Vinnie Pasquantino To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
The Royals announced Wednesday that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino will require surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. He’s expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 season. “It’s tough,” Pasquantino told the Royals’ beat after the announcement (Twitter link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). “But this is something where we can just go ahead and attack this now and be better come 2024.”
It’s an awful development for an already last-place Royals club that has won the fewest games in baseball (18) and has the sport’s second-worst run differential (-104). The 25-year-old Pasquantino has proven to be an 11th-round steal in the 2019 draft, mashing his way to top prospect status before making his MLB debut in 2022. Dating back to last year, he’s played in 133 games and tallied 558 plate appearances for the Royals, batting .272/.355/.444 with 19 homers and 27 doubles.
Through the season’s first two months, Pasquantino boasted a .267/.343/.471 slash, but when the calendar flipped to June his bat evaporated. The lefty had just one hit in 23 June plate appearances. Given that there wasn’t one specific play on which the injury is known to have occurred, it’s certainly possible that it was impacting him throughout that cold streak before he ultimately landed on the injured list.
With Pasquantino on the injured list, fellow homegrown first baseman Nick Pratto will likely be given the everyday reins at first base. Kansas City had already been getting Pratto’s promising bat in the lineup as often as possible, giving him DH and corner outfield work to maximize his exposure to big league pitching. The results have been good, with the former No. 14 overall draft pick batting .281/.367/.425 in 169 plate appearances. Pratto, however, is also punching out at an untenable 34.3% rate and currently boasts a sky-high .430 BABIP. There’s likely some regression in store, particularly if he can’t cut back on that alarming strikeout rate.
Pasquantino has been one of the Royals’ only good hitters so far in 2023. He, Pratto, Salvador Perez, utilityman Matt Duffy and outfielder Edward Olivares are the only Kansas City hitters with even average offensive output, by measure of wRC+. The Royals currently sit 26th in MLB in team batting average (.230), 26th in slugging percentage (.378), 28th in runs scored (251) and 30th in on-base percentage (.293). Subtracting Pasquantino from an already inept offense is a gut punch. The Royals likely didn’t have any delusions about their standing at the trade deadline, but losing their promising young first baseman for the season only further solidifies them as a surefire seller.
Pasquantino will eventually be placed on the 60-day injured list whenever the Royals need to open a spot on the 40-man roster. He’ll continue to accrue Major League pay and service time while rehabbing, and he’ll finish out the 2023 season with exactly two years of MLB service time. That’ll keep him on track for arbitration eligibility following the 2024 season and free agency following 2027 season. An extension or a future optional assignment to the minors could change that outlook, of course.
Red Sox Shuffling Infield Alignment
The Red Sox are shuffling up their infield alignment, most notably dropping Enrique Hernandez from the everyday shortstop role and returning him to his more familiar split between center field and second base, manager Alex Cora announced to reporters last night (Twitter links via Alex Speier and Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). For the time being, utilityman Pablo Reyes will take the reins at shortstop. Cora also started Justin Turner at first base over Triston Casas last night, calling that the team’s best defensive alignment and noting that the Sox plan to work with Casas on his defense. (Turner, however, made a key error late in the eventual loss.)
Trevor Story‘s offseason elbow surgery threw a wrench into the Red Sox’ infield plans, prompting the team to sign Adam Duvall to man center field and push Hernandez to shortstop — a position where he’d logged just 163 innings in the preceding four seasons combined. The Sox also picked up Adalberto Mondesi in a trade with the Royals, hoping he’d bring some additional depth, but he’s yet to play in a game this season due to ongoing injury woes.
Hernandez, 31, proved himself to be a lights-out defender in center field during his first season with the Red Sox in 2021, and Defensive Runs Saved has long credited him as an above-average second baseman. The shift to a less-familiar shortstop position wasn’t necessarily expected to be easy, but it’s been far more difficult than the team envisioned. No player in baseball has more errors than the 14 Hernandez has committed in just 411 innings at short. Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Outs Above Average (-8) have graded him as one of the game’s six worst defenders at any position so far in 2023. As a team, the Red Sox rank 26th in MLB in DRS (-20) and are tied for last in OAA (-16).
Hernandez’s struggles haven’t been confined to his glovework. This year’s .228/.296/.356 is a near-mirror image of last year’s lackluster performance. When Boston inked Hernandez to a one-year, $10MM extension last summer, the hope was surely that his bat would rebound closer to it 2021 levels (.250/.337/.449) and that the versatile Hernandez would continue to provide premium defense at multiple spots. That hasn’t happened, and Hernandez’s trouble on both sides of the ball is just one of the many reasons Boston sits two games below .500 — 14 games out of the division lead and 5.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.
Casas, too, has fallen shy of expectations — particularly at the plate. Were the burly 24-year-old performing up to expectations with the bat, the team would likely be willing to live with any defensive shortcomings at first base. Instead, Casas is hitting just .200/.324/.368 with seven home runs. He’s walking at a sensational 15.8% clip but also fanning in 26.6% of his plate appearances. On top of that, he’s been dinged for -6 DRS and -4 OAA at first base.
The veteran Turner is outperforming Casas in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage alike thus far, and he’s looked comfortable enough in his 133 innings at first base that it seems the Sox are comfortable giving him some increased work there. Cora didn’t declare that there would be a full-time switch from Casas to Turner, but it certainly seems the Boston club is taking a hard look at its defense as it searches for ways to improve.
Story’s eventual return could help to solidify things in the infield, though he’ll likely return as a designated hitter before he takes any reps in the middle infield. Story said just this week that he’s hoping to return in a DH capacity sometime next month, but he isn’t likely to play any defense until August. Yu Chang‘s impending return could give the Sox a more experienced option at short than Reyes, though Chang is a utilityman with a career .206/.271/.358 batting line, so installing him into the lineup isn’t likely to help the Sox’ offense.
Giants Promote Luis Matos
The Giants announced Wednesday that they’ve recalled outfielder Luis Matos and infielder David Villar from Triple-A Sacramento. They also formally placed outfielder Mitch Haniger on the 10-day injured list following last night’s forearm fracture and optioned righty Keaton Winn to Sacramento.
The 21-year-old Matos is being thrown right into the fire, starting in center field and batting second in his MLB debut against the Cardinals and lefty Jordan Montgomery. It’s a nice vote of confidence in the former top prospect, who has bounced back from a dismal 2022 season (.215/.280/.356, mostly in High-A) to post a massive .350/.415/.561 showing between Double-A and Triple-A. The right-handed-hitting Matos has decimated left-handed pitching in particular, batting .375/.474/.729 in 57 plate appearances.
Last year’s rough showing dinged Matos’ prospect standing a bit, as he dropped off various top-100 lists after entering the ’22 season as a consensus entrant on such rankings. Baseball America still ranked him fifth among Giants farmhands heading into the season, however, tabbing him as a potential everyday outfielder if he can iron out some of the inconsistency and passivity he showed while trying to refine his approach at the plate last year. At least thus far, Matos has done just that. He’s fanned just 20 times in 249 plate appearances (8%) and draw 24 walks (9.6%).
With Haniger facing an extended absence and Matos rapidly rebuilding his stock in the minors, the latter now looks like he’ll receive a legitimate audition for an everyday role with the team moving forward. Manager Gabe Kapler said today that Haniger might require surgery, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link), though even in that scenario he’d have a chance at returning this year.
Still, it doesn’t sound as though Haniger will return to the lineup in particularly short order, so San Francisco’s front office and coaching staff will be able to use the opportunity to gauge Matos’ MLB readiness (or lack thereof). If he hits the ground running, they’ll boast a solid outfield trio of Matos, Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto, with Blake Sabol, Austin Slater, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Joc Pederson also on hand as options. In the event of further injuries and/or struggles from Matos, it’s feasible that outfield help could be an area of focus for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi heading into this year’s trade deadline. The Giants are six games out in the National League West but are also currently in possession of the third Wild Card spot in the NL standings.
Future optional assignments can always change a player’s free-agent and arbitration trajectories. For now, however, if Matos sticks in the big leagues he’d be arbitration-eligible after the 2026 season and under club control all the way through the 2029 campaign.
Yordan Alvarez Out At Least Four Weeks
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is likely to miss at least four weeks of action with his current oblique strain, general manager Dana Brown said in this morning’s appearance on the Sean Salisbury Show on SportsTalk 790 AM (audio link).
“It’s going to take at least two weeks for us to get a feel for how it’s healing,” said Brown. “You take those two weeks and then another week to figure out when he starts to have some activity, and OK, how’s his body responding? That’s three weeks right there. You’re looking at, once he’s starting to swing a bat, maybe it’s four weeks or so.”
Brown went on to note that the Astros will be cautious with Alvarez’s return, as they want to avoid a scenario where he rushes back and quickly requires another IL stint and an additional four weeks away from the lineup. Brown declined to put a specific timeline on the return, noting that the team won’t know exactly how quickly Alvarez can return until they see how his body responds to the current shutdown.
There’s no replacing a hitter of Alvarez’s caliber in any team’s lineup. The 25-year-old slugger is on the short list of MLB’s best hitters, batting .277/.388/.589 with 17 home runs this season and .293/.384/.590 with 115 home runs in just 1779 career plate appearances (an average of nearly 44 homers per 162 games played). The Astros currently rank 15th in the Majors both in runs scored (304) and in home runs (76). They’re hitting .246/.316/.401 as a team.
Brown also indicated that Michael Brantley is running, throwing and hitting without any pain at the moment. The 36-year-old veteran can’t replicate Alvarez’s production but could help soften the blow if he’s able to return from the injured list before Alvarez. Brantley hasn’t suited up for the Astros yet in 2023 as he continues to rehab from last year’s shoulder surgery, but he hit .288/.370/.416 with Houston last year and is a .306/.368/.464 hitter in his four prior seasons with the team.
Trevor Rosenthal To Undergo Elbow Surgery
Veteran right-hander Trevor Rosenthal is slated undergo elbow surgery next week, the Tigers announced within their latest wave of injury updates on minor league players. The former All-Star has been attempting a comeback with the Tigers, but he’s now headed for a revision on a prior Tommy John procedure. Detroit also announced that infielder Ryan Kreidler underwent core muscle surgery and that lefty Miguel Del Pozo had Tommy John surgery.
Rosenthal, 33, hasn’t pitched in the Majors since the 2020 season and has just 39 big league frames under his belt since the conclusion of the 2017 season. Injuries have derailed the career of the former Cardinals closer, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017 and thoracic outlet surgery in 2021. Rosenthal also had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip during the 2021 season.
A healthy Rosenthal has proven himself capable of being one of the sport’s top relievers. From 2012-15, he boasted a 2.66 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate, twice reaching 45 saves in a season along the way. His 2019 return from that 2017 Tommy John procedure was a disaster, but Rosenthal pitched 23 2/3 innings of 1.90 ERA ball while punching out 41.8% of his opponents during the shortened 2020 season. This will now be Rosenthal’s third surgery of note since his last big league pitch, however. He pitched in just three minor league games with the Tigers this year before landing on the injured list.
Kreidler, 25, has appeared in 37 games for the Tigers dating back to 2022 but has just a .165/.220/.209 slash in 102 big league plate appearances. He’s slashed .253/.374/.466 with 18 home runs and 22 steals through 446 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in his career, however, and is regarded as an above-average defender who can handle multiple spots around the infield (third base, shortstop and second base). He’s currently in physical therapy following the surgery. A timetable for his return wasn’t provided.
The 30-year-old Del Pozo returned to the Tigers on a minor league deal this offseason. He’d previously pitched 5 1/3 frames as a Tiger back in 2021 and also spent the 2022 season in their Triple-A bullpen, pitching to a 3.88 ERA in 53 1/3 frames. Del Pozo, who’s allowed 20 runs in 18 1/3 big league innings but has a more palatable 4.23 ERA in four Triple-A campaigns, appeared in just six games this season before landing on the injured list. The timing of this surgery will shelve him until late in the 2024 season and potentially all the way into the 2025 season.
Marlins Keeping An Eye On Catching Market
The Marlins have been monitoring the market for catching help with the trade deadline now under two months away, per Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. With the team currently sitting seven games above .500 — currently in possession of an NL Wild Card spot and just 3.5 games back of the division-leading Braves — they’re positioned to head into the 2023 deadline as a potential buyer.
Certainly, that stance could change in the coming weeks, depending on whether the team can sustain its hot start to the season. However, even if the Marlins approached the deadline from a seller’s standpoint, finding some long-term help behind the dish could still be a focus. The catcher position has been an area of need in Miami ever since J.T. Realmuto was traded. The team originally hoped that Jorge Alfaro, acquired in that Realmuto swap, could take the reins are the catcher of the future. That didn’t prove true, and a subsequent trade for defensive standout Jacob Stallings has proven similarly unsuccessful.
Stallings, 33, saw his vaunted defensive ratings plummet in his first year with Miami last season. They’ve rebounded to an extent so far in 2023, but the former Pirates backstop has seen his offensive production bottom out at career-worst levels. Stallings is hitting just .161/.238/.226 this season, and since Miami acquired him in the 2021-22 offseason he’s managed only a .210/.281/.278 slash. Paired with his surprisingly below-average defensive grades, the 2021 Gold Glove winner has played at a sub-replacement level since donning a Marlins jersey.
In light of this season’s struggles, Stallings has begun to cede playing time to 26-year-old Nick Fortes. While Fortes isn’t an offensive force himself, his .231/.280/.328 batting line outpaces what Stallings has been able to muster so far in 2023, and Fortes has drawn superior grades for his pitch blocking and pitch framing. Fortes, in fact, leads all big league catchers in Statcast’s new pitch blocking metric. (Stallings has been above-average as well.) Neither catcher has been able to control the running game at all; Fortes has just an 8% caught-stealing rate on the season, while Stallings is only marginally better at 12%. Stolen base success rate is up in general throughout the league with this year’s new rules, but the Fortes/Stallings tandem has allowed the sixth-most steals in MLB (63) and is tied for the fewest runners caught (seven).
Unfortunately for the Marlins — as is often the case, given the scarcity at the position — there doesn’t appear to be a particularly robust catching market on the horizon this summer. Veteran rentals like Yasmani Grandal and Tucker Barnhart (whose two-year deal has a 2024 player option) could become available, but neither is necessarily a major difference maker. Grandal is enjoying a somewhat resurgent .263/.328/.406 performance at the plate, but he’s earning $18.25MM this year and has the worst pop-time of any catcher in baseball (with a 15.5% caught-stealing rate himself). Barnhart hasn’t hit any better than Stallings has.
It’s feasible that some other veterans could hit the market once their respective clubs take a look at top prospects. The Guardians have Bo Naylor largely ready for a big league look but continue dedicating playing time to Mike Zunino. The Pirates have top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both in Triple-A, and either could unseat Austin Hedges in the Majors before terribly long. However, neither Hedges nor Zunino would give the Fish a meaningful offensive upgrade.
As far as some potentially more controllable options go, the Marlins could look to some yet-unproven backstops around the league. Ivan Herrera, once the ostensible successor to Yadier Molina in St. Louis, is now blocked by Willson Contreras but remains a top-100 prospect with everyday catching upside. The Giants recently optioned Joey Bart and will continue taking a look at Patrick Bailey as their primary catcher, perhaps setting Bart up for a potential change-of-scenery swap. Of course, learning a new staff on the fly midseason is a challenge, and that’s even more true for a young catcher who’s also trying to establish himself as a viable big leaguer — perhaps even in the midst of a playoff race.
Some Marlins fans might’ve gotten their hopes up for a potential run at Salvador Perez when his name recently popped up in a few rumors, but Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo publicly stated yesterday that he has no intention of trading Perez (who has full veto power over any possible deals anyhow, as a player with 10-and-5 rights). The Mets looked into trades of Tomas Nido before passing him through outright waivers, but he’s another veteran option who’s no guarantee to be an offensive upgrade over the current in-house tandem. The last-place Rockies could speculatively look to sell high on Elias Diaz‘s solid start, but he’s a volatile performer on a year-to-year basis and the Rox tend to avoid selling off veterans even in losing seasons.
Miami figures to be just one of several teams poking around a limited catching market. Hopeful contenders in Cleveland, Houston and San Diego have also gotten negligible output from their catchers, and injury troubles elsewhere in the league could create other motivated buyers between now and Aug. 1. There aren’t likely to be too many plausible upgrade options on the market, leaving the Fish and other interested teams to get creative as they aim to address the need.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Diamondbacks Release Yairo Munoz
The Diamondbacks have released veteran infielder/outfielder Yairo Munoz, who’d been playing for their Triple-A affiliate after signing a minor league deal, per the league transaction log at MiLB.com. Munoz will once again become a free agent.
The 28-year-old Munoz opened the 2023 season on the injured list but was reinstated in mid-May and hit well, batting .304/.389/.391 with four doubles, six walks (11.2%) and 11 strikeouts (20.4%) in 52 trips to the plate. He played primarily the infield corners in Reno, but Munoz has experience at all four infield positions and in all three outfield slots as well.
Munoz has seen action in parts of five big league seasons, accruing three-plus years of MLB service and batting .268/.319/.396 through 626 plate appearances along the way. He spent the 2022 season with the Phillies and smacked three homers in 60 major league plate appearances, albeit with an overall line of just .211/.250/.404.
In parts of six seasons at the Triple-A level, the righty-swinging Munoz is a .301/.335/.432 hitter with a meager 4.4% walk rate but also a lower-than-average 16.3% strikeout rate. He’s a free-swinging, contact-oriented hitter who can line up just about anywhere on the diamond, though defensive metrics aren’t especially fond of his glovework at any one position.
The D-backs currently have Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Josh Rojas starting around the diamond, with veterans Evan Longoria and Nick Ahmed on the bench alongside 27-year-old infielder Emmanuel Rivera. Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Pavin Smith have all been logging outfield reps.
That’s a crowded big league infield/outfield scene as it is, but the Snakes have several more players in Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster who were likely ahead of Munoz on the depth chart. In the infield, that includes Diego Castillo and Blaze Alexander, while Reno outfielders Alek Thomas, Kyle Lewis and Dominic Fletcher are all on the 40-man roster as well. Munoz will head back to the market in search of another opportunity with a clearer avenue to big league playing time.
Marlins’ Dax Fulton To Undergo Elbow Surgery
Marlins pitching prospect Dax Fulton is expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 season due to elbow surgery, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report. The 21-year-old Fulton will undergo a repair but not full reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery) of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Internal brace and primary repair procedures that are less invasive than a full replacement/reconstruction of the UCL have gained popularity in recent years, though such operations still require lengthy recovery periods.
Fulton becomes the latest in a deep crop of Marlins pitching prospects to incur a major injury setback, although given the sheer volume of quality pitching in Miami’s system and the general attrition rate of pitching prospects, injuries throughout the group were inevitable. Sixto Sanchez has had multiple shoulder surgeries, while Max Meyer and Jake Eder both underwent Tommy John surgery last year.
Fulton isn’t necessarily as touted as that trio, though Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him among the game’s top 100 prospects heading into the season. The former No. 40 overall draft pick pitched to a combined 3.80 ERA in 118 1/3 frames between High-A and Double-A in 2022 and opened the 2023 season back at Double-A. With a strong showing in Pensacola, a promotion to Triple-A was likely — and an eventual 2023 look in the big leagues likely wasn’t entirely off the table.
Fulton already had Tommy John surgery in high school. A second surgery to address the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow before he’s even turned 22 years old is an ominous development, but the Marlins are currently hopeful that he’ll be ready for spring training 2024, per the Herald report.
The Marlins placed Fulton on the minor league injured list last month. Prior to landing on the shelf, he’d made six starts and a relief appearance in Double-A Pensacola, pitching to a 5.18 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate against a rough 12.8% walk rate. Scouting reports on Fulton tout his plus breaking ball, and Law credits him with a plus changeup as well. Fulton isn’t a flamethrower by today’s standards, topping out at 96-97 mph with his heater and averaging a few ticks shy of that max output.
If Fulton is indeed back to full strength next spring, he could still reach Triple-A next year and be on the doorstep of the big leagues, though with just 33 innings pitched this year, his workload will figure to be monitored. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster and won’t be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until the 2024-25 offseason, so the Marlins don’t yet need to worry about exhausting his minor league options. The focus for now will be on getting the promising lefty back to full strength and ready for the ’24 campaign.
Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 4: Twins Get Baseball’s Hardest-Throwing Reliever
With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6 and No. 5. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 4…
The 2018 season marked the end of an era in Minnesota. Former No. 1 overall pick, six-time All-Star, three-time batting champion and American League MVP Joe Mauer was playing out the final season of his contract and of his career. That $184MM deal didn’t go at all as hoped, as a series of concussions forced Mauer from behind the plate to first base and surely contributed to a decline at the plate as well. The Twins hoped to bolster the roster with a series of what looked to be solid veteran pickups in the 2017-18 offseason, adding veterans Addison Reed, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney via free agency and trade.
Any hopes of contending were dashed with a catastrophic start to the season, however. Minnesota started out with a solid 8-5 showing to begin the year but dropped 11 of the next 12 games, falling all the way to 9-16 on just May 1. By the time July rolled around, Minnesota was 10 games under .500 and nine games out of first place in the division.
Unsurprisingly, as the deadline approached, the Twins took the general position of sellers. Veterans Lynn, Brian Dozier and Ryan Pressly were traded away. Both Lynn and Dozier were rental players, but the returns on those deals proved negligible before long, and they were never under consideration for this series. There was one more veteran on an expiring contract that the Twins traded away, however: utilityman Eduardo Escobar.
The affable switch-hitter, then 29 years old, was in the midst of a career-best season at the plate. The D-backs, needing an upgrade in the infield and eyeing Escobar’s .274/.338/.514 batting line and 15 homers, put together a package of three players that won the bidding for Escobar: 19-year-old outfielder Gabriel Maciel, 22-year-old outfielder Ernie De La Trinidad … and a 20-year-old righty named Jhoan Duran. Given the ages of the players acquired, the Twins knew this was a long-term play at best. Only De La Trinidad, the “third” piece in the deal, was anywhere close to contributing in the Majors, and even he was just in A-ball at the time of the trade.
The D-backs got what they were hoping for out of Escobar — and then some. He slashed a solid .268/.327/.444 in Arizona following the trade but also enjoyed his time there to the point that he opted to forgo a trip to the open market in favor of a three-year, $21MM extension just days before he was slated to officially become a free agent.
Escobar was again quite good with the Diamondbacks in 2019, popping a career-high 35 home runs, 29 doubles and an MLB-best 10 triples in what’s now commonly referenced as the juiced-ball season. He struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign but rebounded nicely in 2021 — earning the lone All-Star appearance of his career to date. The D-backs were out of contention themselves in ’21 and traded Escobar to the Brewers for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel and infielder/outfielder Alberto Ciprian. Hummel has since been flipped to the Mariners in exchange for oft-injured former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.
Looking at the Twins’ side of the deal — just as with No. 7 entry Alex Lange and the Tigers, it’s taken a few years for the results to manifest. However, the Twins have to be thrilled with Duran’s emergence as a premium reliever. The flamethrowing righty is a human highlight reel thanks to a heater that can run up to 104 mph and a splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”) that averages 99.1 mph and regularly crosses the plate at triple-digit velocities. Unlike many of his flamethrowing counterparts, Duran has also shown strong command. This year’s walk rate is higher than his stellar rookie campaign, but overall Duran has walked a better-than-average 7.7% of his big league opponents.
Since making his debut with the Twins early last season, Duran owns a superlative 1.75 ERA with a 33.8% strikeout rate, that 7.7% walk rate and a massive 62.6% ground-ball rate. He’s baseball’s hardest-throwing reliever and ranks at or near the top of leaderboards in opponents’ chase rate, swinging-strike rate and “expected” batting average and wOBA (per Statcast). He’s tallied 18 holds and moved into the primary closer role for Minnesota, adding 16 saves since being given the lion’s share of opportunities.
Rather quickly, Duran has thrust himself into the conversation for baseball’s best reliever. He ranks sixth among all qualified MLB relievers in ERA dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season. His strikeout rate sits ninth in that same group, and his K-BB% is 13th. Only Clay Holmes and Andre Pallante have induced ground-balls at a higher rate. Only Edwin Diaz, Andres Munoz and the previously mentioned Lange induce swinging strikes at a higher rate than Duran’s 18.2%, and only six relievers have induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a higher clip than Duran’s 40.3%.
Duran is the only one of the three prospects acquired for Escobar who’s panned out, but he’s panned out in a massive way and is under club control all the way through the 2027 season. Neither Maciel nor De La Trinidad is in the Twins organization anymore — and neither even climbed as high as the Triple-A level in Minnesota’s system. Had either amounted to even a fourth outfielder at the big league level, the Escobar trade could well rank even higher in this series.
Instead, it can largely be viewed as a win for both clubs, even if the Snakes would surely love to have Duran in their bullpen at present. The D-backs got a productive couple months from Escobar, extended him for three more years at a reasonable rate, got some good production from him and eventually traded him for more minor league talent. The Twins keyed in on a series of high-upside but high-risk prospects rather than lower-upside players who might’ve been closer to the big leagues. We regularly see teams acquire low-level position players with loud tools or low-level pitchers with huge arms in rental trades. The success rate on players who are that far from the Majors is understandably quite a bit lower — but the Twins’ acquisition of Duran is the exact type of jackpot all teams are trying to hit in these scenarios.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.