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MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest Winners Announced
Back in November, nearly 6,000 MLBTR readers attempted to predict the landing spots of 44 top free agents. Upon Jurickson Profar’s contract with the Rockies in late March, the winners were determined.
Coming in first place with 13 of 44 correct picks, a .295 batting average, was Steve Sacks. Congratulations, Steve! He’ll be receiving a check for $500 for his prognostication abilities. Steve correctly predicted the signing teams for Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Jose Abreu, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, David Robertson, and Adam Ottavino.
Second and third place went to Jeffery Fruge and Andrew Farroll, who also received cash prizes.
Additionally, 28 people got at least ten predictions correct and will receive a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office. I topped the field of MLBTR writers, mustering a mediocre eight correct predictions.
The full leaderboard can be found here. All winners have been notified, so if you got at least ten correct, check your email.
Check back here in about seven months, and we’ll do it all over again for Shohei Ohtani and all the rest!
Padres Sign Jake Cronenworth To Seven-Year Extension
April 1: The Padres have now announced the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that it’ll be an $80MM pact over the seven year term. As previously reported, the deal doesn’t start until 2024 though so it won’t affect the Padres’ luxury tax calculation this year. Dennis Lin of The Athletic adds that it includes a limited, eight-team no trade clause.
March 31: The Padres have reached an agreement with infielder Jake Cronenworth on a seven-year extension, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. According to Lin, the contract starts with the 2024 season. Lin notes that Cronenworth “has already passed his physical and the deal is expected to be announced on Saturday.” Cronenworth is represented by CAA Sports.
Cronenworth, 29, has proven capable of playing second base, first base, and shortstop in his big league career thus far. Though Cronenworth has by far played second base the most since coming up in 2020, the Padres’ signing of shortstop Xander Bogaerts in December pushes him to first base for 2023. Cronenworth’s new contract runs through 2030, adding further long-term stability to an infield that already has Bogaerts and third baseman Manny Machado signed through 2033. About a month ago, the Padres signed Machado to an extension, as the superstar was otherwise expected to deploy his opt-out clause after ’23.
Cronenworth was drafted by the Rays in the seventh round in 2015 out of the University of Michigan, where he pitched and played infield. In December of 2019, the Rays traded Cronenworth and Tommy Pham to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, Xavier Edwards, and Esteban Quiroz. After he won the International League batting crown in ’19, Baseball America rated the two-way Cronenworth as a 45-grade prospect. At the time they wrote, “Cronenworth is a heady player who gets the most out of his average tools.”
The Padres asked Cronenworth to hit pause on the pitching idea in 2020, and he made their Opening Day roster in July of that pandemic-shortened season. The left-handed-hitting Cronenworth ended up getting the bulk of the Padres’ innings at second base as a rookie that year, at a time when Eric Hosmer was their first baseman and Fernando Tatis Jr. their shortstop. Cronenworth and Alec Bohm tied for second in the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Devin Williams.
The Padres signed Ha-Seong Kim in December of 2020, and talked at the time about getting Cronenworth some reps in the outfield. That didn’t come to pass, but Cronenworth did spend time in ’21 filling in for Tatis at shortstop. He also earned his first All-Star nod, and posted a 116 wRC+ on the season.
Cronenworth settled in at second base for 2022, making another All-Star team though ultimately slipping a bit to a 109 wRC+. Cronenworth’s solid defense around the infield, above-average hitting, durability, and versatility led to 4.1 WAR in each of the ’21 and ’22 seasons. With exactly three years of service after ’22, Cronenworth inked a one-year arbitration deal for 2023 worth $4.225MM.
Cronenworth’s new seven-year deal, then, buys out his final two arbitration years plus another five of free agency. The seven-year term is perhaps the most surprising element, as it will carry Cronenworth through the age of 36. Back in January, the Mets signed second baseman Jeff McNeil to an extension that also bought out two arbitration years, but that contract bought out two free agent years with an option for a third. Another point of comparison is the Rockies’ March 2022 extension for Ryan McMahon, which bought out two arbitration years and four free agent seasons.
We’ve yet to see a dollar figure on Cronenworth’s extension, but surely the competitive balance tax played a significant role in the deal. As you know, a team’s CBT payroll is calculated using the average annual values of multiyear contracts. Unexpectedly long terms and therefore lower AAVs have been a theme throughout GM A.J. Preller’s offseason. Robert Suarez got five years, Bogaerts received 11, Yu Darvish had five years added, and Michael Wacha signed what is considered a four-year deal.
Cronenworth’s new extension doesn’t affect the Padres’ 2023 payroll, which at an estimated $276MM currently sits above the third tax tier of $273MM. Should the team end 2023 above $273MM, their top draft pick in 2024 will be pushed back ten spots – in addition to the tax penalties owed as a third-time payor.
Cronenworth joins Machado, Bogaerts, Darvish, Tatis, Suarez, and Joe Musgrove as Padres signed through at least 2027. Before accounting for Cronenworth, but including Nick Martinez and the aforementioned six players, the Padres’ 2025 CBT payroll exceeds $137MM. Kim, the Padres’ current second baseman, is signed through 2024.
A pair of big-name Padres are still on one-year arbitration deals: Juan Soto and Josh Hader. Regarding Soto, slated for free agency after 2024, Lin writes, “there have been no indications that the Padres have engaged the star outfielder in serious talks about a potentially record-setting extension.”
In a March article for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, MLBTR’s Steve Adams laid out a Hader extension scenario that would reduce this year’s luxury tax hit, writing, “If the Padres want to keep threading the creative contract needle, offering Hader the longest (if not the largest) contract ever signed by a reliever would probably only qualify as the fourth- or fifth-craziest move they’ve made over the past calendar year.”
Cubs Offseason Chat Transcript
I published my Cubs Offseason in Review yesterday, and today I held a live chat! Click here to read the transcript.
Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs
Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live Cubs-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.
Major League Signings
- Dansby Swanson, SS: seven years, $177MM
- Jameson Taillon, SP: four years, $68MM
- Drew Smyly, SP: two years, $19MM. Can opt out of one year, $11MM with 100 innings pitched in 2023
- Cody Bellinger, CF: one year, $17.5MM. Includes $25MM mutual option for 2024 with a $5MM buyout
- Trey Mancini, DH/1B/LF: two years, $14MM. Can opt out of one year, $7MM with 350 plate appearances in 2023
- Tucker Barnhart, C: two years, $6.5MM. Can opt out of one year, $3.25MM after 2023
- Michael Fulmer, RP: one year, $4MM
- Brad Boxberger, RP: one year, $2.8MM. Includes $5MM mutual option with an $800K buyout
- Edwin Rios, 3B: one year, $1MM. Can be controlled through 2025 through arbitration
- Eric Hosmer, 1B: one year, $720K
- Total spend: $310.52MM
Options Exercised
- None
Trades and Claims
- Acquired IF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni from Rays for RP Alfredo Zarraga
- Claimed IF Rylan Bannon off waivers from Braves (later claimed by Astros)
- Claimed P Anthony Kay off waivers from Blue Jays (lated outrighted)
- Claimed RP Julian Merryweather off waivers from Blue Jays
Notable Minor League Signings
- Brailyn Marquez, Eric Stout, Ben DeLuzio, Roenis Elias, Nick Neidert, Ryan Borucki, Brad Wieck, Dom Nunez, Vinny Nittoli, Mike Tauchman, Jordan Holloway, Luis Torrens, Tyler Duffey, Mark Leiter Jr.
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Willson Contreras, Rafael Ortega, Alfonso Rivas, P.J. Higgins, Franmil Reyes, Jason Heyward, Wade Miley, Michael Hermosillo
The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach. It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years. Otherwise, manager David Ross‘ coaching staff largely remained the same.
The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation. Contreras, of course, declined. Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.
From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson. Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.
As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history. The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.
Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings. That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad. But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.
Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate. I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so. Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations. It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.
Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th. MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM. I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was. It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.
The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone. MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa. But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical. That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.
As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening. That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa. Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement. While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.
Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone. The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years. Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range. He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average. The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.
It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well. The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras. Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.
Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical. The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture. The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price. The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.
It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman. But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout. And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals. Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.
So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops. But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.
Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins. Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022. Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.
Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target. Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.” It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.
While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values. Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling. The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family. The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.
The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher. The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal. The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024. For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.
Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy. Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart. Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop. Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed. Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.
Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway. The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing. It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half. The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup. Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure. Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.
For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys. However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.” So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger. There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.
The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon. Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons. On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras. Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.
For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious. Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot. The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range. The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.
Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason. While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.
How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)
How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason?
-
B 53% (1,525)
-
C 26% (756)
-
A 12% (337)
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D 6% (164)
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F 4% (107)
Total votes: 2,889
Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former Mets And Orioles GM Jim Duquette
Jim Duquette played baseball at Williams College in the 80s. In the early 90s, he began working for the Mets, a long tenure outside of a one-year stint as Astros director of development.
With the Mets, Duquette rose through the ranks to become the team’s GM in 2003. He first landed the position when the Mets fired incumbent Steve Phillips that summer. As interim GM, Duquette’s moves included trading veterans Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Armando Benitez, Graeme Lloyd, and Rey Sanchez.
Mets owner Fred Wilpon removed the interim tag from Duquette’s title after the season, and he became the third-youngest GM in the game. Coming off a 66-95 season, Duquette said, “This really is my dream job. I’m going to give it everything I can to improve the team, not only for the organization and our players, but for our fans. I’m confident we’re going to turn it around and we’re going to do it quickly.”
Duquette’s 2003-04 offseason free agent acquisitions included Kaz Matsui, Braden Looper, John Franco, Todd Zeile, and Mike Cameron. Duquette was active at the July trade deadline in ’04, moving Scott Kazmir in a deal for Victor Zambrano. He also acquired Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger in a deal with the Pirates.
The ’04 Mets didn’t do much better, however, and Wilpon brought in Omar Minaya to head up baseball operations toward the end of the season. After a year working under Minaya, Duquette moved to the Orioles to become vice president for baseball operations under Mike Flanagan. Key club acquisitions during Duquette’s two years in that position included Corey Patterson, Jeff Conine, Kevin Millar, Kris Benson, Jay Payton, Aubrey Huff, and Jeremy Guthrie.
After 17 years in MLB front offices, Duquette began a career as a member of the baseball media. He’s written for MLB.com and The Athletic, served as an analyst for Mets games, and had a long-running show on SiriusXM Radio. You may also know Jim’s cousin, Dan, who served as GM of the Expos, Red Sox, and Orioles.
I asked Jim to join us for a live chat, and he agreed! Click here to read the transcript.
If you’re a former MLB GM, we’d love to have you come on for a chat! Click here to contact us.
View The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Rays Reliever Ryan Thompson
A fan of Byung-Hyun Kim growing up, righty and Oregon native Ryan Thompson realized he was more comfortable throwing sidearm, leading to success at Cascade High School but not much interest from colleges or MLB teams. Several years later, he was drafted in the 23rd round of the 2014 draft by the Astros after starring at North Carolina’s Campbell University.
By the summer of 2017, Thompson was a 27-year-old sidearm reliever struggling with a brief taste of the Triple-A level. It turned out Thompson needed Tommy John surgery that year.
Thompson later commented in an interview with Brett Friedlander of the North State Journal, “I found out I had a lot of complacencies I was neglecting. When your mind is so focused on baseball and competing and getting guys out, you don’t really have that time to think about who you are and where you’re going in your relationships, your diet and all these other things. So I had a full year to not think about baseball. I became a better human being. I lost 30 pounds and when I came back, that was the year that made my career. If I didn’t have that surgery, I don’t think I’d be here right now.”
Thompson missed the entire 2018 season recovering from the procedure, but then the Rays swooped in to nab him in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft. He got back on the mound in May of 2019, pitching at the Double-A level.
In 2020, the Rays brought Thompson to spring training and the subsequent July summer camp. He made the team’s Opening Day roster, debuting with two scoreless innings against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays. In a later interview with his alma mater’s magazine, Thompson said, “I always thought when I got the call to the big leagues, I’d break down into tears. But when I got the call, it was just relief. I’d given up the past 10 years of my life for this. I was living in my mom’s basement at 28 for this. And now I made it, and I wasn’t going to lose it.”
A few weeks later Thompson served as an opener against the Yankees, also putting up two scoreless frames. The 28-year-old rookie wound up getting into nine postseason games for the Rays in 2020. Thompson again served as the opener against the Yankees in ALDS Game 4, and even tossed three scoreless innings in the World Series against the Dodgers.
Thompson was racking up holds in the 2021 season until hitting the IL in June with shoulder inflammation. By September, Thompson required thoracic outlet surgery. He recovered successfully from that procedure, pitching well in 2022 until he was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right elbow in September. Thus far he’s made one spring training appearance in 2023.
In his young big league career, Thompson has made 108 regular season appearances, with another nine in the ’20 postseason. He’s punched out sluggers such as Mike Trout and Pete Alonso. So far, Thompson sports a 3.50 ERA, a 52.5% groundball rate, a 6.5 BB%, four saves, and 25 holds. His scoreless work in the 2020 World Series includes a strikeout of Mookie Betts.
In February, Ryan caught our eye with an interesting Twitter thread about his experience going to an arbitration hearing against the Rays, which he lost. Thompson broke down the comparables, stats used, and arguments made by each side in a way I haven’t seen before, and it’s well worth a read. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @R_Thompson15.
Ryan kindly agreed to chat today with MLBTR readers after the conclusion of today’s spring training game against the Tigers. Click here to view the transcript!
View The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Former MLB All-Star Pitcher Dan Haren
Dan Haren joined MLBTR readers for a chat Wednesday evening. Click here to view the transcript. If you’re a current or former MLB player who would like to do a chat here, contact us!
Dan Haren was drafted in the second round in 2001 by the Cardinals out of Pepperdine. He reached the Majors in June of 2003, throwing a quality start against Barry Bonds and the Giants.
Haren spent the bulk of the following season at Triple-A, rejoining the big league club late in the season and moving in and out of the rotation. He wound up pitching in five games during the postseason that year, including two scoreless outings in the World Series.
After the ’04 season, the Cardinals traded Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero to the A’s for Mark Mulder. Haren quickly became a horse in Oakland’s rotation, and by the end of his first season with the A’s he signed a four-year extension covering his arbitration years worth $12.65MM. From 2005-07 with the A’s, Haren made 34 starts each year and totaled 662 2/3 innings. The 2006 A’s won the AL West and made it to the ALCS, with Haren making two postseason starts and winning one of them.
In 2007, Haren stepped into the leadership void left by Barry Zito’s departure, getting the Opening Day nod and starting for the AL All-Star team. However, after that season the A’s and GM Billy Beane went into a rebuild, shipping Haren to the Diamondbacks for Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, and Greg Smith. Haren joined a D-backs rotation that already had Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson.
2008 was another excellent All-Star season for Haren, in which he led the NL in strikeout to walk ratio. Before that season ended, Haren signed a new extension with Arizona potentially running through 2013. His excellence continued in ’09, as Haren finished fifth in the Cy Young voting and again led the league in strikeout to walk ratio.
However, at the 2010 trade deadline, Haren was on the move in a blockbuster trade for the third time in his career. This time he was headed to the Angels for Patrick Corbin, Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, and Tyler Skaggs. He continued his dominance in 2011, leading the league in strikeout to walk ratio yet again and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.
After the 2012 season, Haren was nearly traded to the Cubs for Carlos Marmol, but Chicago balked and the Angels declined his club option. Reaching free agency for the first time in his career, MLBTR ranked Haren eighth on our top 50 list. He inked a one-year deal with the Nationals that winter. After a difficult season in D.C. (by his lofty standards), Haren landed closer to home with another one-year deal, this time with the Dodgers. Upon reaching 180 innings for the Dodgers, a $10MM player option vested for 2015, and Haren exercised it.
Another season with the Dodgers was not in the cards for Haren, however, and he landed with the Marlins as part of blockbuster trade number four. That was hardly Haren’s preference, but the Marlins hung onto him until they shipped him to the Cubs at the ’15 trade deadline. Rather than explore free agency again, Haren chose to hang up his cleats at the age of 35.
Over the seven-year span from 2005-11, Haren was one of the very best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. His WAR total of 33.2 during that time ranked fourth in baseball, and his innings total ranked second. Though he typically topped out around 92 miles per hour in his prime, Haren was a master of command and an old-school horse. He pitched at least 216 innings in each of those seven seasons, and his total of 1,581 1/3 was topped only by CC Sabathia. Haren finished his career with three All-Star appearances, two top-seven Cy Young finishes, 153 wins, and a 3.75 ERA.
In recent years, Haren has served as a “pitching strategist” for the Diamondbacks, in which he “provides advance scouting reports and guidance to the club’s pitchers to maximize results on the mound.” You can find him on Twitter @ithrow88. That’s exactly what we did, and Dan graciously accepted our invitation to chat with MLBTR readers. Click here to join in!
White Sox Offseason In Review Chat Transcript
My White Sox Offseason in Review post came out last night! Please give it a read.
In association with that post, I held a White Sox chat for nearly two hours this morning. Click here to read the transcript.
Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox
Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
The White Sox made additions as expected at left field, second base, and in the rotation. GM Rick Hahn brought in a new manager and largely stayed out of the trade market, resulting in a team that needs to see increased production from incumbents.
Major League Signings
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: five years, $75MM
- Mike Clevinger, SP: one year, $12MM
- Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS: one year, $3MM
- Total spend: $90MM
Options Exercised
Trades and Claims
- Selected RP Nick Avila in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired RP Gregory Santos from Giants for RP Kade McClure
- Claimed P A.J. Alexy off waivers from Twins
- Acquired RP Franklin German from Red Sox for RP Theo Denlinger
Notable Minor League Signings
- Victor Reyes, Jake Marisnick, Bryan Shaw, Hanser Alberto, Billy Hamilton, Mike Morin, Erik Gonzalez, Keynan Middleton, Nate Fisher, Nate Mondou, Chris Shaw, Ricardo Sanchez
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Jose Abreu, Johnny Cueto, AJ Pollock, Josh Harrison, Vince Velasquez, Adam Engel, Danny Mendick, Bennett Sousa, Jason Bilous
The White Sox kicked off their offseason with the hire of Pedro Grifol as manager. The 52-year-old former Royals coach will hopefully serve as a breath of fresh air after Tony La Russa’s two-year tenure. Perhaps to compensate for Grifol’s lack of managing experience, Charlie Montoyo will serve as his bench coach. Jose Castro is the new hitting coach, also taking on this role for the first time. He’ll be assisted by another new addition, Chris Johnson.
After making fairly obvious calls to exercise Tim Anderson’s option and decline that of Josh Harrison, the club was given an extra $8MM to play with due to a surprising decision by AJ Pollock. Pollock chose a $5MM buyout over a $13MM player option, despite a disappointing season. He ended up signing with the Mariners for $7MM, sacrificing a million bucks in the process, but finding what he presumably feels is a better situation for playing time. That’s a bit odd, because the only sure thing in Chicago’s outfield at that point was the oft-injured Luis Robert. Pollock explained this month to The Athletic’s Corey Brock, “I just felt for me and for the team, in talking with them, there would be a better fit somewhere else.”
At November’s GM Meetings, Rick Hahn noted he expected to be more active this offseason in trades as opposed to free agency. Not long after that, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine noted that the Sox “[had] their eye on” Oakland catcher Sean Murphy. Murphy, of course, would wind up with the Braves in a December trade that also brought William Contreras to Milwaukee. James McCann was also traded this offseason, while free agency included catchers Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, Mike Zunino, Austin Hedges, Curt Casali, and Luke Maile.
Given those catching options and their prices, Hahn chose to stand pat. The Sox will stick with incumbents Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala behind the dish. After a terrible 2022 season marred by October ’21 knee surgery, Grandal has spent this offseason training with Blackhawks strength and conditioning coach Paul Goodman, according to James Fegan of The Athletic.
It was clear the White Sox were going to add a starting pitcher this winter, and in late November they reached an agreement with Mike Clevinger. Clevinger, 32, had a middling post-Tommy John surgery season in ’22 for the Padres, particularly over his last 13 starts including the postseason. Unbeknownst to the White Sox at that time, Clevinger was under investigation by MLB following allegations of domestic violence. Earlier this week, MLB announced that they “will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations.”
Shortly after the Clevinger agreement in November, longtime White Sox star Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM deal with the Astros. At the age of 36, we thought Abreu would be limited to two-year offers. The Guardians reportedly offered three years as well, though at an unknown average annual value. Abreu later commented through an interpreter that the White Sox made a “really good offer” of unknown value. But unlike the first time Abreu approached free agency, the White Sox did not seem likely to retain him. They’ve lost their best hitter from 2022, but did open up first base for Andrew Vaughn as expected. Vaughn logged 645 innings in the corner outfield spots for the Sox last year and struggled defensively.
With limited payroll space, it seemed in December that the White Sox were at least willing to discuss closer Liam Hendriks in trades. Such concerns took a backseat to the unfortunate news in January that Hendriks would undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. As Hahn put it in a statement, “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player. I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.”
In my October offseason outlook for the White Sox, I suggested that Pollock and Adam Engel might continue to serve as the backup plan in center field, given Luis Robert‘s injury history. Pollock chose free agency, and the club non-tendered Engel. Instead, the White Sox added Jake Marisnick, Billy Hamilton, and Victor Reyes on minor league deals. Leury Garcia has also played some center field, but in general, I expected the Sox to add a better safety net for Robert.
The White Sox did address their left field situation in a decisive way, signing Andrew Benintendi to a five-year, $75MM contract that ranks as the largest deal in franchise history. Coming off a season in which he hit five home runs in 521 plate appearances, we were surprised to see Benintendi land a five-year deal. But as MLBTR’s Steve Adams put it, the 28-year-old Benintendi is a high-floor player who has “settled in as a contact-oriented left fielder who draws walks, rarely strikes out, and provides quality defense.” It seems that the Sox at least explored trade options before signing Benintendi, as they were connected to the Arizona outfield surplus before the Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays.
While the White Sox reportedly expressed interest in Royals infielder Nicky Lopez in late January, he has not been traded to date. The free agent market offered second base capable players such as Brandon Drury, Jean Segura, Aledmys Diaz, and Adam Frazier. Plenty of middle infielders were traded, such as Kevin Newman, Kyle Farmer, Kolten Wong, Miguel Rojas, Luis Arraez, and Adalberto Mondesi. The Sox instead opted to bring Elvis Andrus back on an affordable $3MM deal in February.
Andrus, 34, has yet to play second base in his 14-year MLB career, but he’ll do so for the White Sox. He’ll also be available as a capable backup for shortstop Tim Anderson, who has played in about 62% of Chicago’s games since 2021. Though a certain portion of the White Sox fanbase would like to move on from Anderson, the club conveyed to potential suitors that they would not be trading him, reported Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic during the Winter Meetings.
Anderson, 29, is under team control through 2024 via a club option. Speaking to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin in February, it sounds like Anderson would prefer some clarity on his future with the club. He said, “I’m on two option years, and we let it get here and it’s like, dang, I kind of want to know where my feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is and I want to know where I’m going to be at.” He also made quite clear he’d like to stay. Anderson’s heir apparent, former first-round pick Colson Montgomery, could be knocking on the door of the Majors when Anderson enters his contract year.
Turnover has been constant in right field for the White Sox in recent years. Grifol and the White Sox would like to see 24-year-old prospect Oscar Colas win the everyday job, with Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia, and Marisnick considered other options. Eloy Jimenez is primarily expected to serve as designated hitter, but may play right field occasionally. Colas has only seven games at the Triple-A level, but has a chance to seize the job early this year.
Hahn’s other offseason moves were around the margins, grabbing Nick Avila in the Rule 5 draft and acquiring cheaply-available arms like Franklin German, Gregory Santos, and A.J. Alexy.
While Hahn likely entertained more trades than the ones that reached the rumor mill, ultimately his offseason was a predictable one. The chances of the 2023 White Sox mostly rest on players that were already in-house. Specifically, it will boil down to seven players who disappointed due to some combination of injury and underperformance in 2022. Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez have been unable to stay healthy the past two years. Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and Lance Lynn combined for 15.9 WAR in 2021 and 4.2 in ’22, a difference of nearly 12 wins.
Though the club can’t count on big offense from Andrus or Colas, the other seven members of the team’s likely starting lineup all project as above average hitters. The team’s rotation is fronted by Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease, while Lynn and Giolito should be solid if not aces. Even without Hendriks, a bullpen fronted by Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, and Reynaldo Lopez could be formidable.
The 2023 White Sox are a team that is surprisingly easy to dream on, but also a team light on depth in certain spots. If Grandal struggles again, Seby Zavala isn’t likely to provide much offense from the catcher spot. There are some backup plans for Anderson and Moncada, but the outfield looks thin if Robert goes on the IL or Colas doesn’t hit the ground running. Similarly, the rotation has question marks in the fourth and fifth spots with Michael Kopech and Clevinger and has little room to sustain injuries.
While the 2022 season left a bad taste in fans’ mouths, FanGraphs suggests the AL Central is mostly a toss-up among the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox. It’ll be interesting to see what this post-hype team can do if key players stay healthy.