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Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Select Mike Shawaryn’s Contract, Place Hector Velazquez On 10-Day IL

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The Red Sox announced a pair of roster moves Thursday, including the placement of right-hander Hector Velazquez on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back strain.  Taking Velazquez’s place is fellow right-hander Mike Shawaryn, who will reach the Major Leagues for the first time after having his contract selected from Triple-A Pawtucket.  No 40-man move was required, as Boston had an extra roster spot available.

Velazquez posted good bottom-line results as a swingman in 2018, with a 3.18 ERA over 85 innings (39 relief appearances, eight starts).  ERA predictors took a much dimmer view of Velazquez’s performance, however, as a 4.15 FIP, 4.63 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA reflected a modest 5.61 K/9.  While Velazquez struck out more batters this season, his walk rate rose and grounder rate diminished, resulting in a 5.97 ERA over 34 2/3 innings, with seven of his 18 appearances coming as a starting pitcher.

Shawaryn will provide the Sox with some extra rotation depth with Nathan Eovaldi still on the IL and Ryan Weber filling in as the fifth starter.  Given the uncertainty in Boston’s bullpen, there’s certainly room for opportunity for Shawryn to stick in the big leagues if he performs well.

A fifth-round pick out of the University of Maryland in the 2016 draft, Shawaryn has started 67 of his 68 games as a professional, posting a 3.60 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 3.05 K/BB rate over 355 1/3 innings.  Shawaryn is credited with a 60-grade slider by MLB.com, which lists the 24-year-old as the 12th-best prospect in Boston’s farm system.  As per the site’s scouting report, Shawaryn “has a high floor, appearing to be a good bet to at least become a multi-inning reliever who could live off his slider.”

Red Sox Place Mitch Moreland On IL, Change Bullpen Mix

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. First baseman Mitch Moreland is headed to the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain, helping to free up roster space for some tweaks to the team’s bullpen mix.

Lefty Josh Taylor will be promoted for his first taste of the majors. He had already been added to the 40-man roster last fall to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. The Sox also sent down Travis Lakins after his tough outing last night, recalling fellow right-hander Colten Brewer.

Moreland had been down for a few days already, though his absence had been attributed to a knee contusion. He has also dealt with minor back issues in the recent past. Rather than pushing him to return, the Sox will allow the left-handed-hitting first bagger some time to recuperate.

Thus far at Triple-A, Taylor carries a 2.91 ERA with 29 strikeouts and nine walks. The 26-year-old gives the Sox a much-needed southpaw presence in their relief unit. As we discussed earlier this morning, the Boston pen has struggled to retire opposing lefty hitters. Taylor has actually struggled quite a bit against lefty hitters this year in the highest level of the minors, surrendering a cumulative .286/.364/.500 batting line, though he has carried more typical platoon splits in prior seasons.

Red Sox Bullpen Facing Renewed Questions

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It’s easy to overreact to bullpen implosions, particularly when they cost a team a seemingly surefire lead. Last night’s meltdown at Fenway not only cost the Red Sox a win, but played to some of the major fears entering the season.

As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the collapse against a tepid Indians lineup featured messy appearances from Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, and Travis Lakins. While Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes weren’t charged with any runs, they didn’t really help with the ugliest stat line to emerge from the evening: the Boston pen recorded just one strikeout against seven walks.

The bullpen was the source of much consternation when camp broke. In particular, many worried about the failure to add established arms to a late-inning unit that bid adieu to closer Craig Kimbrel.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in reviewing the club’s offseason efforts, the “nightmare scenario” some posited was an overreaction. But he also noted that the decision not to bring in additional high-leverage arms — which would also have deepened the middle relief unit — was a “risky strategy.” After all, Polishuk reasoned, “settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox” in a tight division race.

Every win matters, and it’d always be preferable to have another elite arm to call upon. But after observing the Boston relief unit for one-third of the season, it’s hard to call it a problem. Combined, the group carries a solid 3.92 ERA that ranks in the top third leaguewide. Fielding-independent pitching metrics concur with that general placement.

Have things gotten worse of late? The unit has recorded as many blown saves in the past two weeks (4) as have the Nationals, but other teams have more and that’s not necessarily a worthwhile metric to go by in evaluating overall bullpen health. Despite grading in the middle of the pack on the season, Sox relievers have suddenly become walk-happy over the past two weeks with a league-worst 13.3% BB rate. Still, that seems like a short-sample blip. Overall results have actually ticked up over the past month, with the relief corps combining for a 3.21 ERA.

If a true, overarching issue has cropped up it may relate to Ryan Brasier. Expected to function as a core part of the high-leverage group after last year’s surprise emergence, Brasier has fallen on hard times of late. As Speier notes, the righty has been tagged for five long balls in his last 22 2/3 innings of action. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com looked further at Brasier’s struggles.

But even if Brasier has stepped back, the Red Sox have seen others emerge. Barnes has doubled down on his strong 2018 season. Though he’s allowing too many walks, Workman has done the same, carrying stepped-up swinging-strike and strikeout numbers. And Walden has been excellent in his first full season in the majors, with a pleasing mix of K’s and grounders to support a 2.05 ERA.

To be sure, the remainder of the outfit isn’t as strong, but that’s a nice trio. Heath Hembree has been useful and Brasier still holds out hope of a bounceback. The team’s rotating cast of other relief pitchers has yet to find sustained success, but that’s a common issue around the league.

It’s certainly not difficult to see the merits of a mid-season acquisition or two. But really, who didn’t see that coming for a team that obviously prioritized other areas in the offseason? What’s more surprising is that the assembled group has performed so well for such a sustained stretch. Most any relief unit will produce moments like last night; plenty of others haven’t been capable of the sturdy results produced to this point by Boston’s hurlers.

Better still, further improvement might be found without a budget or farm-busting move for a high-end closer. The one area where the righty-heavy Sox have clearly struggled is in retiring opposing left-handed hitters. The relief unit has been tagged for a 5.31 ERA and 1.70 HR/9 by southpaw batters. Adding even one quality situational lefty could help smooth out this bump and make it easier for skipper Alex Cora to get the ball to his most reliable relievers in the late innings.

Dustin Pedroia Unsure If He’ll Play Again

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The Red Sox shifted injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day IL on Monday after he suffered yet another setback in his problematic left knee. Pedroia met with reporters to discuss his future, revealing he’s unsure if he’ll be able to resume his career.

“I’m at a point right now where I need some time. That’s what my status is,” Pedroia told Rob Bradford of WEEI and other media. Asked if he’ll play again, Pedroia said, “I’m not sure.”

One thing is clear, according to Pedroia: Another surgical procedure is off the table. The 35-year-old has gone under the knife twice dating back to October 2016, but neither knee surgery has helped him stay on the field. Pedroia missed all but three regular-season games during Boston’s World Series-winning campaign in 2018 and has only appeared in six this year.

With it looking as if Pedroia won’t play again in 2019, he’s set to take an “indefinite break” from rehabbing his knee – which he doesn’t believe will ever heal (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com).

“Time will go on and I’ll know more about it,” Pedroia said. “I haven’t sat down and thought about retirement. I just know that right now I need a break from the everyday stresses of dealing with what I’m dealing with.”

If we have seen the last of Pedroia on the diamond, it’ll mark the end of a borderline Hall of Fame career. A second-round pick of the Red Sox in 2004, the diminutive Pedroia burst on the scene in 2007, his first full season, en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. All he has done since then is win an AL MVP (2008), earn four All-Star nods and help the Red Sox to two World Series championships, among other accomplishments. To this point, Pedroia’s a .299/.365/.439 hitter (115 wRC+) with 140 home runs, 138 stolen bases and 51.7 rWAR/46.7 fWAR.

Thanks to the brilliance Pedroia displayed over his first several seasons, the Red Sox signed him to an eight-year, $110MM extension in July of 2013. Including this season’s $15MM salary, he’s still owed $40MM on that deal through 2021. Now, six years after Pedroia inked the first-ever nine-figure pact for a second baseman, his playing career may be over.

Red Sox Activate Brock Holt, Move Dustin Pedroia To 60-Day IL

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The Red Sox have activated infielder Brock Holt from the 10-day injured list and transferred second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day IL, per a club announcement. The team also optioned left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez to Double-A Portland.

Holt’s back after eye and shoulder injuries caused a nearly two-month absence. Since Holt went to the IL on April 6, the Red Sox have seen rookie Michael Chavis emerge at the former’s main position (second base). However, Chavis will concede the keystone to Holt on Monday and line up at first.

Given his defensive versatility, playing time shouldn’t be hard to come by for Holt. The 30-year-old has seen significant action at several positions during his career, and he also enjoyed one of his most productive offensive seasons in 2018. As part of the franchise’s latest title-winning team, Holt batted .277/.362/.411 (109 wRC+) with seven home runs and steals apiece in 367 plate appearances.

Pedroia’s ongoing left knee issues have made Holt all the more valuable to the Red Sox, who have gone without the former for all but nine games since last season. Pedroia didn’t debut until April 9 this year, and he ended up back on the IL eight days later. The 35-year-old had been rehabbing his knee in the minors, but he suffered a setback on Friday. Now, because the Red Sox shifted him to the 60-day IL, Pedroia won’t be able to return for at least another few weeks. That could prove to be an overly optimistic forecast, though.

Red Sox Notes: Price, Pedroia, Holt, Eovaldi

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Red Sox left-hander David Price exited his start in Houston on Saturday after facing just three hitters, according to reporters. Price was “laboring” during his abbreviated outing and saw his fastball top out around 90 mph, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic tweets. It’s a notable decline for Price, who entered the start averaging 92.4 mph on his fastball. Furthermore, this was just Price’s second game since he missed two weeks on account of elbow inflammation. [UPDATE: The Red Sox announced that Price left because of flu-like symptoms.]

Here’s more out of Boston, courtesy of Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (links here):

  • The Red Sox are shutting down injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia after he suffered a setback during a Double-A rehab game Friday. Boston will reevaluate Pedroia, whose oft-problematic left knee sent him to the injured list April 18, on Monday. Manager Alex Cora admitted this is “another red flag” for the 35-year-old Pedroia, who appeared in a meager three games during the Red Sox’s World Series-winning 2018 campaign and has only played in six this season. He remains a ways off from potentially factoring back into Boston’s lineup, Cotillo observes. If there’s a silver lining to Pedroia’s absence, it’s the emergence of second baseman Michael Chavis, a 23-year-old rookie who has taken the position and run with it so far.
  • While Pedroia’s nowhere close to returning, Boston’s position player group will add depth Sunday when injured utility player Brock Holt comes off the IL. Eye and shoulder issues have kept Holt out of the major league mix since April 5 and limited him to six games and 19 plate appearances. But the 30-year-old is only a season removed from slashing .277/.362/.411 (109 wRC+) and totaling 1.4 fWAR over 367 PA, a span in which he lined up all over the diamond (primarily second).
  • Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is “coming along quickly” in his recovery from late-April elbow surgery, Cotillo writes. Eovaldi threw a bullpen session Saturday, his second since going under the knife, and could either throw a multi-inning sim game or embark on a rehab assignment next, per Cotillo. One of Boston’s second-half heroes in 2018, the 29-year-old Eovaldi got off to a rough start this season even before surgery, managing a 6.00 ERA/6.99 FIP with 6.86 K/9 and 4.71 BB/9 in 21 innings (four starts). Eovaldi’s in the first season of a four-year, $67.5MM contract, making his early 2019 struggles all the more alarming.

Red Sox Activate David Price From Injured List

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The Red Sox announced that they’ve reinstated left-hander David Price from the 10-day injured list. He’ll start this afternoon’s game against the Blue Jays. Boston also reinstated catcher Sandy Leon from paternity leave and, in a pair of corresponding moves, optioned catcher Oscar Hernandez and righty Josh Smith to Triple-A Pawtucket.

Price’s stay on the injured list due to elbow tendinitis proved to only be a couple of weeks long. His return is nevertheless notable, as Boston has had to patch together its rotation with both Price and Nathan Eovaldi on the shelf due to injury. In recent weeks, the Sox have turned to Smith and fellow righty Hector Velazquez to start games (without receiving much in the way of quality results).

Price will join Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez in the top four spots of the rotation, though the fifth spot will remain somewhat of a question mark until Eovaldi returns from an April 21 elbow procedure that was expected to sideline him for up to six weeks. In 36 innings so far in 2019, Price has a 3.75 ERA with a 42-to-10 K/BB ratio. Although his velocity isn’t quite what it once was, averaging 92.3 mph, Price’s 13.6 percent swinging-strike rate marks a four-percent increase over his 2018 level and would represent a career-high if he can sustain it.

Koji Uehara Retires

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Veteran reliever Koji Uehara has retired, Jim Allen of the Kyodo News reports. The 44-year-old Uehara last pitched in the majors in 2017, after which he returned to his native Japan to join the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. It proved to be a full-circle move by Uehara, who began and ended his career with Yomiuri.

Uehara was often dominant as a starter for Yomiuri from 1999-2006 before mostly working out of the Giants’ bullpen from 2007-08. The right-hander then headed to the majors in 2009 when he signed a two-year, $10MM contract with the Orioles, who initially deployed him as a starter.

Uehara transitioned to the Orioles’ bullpen in 2010 and began a lengthy run as one of the majors’ most effective relievers. During a six-season, 324-inning span from 2010-15, Uehara’s pristine command helped him place first among relievers in two key categories – BB/9 (1.19) and K/BB ratio (9.56) – as well as seventh in ERA (2.08) and 19th in K/9 (11.42).

While Uehara’s major league excellence began with Baltimore, his tenure there was short-lived. The club traded him to the Rangers in July 2011 for reliever Tommy Hunter and a then-unproven slugger named Chris Davis, who later became the highest-paid Oriole ever and remains with the franchise today. Meanwhile, Texas clinched playoff berths in both of Uehara’s seasons with the team and won the American League the year it acquired him, though it wound up losing a classic seven-game World Series to the Cardinals.

Uehara returned to the World Series in 2013 with the Red Sox, who inked him to a one-year, $4.25MM contract prior to the season. It’s safe to say that deal ranks among the wisest the Red Sox have ever doled out, as it began a fruitful four-year union between the sides. Uehara was never greater than during his first year in Boston, where he logged 74 1/3 regular-season innings of 1.09 ERA ball and 12.23 K/9 against 1.09 BB/9. That brilliance carried into the playoffs, where Uehara earned ALCS MVP honors after combining for six shutout innings in a six-game victory over the Tigers. Uehara then totaled another 4 2/3 scoreless frames during the Red Sox’s World Series triumph over the Cardinals, whom he closed out in Game 6.

Although Uehara was never part of another title-winning team, he remained a quality reliever throughout his major league career – which concluded with a one-year stint with the Cubs. Across Baltimore, Texas, Boston and Chicago, the one-time All-Star produced 480 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball with 10.7 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and 95 saves, leading to upward of $50MM in earnings.

As great as Uehara was in the majors, he’s even more accomplished in his homeland. Uehara registered a 3.02 ERA and a 112-67 record over 312 appearances and 205 starts with Yomiuri, where he earned a slew of personal and team awards. MLBTR congratulates Uehara on two outstanding decades in pro baseball and wishes him the best moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox To Activate David Price On Monday

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  • Red Sox left-hander David Price will come off the IL to start Monday, manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Price will end up missing exactly two weeks after heading to the shelf with elbow tendinitis May 6. Before that, Price followed up last fall’s playoff heroics with a 3.75 ERA/3.42 FIP and a career-high 10.5 K/9 across 36 frames.
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