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Latest On Tim Hudson

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Tim Hudson had the surgical screw removed from his injured right ankle yesterday and should be cleared to run within a couple of weeks, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). Hudson's recovery is on schedule, according to O'Brien. Earlier in the week it was reported that Hudson has an offer to return to Atlanta, but as many as eight teams have already reached out. Here's the latest on the longtime Brave as he and agent Paul Cohen of TWC Sports test the free agent market…

  • Despite already having six starters for five spots, the Red Sox "really want" Hudson, a person familiar with the team's thinking told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman adds that the Braves still value Hudson as a veteran in a surprisingly young clubhouse.
  • Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that the interest is mutual between Hudson and the Red Sox. Hudson is close with catcher David Ross and wants to win a World Series ring before he retires, Passan adds.
  • Executives have told Passan that Hudson could command as much as a two-year, $24MM contract on the free agent market (Twitter link). Hudson is benefiting from not being tied to draft pick compensation, but a deal of that size would still shatter most pundits' expectations.

Stephen Drew Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew will not accept the qualifying offer that Boston made him, a rival GM tells Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com (Twitter link). Drew's agent, Scott Boras, "already has set up a number of meetings on Drew for Tuesday at the GM meetings," the GM informed Gammons.

Of course, this news hardly rates as a major surprise. Though Drew probably ranks among the less obvious QO recipients, he still figures to warrant a big payday on the market, even with draft pick compensation attached. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently profiled Drew, arguing that four years and $48MM guaranteed is obtainable. As Dierkes explains, Drew's combination of strong defense and good power and on-base ability for a shortstop make for an appealing package. 

For just a $9.5MM guarantee, Boston GM Ben Cherington got about three-and-a-half wins above replacement from Drew in 2013. The Sox could now also reap a valuable draft pick, or — if other clubs hesitate to part with a top choice — get Drew to return to Boston on a below-market deal. 

Central Notes: Bruce, Phillips, Arroyo, Johan

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While Jay Bruce's agent, Matt Sosnick, said his client hasn't discussed an extension with the Reds, he didn't quash the idea either, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.  "Obviously, Jay loves playing in Cincinnati. He's made it clear in the past that all things equal, he'd like to finish his career there and certainly would be open to anything," said Sosnick.  While the Reds control Bruce through 2017 with three guaranteed years at $34.5MM and a team option for $13MM, the idea of a pre-emptive extension makes sense since the slugger will only be 30 upon hitting the open market.  Here's more out of the Central divisions..

  • Passan spoke to one exec who said that Brandon Phillips is as good as "gone" in Cincinnati.  Yesterday we learned that the Yankees made a preliminary inquiry on the second baseman, but it's possible that they're simply looking for leverage in talks with Robinson Cano.
  • The Twins have expressed interest in free agent pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Phil Hughes, and Jason Vargas, sources tell Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press.  While the Twins have yet to make a formal offer to Arroyo, the interest appears to be mutual between the club and the 36-year-old.
  • The Twins have also called on Scott Kazmir and Johan Santana, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN.
  • Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (video link) spoke with Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer about dealing with trade speculation and the possibility of hammering out an extension.
  • It might not have made a difference, but the Red Sox weren't showing any indication that they were ready to let Torey Lovullo go to the Cubs, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).  The Cubs agreed not to poach personnel from the Red Sox after Theo Epstein left to take over their operations.

Phillies Notes: Ruiz, Free Agents, Front Office

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Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Phillies have kicked around the idea of making an offer for David Price, but it's unlikely to happen because GM Ruben Amaro Jr. knows he has multiple needs to address and one big splash won't fix the team. Here's more on the Phils…

  • The Red Sox, according to sources, are quietly doing their due diligence on Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.  While there are other free agent catchers available, Ruiz is the guy that the Phillies want and the guy that the pitchers want.  The Phillies need to prioritize right-handed hitting and both Brian McCann and A.J. Pierzynski are left-handed hitters.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a switch-hitter, but he struggles from the right side. The Rockies are also known to be pursuing Ruiz and are reportedly planning to offer him a multiyear deal this week.
  • GM Ruben Amaro says that he has already made offers on "several" free agent players, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.  While Amaro declined to name names, Zolecki suggests that Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, and Mike Morse could be among their targets.
  • The Phillies hired Scott Freedman from Major League Baseball's Labor Relations Department to help the club incorporate analytics into their personnel decisions, Zolecki writes.  "I don't know if it's going to change the way we do business, necessarily," Amaro said. "We still plan to be a scouting and player development organization, but I think it's important to get all the information and analyze not just what we're doing, but how other clubs are evaluating players."

Red Sox Contacted Jarrod Saltalamacchia

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7:05pm: The Red Sox called today to express their interest in bringing Saltalamacchia back, agent Jim Munsey tells MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.

5:09pm: Jarrod Saltalamacchia has received calls from multiple teams, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, but he's surprised that there have yet to be any talks with the Red Sox:

"I’m a little surprised with not more conversation going on just because I thought we had a common idea of where we wanted to be. I put so much time and effort into the team and into the organization and they’ve done the same for me. But like I said, I may be premature and they might call out of nowhere, or might have already called and I just don’t know yet."

Saltalamacchia, who is represented by agent Jim Munsey, was the only of Boston's major free agents not to receive a qualifying offer from the team; Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli and Stephen Drew all received the offer. Saltalamacchia went on to say that he felt lucky to be able to go to Fenway Park for work each day for the four years he spent in Boston, and that his preference is to remain with the Red Sox. Saltalamacchia went so far as to say that as long as the offers were close, he'd turn down a larger offer from another team to stay in Boston.

The 28-year-old Saltalamacchia enjoyed his best season in 2013, batting .273/.338/.466 with 14 home runs in a career-high 470 plate appearances. He will be one of the youngest free agents on the market this offseason. That youth, his strong season and the lack of quality catching options throughout the game led MLBTR's Tim Dierkes to project a four-year, $36MM contract on the open market.

Latest On Brian McCann

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One catcher is already off the market with the news that the Rangers have re-signed Geovany Soto to a one-year, $3.05MM contract, but the biggest fish on that market is likely to take his time. As it stands right now, the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers could all be players for McCann.

Agent B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports Management tells Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald that the Red Sox would be a consideration if Jarrod Saltalamacchia signs elsewhere:

"Certainly Boston is a city that Brian likes, and he has always respected the organization and the front office," said Abbott. "Obviously, the coaching staff and clubhouse unity is attractive. He has also always been fascinated with the fan base, their support of the Red Sox and the history of the organization. Boston would certainly be a place that would be a consideration for Brian."

Abbott wouldn't comment on whether or not the Red Sox have actually reached out regarding McCann, but Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger reports that the Yankees indeed have contacted Abbott regarding the longtime Braves backstop. McCullough spoke with a pair of rival executives who believe that the bidding for McCann could top $100MM, which would be a stark increase from the five-year, $80MM deal predicted by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes in his free agent profile of McCann.

Andy Martino of the New York Daily News echoes the report on the Yanks' interest, adding that the Red Sox and "especially" the Rangers are expected to be serious competitors for Yankees GM Brian Cashman in his pursuit of McCann (Twitter link).

McCann is coming off his seventh straight 20-homer season despite starting the year on the disabled list. The seven-time All-Star made a bid for his sixth Silver Slugger award by hitting .256/.336/.461 in 2013.

Arbitration Eligibles: Boston Red Sox

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Red Sox conclude our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.  An explanation of our service time format: 5.062 means five years and 62 days.  172 days of service is equal to one year.

Bailey's time in Boston did not go well.  He needed thumb surgery early in 2012, making his season debut in mid-August and pitching poorly.  The Red Sox retained him through arbitration for 2013, but also acquired Joel Hanrahan to close.  Bailey took over as closer when Hanrahan hit the DL for a hamstring injury, and was still the closer after missing time himself for a biceps injury.  Bailey lost the ninth inning job in mid-June due to poor performance, and in July ended up needing season-ending shoulder surgery.  It seems that Bailey will miss much of the 2014 season as he recovers, so he's certain to be non-tendered by Boston.

Miller had a solid 2012 campaign for the Red Sox and started off acceptably this year, until enduring a July foot injury that required season-ending surgery.  He expects to be ready for Spring Training, and his price tag is palatable for a situational lefty.  Tazawa was excellent in the regular season and playoffs, and will have a prominent role in next year's bullpen.

The Red Sox have Craig Breslow under contract, so along with Miller, Morales represents a potential third southpaw in next year's bullpen.  Morales began the season on the DL for a back injury, and then strained a pectoral muscle in late April.  The Red Sox stretched him out as a starter as he rehabbed the injury, but his May 30th season debut was his only start of the season.  A shoulder injury put him back on the DL in late June, from which he returned in mid-August.  He pitched in the Division Series and ALCS but was not used in the World Series despite being on the roster.  It's hard to give up on a 28-year-old southpaw who throws 93-94 miles per hour, and Morales is cheap enough that the Red Sox might keep him around for 2014 or at least find a trade partner for him this winter.

Carp was designated for assignment by the Mariners in February, and after interest from the Twins, Astros, Brewers, the Red Sox acquired him, eventually just sending cash in return.  Carp, a left-handed hitter, faced righties in 88% of his plate appearances and authored an excellent overall line of .296/.362/.523.  The Red Sox will be happy to have him as part of next year's bench.

Assuming the Red Sox tender contracts to Miller, Morales, Carp, and Tazawa, they're looking at an estimated $6.1MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Free Agent Profile: Stephen Drew

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Stephen Drew signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox last offseason to rebuild his value after losing nearly a year to a gruesome ankle injury.  "I think after this year, I think everyone is going to think a lot different about what type of player Stephen is and the impact he can have on a division-contending team," said agent Scott Boras when Drew signed.  Drew went on to have the mostly healthy, productive season he and his agent envisioned. The free agent market for shortstops is bleak, and Drew stands to benefit.

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Strengths/Pros

The average shortstop hit just .254/.308/.367 this year, so any offense out of the position is a plus.  Drew's .253/.333/.443 line looks quite good by comparison.  His OBP ranked third in baseball among shortstops with 500 PAs, and his slugging percentage ranked fourth.  Drew's .190 isolated power trailed only Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki among shortstops.  There's room for more, too — Drew posted a .352 OBP in 2010, and slugged .502 with 21 home runs in '08.

Among those with 500 plate appearances in 2013, Drew's 4.10 pitches per PA ranked 21st in all of baseball, bested only by two other free agents.  He works the count well.

Drew really took off after returning from a hamstring injury in 2013, hitting .292/.367/.513 in 221 plate appearances from July 27th onward.

Drew's defense grades out as above average based on UZR, and anyone who saw him in the playoffs would agree.  Drew's overall production was good for 3.4 wins above replacement, and he reached 4.7 as recently as 2010.  He's an all-around player at a premium position.

Drew is still relatively young, as he doesn't turn 31 until March.

Weaknesses/Cons

Drew fractured his right ankle in a slide at home plate on July 20th, 2011, a season-ending injury that required surgery.  He hoped to be ready for Opening Day 2012, but instead made his season debut for the Diamondbacks on June 27th.  Said D'Backs Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick, "I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly.  I, for one, am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary."  Boras denied the claim, making a reasonable point: "If you're talking about what the best thing Stephen can do for himself, that's to play baseball and play a lot of it.  I don't think he wants anything different. That's the best thing he can do for Stephen and for his team. Why would he not want to play? The guy's going to be a free agent."  Still, some damage was likely done to Drew's reputation by Kendrick's comments.  It didn't help that Stephen's older brother J.D. had been known as one of the game's more injury-prone players.  With free agency approaching, the D'Backs traded Stephen Drew to the Athletics in an August waiver trade.

A spring concussion pushed Drew's Red Sox debut to April 10th, and he later missed three weeks due to a hamstring injury.  Though Drew's injuries this year seemed minor and were not related to his ankle, he was limited to 124 regular season games, for a three-year average of about 96.  Until he goes out and does it, some teams may be skeptical that Drew can handle 140+ games again.

Drew, a left-handed hitter, batted just .196/.246/.340 against southpaws this year.  He had a rough time away from Fenway, hitting .222/.295/.392 on the road.  Drew also struggled mightily with the bat in the postseason, with a .111/.140/.204 line in 57 plate appearances.  For most teams, the small postseason sample shouldn't be a deterrent, and Drew did homer in Game Six of the World Series.

Drew received a qualifying offer, so a team will have to forfeit its highest available draft pick to sign him.  It is possible the qualifying offer could have a significant effect on his market.

Personal

Drew was born in a small town in southern Georgia and resides nearby with his wife and two sons in the offseason, right down the street from older brother J.D.  By getting drafted in the first round in 2004, Stephen matched the near-impossible standard set by his older brothers Tim and J.D., who had both been drafted in the first round in 1997.  The Drew brothers are the only trio of siblings to have been selected in the first round of the MLB draft.  J.D. had a successful baseball career, which ended with a five-year stint with Boston, while Tim logged 35 appearances across in parts of five seasons.  Stephen told Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com he was a natural-born right-handed hitter, but took up swinging from the left side in admiration of J.D.   He'd later follow J.D. to Florida State and to the Red Sox (and even chose his number seven), though at a young age Stephen chose a very different position in shortstop rather than the outfield.

J.D. had a reputation of being quiet and dispassionate, but Stephen talks a lot more than his brother, noted Red Sox manager John Farrell in Edes' article.  He's a deeply religious man, wrote MLB.com's Steve Gilbert in 2010. 

Market

There hasn't been much buzz about the Red Sox re-signing Drew, perhaps because they have a ready replacement in Xander Bogaerts.  Teams that may be seeking a shortstop this offseason include the Pirates, Cardinals, and Mets.  Drew's market is not limited to that trio, and he will probably need some unexpected suitors to materialize.  For example, the Dodgers could move Hanley Ramirez to third base to make room.  Drew's only free agent competition is Jhonny Peralta, who won't cost a draft pick but also isn't considered a shortstop by some teams. 

Expected Contract

Boras is probably telling teams Drew is one of the best shortstops in baseball, and certainly the best available this winter.  Don't be surprised if Boras sets out seeking a five-year contract for his client.  In reality, though, the fourth year will be a sticking point for most teams, along with the draft pick, and a three-year deal in the $36-42MM range is possible.  But I see Drew closer to the Michael Bourn range, so I'm predicting a four-year, $48MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Qualifying Offers, Red Sox, Mets, Pavano

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The biggest winners at this year's qualifying offer deadline include Bronson Arroyo, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and the Yankees and Red Sox, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. Arroyo and Saltalamacchia, who did not receive qualifying offers, could now be headed toward nice-sized paydays. And the Yankees and Red Sox, who extended qualifying offers to three players apiece, could receive plenty of draft picks if they don't re-sign their players. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • Despite their World Series win, the Red Sox don't plan on standing pat this offseason, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com reports. Leaving aside that a number of players (Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and so on) are free agents, the Red Sox believe (probably wisely, given the experiences of franchises like the 2002 Angels who got too attached to successful teams) that they can't simply hope to repeat the same success in 2014 with the same players. "I remember at the time what Theo (Epstein, former general manager) felt strongly about is that if you try to replicate exactly, it's probably not going to work the same," says Cherington.
  • The Mets aren't big fans of Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo, and therefore don't appear likely to deal for him, Andy Martino of New York Daily News tweets. Given that the Mets don't seem to be looking for a first baseman, that makes sense, although Trumbo played 27 games in the outfield last season as well.
  • Agent Dave Pepe tells Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (Twitter link) that Carl Pavano will start throwing December 1 to determine if he wants to come back. The right-hander, who will turn 38 in early January, missed all of last season after having his spleen removed.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Minor Moves: Jones, Twins, Berry, Snyder, Wolf, Blackley

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Here are today’s outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Orioles are placing lefty Chris Jones on their 40-man roster, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweets. Jones, 25, posted a 2.67 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 70 2/3 innings for Triple-A Norfolk this year. The move will prevent them from losing him to minor-league free agency.
  • Edgar Ibarra has been added to the Twins’ 40-man roster, the team announced today. The 24-year-old Venezuelan left-hander posted a 1.93 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 60 2/3 innings of relief between Double-Aand Triple-A this season. By adding Ibarra to the 40-man roster, the Twins ensure that he cannot be selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
  • The Twins have also re-signed Wilkin Ramirez, Dan Rohlfing, Aaron Thompson, Jermaine Mitchell, Lester Oliveros, Doug Bernier and James Beresford to minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training, tweets MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Ramirez and Bernier each saw time with the big league club in 2013, and Oliveros was one of two pitchers received from the Tigers in exchange for Delmon Young in 2011.
  • The Red Sox announced that they have outrighted outfielder Quintin Berry and infielder Brandon Snyder off their 40-man roster. Both are now free agents after spending the majority of this past season at Triple-A. Snyder hit .261/.332/.454 with 10 homers in the minors, while Berry slashed just .191/.309/.257 with three homers and 30 steals in 34 tries at Triple-A.
  • Right-hander Ross Wolf has re-signed with the Rangers on a minor league contract with an invitation to 2014 Spring Training, the team announced. The 31-year-old posted a 4.15 ERA in 22 appearances (three starts) for Texas in 2013, averaging 4.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 47 2/3 innings. Wolf had been outrighted off the 40-man roster and cleared waivers before re-signing.
  • In other Rangers news, left-hander Travis Blackley was also outrighted off the 40-man roster and elected free agency. In 50 1/3 innings between the Rangers and Astros, compiling a 4.83 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.
  • The Padres announced that they have outrighted left-hander Tommy Layne to Triple-A Tucson. Layne, 29, pitched 8 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball for the Padres in his second big league stint this season. He has a 4.50 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 704 career minor league innings between the Padres and Diamondbacks, who traded him to San Diego for cash considerations in the 2011-12 offseason. Layne was designated for assignment along with fellow lefty Colt Hynes to make roster space for Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland as they returned from the 60-day DL. Hynes has since been acquired by the Indians.

Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.

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