant to then-Rays manager Joe Maddon in 2008, and he has since coached at the major league level for the Red Sox, Rangers, and Mariners in addition to the Nationals, including a stint as interim manager in Texas. Bogar also served as a special assistant in the Angels front office during the 2015 season.
DiSarcina, 55, has been with the Nationals as third base coach for two seasons. Prior to arriving in Washington, he served as bench and third base coach for the Mets, bench coach for the Red Sox, and third base and first base coach for the Angels throughout his major league coaching career, which began in 2014. Prior to his time in the big league dugout, he served as a manager in the minor leagues and special assistant in the Angels’ front office.
Roessler, 63, has been the club’s assistant hitting coach since 2020. Prior to joining the Nationals, he served as assistant hitting coach with the Mets from 2015-2017 before being promoted to hitting coach in 2018. He also acted as hitting coach for the Expos during the 2000 and 2001 seasons with stints in the White Sox, Yankees, Pirates, and Astros organizations in various roles throughout his lengthy baseball career, which began in 1988.
Young, 38, began working as first base coach in Washington prior to the 2022 season. It was his first big league coaching job, though he had spent 2021 as a coach at the Triple-A level for the Mariners after retiring from his playing career in 2020.
Reds Outright Five Players
The Reds announced this afternoon that right-handers Vladimir Gutierrez, Alan Busenitz, Justin Dunn, Brett Kennedy, and Connor Overton have all cleared waivers and been assigned outright to the minor leagues. None of the five had previously been announced as having been designated for assignment, though the quintet have all now been removed from the club’s 40-man roster.
Gutierrez, 28, missed the entire 2023 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was a regular member of the Reds rotation during his 2021 rookie campaign, pitching to a roughly league average 4.74 ERA (99 ERA+) with a 5.76 FIP in 114 innings of work across 22 starts. Gutierrez struggled particularly badly down the stretch that season, with a 9.43 ERA and 7.17 FIP in his last six starts of the season. Prior to that awful stretch, Gutierrez had managed a 3.68 ERA and 4.78 FIP that gave him the look of a solid, back-of-the-rotation arm.
It was strong enough performance to earn Gutierrez a spot in the Cincinnati rotation to start his Sophomore campaign, though he struggled badly with a 7.71 ERA and 6.51 FIP in eight starts that saw him removed from the rotation at the end of May that year. Gutierrez made just two more appearances for the Reds in the big leagues that season before going under the knife in early July. Gutierrez eventually made it back onto a professional mound late in the 2023 season, though he struggled to an 8.31 ERA in 4 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this year. Now that he’s off the club’s 40-man roster seems likely that Gutierrez, who is eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player this offseason, will enter free agency this offseason barring the Reds deciding to both add him back to the 40-man roster and tender him a contract.
Busenitz, 33, has the option to elect free agency rather than accept the outright assignment as a player who’s been outrighted previously in his career, and will qualify for minor league free agency next month regardless. A 25th-round pick by the Angels in the 2013 draft, Busenitz made his MLB debut with the Twins back in 2017, pitching out of the club’s bullpen for two seasons with a 4.58 ERA and 5.49 FIP before joining the Reds on a minor league deal this past offseason. Busenitz was shuttled on and off the club’s roster throughout the season, ultimately posting a strong 2.57 ERA across his six appearances.
Dunn, 28, was a first-round pick by the Mets in the 2016 draft before being shipped to the Mariners in a package that also featured Jarred Kelenic in exchange for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Dunn made his big league debut for the Mariners back in 2019 and pitched to a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings of work for the club over three seasons before being traded to Cincinnati in the deal that sent Jesse Winker to Seattle. Dunn struggled badly in 31 innings with the Reds last year, posting a 6.10 ERA in 31 innings before missing the entire 2023 campaign due to a shoulder issue that required surgery in September. Like Gutierrez, Dunn will be eligible for minor league free agency unless the Reds add him back to the 40-man roster and tender him a contract in the coming weeks.
Kennedy, 29, has been outrighted previously in his career, allowing him to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment. Like Busenitz, he figures to qualify for minor league free agency next month either way. Kennedy made his big league debut with the Padres in 2018 after the club selected him in the 11th round of the 2015 draft. He struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings with San Diego that year and didn’t receive another big league opportunity until this year, when he posted a 6.50 ERA across 18 innings with the Reds.
Overton, 30, has also been outrighted before in his career and will have the option to elect free agency rather than accept his outright assignment, with minor league free agency likely looming next month regardless of his decision. A 15th-round pick by the Marlins in the 2014 draft, Overton made his major league debut with the Blue Jays back in 2021 before being claimed off waivers by the Pirates that September, only to hit free agency after being outrighted off the roster that offseason. With a 4.70 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season, Overton joined the Reds on a minor league deal and pitched well in 2022, with a 2.73 ERA in six appearances, including four starts. Things came off the rails for Overton in 2023, however, as he struggled to a 11.45 ERA in three starts with the Reds before ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery back in May.
Felix Bautista Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
The Orioles announced this afternoon that closer Felix Bautista underwent successful Tommy John surgery today, with Dr. Keith Meister performing the procedure. The news comes as little surprise given Bautista’s surgery was announced prior to the end of the regular season by GM Mike Elias. The Orioles did not provide on update on Bautista’s timeline following the procedure, though he was already expected to miss the entirety of the 2024 campaign while rehabbing the surgery, with Spring Training 2025 as the stated goal for his return to the mound.
Bautista, 28, broke out in a big way during his sophomore season as a big leaguer to become one of the best relievers in baseball this year. Over 61 innings of work, Bautista posted a microscopic 1.48 ERA that was fifth-best in the majors among players with at least 50 innings of work this year while striking out 46.4% of batters faced this season. Not only did that strikeout rate lead the majors in 2023, but it was the seventh-best mark of all time among pitchers with at least 50 innings of work in a single season. Only Aroldis Chapman (2014), Craig Kimbrel (2012, 2017), Edwin Diaz (2022), and Josh Hader (2018, 2019) have ever posted higher strikeout rates in a season than Bautista did this year, putting him in truly elite company among the best closers of today’s game.
While Bautista has a lengthy rehab ahead of him as he looks to work his way back from, the right-hander won’t have to worry about his place on the Orioles as he works his way back. Elias revealed alongside the initial announcement of Bautista’s impending surgery that the sides had come together on a two-year guaranteed contract that will cover the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That leaves Bautista secure for his final pre-arbitration season and his first year of arbitration eligibility. He’ll make his first trip through the arbitration process after the 2025 campaign.
With Bautista set to spend the entire 2024 campaign on the 60-day IL the Orioles seem likely to look for reinforcements to their bullpen, which was only rivaled by that of the Dodgers in 2023, ahead of the 2024 campaign. Right-hander Yennier Cano had a strong season acting as Bautista’s primary set-up man and has filled the closer role acceptably in Bautista’s absence, while the likes of Danny Coulombe, Bryan Baker, and perhaps even converted starts such as DL Hall and Tyler Wells could impact next year’s relief corps. Still, external additions will surely be necessary to replace Bautista’s production. Hader stands atop the coming crop of free agent relief arms, though plenty of other interesting options figure to be available including Chapman, Matt Moore, Joe Jimenez, Jordan Hicks, and Hector Neris.
Mitch Garver’s Unusual Platform Season
The upcoming free agent class has long looked like it would be much heavier on pitching than hitting, and that situation only became more extreme as players at or near the top of the class like Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Ian Happ signed extensions prior to the 2023 campaign. Headed into the season, it looked as if the only surefire impact position players available would be two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and glove-first third baseman Matt Chapman, particularly when slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez struggled badly to open the year. One name that didn’t receive much attention prior to his platform season was Mitch Garver, the Rangers catcher who had appeared in just 37.8% of his teams’ games since the start of the 2020 season due to injuries.
Texas defied preseason expectations to lead the AL West throughout the entire first half, lost eight consecutive games in late August to fall into a three-way tie with the Mariners and Astros in the win column, then ultimately missed the AL West crown after posting a 90-72 record identical to that of Houston’s division champs. Despite all of that uncertainty, Garver has been a stabilizing presence when in the club’s lineup. The 32-year-old slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 across 344 trips to the plate with the Rangers this season while posting his lowest strikeout rate (23.8%) since 2019 and a career-best mark for walk rate (12.8%).
To put those numbers into perspective, Garver’s 138 wRC+ this year is tied with Brandon Belt and Ryan Jeffers for the 15th-best mark in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season. This puts Garver ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, and Luis Arraez, and just a few points players like Kyle Tucker and Bryce Harper. Making Garver’s offensive capabilities more enticing is his ability to play catcher. Among all catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023, Garver ranks second in on-base percentage, third in slugging percentage, third in walk rate, and he is tied with Jeffers for second in wRC+ (behind only Tom Murphy‘s 47-game season with the Mariners).
Given the weak offensive free agent class, Garver’s prowess with the bat, and his ability to play behind the plate, one might assume that the veteran is on his way to a top-of-the-market payday this offseason. However, Garver’s situation isn’t that simple. Beyond the fact that he’ll play the 2024 campaign at age-33, there’s also the concern of his lengthy injury history. Garver missed six weeks with a sprained knee earlier this season, and in recent years has also missed time due to forearm, groin, back, intercostal, and ankle issues. Between those injuries and his role as a catcher requiring more days off than most everyday players, Garver has played just 209 games the past three seasons despite being a clear everyday talent when healthy.
Upon his return from the injured list in June, the Rangers helped Garver stay on the field by utilizing him primarily as a designated hitter. Though he hit well in the role, he was limited to just 25 games behind the plate over the season’s final four months, which will surely raise questions for potential suitors regarding Garver’s ability to catch regularly going forward.
As a DH, Garver would still have value, though it would be significantly reduced. Belt and J.D. Martinez are two examples of defensively-limited sluggers in their mid-thirties who posted similar numbers to Garver in 2023, and both ended up signing one-year deals this past offseason. That’s not to say Garver will necessarily be limited to similarly short-term offers, though it’s hard to imagine a player of his age and injury history approaching the much more significant contract (five years, $87.5MM) commanded by Willson Contreras last year, despite Contreras being a fellow catcher with relatively comparable offensive numbers in recent years.
That seems particularly true given that Garver seems to best fit a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate. Of course, the Rangers have such an arrangement, with Jonah Heim as the club’s everyday catcher and plenty of DH starts available for Garver. The Cubs and Padres are among other teams who could theoretically provide Garver with occasional time behind the plate next year alongside regular backstops Yan Gomes and Luis Campusano while allowing him to DH the majority of the time, which would seem to be the best approach in order to maximize both Garver’s talents and time on the field.
Managerial Notes: Ross, Showalter, Venable, Jay
The Cubs had a rollercoaster season in 2023. The club entered the campaign with a projected win total of just 76.5 according to Fangraphs and fell to ten games below .500 by early June, prompting speculation that the club would deal Marcus Stroman in Cody Bellinger in what seemed sure to go down as the third straight rebuilding year for Chicago. The team turned things around, however, rattling off a 27-17 record from mid June to the end of July and prompting the club to add Jeimer Candelario rather than execute the anticipated sell-off. The club entered early September with their playoff odds soaring to over 90% but collapsed down the stretch, ultimately losing 15 of their last 22 to miss the playoff by just one game.
Given the club’s peculiar season, it’s hardly a surprise that manager David Ross emerged as a polarizing figure among Cubs fans. That being said, club officials remained steadfast in their support of the manager, with both chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer backing Ross as the club’s manager headed into 2024. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney indicate that Ross’s spot as manager is less certain in the long term, saying that “The bottom line is that the 2024 team has to win or else Hoyer may be forced to look in another direction” for the club’s manager.
The 2023 campaign was Ross’s fourth season as manager, and his second with a winning record. He managed a third place finish in NL Manager of the Year voting when the Cubs made the postseason under his guidance during the shortened 2020 campaign, though the club was swept by the Marlins in the Wild Card Series. The club then began rebuilding in 2021 and 2022 with consecutive deadline sell-offs that saw the departure of established regulars like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Overall, Ross sports a 262-284 record as Chicago’s manager.
More notes regarding managerial situations around the league…
- After being fired as Mets manager last week, veteran skipper Buck Showalter is reportedly hoping to return to the dugout, with the vacancy in Anaheim drawing his particular interest. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Angels are reciprocating Showalter’s interest, with Nightengale noting that Showalter was the first choice of ex-Angels GM Billy Eppler to lead the club following the 2019 season before the club ultimately decided on Joe Maddon. Eppler has since been replaced as the club’s GM by Perry Minasian, though Nightengale notes that he and Showalter worked together when Showalter was manager of the Rangers from 2003-06.
- Nightengale also discusses other potential managerial candidates around the league, describing Rangers associate manager Will Venable as “the favorite” to take over for retiring Guardians manager Terry Francona in Cleveland. 2023 was Venable’s first season as associate manager in Texas. Prior to joining the Rangers, he acted as bench coach of the Red Sox under Alex Cora and as a base coach for the Cubs. Venable has been a frequent subject of interest during a variety of managerial searches in recent years, interviewing for the position with the Cubs, Giants, Astros, Tigers and A’s in the past. Nightengale also mentions Marlins first base coach Jon Jay as a “potential candidate” for managerial openings around the league, though he does not specify which clubs may have interest in Jay, who just wrapped up his first season in the big league dugout.
Latest On Red Sox’s GM Search, Offseason Plans
After firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month, the Red Sox are in the midst of a search for their next baseball operations leader. Team president Sam Kennedy recently spoke to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam regarding the club’s preferences in their search, and made clear that the club is open to a hire who doesn’t have experience as the top decision maker in a front office.
Kennedy referred to past experience in a front office leadership role as “definitely not a requirement” before referencing GMs from around the league who had success in their first job as a top front office executive, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman and former Red Sox and Cubs executive Theo Epstein.
McAdam goes on to reference Phillies GM Sam Fuld, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes, and Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero as candidates the Red Sox have interest in who have never led a baseball operations department before, though he also notes more experienced candidates the club has been linked to such as Marlins GM Kim Ng (whose contract is up in Miami) and former Astros GM James Click, who currently serves as vice president of baseball strategy for the Blue Jays. The Red Sox had also been previously reported to have interest in Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, though the possibility of Hazen departing Arizona was squashed by his recent extension with the club. Referencing the potential of a job with the Red Sox following his extension, Hazen acknowledged his ties to Boston before emphasizing that he wasn’t ready to leave Arizona.
Aside from the club’s ongoing GM search, McAdam pushes back against a recent report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, which characterizes Boston as “a real threat” to sign two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. Despite that, McAdam reports that Ohtani was “not at all a focus” of Boston’s early meetings regarding their offseason plans, and that principal owner John Henry is against the sort of long-term megadeal it would surely require to lure Ohtani to the Red Sox.
To McAdam’s point, prior to the club’s $331MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers, the club had signed a contract that surpasses $200MM just once by signing left-hander David Price to a seven-year, $217MM pact. With the Devers deal freshly on the books on top of existing deals for shortstop Trevor Story and left-hander Chris Sale, it’s difficult to imagine the Red Sox offering the massive contract it would likely require to land Ohtani.