- Star Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts discussed his approach to handling the business side of the sport, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Betts says he believes in staying patient. “When you start rushing into things, that’s when you get some deals that may not be the right ones,” he said. Of course, Betts has to this point set himself up for a potentially record-setting run through arbitration by not only going year-to-year, but by also increasing his performance level in successive seasons. He just settled for a whopping $20MM, setting a record for a second-time arb-eligible player. Whether he’ll consider a long-term deal in the future isn’t clear; Betts would allow only that he enjoys playing in Boston and would “have to see how it goes.”
Red Sox Rumors
Doug Fister Retires
Veteran right-hander Doug Fister has elected to call it a career after spending parts of 10 seasons in the Majors, agent Page Odle tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Fister, 35, received multiple Major League contract offers this winter, according to Odle, but is instead making a “100 percent family-driven” decision to spend time with his wife and two children.
A seventh-round pick of the Mariners back in 2006, Fister ascended to the Majors as a largely unheralded prospect with the Mariners in 2009. After establishing himself as a quality starter over his first 378 frames with the Mariners, Fister was flipped to the Tigers in a 2011 trade deadline deal, where he’d go on to thrive over another three seasons. Fister, in fact, was somewhat quietly one of the game’s better starters from 2011-14, pitching to a 3.11 ERA (129 ERA+) with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9.
A 2015 forearm strain led to diminished velocity and diminished results for Fister, though he managed to make 32 starts for the 2016 Astros and served as a stabilizing force in their rotation. Hip and knee injuries slowed Fister in his most recent run with the Rangers, with the latter of the two issues ultimately ending his season after 66 innings.
All in all, Fister will walk away from his baseball career with a lifetime 83-92 record, a 3.72 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 1422 1/3 big league innings. The towering 6’8″ righty also amassed an impressive postseason resume, tallying 56 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 41-to-17 K/BB ratio in five separate postseasons runs (three with the Tigers, one with the Nats and one with the Red Sox). He made one World Series start, with the Tigers in ’12, where he tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Giants.
Fister earned more than $36MM in player salaries over the life of a career that both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs value at 20 wins above replacement. Best wishes to the former Tigers, Mariners, Nationals, Astros, Red Sox and Rangers righty in his life beyond baseball.
Red Sox Still Shopping Catchers, Seeking Rotation Depth
As pitchers and catchers report, the Red Sox are still looking to swing some deals to tweak their personnel mix in those areas. According to Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (subscription link), the organization is dangling its three backstops in trade talks while hoping to find rotation depth in return.
It’s hardly surprising to hear that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is looking to move a catcher. After all, he made clear weeks ago that the team had little interest in carrying Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart on the Opening Day roster.
Nevertheless, this news is worth noting. For one thing, it’s interesting that the Boston organization is still actively engaged even with camp opening. It could instead have decided to let the situation play out before considering options just before the start of the season.
Of somewhat greater import, though, is the concept that the Red Sox are looking to boost their stockpile of starters. That’s the aim of any organization, generally speaking. But that same fact makes it rather difficult to imagine that a rival team will be particularly inclined to move passable arms — particularly given the meager output of the Boston catching trio last year and the fact that the Red Sox have already broadcast their roster intentions.
Some might argue that the club ought to focus instead on its bullpen, which seems a notably risky area of an obviously talented roster. That’s perhaps a bit of a red herring, though, as any rotation depth asset could also help (directly or indirectly) with the relief unit and the club surely knows it won’t be able to swap any of its three catchers for anything approaching a premium reliever.
It’s far from clear which of those three backstops the Sox are most inclined to move. Perhaps the market will still dictate the decision to an extent, though now the club is watching the three in uniform once again and surely has its own ideas. Dombrowski said in January that Swihart would “come to camp trying to compete to be our starting catcher,” while the team previously showed its belief in Vazquez by inking him to an extension. Perhaps that makes Leon the odd man out, but he wouldn’t likely draw significant interest in trade talks and he’s also considered a much more reliable defender than Swihart.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Perhaps it would not be entirely surprising if the Red Sox simply end up designating one of these out-of-options players for assignment when the time comes. Then again, Dombrowski said previously that the club was waiting to “mak[e] a trade we feel good about,” seemingly indicating he believed there would be sufficient interest from other organizations to reap at least some kind of return.
Red Sox To Sign Brian Ellington
In yet another item on what has turned into Boston bullpen night here at MLBTR, the Red Sox have reportedly struck a deal with flamethrowing righty Brian Ellington. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link), the 28-year-old receives a minors pact; it’s unknown whether it includes a spring invite.
Like several of the team’s other recent, low-cost pen additions, Ellington is long on tools but lacks an established track record of success at the MLB level. He owns a 4.65 ERA in 102 2/3 career frames in the majors. Ellington was dropped early in 2018 by the Marlins and didn’t last long with the Diamondbacks organization after being added on a minors deal.
Ellington has averaged a whopping 98.5 mph with his average fastball in those innings, helping him to generate an 11.4% swinging-strike rate despite infrequent use of offspeed offerings. But he has also handed out free passes like candy in the majors (5.6 per nine). Both player and team will surely enter camp hoping to find a way to harness Ellington’s arm strength.
A Closer Look At The Red Sox And The Luxury Tax
The Red Sox’ bullpen — or, really, its lack of fortification this offseason — has garnered plenty of recent attention. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has not only downplayed the possibility of a reunion with Craig Kimbrel but also the addition of any notable arm. While Dombrowski has stated that there’s no mandate to remain south of the top luxury tax border, it also seems increasingly likely (if not apparent) that that’s exactly what the team is planning to do. Most onlookers have at least a cursory awareness of what that entails, but I felt it worth a deeper look to see exactly what the Sox are deeming the theoretical breaking point — if they are indeed set on avoiding that barrier.
This isn’t necessarily a call for the Red Sox to spend more, to be clear. Boston is poised to carry Major League Baseball’s highest payroll for the second consecutive season and stomached the hit when they incurred top-level luxury penalization last year. This offseason, ownership green-lit a $68MM expenditure on Nathan Eovaldi and another $6.25MM on Steve Pearce. The Sox have hardly refused to spend. Every team, though, has its limit, and at the very least Boston seems close to that point.
At present, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has the Red Sox with a 2019 payroll of $238,373,928. That’s how much money they’ll pay out to players — those on the roster and those either no longer on the 40-man (Rusney Castillo) or no longer even in the organization (Pablo Sandoval).
For the purposes of the luxury tax (labeled as the Competitive Balance Tax in baseball’s collective bargaining agreement), however, payroll is calculated by the average annual value of the contracts for which a team is responsible (in addition to a set level of player benefit costs, which include medical costs, moving/travel expenses, etc.). Jason has Boston’s luxury tax payroll (“actual” payroll, as termed in the CBA) projected at $241,269,197. Those numbers, both the 2019 payroll and the “actual” payroll, are estimates and aren’t exact, but they’re both close approximations that provide a reasonably accurate depiction of what the organization’s expenses currently entail. Before delving further into what additional spending would mean for the Red Sox, it’s important to note what those numbers mean for the team’s current taxation penalties.
For the 2019 season, the luxury tax line has been set at $206MM. Even without re-signing Eovaldi and Pearce, the Sox were always going to be well north of that line. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a second-time offender — the Red Sox were over the luxury line in 2018 but stayed shy of it in 2017 — will pay a 30 percent tax on the first $20MM over the initial luxury line. Teams are subject to an additional 12 percent tax on the next $20MM spent. If a team crosses the luxury limit by more than $40MM, it will pay an additional 45 percent tax from that point forward and also see its top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 spots. Put otherwise:
- $206MM to $226MM: 30 percent tax (a total of $6MM)
- $226MM to $246MM: 42 percent tax (a total of $8.4MM)
- $246M or more: 75 percent tax and a loss of 10 spots in the following year’s draft
Using Jason’s figures above, the Red Sox are paying the full $6MM of that first level and are $15,269,197 into the second level of tax penalization. That sum is taxed at a 42 percent rate, meaning the Sox are paying a $6,413,063 tax on it. At present, then, the Red Sox are committed to paying about $12.413MM worth of luxury tax penalties. There’s a $4,730,803 gap between their current projection and the $246MM top luxury line. If they were to, theoretically, add another reliever for a dollar less in order to avoid top-level penalization, the Red Sox would be taxed an additional $1,986,937. Of course, that’d leave them unable to make a single in-season addition should the need arise.
That, however, is the gripe for many critics. A bullpen headlined by Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, Tyler Thornburg and Brian Johnson seems quite likely to necessitate trade-deadline augmentation — and that’s before even allowing for the possibility of an injury to a key player that would also require a trade acquisition. It’s not only possible that the Red Sox will have crossed the top luxury line by the time the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has passed — it seems downright likely. Perhaps the plan is to find trade acquisitions whose salaries can be largely paid down by their current team, but doing so would require paying up a greater premium in terms of prospects and thus weaken an already thin farm system.
Should paying more in terms of prospects be preferable to lessening the 2020 draft budget? Some might argue that it’s preferable to go ahead and commit to taking the draft hit in order to gain the advantages of a bolstered bullpen from the start of the season. After all, the division is hardly a shoo-in and the Sox obviously have designs at chasing an elusive repeat title. But what does that actually mean from a financial standpoint?
For the sake of argument, let’s take a look at what the Red Sox would have to pay in order to sign Kimbrel at the four-year, $70MM term projected by MLBTR in our Top 50 Free Agent Predictions back in November. In trying to peg Kimbrel’s eventual contract, Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd and I all felt that Kimbrel would seek to top Aroldis Chapman’s record guarantee (which he reportedly has indeed pursued) but ultimately fall shy and instead, ahem, “settle” for breaking Wade Davis’ $17.33MM annual salary record for a reliever over a four-year term. Kimbrel may very well fall shy of our $70MM prediction, but he could still set a new AAV standard with a three-year, $52.5MM deal. Even a one-year deal at the $17.5MM level would come with the same CBT hit for 2019. For purposes of this hypothetical, that seems a reasonable figure to work with.
If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself.
Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge.
That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.
Boiled down, any relief addition for the Red Sox with an annual salary north of the $4,703,803 gap that exists between their current “actual” payroll and the $246MM luxury line could be viewed as such (where X = the average annual value of a new contract):
(X – 4,703,803) + (X – 4,703,803)*0.75 + 6,690,740 = Total 2019 expenditure
All of that, of course, is before even acknowledging the 10-spot drop they’d face in the draft for a second consecutive season. There’s no way of knowing precisely how much the Sox would be costing themselves in the 2020 draft, or even how much they stand to lose in the 2019 draft after crossing the top level last year, as 2019 slot values aren’t yet known. However, dropping from No. 30 in 2018 to No. 40 (the drop they’re facing this year) would have resulted in a loss of $489,500 in the team’s draft pool. Draft slot values increase incrementally each season, and the Red Sox’ exact placement in the draft order obviously can’t be known. But generally speaking, the Sox would be looking at a 10-spot drop and a loss of at least $500K in their 2020 draft pool.
Clearly, the price to add a reliever of any significance will be steep for Boston — possibly more so than most would expect before truly diving into the math behind further additions. That said, it’s still worth questioning the Red Sox’ decision to draw a line in the sand at this juncture. The current state of the ’pen makes it seem likely that Boston will need to add a reliever during the season anyhow, and that could still put the team over the limit while also costing prospects.
Beyond that, this it’s quite likely that this is the last time Boston will ever enjoy the Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez all on the same roster. Sale and Bogaerts are free agents after the 2019 season, and Martinez has an opt-out provision that he’ll presumably exercise if he produces anywhere near his 2018 levels. Add in the fact that Mookie Betts can become a free agent after the 2020 season — though the Sox surely hope to extend their franchise player — and there’s all the more urgency for Boston to go all out in its pursuit of another championship.
Further spending truly doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Boston, though perhaps they’ll be able to secure one of the market’s remaining relievers at a modest $2-3MM commitment that’d still allow them to avoid the top line. But the Sox look like they’re genuinely poised to enter the season with a glaring weakness — one that’ll be tough to account for during the season. While the staggering level of taxation they’d have had to pay on another notable ’pen arm (or two) makes their reluctance understandable, that’ll still be a tough sell to fans if the current group of relievers doesn’t exceed expectations in dramatic fashion. It’s an illustration of the potency of the current luxury tax rules — though, of course, the payrolls of virtually every other team in baseball presently reside comfortably out of range of this level of penalties.
Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler
The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.
A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level.
Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.
Boston fans clamoring for some bullpen help likely won’t be appeased by this addition, any more than they were by the club’s prior winter moves. Runzler joins Colten Brewer, Zach Putnam, and Jenrry Mejia as low-risk relief candidates that have been brought on board this winter.
Red Sox Confident In Several In-House Bullpen Options
The Red Sox have been surprisingly silent on the bullpen market this winter despite the fact that Joe Kelly has left for the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned — seemingly likely to land with another organization as well, based on comments from Boston president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), however, that the Sox are confident in a number of internal options. Recent draftees Travis Lakins (sixth round, 2015) and Durbin Feltman (third round, 2018) could both emerge at the MLB level in 2019, while many in the Red Sox’ analytics department are intrigued by trade pickup Colten Brewer (whom the Sox tried to acquire last summer as well, Olney notes). Tyler Thornburg represents a notable bounceback option, as well. It’s nonetheless jarring to see the Sox take a passive approach to rounding out the ’pen on the heels of a World Series championship. Perhaps there’s yet another move in store with several relievers still available (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), but it seems likely that the Boston ’pen will have to prove its share of naysayers wrong in 2019.
Red Sox To Sign Jenrry Mejia
The Red Sox have inked a minor-league deal with former MLB reliever Jenrry Mejia, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). He’ll head to Spring Training (though not MLB camp, Heyman notes) in search of a comeback from a lengthy absence — one that was occasioned by his own incredibly poor decisionmaking. The contract would pay him $625K in the Majors, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.
Mejia, of course, was once a key late-inning reliever for the Mets. That all changed when he was mind-numbingly popped for PED-related violations on three occasions, leading to a lifetime ban. While commissioner Rob Manfred ultimately lifted that prohibition, Mejia is now long removed from his big league career. The 29-year-old last appeared on the MLB mound in the middle of the 2015 season.
Before he cost himself a major chunk of his prime, Mejia had shown some interesting abilities on the bump. After failing to exhibit quite enough as a starter to earn a full chance in the New York rotation, he slid comfortably into the team’s bullpen in 2014. Over 56 1/3 relief innings that year, he worked to a 2.72 ERA with a 60:21 K/BB ratio. Mejia ultimately took the closer’s job, locking down 28 games.
Just what’s left in the tank isn’t known, but the Red Sox will take a shot on the talent of the enigmatic right-hander. That the defending World Series champs have now added Mejia while otherwise waiting out the relief market is sure to draw some curious glances, from both fans who’d like to see more additions and from those on the players side that believe teams need to be spending more money. Obviously, this sort of move will not itself preclude the Boston powerhouse from making further acquisitions, but the timing certainly creates some interesting juxtapositions.
Cuban Shortstop Yolbert Sanchez Cleared To Sign With MLB Teams
Shortstop Yolbert Sanchez has left Cuba and has been cleared by Major League Baseball to sign with teams beginning on Feb. 5, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs report. The 21-year-old (22 in March) will be subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system.
Sanchez’s stats in his limited professional experience won’t wow anyone — he’s a .297/.338/.345 hitter in 435 plate appearances — but McDaniel and Longenhagen nonetheless paint him as a likely seven-figure bonus recipient due to his raw speed, glovework at shortstop and arm strength — each of which are considered by scouts to be anywhere from above average to plus. Their report notes that scouts view him as the type of prospect who’ll typically command a bonus between $2-4MM.
Certainly, that bodes well for the Orioles, who still have upwards of $6MM in their international bonus pool after whiffing on prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr. and Sandy Gaston when the trio signed early in the 2018-19 offseason (the Mesa brothers with the Marlins; Gaston with the Rays).
Of course, the mere fact that the Orioles presently have the most money at their disposal doesn’t by any means make Baltimore a lock to sign Sanchez. The O’s, after all, had the ability to make larger offers to the Mesa brothers and Gaston but did not ultimately ink any of the trio. It’s also possible that they don’t view Sanchez as a prospect who should command such an investment — or at least that they don’t like him to the same extent as another organization with millions remaining in its bonus pool. Beyond that, Sanchez could technically opt to wait until July 2 to sign, at which point bonus pools would reset and present him with a vastly larger list of suitors.
While Baltimore is the runaway leader in remaining pool space, McDaniel and Longenhagen write that the Dodgers, Cubs and Phillies are among the teams with the most resources remaining. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez adds the Cardinals to the mix, noting that St. Louis has an estimated $1.85MM remaining in its pool. Sanchez pegs the Dodgers at about $1.4MM, the Phillies at roughly $1MM and the Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox in the $750-800K range. Sanchez will hold workouts for teams later this week in the Dominican Republic, per Fangraphs’ report.
Latest On Tyler Thornburg
- Speaking of injured hurlers from the division, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox righty Tyler Thornburg began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual this winter, adding that Thornburg’s shoulder has “tested out well” in the early-going. Boston has done nothing to address its bullpen this offseason after Joe Kelly left to sign with the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel hit the open market, and if that pattern holds, they’ll need Thornburg and others to step up and contribute more than most would’ve expected heading into the offseason. Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently went on record to suggest that he doesn’t anticipate spending heavily on a closer, and recent reports have implied that the Sox may prefer to remain south of the top luxury tax line.
