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The Opener: Lopez, MRIs, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for today:

1. Lopez going under the knife:

Last week, Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that right-hander Reynaldo Lopez’s arthroscopic shoulder surgery is scheduled for today. As noted by David O’Brien of The Athletic, the extent of repair necessary won’t be known until surgery begins. A simple cleanup could have Lopez back on the mound this year, whereas a more significant issue would threaten the remainder of his 2025 campaign. Some sort of timetable for Lopez’s return seems likely to be made available once the procedure is complete. In the meantime, the Braves are relying on AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder in the rotation behind Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach.

2. Robles, Marte await MRI results:

Mariners outfielder Victor Robles and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte were placed on the injured list over the weekend due to a shoulder injury and hamstring strain, respectively. Both were serious enough issues that neither Seattle nor Arizona felt the need to wait for testing before making an IL stint official, and both players were scheduled to undergo MRIs yesterday, per Adam Jude of The Seattle Times and Alex Weiner of AZSports. When those results become available, fans should have a better idea of how long the Mariners will be without their leadoff man and how long the D-backs will be without their superstar hitter. Seattle called up outfielder Dominic Canzone while Robles is out of commission, though many Robles’ right field reps could go to Luke Raley, with Rowdy Tellez slotting in at first base and several players cycling through the DH spot in the lineup. Rookie Tim Tawa has filled in at second for Marte, and utilityman Garrett Hampson could see time there as well.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

Each MLB team is now around ten games into the season, and some expected contenders like those in Atlanta and Arizona have struggled while more surprising teams like the Giants and Angels have done quite well for themselves. There’s still plenty of baseball left to go, however, and if you have questions about which starts to believe in or are already looking towards July’s trade deadline then MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Astros Select Logan VanWey

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April 7: Per Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle, the moves are now official. Garcia was transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for VanWey.

April 6: The Astros are promoting right-hander Logan VanWey to the majors, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. VanWey’s contract will be selected from the minor leagues and he’ll join the team during their coming trip to Seattle, which begins with a game tomorrow evening. The righty’s first appearance for the Astros will be his big league debut. Alexander reports that right-hander Luis Contreras will be optioned to the minors to make room for VanWey on the active roster. The club will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate the addition of VanWey, although this could be easily accomplished by transferring right-hander Luis Garcia to the 60-day injured list.

VanWey, 26, went undrafted out of college and was signed by the Astros out of the Pioneer League, where he made nine starts with the Glacier Range Riders. After being signed by Houston in 2022, VanWey threw eight scoreless innings for the club’s Florida Complex League team but didn’t make his full-season debut until 2023. The right-hander was initially assigned to the High-A level to open the season, but his 3.71 ERA in 17 innings of work combined with a 25.6% strikeout rate was enough to get him a promotion to Double-A. VanWey did even better at the new level, with a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings of work with an amazing 32.5% strikeout rate, though it did come with an elevated 13.2% walk rate.

Nonetheless, VanWey made it to the Triple-A level during his first full season in affiliated ball. While he was torched for three runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work during that first stint with the Astros’ Sugar Land affiliate, he posted far better numbers in a full season at the level last year. In all, VanWey worked 72 2/3 innings across 60 appearances in 2024 with a 3.22 ERA, a 31.5% strikeout rate, and a 12.9% walk rate. While that wildness still stood out as a potential concern, the right-hander’s overall numbers were made all the more impressive by the fact that he was pitching in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League; just three pitchers with at least 40 innings of work at the level posted a lower ERA than VanWey for the Space Cowboys last year.

That strong performance earned VanWey the chance to compete for a job in the Astros’ bullpen this spring. He did quite well for himself, with a 1.32 ERA in 13 2/3 frames. His 26.8% strikeout rate was below his usual expectations, but a solid 8.9% walk rate more than made up for that. Even so, VanWey was left off of the club’s Opening Day roster and reported to Triple-A to open the year, where he’s struck out a third of his opponents across four outings. His latest stint in the minors appears to be over for the time being, however, as VanWey will now reportedly head to Seattle to join the big league Astros. Going from an undrafted free agent pitching in indy ball to the majors in just three years is an accomplishment by itself, but now the 26-year-old will be tasked with getting big league hitters out and contributing to an Astros bullpen that has little certainty outside of its dynamic late-inning duo of Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader.

As for Contreras, the 28-year-old righty made his big league debut last year with a brief cup of coffee that lasted just six innings. This year, he’s surrendered two runs in three innings of work but struck out an excellent 46.2% of his opponents in his limited time in the majors since the start of the season. He sports a career 3.65 ERA in 101 frames at Triple-A and will likely be an up-and-down reliever riding the shuttle between the majors and Triple-A for the Astros throughout the year given his high-octane stuff and ability to be optioned to the minors.

Poll: Automated Ball-Strike System In MLB

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After years of fans and people around the game alike advocating for it, the automated ball-strike system was implemented in big league Spring Training this year. That was widely believed to portend its arrival in the majors, which MLB commissioner Rob Manfred all but confirmed in an interview published yesterday where he suggested that the system could be in regular season games as soon as the 2026 season, pending approval from the MLBPA. With that being said, Manfred suggested that the details of how ABS is implemented into the majors could wind up being collectively bargained. If that’s the case, its implementation could be delayed until after the upcoming CBA negotiations following the 2026 season.

During Spring Training, a challenge system was used not unlike the one already utilized in the majors for instant replay on the bases. Each team started the game with two challenges available to them, and would retain their challenge after using it successfully or lose it after using it incorrectly. As noted by Ronald Blum of the Associated Press just before Opening Day, teams challenged 2.6% of called pitches during the spring with just over four challenges per game and a success rate of 52.2% overall. If those numbers were to hold, that would mean the ABS challenge system overturns just two ball-strike calls in the average regular season game.

While official reports on the accuracy of ball-strike calls from MLB umpires are not available, a report published by Boston University’s Mark T. Williams that looked at the issue back in 2019 using data from the 2018 campaign suggested that MLB umpires made 14 incorrect ball-strike calls per game that year. If that figure holds true into today, that would mean that the challenge system overturns less than 15% of incorrect ball-strike calls made. What’s more, Williams’s report suggests that umpires tend to make more mistakes in certain situations, such as calling true balls as strikes in two-strike counts. Despite that, there’s nothing in Blum’s data to suggest that more calls got overturned in those sorts of key situations than usual. While teams challenged 6.9% of full count calls, just 44% of those challenges were correct.

Given the relative lack of impact felt by the presence of the challenge system this spring, it’s easy to wonder if perhaps using a fully automated system that entirely removes umpire discretion from the equation would be preferable. It’s hard to dispute that it would lead to more accurately called games, which could have a far more significant impact on outcomes than the challenge system had during Spring Training. Manfred suggested in yesterday’s interview that umpires themselves would actually prefer a fully automated system to the challenge system currently being used, perhaps because it would avoid putting a spotlight on their mistakes.

On the other hand, it’s open for debate whether or not taking ABS to that level would be truly preferable. Incorrect calls aren’t necessarily innately bad; after all, fans, players, managers, and umpires have worked with a somewhat nebulous definition of the strike zone since the advent of baseball itself. What any individual thinks of as the strike zone is unlikely to be perfectly identical to the zone used in ABS, and that’s supported by the fact that nearly half of challenges made to umpire calls wound up being incorrect. That suggests players aren’t always more in tune with what the true strike zone looks like than umpires are, and a move to fully automated ball-strike calls could be a jarring adjustment for both pitchers and hitters as they adapt to a more accurate but wildly unfamiliar strike zone.

That could be part of why the players, according to Manfred, prefer a challenge system to fully automated ball-strike calls. Another factor in the players’ preference for a challenge system could be how full ABS would change the catcher position. Pitch framing has long been a key aspect of catcher defense behind the plate, and it’s become even more focused upon over the past decade. Players with elite framing skills like Jeff Mathis and Austin Hedges have managed to make careers out of their ability to steal strikes for their pitchers over the years, but a fully automated strike zone cannot be influenced by pitch framing.

A challenge system, meanwhile, still allows them to use their framing prowess to convince umpires (as well as a hitter considering a challenge) that a true ball was a strike. It even adds another level of intrigue to the catcher position, as Blum notes that catchers had the highest success rate when challenging ball-strike calls this spring. Catchers successfully overturned 56% of challenged ball-strike calls, compared to exactly 50% for hitters and just 41% for pitchers. Given the wide disparity between catchers and pitchers in terms of success rate at challenge ball-strike calls, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see most clubs have their catchers handle the majority of ball-strike calls when on defense under a challenge system.

How do MLBTR readers think the implementation of ABS should be handled? Should the league stick with the challenge system used in Spring Training despite its relatively low impact, or go to a fully-automated system despite potential player objections? Or perhaps you believe that ABS shouldn’t be used in the majors at all? Have your say in the poll below:

How Should ABS Be Implemented In The Majors?
ABS should be utilized through a challenge system like the one used in Spring Training this year. 55.13% (3,699 votes)
ABS should replace the home plate umpire by calling every pitch. 28.69% (1,925 votes)
ABS should not be used in the major leagues. 16.17% (1,085 votes)
Total Votes: 6,709

Cardinals Place Ivan Herrera On Injured List, Select Yohel Pozo

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April 7: The Cardinals made these moves official today. To open the necessary 40-man spot, left-hander Zack Thompson was transferred to the 60-day IL. He was shut down in early March due to a tear in his left lat muscle. He is now ineligible to be reinstated until 60 days from Opening Day, which would be late May.

April 6: The Cardinals are planning to place catcher Ivan Herrera on the injured list due to left knee inflammation tomorrow, as club manager Oli Marmol told ESPN’s Buster Olney on this evening’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast. Marmol added that initial test results came back clean on Herrera’s knee and that it remains structurally sound despite the impending IL placement. As relayed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals will select the contract of catcher Yohel Pozo to pair with Pedro Pages behind the plate while Herrera is on the shelf. A 40-man roster spot will need to be vacated to accommodate Pozo.

As noted by Goold earlier today, Herrera’s injury occurred during Game 1 of a double-header between the Red Sox and Cardinals this afternoon and required Herrera to be helped off the field after he felt discomfort when running from first to third on a single. Herrera appeared to be doing better later in the day, as John Denton of MLB.com notes that the backstop was moving around the clubhouse without pain during the layoff between today’s two games against Boston. Even so, it’s hardly a surprise that Herrera is headed for the injured list given physical toll that catching takes on a player’s knees. With Herrera suffering from knee inflammation, that could mean a fairly significant absence even with imaging having revealed no structural damage.

It’s a substantial loss for the Cardinals. Herrera has enjoyed a scorching start to the year, hitting .400/.455/1.100 in his first 22 plate appearances this year with four home runs, three of which came during a single game against the Angels earlier this week. That’s obviously a small sample size, but even Herrera’s career slash line in the majors entering play today sat at an impressive .296/.371/.444, good for a wRC+ of 130 across 102 games. That’s a strong mark for any hitter, but it’s nothing short of phenomenal from the catcher position and would make Herrera one of the best offensive backstops in the sport if maintained over the full 2025 campaign.

Any hope of that will have to be put on hold for now, however, as Herrera is ticketed for the injured list for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, it appears that Pages will step in as the club’s regular catcher. Pages has gotten off to a solid start this year in his own right, going 4-for-10 with a double and a homer against just one strikeout in five games. The 26-year-old is generally not regarded as offering the same offensive ceiling as Herrera, however, and hit just .238/.281/.376 in 68 games for the Cardinals last year. With that being said, he’s a solid defensive catcher who can offer consistently passable offense behind the plate and should have little trouble holding things down while Herrera is away.

Perhaps more interesting than Pages’s turn as the starting catcher is the club’s plans for the backup catcher spot on the club. Veteran Willson Contreras spent the entirety of his big league career as a catcher until this offseason, when the Cardinals moved him to first base. Though generally regarded as an average-to-below-average defensive option behind the plate, Contreras has generally been serviceable as a bat-first catcher throughout his career. That made it something of a shock that the club is not only opting to call up Pozo to serve as Pages’s backup, but that the club didn’t even use Contreras behind the plate during today’s double-header, instead having Pages catch nearly two full games. That suggests that Contreras won’t even be used behind the plate on an emergency basis, even though a lineup with him behind the plate and Alec Burleson or Luken Baker at first base would surely be more offensively robust than one featuring either Pages or Pozo.

Regardless, with Contreras locked in at first base it seems that backup catching duties will go to Pozo for the time being. The 27-year-old made his big league debut with the Rangers back in 2021 but hasn’t appeared in the majors since. He got into 21 games with Texas that year, hitting a decent .284/.312/.378 in 77 plate appearances along the way. In the years since then, Pozo has been serving as a depth option for the Rangers, Athletics, and now Cardinals at the Triple-A level and has done nothing but rake while doing so. In 329 games across five seasons at the Triple-A level, Pozo has slashed a strong .321/.343/545. While he can’t be reasonably expected to post anything close to that in the majors, his strong work at the highest level of the minors does suggest he may be able to offer some pop in his bat, making him a solid partner for Pages behind the plate while Herrera is out.

Adam Ottavino Re-Signs With Yankees

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April 7: The Yanks made it official today, announcing that Ottavino has been re-signed and added to the active roster.

April 6: The Yankees announced this evening that Ottavino has cleared waivers and elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the minor leagues. SNY’s Andy Martino reported shortly thereafter that the Yankees are re-signing Ottavino. It’s unclear if it’s a major or minor league deal, but either way it appears the that the veteran will be joining the club in Detroit for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers. Southpaw Brent Headrick was optioned to the minors this evening, meaning no corresponding move will be necessary to bring Ottavino back into the fold as the 40-man roster spot created by Ottavino’s own departure has not yet been filled.

April 4: The Yankees announced this morning that they have designated right-hander Adam Ottavino for assignment. The move opens up a roster spot for closer Devin Williams, who is returning from the paternity list.

Ottavino, 39, is in his 15th season as a big league player. The veteran made his big league debut in St. Louis with 22 1/3 innings of work back in 2010 but didn’t stick consistently in the majors until 2012 as a member of the Rockies bullpen. Ottavino made a name for himself across seven seasons in Colorado as a rare pitcher who was able to post consistently above-average results despite calling Coors Field home, with a 3.41 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.42 FIP across 390 2/3 innings of work in a Rockies uniform.

Since the start of the 2019 season, however, Ottavino has pitched on the east coast. The right-hander signed with the Yankees on a three-year deal in January of 2019, and in 73 appearances for the club that year he immediately made good on the deal with a sterling 1.90 ERA and a 31.1% strikeout rate. Things took a turn for the worse during the shortened 2020 season, however, as Ottavino struggled to the first below-average ERA of his career since arriving in Colorado and ultimately had his salary dumped to the Red Sox ahead of the final year of his deal. That year saw him bounce back somewhat, though his 4.21 ERA (112 ERA+) and 3.96 FIP were still that of a solid middle reliever rather than a quality set-up man.

The right-hander returned to New York in 2022, though this time he pitched in Queens rather than the Bronx. He ultimately spent three seasons with the Mets, posting a solid 3.14 ERA (128 ERA+) with a 3.66 FIP during that time. His effectiveness began to decline over the course of that time as he entered his late 30s, however, and his 3.75 ERA (111 ERA+) and 4.11 FIP in 117 2/3 innings over the past two years were far more pedestrian. After putting up a below-average 91 ERA+ in his final year with the Mets, Ottavino was unable to find a big league guarantee on the open market this winter. He pitched for the Red Sox in Spring Training this year, but was lit up to the tune of six runs in five innings of work.

Ultimately, the veteran did not make Boston’s Opening Day roster and was granted his release. That gave him the opportunity to sign with the Yankees earlier this week, though he ended up making just two appearances during this second stint in the Bronx. Overall, he threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings for the Yankees during his brief return to the club, with zero hits allowed and two strikeouts against two walks. Going forward, the Yankees will have one week to either work out a trade involving Ottavino or try to pass him through waivers. If he goes through waivers unclaimed, the Yankees could attempt to outright him to the minors but Ottavino has more than enough service time to reject that assignment in favor of free agency should he so choose.

Ottavino’s departure makes way for the return of Williams, who the club acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes over the offseason. The NL Rookie of the Year in 2020 and a two-time All-Star, Williams has made a name for himself as one of the best closers in the game after posting a 1.83 ERA and 2.39 FIP in 235 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers over the years. The start to his Yankees career began inauspiciously with a run allowed in his first outing, but there’s little doubt that the righty will be able to get things back on track now that he’s back with the club.

The Opener: Cardinals, Jansen, Pitchers’ Duel

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On the heels of last night’s massive extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Cardinals 40-man roster move incoming:

After catcher Ivan Herrera went down with knee inflammation that will require a trip to the injured list yesterday, it was reported that the Cardinals are selecting the contract of catcher Yohel Pozo to backup Pedro Pages behind the plate while Herrera is on the shelf. The Cardinals have a full 40-man roster, however, and as such they’ll need to create space for Pozo by designating one of their players for assignment in order to add their new backstop to the roster. The decision to add Pozo rather than simply call up a position player already on the 40-man like Michael Helman or Jose Fermin is a notable one because the Cardinals could theoretically just use first baseman Willson Contreras, who spent his entire career as a catcher prior to moving to first this offseason, as the backup for Pages. Instead, however, they’ll bring in a back-up from Triple-A to allow Contreras to continue focusing on first base.

2. Jansen ties Smith:

Yesterday, Angels closer Kenley Jansen recorded the 1,225th strikeout of his career in a scoreless ninth inning against the Guardians. With that punchout, Jansen tied Hall of Famer Lee Smith for fifth all-time on the strikeouts leaderboard as a reliever. The 37-year-old righty’s next K will give him sole possession of fifth on the all-time leaderboard, with fellow relief aces Aroldis Chapman (1,250) and Craig Kimbrel (1,265) currently sitting in the next two spots ahead of Jansen. Both are active players, but given that Kimbrel is on a minor league deal with Atlanta and has not yet pitched in the majors this year both Chapman and Jansen stand a solid chance of passing him at some point this season.

3. Reds, Giants scheduled for a pitchers’ duel:

The Reds are headed to Oracle Park in San Francisco for a three-game set against the Giants that begins this evening, with tonight’s game scheduled for 6:45pm local time. In a clash of pitching styles, Cincinnati is poised to send hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene to the mound opposite Giants sinkerballer Logan Webb. Both hurlers are among the best in the game at what they do, with Greene sporting a sterling 2.72 ERA in 28 starts dating back to last season thanks in large part to a 28.2% strikeout rate and his triple-digit fastball. Webb, meanwhile, is entering his fifth season as a front-of-the-rotation arm in San Francisco despite a far more pedestrian 22.4% strikeout rate due primarily to his phenomenal 59% groundball rate since the start of the 2021 season.

Rob Manfred Discusses Broadcasting Situation, ABS, Pitcher Health

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MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently conducted an interview with Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times where he discussed a variety of topics that have made headlines around the league of late, including the league’s plans for the future of MLB broadcasting, the future of the automated ball-strike system that was tested during Spring Training this year, and the ongoing conversation around the league regarding the rise in pitcher injuries over the past few years.

Regarding the broadcasting situation, Manfred once again acknowledged that any overarching changes to the status quo for broadcasting around the league will likely need to wait until after the 2028 season, when MLB’s national TV deals with FOX and TBS expire. The same was true of ESPN, though both the network and MLB decided to opt out of the final three years of that agreement earlier this year, leaving ESPN to stop broadcasting MLB games following the 2025 campaign. It has long seemed likely that the commissioner’s office has its sights set on a more all-encompassing streaming package that MLB.tv currently offers, and Manfred reiterated his desire to “get out of the business of blackouts” going forward.

None of that is exactly new information, but one thing Manfred did note is that fans in Japan may see a change in how they access MLB games when the league’s broadcasting deals expire after 2028. Manfred suggested to Schmidt that while the league has previously sold its broadcasting rights in Japan to Japanese broadcasting companies, that may no longer be the case in 2029 and beyond. Instead, Manfred suggested that the league’s international broadcasting rights, including those for Japan, could be sold to an international streaming company.

“I think [Japan] is vitally important from a business perspective,” Manfred told Schmidt. “When you can say to a streaming company, “I have the ability to deliver an audience of 25 million people in Japan for a game,” they’re interested.”

That would be a major change in the status quo for fans in Japan but could also result in a substantial windfall for the league, allowing them to leverage the league’s rapidly growing fanbase in Japan financially in a more impactful way. Manfred said as much during the interview, suggesting to Schmidt that the value of those broadcasting rights in the streaming market is “way more significant” than the value the league would be able to extract by continuing to sell to traditional broadcasters in Japan.

It’s against that backdrop of upcoming potential streaming deals, both domestic and international, that the next round of collective bargaining between the league and the MLB Players Association will occur. The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire in December of 2026, and while that’s still more than 18 months away the possibility of another lockout after one disrupted the 2021-22 offseason during the most recent CBA negotiations has been widely discussed. Just last month, MLBPA chief Tony Clark indicated that the players’ association expects a lockout following the 2025 season, and recent discontent among fans regarding the disparity in spending between the league’s top teams and those at the bottom has teed up a potential fight over the club’s economic system.

The league has frequently pushed for a salary cap over the years, even as the MLBPA has always considered the idea a complete non-starter. While Manfred did not discuss the idea of a cap directly in his interview with Schmidt, he did make clear that he is “cognizant” of and “sympathetic” to fan frustrations regarding the disparity in spending among MLB clubs. He went on to note that teams that are outspent by the top teams can overcome that disparity, as seen in the past successes of smaller-market clubs like the Brewers and Guardians, though he suggested that the perception of inevitability surrounding top spenders like the Dodgers and Mets can impact ticket sales for smaller clubs.

“The outcome result is not perfectly correlated with the spending,” Manfred told Schmidt, “But the fact of the matter is the inability or the constant failure to spend affects the business in a way that’s bad for it.”

Manfred went on to agree “one hundred percent” with Schmidt when asked if the disparity in spending “is a massive problem” that the league needs to address. MLBTR readership clearly agrees, as a poll from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes back in January found that two-thirds of respondents want a salary cap to be instituted in the next round of CBA negotiations, while just over half of respondents went as far as to suggest they would be willing to lose the entirety of the 2027 campaign if it meant that a salary cap would be put into place.

It should be noted that while a salary cap is the most often discussed way to reduce payroll disparity, it’s far from the only method. Many smaller market clubs do not spend in a way that’s commensurate with the revenue sharing dollars they receive. The MLBPA has filed grievances against the Pirates, Rays, Athletics, and Marlins in the past over just that issue, and the A’s needed to spend aggressively this winter in order to get in line and avoid an additional grievance. The Marlins, meanwhile, are risking a grievances by going into the 2025 season with a projected payroll of just under $70MM according to RosterResource, and that’s a figure that could drop further if a pricey veteran like Sandy Alcantara gets dealt at some point this season.

The possibility of a salary cap won’t be the only thing discussed during this next round of CBA negotiations, however, and Manfred’s comments to Schmidt could give the public a window into some other issues that could be discussed. Expansion has been covered in past agreements and remains something Manfred has an eye toward, as the commissioner told Schmidt that he hopes to have the cities selected by the time his final term as commissioner ends in 2029. Aside from that, a major topic of discussion in recent years has been how to mitigate pitcher injuries. As Manfred noted to Schmidt, the incentives for both players and teams as things stand are for both to pursue velocity and spin rate over effectiveness.

That analytics have shown premium stuff to be extremely valuable cannot be debated, and it’s true that teams have increasingly rewarded players with big strikeout numbers, high velocity, and impressive spin rates that all could correlate with an increased risk of injury. A notable point Manfred made in his interview with Schmidt, however, was that the guaranteed contracts offered in baseball skew player incentives away towards maximizing effectiveness rather than staying healthy.

“From a competitive perspective, it’s absolutely clear to young people that we pay for velocity and spin rate,” Manfred told Schmidt. “…So you get injured and they fix you up and you go right back and you do it again. Under our system, because it’s basically all guaranteed money, you get paid. So the incentives there that apply on the athlete are really misdirected. They actually encourage behavior that increases injuries.”

While Manfred did not outright suggest that the guaranteed nature of free agent contracts in MLB could be up for debate during this next round of CBA negotiations, that the commissioner brought it up when discussing the need to “alter incentives” for players and clubs in order to keep pitchers healthy is very notable. Some sports leagues such as the NFL allow contracts that aren’t fully guaranteed, meaning the club may not necessarily have to pay the player in event of injury, but that’s not the case in MLB and would of course need to be collectively bargained with the MLBPA. Much like a salary cap, that seems very likely to be a nonstarter with the union.

One other notable item that Manfred suggested more directly could be part of the next round of CBA negotiations is the automated ball-strike system. ABS was introduced to big league Spring Training games this year as a challenge system, which was mostly viewed as a success around the league. That’s led to plenty of interest in ABS being adopted in regular season games, and Manfred suggested to Schmidt that its arrival could come as soon as 2026. With that being said, Manfred noted he was “uncertain” of that because the union would have to approve it for the 2026 season and suggested that “it would not be shocking” if the union pushed for the specifics of ABS to be resolved during the next round of CBA negotiations after the 2026 season.

On the topic of ABS, Manfred noted that the Umpires’ union (with which the possible implementation of ABS has already been collectively bargained) actually preferred fully automated ball-strike calls as opposed the challenge system used in Spring Training. Manfred noted that players have expressed a preference for the challenge system, in part to protect players who have made a career out of elite pitch-framing abilities from having their skills devalued. It seems as though the league is satisfied with the compromise of a challenge system given that it’s what was used in Spring Training this year, but if either the players decide they’re against the challenge system or the league decides to push for full ABS that could theoretically become an issue discussed in the upcoming round of CBA negotiations even if the challenge system were to get implemented for the 2026 campaign.

Victor Robles Carted Off Field With Shoulder Injury

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10:47pm: Ari Alexander of KPRC2 reports that Canzone is set to be recalled to the big leagues by the Mariners. That seemingly suggests that Robles is ticketed for the injured list, which Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported was likely earlier this evening, though no official move has been made to this point.

6:08pm: Mariners outfielder Victor Robles made an outstanding catch late in today’s game against the Giants, but the moment quickly turned worrisome when Robles crashed into the right field netting in foul territory. As noted by multiple reporters, including Adam Jude of The Seattle Times and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, Robles exited the game and was carted off the field clutching his left arm. As noted by Jude, manager Dan Wilson told reporters that Robles suffered a shoulder injury and is undergoing initial tests to determine the exact issue.

It’s potentially devastating news for the Mariners, for whom Robles has emerged as a spark plug in all aspects of the game since he was signed by Seattle back in June after being released by the Nationals earlier that year. In 77 games for Seattle the rest of the way, Robles hit a phenomenal .328/.393/.467 with a wRC+ of 154. He also played solid defense across all three outfield spots and went 30-for-31 on the basepaths en route to 3.2 fWAR in just 262 trips to the plate for the Mariners last year. It was such a strong performance that the club signed Robles to a two-year extension that guarantees him $9.75MM and keeps him under team control through the end of the 2027 season thanks to a $9MM team option for a third year.

That 2024 breakout season represented a remarkable comeback for Robles, who was considered the best prospect in the Nationals’ system and among the top prospects in the entire sport as he came up through the minor leagues alongside Juan Soto. Unfortunately, injuries have dogged Robles all throughout his career. He appeared in just 530 games in parts of eight seasons in D.C. due to elbow, ankle, back, and hamstring injuries among other ailments. He’s only had one full season in the majors over the years, his 2019 rookie season with the club, and since then has only reached even 400 plate appearances in a season a single time.

It’s impossible to say with certainty to what extent the injuries led to Robles, who hit a disappointing .236/.311/.356 during his time with the Nationals, to under perform the expectations associated with his top prospect status. Even so, it’s without a doubt that both he and the Mariners were surely hoping his fresh start in Seattle last year would afford him the opportunity to prove himself healthy and effective in the big leagues over an extended period of time. While even an approximate timetable for Robles’s return to action won’t be clear until the Mariners provide more details regarding the nature of his injury, it seems safe to say that Robles will miss at least some time due to the injury.

In terms of options to replace Robles in the lineup, they’re relatively few and far between. Dylan Moore has gotten off to a hot start this year but is currently stepping in for Jorge Polanco at third base while Polanco nurses a sore knee. Dominic Canzone is on the 40-man roster at Triple-A and capable of playing the outfield, or the club could move Luke Raley from first base back into the outfield while giving first base to some combination of Donovan Solano, Austin Shenton, and Tyler Locklear. Regardless of which options they ultimately go with to fill in for Robles while he’s out, an extended absence from the outfielder could be tough for the club to handle given their relatively lackluster depth options on the positional side of things.

NL West Notes: Ohtani, Gomber, Birdsong

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The Dodgers have been taking things slowly with superstar Shohei Ohtani as he prepares for his return to pitching. After just over a month off from regular bullpen sessions, Ohtani resumed throwing last weekend and threw another bullpen session earlier today. As noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Ohtani threw 26 pitches, and for the first time this year he included his splitter in the bullpen session. This came after what Plunkett described as a “light” bullpen session on Thursday. While that’s a noticeable ramp-up in activity, it shouldn’t be mistaken for the Dodgers accelerating Ohtani’s timeline back to the big league mound.

According to Plunkett, manager Dave Roberts indicated that the club hopes to replicate something akin to the schedule Ohtani will have when he returns to the big league mound as a starter by having him throw off the mound twice a week: once with a lighter bullpen session on Thursday followed by a full session on Saturday. Despite the superstar now getting back on the mound somewhat regularly, Plunkett notes that there’s still a long way to go before he’ll be ready to pitch in a big league game for the Dodgers. He relays that, per Roberts, the next step for Ohtani would be to incorporate his entire arsenal into his bullpen sessions rather than exclusively fastballs and an occasional splitter.

It won’t be until Ohtani is using his full arsenal that facing live hitters in simulated games, which the Dodgers plan to use in lieu of a rehab assignment to get Ohtani up to game speed while still allowing him to continue serving as their everyday DH in the lineup, is on the table. He’ll surely need several of those outings before he’s ready to get into games, and Plunkett suggests that at this point a realistic timeline for Ohtani’s pitching debut with the Dodgers would be sometime in June “at the earliest.” In the meantime, the Dodgers are utilizing a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, and Dustin May. Both Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin could also return from the injured list before Ohtani is ready to pitch, giving the Dodgers a host of potential options for the rotation.

More from around the NL West…

  • Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber began the season on the injured list due to soreness in his left shoulder, and while he was sent out for a rehab assignment just after Opening Day with an eye towards returning after just the first couple of weeks of the season, he was scratched from his next rehab start due to shoulder inflammation. That paved the way for Colorado to promote Chase Dollander to the big leagues, and Thomas Harding of MLB.com spoke to Gomber in more detail about the situation today. According to Harding, Gomber wasn’t able to pitch at maximum effectiveness during his rehab start even after receiving an anti-inflammatory injection in his shoulder. As a result, Gomber noted that the plan now is for him to have a slower and “more traditional” rehab process. He won’t throw for another week while the inflammation calms down, and will likely not return to the mound for another two or three weeks after that.
  • While the Giants initially planned to use young right-hander Hayden Birdsong as a long reliever and piggyback starter after he lost out on the fifth starter job to Landen Roupp, it appears that may no longer be in the cards. As noted by Justice delos Santos of Mercury News, manager Bob Melvin told reporters today that the club is now treating Birdsong as a “true reliever” after his limited usage to begin the season. Birdsong has appeared just once in the Giants’ first week of games, making a two-inning appearance that saw him throw just 27 pitches.  With Birdsong no longer stretched out as a starter for the time being, Melvin suggested that a one-inning appearance for the righty could be on the table. Birdsong pitched exclusively as a starter in the majors last year, with a 4.75 ERA in 16 starts, and hadn’t made a relief appearance in the major or minor leagues at the Double-A level or higher at any point in his career prior to his 2025 debut.

Braves Notes: Strider, Murphy, Allen

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It’s been a tough start to the season for the Braves, who only won their first game of the season last night. On top of their struggles in the standings, the lineup lost Jurickson Profar when he was hit with an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test while the rotation will be without right-hander Reynaldo Lopez for the foreseeable future as the hurler is scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery. Brutal as the start of the season has been for fans in Atlanta, however, there is light at the end of the tunnel. MLB.com notes not only that right-hander Spencer Strider is scheduled to make a rehab start at Triple-A this coming Thursday, but that it could be his final outing before he returns to the majors.

A healthy and effective return to the big league rotation would be a game changer for the Braves, particularly after Lopez’s recent injury. While reigning AL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale and young righty Spencer Schwellenbach are both excellent starters, beyond that duo the club is currently relying on converted reliever Grant Holmes and a pair of youngsters with hit-or-miss track records as big leaguers in AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder. A more established pitcher would be very welcome, and Strider is more than simply established after he finished as the runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 before earning an All-Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting the following season.

Strider’s career 3.47 ERA is merely above-average (123 ERA+), but it belies his otherworldly 36.9% strikeout rate and 2.56 FIP, both of which place him among the very best pitchers in the entire sport. It would be unreasonable to assume that Strider will be able to provide that peak production this year given the number of players who have struggled while shaking off the rust of a long layoff. Nonetheless, even a somewhat diminished Strider is likely a front-of-the-rotation caliber, and the hurler’s 46.7% strikeout rate and 1.08 ERA through two rehab outings certainly don’t reveal any obvious signs of rust.

Strider isn’t the only notable player who could be returning to the roster soon for Atlanta. Catcher Sean Murphy is scheduled to make a nine-inning rehab appearance at Triple-A tomorrow. According to Bowman, that could be his final rehab outing if all goes well, with Murphy returning to the Atlanta lineup on Tuesday against the Phillies. It would be a huge boost to the Braves if Murphy were able to return so quickly after suffering a fractured rib last month. While his 2024 season was derailed by injury and saw him struggle when healthy enough to take the field, Murphy is not far removed from being considered the game’s best catcher and would be a huge boost to a struggling Atlanta lineup if he were to hit to even his career .233/.329/.429 slash line, to say nothing of the star-level offense he posted during the 2022 and ’23 seasons.

The return of Murphy to the lineup will likely spell the end of top catching prospect Drake Baldwin’s first stint in the big leagues, as he’s gone just 2-for-22 with three walks and five strikeouts through six games in the majors. While that’s not a sample size worth drawing any conclusions from, it would hardly be a shock if the club decided Baldwin was best served getting regular at-bats at Triple-A and opted to use Chadwick Tromp as their backup catcher going forward. With that being said, the club did recently add catcher Jason Delay to their 40-man roster in a trade with the Pirates and could therefore designate Tromp for assignment and still have a third catcher in the fold even if he were to depart via waivers or free agency. That could at least leave the door cracked open for Baldwin to backup Murphy in a larger role similar to the one Travis d’Arnaud held last year.

In other Braves news, The Athletic’s David O’Brien recently suggested that there could be a shakeup at shortstop coming down the pipeline for the club. Nick Allen was initially acquired to serve as a bench bat, but he’s hit a solid .333/.375/.400 so far while playing strong defense to this early point in the regular season. That strong early showing in conjunction with a lackluster spring from Orlando Arcia and his dreadful (2-for-13 with five strikeouts) start to the season could create an opening for Allen to seize a larger role with the club, particularly if the club’s early season struggles continue for longer than the season’s first week.

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