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Free Agent Prediction Contest Deadline Tonight

By Tim Dierkes | November 7, 2014 at 8:36pm CDT

Dust off your crystal ball again, it’s time for MLBTR’s fourth annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team. Last year’s winner had 13 correct; can you beat that?

How To Play

  • Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents. For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
  • A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest. You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
  • Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom. The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight. Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest. We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
  • Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 7th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick. It’s kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won’t do it.
  • The leaderboard will rank contestants by “batting average” on correct picks, once players start signing. The leaderboard will show everyone’s full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

  • Final picks must be saved by November 7th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
  • MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
  • One entry per person, please.
  • With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents. If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR’s discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
  • Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

  • $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
  • More prizes to come
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Free Agent Profile: James Shields

By Tim Dierkes | November 6, 2014 at 6:28pm CDT

In December 2012, the Rays traded James Shields, Wade Davis, and Elliot Johnson to the Royals for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard.  Myers was regarded as one of the best prospects in the game at the time, so the Royals paid a huge price to add Shields atop their rotation.  Big Game James anchored the Royals’ rotation for two years, living up to his reputation as a workhorse and posting a 3.18 ERA for his new club.  Now, Shields enters free agency for the first time in his career.

Strengths/Pros

Shields has never been on the disabled list in his nine-year career and has served as the ultimate rotation workhorse.  Since 2007, Shields has averaged 231 innings and more than 34 starts per season, including the postseason.  This year for the Royals, Shields tallied 252 innings across 39 starts.  He tied for sixth in baseball with 227 regular season innings, and led the American League in 2013 with a similar total.  From 2013-14, Shields’ 455 2/3 regular season innings ranks second in all of baseball.

James Shields

Shields’ ability to go deep into games is a bullpen-saver, a trait that the pitcher finds very important.  This year in the regular season, he averaged 6.68 innings per start, which ranked 13th in baseball.  He was even better in the three years prior, averaging 7.06 innings per start.  Shields tied for the MLB lead with 27 quality starts in 2013, and tied for 10th with 24 this year.

It’s not just about the innings with Shields, of course.  He’s also a very good pitcher.  He has a 3.18 regular season ERA over the past two seasons, which ranked 23rd in baseball and 10th in the AL.  He was worth 8.2 wins above replacement in that time, 14th in MLB.  If we calculate WAR using Shields’ actual runs allowed, he jumps up to 9.9, basically a tie for the seventh-best figure in baseball.  Whether or not Shields fits your definition of an ace, he’d be the best starting pitcher on a lot of different teams.

How does he do it?  One key attribute is Shields’ stellar control.  He allowed only 1.7 walks per nine innings this year, 14th among qualified starters.  2013 aside, Shields has generally hovered around 2.3 walks per nine.  These days, he relies primarily on a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a changeup.  Shields has generally been known for possessing one of the game’s best changeups, and the numbers bear that out at least for 2011-13.

For someone like Jon Lester, his fastball velocity is trending downward, as you’d expect as a pitcher enters his 30s.  Shields, on the other hand, started his career working around 90 miles per hour and steadily increased to the point where he averaged a career-best 92.4 miles per hour in 2014.

Weaknesses/Cons

Shields has been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last four seasons.  But where will he slot in over the next four or five?  The average American League starting pitcher this year posted a 7.35 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 43.2% groundball rate, 3.92 ERA, and 3.89 SIERA.  Shields posted a 7.14 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 45.2% groundball rate, 3.21 ERA, and 3.59 SIERA.  He was undoubtedly above average, owing to his control and innings total.  But he had a below average strikeout rate, and he wasn’t anything special at preventing home runs.  His vaunted changeup seemed to go missing for the first two-thirds of the season, and he didn’t look good in the playoffs, posting a 6.12 ERA and allowing 36 hits in 25 innings.

American League starters have stranded about 72.5% of baserunners over the past two seasons, while Shields has stranded 77.1%.  From 2006-12, Shields’ LOB% was 72.6%.  If we assume his true talent is close to that of the league and the first seven years of his career, we might say he’s been lucky to have left so many runners on base while pitching for the Royals.  That may account for much of the difference between his 3.68 SIERA and 3.18 ERA.  Shields’ 3.68 SIERA from 2013-14 ranked 34th among qualified starters and is comparable to fellow free agent Ervin Santana (3.70, 37th).

Shields’ strikeout rate bounced around in the 8.1-8.8 per nine range from 2010-12, but he’s at 7.43 per nine over the past two seasons.  He’s not missing a lot of bats relative to league average these days, and he allowed nearly a hit per inning in 2014 despite no anomalies with his batting average on balls in play.  The Royals were baseball’s best defensive team for each of Shields’ years with them, and leaving that defense could hurt him on balls in play.

Shields has been mostly a flyball pitcher outside of 2012, and in the first seven years of his career with the Rays he allowed 1.14 home runs per nine innings.  That came down to 0.85 per nine with the Royals, who play in a ballpark known for suppressing home runs.  Shields might be a bad fit for a place like Yankee Stadium or Minute Maid Park.

Shields turns 33 years old in December.  Max Scherzer will play most of next season at age 30, and Lester will pitch at age 31.  Aside from Jake Peavy and Hiroki Kuroda, all the second-tier starting pitchers are also younger.

Shields was one of four starting pitchers to receive a qualifying offer, and all of them figure to decline on Monday.  Potential suitors such as the Marlins, Yankees, or Giants would have to forfeit their first-round draft pick in 2015 to sign him.

Personal

Shields was born in Newhall, California and resides in Rancho Santa Fe, CA with his wife and two daughters.  He was offered a full scholarship to Louisiana State University out of high school, but chose to sign with the Rays instead.

You might be familiar with Shields’ cousin, former White Sox, Phillies, and Giants outfielder Aaron Rowand.  Rowand gave cousin Jamie a wake-up call of sorts when the pitcher was in the minors.  “I was being kind of lazy and just trying to let my talent take over,” Shields told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune in 2008.  The pitcher moved to Las Vegas for early morning training with Rowand and remembered his cousin telling him, “I’m going to show you how big leaguers really work and how to stay healthy every season and do what it takes to succeed in this game.”  Shields owes a lot to his family, crediting older brother Jeremy for teaching him the changeup that set his career back on track following surgery for a benign cyst in his shoulder in ’02.

James and his wife started the Big Game James Club in 2010, an initiative inviting foster children to Tropicana Field.

Market

Starting pitching is plentiful this winter, but Shields is the third-best starter and shouldn’t require the six or seven-year commitments Jon Lester and Max Scherzer will.  He’s a durable, veteran leader who soaks up innings and has ample postseason experience, if not a strong record in that arena.  The Royals will attempt to re-sign Shields, but otherwise the Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Angels, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Marlins, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, White Sox, and Tigers may be looking for starting pitching in some capacity.  However, it’s not likely all of those teams will be willing to make the kind of commitment it will take to sign Shields.

It’s been suggested Shields is off the Yankees’ radar, and likewise outside of Arizona’s comfort zone, financially speaking.  Shields has been rumored as a potential fallback option for the Cubs, should they fail to sign Lester.  The Red Sox are an oft-cited suitor, though Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote in September that Shields would be “off the list” if he requires a five-year deal.  Boston reportedly topped out at an insulting four-year, $70MM offer to Lester in Spring Training, which would make a five-year offer exceeding $90MM to Shields seem inconsistent.

Expected Contract

Shields was drafted by the Devil Rays out of high school in the 16th round in 2000, and he never ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects.  He broke into the Majors at age 24.  After impressing in his first full season in ’07, he signed a four-year, $11.25MM deal with the Rays that contained three club options.  He ended up earning about $40.5MM for seven seasons, the last two of which would have been free agent years.  Shields can hardly be blamed for locking in his first fortune at age 26, but now he finally has freedom to choose where he signs and to sign for his full market value.

Shields should not have a problem securing multiple four-year offers.  It is that fifth year, covering his age-37 season, that will be a sticking point for some clubs.  To find a free agent starting pitching contract of four of more years that included someone’s age-37 season, you have to go back six years to Derek Lowe’s deal with the Braves.  That remarkable four-year contract covered Lowe’s age 36-39 seasons and was almost immediately regrettable.  That was the offseason the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, leaving Scott Boras clients Lowe and Oliver Perez as the most desirable starters.  This free agent market is not set up that way, but I think Shields’ reputation as a workhorse will net him that fifth year.  For a deeper look at where Shields fits in with historical free agent comparables like C.J. Wilson, John Lackey, and A.J. Burnett, check out Jeff Todd’s excellent piece from March.

In some offseasons, Shields would have been the best available starter, but this winter he must contend with Scherzer and Lester.  Shields’ average annual value depends on how he is viewed.  Some teams might see him as Scherzer/Lester lite, justifying a $20-22MM salary.  Others could view him as Ervin Santana plus, suggesting $18-19MM.  That’s a fairly wide spread, but I’m going with a five-year, $95MM deal for Shields.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles Kansas City Royals Newsstand James Shields

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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2015

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2014 at 12:20am CDT

As explained in this series of posts, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  We’ve heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet!  Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with all the projected salaries.  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2014 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

Angels (11)

  • Gordon Beckham (5.123) – $5.0MM
  • Matt Joyce (5.123) – $4.9MM
  • David Freese (5.028) – $6.3MM
  • Fernando Salas (4.048) – $1.4MM
  • Drew Butera (4.018) – $900K
  • Cesar Ramos (4.003) – $1.3MM
  • Vinnie Pestano (3.054) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-10-14
  • Wade LeBlanc (3.038) – $800K
  • Hector Santiago (3.016) – $2.2MM
  • Collin Cowgill (2.151) – $900K
  • Garrett Richards (2.148) – $4.0MM

Astros (8)

  • Dexter Fowler (5.168) – $9.0MM
  • Tony Sipp (5.100) – $1.5MM
  • Jason Castro (4.104) – $3.9MM
  • Hank Conger (3.051) – $1.1MM
  • Carlos Corporan (3.019) – $1.0MM
  • Alex Presley (2.162) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-18-14
  • Chris Carter (2.159) – $3.5MM
  • Marwin Gonzalez (2.133) – $1.0MM

Athletics (11)

  • Ike Davis (4.155) – $4.4MM – reached agreement 12/2/14
  • Sam Fuld (4.140) – $1.6MM
  • Jesse Chavez (4.108) – $2.5MM
  • Craig Gentry (4.084) – $1.5MM
  • Josh Reddick (4.050) – $3.7MM
  • Fernando Abad (3.073) – $900K
  • Eric Sogard (3.064) – $1.0MM
  • Brett Lawrie (3.055) – $1.8MM
  • Fernando Rodriguez (3.053) – $900K – reached agreement 12/2/14
  • Ryan Cook (3.036) – $1.3MM
  • Jarrod Parker (3.000) – $900K

Blue Jays (4)

  • Marco Estrada (5.035) – $4.7MM
  • Brett Cecil (4.152) – $2.6MM
  • Danny Valencia (3.118) – $1.7MM
  • Josh Donaldson (2.158) – $4.5MM

Braves (2)

  • James Russell (5.000) – $2.4MM
  • Mike Minor (3.138) – $5.1MM

Brewers (3)

  • Gerardo Parra (5.145) – $6.4MM
  • Brandon Kintzler (3.101) – $900K – reached agreement 12-2-14
  • Martin Maldonado (2.156) – $1.0MM

Cardinals (5)

  • Jon Jay (4.134) – $4.5MM
  • Peter Bourjos (4.062) – $1.6MM
  • Jordan Walden (4.043) – $3.0MM – extended 12-23-14
  • Lance Lynn (3.119) – $5.5MM
  • Tony Cruz (3.105) – $700K

Cubs (8)

  • John Baker (5.141) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Coghlan (4.148) – $1.4MM
  • Luis Valbuena (4.148) – $3.1MM
  • Travis Wood (4.004) – $5.5MM
  • Pedro Strop (3.156) – $2.4MM
  • Jake Arrieta (3.145) – $4.1MM
  • Felix Doubront (3.120) – $1.3MM
  • Welington Castillo (3.009) – $2.1MM

Diamondbacks (6)

  • Cliff Pennington (5.114) – $3.3MM – reached agreement 12-28-14
  • David Hernandez (5.095) – $2.1MM – reached agreement 12-17-14
  • Daniel Hudson (4.117) – $700K
  • Jeremy Hellickson (4.045) – $3.9MM
  • Mark Trumbo (4.027) – $5.7MM
  • Addison Reed (3.027) – $3.8MM

Dodgers (6)

  • A.J. Ellis (4.151) – $3.8MM
  • Kenley Jansen (4.073) – $8.2MM
  • Darwin Barney (4.053) – $2.5MM – reached agreement 12-2-14
  • Justin Turner (4.045) – $2.2MM
  • Juan Nicasio (3.084) – $2.4MM
  • Joe Wieland (2.161) – $500K – avoided arbitration 12-6-14

Giants (7)

  • Casey McGehee (5.028) – $3.5MM
  • Gregor Blanco (4.164) – $3.5MM
  • Yusmeiro Petit (4.016) – $1.6MM
  • Brandon Belt (3.128) – $3.4MM
  • Travis Ishikawa (4.012) – $800K – reached agreement 12-4-14
  • Brandon Crawford (3.094) – $2.5MM
  • Hector Sanchez (2.166) – $1.0MM

Indians (6)

  • Brandon Moss (4.160) – $7.1MM
  • Marc Rzepczynski (4.132) – $1.9MM
  • Josh Tomlin (4.033) – $1.7MM
  • Carlos Carrasco (3.147) – $1.4MM
  • Bryan Shaw (3.081) – $1.5MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall (3.027) – $2.2MM

Mariners (7)

  • Austin Jackson (5.000) – $8.0MM
  • Michael Saunders (4.138) – $2.9MM
  • Logan Morrison (4.069) – $2.6MM
  • Justin Ruggiano (4.019) – $2.5MM
  • Charlie Furbush (3.121) – $1.0MM
  • Tom Wilhelmsen (3.091) – $2.1MM
  • Dustin Ackley (3.087) – $2.8MM

Marlins (7)

  • Mat Latos (5.079) – $8.4MM
  • Mike Dunn (4.079) – $2.3MM
  • Aaron Crow (4.000) – $2.0MM
  • Steve Cishek (3.143) – $6.9MM
  • Henderson Alvarez (3.051) – $4.5MM
  • David Phelps (2.156) – $1.3MM
  • Dee Gordon (2.154) – $2.5MM

Mets (6)

  • Bobby Parnell (5.132) – $3.7MM
  • Daniel Murphy (5.109) – $8.3MM
  • Dillon Gee (4.028) – $5.1MM
  • Ruben Tejada (3.171) – $1.7MM
  • Lucas Duda (3.137) – $4.3MM
  • Jenrry Mejia (2.140) – $3.1MM

Nationals (11)

  • Kevin Frandsen (5.151) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-13-14
  • Tyler Clippard (5.148) – $9.3MM
  • Jerry Blevins (5.081) – $2.2MM
  • Doug Fister (5.058) – $11.4MM
  • Craig Stammen (4.160) – $2.1MM
  • Drew Storen (4.140) – $5.8MM
  • Stephen Strasburg (4.118) – $8.1MM
  • Wilson Ramos (4.047) – $3.2MM
  • Jose Lobaton (3.138) – $1.2MM
  • Danny Espinosa (3.113) – $2.3MM
  • Bryce Harper (2.159) – $2.5MM – extended 12/15/14

Orioles (11)

  • Alejandro De Aza (5.139) – $5.9MM
  • Matt Wieters (5.129) – $7.9MM
  • Steve Pearce (5.116) – $2.2MM
  • Bud Norris (5.068) – $8.7MM
  • Tommy Hunter (5.066) – $4.4MM
  • Chris Davis (5.061) – $11.8MM
  • Brian Matusz (4.156) – $2.7MM
  • Chris Tillman (3.113) – $5.4MM
  • Miguel Gonzalez (3.095) – $3.7MM
  • Ryan Flaherty (3.000) – $1.0MM
  • Zach Britton (2.158) – $3.2MM

Padres (7)

  • Shawn Kelley (5.128) – $2.5MM
  • Ian Kennedy (5.124) – $10.3MM
  • Andrew Cashner (4.126) – $4.3MM
  • Tyson Ross (3.126) – $5.7MM
  • Yonder Alonso (3.116) – $1.6MM
  • Dale Thayer (3.071) – $1.3MM
  • Alexi Amarista (3.053) – $1.5MM

Phillies (3)

  • Ben Revere (3.149) – $4.0MM
  • Domonic Brown (3.078) – $2.6MM
  • Cesar Jimenez (3.020) – reached agreement 10-23-14

Pirates (12)

  • Sean Rodriguez (5.133) – $2.0MM
  • Antonio Bastardo (5.054) – $2.8MM
  • Neil Walker (4.166) – $8.6MM
  • Francisco Cervelli (4.146) – $1.1MM
  • Mark Melancon (4.098) – $7.6MM
  • Chris Stewart (4.091) – $1.3MM
  • Travis Snider (4.091) – $2.0MM
  • Pedro Alvarez (4.085) – $5.5MM
  • Tony Watson (3.101) – $2.0MM
  • Josh Harrison (3.033) – $2.2MM
  • Jared Hughes (2.162) – $1.1MM
  • Vance Worley (2.139) – $2.9MM

Rangers (4)

  • Adam Rosales (5.022) – $1.0MM
  • Ross Detwiler (5.002) – $3.3MM
  • Neftali Feliz (4.151) – $4.1MM
  • Mitch Moreland (4.067) – $2.8MM

Rays (8)

  • John Jaso (5.032) – $3.3MM
  • Kevin Jepsen (4.163) – $2.6MM
  • Jake McGee (3.127) – $3.8MM
  • Logan Forsythe (3.113) – $1.2MM
  • Desmond Jennings (3.101) – $3.2MM
  • Rene Rivera (3.082) – $1.3MM
  • Alex Cobb (3.061) – $4.5MM
  • Drew Smyly (2.154) – $3.0MM

Red Sox (4)

  • Rick Porcello (5.170) – $12.2MM
  • Junichi Tazawa (4.086) – $2.0MM
  • Daniel Nava (3.045) – $1.9MM
  • Wade Miley (3.044) – $4.3MM

Reds (7)

  • Mike Leake (5.000) – $9.5MM
  • Chris Heisey (4.157) – $2.2MM
  • Logan Ondrusek (4.125) – $2.3MM
  • Aroldis Chapman (4.034) – $8.3MM
  • Zack Cozart (3.084) – $2.3MM
  • Todd Frazier (3.071) – $4.6MM
  • Devin Mesoraco (3.028) – $2.8MM

Rockies (8)

  • Drew Stubbs (5.047) – $5.7MM
  • Jhoulys Chacin (5.012) – $4.9MM
  • Rex Brothers (3.117) – $1.3MM
  • Michael McKenry (3.097) – $1.5MM
  • Adam Ottavino (3.087) – $1.0MM
  • Jordan Lyles (3.060) – $2.5MM
  • Tyler Chatwood (3.039) – $1.0MM
  • Wilin Rosario (3.023) – $3.6MM

Royals (9)

  • Greg Holland (4.028) – $9.3MM
  • Eric Hosmer (3.146) – $5.2MM
  • Mike Moustakas (3.111) – $2.7MM
  • Tim Collins (3.097) – $1.5MM
  • Jarrod Dyson (3.088) – $1.3MM
  • Danny Duffy (3.085) – $2.6MM
  • Lorenzo Cain (3.074) – $2.3MM
  • Louis Coleman (2.162) – $700K
  • Kelvin Herrera (2.157) – $1.5MM

Tigers (4)

  • David Price (5.164) – $18.9MM
  • Alfredo Simon (5.142) – $5.1MM
  • Al Alburquerque (3.147) – $1.7MM
  • J.D. Martinez (3.036) – $2.9MM

Twins (6)

  • Brian Duensing (5.104) – $2.5MM
  • Jordan Schafer (4.121) – $1.5MM
  • Trevor Plouffe (3.162) – $4.3MM
  • Eduardo Nunez (3.090) – $1.2MM
  • Tommy Milone (2.165) – $2.8MM
  • Casey Fien (2.143) – $1.1MM

White Sox (6)

  • Jeff Samardzija (5.028) – $9.5MM
  • Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM
  • Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM
  • Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM
  • Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K
  • Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM

Yankees (6)

  • Esmil Rogers (4.088) – $1.9MM – reached agreement 12-2-14
  • Ivan Nova (4.024) – $3.3MM
  • Michael Pineda (3.099) – $2.1MM
  • David Huff (3.062) – $700K
  • David Carpenter (3.016) – $1.1MM
  • Nathan Eovaldi (3.013) – $3.1MM
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2015 Arbitration Eligibles Newsstand

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2014-15 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | November 3, 2014 at 11:52pm CDT

The ninth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list is here! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR?  Follow us on Twitter here, check out our free new app here, and listen to our podcast here.

This is the fourth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers.  Last year 4,443 people entered, with Mark Fenske taking home the batting title with 13 correct picks out of 48, a .271 average.  Ed Creech topped MLBTR writers with 11 correct.  The contest is back for 2015 and is open now!  You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 7th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point (I will certainly make changes up until the end).  A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest.  Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive sweet prizes. Here are the top 50 free agents for which you’ll be making predictions, along with my guesses.  Player names are linked to our Free Agent Profiles.

Please note that I’ve given up on trying to create a scenario where all 50 signings fit together, so you’ll see some redundant picks where multiple players are listed for a team that could only sign one of them.  I looked at each player individually and made a pick.

1.  Max Scherzer – Yankees.  Scherzer is the best starting pitcher in a free agent market loaded with quality arms, a 30-year-old strikeout machine with a Cy Young award on his resume.  Including the postseason, he tallied a 3.08 ERA in 461 1/3 innings spanning 2013-14.  Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM deal seems out of reach, as does its $30.7MM average annual value.  A better target would be something closer to the total outlay the Yankees made last winter for Masahiro Tanaka: seven years, $175MM.  Extension talks with the Tigers broke down in March after Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer.  The Kershaw, Tanaka, and Zack Greinke deals all included opt-out clauses, something agent Scott Boras will likely seek as he negotiates on behalf of his best free agent starting pitcher since Barry Zito.  As he has before, Boras may attempt to bypass GMs in favor of convincing a team’s owner to invest.  The Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are speculative suitors we’ve kicked around, with varying degrees of probability.  And we can’t count the Tigers out entirely quite yet.

2.  Jon Lester – Cubs.  Lester, a 30-year-old southpaw, posted a 2.46 ERA this year in 219 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics.  He was actually better this year than Scherzer in terms of ERA, and the two share identical 3.58 career marks.  Owing to a midseason trade to Oakland, Lester is ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Unable to work out an extension with Lester, the Red Sox traded him, but both sides have made an offseason reunion sound more likely than it usually is when a pending free agent star is dealt.  However, the Cubs are viewed as the industry favorite for Lester, given Theo Epstein’s time in Boston, the Cubs’ need for frontline starting pitching, and their large spending capacity this winter.  Lester should command at least the six years and $147MM Greinke received two years ago, and potentially more.

3.  James Shields – Red Sox.  The last of the Big Three starting pitchers of the 2014-15 offseason, Shields would have been the best available starter in a lot of previous winters.  Big Game James has been a workhorse throughout his career with the Rays and Royals, with a 3.21 ERA in 227 regular season innings this year.  He’s less of a strikeout pitcher than the two hurlers listed above him, he turns 33 in December, and he received a qualifying offer.  The Red Sox are expected to make a push for him if they fail to sign Lester, but he could certainly land with any of the teams we listed for Scherzer and probably a few more.  Shields could be in line for a five-year pact worth $100MM or more, though some teams will likely stop at four years given his age.

4.  Hanley Ramirez – Yankees.  Ramirez is the best available free agent position player this year.  The Dodgers and previous GM Ned Colletti were unable or unwilling to extend him, leaving shortstop an open question for 2015 for new chief Andrew Friedman.  Ramirez is a premium right-handed bat at a time when offense is harder to come by, yet he managed only 214 games from 2013-14 due to injuries.  He also comes with defensive question marks as a shortstop, and could spend much of his next deal at the hot corner.  The new Dodgers regime could re-engage Ramirez, but otherwise his market is unclear.  The Yankees, Giants, Mariners, and Tigers are speculative matches, though there’s no perfect fit at this point.  A six-year deal is likely for Ramirez, and he has a shot at reaching seven years like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury did last winter.

5.  Pablo Sandoval – Giants.  Sandoval, 28, is immensely popular in San Francisco, padding his postseason heroics this year.  The third baseman, nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, flashed 30 home run power in 2011, but averaged fewer than 16 longballs per 150 games in the three seasons that followed.  A great bad-ball hitter, the portly switch-hitter seems likely to be paid on his postseason reputation more so than his recent regular season results.  The thin market for free agent bats doesn’t hurt, either.  The Giants and Sandoval have mutual interest in a new deal, while the Red Sox are the oft-cited alternative.  The Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Marlins, and Brewers are a few other teams that don’t have third base entirely locked down.  Sandoval’s weight could give some teams pause, but if an older player like Choo received seven years, it has to be a possibility for Sandoval as well.  The average annual value may fall short of $20MM, on a six or seven-year deal.

6.  Victor Martinez – White Sox.  Martinez experienced a well-timed renaissance at age 35, hitting .335/.409/.565 with a career-high 32 home runs in 641 plate appearances.  The switch-hitter had one of the best offensive years in the game, let alone among free agents.  Since he turns 36 in December and spends most of his time at designated hitter, he’ll fall short of the contracts received by Hanley Ramirez and Sandoval.  He’s said to be seeking a four-year deal, which would be risky for any team but is justified based on his 2014 performance.  The White Sox hope to steal him away from their division-rival Tigers, while the Mariners, Orioles, Angels, and Rangers could be other possibilities.

7.  Melky Cabrera – Blue Jays.  Cabrera has an argument for the best free agent outfielder in this year’s class.  A switch-hitter, Cabrera is a 30-year-old left fielder who doesn’t strike out often.  He has a PED blemish on his resume, and like the three bats above him, he’ll require draft pick forfeiture to sign.  We’re still expecting a five-year deal approaching $70MM.  The Blue Jays will attempt to retain him, and the Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mets and Cubs could be other possibilities.

8.  Russell Martin – Cubs.  As the only catcher on this list and possibly the only viable free agent starting option at the position, Martin is in the catbird seat.  A career-best .402 on-base percentage further bolsters his case, and he’s known as an excellent defender and handler of pitching staffs.  The Pirates made a qualifying offer and extend their budget to try to re-sign him, but he’d make a fine upgrade over Welington Castillo for the Cubs.  The Dodgers could also get involved, and Martin would be an upgrade for the White Sox, Rockies, Tigers, Astros, and Mariners as well.

9.  Nelson Cruz – Orioles.  Cruz led all of MLB with 40 home runs this year, and he socked two more in the ALDS.  His type of power is extremely difficult to find these days, and the qualifying offer won’t crush his market like it did a year ago.  At that time, Cruz was coming off a PED suspension.  His age, 34, is another deterrent, and he’s limited defensively as well.  A four-year deal in the $60-70MM range is possible this time.  The Orioles will attempt to re-sign him, while the Mariners could be more convinced this time around after coming close to signing him last winter.

10.  Yasmany Tomas – Phillies.  Tomas is a unique free agent, in that he defected from Cuba this year and will be just 24 years old.  A right-handed hitting corner outfielder with huge power, Tomas comes with a lesser reputation and less certainty than countryman Jose Abreu did a year ago, yet Tomas could still top Rusney Castillo’s $72.5MM record for a Cuban player (set in August).  That could mean a seven-year deal worth around $100MM.  Tomas makes sense even for rebuilding teams, bringing the Phillies into play.  Earlier this month, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez also named the Rangers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, and Dodgers as other teams with strong interest.

11.  Ervin Santana – Giants.  A qualifying offer and high asking price forced Santana into a late one-year deal with the Braves last winter, but he should have a better outcome this time around as one of the best second-tier pitchers.  He’s a durable arm to plug into the middle of any rotation.  32 in December, Santana has averaged 207 innings from 2010-14.  His strikeout rate jumped to 8.2 per nine this year, his best mark since ’08.  The Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Giants figure to be in the market for starting pitching.

12.  Kenta Maeda – Astros.  Maeda, 27 in April, is the next big thing out of Japan.  The right-handed starting pitcher is expected to be posted by the Hiroshima Carp in November.  Assuming multiple teams reach the $20MM posting fee maximum, it will be open bidding among those clubs afterward.  As a team that fell short on Tanaka last year, the Astros could bring Maeda in to front their rotation for less than the Big Three starters will cost.  Most of the teams named for Ervin Santana could be possibilities here.

13.  David Robertson – Cubs.  Robertson is the best free agent reliever this winter, and the 29-year-old may be aiming to top Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM deal.  Indeed, a reliever of Robertson’s caliber hasn’t hit the free agent market since Papelbon three years ago.  The Yankees tendered a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer, which Robertson should easily turn down in search of a career payday.  The Cubs and White Sox are other potential fits given large amounts of payroll space and protected first-round picks.

14.  Brandon McCarthy – Pirates.  McCarthy came up big after a July 6th trade from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees, posting a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts.  The cerebral righty has a history of shoulder problems, however, and 2014 was his first time topping 170 2/3 innings.  That might make an Edwin Jackson-level four-year deal hard to come by, but it’s easy to picture a dozen different teams showing interest.

15.  Francisco Liriano – Red Sox.  The 31-year-old southpaw may come out seeking a four-year deal, but like McCarthy, low innings totals might prevent him from getting it.  Liriano brings lots of strikeouts and grounders but plenty of walks too.  He had a 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons in Pittsburgh; will that success carry over to a new team?  Liriano also carries the weight of a qualifying offer, so teams with protected first-rounders like the Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks could be better fits.

16.  Chase Headley – Red Sox.  Headley is one of the game’s best defensive third basemen.  The 30 home run power he showed in 2012 looks like a fluke, but he remains an above average hitter who draws a good share of walks.  Unlike Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Aramis Ramirez, Headley is not eligible for a qualifying offer.  He seems in good position for a four-year deal.  The Yankees may look to bring him back as A-Rod insurance, while the Red Sox might be their primary competition if they can’t sign Sandoval.  The Giants and Brewers could consider Headley if Sandoval and Aramis Ramirez move on, respectively.

17.  Andrew Miller – Tigers.  Miller’s stock rose dramatically after a dominant 2014 campaign.  He’s a hard-throwing lefty with a nasty slider and a huge strikeout rate, and he also kept his walks in check for the first time this year.  Unlike Robertson, Miller is not eligible for a qualifying offer.  He could be the first non-closing reliever to snag a four-year deal since 2007, and it’s easy to name a dozen potential suitors who would love to plug him into the eighth or ninth inning.

18.  Justin Masterson – Cubs.  Masterson, 30 in March, was very good in 2011 and ’13 when he was able to keep his walk rate in check.  The lanky righty has a bowling ball sinker and the groundball rate to back it up.  The Indians were unable to lock him up long-term, trading him to the Cardinals on July 30th.  Masterson struggled with both teams, but knee inflammation was a mitigating factor.  The Cubs are a good fit given the Theo Epstein connection and Masterson’s Midwest upbringing, but it’s likely a dozen teams will show interest in the pitcher.  There’s a good chance he gets multiyear offers, but he may prefer one year to rebuild value.

19.  Aramis Ramirez – Brewers.  Ramirez, 36, still might be a top ten hitter as a third baseman, and he was basically Sandoval’s equal with the bat this year in the regular season.  Ramirez has spent his entire career in the NL Central, most recently with the Brewers.  They’ve picked up their side of his $14MM mutual option, and we believe Ramirez will turn down his side to keep his options open and try for a two-year deal.  If a compromise can’t be reached with the Brewers, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Astros, Angels, and Giants could be fits.  UPDATE: Ramirez has accepted his side of the mutual option, preferring to play on a one-year deal.

20.  Colby Rasmus – White Sox.  Rasmus, a young free agent at age 28, hits the market coming off a disappointing season in which he lost his starting role with the Blue Jays.  He has a pair of star-caliber seasons on his resume in 2010 and 2013, but he struggled mightily in 2011, ’12, and ’14.  He offers big power and has little free agent competition as a center fielder, but he also strikes out a lot and has struggled to hit left-handed pitching.  His market will open up considerably if he is willing to play a corner outfield position.  He should receive multiyear offers but may prefer one year.  The White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Giants could be possibilities.

21.  Jed Lowrie – Blue Jays.  Lowrie, 31 in April, might be the best middle infielder on the free agent market now that J.J. Hardy has signed an extension with the Orioles.  The power Lowrie showed from 2012-13 is rare among shortstops, but his production dropped off this year, his second with Oakland.  Lowrie’s negative defensive runs saved figures from each of the last three seasons back up his reputation as a shaky defender, and his market would widen if he’s open to second base.  Assuming the A’s can’t afford a possible three-year deal to bring him back, the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Reds, and Dodgers could be suitors.

22.  Jason Hammel – Twins.  Hammel is a quality mid-tier starting pitcher.  The 32-year-old posted a 3.47 ERA for the Cubs and A’s this year with an 8.1 K/9 rate.  He was useful in 2012 as well, but has had some off years and has never reached 178 innings in a season.  He still should be able to find a two or three-year deal.  Aside from the Twins, the Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Pirates, and Giants could make sense.

23.  Asdrubal Cabrera – Mets.  Cabrera is neck-and-neck with Lowrie for the top free agent shortstop position.  He’s got consistent home run power and good durability.  Like Lowrie, his defense has been questioned and an openness to second base would help.  Any of the clubs listed for Lowrie could be fits for Cabrera, as we at MLBTR pegged them for very similar contracts.  It could come down to a matter of preference between the two middle infielders for those teams.

24.  Nick Markakis – Orioles.  The Orioles chose a $2MM buyout over Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option, so it wasn’t surprising when they also declined to make a qualifying offer.  Markakis has settled in as a durable right fielder with a solid OBP.  Without a qualifying offer, that might be enough for a four-year deal.  The Orioles are the only team he’s ever known, but if they are unable to re-sign him, the Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Mets, Reds, and Giants could be fits.

25.  Adam LaRoche – Padres.  LaRoche, 35 this month, posted a career-best .362 on-base percentage in 2014.  He also popped a healthy 26 home runs, third among free agents.  One negative is that he has been ineffective against left-handed pitching.  The Nationals recently chose a $2MM buyout over LaRoche’s $15MM mutual option, and chose not to make a qualifying offer.  Without that encumbrance, LaRoche can try for a three-year deal but may still settle for two.  The Brewers are off the board for LaRoche after acquiring Adam Lind, but the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins may look to upgrade at first base.  The Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, and Angels could make sense in some scenarios.

26.  Jake Peavy – Cubs.  Peavy enters free agency for the first time in his career, and the 2007 Cy Young winner is now a mid-rotation starter.  He posted a 3.73 ERA for the Red Sox and Giants this year.  His stock improved given a 2.17 ERA in San Francisco, even if he won’t be able to repeat the 3.2% home run per flyball rate he experienced there.  His agent may seek a three-year deal, but two seems more likely.  Peavy seems likely to weigh factors other than money heavily in his decision.  He likes the idea of a free agent package deal with buddy Jon Lester, though the Cubs aren’t likely to sign all three pitchers for which they’re listed here.  There should be plenty of suitors for Peavy, but his personal preference will play a big role.

27.  Hiroki Kuroda – Retirement.  Kuroda, 40 in February, has been a lock for about 200 innings and a sub-4.00 ERA for the past five seasons.  He’s always had great control, and brought his walk rate down to 1.6 per nine this year for the Yankees.  Currently, it’s unclear whether Kuroda will pitch in 2015.  If he does, his options figure to be limited by choice, but he’s at least not burdened by a qualifying offer.  A return to the Dodgers, his first MLB team, is worth considering, especially because his family still lives in the area.  On that note, the Angels shouldn’t be ruled out either.

28.  Mike Morse – Rangers.  Morse is a productive right-handed bat.  He’s mostly played the outfield corners and first base in his career, but more time at designated hitter might help keep him healthy and limit runs lost due to subpar defense.  The Rangers, Indians, Royals, Athletics, and Padres could be fits on a likely two-year deal.

29.  Michael Cuddyer – Mariners.  Cuddyer is similar to Morse on this market: a corner outfielder/first base bat who should probably focus on the American League for a chance to act as a designated hitter semi-regularly.  Cuddyer, 36 in March, averaged 93 games per season on his three-year Rockies contract due to injuries but hit exceptionally well there, including solid road numbers in 2013-14.  The Mariners figure to be in on him, and the Orioles, Rangers, and Mets are other possibilities.  UPDATE: Cuddyer received a surprising qualifying offer from the Rockies, and stands a good chance of accepting it.

30.  Alex Rios – Giants.  If Morse and Cuddyer are best-served as bat-only players, the outfield market this year is pretty thin.  Rios could be a cheaper alternative to Markakis.  He’ll be 34 in February and is coming off a replacement-level performance, owed in part to an injury-plagued August.  Rios isn’t much of a power or walk threat, but he hits for average, mashes lefties, and generally avoids the DL.  A one-year deal to rebuild value makes sense, and the Giants, Mets, Twins, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Phillies, and Reds could be fits.  Rios switched to the Boras Corporation for representation on the eve of his free agency.

31.  Edinson Volquez  – Braves.  As a 31-year-old coming off a 3.04 ERA for the Pirates, Volquez is in good shape for his first two or three-year deal.  His 6.5 K/9 this year was a career-low for any full season, but his 3.3 BB/9 was a career-best and he still gets groundballs and throws hard.  There’s upside here, and it could interest teams like the Braves, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, and Diamondbacks.

32.  Luke Gregerson – White Sox.  Gregerson has long been one of the game’s top setup men, and he posted a career-best 2.12 ERA this year.  Over his six years in the Majors, he leads MLB in holds.  Gregerson limits free passes, keeps the ball on the ground, and stays healthy.  He gets it done without throwing hard, but it should be noted that he’s spent his career in pitchers’ parks and hasn’t been as good on the road.  Gregerson seems a lock for a healthy three-year deal, and the White Sox, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, and Dodgers figure to be among the teams seeking relief help.

33.  Torii Hunter – Rangers.  Hunter, 39, continued to show consistent right-handed power this year with 17 home runs.  However, his poor defense in right field negated much of his value, so remaining in the American League seems wise.  He’s leaning toward playing in 2015 and hopes to remain with the Tigers.  Otherwise, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Mariners, and Rangers could take a look at him.

34.  A.J. Burnett – Royals.  Burnett turned down a $12.75MM player option with the Phillies, preferring to pitch for a contender in 2015 even if it means taking less money.  Burnett, who will turn 38 in January, had an off year with the Phillies as his walk rate jumped up to 4.0 per nine.  With teams like the Orioles, Nationals, and Mets not seeking starting pitching and the Yankees probably not seeking a reunion, Burnett may have to relax his oft-cited preference to play near his Maryland home if the Red Sox and Pirates aren’t interested.

35.  Sergio Romo – Dodgers.  Romo, 32 in March, was removed from the Giants’ closing role in late June.  As a flyball pitcher, he can be prone to the home run, but even this year his strikeout and walk rates suggested the skills for the sub-3.00 ERAs he strung together from 2010-13.  He should find a strong three-year deal somewhere, especially if he’s open-minded about pitching the eighth or ninth inning.  If the Giants don’t re-sign Romo, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Cubs, Rockies, and Dodgers could be in the mix.

36.  Francisco Rodriguez – Blue Jays.  K-Rod returned to the ninth inning with a 44-save season with the Brewers.  Saves don’t pay like they used to, and Rodriguez did allow 14 home runs in 68 innings.  Still, a solid two-year deal should be attainable with any of the teams listed above for Romo, or the Brewers if he takes a discount.

37.  Rafael Soriano – Astros.  Soriano has cashed in on saves with multiple previous contracts.  With the Nationals this year, he saved 32 games but lost his closer job in early September.  He’s still a useful member of a bullpen, capable of ERAs in the low 3.00s despite extreme flyball tendencies.

38.  Ryan Vogelsong – Giants.  Vogelsong, 37, didn’t appear in the Majors from 2007-10, but has re-established himself as a solid #4 starter.  The Giants could use the innings he provides, but the other teams listed for Hammel and Volquez would also make sense.

39.  Aaron Harang – Giants.  Released by the Indians in March, Harang went on to toss 204 1/3 innings of 3.57 ball for the Braves.  The durable 36-year-old veteran would make a solid addition to the back end of someone’s rotation on a two-year deal.  Remaining in the NL and in a pitcher-friendly park give him the best shot at repeating his 2014 numbers, but he should garner interest from AL clubs as well.

40.  Nori Aoki – Reds.  A three-time Nippon Professional Baseball batting champion, the Brewers won the rights to negotiate with Aoki three years ago.  He was traded to the Royals last December.  Aoki, 33 in January, has a .353 career on-base percentage in MLB.  A left-handed hitter, Aoki has actually hit southpaws better than righties for the past two seasons.  He’s known for some circuitous routes in right field, but his defensive numbers are acceptable.  Aoki seems in line for a multiyear deal, and could fit with the Reds, White Sox, Twins, Mets, and Giants.  The Royals are also believed to be interested in retaining him.

41.  Billy Butler – Mariners.  Butler is limited to American League teams where he can spend most of his time at DH.  A right-handed bat, he turns 29 in April.  He’s slugged just .396 over the past two seasons, and this year his walk rate dropped to a career-worst 6.8%.  The Royals have declined his club option, and he may need to find a new home.  The Mariners, Orioles, Indians, A’s, and Rangers are potential matches, and the Mariners have been connected to him multiple times in recent offseasons.

42.  Stephen Drew – Athletics.  Drew was saddled by a qualifying offer last winter and did not find the offers to his liking.  The shortstop sat out until May 20th, removing the draft pick cost from the equation and signing for a pro-rated version of the $14.1MM qualifying offer with Boston.  He was flipped to the Yankees at the trade deadline in a rare deal between the AL East rivals.  Perhaps it was the long layoff, but Drew was brutal with the bat in 2014.  Still, there’s no question he can play a capable shortstop, and that’s not as certain for Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera.  Drew figures to sign his third consecutive one-year free agent deal.  The A’s, Yankees, Astros, Mets, Reds, Padres, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Nationals are all possibly seeking help in the middle infield.

43.  Emilio Bonifacio – Braves.  Bonifacio offers speed, defense, versatility, and relative youth, although he doesn’t hit much.  He’s the free agent leader for wins above replacement at both second base and center field, though that’s more a function of the weak market at those positions.  As a super-utility guy on a two-year deal, he could provide depth for a lot of teams.

44.  Casey Janssen – Dodgers.  Janssen, 33, posted a 2.46 ERA from 2011-13 but posted a 5.65 mark in the final three months of 2014.  He suffered a case of violent food poisoning over the All-Star break and wasn’t the same afterward.  Given his track record, he could be a bargain buy for the many teams seeking late-inning relief.

45.  Pat Neshek – Astros.  Neshek, a 34-year-old sidearmer, signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals in February and went on to make the All-Star team.  He posted a stellar 1.87 ERA in 67 1/3 innings overall, appears in line for a two-year deal and could fit in the bullpen of contending clubs and non-contenders alike.

46.  Brandon Morrow – Dodgers.  Morrow, 30, has been limited to 212 1/3 innings over the last three seasons due to an oblique strain, an entrapped radial nerve in his forearm, and a torn tendon sheath in a finger on his throwing hand.  He still averages 94 miles per hour on his fastball, and he wants to continue as a starting pitcher rather than a reliever.  The fifth overall draft pick in 2006, Morrow should battle Brett Anderson as this winter’s most attractive high-risk, high-reward starting pitcher.  Those types generally draw a long list of bargain-seekers, though teams in pitcher-friendly environments should be more appealing to the player.

47.  Jason Grilli – Yankees.  Grilli, 38 in November, re-emerged as an effective reliever with the Pirates in 2011.  The Bucs sent him to the Angels in a change of scenery swap for Ernesto Frieri in late June this year.  Grilli did solid work for the Halos and should be a popular late-inning option.

48.  Brett Anderson – Twins.  Anderson, just 27 in February, is a tantalizing free agent.  He set a career-high with 175 1/3 innings as a rookie in 2009 with the A’s, and has seen injuries pile up since.  He tallied only 123 frames for all of 2012-14 due to Tommy John surgery, a broken foot, and surgeries his back and a broken finger this year.  It would make sense for him to focus on a pitcher-friendly ballpark as he looks to re-establish himself, and Minnesota was among the teams to show interest before he was traded to the Rockies last year.

49.  Josh Johnson – Padres.  Johnson, 31 in January, was the prime high-risk, high-reward starting pitcher from last offseason.  He had Tommy John surgery in late April, however, so 2015 will be an abbreviated campaign at best.  Johnson’s front-rotation abilities are getting further in the rearview mirror, but his potential if healthy remains interesting.  The Padres turned down a $4MM club option, but Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick said, “His first choice is to go back to San Diego.”

50.  Jung-ho Kang – Orioles.  After hitting 38 home runs in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2014, Kang could be the first position player to make the leap from KBO to MLB.  MLBTR spoke to an international scouting director who finds Kang fringy at shortstop, suggesting he’s better suited for second or third base.  He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop.  That still has value.

We’re listing Japanese pitcher Chihiro Kaneko as an honorable mention at this point, as it’s not certain he’ll be posted.  We’re also keeping Cuban defectors Hector Olivera and Jose Fernandez in this section because of the uncertain timeline of their potential free agency.

Other honorable mentions: Kendrys Morales, Joba Chamberlain, Rickie Weeks, Chris Capuano, Gavin Floyd, Roberto Hernandez, Chris Young, Neal Cotts, Burke Badenhop, Zach Duke, Chad Billingsley, Luke Hochevar, Geovany Soto, A.J. Pierzynski, Tsuyoshi Wada

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2015 MLB Free Agents

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Introducing The Trade Rumors App

By Tim Dierkes | October 27, 2014 at 2:11pm CDT

After many months of hard work, we’re very excited to bring you the new Trade Rumors app for iOS and Android devices!

The Trade Rumors app brings together content from our three sites: MLB Trade Rumors, Hoops Rumors, and Pro Football Rumors.  You can easily scroll left to right and click on the image of the article you want to read.  You can also filter your feeds to show only the top stories within that category, if you prefer.

Once you’re within a feed, you can swipe to read older or newer articles without going back to the home screen.  Each article can be easily shared via Twitter, Facebook, email, or text message.

The Trade Rumors app is highly customizable.  You can add feeds for any of the 92 MLB, NBA, and NFL teams, as well as for any of the thousands of players in our archives, by using the settings icon up top for iOS and the pencil icon up top for Android.  You can create a multi-sport experience tailored to your specific interests, or you can limit your app entirely to one sport by removing the others.

Best of all?  The Trade Rumors app is free!  Download it for iOS or Android and leave a review!

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Free Agent Profile: Alex Rios

By Tim Dierkes | October 24, 2014 at 3:08pm CDT

Alex Rios’ up-and-down career trend continued in 2014, with an ill-timed replacement-level performance.  The Rangers declined the outfielder’s club option, putting the 11-year veteran on the free agent market for the first time in his career.

Strengths/Pros

Rios has had a productive career.  A first-round pick of the Blue Jays out of Puerto Rico in 1999, Rios finished fifth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in ’04.  A few seasons later he nabbed back-to-back All-Star appearances, and went on to post seasons worth three or more wins above replacement in 2010, ’12, and ’13.  When he’s at his best, Rios has shown 20 home run power as a right-handed hitter and the ability to hit .280 or better.

Alex RiosThere were positives in his 2014 season.  Rios hit .304/.335/.430 through July, which was a little better than his successful 2013 campaign.  For all of 2014 Rios hit .325/.353/.545 against southpaws.  Over the 2012-14 seasons, Rios’ .530 slugging percentage against lefties ranks 22nd in baseball.

Rios is also an asset on the basepaths.  He’s posted a positive baserunning runs above average figure in every season of his career, and ranks 18th in baseball from 2012-14 with 13.9 BsR.  He’s shown the ability to steal bases at a high success rate as recently as 2013, when he swiped 42 bags in 49 tries.

Though he missed most of the final month of the 2014 season, Rios has a track record of durability.  From 2007-13, Rios averaged 153 games per season, never dropping below 145.  This is a clear advantage over a few other corner outfield types he’ll be competing with in free agency, Mike Morse and Michael Cuddyer.  Rios didn’t technically go on the disabled list this year; he hasn’t done so since 2006.

Weaknesses/Cons

Rios’ season was seemingly spoiled by a pair of injuries.  He twisted his ankle on July 19th, and believes he developed a thumb injury as a result of compensating for the ankle.  With the bruised thumb at risk for infection, he was officially shut down on September 21st.  Explained agent Paul Kinzer to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, “His numbers were down because of the injuries. He stayed in the lineup and tried to do all he could because of what was happening with the team.”

There are concerns independent of Rios’ 2014 injuries.  Just looking at the period prior to his ankle injury, Rios hit only three home runs in 297 plate appearances.  With 15 doubles and eight triples in that time he still managed to slug .462, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s more of a 10-15 home run guy moving forward.

There’s also the issue of Rios’ defense.  He was below average in UZR/150 this year, and has been below average in defensive runs saved in each of the last two campaigns.  A right fielder by trade, Rios’ ceiling might now be slightly above-average in the outfield, as opposed to the defensive weapon he once was.

Rios’ terrible performance in August this year still counts, and the result was a season with negative offensive value.  Throw in unimpressive defense and it was a replacement level campaign.  It’s not the first time — Rios was worth less than one win above replacement in each of the ’05, ’09, and ’11 seasons as well.  Rios’ batting average on balls in play seems to lack stability, with low marks in ’09 and ’11.

Rios is not much for the free pass, drawing walks at a 5.9% clip in his career and 4.4% this year.  Among those with at least 500 plate appearances this year, only ten players drew walks at a lower rate than Rios.

Personal

Rios was born in Coffee, Alabama but grew up and resides with his wife and two children in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico.  What were Rios’ parents doing in Coffee, Alabama, anyway?  “They must have been passing through,” the outfielder told Mike Ulmer of the Toronto Sun a decade ago.

As Rios told Ulmer, as a child growing up in Puerto Rico, he wanted to quit baseball at age 13 to spend more time with his friends.  His father, Israel, pushed him to continue playing.

Rios participated in the World Baseball Classic for Puerto Rico in ’06, ’09, and ’13.  He told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times last year, “When you represent your country and the name of your country is across your chest, it really means a lot.”

Market

With Adam Dunn expected to retire, Rios is now the active leader for most games played with no postseason experience.  Having earned almost $75MM in his career, it’s possible Rios will prioritize finding a contending club, not that contenders are always easy to predict.

Rios’ competition in the market for corner outfielders this winter includes Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Mike Morse, Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, and Nori Aoki.  For a team that misses out on Cabrera or can’t fit him into their budget, Rios should be a palatable alternative.  The Orioles, Reds, Tigers, Astros, Royals, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, and Giants seem like potential fits.

Expected Contract

Rios could choose the security of a two-year deal this winter, as Justin Morneau and Garrett Jones did last offseason.  However, Rios already has financial security, and seems more likely to bet on himself and take a one-year deal as Corey Hart, Chris Young, and Mike Morse did last year.  I’m pegging Rios for one year and $8.5MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles Newsstand Texas Rangers Alex Rios

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Free Agent Profile: Andrew Miller

By Tim Dierkes | October 20, 2014 at 2:57pm CDT

Andrew Miller was drafted sixth overall in 2006, one spot ahead of Clayton Kershaw.  He didn’t find success as a starting pitcher, but developed into a shutdown reliever in recent years.  Miller’s stock rose dramatically in 2014, to the point where he’s the second-best free agent reliever this winter.  The 29-year-old 6’7″ lefty could score a surprisingly large multiyear deal.

Strengths/Pros

Armed with a 94-97 mile per hour four-seam fastball and one of the game’s nastiest sliders, Miller strikes out batters in droves.  Among relievers with at least 50 innings pitched, Miller’s 14.87 K/9 ranked second in baseball, behind only Aroldis Chapman.  Using linear weights, Miller had the most valuable slider in baseball in 2014.  And he’s no lefty specialist, either, with righties also unable to touch him.

Andrew Miller

Miller posted a sparkling 2.02 ERA this year, which ranked 22nd among MLB relievers and second among free agent relievers.  Miller ranked sixth among MLB relievers with 2.3 wins above replacement, and second with a 1.21 SIERA.  In short, Miller’s skills more than back up his performance.

Miller showed the best control of his career this year, walking only 2.5 batters per nine innings.  He was traded to the Orioles at the July deadline and was especially stingy with the free pass in the ensuing 20 innings, walking only 1.8 per nine.

Miller allowed less than one baserunner per inning this year, in part because he was extremely difficult to hit.  Only six MLB relievers allowed fewer than Miller’s 4.76 hits per nine innings.  Since 2012, Miller has allowed 5.8 hits per nine.  We’re building a near-perfect reliever at this point, but Miller also allowed only three home runs in his 62 1/3 innings this year.

Miller didn’t have an ERA above 2.70 in any month, but he was particularly good in the season’s final three months with a 1.48 mark.  For good measure, he tacked on another 7 1/3 scoreless frames in five postseason appearances, serving as a major weapon for Orioles manager Buck Showalter.

Not that a qualifying offer would have been likely, but Miller became ineligible for one upon his midseason trade.  That’s an advantage Miller has over the top available free agent reliever, David Robertson.  He’s also younger than most of his peers in the marketplace, as Miller does not turn 30 until May.

Weaknesses/Cons

Control was a weakness for Miller prior to 2014, as he walked 5.2 batters per nine innings in 136 innings from 2011-13.  70 innings of limiting free passes isn’t enough of a sample to say he has completely eliminated the problem.  Miller posted a 5.0 BB/9 as recently as last year.

2013 was an odd year for Miller in general.  He posted a 2.64 ERA in 30 2/3 innings, but lefties hit .281 off him and he walked 16% of the right-handed batters he faced.  That season ended for Miller on July 6th, when he suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot.  It was a torn ligament between bones in the middle of the foot, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Miller previously hit the 15-day DL in 2007 (hamstring strain), ’08 (knee inflammation), ’09 (oblique strain), and ’12 (hamstring strain).  One point in his favor is that none of these injuries involved his left arm.  Miller fell an out shy of 70 innings this year including the playoffs, but only tallied 53 1/3 frames in 2012 and 30 2/3 last year.  It may not be predictive, but in Miller’s three full seasons as a reliever, this is the only year in which he didn’t miss 26 games or more.

Personal

Miller was born in Gainesville, Florida and attended high school there.  He attended UNC for college and was drafted sixth overall in ’06.  Miller currently resides in Newberry, Florida with his wife and son.  He’s known as a cerebral person, and is one of the game’s most active players union representatives.

Market

Miller has shown he can retire left and right-handed hitters, and has the skills to handle the ninth inning if his team prefers.  Any team would love to have him, and he could anchor a bullpen for the White Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs, to name a few.  The Tigers drafted Miller in ’06 and traded him to the Marlins the following year as a major component of the Miguel Cabrera deal.  The Tigers almost brought him back via trade this July, so they should have interest in free agency.  The Brewers, Braves, Pirates, Nationals, and Dodgers were also among those in on him at the trade deadline.  A reunion with Boston also can’t be ruled out, and the Yankees figure to check in.  And certainly the Orioles would like to have Miller back, if they can fit him into their budget while also trying to re-sign Nelson Cruz and others.

Expected Contract

The Red Sox acquired Miller from the Marlins in November 2010, but non-tendered him a few weeks later.  He received strong interest on the free agent market for a few weeks and ultimately turned down three different big league offers to sign a minor league deal to remain with Boston.

Four years later, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Miller is “a strong union man who believes in the right of a player to seek the best contract for himself when he reaches free agency,” adding that Miller will go to the highest bidder this winter.  Interest in Miller will be widespread, as it was at the trade deadline.  That the Red Sox were able to extract highly-regarded pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez in a trade for several months of Miller’s services speaks to the kind of bidding war that occurred.

Brandon League money would be a solid deal for Miller; League received $22.5MM over three years at the end of the 2012 season.  Given just one save on his resume, Miller would be the first non-closing reliever to reach the $20MM mark (though I’ve predicted just that for Luke Gregerson).  Still, with MLBTR’s Steve Adams projecting $52MM over four years for Robertson with a qualifying offer, the League contract feels inadequate for a reliever as coveted as Miller.

We haven’t seen a four-year deal for a non-closing reliever since Scott Linebrink signed with the White Sox seven years ago.  With Miller, I think it’s time.  I’m predicting a four-year, $32MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Andrew Miller

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Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana

By Tim Dierkes | October 16, 2014 at 7:00pm CDT

Ervin Santana’s 2013-14 offseason did not go as planned following a strong 2013 campaign.  After spending all winter searching for a strong multiyear deal, he settled for a one-year deal with the Braves in March matching the qualifying offer amount of $14.1MM.  Turning down a qualifying offer from the Royals was considered a major factor in Santana’s disappointing market, as teams did not want to pay full price while surrendering a draft pick.  Now, after another solid season, Santana must navigate the free agent market again, potentially with another qualifying offer.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Atlanta BravesStrengths/Pros

Santana missed over a month in 2009 with a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow, but his agents presented teams with a statement from Dr. James Andrews last offseason in which the surgeon noted, “He doesn’t need any further treatment for his right elbow partial UCL tear, as on (the) MRI today it appears that it has completely healed.”

Santana had another healthy season despite signing late, and it might be enough to put the elbow concern to rest.  In fact, he’s been quite durable, making at least 30 starts in each of the past five seasons and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of those campaigns.  Though his first big league start didn’t come until April 9th, Santana still ranked 11th among free agent starters with 196 innings.  Santana’s average of 6.32 innings per start ranked fifth among free agents.

Santana struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings in 2014, his best mark since 2008. That ranks fourth among free agent starters.   Some of that can be attributed to moving to the National League and striking out pitchers, though Santana also increased his strikeout rate against non-pitchers.  And despite a reputation as being fairly homer-prone, Santana allowed only 0.73 HR/9, fifth among free agent starters.

Santana’s 3.63 SIERA bettered his 3.95 ERA, and the skill-based estimate might be a better way to project what he’ll do next year.  Only five free agent starters topped Santana’s 2.8 wins above replacement.  After the Big Three of Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields, there’s a case for Santana as the top pitcher in the second tier.

Weaknesses/Cons

One of the biggest cons for Santana is a potential draft pick cost, if he receives and turns down a $15.3MM qualifying offer from the Braves.  More on that later.

Santana is relatively hittable, having allowed 8.9 hits per nine innings this year.  Perhaps that was a fluke, given a .319 batting average on balls in play.  Still, left-handed hitters batted .283 against Santana this year, and they also hit him hard in 2012.

As Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello pointed out this month, no right-handed starter has thrown sliders more often than Santana over the past two years (nearly 36% of the time).  The pitch is generally considered to be hard on a pitcher’s elbow, even if Santana has proven himself to be durable.  Any team entertaining signing Santana to a multiyear deal will be more concerned with what will happen moving forward.

While Santana did a nice job limiting the longball this year, his 8.8% home run per flyball rate wasn’t in line with his career norm and his 42.7% groundball rate wasn’t anything special.  If his HR/FB returns to normal, he’ll return to being the pitcher who allowed 1.26 home runs per nine innings from 2010-13.

Personal

Santana looked up to Pedro Martinez as a boy growing up in San Cristobal in the Dominican Republic, and was signed by the Angels at age 17.  He’s now married with two children.  Jesse Sanchez’s MLB.com article and video from September 2013 gives great insight into his family life.  Santana is described by his wife as a quiet yet silly guy who enjoys playing with his children.

Market

In my estimation, the second tier of free agent starting pitching this winter includes Santana, Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Justin Masterson, Jake Peavy, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jason Hammel.  Of those eight, only Santana, Liriano, and Kuroda are even eligible to receive qualifying offers.  Kuroda could retire, and even if he doesn’t he would be extremely picky where he plays.

After speaking to rival executives last month, ESPN’s Buster Olney predicted Santana would receive a qualifying offer from the Braves, while Liriano would not receive one from the Pirates.  So there’s a very real scenario where Santana is the only second-tier pitcher to receive a qualifying offer.  Even if some teams feel he’s the best pitcher in this tier, they could certainly turn to someone they rank lower who will not require draft pick forfeiture.

The qualifying offer situation muddies Santana’s free agency again, making it difficult to predict which teams will be involved.  If he receives and turns down a QO, he’ll be a better fit for teams with protected first rounders like the Cubs, White Sox, Phillies, Red Sox, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Rangers, and Diamondbacks.  The draft pick forfeiture would further be minimized if one of those teams first signs another player who turned down a QO, meaning Santana would only require forfeiture of a third-round pick.  The Twins pursued Santana last winter and still need starting pitching.  I don’t think a QO will kill Santana’s market, and certainly teams without protected first rounders will  have interest.  The Marlins, Yankees, Tigers, and Giants could get involved.  The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Mariners were in on Santana last winter, but their needs may have changed.

Santana could also return to the Braves in 2015, as the team faces uncertainty in the rotation after Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Mike Minor.

Expected Contract

The Braves’ best chance of retaining Santana might be if he accepts a qualifying offer, which I find unlikely.  Santana would not risk much by turning down a QO — last winter showed that a one-year deal near the qualifying offer value will probably be out there all winter and into Spring Training.

Obviously Santana does not want a repeat of that scenario, so it will be important for agent Jay Alou to set proper expectations.  One year ago, MLBTR’s Steve Adams predicted a five-year, $75MM deal for Santana, and I agreed.  Edwin Jackson’s four-year, $52MM seemed like the floor.  In November of 2013, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported Santana’s asking price was in excess of $100MM over five years, with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports pegging the price at $112MM over five.  A week later, agents Bean Stringfellow and Joe White (who no longer represent Santana) showed Rosenthal the binder they created to showcase their client, which they felt made the $100MM case partially through an ill-conceived comparison to Zack Greinke.  Stringfellow later denied asking for five years and $112MM, but it seems likely that he, White, and Alou started off too high for Santana, and once expectations were adjusted into the Edwin Jackson range, it was too late.  Santana’s one-year deal was not owed entirely to the qualifying offer.

Now only Alou remains, and he should at least be able to score the now-standard four-year, $50MM deal this time.  As I think Santana will be plenty appealing even with another qualifying offer, I’m predicting a four-year, $56MM deal this time around.  Combined with the 2014 one-year deal, Alou would be able to say he ultimately got Santana five years and $70MM, not far off Steve Adams’ original estimate from last offseason.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles Atlanta Braves Newsstand Ervin Santana

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2014-15 MLB Free Agent Tracker

By Tim Dierkes | October 13, 2014 at 11:59am CDT

Our 2014-15 MLB Free Agent Tracker is here!  The tracker lists all free agents who had at least 20 Major League innings or 50 plate appearances in 2014.  You can currently filter by position and handedness.  Once the information is available, you can filter by qualifying offer status, signing team, and contract terms.

The tracker can always be found under the Tools menu up top, or under MLBTR Features on the sidebar.  We also have all the players in list form, which can be found here.

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2015 MLB Free Agents

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Free Agent Profile: Luke Gregerson

By Tim Dierkes | October 9, 2014 at 1:48pm CDT

Luke Gregerson has been one of baseball’s top setup men since his 2009 rookie season, and he posted a career-best 2.12 ERA this year.  Interest will be strong on the 30-year-old, who will be seeking the first multiyear deal of his career.

Strengths/Pros

Among American League relievers with at least 60 innings, Gregerson’s 2.12 ERA this year ranked 12th.  Among free agents, only Pat Neshek and Andrew Miller did better.  In Gregerson’s six big league seasons, his highest ERA was 3.24 in his rookie campaign.  He’s posted an ERA of 2.75 or lower in each of the past four seasons.  From 2009-14 among relievers with at least 350 innings, Gregerson’s 2.75 ERA ranks fourth in baseball.  He’s been a model of consistent excellence in the late innings, using his slider often to stymie hitters even if they know it’s coming.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland AthleticsIn San Diego, Gregerson paired up with closers Heath Bell and Huston Street for five years, and he’s never received more than 13 save opportunities in a season.  Instead, he racks up holds like no other.  According to MLB.com, a hold is given if “a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead.”  Gregerson led all of baseball from 2009-14 with 154 holds.

Gregerson walked only 5.3% of the batters he faced this year, a career best.  Only 13 relievers showed better control this year, and only Neshek and Koji Uehara are free agents.  Gregerson’s 52.2% groundball rate was also a career-best, and the figure ranked 11th in the AL.  Gregerson has been consistently tough to hit throughout his career, allowing fewer than 7.5 hits per nine innings in every season except 2011.  His career batting average on balls in play of .267 is a big part of his success (more on that later).

Gregerson will not turn 31 until May next year.  Only a handful of Gregerson’s fellow relievers on the free agent market are that young, and none of them have a track record close to his.  One benefit Gregerson should have over free agent reliever David Robertson: he’s not going to receive a qualifying offer.

Gregerson comes with a remarkably clean bill of health, having only hit the DL twice in his career.  He missed 25 games in 2009 for shoulder inflammation and another 25 in 2011 for an oblique strain.  His 419 1/3 relief innings from 2009-14 rank second in baseball, behind only Tyler Clippard.

Weaknesses/Cons

Drafted in the 28th round in 2006 by the Cardinals, velocity has never been Gregerson’s calling card.  He broke in throwing around 91 miles per hour, and now he’s down to 88.4.  Only three relievers threw slower in 2014, and two of them are sidearmers.

Gregerson struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings in 2014, his worst mark aside from his 2011 season, which was marred by an oblique strain.  The average AL reliever this year whiffed 8.3 per nine.  It should also be noted that Gregerson’s success has come in both leagues, but always in pitcher-friendly home parks.  For his career, he has a 2.02 ERA at home and a 3.60 mark on the road.  The key differences are a much higher home run per flyball rate and batting average on balls in play on the road.

Gregerson threw his famed slider about 46% of the time in 2014, a rate topped by only three relievers.  He was the game’s most slider-dependent regular reliever in 2012-13, throwing it 63% of the time.  It’s possible heavy slider usage leads to increased injury risk.  However, Gregerson has a strong track record of health, and noted to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in March that he turns his wrist less than most pitchers and his elbow has never bothered him.

Personal

Born in Park Ridge, Illinois, Gregerson resides in Chicago in the offseason.  He attended St. Xavier University in Chicago and grew up rooting for the Cubs and White Sox, according to a 2009 interview.  For a look at how the 28th round pick found his way to the Majors, check out Jeff Passan’s article for Yahoo from 2010.

Gregerson is a board member of Struggling Youth Equals Successful Adults, which aids foster kids in transitioning to adulthood.  In September 2012, Gregerson was the Padres’ nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award for all his volunteer efforts.

Market

As a Chicago guy, Gregerson might welcome a chance to pitch for the White Sox if they make a competitive offer.  Sox GM Rick Hahn made it clear in September that he aims to “acquire multiple options” for his pen this winter.  Other speculative suitors: the Tigers, Dodgers, Astros, Rockies, Rangers, Nationals, Yankees, and Red Sox.  It is certainly possible that Gregerson could be signed to take on a closer role.

Aside from Gregerson, the best names on the free agent relief market are David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Jason Grilli, Sergio Romo, Francisco Rodriguez, Koji Uehara, Casey Janssen, Rafael Soriano, and Pat Neshek.  That’s a lot of competition, and you don’t want to be the reliever left standing in January after the music has stopped.

Expected Contract

From last offseason, three contracts come to mind as comparables for Gregerson: Javier Lopez ($13MM), Joe Smith ($15.75MM), and Boone Logan ($16.5MM).  From the previous offseason, notable deals include Brandon League ($22.5MM), Jeremy Affeldt ($18MM), and Jonathan Broxton ($21MM).  All of those deals were for three years, and that is the expectation for Gregerson.  Five of the six were signed before December, so it would be wise for Gregerson’s agent Tom O’Connell to act early.

You’ll notice that the average annual values from last offseason were about 20% lower than the 2012-13 period, even if we exclude Lopez on account of being older and an extreme lefty specialist.  Some of that may be a function of Broxton and League having 111 and 60 career saves, respectively, but it could be a sign that teams backed off on reliever salaries.  Plus, League isn’t the best example, as that deal was viewed as questionable for the Dodgers before the ink had dried.  On the other hand, Gregerson’s consistent success led to him setting the arbitration market for his ilk, along with Robertson, so it’s possible a team could like him enough to set a new setup man precedent by giving an $8MM AAV or a fourth year.  The four-year deal for setup men seems to have died out with Scott Linebrink and Justin Speier six to seven years ago.

Ultimately, I think Gregerson will sign a three-year, $20MM deal.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles MLBTR Originals Newsstand Oakland Athletics Luke Gregerson

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