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Mariners Outright Joe Jacques

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The Mariners outrighted left-hander Joe Jacques to Triple-A yesterday, according to the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. Jacques was designated for assignment by the club earlier this week when southpaw Jose Castillo was claimed off waivers from the Mets.

Jacques, 30, was a 33rd-round pick by the Pirates all the way back in 2018. He climbed the minor league ladder with Pittsburgh but ultimately departed the organization following the 2022 season without making it to the big leagues. He signed on with the Red Sox and made his major league debut with the club in 2023, but posted a lackluster 5.06 ERA in 26 2/3 innings of work. He remained on Boston’s 40-man roster throughout the 2023-24 offseason, but ultimately made just one appearance at the big league level in 2024 before he was designated for assignment and plucked off waivers by the Diamondbacks. He made only one appearance with Arizona as well before he was once again DFA’d.

He elected minor league free agency during the offseason and landed with the Dodgers on a non-roster deal last November. His 6.04 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City left much to be desired and prevented him from making it to the big leagues in L.A., but the Mariners were sufficiently intrigued by his solid underlying metrics to roll the dice on him back in June and acquire him in a minor trade with the Dodgers. His performance at the Triple-A level did not improve with the move to Tacoma, as he has struggled to a 6.93 ERA in 24 appearances with the Rainiers this year. Seattle added him to their 40-man roster a month later, but he was never recalled from Tacoma to make his Mariners debut before being DFA’d earlier this week.

Should Jacques accept his outright assignment, he’ll remain in Tacoma for the remainder of the year as a non-roster depth piece for Seattle before having another chance to elect minor league free agency after the season concludes, if he isn’t added back to Seattle’s 40-man roster before then. If he decides to elect minor league free agency, perhaps he can catch on somewhere as a depth option for the stretch run, though he might also look to get a head start on the offseason market and begin searching for a place to play in 2026.

As for the Mariners, they now have Castillo to join Gabe Speier and Caleb Ferguson as left-handed options in their bullpen at the big league level. Tayler Saucedo is in Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster, likely making him the club’s top depth option for filling that role, but if Jacques remains in the organization he could compete with Austin Kitchen to be the next man up after that quartet.

Cubs Notes: Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Caissie

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The Cubs have been without Kyle Tucker since he exited Tuesday’s game against the Braves due to a calf issue, and it’s unclear when he’ll be returning to the lineup. Yesterday, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (as relayed by Marquee Sports Network on social media) that Tucker “didn’t really make progress” during Thursday’s day off, and would be out of the lineup for another day before adding that today would be a “big day” in terms of deciding how to proceed.

That language seemed to suggest that an injured list stint was in the cards for Tucker if he wasn’t healthy enough to return to the lineup today, and Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that outfield prospect Owen Caissie was scratched from Triple-A Iowa’s lineup and brought to Chicago in case a roster move was necessary. Ultimately, however, Tucker remains day-to-day and out of the lineup without a roster move. Counsell told reporters (as noted by Marquee) today that the club thinks that they “have time to let this heal” without an IL stint, seemingly indicating that he’ll be back in the lineup within the next few days.

Injured list stints can be backdated a maximum of three days, meaning that if Tucker had gone on the shelf today he’d be eligible to return for next weekend’s series against the Rays. In that time, Caissie could have joined with fellow top prospect Kevin Alcantara to form a platoon in right field, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in right while utility man Willi Castro and DH Seiya Suzuki serve as backup options in the outfield. Instead, the Cubs have opted to keep Tucker on the roster, with Suzuki and Castro splitting time in right field while Carlos Santana fills in at DH on days where Suzuki is in the outfield.

A roster move to bolster the outfield mix may yet be necessary, however. Crow-Armstrong exited today’s loss against the Nationals due to a knee contusion after fouling a ball off of his knee. As he told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) after the game, the incident has caused “a whole different kind of pain” than he’s used to. Crow-Armstrong went on to indicate that a decision on his status going forward won’t be made clear until tomorrow, but it seems feasible he might be ticketed for either an injured list stint or at least a few days off due to the injury. Having both Tucker and Crow-Armstrong unavailable on the bench would stretch the Cubs rather thin, given that both Justin Turner and Carlos Santana are limited to first base and DH duties only. Those two could handle DH while Suzuki, Castro, and Alcantara mix and match between right and center field, but that’s a less than ideal solution and simply placing one of their two ailing outfielders on the shelf to make room for Caissie may wind up being preferable.

The Cubs have the good fortune of having relatively little to play for over the final few weeks of the regular season. Fangraphs gives the club a 99.8% chance to secure a playoff spot this season, while their odds of surpassing the surging Brewers in the NL Central sit at a paltry 3.1%. With a Wild Card berth more or less guaranteed, Chicago could surely afford to place either Tucker or Crow-Armstrong (or, perhaps, both) on the injured list and fill out their roster with prospects at Triple-A already on the 40-man roster like Caissie and Moises Ballesteros if they think resting their stars could put them in a better position to win in October. Of course, with Crow-Armstrong slumping badly in recent weeks (.178/.225/.243 since August 1) and Tucker having recently broken out of his own slump, it’s also possible that they would benefit from getting as many reps as possible in order to get back on track before the playoffs.

Dodgers Place Dalton Rushing On 10-Day Injured List

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The Dodgers placed catcher Dalton Rushing on the 10-day injured list this evening due to a right shin contusion, per a team announcement. Rushing’s spot on the active roster will go to catcher Chuckie Robinson, who the Dodgers have selected from Triple-A Oklahoma City. Robinson will take the 40-man roster spot of right-hander Matt Sauer, who was designated for assignment.

Rushing, 24, appeared likely to get some runway behind the plate with L.A. while Will Smith is out of commission due to a bone bruise in his throwing hand. After Rushing fouled a ball of his leg earlier this week, he too found himself sidelined. Rushing told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) earlier today that a CT scan revealed that he had avoided a fracture in his shin, but is still suffering from a deep bone bruise. While Smith’s bone bruise is something the club has felt they could avoid placing him on the IL over, that did not end up being the case for Rushing, who will now head to the IL for at least the next ten days. Depending on the severity of the bruise, he could of course be sidelined for much longer than that.

While losing Rushing from the roster would be unfortunate, it’s not the massive blow that losing a top prospect might normally be expected to be. The 2022 second-rounder hasn’t hit much in his first taste of the majors this year, with a lackluster .190/.254/.298 (54 wRC+) slash line across 45 games. That poor performance has come with a massive 38.8% strikeout rate, though it of course must be acknowledged that taking to the majors is easier said than done for any rookie, much less one stepping into a backup catcher role that has afforded Rushing only 134 plate appearances across his first three-and-a-half months in the majors.

Regardless of Rushing’s results, however, the injury only serves to compound the issues L.A. is facing behind the plate with Smith not presently available. Ben Rortvedt was called up to serve as a third catcher on the roster while Smith is unavailable, and he’ll now step into regular catching duties for the short-term, with Robinson now poised to be his backup. Rortvedt’s .092/181/.108 slash line in the majors between the Rays and Dodgers this year is nothing to write home about, but he was a passable (87 wRC+) hitter while working behind the plate for the Rays last year thanks to a solid 10.7% walk rate. That’s more success than Robinson has had in the majors, offensively speaking. Robinson has 51 games in the big leagues to his name and in that time has hit just .132/.170/.194 with a career wRC+ of -3, meaning he’s 103% worse than a league average hitter.

Now in his age-30 season, Robinson’s value comes entirely from his ability as a quality defender behind the plate, and with Rortvedt’s own strong resume in that regard the Dodgers should have a solid defensive tandem at catcher even if the duo won’t offer much of anything in terms of offense. L.A.’s bats have been slumping, and their 193 runs scored is a bottom-ten figure since the All-Star break. Smith’s 154 wRC+ exiting the lineup for the time being is the most significant loss, of course, but downgrading from Rushing’s below-average numbers to the pitcher-level offensive production offered by Rortvedt and Robinson surely won’t help matters either. It’s hard to say for sure which of Robinson and Rortvedt will stick around on the roster once Smith is fully healthy and can resume primary catching duties, and perhaps if one or the other shows signs offensively over the next few days that could be a deciding factor.

As for Sauer, the right-hander made his big league debut with the Royals last year but struggled to a 7.71 ERA in 14 appearances. Now with the Dodgers, he’s pitched 29 2/3 innings of work in ten games at the big league level but has struggled to a 6.32 ERA in that time despite solid enough peripheral numbers, including a 4.24 xFIP and a 4.02 SIERA. He’ll now be available on waivers to be claimed by another club, and if he goes unclaimed the Dodgers will have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A as non-roster depth.

White Sox Outright Bryse Wilson

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The White Sox have outrighted right-hander Bryse Wilson to Triple-A Charlotte, according to a report from James Fegan of Sox Machine earlier today. Wilson was designated for assignment earlier this week and evidently cleared waivers in the following days.

Wilson, 27, signed on with Chicago on a major league deal this past winter when he hit free agency after being outrighted off of the Brewers’ 40-man roster. A former top-100 prospect who had bounced between Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee and had significant success as a pure reliever with the Brewers back in 2023, it was understandable for the Sox to jump at the chance to bring him in on a one-year, $1.05MM deal this winter. The White Sox did not return Wilson to the full-time relief role he had previously found success in, however, and instead used him as a swing man.

It was not a decision that went over especially well. Wilson immediately struggled after giving up his first run of the year during a three-inning outing on April 4, and went on to post a 7.33 ERA across his next 43 innings before being designated for assignment and outrighted off the club’s roster back in June. While he was briefly brought back to the majors after Aaron Civale was claimed off waivers by the Cubs, his two scoreless innings of work evidently weren’t enough to wash away his deep struggles from earlier in the season and he was designated for assignment once again shortly thereafter.

While Wilson certainly had the opportunity to elect free agency rather than stick around the organization, it’s worth noting that he would’ve forfeited the remainder of his 2025 salary by doing so due to having less than five years of MLB service time. Wilson could be retained via arbitration if added back to the 40-man roster before the end of the season, but the most likely outcome is that he’ll simply head back into free agency this winter. After posting an ugly 6.65 ERA with the White Sox this year, it seems likely that Wilson will be limited to minor league deals.

Perhaps Wilson’s next season could be a more fruitful one if his next club opts to keep him in a pure relief role. Of the 35 earned runs Wilson has allowed with Chicago this year, 27 of them were in outings where he pitched more than two innings. That works out to a 7.36 ERA allowed in outings lasting longer than two frames, even worse than his season-long numbers. As previously mentioned, Wilson’s best season being with the Brewers in 2023, for whom he never threw more than 53 pitches in an outing. By contrast, Wilson threw more pitches than that in eight of his 20 appearances with the White Sox this year.

Whatever lies ahead for Wilson, he’ll be a non-roster depth pitcher for the White Sox in the short-term. Chicago currently has Tyler Alexander and Tyler Gilbert pitching in long relief roles, with arms like Jonathan Cannon and Sean Burke on the 40-man roster as potential options to come up and help out if needed. That leaves Wilson fairly buried on the depth chart, though it’s possible the club will keep Cannon and Burke in the minors through the end of the season for development purposes.

Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

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While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Team Will Make The Postseason?
Seattle Mariners 58.73% (2,190 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 14.86% (554 votes)
Texas Rangers 14.62% (545 votes)
Kansas City Royals 11.80% (440 votes)
Total Votes: 3,729

The Opener: Sproat, Brewers, Jays, Yankees

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Sproat to debut:

The Mets are expected to bring right-hander Brandon Sproat to the big leagues this Sunday. He’s ticketed to start Sunday afternoon’s game against the Reds in Cincinnati. A second-rounder in the 2023 draft, Sproat made it all the way to Triple-A during his first pro season last year and this year has spent the entire season at the level. In 26 appearances (25 starts) with Syracuse this year, he’s posted a 4.24 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate across 121 innings of work. Sproat joins Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong as pitching prospects who have come up to help impact the club down the stretch. The Mets already have six pitchers in their rotation, but it appears that the club may be considering asking veteran righty Kodai Senga to accept being optioned to Triple-A. That would open up a spot in the rotation for Sproat, but it’s also possible that Senga refuses to be optioned. Regardless of what happens regarding Senga, a 40-man roster move will be needed to accommodate Sproat’s promotion.

2. Brewers IL move coming?

The Brewers are set to place one of their relief pitchers on the injured list, according to a report from MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Manager Pat Murphy declined to say who that was they’d be placing on the shelf, but he did describe him as a “significant” reliever. McCalvy went on to note that both Abner Uribe and Jared Koenig warmed up during yesterday’s loss to the Phillies, which would suggest that neither of them is currently injured. That would seem to indicate that the injured player is Nick Mears, who has a 3.42 ERA in 59 appearances with Milwaukee this year. The specifics of the situation will become more clear later today when the club makes a roster move prior to today’s game against the Pirates. Robert Gasser and Chad Patrick are among the more interesting names who could join the club’s pitching staff to fill the vacated roster spot.

3. Series Preview: Blue Jays @ Yankees

A series with major consequences for the AL East is set to start later today as the Blue Jays head to the Bronx for a three-game set against the Yankees. Toronto currently has a three-game lead over New York, meaning that a sweep by the Yanks would bring them into a tie for control of the AL East. Veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman (3.75 ERA) will take on rookie Cam Schlittler (2.61 ERA in nine starts) in game one later today, followed by a match-up between Luis Gil (3.68 ERA in six starts) and Max Scherzer (4.11 ERA in 13 starts) on Saturday. The series will wrap up Sunday with Chris Bassitt (4.10 ERA) on the mound opposite southpaw Max Fried (2.98 ERA). It’s a series that could also have big implications for the Red Sox, who will be in Arizona facing the Diamondbacks this weekend and could gain ground in the standings if they manage to pull off a sweep while their two divisional opponents split the series.

Poll: Will Anything Shake Up The NL Playoff Picture?

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The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:

The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.

While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.

Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.

That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.

As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.

What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:

Will Any Of The Division Leaders In The NL Change By The End Of The Regular Season?
No 67.73% (1,448 votes)
Yes 32.27% (690 votes)
Total Votes: 2,138
How Will The NL Wild Card Race Shake Out?
The teams currently in playoff position will hold onto their spots. 64.08% (1,577 votes)
The Giants will make the playoffs. 20.07% (494 votes)
The Reds will make the playoffs. 10.12% (249 votes)
Another team will make the playoffs. 5.73% (141 votes)
Total Votes: 2,461

The Opener: Dodgers, Pitchers’ Duel, Rays, Guardians

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Dodgers roster move incoming?

The Dodgers had an injury scare yesterday when star catcher Will Smith took a foul ball off of his throwing hand and exited the game. MLB.com’s Sonja Chen writes that x-rays on Smith’s hand came back negative, but given the importance of having multiple catchers available at all times, it wouldn’t be a shock if Los Angeles made a roster move to shore up their catching depth in the event that Smith is even day-to-day. Ben Rortvedt seems like the most likely choice to join the Dodgers’ roster in the event a third catcher is needed, but Chuckie Robinson and Chris Okey are also available at Triple-A. None of those players are on the 40-man roster, meaning they would need their contract to be selected before being brought up to the majors.

2. Pitchers’ duel in Pittsburgh:

Speaking of the Dodgers, they’re in Pittsburgh for a series against the Pirates. Today’s game will feature a particularly exciting pitching matchup, as the Dodgers will send two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (2.41 ERA) to the mound for his eighth start of the season opposite likely NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes, who has a 2.05 ERA across 28 starts and has struck out 28.6% of his opponents. While Snell has missed most of the 2025 campaign due to injury, the lefty sports a 31.7% strikeout rate with a 2.78 ERA since the start of the 2022 season. The two aces will face off at 6:40pm local time in Pittsburgh this evening.

3. Series Preview: Guardians @ Rays

Despite both clubs entering deadline season as sellers, the Guardians and Rays have managed to hang around the periphery of the AL Wild Card race into September. Cleveland is just three games back of the Mariners as they head to Tampa for a four-game set this weekend. The Rays are even closer at just 2.5 games back. That makes this upcoming series one that could have massive implications on the outlooks of both franchises. Things will kick off later today with Logan Allen (4.42 ERA) on the mound for Cleveland opposite Ryan Pepiot (3.70 ERA). On Friday, Guardians righty Gavin Williams (3.26 ERA) will take on Rays rookie Ian Seymour, who has a 2.97 ERA in 33 1/3 innings. Tanner Bibee (4.77 ERA) and Shane Baz (4.98 ERA) will face off on Saturday as they both try to finish strong amid disappointing seasons. The series will wrap on Sunday with Guardians rookie Parker Messick (2.08 ERA in three starts) taking on Rays righty Drew Rasmussen (2.74 ERA).

Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?

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Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.

The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.

How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:

Will the Astros win the AL West?
Yes 57.81% (1,951 votes)
No 42.19% (1,424 votes)
Total Votes: 3,375

The Opener: Anthony, Judge, Tucker

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Anthony exits with injury:

The Red Sox mounted an impressive comeback win in their game against the Guardians yesterday, but the mood was dampened by the fact that budding star Roman Anthony exited the game due to an oblique injury. After the game, Anthony spoke to reporters (including Tim Healey of the Boston Globe) and noted that this oblique injury is “definitely worse” than the day-to-day back injury he dealt with a few weeks ago. It’s unclear what sort of timeline for return to action Anthony might be facing. With a .292/.396/.463 batting line (138 wRC+) since being called up to the majors, Anthony has been the team’s most consistent hitter of the second half. Losing Anthony for any amount of time when the Sox are trying to erase a 2.5-game deficit to chase down the division-leading Blue Jays could be backbreaking for the team.

2. Judge pushes into Yankees history:

Aaron Judge rounded out the month of August in a big way by crushing his 43rd homer of the season on Sunday. That blast, as noted by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, pushed Judge into a tie with Yogi Berra for fifth place in Yankees history. Judge’s next blast will not only give him sole possession of fifth place in franchise history — it’ll leave him just three homers shy of surpassing the great Joe DiMaggio, who sits fourth with 361 round-trippers. Though that fourth-place spot is within reach for Judge this season, he still has a long way to go before he can even think of cracking the top three. Lou Gehrig, currently third all-time in Yankee homers, finished his career with 493. For now, Judge will continue hunting for No. 359 against Astros righty Jason Alexander and his 4.61 ERA later today.

3. Tucker exits with injury:

After a lengthy slump that led to a brief benching, Kyle Tucker appears to be back to his usual self. Since returning to the Cubs’ lineup on Aug. 21, he’s batting .364/.462/.727 (227 wRC+) in 52 plate appearances, capping that stretch off by crushing a three-run homer against Atlanta last night. Unfortunately, he’s hit a bit of a speed bump in that turnaround. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian notes that Tucker was pulled from yesterday’s game due to soreness in his calf.

Manager Craig Counsell said after the game that Tucker would be out of Wednesday’s lineup ahead of a Thursday off-day, thus giving him two full days to rest before he’s reevaluated Friday. The Cubs are virtual playoff locks — they’re five games back of the Brewers in the NL Central but ten games up on the Reds in the Wild Card scene — so they can afford to be a little more cautious than other contenders who are fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive.

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