Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

Out Of Options Players: AL Central

By Tim Dierkes | March 17, 2015 at 1:41pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources. Today, we’ll take a look at the AL Central.

White Sox: Maikel Cleto, Conor Gillaspie, Javy Guerra, Dan Jennings, Hector Noesi

The White Sox claimed Cleto off waivers from the Royals in February 2014, removing him from their 40-man roster in May and re-adding him in August. He and Guerra are among those vying for a couple of spots in the team’s revamped bullpen, which features new additions David Robertson, Zach Duke, and Jennings. Opening the season with an eight-man pen is possible. In a Saturday post, Jim Margalus of South Side Sox ranked Cleto ahead of Guerra.

Indians: Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Nick Hagadone, Zach McAllister, Brandon Moss

Carrasco and Bauer have rotation spots locked down for the Indians. McAllister is competing with a pool of others for two open spots, with Gavin Floyd’s injury creating an opening. About a month ago, Indians manager Terry Francona implied McAllister will make the club, either as a starter or reliever. Also about a month ago, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian described Hagadone as a “virtual lock” for the Tribe’s pen.

Tigers: Jose Iglesias, Hernan Perez, Andrew Romine

Perez and Romine were thought to be in competition for one bench spot, writes James Schmehl of Mlive.com, but Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said recently the team could break camp with both on the roster. If healthy, Iglesias will be the everyday shortstop.

Royals: Louis Coleman, Jarrod Dyson, Erik Kratz

Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star broke down the Royals’ bullpen situation yesterday. Relievers Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Jason Frasor, and Chris Young are locked into a pen that could break camp with eight. At present, it seems likely they’ll be able to find a spot for Coleman.

As McCullough noted in an earlier article, Kratz is competing with Francisco Pena for the backup catcher job. He feels that the 34-year-old Kratz is a better fit for the gig than Pena, who is 25. Dyson will be the team’s fourth outfielder.

Twins: Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Jordan Schafer

Escobar seems assured a utility infield job on the team, but Nunez’s status is uncertain. A trade seems possible. Schafer’s all but certain to be Minnesota’s fourth outfielder.

Out Of Options Players: NL West

By Tim Dierkes | March 13, 2015 at 7:35am CDT

Diamondbacks: Randall Delgado

Delgado is competing with many pitchers for a spot in the Diamondbacks’ rotation, helping himself with a strong outing Wednesday. Earlier this month, Zach Buchanan of The Arizona Republic took a look at Delgado’s situation. At this point, I would guess Delgado will find his way onto the Opening Day pitching staff, barring a trade.

Rockies: Christian Friedrich, D.J. LeMahieu, Michael McKenry, Tyler Chatwood

Friedrich, the Rockies’ first-round pick in 2008, is now 27 years old. Back in February, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post suggested the lefty has a good shot at making the team’s bullpen. It is a fairly crowded pen, however, so the situation bears watching.

LeMahieu and McKenry have clear spots on the team, while Chatwood is on the 60-day DL due to July 2014 Tommy John surgery.

Dodgers: A.J. Ellis, Chris Hatcher, Juan Nicasio

Ellis will be in a job share with new catching addition Yasmani Grandal. Hatcher and Nicasio are assured spots in the Dodgers’ bullpen, despite lots of competition for the last few jobs.

Padres: Yonder Alonso, Tim Federowicz, Tyson Ross, Dale Thayer, Alex Torres

Everyone here is assured a spot on the team, though Federowicz will start the season on the DL due to knee surgery.

Giants: Erik Cordier, George Kontos, Jean Machi, Ehire Adrianza, Yusmeiro Petit, Gregor Blanco, Travis Ishikawa

The Giants’ “Core Four” of Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla is locked in for the bullpen. Petit and Ryan Vogelsong are also projected to be in the bullpen, as there’s currently no room in the rotation. That leaves one spot for Machi, Cordier, and Kontos. In addition to those three out-of-options arms, the Giants have the hard-throwing Hunter Strickland in the mix, but Strickland does have options remaining, which could hurt his chances of making the club. Right-hander Juan Gutierrez is in camp as a non-roster invitee as well, and he pitched 63 2/3 innings for San Francisco last year.

Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles assessed this situation earlier this month, noting that a trade and/or injury seems likely. Certainly, teams seeking bullpen depth should be calling the Giants.

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News broke down the Giants’ bench situation earlier this month, explaining that Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and a backup catcher will take three of the five spots. Adrianza and Ishikawa could take the last two, but Juan Perez and Matt Duffy are also in the mix.

Out Of Options Players: AL West

By Tim Dierkes | March 10, 2015 at 2:36pm CDT

Astros: Chris Carter, Alex Presley, Luis Valbuena, Sam Deduno

Presley is vying for the Astros’ fourth outfielder job, competing with Robbie Grossman. Grossman is off to a hot start in four games this spring, but he has options. That and a $1MM contract make Presley the favorite, unless the Astros trade him.

Deduno is competing with Asher Wojciechowski, Roberto Hernandez, and Dan Straily for the Astros’ fifth starter job. He was knocked around on Friday, but none of the others have distinguished themselves. Deduno’s lack of options should help him make the team in some capacity, writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Drellich also noted that Brett Oberholtzer’s lat strain is a factor.

Angels: Drew Butera, Johnny Giavotella, Cesar Ramos

Butera is expected to serve as the Angels’ backup catcher behind Chris Iannetta. Giavotella, acquired from the Royals in the offseason, is part of the Angels’ second base competition this spring. He’s battling with Josh Rutledge, Grant Green, and Taylor Featherston. According to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez last Friday, two or even three of these players will make the team.

Ramos’ spot in the team’s bullpen is secure.

Athletics: Fernando Abad, Jesse Chavez, Sam Fuld, Evan Scribner, Stephen Vogt

Chavez seems guaranteed a spot on the pitching staff, whether in the rotation or as the long man. Abad seems locked in as well. Scribner is in the mix for a bullpen spot, which will become a tighter squeeze if Chavez doesn’t make the rotation. Jeremy F. Koo of Athletics Nation had a strong A’s bullpen breakdown a week ago.

Mariners: Dustin Ackley, Erasmo Ramirez, Justin Ruggiano

Ackley will platoon in left field this year with Rickie Weeks, while Ruggiano is expected to pair up with Seth Smith in right field.

Ramirez is competing with Taijuan Walker, Roenis Elias, and Kevin Correia for the Mariners’ fifth starter job, and he’s not considered the favorite.

Rangers: None

Out Of Options Players: AL East

By Tim Dierkes | March 9, 2015 at 12:28pm CDT

Blue Jays: Scott Barnes, Brett Cecil, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Drabek, Liam Hendriks, Todd Redmond, Justin Smoak, Steve Tolleson, Danny Valencia

Cecil is in the mix for the Blue Jays’ closer job, but he’s battling shoulder inflammation and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready for the start of the season. That could have a trickle-down effect and make one more bullpen spot available. Last Thursday before Cecil’s injury surfaced, Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star took a look at the team’s bullpen, calling Redmond a near-lock. Drabek, one of the big prizes of the 2009 Roy Halladay trade, is on the bubble. Hendriks and Barnes also could have an uphill battle for one of the seven bullpen spots.

Slugger Edwin Encarnacion will be a regular at first base and DH, with Smoak battling non-roster invitees Daric Barton and Dayan Viciedo for playing time at those positions. Smoak appears likely to make the team. Complicating matters is catcher Dioner Navarro, who would join the team’s bench if he’s not traded. Valencia, who can play both corner infield positions, has a spot on the team. Tolleson might stick as well, given his ability to play second base and the outfield.

Orioles: Brad Brach, Zach Britton, David Lough, Brian Matusz, Jimmy Paredes, Travis Snider, Chris Tillman

In February, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun wrote that Brach is likely to make the Orioles. The team does have a crowded bullpen situation, however.

Lough may earn a spot on the team, though that would mean the Orioles might break camp with six players capable of playing the outfield (Lough, Snider, Delmon Young, Alejandro De Aza, Adam Jones and Steve Pearce). Young will probably spend time at DH, though, and Pearce can help there and at first base. If any of that outfield mix goes, if could be Lough, whose defensive skills and solid work against righties would have appeal to other clubs. He can be controlled through 2019 and isn’t arb eligible until next offseason.

The Orioles added Everth Cabrera to potentially play second base, perhaps pushing Jonathan Schoop into competition with Ryan Flaherty for a utility infield job (both can be optioned to the minors). That leaves Paredes on the bubble, as it’s hard to see the Orioles optioning both Schoop and Flaherty just to keep him.

Rays: Chris Archer, Jeff Beliveau, Brad Boxberger, Alex Colome, Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, Jake McGee, Rene Rivera, Brandon Guyer

McGee will open the season on the disabled list. Boxberger, Frieri, Jepsen, and Beliveau have spots in the bullpen. Colome is in the rotation mix, though he has yet to arrive at camp due to visa issues. If Drew Smyly has to open the season on DL, that would help Colome’s chances.

Rivera is the starting catcher, and Guyer seems to have a fourth outfielder role locked up. If that is indeed the case with Guyer, it could lead the team to shop David DeJesus at the end of Spring Training. The 35-year-old DeJesus is earning $5MM this season and has a $1MM buyout on a $5MM option for the 2016 campaign.

Red Sox: Anthony Varvaro, Daniel Nava

Varvaro seems likely to secure a spot in Boston’s bullpen. If all the Red Sox first basemen/outfielders are healthy at the beginning of the season, there might not be room for both Nava and Allen Craig. However, Rusney Castillo is currently battling an oblique strain. One would think that Nava, earning $1.85MM and controllable through 2017 via arbitration, would have some appeal to other clubs.

Yankees: Austin Romine, Esmil Rogers, Ivan Nova, David Carpenter

The Yankees seem to prefer John Ryan Murphy over Romine for their backup catcher job, which could set up Romine as a spring trade candidate. The former top prospect is still just 26, is not yet arb eligible and can be controlled through 2018.

Rogers is competing for the Yankees’ fifth starter job but could end up the team’s swing man, according to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.

Nova is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be ready around June. He’ll open the season on the 60-day disabled list, so there’s no worry of him losing his spot.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Shawn Camp Announces Retirement

By Tim Dierkes | March 9, 2015 at 11:38am CDT

Shawn Camp, who pitched 11 seasons in the Majors, announced his retirement today. Camp worked in the bullpens of the Royals, Rays, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Phillies, topping 70 innings in four different seasons. Camp pitched 541 career games in total, including an MLB-leading 80 for the Cubs in 2012.

“I would like to thank all the great organizations I had the privilege to play for during my career,” Camp said through a statement. “I also had the opportunity to play for some tremendous managers and coaches as well as play alongside some extraordinary teammates. I have been a part of professional baseball for the past 17 years and it’s in my blood. As such, I’ll be looking to pursue other opportunities within major league baseball in the future. Most importantly, as I transition to the next chapter, I will get to spend more time with my family who has supported me beyond belief over the past 17 years.”

Camp told me his ultimate goal is to be a pitching coach one day, but he’s open-minded to any opportunities that may come in. He also has interest in working with young players in the minor leagues.

Which Top 2016 Free Agents Will Negotiate In-Season?

By Tim Dierkes | February 25, 2015 at 12:00am CDT

Last week we published my 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings, an assessment of the earning power of players on track to reach free agency after the 2015 season. Sometimes contract year players cut off extension negotiations at the start of the season, while others are willing to negotiate at any time. Here’s the latest on where these top potential free agents stand.

1. Justin Upton. In a December appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden, Upton’s agent Larry Reynolds indicated that he and his client did not want to negotiate during the season, and actually didn’t want to negotiate during Spring Training either. So it looks like the Padres’ exclusive window to sign Upton to a new contract will only re-open after the season. Padres position players are due to report to Spring Training today.

Key quote: “If anything were to happen, we’d probably want to do that before he packs up to go to Spring Training.” – Larry Reynolds, December 2014

2. Jason Heyward. Heyward was asked in January at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up whether he would have a reason to stop talking contract once the season started, and he replied, “At this point, I don’t.” (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporting). According to Goold, the two sides had yet to discuss an extension at that point in January, though GM John Mozeliak did say he’d be interested in pursuing one. Goold explained, “The Cardinals prefer to bring a player in, wrap him in red and then do what’s possible to keep him.” As Goold notes, retaining Heyward would require the largest contract in franchise history, which is currently Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from January 2010.

Key quote: “For me, I hope I love it so much I won’t have to leave.” – Jason Heyward, January 2015

3. David Price. Interest is mutual in a deal between the Tigers and Price. In January, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported, the lefty said he’s open to anything, and GM Dave Dombrowski said, “We hope he stays a Tiger for a long time.” Last Sunday in Lakeland, Price explained, “I’d probably rather not talk about it all year long. But I don’t feel like closing any doors. It doesn’t have to be cut off. I just don’t want to talk about it every day.” (Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting). Price did say he wanted to avoid the situation Max Scherzer went through with the Tigers last spring, where the team released a statement on March 23rd about the pitcher rejecting their contract offer.

Key quote: “I would definitely welcome it. If it’s right for both of us, I’m sure we can make it happen.” – David Price, February 2015

4. Ian Desmond. Desmond’s agent Doug Rogalski and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn’t have any significant extension talks during the offseason, reported MLB.com’s Bill Ladson yesterday. According to James Wagner of the Washington Post, Desmond said he hasn’t thought about whether he would be open to talking about an extension during the season. Desmond doesn’t seem likely to be extended by the Nationals, but in-season negotiations have not been explicitly ruled out.

Key quote: “I’ve kind of kept it to myself and my agent. And that’s the way I plan on going forward. I feel like we’ve got a lot of expectations in here, and to reach them we’ve got to be really focused. I’m not going to be the one that adds any extra distractions.” – Ian Desmond, February 2015

5. Johnny Cueto. In December, Cueto’s agent Bryce Dixon set an Opening Day deadline for extension talks with the Reds, in talking to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, so less than six weeks remain. Dixon noted in that conversation that Lester is a better comp for Cueto than Homer Bailey, while Max Scherzer is the closest comp. The two sides held preliminary talks at the Winter Meetings in December.

Key quote: “He wants to stay if the numbers are right.” – Bryce Dixon, December 2014 (MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reporting)

6. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann is willing to discuss a contract if the Nationals initiate talks this spring, but he does not want to negotiate in-season, reports Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com. The pitcher said Saturday, “We negotiated a little bit and didn’t get very far,” also saying that he believes everything is on hold right now.

Key quote: “Once the season starts, I really don’t want to talk. So if something happens in spring here, we’re willing to listen. But once the season starts, I don’t really want to talk about it.” – Jordan Zimmermann, February 2015

7. Alex Gordon. Talking to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star on Saturday, Gordon backed off his previous suggestion that he’ll pick up his $14MM player option for 2016, saying, “That’s a question that honestly doesn’t need to be answered right now. Because I don’t know the answer right now. I don’t know how this year is going to go, or how it’s going to look at the end of the year.” According to McCullough, Gordon indicated there were no ongoing negotiations, but he’s willing to discuss an extension at any point during the season.

Key quote: “I want to stay here. Absolutely. It’s close to home. Kansas City almost feels like my hometown. We love the city. We love everybody in this organization. And obviously it’s in a good place right now. It’s come a long way. And I want to be a part of the success that I think we’re still going to have.” – Alex Gordon, February 2015

8. Zack Greinke. Last Thursday, Greinke told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick he won’t decide whether to opt out of his contract until after the season. Greinke can become a free agent that way, or he can stick with the remaining three years and $71MM covering 2016-18. Greinke told reporters he’s open to negotiating with the Dodgers, noting, “and I’m sure they’re open to me taking a cheap deal.”

Key quote: “It’s all to your benefit. If things are going good, you can use it for more power. There’s no negative to it.” – Zack Greinke on his opt-out, February 2015

9. Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija’s agent Mark Rodgers joined Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM earlier this month and said he and his client will listen to the White Sox anytime they want to talk. At the Winter Meetings in December, Sox GM Rick Hahn expressed interest in extending his new acquisition. On the radio show in February, though, Rodgers explained that a player needs to reach free agency to determine his true open market value.

Key quote: “To talk about what his value is in free agency a year early would really do him an injustice, because I think there’s more to come, better to come from Jeff.” – Mark Rodgers, February 2015

10. Matt Wieters. Back in December, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe said there seems to be no urgency with Wieters’ camp or the Orioles to work out an extension. Most of the talk lately about Wieters has been about whether he will be ready for Opening Day given his Tommy John surgery last June. Since Wieters is a Scott Boras client, the chances of a deal getting done before free agency seem slim.

For some other names that could battle their way into the top ten in the coming months, check out my 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings. The 2015-16 class looks very strong, much better than the projected 2016-17 group. But how many of the ten players listed here will actually reach the open market? I feel that Heyward, Price, and Gordon have reasonable chances of signing extensions, while the other seven are likely to reach free agency.

Tigers Re-Sign Joba Chamberlain

By Tim Dierkes | February 24, 2015 at 7:54am CDT

7:54am: Chamberlain can earn up to $500K with the same incentive scale that he had on his previous one-year deal with the Tigers, tweets MLB.com’s Jason Beck. Per Cot’s Contracts, that included an additional $100K for reaching 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 appearances.

7:33am: Chamberlain will receive a $1MM base salary plus incentives, tweets Rosenthal.

6:50am: The Tigers have reached an agreement on a one-year, Major League deal with reliever Joba Chamberlain, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Chamberlain, a client of Excel Sports Management’s Jim Murray, was spotted in Tigers Spring Training camp this morning, notes Rosenthal.

Chamberlain, 29, posted a 3.57 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, and 53.2% groundball rate in 63 innings for the Tigers last year. The Dodgers also had late interest in him this offseason. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted earlier this month, Chamberlain makes for a solid buy on a one-year deal, perhaps more so than remaining free agent relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano. Chamberlain did experience a second-half dropoff, at a time he was also helping his ailing mother.

Chamberlain rejoins a Tigers bullpen that hasn’t seen much turnover since the end of last season. The Tigers did add lefty Tom Gorzelanny in January, and they’ve got Bruce Rondon on the mend from March 2014 Tommy John surgery. They’ll have a full season of Joakim Soria, and closer Joe Nathan remains under contract as well. However, for the most part, the Tigers will deploy a very similar mix to the grouping that cost them in the 2014 American League Championship Series. Receiving better production from that group will be vital for the Tigers in an improved AL Central that saw the White Sox, in particular, make an aggressive push toward contention this winter.

On the whole, Detroit relievers posted an unsightly 4.29 ERA and a 4.09 FIP, both of which ranked 27th among 30 big league clubs. They’ll hope that the return of Rondon and a full season of Soria can help to right the ship in the bullpen.

Hoops Rumors Has Your NBA Trade Deadline Coverage

By Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2015 at 12:29pm CDT

The clock is ticking toward the NBA trade deadline at 2pm Central time today! We’re on top of it all on Hoops Rumors as the Thunder and Nets near a blockbuster involving Brook Lopez and Reggie Jackson. Multiple deals have already gone down elsewhere, with Arron Afflalo heading to the Blazers, JaVale McGee on his way to the 76ers, and Ramon Sessions and Andre Miller changing places. Check out Hoops Rumors for all the excitement as the trade rumors fly!

Recent Reviews For The Trade Rumors App

By Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2015 at 9:38am CDT

136 five-star reviews don’t lie. Check out a sampling of the App Store reviews for our Trade Rumors app on iOS, all from within the last two weeks:

Stop thinking about it and download it already. It’s as awesome as the site. – Skin E. G., Feb. 18

I have had the MLBTR app for a while after using the site for years. Then the new app blew me away. I had never followed the NFL site before but it is now a critical part of my sports day. Love it. – Johndcoyle, Feb. 18

This app is great to keep up with a specific team or league. The info is usually spot on and is delivered quickly before anyone else. – Joemx14, Feb. 13

Love the ability to see just my teams and players that I want to follow. Great app. – digitalturtle, Feb. 12

This is THE go-to app for sports transactions. The real-time information and analysis is second to none. – Robert Martinez, Feb. 8

Did we mention the Trade Rumors app is free and now allows you to set up notifications and feeds at the sport, team, and/or player level? Download Trade Rumors for iOS or Android today!

2016 Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | February 18, 2015 at 12:01am CDT

With the sun setting on the 2014-15 free agent class, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2015-16 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2015 season, unless they sign contract extensions first. A few extensions are likely, but for now the 2015-16 free agent class has no shortage of star power. MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents can be found here.

What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.

1. Justin Upton. Upton possesses the profile that most often results in a monster contract: power, youth, and durability. He doesn’t turn 28 until August, so his next team might be able to avoid paying him into his late 30s. The first overall draft pick in 2005, Upton has hit 26 or more home runs in four of his six full seasons, including the last two. He peaked at 31 bombs in 2011, and given his pedigree, there’s an underlying assumption that he’s capable of hitting 35-40. With the December trade to San Diego, Upton must verify his power in a home ballpark where longballs go to die. He’s nothing special defensively; Upton’s chance at Robinson Cano money or better lies in good old-fashioned baseball card stats.

2. Jason Heyward. Upton’s former teammate can challenge his ranking with a big year for the Cardinals. Unlike Upton, Heyward didn’t surrender any potential free agent years through a mid-career extension. The result: Heyward doesn’t turn 26 until August. That’s about as young as a star free agent can reasonably be, given the requirement of six years of Major League service. Heyward seemed destined for MVP awards after he finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting with a great season at age 20. However, he hasn’t been able to repeat his .393 on-base percentage from that season, and he missed large chunks of the 2011 and ’13 seasons due to injuries. Heyward hit 27 home runs in 2012, so he still owns that skill despite hitting just 25 in the two subsequent seasons. More than his offense, Heyward’s value is derived from Gold Glove defense in right field. If he posts another slugging percentage under .400, his free agency will be a litmus test of whether teams will pay superstar money for superstar defense. If he couples that defense with rediscovered 25+ home run power, Heyward could sign the largest free agent contract in baseball history.

3. David Price. This is a very strong crop of free agent starting pitchers at present, but Price is the best. 30 in August, Price won the AL Cy Young award in 2012 and finished sixth in the voting last year. Last year he tossed 256 1/3 total innings with a career-best strikeout rate, while maintaining the excellent control he established in 2013. The only real blemish on his health record is a 47-day DL stint in ’13 for a triceps strain. If he racks up innings this year for the Tigers with another low-3s ERA, he might be able to exceed $200MM without relying on deferred money to get there.

4. Ian Desmond. The Nationals’ shortstop rejected a seven-year, $107MM extension offer during the 2013-14 offseason, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Kilgore reported that the offer was actually only for five additional seasons, and it included deferred money. Desmond, 30 in September, has the potential to exceed $200MM on the open market with another strong season. In terms of wins above replacement, he’s easily been the game’s best shortstop since 2012. Desmond offers the extremely rare combination of power, durability, speed, and solid shortstop defense. However, his contact rate dipped below 70% for the first time in 2014, and a continuation of that trend would affect his earning power.

5. Johnny Cueto. Only Clayton Kershaw’s brilliance prevented Cueto from winning the NL Cy Young award in 2014. Cueto, who turned 29 last Sunday, posted a 2.25 ERA over 243 2/3 innings last year with a career-best strikeout rate. That was a huge workload, especially since Cueto was limited to 11 starts in 2013 due to a shoulder strain. He missed significant time in 2011 with shoulder issues as well. Cueto can set aside some concerns with a DL-free 2015 campaign. Potential bonus: he could become ineligible for a qualifying offer if the Reds trade him during the season.

6. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann, 29 in May, finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting last year. A few factors put him below Cueto: he doesn’t go particularly deep into games, and he’s generally posted strikeout rates below the league average prior to 2014. That might be nitpicking – Zimmermann has great control and a 3.00 ERA since 2011. He had Tommy John surgery in August 2009 and has avoided the DL since.

7. Alex Gordon. Gordon is an older version of Heyward – an occasionally underpowered corner outfielder who posted a huge WAR last year on the strength of great defense. Gordon still has 39 home runs over the last two seasons, though, so he’s shown more recent pop than Heyward. Gordon, drafted by the Royals directly after Upton in ’05, delayed his free agency by two years with an extension in 2012. As such, he recently turned 31. As Shin-Soo Choo can attest, that’s still young enough to garner a contract well above $100MM. In August, Gordon told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star he plans to pick up his 2016 player option, which appears to be worth $14MM. If the Royals are willing to double their current franchise record $55MM contract, an extension could be possible, but I don’t think there’s much chance of Gordon simply picking up that player option when it comes due.

8. Zack Greinke. After the 2015 season, Greinke must decide whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM left on his contract. That wouldn’t be worth doing for something similar to the four-year, $75MM contract James Shields just received, but Greinke will be a year younger than Shields was. So far Greinke has a 2.68 ERA in 380 innings in his two seasons for the Dodgers, with his strikeout rate bumping back up in 2014. Another healthy season with an ERA around 3.00 would instill confidence in a potential five-year deal, in which case Greinke would be expected to opt out to try to lock in $100MM+ in new money.

9. Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija, 30, made his first All-Star team in 2014. He posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings for the Cubs and A’s after posting a 4.10 ERA in his previous two seasons as a starter. It was clear that Samardzija’s 2012-13 ERAs were inflated beyond his skill level. He’s a horse who works at 94-95 miles per hour, and he’s never been on the disabled list. A wide receiver at Notre Dame, Samardzija didn’t commit fully to baseball until the Cubs drafted him in ’06. He also spent much of his early big league career as a reliever. The result is less mileage on his arm than any of the pitchers listed above him, even including Zimmermann. He could easily wind up being a better bet for the next five or six years than his rival free agent starters. Samardzija was traded to the White Sox in December.

10. Matt Wieters. Wieters, 29 in May, saw his season end on May 10th of last year due to an elbow issue. The catcher had Tommy John surgery in June and expects to be ready for Opening Day. Will he be able to throw out baserunners? Wieters, who was drafted by the Orioles fifth overall in 2007, also must answer questions about his bat. He slumped to a .704 OPS in 2013, but had a great first month in ’14. Wieters tallied a mammoth 4,600 innings behind the dish from 2010-13, and it’s difficult to say when that workload will catch up to him. Wieters could get a nine-figure contract this offseason, but only if all of these questions are answered with a strong year.

Plenty of other players will be vying to break into our top ten throughout the season, including Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes, Denard Span, Howie Kendrick, Steve Pearce, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chris Davis. You can check out the full 2015-16 free agent list here.

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