Mets Designate Stephen Nogosek For Assignment
The Mets announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Stephen Nogosek for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to right-hander Rick Porcello, whose previously reported one-year, $10MM contract is now official.
Nogosek, 24, was the last of three remaining pitchers in the organization that the Mets had acquired when trading Addison Reed to the Red Sox back in 2017. Fellow righties Gerson Bautista (traded to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal) and Jamie Callahan (outrighted and signed with the Giants) have both gone to other clubs within the past 13 months.
Nogosek made his MLB debut with the Mets this past season but was roughed up for eight runs on a dozen hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. The 2016 sixth-round pick posted an eye-popping 1.07 ERA in 50 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, although his control (4.9 BB/9, 12.8 BB%) wasn’t great and he benefited from a .155 BABIP in 31 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball.
On the one hand, Nogosek is a fairly young reliever with minor league options remaining, a heater that averaged 95.1 mph in his brief MLB cup of coffee an a longstanding knack for avoiding home runs (0.81 HR/9 in 199 minor league innings). On the other hand, he’s a pronounced fly-ball pitcher with a persistent control issues who’ll need to continue avoiding the long ball against the game’s best hitters due to that limited ability to locate the ball. He’ll turn 25 in July and is more or less MLB-ready, so a club could take a look at him via a minor trade or a waiver pickup. The Mets will have a week to trade Nogosek or place him on outright waivers in hopes that he’ll clear and remain in the organization.
Jay Bruce Hires Excel Sports Management
Phillies outfielder Jay Bruce has changed representation and is now a client of Excel Sports Management, tweets Robert Murray. He’d previously been repped by Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon but sought new representation after his agent, Matt Sosnick, left the company following an arrest on charges of domestic violence. The agency has since rebranded as Apex Baseball.
Apex still retains a number of notable high-end clients (Pete Alonso, Blake Snell, Max Kepler, Blake Treinen, Mitch Haniger and Brendan McKay among them). Right-hander Chad Bettis also departed prior to the rebrand, hiring CAA Baseball to represent him moving forward.
The 32-year-old Bruce had a bizarre 2019 season, ranking ninth in the Majors (min. 300 plate appearances) with a career-high .306 isolated power mark (slugging minus batting average). But despite being one of baseball’s most powerful hitters in 2019, Bruce’s .261 OBP ranked 270th of 273 hitters with that same 300-PA minimum.
One might think that Bruce suddenly became extremely prone to strikeouts or infield flies to drive down his average and OBP, but that wasn’t the case. His 24.6 percent strikeout rate wasn’t outlandish by today’s standards, nor were the eight infield flies he registered. He batted just .121 on grounders, though, suggesting that he was particularly prone to outs via the shift. Even still, his .200 average on balls in play seems ripe for positive regression in 2020.
Bruce is signed through the 2020 season under the three-year, $39MM contract he inked with the Mets prior to the 2018 campaign and will be a free agent for the second time in his career next offseason. He’ll join Didi Gregorius, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson and Jake Odorizzi among notable Excel free agents next winter.
The change in representation for Bruce has been updated in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agency info on more than 2,500 players in both the big leagues and the minors. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Brewers, Avisail Garcia In “Advanced” Talks
The Brewers are in “advanced” talks with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted on Saturday that Milwaukee was “trying hard” to complete a contract with the 28-year-old.
Garcia spent the 2019 season with the Rays, hitting .282/.332/.464 with 20 home runs, 25 doubles and a pair of triples in 530 trips to the plate. It was the second above-average offensive season from Garcia in the past three years, as he also turned in a career-best .330/.380/.506 line with the White Sox in 2017 (albeit with the help of a sky-high .392 average on balls in play). Garcia’s hard-hit rate and exit velocity both deteriorated in 2019 but were still better than league average. And while most wouldn’t expect it based on his 6’4″, 250-pound frame and middling stolen base totals, Garcia rates among the game’s best in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.
Milwaukee’s outfield is already rather full, with Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich lined up from left to right field. But Braun has seen time at first base in recent seasons, and a more permanent move in that regard would open some at-bats for Garcia in the outfield, perhaps setting up a platoon with the left-handed-hitting Ben Gamel. The right-handed-hitting Garcia was a bit better against righties than lefties in 2019, but his career platoon splits suggest that he’s been much better against southpaws (.296/.352/.456) than against righties (.264/.312/.418).
Braun, Cain, Keston Hiura and Luis Urias give the Brewers four right-handed bats on whom to rely in 2020, and backup catcher Manny Pina has also been serviceable against lefties in his career. The Brewers, though, look like a club that could struggle to match up against left-handed starters — particularly if Cain doesn’t bounce back from a lackluster 2019 season at the plate. At the very least, Garcia would give manager Craig Counsell some extra thump against lefties, but he’s still a relatively young option who has more than held his own against right-handed pitchers over the past three seasons as well, creating the possibility that he could occupy a more regular role.
From a payroll vantage point, the Brewers have trimmed off quite a bit of money with an aggressive slate of non-tenders, the trade of Chase Anderson and the departure of free agents Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. After opening the 2019 season with a club-record $122.5MM payroll, they currently have about $67MM committed to 10 players (plus pending arbitration raises for Omar Narvaez, Josh Hader and Brent Suter as well as pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster). Even if owner Mark Attanasio prefers not return to last season’s level of spending, there should still be room for Garcia and others to be added to the mix for the 2020 season.
Chris Heston Eyeing Comeback Following 2019 Shoulder Surgery
Former Giants right-hander Chris Heston announced that he has his sights set on a big league comeback after undergoing a significant procedure on his right shoulder this past June (link to Twitter thread). Heston had surgery to repair his labrum and biceps tendon while also “cleaning up” his rotator cuff. His right shoulder had been bothering him for the past “couple years,” he adds.
Heston, 31, was limited to 19 1/3 minor league innings in 2018 and pitched 72 2/3 innings between the Majors and minors back in 2017. He hasn’t topped 100 innings in a season since racking up 177 2/3 frames out of the Giants’ rotation back in 2015 — a season that saw him throw an 11-strikeout no-hitter against the Mets in what was just his 13th Major League start. Overall, the righty pitched to a 3.95 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a strong 53 percent ground-ball rate. Despite the presence of veterans like Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Matt Cain on the San Francisco staff that year, Heston finished second in starts (31) and innings to Madison Bumgarner.
It’s been a rocky go of things for Heston since that time, as he somewhat surprisingly fell off the Giants’ radar almost entirely the following season. The team’s signings of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija impeded his path to the big leagues in 2016, and it seems that Heston’s shoulder began barking not long thereafter. In total, he’s only thrown 189 1/3 innings (big leagues and minors combined) since his terrific rookie campaign in 2015.
Heston is planning to throw for clubs in late February in hopes of securing a minor league contract. The righty notes that he’s picked up his real estate license during the early stages of an arduous rehab process but makes clear that his goal is to continue his pitching career now that his shoulder has been repaired.
Red Sox Sign Jose Peraza
DECEMBER 13: The Sox have announced the signing.
DECEMBER 12: The Red Sox are in agreement with free-agent infielder Jose Peraza on a contract for the 2020 season, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will take home a one-year deal worth close to $3MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He can boost his salary via incentives.
Peraza, still just 25, was once considered to be among the game’s premier prospects but struggled considerably in two of his three full Major League seasons before being non-tendered by the Reds earlier this month. That includes a 2019 season in which he managed only a bleak .239/.285/.346 batting line through 376 trips to the plate while seeing time at second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field.
While the 2019 and 2017 seasons weren’t kind to Peraza, he posted solid seasons with the bat in a half-season effort in 2016 (.324/.352/.411) and a full season in 2018 (.288/.326/.416). He’s an above-average runner although perhaps not to the extent some may expect from his prospect days; Peraza posted a 28.8 ft/sec average sprint speed each year from 2016-18, per Statcast, but saw that mark drop to 28.0 this past season. And while that might not sound like a notable drop, it’s enough to drop him from the 92nd percentile to the 75th percentile in the game. Peraza’s stolen-base efficiency, perhaps correspondingly, took a hit. He was caught six times in 13 attempts last year after going 70-for-94 in seasons prior.
In Peraza, the Red Sox now have a potential replacement for free agent Swiss army knife Brock Holt, who remains unsigned to this point in the offseason. Peraza can play virtually any position on the diamond outside of pitcher or catcher, and at roughly $3MM and 25 years of age, he’s both a younger and more affordable alternative — if he can round back into form, that is.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s a fairly sensible low-cost flier for Boston — one that could pay dividends across multiple years. Peraza has three years, 141 days of Major League service time, meaning if he does indeed bounce back, he’ll be controllable via arbitration all the way through the 2022 season
D-backs Rumors: Ray, Ozuna, Outfield, Bullpen
Executives who’ve spoken to the Diamondbacks about left-hander Robbie Ray believe that Arizona will ultimately trade him this winter, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). That move wouldn’t be the precursor to any larger-scale sell off but would rather be a means of capitalizing on a valuable asset in his final year before reaching the free-agent market. Ray, who’ll pitch all of the 2020 season at 28, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.8MM in arbitration on the heels of a 2019 season that included a 4.34 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37 percent ground-ball rate through 174 1/3 innings. Walks and home runs have long been an issue for Ray, but only four starters in baseball — Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander — have a higher overall strikeout rate than Ray’s 31.9 percent dating back to 2017.
More out of Arizona…
- While the D-backs have spoken with the agents for Marcell Ozuna, they’re not in active pursuit of the free-agent outfielder at this point, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. Arizona could circle back to Ozuna later in the offseason if he lingers on the market, Sanchez adds. Speculatively speaking, that seems like an indicator that the D-backs aren’t comfortable with Ozuna’s current price point but could be amenable to a shorter-term arrangement if he’s unable to find the lucrative multi-year deal he’s seeking. Ozuna rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, and he’d hardly be the first player to see his market stagnate due to the burden of draft compensation. There’s little indication that he’s in danger of that sort of limbo, but the D-backs are the second potential suitor in as many weeks who’ve had some cold water thrown on previously reported interest. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman last week (Twitter link) that Ozuna hasn’t come up in his talks with GM Rick Hahn, and the Sox have since acquired Nomar Mazara.
- Arizona skipper Torey Lovullo appeared on MLB Tonight this week and discussed a variety of issues, including breakouts from Ketel Marte and Christian Walker as well as the remainder of the team’s offseason (video link). While Lovullo isn’t the one calling the shots on any roster additions, he indicated that addressing the outfield is the primary focus for the club. “I think we’re trying to prioritize the outfield right now,” Lovullo said after praising the team’s pitching depth. “I think it’s fairly obvious we don’t have a lot of [outfield] depth in our organization.” Arizona non-tendered Steven Souza Jr. after a pair of injury-ruined seasons and has yet to commit to whether Marte will be a second baseman or center fielder in 2020. Marte’s versatility, as Lovullo notes, gives GM Mike Hazen and his staff plenty of flexibility when looking at how to best tackle the team’s remaining needs.
- As far as the bullpen is concerned, Lovullo said in a separate interview that while he prefers to have a designated closer/ninth-inning option in place, the Diamondbacks could “ask somebody to get four outs from time to time” next season. Archie Bradley‘s ability to pitch more than an inning at a time and the 18 saves he tallied in 2019 are a “nice starting point” when trying to determine who’ll close for Arizona in 2020, per Lovullo. But the D-backs are also still in the market for another bullpen arm, so it’s possible that some competition will be brought in to join the mix of candidates. At the moment, the D-backs aren’t making any firm proclamations as to who’ll be shutting down games for them next year.
Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract
With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.
To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.
It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.
Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.
Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.
Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…
Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Where will Josh Donaldson sign?
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Braves 45% (14,548)
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Nationals 24% (7,695)
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Dodgers 10% (3,316)
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Twins 10% (3,199)
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Rangers 7% (2,218)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,341)
Total votes: 32,317
How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How many guaranteed years will Josh Donaldson get?
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Three years 48% (11,411)
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Four years 43% (10,056)
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Two years 8% (1,795)
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One year 1% (304)
Total votes: 23,566
What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How much money will Josh Donaldson be guaranteed?
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$75-90MM 38% (8,399)
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$90-100MM 23% (5,039)
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$65-75MM 23% (5,023)
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Under $65MM 9% (2,046)
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More than $100MM 8% (1,724)
Total votes: 22,231
Athletics Acquire Buddy Reed To Complete Jurickson Profar Trade
The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve traded minor league outfielder Buddy Reed to the Athletics as the player to be named later in this month’s Jurickson Profar deal. Oakland traded Profar to San Diego in exchange for catcher Austin Allen and a PTBNL back on Dec. 2.
Now 24 years old, Reed starred at Florida in college and was selected by the Padres with the 48th overall pick in the 2016 draft. Scouting reports at FanGraphs and MLB.com tout him as a plus-plus runner with the potential to be a plus defender in center field, but he’s struggled with the bat at every level in the minors to this point outside of a strong half season in Class-A Advanced last year (which preceded additional struggles in Double-A).
In 2019, Reed hit .228/.310/.388 with 14 home runs, 15 doubles, two triples and 23 stolen bases with the Padres’ Double-A affiliate in Amarillo. Reed did post a career-best 9.5 percent walk rate in the Texas League this year, but he also whiffed at a 28.6 percent clip. Even if he’s unable to make substantial gains at the plate, Reed could still draw enough walks, run well enough and play strong enough defense to eventually be a fourth outfielder in Oakland. That said, he was eligible to be selected in today’s Rule 5 Draft and went unclaimed, so it’s fairly clear that other clubs are wary of his flimsy offensive profile at the moment.
Athletics fans looking to learn more about their new outfield prospect can check out MLBTR’s Q&A with Reed shortly before he was drafted back in 2016.
Phillies To Re-Sign Phil Gosselin
The Phillies have agreed to re-sign veteran infielder Phil Gosselin to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. He’s represented by Meister Sports Management.
Gosselin, 31, appeared in 44 games with the Phillies in 2019 and spent the rest of the year with their Triple-A club, where he hit .314/.405/.497 in 353 trips to the dish. He was limited to a pinch-hitting and defensive replacement role in the big leagues and went 17-for-65 with three doubles (.262/.294/.308 on the whole).
Gosselin has played primarily second base in the Majors but has experience at all four infield spots and in the outfield corners as well. He’s a veteran of 320 games spanning parts of seven Major League seasons and has batted .263/.312/.355 in 647 big league plate appearances. He’s unlikely to play a major role with the Phillies next year but provides some versatile depth to stash in Triple-A or perhaps to bring north from Clearwater as the team’s 26th man on next year’s expanded regular-season rosters. He’ll join fellow veteran Josh Harrison in competing for a spot in an infield that recently subtracted both Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez (non-tenders) but added Didi Gregorius on a one-year free-agent deal.
Twins Sign Alex Avila
DEC. 10: The Avila deal and the re-signing of Michael Pineda are now official, the Twins announced. They now have 37 players on their 40-man roster.
DEC. 6: The Twins have agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent catcher Alex Avila, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. The Excel Sports client will take home a $4.25MM guarantee on the new deal, per the report.
Avila, 33 in January, is no stranger to the AL Central, having spent parts of eight seasons with the Tigers plus another year with the White Sox. He’ll give the Twins a left-handed-hitting complement to 2019 breakout star Mitch Garver and, ostensibly, replace Jason Castro, who seems likely to land a starting gig elsewhere in free agency.
The veteran Avila is somewhat of a divisive player, as some view his perennially low batting average and lofty strikeout totals as too detrimental to provide consistent value. Others will point to his sky-high walk rates and above-average power in suggesting that more traditional metrics undersell his value at the plate. Indeed, Avila had one of the game’s more bizarre stat lines in 2019 when he slashed .207/.353/.421 with a 17.9 percent walk rate (third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances) and a 33.2 percent strikeout rate (12th among that same subset of hitters).
Garver, 28, still stands out as the obvious starter in Minnesota after exploding with a .273/.365/.630 batting line and 31 home runs in 2019. Even if next year’s ball is corrected to be less conducive to home runs, the Twins assuredly want to plug Garver into the lineup as often as possible after a such a stout performance. He’ll see time against lefties and righties alike, but Avila will be a more than capable stand-in when Garver needs a breather and a righty is on the hill. For his career, Avila is a .241/.358/.417 hitter (15.3 BB%, 28.7 K%) when holding the platoon advantage, although his .212/.307/.311 career line against lefties is all one needs to see to steer him away from opposing southpaws. If Garver needs a day off when a left-hander is on the mound, the Twins could perhaps look to plus super-utility man Willians Astudillo and his right-handed bat into the lineup at catcher. Astudillo himself could’ve been deployed as a backup catcher in 2020, but in Avila, the Twins have found a drastically better source of on-base percentage and a better defensive option that allows Astudillo to continue on in a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none role.
Avila has long been adept at controlling the running game (career 30 percent caught-stealing rate), but he was particularly impressive in 2019 with Arizona. Although he was only a part-time catcher there as well, Avila nabbed 11 of the 21 men who attempted to run on him (52 percent), and he was 9-for-30 (30 percent) a year prior. Avila’s framing rated poorly in 2017, but the D-backs’ efforts to improve him in that regard were successful, as he was above-average in both his seasons with Arizona, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, rated him as one of the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt in 2019.
Minnesota still has substantial work to do this offseason — namely augmenting a rotation that currently looks too similar to its 2019 iteration — but adding Avila to the fold crosses a more minor need off the to-do list at a reasonable price point. The one-year term of the deal continues with the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine-led front office’s penchant for short-term investments as well, thus maintaining future payroll flexibility. If the Twins hope to truly bolster the rotation, they’ll probably need to eschew that preference, but for smaller-scale moves like this it’s sensible to minimize contractual length.