Latest On Brad Hand
3:30pm: Hand is indeed discussing multi-year deals with teams, Jesse Rogers of ESPN tweets.
11:53am: The Mets’ interest in lefty Brad Hand was already known, but SNY’s Andy Martino provides some additional context on the club’s pursuit, reporting that New York has been seeking a one-year pact that would pay Hand a bit less than the $10MM price point at which all 30 clubs passed on claiming him earlier this offseason. Hand, however, is seeking at least a two-year arrangement.
Two years for Hand has seemed plausible throughout the winter, and recent multi-year pacts for Blake Treinen ($17.5MM total) and Liam Hendriks ($54MM total) only further lend credence to the idea that he’d be justified seeking two or more years despite going unclaimed at season’s end. Notably, Martino suggests in a follow-up tweet that had the Mets’ sale to Steve Cohen gone through just days earlier, the team almost certainly would’ve claimed Hand. The Mets’ sale was finalized on Nov. 6; Hand cleared waivers on Oct. 30.
At the time Hand cleared waivers, there was surely some hesitancy from owners to commit to any notable salary additions given the uncertainty of what the upcoming 2021 season would look like. There’s still no way of definitively knowing, of course, but commissioner Rob Manfred recently instructed clubs to prepare for a full 162-game slate and for Spring Training to start on time. We don’t yet know what fan attendance will look like, however, which has hampered spending and slowed the free-agent market.
That said, there’s been plenty of interest in Hand — clearly just not at the multi-year level he prefers. In addition to the Mets, he’s been linked to the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Astros and White Sox. Reports tying Hand to L.A. and Chicago predated that pair’s respective signings of Treinen and Hendriks, so it’s possible that the extent of their interest has changed.
Based on track record, Hand stands out as the clear top lefty reliever on the market. He’s pitched to a combined 2.70 ERA and 2.79 SIERA over the past five seasons while striking out exactly one-third of the hitters he’s faced against just an 8.1 percent walk rate.
However, Hand did show some red flags in 2020, as his once 94.1 mph average fastball velocity dipped to 91.8 mph — his second straight year of a notable decline. He also benefited from a career-low .255 average on balls in play, and Hand certainly can’t be expected to go an entire season — or even 22 straight innings — without allowing a single home run again as he did in 2020. Today’s teams are far more concerned with what they project a player will do over the life of his contract than what the player has done leading up to said contract, which may help explain the disconnect between Hand’s track record his market to this point.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/12/21
Here are Tuesday’s minor moves from around the game…
- The Giants agreed to a minor league deal and Spring Training invite with utilityman Arismendy Alcantara, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Once considered to be among baseball’s top 100 prospects, the former Cubs prospect hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017. The 29-year-old Alcantara has appeared in 167 MLB games, splitting time between the Cubs, A’s and Reds, but he has just a .189/.285/.315 batting line to show for it. Alcantara has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield spots, and he’s a career .273/.326/.468 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons.
Trevor Bauer Had Meeting With Blue Jays
In the latest chapter of Trevor Bauer‘s unconventional trip through free agency, the right-hander revealed in a video that he had a call set to talk with the Blue Jays — specifically mentioning that he planned to talk with their pitching coach (Pete Walker) and high performance coach (presumably VP of high performance Angus Mugford).
While many fans have had some fun with the fact that the Blue Jays have been linked to virtually every free agent on the market this winter, Bauer’s meeting with them is still plenty notable. Few clubs are expected to be major spenders this winter, but Toronto is among the likeliest teams to sign a major free agent. The Blue Jays’ current $84MM projected payroll (via FanGraphs/Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) is about half the franchise-record $163MM, set back in 2017.
Beyond that flexibility, the Toronto front office — headed up by president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins — is quite familiar with Bauer. Both Atkins and Shapiro were in the Indians organization when Cleveland originally acquired Bauer from the Diamondbacks; Shapiro was the team’s president at that point and Atkins the director of player development.
Among top-tier free agents, the Blue Jays have been most prominently linked to outfielder George Springer in recent weeks. The Jays reported to be one of two finalists to sign Springer. The Mets, the other apparent Springer finalist, have been tied to Bauer in their own right, although Springer is said to be New York’s priority at this time.
Toronto’s current rotation features Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling and highly touted 24-year-old Nate Pearson. Penciling Bauer into that mix alongside Ryu would give them a formidable one-two punch atop the rotation with plenty of upside behind them. Ryu is coming off consecutive Top 3 finishes in Cy Young voting, while Bauer of course won the National League Cy Young Award in 2020.
Latest On Phillies, J.T. Realmuto
Jan. 1: NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury takes a fresh look at Realmuto’s market, running through several speculative matches for him in free agency. While the Phils have yet to make an offer, Salisbury writes that given Realmuto’s “fondness” for Philadelphia, it’s likely he’d circle back and give them a chance to match or top any offers received elsewhere.
Dec. 29: The market for J.T. Realmuto has moved at a glacial pace. The lone major development came in the form of a four-year deal between Realmuto’s top alternative, James McCann, and one of his top suitors, the Mets. Beyond the Mets, Realmuto has been linked to the Blue Jays, Nationals and Angels — to varying extents.
The incumbent Phillies, of course, remain a fit. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted last night that Realmuto remains “the priority” for the Phils under new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld. However, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s John Clark reports this morning that while the Phillies have had plenty of conversations with Realmuto’s camp, a formal offer has never been put forth. That differs from reporting by Heyman and others who’ve suggested that the Phillies have a standing offer on the table.
It’s certainly possible there are some semantics at play. The Phils can make their comfort level known and indicate their breaking point without presenting an actual offer. Similarly, Realmuto’s agents at CAA can set general expectations without giving a firm number they need the Phillies (or another club) to meet. That said, it still registers as something of a surprise that, after nearly a year of conversations dating back to Spring Training, the Phils have apparently yet to give Realmuto the opportunity to put pen to paper.
While the trade market for star-caliber pitchers has been ramping up and we’re simultaneously seeing high-profile international players reach the end of their posting windows, the market for top-level MLB free agents seems no closer to a crescendo than it was this time last month. Some form of resolution in the Yankees’ pursuit of DJ LeMahieu or the Mets’ pursuit of George Springer could have a cascade effect that lends clarity to Realmuto’s market, but there’s no indication that such a sequence will happen anytime soon.
Yankees, Socrates Brito Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Socrates Brito, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The MAS+ client will be invited to Major League Spring Training.
Brito, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Pirates last year and opened the shortened season in Pittsburgh’s 60-man player pool at their alternate training site in Altoona. However, Brito opted out of the remainder of the year in September following the tragic loss of his brother to Covid-19.
He’ll now join a Yankees club that has seen plenty of outfield injuries over the past couple of seasons, which could afford him another opportunity in the big leagues. Brito has spent parts of four seasons in the Majors between Arizona and Toronto, but he’s yet to replicate the solid production he posted in his first cup of coffee when he batted .303/.324/.455 in 18 games with the 2015 D-backs. Brito carries just a .525 OPS in 218 Major League plate appearances, but he’s notched a much more impressive .297/.345/.491 batting line in 1541 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
NC Dinos Re-Sign Aaron Altherr, Drew Rucinski
The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization kicked off the New Year by announcing that they’ve re-signed outfielder Aaron Altherr and right-hander Drew Rucinski to new one-year contracts for the 2021 season. Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net tweets that Altherr’s deal comes with a $1.3MM guarantee and another $100K available via incentives, while Rucinski will be paid $1.6MM with up to $200K of incentives. Altherr is represented by All Bases Covered. Rucinski is represented by Paragon Sports.
Altherr, 30 next month, had some success with the Phillies in 2015 and 2017 but never fully established himself as a big league regular. By 2019, he was designated for assignment multiple times and split the season between three clubs, going just 5-for-61 at the MLB level.
It was a different story in South Korea for Altherr. He mashed opposing pitching at a .278/.352/.541 clip and belted 31 home runs, 20 doubles and seven triples to go along with 22 steals in 25 tries. Altherr was 27 percent better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, so it’s not a surprise that the KBO-champion Dinos sought to bring him back for a return effort.
Rucinski, who turned 32 just two days ago, will return for a third season with the Dinos. The former Indians and Angels farmhand made it to the Majors as an undrafted free agent, logging a combined 54 innings between the Halos, Twins and Marlins from 2014-18 — albeit without much success. He’s found a home with the Dinos, however, pitching to an identical 3.05 ERA in each of his first two seasons there. Rucinski racked up 183 innings in 2020, averaging 8.2 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine frames along the way.
The Complexity Of Trading Kevin Kiermaier
The Rays entered the offseason with just two players making more than $10MM per year, and in case you’ve been hiding in a cave far, far from the Internet, they already traded one of them this week. With Blake Snell now in San Diego, rumors immediately shifted to the team’s other most expensive player: center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that Kiermaier is “next on the trade block” for the Rays, although while the Rays may still hope to shed additional payroll, that’s too simplistic a characterization of what should be a more layered discussion.
First up in any discussion of the 30-year-old Kiermaier will always be his defensive wizardry. His penchant for highlight-reel dives and wall-scaling home run robberies is well known. Frequent diving catches don’t make someone a defensive master, necessarily; some players will need to dive on plays that shouldn’t be that difficult in order to compensate for a poorly run route or a bad read off the bat. That’s rarely the case with Kiermaier, though, who has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in each of the past four seasons by measure of Statcast’s “Outfield Jump” metric. Kiermaier has been in the 91st percentile or better in Statcast’s average sprint speed in each of those four years as well.
Dating back to 2017, Kiermaier ranks fourth among big league players, at any position, with 58 Defensive Runs Saved. Mookie Betts is the only outfielder who tops him. Matt Chapman and Andrelton Simmons, both infielders by trade, are the other two. That trio, on average, has played 815 more innings in the field during that stretch than Kiermaier, however. As such, there’s a very real argument that on a per-inning/per-game basis, Kiermaier is the most impactful defensive player in baseball. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric dates back to 2017, and as with DRS, Kiermaier is elite. He ranks fifth among 487 outfielders in that time despite more limited chances in the field.
Of course, those limited chances are part of the knock on Kiermaier. He’s played in just 364 games and taken 1427 plate appearances over the past four seasons combined. While his reckless abandon in the outfield surely dings him up from time to time and requires the occasional off day — particularly given his home park’s artificial surface — that hasn’t been his major issue. Kiermaier has sustained a fractured hip (2017) and a torn ligament in his thumb (2018) while sliding on the basepaths in recent years, both of which have cost him months of action.
It’s somewhat remarkable that the hip injury didn’t have a lasting impact on Kiermaier’s superlative glovework, but it’s certainly fair to wonder to what extent injuries have impacted him at the plate. Consider that from 2014-17, Kiermaier was not only a world-class defender but also an above-average hitter, posting a composite .262/.319/.431 batting line. From 2018-20, however, he’s managed just a .222/.286/.386 slash in 1006 plate appearances.
His 2017 production actually improved upon returning from the hip fracture, so perhaps that shouldn’t be viewed as a major contributor to his offensive decline. The torn ligament in his thumb, however, which occurred in April 2018, may have had a considerably more adverse impact on his output at the plate. Hand and wrist issues that impact a player’s grip can wreak havoc on their mechanics and their production. Perhaps it’s coincidental, but since 2018, Kiermaier’s strikeout rate has jumped five percent and his ground-ball rate has steadily risen.
An optimistic trade partner might think Kiermaier could still return to his ways as an average or better hitter. He walked at a career-best 12.6 percent clip in 2020’s shortened slate of games, which certainly bodes well. Even when accounting for the fact that Kiermaier walked just once in 57 postseason plate appearances, that’s 21 walks in 216 total trips to the plate in 2020 — a 9.7 percent clip that would match his career-high and easily top the 6.5 percent mark he carried into the season.
Kiermaier has also improved his hard-hit and barreled-ball rates over the past couple seasons despite not having much production to show for it. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) — a metric that reflects what a player’s overall offensive output should be, based on frequency and quality of contact — from 2019-20 is right in line with his 2015-17 levels.
Given that, there’s plenty of reason to consider Kiermaier a strong bounceback candidate. Even if he doesn’t rebound at the plate, any team would know it’s getting an elite defender with plus speed to contribute on the bases. The problem for interested parties, of course, is that Kiermaier is paid at a higher rate than a glove-first player of that nature would typically be compensated. He’s owed $26MM over the next two seasons: $11.5MM in 2021, $12.5MM in 2022 and at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM option for the 2023 season.
It’s not an overly burdensome contract, but at a time when teams throughout the league are scaling back on payroll, it’s a notable chunk of cash. That’s all the more true when Kiermaier’s skill set is similar to that of free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. — a player who may not command as much as the two years and $26MM still owed to Kiermaier. Bradley would cost only money for a team seeking a center field boost, and while he’s not a great offensive player, he does have a steadier and more productive track record.
Also problematic is that while Tampa Bay’s trade of Snell to the Padres brought a huge prospect haul, a trade of Kiermaier might resemble more of a salary dump in terms of its return. Some interested teams may even ask the Rays to kick in a bit of cash to cover a portion of the remaining money owed to the 2015 Platinum Glover. For a player of his status in the organization, a straight salary dump would be a tougher sell both to the fans and to the clubhouse.
Given all that context, it’s perhaps not surprising to see MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweet that despite Kiermaier’s availability on the trade market, the chances of a deal coming together “aren’t great.” The Rays have already weakened their 2021 roster by trading away Snell and declining Charlie Morton‘s option, and jettisoning Kiermaier for nothing of immediate value (on the heels of a World Series run) would only further diminish their hope of a return postseason bid.
Granted, some of the dollars that had been earmarked for Kiermaier could be invested back into the free-agent pool, but it’s extremely difficult to find a player with Kiermaier’s upside on the open market with the limited resources they’d save in dealing him away. Kiermaier has still topped seven WAR over the past three seasons combined, even with his bat on the decline, and in that aforementioned 2014-17 peak, he checked in at 21 wins above replacement.
Not only is Kiermaier’s ceiling higher than any replacement the Rays would bring into the fold, but the possibility of trading him for pennies on the dollar, only to watch him rebound and send his value soaring, looms larger in this instance. It’s a very different situation than moving Snell when his value was much closer to (or arguably even at) its apex.
I’d expect plenty of rumors regarding the possibility of a Kiermaier trade between now and Opening Day, but for all these reasons (and likely quite a few more), it’s a complicated scenario that should by no means be considered a given. For debate’s sake, let’s tack a poll onto the end of this breakdown and open it for discussion in the comments (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):
Will the Rays trade Kevin Kiermaier before Opening Day?
-
No 51% (5,871)
-
Yes 49% (5,536)
Total votes: 11,407
Padres Sign Ha-Seong Kim
DEC. 31, 6:06pm: The Padres have announced Kim’s signing. His deal includes a mutual option for 2025. The option could increase the value to $39MM, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports. Yoo adds that the Heroes will receive $5.25MM as the posting fee.
5:21pm:Kim’s actually guaranteed $28MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. He could earn a maximum of $32MM based on incentives for plate appearances.
DEC. 28: The Padres have reached an agreement to sign free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). Kim, a client of ISE Baseball, will receive a four-year, $25MM contract according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kim, 25, became available to MLB clubs earlier this month when his KBO team, the Kiwoom Heroes, posted him for bidding.
Kim debuted as a teenager in the KBO, allowing him to push for his team to post him at a much earlier age than most stars in South Korea and Japan. Because of his youth and excellent track record, Kim was among the more desirable free agents on the market this winter, landing seventh on MLBTR’s Top 50 list back in November.
Throughout his career to date, Kim has been an above-average player in Korea, but his game soared to new heights in 2019 even as the KBO altered the composition of its ball in order to cut back on the league’s hitter-friendly environment. Since 2019, Kim has batted .307/.393/.500 with 49 home runs, 62 doubles, three triples and a 56-for-62 showing in stolen base attempts. He’s been 42 percent better than a league-average hitter there over the past two seasons, by measure of wRC+. Back in May, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser wrote that signing Kim would be akin to inking a Top 100 prospect. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen have expressed similar sentiments, calling Kim a potential regular at second base, shortstop or third base in MLB.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that San Diego’s plan is to play Kim at second base and move 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth to left field. Of course, at this point it’s not wise to make any assumptions about just how the Padres’ roster will take shape. General manager A.J. Preller agreed to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays just last night and is simultaneously “deep” into talks to acquire Yu Darvish and perhaps some catching help — either Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini — from the Cubs. Until we know the players headed back to Chicago in that potential swap, it’s hard to gauge exactly how things will look.
At this point, however, it should be expected that Kim will be utilized on a near-everyday basis — be it as the primary second baseman or as an oft-used super-utility player. Kim is an above-average defender at shortstop, per Longenhagen, who cites “expansive” lateral range and a plus-plus throwing arm as the primary factors working in his favor. Generally speaking, most players capable of playing a strong shortstop are well-equipped to provide good defense at either second or third base, so Kim has the potential to impact the Friars on both sides of the ball.
There figures to be an adjustment period at the plate, given the gap between KBO pitching and MLB pitching, but Kim struck out at just a 10.9 percent clip in 2020. Even with inevitable regression as he gets used to better velocity, those bat-to-ball skills should give him a chance to hold his own right out of the gate.
Whether it’s Darvish or someone else, other moves figure to follow now that agreements to bring Kim and Snell to San Diego are in place. Preller has shown in the past that his additions come in rapid succession, and his activity over the past 24 hours seems to suggest that we’re in the midst of another deluge of Padres moves.
Padres In Talks With Kirby Yates, Still Interested In Jurickson Profar
Having radically overhauled their rotation and infield mix this week with the acquisitions of Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Ha-Seong Kim, the Padres are now shifting their focus to the bullpen and to outfield depth, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Their current pursuits include a pair of potential reunions: closer Kirby Yates and infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar.
Yates, according to Acee, is “likely looking at” an incentive-laden deal with a guarantee upwards of $5MM. Profar’s target price isn’t fully clear, though Acee suggests the Padres’ interest has been in a deal around the $5MM range as well. There’s no indication that either Yates of Profar is close to a deal that would bring them back to San Diego, but the interest and potential price ranges are nevertheless of note.
The continued interest in Profar, in particular, was far from a given after this week’s dealings. San Diego’s four-year deal with Kim added another option to an already crowded infield mix — so much so that there have been varying reports on the possibility of toying with either Kim or 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth in left field. Profar would only further add another second base/left field option to the pile.
Presently, the Padres’ starting outfield is likely to consist of Wil Myers, Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham. The team does lack an experienced reserve option, though. Neither Kim nor Cronenworth has any outfield experience of note. Other options include Greg Allen, former top prospect Jorge Mateo and young Jorge Ona. San Diego also has 28-year-old Brian O’Grady on the 40-man roster at the moment, but his MLB experience is limited to 53 plate appearances. Both Allen and Mateo are out of minor league options, which would work in their favor if they made it to the end of Spring Training still on the 40-man roster, but neither impressed in 2020.
Turning to the bullpen, the Padres have a rather deep slate of options even if a reunion with Yates or a new contract with a similar veteran can’t be worked out. Both Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan have considerable late-inning experience. Matt Strahm has emerged as a quality ‘pen option in recent years, and righty Pierce Johnson was excellent in his return from Japan this past season. San Diego also picked up Dan Altavilla and strikeout machine Austin Adams from the Mariners in the Austin Nola/Taylor Trammell swap, and veteran Craig Stammen is still under contract for another season. None of that even gets into the bevy of young arms in the upper levels of the Padres’ system.
Still, the appeal of Yates is obvious. Though bone spurs in his elbow limited the 34-year-old to just 4 1/3 innings in 2020, Yates starred as one of baseball’s premier relievers with the Padres from 2018-19, pitching to a combined 1.67 ERA with 13.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and racking up 53 saves along the way. Few relievers on the market can match his upside, making him a particularly appealing gamble for a club with plenty of alternate depth.
This week’s flurry of activity will likely push the Padres’ 2021 payroll north of $160MM, which would position them as the rare MLB team to actually match last year’s payroll totals. Further additions, even smaller-scale pickups such as Yates or Profar, would almost certainly push San Diego’s payroll even higher than last year’s franchise-record mark.