Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo is currently slated to become a free agent after the 2024 season but is open to staying in Boston longer. “I’m all ears,” he tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “I do love Boston. I’ve been saying it for many years. I’ve really been able to come into my own in this organization. I like it a lot.”
However, Verdugo says that he and the club haven’t had any talks about a contract that would prevent him from hitting the open market. There’s still time for such talks to take place though and the outfielder doesn’t seem especially concerned. “However they and we want to handle it, that’s how it happens,” he says. “All in good time. It will happen when it happens.”
The 27-year-0ld is having his best season to date in 2023. His 8.9% walk rate is around league average, but his 12.1% strikeout rate is excellent, placing him in the top 10 among qualified hitters in the league. He only has five home runs on the year, but his contact approach has led to a .301/.374/.462 batting line. His 128 wRC+ indicates he’s been 28% better than the league-average hitter and represents the highest such tally of his career.
Verdugo is having a solid campaign on defense as well, having tallied nine Defensive Runs Saved, two Outs Above Average and a grade of 8.2 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Those figures all put him on pace to set personal bests in those categories by season’s end if he keeps it up. FanGraphs grades him as having produced 2.4 wins above replacement on the season, which is already better than his high of 2.1 from back in 2019 with the Dodgers. Baseball Reference gave him 3.0 WAR for that 2019 campaign but he’s already at 2.8 this year with more than half the season remaining.
If Verdugo can keep up that level of play for the rest of this year and the 2024 season, he’ll be setting himself up for a nice payday. He will turn 28 next May and will be set to become a free agent prior to his age-29 season, allowing him to market several of his prime years to potential suitors.
The Red Sox could prevent him from reaching the open market with an extension but apparently haven’t shown much interest in doing so, at least not yet. If they do have interest, it’s possible that they will sit down with Verdugo and his representatives this offseason, since contract talks during this stage of the season are rare. At that point, he will have more than five years of service time and be within a year of free agency.
Looking at some recent extensions for players in that service time bracket, there are some players obviously on a tier above Verdugo. MVP-caliber players like Francisco Lindor and Verdugo’s teammate Rafael Devers got $341MM and $313.5MM, respectively. Slightly below those guys, there’s players like Byron Buxton and Ketel Marte, who have shown MVP upside on occasion but have struggled to stay healthy for lengthy stretches. They each signed deals with lesser guarantees but heavy incentives that would allow them to earn more money if they stayed healthy, with Buxton getting $100MM and Marte $76MM.
Verdugo is a solid contributor but hasn’t quite reached the elite levels of those players. A better comparison is probably Ian Happ, who just signed a three-year, $61MM extension with the Cubs. Decent but not elite corner outfielders tend to be capped near that level even when they reach the open market. This past winter, we saw Andrew Benintendi get a $75MM guarantee over five years from the White Sox while Mitch Haniger got $43.5MM over three, as injury concerns for the latter undoubtedly tamped that down a bit.
The Red Sox have generally shied away from extensions, even with their star players, which is how Verdugo came to Boston in the first place. When the Sox were clearly not going to extend Mookie Betts, they flipped him and David Price to the Dodgers for a package of players headlined by Verdugo. More recently, Xander Bogaerts and the club couldn’t agree to a second extension and he wound up with the Padres. They bucked that trend with Devers this winter and made him their face-of-the-franchise player.
It’s fairly understandable that the Sox don’t have too much urgency to lock up Verdugo, in that they already have a long-term commitment to one corner outfielder. This offseason, they signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM guarantee that also involved paying a $15.375MM release fee to the Orix Buffaloes, his NPB team. Teams generally lean towards making their signature commitments in the middle of the diamond, with catchers, shortstops and center fielders often outpacing similar hitters in the corners. The Sox have one such deal with Trevor Story but are also significantly embedded with Devers and Yoshida. Perhaps they would prefer to save their chips to address other areas of their roster such as their pitching staff or catching corps.
Of course, these situations are always fluid. With Happ and the Cubs, the team already had significant commitments to players like Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki and nothing came together by Opening Day this year. It didn’t feel like it would get done, but the two sides finally put pen to paper on April 12, when he was just a few months away from free agency. Though it doesn’t seem like there’s much progress between the Sox and Verdugo right now, these things can come together quickly, especially when the player is open to staying.
