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Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

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Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Trade Deadline Retrospective: Harper, Astros, Garcia, Nats, Puig

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Baseball fans everywhere were stripped of high-level trade deadline intrigue last season, as Ken Rosenthal details in a stunning report for The Athletic, when a trade that would have sent Bryce Harper to the Astros in exchange for a trio of prospects was nixed by Washington’s ownership group.  The trade, said to have been agreed upon a day before the July 31 deadline, would have sent 2017 first-rounder J.B. Bukauskas to the Nats, as well as two other prospects, one of which was reportedly catcher Garrett Stubbs.  Though Bukauskas faces questions about a third pitch, which could relegate him to eventual relief duty, and Stubbs has cooled after a blistering 2016 performance for Double-A Corpus Christi, the package was surely superior in value to the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive should Harper depart in free agency, which, as Rosenthal notes, will come after the fourth round in next year’s draft, by virtue of the club exceeding the luxury tax total in 2018.  Houston, which received middling corner-outfield production from Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez last season, would certainly have benefitted from Harper’s presence in a lineup diminished by injuries to Carlos Correa and a substandard season from George Springer, though the departing asset cost would’ve assuredly been hefty for only two months of the 25-year-old superstar.

  • Though no official reason was offered for the disapproval, Rosenthal speculates the Nationals owners may have been worried about damaging their relationship with Harper in the offseason to come. The club, after all, did offer Harper a reported $300MM over ten years on the last day of the 2018 season, and figures to further its aggression in efforts to sign the generational talent. During the August waiver period, the club also shot down a Dodger effort to acquire Harper, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times. It appears this offer, which reportedly included outfielder Yasiel Puig at its center, was nixed at the front office level, though it’s certainly plausible that previous ownership mandates were a significant factor in the team’s eventual refusal to depart with the star. Puig, certainly, would have been an intriguing return for just over a month’s use of Harper – the 27-year-old has had his share of on-field dustups, to be sure, but has remained a force at the plate: in an odd reverse split, the polarizing Cuban has put up a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last two seasons, good for 12th among qualifiers in baseball during that span, and is under team control through the 2019 season.
  • After being stonewalled in their Harper pursuit, sources told Rosenthal that the Astros pivoted their attention (to, obviously, no avail) in the final hours to White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, dangling right-handed pitching prospect Francis Martes, whose damaged right elbow was apparently of no concern to the Southsiders.  Garcia, who’s been around replacement-level in five of his six major league seasons thus far, seemed an odd target for an Astro club not much in need of a right-handed boost – the 27-year-old, after all, posted a minuscule 1.4% BB rate in the season’s first half, and again sunk to a level of below-league-average production by the time his season ended in knee surgery in mid-September.

AL West Notes: Correa, A’s, Beltre

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Astros shortstop Carlos Correa announced today at a team benefit that he underwent surgery to repair a deviated septum last Monday.  The nasal affliction, said the 24-year-old, was inhibiting his ability to breathe normally, especially when running the bases.  Arguably the centerpiece of the team’s 2017 championship run, the former #1 overall pick slumped to a career-worst .239/.323/.405 games last season.  He especially struggled in the season’s second half, posting a putrid 45 wRC+ and 24% hard contact rate over 133 PA following a return from the DL after a bout of lower back soreness.  During multiple gatherings with the reporters on a crusty Minute Maid Park surface, the former Rookie of the Year made no effort to draw a nexus between the respiratory issues and his poor performance, but did note that he doesn’t expect to have surgery to address the lower-back ailment, with the Houston Chronicle’s Brian T. Smith tweeting that the shortstop is “doing well” right now.

In other news from around the division . . .

  • On the heels of a wildly successful 2018 season, the A’s have announced changes to the team’s player development program, reports The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard. The club, apparently, is piggybacking on recent trends in the rookie-level Arizona League, where select teams – namely, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, and Giants – have added a second ’affiliate’ to compete in the league.  In this case, it seems the move is an effort to acclimate newly-signed international players to the American way of life (and professional baseball in the country) at a far more rapid rate than in the past.  Eddie Menchaca, who managed the lone AZL affiliate for the club last year, will reprise his role as manager for one of the teams, in addition to fulfilling his newly-appointed duties as Latin American player development supervisor.  The club’s farm, responsible in no small part for the team’s periodic, oft-unforeseen success over the last two decades, is ranked middle-of-the-pack in Baseball America’s latest update.
  • Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News cites a source “close” to Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre in declaring that a decision on the 39-year-old’s future could come “within a week or so.”  Beltre, of course, is deeply contemplating retirement, with a recent report by FanCred’s Jon Heyman noting that “the belief” is that the 21-year-veteran is leaning in that direction. If he is to return, Beltre seems to have given conflicting directives in the way of his future, with Grant noting that the Ranger dignitary “would like” to return to Texas but is most interested in playing for a contending team, of which category the 2019 Rangers are decidedly unlikely to fall into.  The article, which details possible positional alignments for the 2019 club, in addition to revelatory quotes from GM Jon Daniels, is well worth a full read for Ranger fans of all sorts.

Blue Jays Fire Hitting Coach Jacoby, First-Base Coach Leiper

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The Blue Jays have fired hitting coach Brook Jacoby and first-base coach Tim Leiper, according to a report from John Lott of The Athletic, later confirmed by GM Ross Atkins. Both coaches had a year remaining on three-year contracts signed prior to the 2017 season.

The firings are the first in what could be wholesale changes for the staff under new manager Charlie Montoyo, per the report. Montoyo, formerly the bench coach in Tampa, has deemed the assembly of a quality staff “very important” as he enters his first season as manager in the bigs.

Jacoby, 58, had manned the post since the start of the 2015 season.  Prior to his tenure with Toronto, the 12-year big league veteran held the same position in Cincinnati for seven seasons.

His dismissal is a bit of a surprise for a Toronto team that received encouraging 2018 production from several first-year players in the wake of serious injuries to Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki.  Rookies Billy McKinney, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Danny Jansen, Rowdy Tellez, and Dwight Smith Jr. all performed at an above-league-average rate this season, albeit in limited samples, and reclamation projects Aledmys Diaz and Randal Grichuk, stalled Cardinals both, again flashed the ability that had catapulted each to regular status in St. Louis.  As a team, the Blue Jays’ 101 wRC+ tied for 8th in the major leagues, a marked improvement over last year’s paltry output.  Still, it’s a lineup that, under Jacoby’s watch, failed to produce a single breakout star, and witnessed the rapid diminishment of once-promising second baseman Devon Travis, plus the total collapse of former regular Yangervis Solarte.

Leiper, 52, was a longtime manager in the minor leagues before being appointed to John Gibbons’ staff prior to the 2014 season.

Brewers Hire Andy Haines As Hitting Coach

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The Brewers have hired Andy Haines as the team’s hitting coach, reports Jon Heyman of Fancred on Twitter.  Haines, 41, will replace Darnell Coles, who stepped down from the post late last week.

Formerly of the Cubs organization, where he served as the team’s assistant hitting coach in 2018 after two seasons spent as the club’s coordinator of minor league hitting, Haines has a wide and varied in the background in the game.  He’s previously managed at multiple stops in the Miami system, where from 2010-2012 his posts overlapped with the low-level development of current Brewer Christian Yelich.  In all, Haines skippered at five spots across the Marlins’ farm, culminating with his 2014-15 post at the helm of the AAA New Orleans affiliate.  Baseball America has twice named Haines as a top managerial prospect, per his bio at mlb.com.

Haines will work to stabilize an uneven Brewers offense last season, whose massive breakouts – Yelich, to an MVP-caliber .326/.402/.598 (166 wRC+), and Jesus Aguilar (35 HR, 134 wRC+) – were offset by cataclysmic decline (Orlando Arcia’s NL-worst 54 wRC+, Jonathan Schoop’s .202/.246/.331 crater after joining the team, major regression from Eric Thames and Domingo Santana).  With Steamer forecasting a 27 percent drop in Yelich’s production in the upcoming season and pegging Aguilar to return to near league-average (104 wRC+), the 2019 Brewers will almost certainly need rebounds from ’18 underperformers to stay afloat in a difficult NL Central.

In all, Milwaukee posted a respectable .252/.323/.424 as a team last season, numbers slightly inflated by the generous dimensions of the team’s home park.  Still, in addition to the aforementioned regulars, the Brewers return veteran performers Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, and Travis Shaw, and figure to benefit from the sizzling bat of top prospect Keston Hiura, should the club sputter in the season’s first half.

Mets Notes: Van Wagenen, deGrom, Cespedes, Vargas, CAA

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Earlier this afternoon, the Mets sent shockwaves through the baseball world by reportedly agreeing to terms with former CAA agent Brodie Van Wagenen on a deal to become the team’s new General Manager.  The hire, reportedly spearheaded by team COO Jeff Wilpon, is a puzzling one for an organization in flux: Van Wagenen, after all, was hired despite a résumé utterly devoid of any front office, scouting, or player development experience, and currently represents nearly a quarter of the Mets’ 25-man roster in contract matters.  Charges of interest conflicts will assuredly be flung from all directions – according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the club seems as throughly entangled with the 44-year-old former agent as any in the league.  In the past two offseasons alone, Van Wagenen has negotiated deals on behalf of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, third baseman Todd Frazier, and lefty Jason Vargas for a combined $143MM.  Of particular interest to Sherman is Van Wagenen’s February 2018 outburst, where the agent, furious at perceived collusion in the glacially-paced free agent market, drafted a public statement suggesting that some frozen-out players may have been preparing to boycott the upcoming season.  Van Wagenen, of course, has now scooted his seat to the other side of the table, where the traits he doubtless extolled so forcefully will likely be minimized at every turn.

The elephant in that room, it seems, is 30-year-old Jacob deGrom, on whose side Van Wagenen has long campaigned for either an extension or trade, and many questions await.  Van Wagenen and his new colleagues could certainly extricate themselves from the awkward discussions to follow by peddling the ace at first opportunity in the forthcoming market, but that route seems altogether unlikely at this point.  In a separate report by The Post, sources indicate that team owner Fred Wilpon is hell-bent on a playoff run next season and was loath to consider candidates who suggested otherwise.

In other rumblings from Flushing . . .

  • Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News raises similar questions of the new hire, posing scores of inquiries about current and prospective players and the potential conflicts of interests with both.  In particular, she addresses the cases of former Van Wagenen clients Cespedes and Vargas, both of whom the agent may be forced to engage in uncomfortable discussions with.  Cespedes, of course, underwent a second surgery on his left heel yesterday and may miss up to half of the upcoming campaign.  Though he’s been productive at the plate over the last two seasons, slashing .282/.343/.525, the 33-year-old has been limited to just 120 games over that time and will figure to miss a good deal more in the season to come.  Vargas, 35, had a dreadful season last year, allowing 1.76 HR/9 and posting just 92 IP across 20 starts on the way to a 5.77 ERA.  His 8.22 K/9, the highest of his career, did leave some room for optimism, but a return to a similar path will almost surely leave the new GM in an extremely awkward position with a former client who has just one year remaining on his deal.
  • Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that Matt Ricatto and Jeff Berry of CAA will now handle agency duties for deGrom following the departure of Van Wagenen.

Stearns On Brewers’ Offseason, Future Outlook

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After a deflating coda to one of the most successful seasons in franchise history, Brewers GM David Stearns held court with the media yesterday to discuss the team’s position heading into the 2019 season.  Though obviously disheartened with the club’s Game Seven performance at home last Saturday, the third-year boss sees little reason for pessimism in the near future.

“From an organizational perspective, I’m incredibly proud of how our organization presented itself throughout the season and particularly on a national stage in October,” Stearns said. “Another rewarding aspect is we genuinely believe we are set up to succeed going forward. We return the vast majority of the core of this team. We return that core for multiple years going forward.”

Indeed, the Brewers boast just three players – lefties Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, along with 37-year-old Curtis Granderson – who stand to hit free agency this offseason.  With a glut of emerging rotation candidates, including Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes, and regulars with lengthy track records entrenched at multiple positions, the 2019 Brewers figure to look strikingly similar to the current version.

“From a specific standpoint, a positional standpoint at the major-league level, we have the vast majority of our team returning,” said Stearns. “So, I don’t know that I would pinpoint a particular area or two that we see that absolutely must be addressed. But there are going to be opportunities to improve our team in the off-season, and we’re going to work hard to take advantage of those opportunities.”

Milwaukee will face difficult decisions with Joakim Soria and Mike Moustakas, over whom the club holds contract options for the upcoming season, and Jonathan Schoop, whose $10.1MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) is hardly congruent with his recent output.  The Brewers hold a $10MM option over the 34-year-old Soria, who stands as one of the game’s few relievers able to sustain success for more than a decade – the two-time All-Star enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018, posting his highest strikeout rate (11.13 K/9) in nine years and again limiting walks and homers at an elite rate.  His 92.4 MPH average fastball sits in perfect harmony with his marks in the category over the last few years and again ranked as one of the league’s most effective, per FanGraphs’ pitch value ratings.  He’s surely worth the figure, but might be a luxury item for the mid-market club already possessing of an elite back-end bullpen.  Moustakas, 30, has a mutual option with the Crew for $15MM in ’19 and seems most likely to be cut loose – his presence, after all, would mean an unorthodox return to second base for the 6’4, 230 lb Travis Shaw, likely rendering Schoop – for whom the Brewers gave up a package that included Jonathan Villar, who easily outperformed Schoop last season, and highly regarded hurler Luis Ortiz – a platoon bat at best, if retained.

The only clear area of upgrade may be shortstop, where former top prospect Orlando Arcia sputtered to a dreadful 54 wRC+ and .235 xWOBA this season.  Arcia’s defense, long seen as sufficient to overcome a hole-ridden swing, has received mostly ambivalent reviews in his three-year career thus far, with UZR (-5.3 total) being a bit more skeptical than DRS (+8).  The Crew could turn to Schoop, though his mostly average marks at the keystone wouldn’t seem to portend well at a more demanding position, or pursue a trade, though the options, much like the free agent market at the position, are far from promising.  Catcher could be another option, though Stephen Vogt hopes to be ready by Spring Training in his recovery from a shoulder tear.  For bait, the club could look to deal from its a long-standing surplus in the outfield, where even former middle-of-the-order stalwarts Domingo Santana and Eric Thames struggled to find at-bats down the stretch.

In all, the Brewers project to have a ~$25MM payroll bump (to an estimated $115MM, per Roster Resource and MLBTR’s Jason Martinez) before the option decisions, so the team doesn’t figure to be major players in free agency, though Stearns certainly didn’t rule it out: “I certainly imagine that we are going to show up in spring training with a slightly different-looking roster than the one we have right now, perhaps in ways that we don’t envision.”

Marlins Sign Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr.

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10:50am: Victor Victor’s bonus checks in at $5.25MM, while Victor Jr. received a $1MM bonus, per Sanchez (Twitter link).

Oct. 22, 9:55am: The Marlins have formally announced the signing of the Mesa brothers and will be streaming a press conference to introduce the pair at Marlins.com and also on Periscope.

Oct. 20, 2:48pm: Victor Victor is expected to receive a bonus in excess of $5MM, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez on Twitter.

2:12pm: Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the Marlins have officially signed the brothers.  Terms of the deals have yet to be released.

1:15pm: Cuban outfield prospect Victor Victor Mesa and brother Victor Mesa Jr. are expected to sign with the Marlins at some point in the next few days, according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald.  The news is certainly not official yet, but an unnamed source claims the brothers have passed physicals and will be introduced “imminently” at a Marlins Park press conference (at which Executive Director Derek Jeter and President of Baseball Operations Michael Hill are slated to attend) scheduled for 11 AM Monday.

Victor Victor, 22, was arguably the most coveted amateur free agent on the International market at current, and Ebro’s sources indicate that he’s expected to receive a bonus in excess of $4MM.  Mesa Jr., 17, is expected to receive a bonus “close to” $1MM, per the report.  Right-hander Sandy Gaston, oft mentioned in concert with his countrymen, appears to be headed elsewhere, per Ebro, though FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel tweets that “the belief” is that Miami could still find a way to fit him in their ~6.75MM bonus pool, too.

Victor Victor, the son of Cuban baseball luminary Victor Mesa, slashed .354/.399/.539 for Matanzas in his last full season of play (2016-2017, when he was just 20) in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.  Reports have indicated that he may need just minimal seasoning in the minors before getting his shot with the big club, with MLB.com taking particular note of his “outstanding” defense, plus throwing arm and running ability, and potential to hit at the top of a lineup.  The older Mesa starred in a recent showcase at his soon-to-be new home park, where he impressed scouts during a live batting practice session.  Mesa Jr.’s calling cards appear to be an above-average arm and plus contact ability, though at age 17, he certainly has plenty of projection remaining.

The addition of the Mesa brothers, particularly the elder of the two, is an important step in the Marlins’ ongoing rebuild of the organization under new ownership.  Last offseason’s trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon marked a clear retooling effort with a focus not only on shedding payroll but also adding a wave of young talent to the organization.  This latest pair of additions will only further the goal of creating a foundation of intriguing young players.  With most of its pool now exhausted, Miami will look to offseason trades and a favorable No. 4 overall selection in the 2019 draft as additional avenues to bolster its growing reservoir of prospects.

NL Notes: Wainwright, Robles, Braves

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37-year-old Adam Wainwright, who re-upped with the club on a one-year pact earlier this month, was elated with the progress of his balky right elbow over the season’s last two months, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details in a lengthy overview of the situation.  Wainwright, who had Tommy John surgery in 2011 and has dealt with discomfort in his elbow on multiple occasions, has apparently had issues with “deep” bone bruises in the area for a number of years now, an ailment for which he could not seem to find a solution.  That appears to have changed, as Goold notes, with Wainwright’s adoption of a new, longer arm swing in the middle of his delivery.  “Whole new avenues are back in play that I haven’t been able to do in years,” Wainwright said. “I left this season, I left that last start feeling motivated and feeling better than I have in a long time.” The stats do seem, at least in part, to reinforce Wainwright’s perspective: in 22 1/3 IP after his return from the DL on September 10, Wainwright struck out 25 batters and walked just three.  His 8.93 K/9, albeit in an extremely small, 40 1/3 IP sample, ranks as the highest in his career, though the rest of his peripherals (a 4.02 BB/9 that led to a career-worst 106 xFIP-) leave little to shout about.

In other news from other around the league . . .

  • Mark Zuckerman of MASN peers into Victor Robles’ place in a potentially crowded Washington outfield next season.  The consensus top five overall prospect’s status as a coveted trade chip will likely be on hold until the impending Bryce Harper sweepstakes have reached their conclusion, it seems, as the Nats will almost certainly plug Robles into the center field role should Harper depart.  Zuckerman notes that Robles, in addition to possessing a near limitless all-around ceiling, is a “gregarious” personality who brims with confidence in all aspects of his play.  Indeed, after an uninspiring start to the season at Triple-A Syracuse and in a short stint with the parent club, the 21-year-old unleashed his dormant offensive ability, slashing .359/.405/.718 over the season’s last two weeks after recovering from a hyperextended elbow suffered earlier in the year.  The Nats, of course, could both re-sign Harper and make room for Robles by trading outfielder Adam Eaton, though that scenario does not seem to be on the club’s table at the moment.
  • MLB.com’s Mark Bowman outlines the Braves’ prospective payroll next season, estimating that the club will have “at least” $60MM with which to maneuver this offseason.  Atlanta, who boasts one of the game’s deepest farm systems, a unit stacked with high-upside starting pitchers of all kinds, could look to the trade market – as GM Alex Anthopoulos seemed to suggest in a recent summit with reporters – to address a thin big league rotation and question marks behind the plate and (at one spot) in the corner outfield.  Third base, manned mostly by a resurgent Johan Camargo, who slashed just .278/.333/.372 across parts of seven minor league seasons, could also be an area of need, as projection systems will likely not be kind to the 24-year-old.  For his part, David O’Brien of The Athletic believes the Braves will have far less than Bowman’s $60MM estimate to spend, placing the figure at nearly half the stated mark.

Quick Hits: Muncy, Voit, O’Hearn, Spin Rates, Astros

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In one of the most statistically improbable turnarounds in recent memory, Dodgers 1B/2B/3B/OF Max Muncy, he of the .195/.290/.321 line across 245 plate appearances in parts of two seasons for Oakland, broke out in the biggest of ways for Los Angeles this season, slamming 35 home runs in just 395 AB and posting a .263/.391/.582 mark that stood as one of the National League’s best.  Yankees 1B Luke Voit, a footnote trade deadline acquisition in ’18, posted an even more impressive (albeit in a much smaller sample) 187 wRC+ in 161 PA down the stretch for the Bombers this season.  And Royals 1B Ryan O’Hearn, who’d slumped badly in parts of two seasons at Triple-A Omaha before his promotion this summer, shocked the organization by dropping a .262/.353/.597 mark across 170 PA for Kansas City in the second half.  In a fascinating look at their respective backgrounds, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper (subscription required) revisits the trio’s unheralded prospect days, when the three seemed to register only mildly on the wide-ranging radar of professional scouts.  All three, it appears, were hampered by the 2011 NCAA-mandated switch from aluminum bats to composite, with Voit in particular banging just 19 career HR across four seasons at Missouri State (a school which, notably, has produced a glut of big leaguers, including Ryan Howard, over the last two decades).  Though none of the three were highly regarded in their respective organizations prior to the breakouts, and sustained production at their 2018 levels seems virtually impossible, it should be noted that a number of players have shown immediate power spikes upon their promotion to MLB of late, and both Muncy (.392) and Voit (.440, best in the league among players with at least 150 PA) rate quite favorably in Statcast’s xWOBA metric.

In other bits of interest from around the league . . .

  • FiveThirtyEight’s Travis Sawchik launches far into the spin-rate galaxy in a delightfully data-heavy piece packed with informative bits.  Though the spin-rate data is still young, and ever-conservative analysts caution against drawing too heavily from its many layers, certain teams appear to be drilling in earnest: Sawchik cites the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams who’ve seen significant jumps in the four-seam fastball version of the metric since the advent of the data, taking particular care to address the case of Gerrit Cole, whose resurgent season coincided with a jump of over 200 rpms in his four-seamer from 2017.  Still, traditional analytic bastions Oakland and Tampa Bay have each seen a decrease in overall spin-rate on the fastball over the same frame, so perhaps the aforementioned uptick is little more than coincidence.  The article, which also features a good deal of commentary and speculation from outspoken Indians hurler Trevor Bauer, is well worth a full read for all.
  • The Astros, who revamped their organization with a heavy emphasis on raw data and wall-to-wall granularity, also care deeply about the team’s culture, writes Jayson Stark of The Athletic. GM Jeff Luhnow came to Houston from St. Louis, which Stark describes as ’obsessed’ with the culture of the team, and has apparently taken great strides to ensure the Astros “operate as a cohesive unit.” “We spend a lot of time,” Luhnow said. “Clubbies [clubhouse men] talk to clubbies. Trainers talk to trainers. Front offices talk to front offices. Players talk to players. You can always find a player who was with that team last year who is no longer with them, who somebody with the organization knows. Information crosses boundaries very rapidly.”  The piece is rife with further quotes from Luhnow and analysis from Stark, who cites Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann as players who were acquired for more than just their on-field abilities.

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