Trade Candidate: Red Sox Outfielders
With the free agent market wrapping up, there remains plenty of intrigue left in the offseason. In addition to extensions, several trade situations still seem worth watching over the spring.
One of those is the glut of outfielders in Boston. Even after dealing Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox have an arguably-untenable bunching of players lined up for outfield reps. Spring Training could go a long way toward sorting through the apparent bunching, to be sure, but good health and solid performances could force a deal.
Let’s take a look at the club’s candidates for the roster and/or trade block. (Note: I am not saying that all of these players are realistic trade candidates!) It’s one of the most interesting compilations of outfielders we are likely ever to see heading into spring.
Mookie Betts — He’d be the starting second baseman for many teams, but with the Red Sox he could theoretically slot in anywhere. Betts is an extremely flexible piece with plenty of long-term value, and there is no way he will be dealt in anything other than a blockbuster.
Jackie Bradley Jr. — Something of a forgotten man, Bradley remains a high-floor player with his top-end glove and would surely draw plenty of interest in trade. If he no longer has a firm place in the team’s long-term plans, Bradley would be perhaps the most obvious chip to be used to make a late run at adding another starter. He could still be stashed in Triple-A, of course, though fitting him on the big league roster appears to be difficult at this point.
Rusney Castillo – Boston will be anxious to see how Castillo’s skills transfer in a full big league season after his impressive, but short-lived, debut late last year. He is highly unlikely to be traded.
Allen Craig — On most clubs, Craig would probably spend most of his time at first or DH. But with David Ortiz and Mike Napoli on board, he lands in an awkward spot for the Red Sox. With a terrible 2014 and still-spendy contract weighing down his value, Craig’s spring will likely determine his fate.
Brock Holt — Last year’s emergent hero looks like a solid bet to function as a super-utility player for the club next year, though a sub-par spring could certainly change that. Though he figures in the outfield mix as well, Holt is probably best viewed primarily as a utility infielder and therefore may not really be a part of this roster crunch.
Daniel Nava — Though his production dipped somewhat last year after a strong 2013, Nava still showed a league-average bat and actually posted much-improved defensive metrics. He would figure to draw a good deal of interest: though he is out of options, Nava is owed a reasonable $1.85MM and is controllable for two more years.
Hanley Ramirez — Not even eligible to be dealt at this point, Ramirez is unquestionably going to break camp with the team barring injury. But whether he transitions well to the outfield will have a major role in the team’s plans.
Shane Victorino — His contract looked like a steal after 2013, but a tough 2014 campaign makes the $13MM left to go seem a bit high. A healthy Victorino could force his way into the starting mix, or could make himself attractive in a trade — particularly if a contending club were to suffer an injury during camp.
And that’s all before mentioning Bryce Brentz, another viable outfield candidate who got his first taste of the bigs last year. Even if Boston carries six of the above players on its Opening Day roster — with a view to using Holt, Betts, and even Ramirez as part-time infield options as well — that leaves two players that will need to end up somewhere other than the MLB roster. While Bradley could easily start off in the minors, it would be much more difficult to justify such a move for Betts.
It is not impossible that the team will enter the season with control over all of these names, especially if a DL stint or two intervenes to delay the inevitable, but the backlog makes a trade rather likely. I would look for the club to take a close look at its options early in the spring and maintain an opportunistic outlook in trade talks.
With several of the more likely trade candidates needing to show their health and/or productivity this spring, it could be a drawn-out process with many hypothetically viable trade permutations. Also, with the enticing but low-probability possibility of going after a top-end starter, carrying this deep group will allow GM Ben Cherington to explore all such avenues without fear of exposing a lack of depth.
All said, the Boston outfield situation is one of the most interesting in the game. It should provide plenty for fans to digest and debate over the coming months.
Quick Hits: Tanaka, Sabathia, Royals, Cuba, Extensions
Yankees starters Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia are generating positive reports, team pitching coach Larry Rothschild tells Mark Didtler of the Associated Press (via the LoHud Yankees Blog). Tanaka has “felt good” while going through a normal winter progression, says Rothschild. The pair’s progress this spring will be critical for the Yankees. If Tanaka’s partially torn UCL or Sabathia’s balky knee are problematic, the club would seem a prime candidate to add pitching.
- In the final analysis, the Royals‘ run with James Shields was an example of the team “beating the system,” according to Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. By selling high on Wil Myers to add Shields, Kansas City added the arm it needed before cashing him in for a new first-round pick through the qualifying offer system.
- The Red Sox and Orioles have at least begun looking into the idea of playing a spring game in Cuba this year, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. While it appears unlikely that will happen in such short order, it certainly hints at how quickly things could move in that arena.
- Signing players to big extensions is obviously risky, and rarely works out in the way that many expect when a deal is struck. But that does not mean that they fail to deliver good value, or that teams are irrational in reaching them, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus writes.
Quick Hits: Porcello, White Sox, Frazier
If Rick Porcello‘s first season with the Red Sox goes well, he could be this season’s version of Jon Lester, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. At the beginning of next offseason, Porcello will still be just 26, and his combination of youth and performance could mean he’ll be sorting through nine-figure contract offers, just as Lester did earlier this winter after playing part of last season in Boston. For now, Porcello doesn’t seem to be in any hurry. “Honestly, I haven’t even thought about that yet,” he says. “I think whether it’s a contract discussion or anything else that could possibly to be a distraction for the team I think it’s important for those things to be limited.” Here are more notes from around the league.
- The White Sox‘ splashy offseason hasn’t come at the expense of their improving farm system, writes Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com writes. In particular, their trade for Jeff Samardzija didn’t come at too high a cost, especially considering the price the Athletics paid to get Samardzija in the first place. The White Sox have kept top prospects like Tim Anderson, Francellis Montas and Tyler Danish (and, of course, Carlos Rodon, although Rodon isn’t yet eligible to be traded anyway). “I was impressed,” says MLB.com’s Jim Callis. “Rick Hahn has done a tremendous job since he has been on the job of getting talent without giving up a whole lot, it doesn’t seem to me.”
- Todd Frazier‘s new $12MM contract with the Reds only covers his first two arbitration-eligible seasons, but Frazier would be open to a longer extension at some point, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. “I think both sides are pretty happy about it,” Frazier says, referring to his new contract. “I think everybody wants a long-term deal and stability. Right now, we thought this was the best option for us.” From the Reds’ perspective, there might not be much need right now to sign Frazier long-term, since Frazier’s big-league career got off to a relatively late start. Including the extra season of arbitration eligibility following the expiration of Frazier’s new contract, the Reds already control his rights through his age-31 season, so a long-term deal would only buy out new seasons beginning at age 32.
Cafardo On Vazquez, Cabrera, Papelbon
Yankees GM Brian Cashman feels that the potential is there for a big year, but he’s not guaranteeing the AL East title or anything of that sort, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. “We have a lot of talent,” he said. “Like other teams, we have some ifs. If we get good comebacks and our rotation stays healthy, if our team stays healthy, we’re a good team.” Additions like Andrew Miller will be counted on for production, but the Bombers will really hope for some vintage performances from guys like Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and embattled third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Here’s more from today’s column..
- The Phillies continue to insist on Blake Swihart in any deal for Cole Hamels and there’s been no movement to ask instead for Christian Vazquez. The Red Sox, meanwhile, refuse to part with their top young catcher. Cafardo suggests the Phillies could have a better chance of working out a deal with the Padres as they are more open to moving catching prospect Austin Hedges.
- There are no substantive talks between the Mets and Everth Cabrera‘s camp at the moment as they seem committed to Wilmer Flores. It was reported earlier this winter that the Mets had interest in the former Padres shortstop. A major league source with knowledge of Cabrera’s situation indicated to Cafardo that he has made great strides personally.
- Cafardo writes that the Blue Jays remain interested in Phillies reliever Jonathan Papelbon. A report from earlier this month characterized the Blue Jays as a “major long shot” to land the closer due to financial reasons.
- General Managers around the league can’t stop raving about 19-year-old Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. “He could be the next Robinson Cano/Chase Utley, but more Cano. That’s the kind of potential bat we’re talking about,” one National League talent evaluator said. An NL GM told Cafardo that Moncada “may be better than [Yasiel] Puig or [Jose] Abreu or [Yoenis] Cespedes or [Jorge] Soler.” Meanwhile, one GM tells Cafardo that the middle infielder would still require some minor league seasoning before breaking into the majors.
- There’s a good amount of interest in Brandon Beachy for when he’s finally ready to sign. The 28-year-old owns a lifetime 3.23 ERA over 46 big league starts, with a 3.34 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.39 SIERA.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Masterson, Rays, De Aza
The Red Sox are likely done adding to their Major League roster for the 2015 season, GM Ben Cherington told reporters, including John Tomase of WEEI.com, yesterday. “I would expect the group we have for spring training is in place and I would be surprised if there were any additions,” said Cherington. “I couldn’t completely rule out a non-roster deal with someone, but we feel good about where we are with our position player and pitching group, so this is probably the group you’ll see when we take the field in Fort Myers.” As Tomase notes, Cherington again ruled out the possibility of signing James Shields or making a significant run at Cole Hamels, as Tomase’s WEEI colleague Rob Bradford noted last month. Boston has added Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson and Wade Miley to its rotation this offseason, with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez joining the lineup.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- Masterson told Bradford earlier this week that he was surprised to be completely pain-free in a pre-Spring Training bullpen session. As Masterson explains, after he tore an oblique muscle last winter he did not have any scar tissue removed, which likely resulted in the pain he felt in his early spring bullpens. “I just figured I needed to loosen up, but it never did. Coming in right now compared to last year? It’s huge.” Masterson feels that early pain trickled down into his knee and hips, serving as a significant detriment to his 2014 numbers. Boston gave Masterson a one-year, $9.5MM contract this offseason with the belief that he can bounce back to his 2013 form and help lead their revamped rotation.
- While the Cubs insist that there was no tampering at play in their hiring of manager Joe Maddon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Rays insist that they do have evidence to the contrary. Maddon signed a five-year deal with the Cubs in early November, just 10 days after opting out of his deal with the Rays (though word that an agreement had been reached broke just seven days after his opt-out).
- The Orioles and Alejandro De Aza are headed for an arbitration hearing, GM Dan Duquette conceded today in an appearance on 105.7 The Fan radio (h/t: MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). Duquette said that he felt the team made a “very, very strong” offer to De Aza shortly before figures were exchanged, but no agreement was reached. De Aza filed for a $5.65MM salary, while the team came back with a flat $5MM offer, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
AL Notes: V-Mart, Miley, Hunter, Mariners
News broke earlier today that Victor Martinez will undergo knee surgery on Tuesday, and until the veteran slugger’s procedure is complete, the Tigers have no choice but to play the waiting game. “I don’t know what I need to fill [on the roster],” GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck). “We’re going to have to wait to do all of that until Tuesday.” If the best-case scenario of a four-to-six week absence is met, Detroit can rely on short-term fill-ins to take Martinez’s place. Mlive.com’s James Schmehl lists several internal options within the organization, and he also opines that free agents Dayan Viciedo and Chris Colabello could also fit as temporary replacements or bench depth.
Here’s some more from around the junior circuit…
- Wade Miley‘s three-year extension with the Red Sox has some positive luxury tax implications for the team, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. By locking Miley up now, he’ll likely cost Boston less against the tax than he would’ve had he gone year-to-year in arbitration. These savings could help the Sox get under the $189MM luxury tax threshold next winter or in 2017.
- In an interview on the MLB Network’s “Hot Stove” show (hat tip to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger), Torii Hunter said he wasn’t yet sure if 2015 will be his last season. “I don’t know. Right now, I’m just taking it one year at a time,” Hunter said. The 18-year veteran reportedly turned down some two-year offers before signing a one-year deal with the Twins in December.
- Mariners president Kevin Mather and GM Jack Zduriencik both attended a private workout for Cuban players Hector Olivera and Andy Ibanez, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times “wouldn’t overthink” why the two front office figures were present. As Divish notes, Mather and Zduriencik were already in the Dominican Republic for organizational meetings, so while it’s usually rare to see upper management at workouts, it makes sense that the two would check in on the workout during their visit.
- The Blue Jays‘ focus on developing young starting pitching is the backbone of Alex Anthopoulos’ plan to make the club into a consistent contender, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes. The Jays have built a very solid offensive core, but if the young arms fail to deliver, the team’s plans over the next few seasons become very uncertain.
- Astros owner Jim Crane likes his team’s offseason moves and tells MLB.com’s Richard Dean that GM Jeff Luhnow has more possible acquisitions in the works. “Jeff’s still working on a few — we’re looking for a couple more players [to see] if we can make a couple more key additions,” Crane said. “But we like the moves we’ve made, and I think the team’s going to be very exciting this year — a lot more competitive.”
Red Sox Sign Wade Miley To Three-Year Deal
The Red Sox and left-hander Wade Miley will never have to worry about arbitration, as his agents at O’Connell Sports Management have announced a three-year, $19.25MM contract extension that buys out all of his arbitration years (Twitter link). The Red Sox have announced the deal as well, which reportedly contains a club option for a fourth season.
The 28-year-old Miley, acquired from the Diamondbacks at the Winter Meetings in exchange for right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.3MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter. He will reportedly receive a $500K signing bonus before earning $3.5MM in 2015, $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017. His option is valued at $12MM and comes with a $500K buyout. Additionally, his deal contains $2MM worth of incentives that can boost the option’s value to $14MM. All told, Miley can earn up to $31MM over the next four years, if he reaches his incentives and the Red Sox exercise the option.
Formerly the No. 43 overall pick in the draft out of Southeastern Louisiana University, Miley first established himself as a rotation mainstay in the 2012 season, when he finished second to Bryce Harper in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Since claiming a place in the D-Backs’ rotation, Miley has pitched to a 3.74 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also been exceptionally durable in that time, averaging an even 200 innings over the past three seasons.
By agreeing to the deal, Miley’s agents have secured him his first fortune in baseball without drastically delaying his free agency, whereas the Red Sox have received cost certainty that keeps Miley’s price tag reasonable even in the event of a breakout season. Miley will be eligible to hit free agency entering either his age-31 (if the option is declined) or age-32 season (if it exercised), which should present him with the opportunity to earn at least one more significant payday on top of this sum.
The structure of Miley’s deal is rare, though certainly not unheard of among players in his service class, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. As the linked list shows, the most recent examples of such a structure include Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley, but to find a pitcher who signed a three-year deal with a club option in his first year of arbitration eligibility, we have to go back to 2009, when Paul Maholm did so with the Pirates.
Miley will be counted on, along with newcomer Rick Porcello and the returning Justin Masterson, to help reshape a Red Sox rotation that will also feature Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly. That quintet, backed by a remade offense that includes the likes of Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Rusney Castillo, will be tasked with reversing the fortunes of a 2014 club that followed up a World Series victory with a last-place finish in the AL East.
The Boston Glober’s Alex Speier first reported that the contract included a club option (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today provided the financial breakdown (on Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
James Shields Rumors: Wednesday
We learned last night that the market for James Shields was taking shape, with multiple offers on the table and an expectation that the righty would be signed by the end of the week. Today figures to deliver plenty more reporting on the best remaining free agent, and we’ll keep tabs on it here.
- The Cubs have entered the fray and are “kicking the tires” on Shields, reports David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com. Kaplan, too, hears that Shields is expected to choose a team by the end of the week, and the Cubs are among those he is considering. Kaplan tweets that the Cubs have been waiting to see where the Shields market ended up before getting too involved. He adds that Shields has interest in Chicago, with his relationship with manager Joe Maddon being a factor.
Earlier Updates
- Shields’s agent, Page Odle, has indicated to some clubs that his client is “getting close to resolution,” according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter).
- While it remains unclear exactly where they stand, the Marlins “remain in talks” involving Shields, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. As he writes, the club is more interested in a three-year deal than in going to four, with its pursuit complicated by payroll projections and the undecided situation of Dan Haren.
- If Miami is in, several other at-least-hypothetical landing spots appear to be out: The Cardinals prefer to plug Carlos Martinez in the rotation rather than signing Shields, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Rangers have not modified their intentions to avoid major free agent pitching investments, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter). And the always-unpredictable Athletics are not involved, per a tweet from Heyman.
- Two more west coast teams, the Giants and Angels, are also not currently in the running, Heyman reports (Twitter links). San Francisco had been in conversations in the four-year, $80MM range with Shields earlier in the offseason, per an Olney tweet, but ended up pursuing (and signing) Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong when they were rebuffed.
Latest On Yoan Moncada’s Market
The news that 19-year-old Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada is now eligible to sign with Major League teams launched an outpouring of speculation, and we may not have to wait too long for resolution to the situation, as the infielder tells MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez he hopes to sign in the near future. “My goal is to sign with a team soon, start training with them, and make it to the Major Leagues as fast as I can with whichever team that might be,” Moncada told Sanchez. Moncada could sign as soon as this month, according to Sanchez, who reminds that the infielder has already had private workouts for the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers. The first three teams listed are reportedly the heavy favorites to sign Moncada, though Sanchez notes that other teams will schedule private workouts now that Moncada is unblocked. He also adds that contract negotiations have intensified since news broke that he was cleared to sign.
Here are the latest updates on the market for Moncada, who has captured the intrigue of baseball fans around the world…
- Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons spoke to three different GMs whose teams have been previously connected to Moncada and was told that they are not pursuing him after all (Twitter link). The unnamed GMs each pointed to the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers as the favorites, although each warned to keep an eye on the Tigers as well.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that there is an expectation among rival executives that the Athletics will make a serious run at Moncada, as they did with Yoenis Cespedes three offseasons ago.
- In a full article (ESPN Insider required/recommended), Olney writes that there is also a belief among execs that the Dodgers‘ financial restraint to this point in the offseason could make them more aggressive on Moncada, with some believing that they will ultimately land him. Olney adds that many execs feel the Red Sox‘ current surplus of Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Pablo Sandoval and Mookie Betts will limit their interest and limit how far the team is willing to stretch. As Olney puts it, Boston simply isn’t as desperate for Moncada as some of their competition.
Cubs Claim Drake Britton, Designate Gonzalez Germen
The Cubs have claimed lefty Drake Britton off waivers from the Red Sox, the club announced. Fellow reliever Gonzalez Germen has been designated to clear roster space.
Britton, 25, has been productive at the big league level over the past two seasons in fairly limited action. In 27 2/3 total frames, he owns a 2.93 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. He did have a rough go of things at Triple-A Pawtucket last year, however, posting 58 1/3 innings of 5.86 ERA ball.
The game of musical roster spots continues for Germen, who has now been on four 40-man lists since mid-December. The 27-year-old righty should have a decent chance at earning a big league bullpen slot once he does settle in somewhere for camp.