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Quick Hits: Pence, Westbrook, Abreu, Astros

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While it’s not a mistake on the level of the Barry Zito contract, the Giants could come to regret the Hunter Pence deal, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The $90MM contract won’t stop them from winning if they can surround him with quality players on undervalue contracts, but that’s obviously easier said than done. Here’s more from around baseball..

  • Jake Westbrook can read the writing on the wall and knows that his time with the Cardinals is likely over, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Between his struggles and the Cards’ wealth of young pitching, Westbrook isn’t expected to be placed on the postseason roster. Westbrook isn’t certain if he will pitch in 2014 and plans to discuss with his family in the offseason.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with international sources to identify five teams that could sign Jose Dariel Abreu.  The White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers look like the frontrunners for the Cuban standout with Texas possibly having the inside track on everyone.
  • Prior to a charity event earlier today, Astros owner Jim Crane said that he plans to spend money in 2014 to help turn the club around, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. “Now we have a nucleus to draw from. And so we got that established. I think in the off-season you’ll see Jeff [Luhnow], and he’s already said it, we’re going to fill some of those holes. As the kids come up through the system we can get competitive very quick. We lost a lot of one-run games. It’s pretty obvious where our needs are, and we’ll work on those in the offseason and start loosening the purse book,” Crane said.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein says he will look first and foremost at candidates with managerial experience, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) notes that the Dodgers hold an option on manager Don Mattingly for 2014.  The option is worth $1.4MM, sources tell Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Napoli

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A three-year, $39MM guarantee with the Red Sox for slugger Mike Napoli was renegotiated all the way down to a one-year, $5MM contract in the course of about two months during the offseason, as a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips.  The degenerative condition, which came as a surprise to Napoli, was caught early and has not affected his play to date.  Napoli avoided the DL this year, earning $8MM in incentives to bring his 2013 earnings to the same $13MM average annual value from his original three-year contract.  Now, he's eligible to return to the free agent market coming off a fine season.

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Strengths/Pros

Napoli is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market, as he leads all qualified free agents in isolated power.  He's tied for sixth among all free agents with 23 home runs and is fourth in slugging at .482, assuming Adam Lind's option is picked up.  Napoli is one of just ten players to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the 2008-13 seasons.  

A right-handed hitter, Napoli's on-base percentage is boosted by a strong career walk rate of 12%.  This year, his .360 OBP ranks third among qualified free agents.  If you're looking for offense from a right-handed hitter, Napoli is one of the best 15 bats in the game right now.

We don't take much stock in RBI here at MLBTR, but it may help Napoli's bargaining position that he ranks second among free agents with 92 knocked in.  The player ranked above him, Robinson Cano, will require a much larger commitment.

Formerly a catcher, Napoli proved this year he can play an acceptable first base, logging nearly 1,100 innings at the position with strong grades from UZR/150 (+13.3) and The Fielding Bible (+10).

Napoli comes with a reputation as a winner, as this year will mark his sixth postseason out of eight total seasons.  He was a big performer for the Rangers in 2011, driving in 15 runs in 17 games.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Napoli's AVN has not affected his play or caused him to miss time to date, the Red Sox were concerned enough about the condition to reduce their offer to one guaranteed year at less than 40% of the original salary.  Napoli was back on the open market during the seven-plus weeks his contract was being renegotiated, and while agent Brian Grieper praised his client for his loyalty, it's likely other interested teams shared Boston's concern and didn't offer significantly more.

Napoli has proven his health to the extent possible this year by setting a career best in plate appearances with 578 in the regular season.  It's difficult to project his playing time in the future, however, since he was previously a catcher and has now been diagnosed with AVN.  Napoli had more than his fair share of separate injuries, with 53 DL days in '07, 32 in '08, 22 in '11, and 35 in '12.  These injuries, involving his ankle, hamstring, shoulder, oblique, and quad, may have been related to time spent at catcher, but his history dates back to the minors.  Any team considering a multiyear offer has to take the entire injury history into account.

Napoli struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, worst among all qualified free agents.  Mark Reynolds and Marlon Byrd are the only other two to even top 20%.  Napoli's strikeouts, which have increased in the past two years, are a big reason why he's hitting .246 since 2012.  Given his walk rate, it still makes for a strong OBP, but if he bats .240 and walks dip to his 2009-10 level, his OBP will no longer be an asset.  Additionally, as you would expect from a former catcher, Napoli's baserunning is below average.

I mentioned earlier that Napoli leads all free agents in isolated power, but his .223 mark is actually his worst since 2009.  Given his previous production and career high in plate appearances, I would have expected Napoli to have over 30 home runs at this point rather than 23.

The Rangers chose not to tender Napoli a $13.3MM qualifying offer after the 2012 season, but with a healthier campign and their recent preference for short-term deals, the Red Sox are likely to make the $14MM qualifying offer five days after the World Series ends.  Napoli is the type of player the system hurts the most: one who is good but not great, and doesn't have the youth of a B.J. Upton.  With the cost of a first or even second round draft pick, a few teams could lose interest in Napoli.

Personal

Mike resides in Pembroke Pines, Florida.  He values time with his family, and even has his mother's name, Donna Rose, tattooed on his arm.  Mike is a big fan of the NFL and college football, particularly the University of Miami.

Market

It would be reasonable for the Red Sox to try to bring Napoli back, and a qualifying offer or the threat of one gives them some leverage.  We've seen them tangle with David Ortiz in this type of situation, with Ortiz accepting arbitration after the 2011 season and getting a two-year deal done last November with a qualifying offer in hand, before hitting the open market.  The Red Sox were willing to offer Napoli three years and $39MM to sign him off the open market last winter before the AVN revelation, but they honed in on him, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Stephen Drew in part they would not cost a draft pick.  The Sox liked the two-year, $26MM price enough on Ortiz to forgo the chance at draft pick compensation for him, and I wonder if two years might be their limit on Napoli.  On the other hand, they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Draft pick compensation will affect Napoli on the open market if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox.  Still, teams like the Twins, Rockies, and Mets, with protected first round draft picks and openings at first base, seem like good fits.  Napoli has the advantage of a very weak free agent market for first basemen.  Kendrys Morales is more of a DH, and could be dragging around a qualifying offer as well.  Otherwise the options are Corey Hart, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Paul Konerko.  As one commenter notes below, the wild card in the first base market is Jose Dariel Abreu, the Cuban slugger in whom the Red Sox may have interest.

Expected Contract

I think a qualifying offer can knock a year off a player's contract, as it seemingly did with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, so two years and $28MM is the floor for Napoli.  Ultimately I predict Napoli will land a three-year, $42MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Price, Longoria, Ortiz, Helton

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We've already shared a Nate McLouth free agent profile, some Blue Jays notes, Yankees notes and the news of Robinson Cano's contract demands today, so let's take a look around the rest of the AL East…

  • This could be David Price's last season and playoff run with the Rays, as CBS Sports' Danny Knobler figures that this offseason (when Price has two remaining years of team control) is the perfect time for the Rays to maximize their return on a trade.
  • Rays third baseman Evan Longoria looked up to Derek Jeter as a kid, yet he didn't emulate Jeter by playing for the Yankees but rather by staying with one franchise for his career, Harvey Araton of the New York Times writes.  Robinson Cano has the opportunity to be a one-franchise player if he re-signs with the Yankees this offseason and Longoria believes Cano will stay because the Yankees are always looking to contend.  “I’m sure Robby realizes that his organization is never going into a year saying they are rebuilding,” Longoria said. “You can’t not like that, or respect that.”
  • Unless David Ortiz goes on the DL over the next four days, the Red Sox slugger has stayed healthy enough to add an extra $4MM to his 2014 salary, ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes writes.  Ortiz the first 20 days of the season on the DL with his right Achilles injury but hasn't returned, so he is now guaranteed $15MM in the final year of his two-year contract with the Sox.
  • The Red Sox were Todd Helton's last opponent at Coors Field, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes that the Sox twice tried to acquire Helton from the Rockies.  A proposed 2002 blockbuster would've seen Helton and Larry Walker go to Boston in exchange for a trade package headlined by Manny Ramirez, and then in 2008 the Rockies turned down an offer of Mike Lowell for Helton straight-up.
  • The time has come for the Orioles to increase payroll and add the necessary remaining pieces to their contending roster, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun argues.

AL East Notes: Machado, Salty, Melky, O’Day, Roberts

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Orioles fans and fans all around the game were disheartened to see what looked to be a severe knee injury for ultra-talented third baseman Manny Machado in yesterday's loss to the Rays. Machado had an MRI today, and manager Buck Showalter told reporters, including MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli, that he's optimistic and confident Machado will be able to play with the team early next season. According to Ghiroli, the radiologist's early opinion of the MRI is that the injury wasn't as severe as it initially looked. Injuries were the story of the game for the O's, who also saw Alexi Casilla suffer a likely concussion after an outfield collision. Casilla, a soon-to-be free agent, is likely done for the season, according to Ghiroli. Here's more on the AL East…

  • Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) looks at the pending free agents who have boosted their value the most with strong 2013 seasons. Law feels that Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the Red Sox is the most likely candidate to sign an extension that will "shocK everybody" this offseason due to the scarcity of quality catching options. Law also lists Orioles' hurler Scott Feldman, noting he has a much-improved curveball and could sign a contract in the range of three years and $20-25MM. Last week, I predicted Feldman would sign for two years and $17MM, with Jeremy Guthrie's three-year, $25MM deal being his ceiling.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet looks at the left field position for the Blue Jays, which could be a position of need this winter if they decline the option on Adam Lind or trade him, putting Melky Cabrera in the DH spot. After breaking down the internal options, BN-S looks at external options which include re-signing Rajai Davis and making a play for the likes of David DeJesus or Corey Hart.
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun shares the story of Orioles reliever Darren O'Day and his unorthodox background. O'Day, 31 in October, has a 2.19 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 67 relief appearances this season.
  • Brian Roberts knows that his time with the Orioles may be coming to an end, and he's trying to embrace the remaining time he has with the team, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. Roberts adds that he hopes 2013 isn't the end of his tenure in Baltimore but admits that he has o idea if he's in the team's future plans.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays

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In case you missed it, yesterday was a big day in the AL East. The Red Sox clinched the division, even if that had already become a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, the Rays and Orioles churned through a record twenty-one pitchers in an epic, 18-inning contest that left Tampa in the driver's seat of the Wild Card race. Here are some notes on the division:

  • The Red Sox' turnaround exceeded even the team's internal expectations, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. While the Sox pegged the likeliest outcome as an 86-win campaign, with an outside shot at a low-90's figure, Boston has already notched 94 W's with seven left to go. "I think we're all in a bit of shock," said team chairman Tom Werner. 
  • Speier provides a detailed explanation of how the team effected its dramatic turnaround, ranging from the return to form of several regulars (especially in the rotation), development of an impressive bench (including the DFA'd Mike Carp), and improved focus and chemistry. As Speier notes, the front office "nailed one bull's-eye after another while turning over roughly a third of its roster."
  • Under GM Ben Cherington, Boston has transformed its organization and with it the product on the field, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. As with the Speier piece, you'll want to read the entire article, but the most interesting bits relate to the GM's philosophies. Approaching his post with a long-term focus, humble evaluative framework, and open mind, Gammons explains how Cherington has infused solid, hard-working pieces into the organization. 
  • Rotation stalwart Andy Pettitte's forthcoming retirement is yet another reminder that a Yankee era is ending, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The team faces a wide array of roster challenges heading into 2013, says Knobler, with age and injury questions around the diamond, no attractive catching options, and a meager free agent market to play in. 
  • Of course, given the team's unequaled spending capacity, one is always loath to count out the Bronx Bombers. Indeed, GM Brian Cashman has navigated countless hurdles this season to deliver a contender, though the team is now highly likely to miss out on the postseason for just the second time in the last nineteen years. Looking ahead, the Yanks have relatively meager overall commitments in comparison to their historical $200MM+ payroll levels: $89MM in 2014 (six players, one buy-out); $68.1MM in 2015 (three players); $69.1MM in 2016 (three players); and $26MM in 2017 (one player, one buy-out). And that is before accounting for any dollars saved via the yet-to-be-finalized Alex Rodriguez suspension. Of course, those amounts do not account for a new deal for Robinson Cano, and it is looking increasingly likely that the team's long-term commitments may deliver little in on-field production.
  • The Blue Jays have long been the lone AL East team with nothing left to play for in 2013. The team's brass has already begun evaluating and planning for next year, reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Addressing a reader question, Griffin says that the team has little reason to waste its energy pursuing star second baseman Robinson Cano, but could instead take advantage of salary coming off the books after 2015 to make a back-loaded offer to a free agent pitcher. 
  • Looking forward, Toronto has a heavily front-loaded set of salary obligations after carrying a franchise-high $119.3MM payroll on opening day this year. The Jays have the league's fourth-highest contract commitments for both 2014 ($110.5MM) and 2015 ($91.2MM), but are locked into a below-average $27.6MM in 2016. To back-load money to a free agent this offseason, however, would mean giving out at least a three- or four-year deal, and there do not appear to be many starters on the market that would warrant that kind of commitment.

Bidding For Alexander Guerrero “Wide Open” Again

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3:43pm: The Dodgers are no longer willing to pay Guerrero $32MM and may not pursue him at all, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal notes that the team's position may merely be strategic; they could be backing off that number simply so Boras doesn't use that as a baseline when negotiating with other clubs.

3:15pm: Just over a week ago, it seemed that Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero was close to signing a five-year, $32MM contract with the Dodgers. SInce that time, however, the 26-year-old has left his former agent, Rudy Santin, in favor of the Boras Corporation. Boras described the bidding as "wide open," writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, who reports that the Red Sox, Reds, Rangers and Giants all have interest in Guerrero and are fighting the Dodgers for his services.

MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez tweeted yesterday that Sanchez is looking for an overall better deal than the previously rumored agreement. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti wouldn't comment when asked by Heyman about the situation, stating that he wouldn't publicly discusss contract negotiations.

The Rangers seem a curious fit for Guerrero, with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler and Jurickson Profar all already in the fold. The Reds would have to use him at shortstop or perhaps third base due to the presence of Brandon Phillips, despite the fact that many scouts have predicted Guerrero will have to transition to second base to play in the Majors. Boston has Dustin Pedroia at second base, and Xander Bogaerts projects as their long-term answer at shortstop. The Giants, too, are a curious fit with Marco Scutaro under contract, Brandon Crawford at short and Pablo Sandoval at third base.

Guerrero hit .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his final season inSerie Nacional. As Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports pointed out last January, Guerrero OPSed .997 or better each year in Cuba from 2009-11. Heyman points out that Guerrero could have an impact on Robinson Cano's market this offseason if bidding drags on and teams believe Guerrero to be superior to other second base options, as Guerrero will naturally be more affordable than Cano.

Red Sox Notes: Uehara, Cherington, Salty, Ellsbury

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Koji Uehara's run of 37 straight batters retired came to an end last night, falling eight men shy of Mark Buehrle's absurd Major League record of 45 consecutive batters retired. Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus breaks down Uehara's streak (with some help from Dan Brooks of Brooksbaseball.net), looking at several at-bats along the way and calculating that, based on the projected rest-of-season OBPs of the hitters that Uehara faced, the average pitcher has a 0.000056 percent chance of retiring those 37 batters consecutively. Here's more on the Red Sox…

  • General manager Ben Cherington may have gone 6-for-7 in terms of free agent signings this offseason, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman lists Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, David Ross, Jonny Gomes and Stephen Drew as wins, and that's not including the cheap pick-up of Mike Carp. Other teams are taking note of the blueprint, with one Mets official telling Heyman there's "a lot of merit" to Cherington's approach. Heyman points out that even with the $8MM worth of incentives to Napoli, the total free agent commitment of $108.2MM is about $17MM less than Josh Hamilton's contract on its own.
  • Ian Browne of MLB.com believes the Red Sox are probably more comfortable trying to retain Jarrod Saltalamacchia than trying to bring in a free agent or trade target to rebuild the excellent rapport that Saltalamacchia has established with the team's pitching staff.
  • Within that same Inbox piece, Browne speculates that the team likely isn't comfortable going to six or seven years for Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent, having learned the hard way from the Carl Crawford contract.
  • Browne also writes that it's all but certain that the Red Sox will non-tender Andrew Bailey this offseason. Bailey earned $4.1MM this season and would've been in line for a slight raise via arbitration because he pitched well prior to being lost for the season due to injury once again. The team could still look to bring Bailey back at a reduced rate, but Uehara will be Boston's closer in 2014, Browne writes definitively.

International Notes: Tanaka, Abreu

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The latest on some of the top international targets for Major League teams this winter…

  • The Angels have been scouting Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka and will consider a run at him this offseason, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Tanaka represents a way for the team to upgrade its rotation with a controllable, young arm (Tanaka is currently 24) without having to sacrifice players like Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick in a trade, DiGiovanna adds.
  • In his game recap of Tanaka's most recent start (he threw a 10-hit, one-run complete game), Baseball America's Ben Badler cites Japanese media outlet Sanspo in reporting that the Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all had scouts in attendance once again. All three were said to have scouts in attendance for another recent Tanaka outing. Badler's subscription-only piece includes a full report on Tanaka's performance.
  • The Phillies aren't likely to make a play for Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu, a team source told MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. The presence of Ryan Howard and Abreu's inability to handle an outfield spot leave them without a place to put him despite the need for right-handed power. Zolecki adds that the Phillies have worked out top prospect Maikel Franco at first base as well, so they could have a power-hitting, right-handed first baseman to eventually replace Howard anyway for a fraction of Abreu's price.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, Shields, Uehara

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The Red Sox love a good mantra or idea to rally around when the playoffs approach.  In 2003, the BoSox implored each other to “Cowboy Up.”  In 2004, the Red Sox termed themselves as the “Idiots.”  This year, the Red Sox want everyone to fear the beard as much of the roster is now sporting some sweet facial hair, writes John Tomase of the Boston Herald.  Here’s more out of the AL East..

Cafardo On Cano, Angels, Rangers, Cruz

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there is growing resentment towards the one-game playoff.  “I would like to see it changed to two of three,” said the Red Sox’ Jonny Gomes. “At least then you feel as if you lose, you had three games. I like the fact the two wild cards play, that part is fine, and I understand the drama of the one game, but it’s not fair. You see what’s happening now. These teams are fighting and clawing to get one of those two spots, then let the teams who make it have a fair chance to advance.”  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • Most industry sources believe the Dodgers won’t be interested in Robinson Cano, but Cafardo says that the Angels and Tigers are worth keeping an eye on.  Cafardo also heard someone theorize that the Mets could pull a fast one and get in the mix for Cano.  There's no evidence of that happening, but it would keep the star second baseman in his desired long-term location.
  • There are still no signs that the Rangers will trade Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar this offseason, but dealing Ian Kinsler could be a legitimate option, with Andrus or Profar playing second base in 2014.  However, the 31-year-old's contract is an issue as he has four years remaining at $57MM with an option for 2018.  He's not having his sharpest season either, hitting .273/.340/.403 versus a line of .272/.350/.460 heading into 2013.
  • Speaking of Texas, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Rangers re-sign Nelson Cruz despite the 50-game PED suspension.  Cruz has been the missing cog in the Rangers’ recent slump and also happens to be popular in the clubhouse.  Even with Alex Rios, Texas will still be in the market for  a DH/outfielder this this winter and it could be as simple as re-signing Cruz.
  • Alfredo Aceves is now home in Mexico after leaving Fort Myers, Florida and is unlikely to ever don a Red Sox uniform again.  One American League GM blasted the pitcher for his behavior but said that he'll likely get another chance somewhere because of his talent.
  • If Carlos Beltran does not re-sign with the Cardinals, Cafardo posits that he would be the ideal DH/occasional outfielder for the Orioles. 
  • Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta is “likely going to be someone’s third baseman” next season, one Detroit teammate said.
  • Cafardo wonders if Cal Ripken could emerge as a candidate to replace Davey Johnson as manager of the Nationals.  Of course, Ripken is tied to the local competition, but he has made it clear that he wants to be a skipper.  Meanwhile, Buck Showalter is on solid footing with the Orioles and it would allow Ripken to stay in the area. 
  • Not a huge surprise, but Cafardo doesn't believe the Red Sox will exercise Matt Thornton's $6MM option for next season.
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