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2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts

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The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards.  With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick.  It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix.  Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.

The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick.  “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.

That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past.  The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal.  It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.

While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks.  For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass.  As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.

There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up.  To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.

  • 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
  • 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
  • 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
  • 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
  • 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
  • 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
  • 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
  • 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe

All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts.  (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)

For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.

Red Sox Place Christan Arroyo On 10-Day Injured List

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  • The Red Sox placed Christian Arroyo on the 10-day IL due to a right knee contusion, with the placement backdated to June 21.  Michael Chavis was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Arroyo left Sunday’s game after a collision with teammate Enrique Hernandez, though x-rays were negative on what the club described as a bone bruise in his right shin.  Arroyo has hit a solid .264/.324/.432 over 138 plate appearances while getting the bulk of playing time at second base this season, though this is his second trip to the IL, after missing two weeks in May with a hand contusion after being hit by a pitch.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/16/21

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The latest minor moves from around the league:

  • The Red Sox announced that right-hander Brandon Brennan has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Worcester. Evidently, he’s accepted the assignment, as Brennan is listed on Worcester’s active roster. Boston designated him for assignment last weekend after he made one MLB appearance, tossing three scoreless innings out of the bullpen. He has a 2.16 ERA in 8 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this year, with eleven strikeouts and five walks.
  • The Yankees announced they’ve activated outfielder Ryan LaMarre from the injured list and passed him through outright waivers. New York selected LaMarre, whom they signed to a minor league deal over the winter, to the roster when Aaron Hicks went down in mid-May. The 32-year-old LaMarre went down with an injury himself just three days later and went on the IL. He’s been outrighted before in his career, so he has the right to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency.

Brewers Claim Ryan Weber

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The Brewers have claimed Ryan Weber off waivers from the Red Sox, and assigned the right-hander to Triple-A.  In another move, the Brewers also announced that right-hander Chad Sobotka was outrighted to Triple-A.

Weber was designated for assignment two days ago by the Red Sox, following a single appearance that saw Weber allow 11 runs to the Blue Jays in 5 2/3 innings of mop-up duty.  It was an ugly end to a three-year tenure in Boston for Weber, who posted a 5.54 ERA over 89 1/3 innings with the Red Sox, starting eight of his 36 games.

Weber’s ability to work as a swingman or multi-inning reliever clearly intrigued the Brewers enough to make a claim.  Weber does have only a career 5.30 ERA, and his low (15.1%) strikeout rate makes him something of an outlier on a Milwaukee pitching staff that tends to favor hurlers who miss a lot of bats.  However, Weber’s 52.3% groundball rate over 163 career innings fits right into a Brewers team with a cumulative 45.6% grounder rate this season, tied for the fifth-best rate of any pitching unit in baseball.

Sobotka came to Milwaukee from Atlanta as part of the Orlando Arcia trade in early April.  Sobotka has yet to see any big league action with his new club, and the right-hander has only pitched 3 2/3 innings for Triple-A Nashville due to a sinus infection.  Sobotka has a 5.36 ERA/4.22 SIERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and 14.2% walk rate over 47 career innings with the Braves from 2018-20.

How Could The Red Sox Approach The Trade Deadline?

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  • The Red Sox probably aren’t likely to acquire “a big flashy name” at this year’s trade deadline, though The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey thinks the team will look for upgrades like “a mid-level pitcher to bolster the rotation and another outfielder or leadoff type,” with that position player preferably being a left-handed hitter.  Of course, top prospect Jarren Duran is a left-handed hitting outfielder, but since Duran is currently slated to play on Team USA at the Olympics, the Red Sox might opt to wait until the Games are over to promote him to the big leagues.  It wasn’t long ago that Michael Chavis was himself a well-regarded prospect in Boston’s farm system, but McCaffrey thinks that Chavis could be a trade candidate.  Chavis has hit only .243/.302/.428 in the majors (albeit in 573 plate appearances, roughly the equal of just one full season) and was a first-round pick in 2014 back when Ben Cherington was the Red Sox GM, so current chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom could be more willing to move on from Chavis.

Mariners Trade Yacksel Rios To Red Sox

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The Mariners announced Monday that they’ve traded right-handed reliever Yacksel Rios to the Red Sox in exchange for cash. Seattle had designated the 27-year-old Rios for assignment over the weekend.

Rios pitched three innings for the Mariners prior to his DFA, allowing a trio of runs on five hits and a pair of walks with two strikeouts. Seattle had only recently acquired him from the Rays in exchange for cash — a deal that came about as a result of an opt-out clause in Rios’ minor league deal with Tampa Bay.

While Rios hasn’t had much success in the Majors, he was lights-out in Triple-A this year, where he yielded just one run on eight hits and two walks with 17 strikeouts through 13 2/3 frames. A 6.47 ERA in 72 1/3 Major League innings gives plenty of reason to be a bit skeptical of that brilliant showing in Durham, but this is basically a no-risk pickup for the Red Sox, who have an open spot on the 40-man roster after designating righty Ryan Weber for assignment earlier in the day.

Red Sox Designate Ryan Weber For Assignment

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The Red Sox have designated right-hander Ryan Weber for assignment, manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other reporters.  Michael Chavis has been called up from Triple-A to take Weber’s spot on the active roster.

Weber’s contract was only just selected from Triple-A yesterday, and his lone appearance for the Sox ended up being a nightmare.  Called into the game after starter Martin Perez was chased in the second inning, Weber was left to soak up innings in mop-up duty, and he allowed 11 runs over 5 2/3 innings in Boston’s 18-4 loss to the Blue Jays.

Now in his third season with the Red Sox, Weber posted a 4.73 ERA/4.66 SIERA over 83 2/3 innings in 2019-20.  Weber is something of a groundball specialist, with a 52.3% grounder rate over his 163 career frames in the majors and only a 15.1% strikeout rate.  He is versatile enough to work as a proper starting pitcher or as a multi-inning swingman type, though with limited effectiveness (Weber has a 5.30 career ERA).

Chavis has been shuttled back and forth a few times this season between Boston’s MLB roster and either the alternate training site or Triple-A Worcester.  Chavis has hit .273/.273/.485 in 33 plate appearances this season, as the former top prospect is still trying to establish himself at the big league level.  He’ll factor into Boston’s bench mix, and some playing time at first base could open up if Bobby Dalbec continues to struggle (though Dalbec has been looking a bit better over his last four games).

Red Sox Select Ryan Weber, Designate Brandon Brennan

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The Red Sox announced they’re selecting the contract of right-hander Ryan Weber. Fellow righty Brandon Brennan has been designated for assignment to open active and 40-man roster space.

Weber makes his return to Boston, where he saw big league action in 2019-20. The sinkerballer pitched to a 4.73 ERA/4.89 FIP in 83 2/3 innings over that time. Weber doesn’t miss many bats, striking out a minuscule 15.3% of opponents with the Red Sox. He’s thrown plenty of strikes and kept the ball on the ground at an above-average clip, though. Weber was outrighted off the roster last offseason and began this year with Triple-A Worcester. He’s made seven appearances (six starts) with Worcester, managing a 4.63 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate and solid 6.8% walk rate.

The Sox claimed Brennan off waivers from the Mariners in early May. He spent his first month in the organization at Worcester, tossing 8 1/3 frames of two-run ball. Brennan struck out eleven against five walks at Triple-A, earning him a call-up yesterday. The 29-year-old worked three scoreless innings out of the bullpen in last night’s loss to the Blue Jays. Unfortunately for Brennan, his 42-pitch workload took him out of commission for the next day or two. The Red Sox ultimately decided to bring in a fresher arm in his place.

Boston will have a week to trade Brennan or place him on outright waivers. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another club bring him in. A former Rule 5 draftee, Brennan has a 4.21 ERA/4.61 SIERA over 57 2/3 MLB innings.

Matt Barnes Open To In-Season Extension Talks

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Red Sox closer Matt Barnes is in the midst of a career year at the perfect time, with free agency looming just a few months down the road. However, while many free-agents-to-be  set an Opening Day deadline for extension talks with their current club, Barnes made clear this week that he’s “absolutely” open to talking about a new contract during the season (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Barnes added that while the two sides talked during Spring Training and even exchanged numbers, the Red Sox haven’t made an offer since.

Barnes, 31 next week, has the second-highest strikeout rate among all qualified relievers at a whopping 49.5 percent, trailing only division rival Aroldis Chapman for the MLB lead. He’s worked 26 1/3 innings for the Sox this season and notched a tidy 2.73 ERA but with an even better 1.36 FIP and 1.33 SIERA.

Barnes has long been a solid late-inning option with well above-average strikeouts, but he’s taken his game to new heights in 2021. The breakout isn’t accompanied by a major uptick in fastball velocity or spin rate — both are actually down a bit from 2019 — or by the implementation of a new pitch.

The biggest change for Barnes looks attributable to the best command the right-hander has ever had. His 7.4 percent walk rate is far and away the lowest of his career. Barnes walked 12.7 percent of his opponents from 2018-20, but he’s slashed that this season in large part by emphasizing strike one; he’d thrown a first-pitch strike at just a 58 percent clip in his career prior to 2021, but that number has skyrocketed to 72.6 percent this season — a mark that ranks fourth-best among 182 qualified relievers. He’s inducing chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a career-high 37.6 percent, and his opponents’ 46.5 percent contact rate on those chases is the second-best mark of his career (trailing his 44.4 percent mark in 2018).

This is the best version of Barnes that the Red Sox have seen, and his breakthrough has no doubt played a role in the Red Sox beating virtually all preseason expectations with a 37-25 record with nearly 40 percent of the season in the books. Barnes is tied for fifth in Major League Baseball with 14 saves, has only blown two opportunities this season, and has only been scored upon in five of his 26 appearances.

All of that positions Barnes quite nicely as the open market looms. There’s no established, dominant presence among this winter’s group, which leaves Barnes looking like a candidate to hit the market as the top name available. Fellow breakout right Kendall Graveman could give him some competition in that regard, but Barnes is undeniably well-positioned for the time being.

Barnes is earning every bit of a $4.5MM salary thus far in 2021, but he’d obviously be in line for a sizable raise on that rate over a multi-year deal in free agency. This past offseason wasn’t a great year for relievers as a whole. Only Liam Hendriks topped two years in length or $9MM in annual value (on a multi-year deal). His $54MM guarantee from the White Sox is one of the largest sums ever promised to a reliever, but Blake Treinen’s two-year, $17.5MM deal was the next-largest contract for any bullpen arm.

A year prior, the top bullpen arms on the market were lefties Will Smith (three years, $40MM) and Drew Pomeranz (four years, $34MM). In 2018-19 we saw each of Joe Kelly, Adam Ottavino, Familia and Zack Britton score three-year pacts with average annual values ranging from $8-13MM.

If Barnes can sustain this output, history suggests he’d be able to target seeking a contract of at least three years in free agency. An annual salary approaching or even exceeding $10MM — perhaps by a decent margin — wouldn’t seem outlandish if he continues punching out nearly half of his opponents. Barnes’ track record of this level of dominance is relatively short, but that was also true of many of the relievers who cashed in over the past three offseasons (Hendriks and Pomeranz chief among them).

There’s no indication that the Red Sox are planning a run at extending Barnes just yet. Luxury-tax concerns have underscored nearly every move the team has made for the past couple years. That said, Sox are under the line this year and could structure any contract as a new deal beginning in 2022 so as not to impact their 2021 bottom line (as they did when extending Chris Sale a couple years back). The Red Sox have about $127MM in luxury-tax obligations on the 2022 ledger, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Critically, we don’t know what the luxury barrier will be in 2022 or if the luxury-tax system will even exist in its current state. That, of course is dependent on the ongoing collective bargaining talks. Whatever happens, Barnes made clear the ball is in the team’s court.

“We haven’t had any discussions since spring training,” said Barnes. “If the Red Sox want to make an offer and they want to start those conversations… I’ve always been a firm believer that listening to information is always free.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/7/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Reds righty Hector Perez cleared waivers and was outrighted off their roster, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Perez, who celebrated his 25th birthday on Sunday, had been in limbo since the Reds designated him on June 2. He began this year by pitching to a 9.35 ERA in 8 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level before his designation.

Earlier:

  • The Red Sox outrighted Colten Brewer to Triple-A after the right-hander cleared waivers.  Brewer was designated for assignment last Thursday.  After a pretty solid 2019 season out of Boston’s bullpen, Brewer has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 frames over the last two years, including a single inning of work this season that saw him allow four earned runs.
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