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Phillies Sign Brad Keller

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December 18th: The Phils have officially announced their signing of Keller. According to The Associated Press, he receives a $4MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for 2026, followed by an $11MM salary in ’27.

December 17th: The Phillies and right-handed reliever Brad Keller are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The deal is pending a physical. Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two parties were nearing an agreement. Keller, who is represented by Excel Sports Management, received some interest as a starter but will be used as a reliever in Philadelphia, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Keller, 30, was a solid starter with the Royals early in his career after being picked up from the D-backs in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. After a nice run of three seasons, his numbers took a sharp decline, due largely to the complete erosion of his command.

Keller walked a staggering 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings in 2023 and was subsequently diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery to alleviate the issue. A comeback effort in 2024 didn’t pan out well, as he pitched to a 5.44 ERA in 41 1/3 frames between the Red Sox and White Sox, but Keller completely remade himself as a high-end bullpen weapon with the Cubs in 2025 after signing a minor league contract.

In 69 2/3 innings this past season, Keller was dominant. His 2.07 ERA tied him for 13th-best among 147 qualified relievers. The 6’5″, 255-pound righty set down 27.2% of his opponents on strikes and notched a sharp 8% walk rate. Keller had sat 92-94 mph as a starter and even in bullpen work with the White Sox and Red Sox in ’24, but his sinker averaged a career-best 96.7 mph in 2025 and his four-seamer clocked in even higher at 97.2 mph. His 56.1% ground-ball rate was a career-best mark, and opponents had an extremely rough time squaring up any of his pitches. His 86.7 mph average exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate were far and away the lowest marks of his career.

There are at least some modest red flags with regard to Keller. His 10.8% swinging-strike is actually below the league average and doesn’t support his well above-average strikeout rate. The quality of his stuff clearly improved, just as the quality of his opponents’ contact deteriorated, but it’s still unlikely that he’ll sustain a .243 average on balls in play over the course of a full season. However, even with some regression in terms of BABIP and strikeout rate, Keller still looks the part of a quality bullpen arm who’ll support an improved late-inning relief contingent for the next two seasons.

Keller should operate as a setup man to deadline acquisition Jhoan Duran, who came over from Minnesota in exchange for top prospects Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. He’ll join righty Orion Kerkering and southpaws Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks in what should be a formidable setup corps for manager Rob Thomson. There’s still room for the Phils to add another reliever if a deal to their liking presents itself, but they’re six-deep in largely established relief arms with Keller now in the fold.

The $11MM annual value of the contract pushes the Phillies from the third tier of luxury tax penalization to the fourth and final bracket, per RosterResource’s projections. They were already paying a 95% tax on subsequent additions and were about $7MM from the top tier. Keller places them about $4MM over that line. They’ll pay about $22MM for him this season (assuming an even $11MM per year distribution) rather than that $11MM surface value. Any subsequent additions to the payroll at this point will be taxed at the maximum 110% rate.

The Phillies have done a fair bit of offseason work already. They added outfielder Adolis Garcia on a one-year contract just yesterday and, prior to that, re-signed slugger Kyle Schwarber on a huge five-year, $150MM contract. The Phils could still poke around the bullpen market or look for a complementary right-handed bat to pair with Brandon Marsh in left field. Rotation depth could be an issue as well, depending on Zack Wheeler’s recovery from his own thoracic outlet procedure, so some modest depth adds could be on the horizon. The most notable issue for the club, however, is at catcher, where they’re still hoping to retain longtime backstop J.T. Realmuto. That’ll be top of mind until Realmuto signs, be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere.

Blue Jays Interested In Brad Keller

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The Blue Jays have been busy adding to their rotation this offseason but they’re not necessarily done. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report that the Jays are still open to adding more starting options, with right-hander Brad Keller one guy they have interest in.

The club has already signed Dylan Cease and reportedly has an agreement in place with Cody Ponce as well. That now gives the Jays an on-paper rotation of Cease, Ponce, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos, with Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and others in the mix as well.

That’s plenty of depth in a sense but there are also some questions in there. Ponce is fairly unproven as he has been pitching in Asia and his last MLB game was several years ago. It was reported this week that Bieber dealt with forearm fatigue late in the 2025 campaign and is now questionable for Opening Day 2026. Berríos was bumped from the rotation late in the season and also wound up on the injured list with an elbow injury. He appears to be healthy now but there may be some discontent there and the Jays are reportedly open to trading him. Lauer pitched both as a starter and reliever in 2025 and could be in line for the same type of role next year. Francis and Tiedemann are both coming off seasons lost to injuries. There’s plenty of long-term uncertainty as well. Gausman, Bieber and Lauer are all slated for free agency after 2026. Berríos has an opt-out in his deal at that time as well.

Keller is a logical target for the Jays, and many other clubs, since he could be deployed either out of the rotation or the bullpen. If the Jays were to sign him, his role could depend on his own performance as well as future moves, the health of Bieber, and various other factors.

Earlier in his career, Keller was a decent starter for the Royals. He didn’t get a ton of strikeouts but he got opponents to hit the ball into the the ground. From 2018 to 2020, he posted a 3.50 earned average with a 16.8% strikeout rate and 52.1% ground ball rate. He then endured a few years of struggle, with a 5.14 ERA from 2021 to 2023. He underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in October of 2023. He returned to action in 2024 but without much success, posting a 5.44 ERA as a swingman.

In 2025, he got a relief role with the Cubs and ran with it. He logged 69 2/3 innings on the year overall with a tiny ERA of 2.07. His 56.1% ground ball rate was in his usual range but he also managed to punch out 27.2% of batters he faced, almost double his early-career rate.

In recent years, it has become quite common to stretch out successful relievers, often in cases involving guys with previous starting experience. Garrett Crochet, Seth Lugo, Michael King, Clay Holmes and Reynaldo López have had varying degrees of success with the switch. It didn’t go quite as well with guys like A.J. Puk and Jordan Hicks. But the appeal for a team is clear, as it’s usually an attempt to get a starter for a reliever price.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Keller to secure a $36MM guarantee over three years, with that prediction baking in the possibility some clubs would view him as a starter. $12MM annually isn’t nothing but it’s still cheaper than veteran injury reclamation deals. Guys like Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer got $15MM contracts last winter, for instance. The top guys, like Cease, get about double that annually.

Keller has indeed received interest as a starter this winter, with the Tigers and Yankees reportedly interested in him. The connection to the Tigers came before they signed Drew Anderson, so it’s possible that deal diminishes their interest in Keller somewhat. For the Yankees, they have a number of starters who are going to start the season on the injured list, so it seems the plan would be for Keller to start initially. As other pitchers get healthy, perhaps he could end up pushed into a relief role.

As mentioned, the thinking with the Jays would be somewhat similar. Bringing Keller into the mix could bolster the rotation but he could also end up in the bullpen if he’s not one of the top five rotation options. The Jays will presumably be balancing their desire to sign Keller with their other priorities.

RosterResource projects the Jays for a payroll of $268MM next year, which is already $10MM above where they finished in 2025. They seem to still be in the market for a closer and a big bat, with frequent connections to Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker. Doing those things and also signing Keller will depend on how high the budget can go after their deep playoff run this year.

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images

Yankees Interested In Brad Keller, MacKenzie Gore

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The Yankees are interested in free agent right-hander Brad Keller, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. They also have interest in left-hander MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post.

On paper, the Yankee rotation is much stronger at the end of 2026 compared to the start. Each of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are all recovering from surgeries and are expected to start next year on the injured list. Cole and Schmidt both underwent Tommy John surgery this year, Cole in March and Schmidt in July. Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies from his elbow.

Bryan Hoch of MLB.com provided updates today. Rodón is expected to be back with the club in late April or early May. Cole is expected slightly after that, with a May/June target. Hoch didn’t mention Schmidt, but given his later surgery date, he shouldn’t be expected back until the latter parts of the upcoming season.

By the end of the season, it’s possible the rotation group includes Cole, Rodón, Schmidt, Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil and Will Warren. But to start the season, the group would have Fried, Schlittler, Gil and Warren, with guys like Allan Winans and Ryan Yarbrough in the mix for the back end. Elmer Rodriguez could be a factor but he hasn’t yet made his major league debut.

Keller has experience as a starter and a reliever. He is coming off a tremendous season working out of the Cubs’ bullpen but has been getting interest from clubs as a potential starter next year. Sherman says the Yanks are more interested in him as a reliever but they could use him out of the rotation earlier in the year as they wait for other arms to get healthy. Once guys like Cole and Rodón return to health, unless the situation has drastically changed, Keller could be pushed into a relief role.

From 2018 to 2020, Keller had pretty decent results as a starter with the Royals. He wasn’t overwhelming but he rode a grounder-heavy approach to some success. He had a 3.50 earned run average over those seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate was well below par but his 52.1% ground ball rate was quite strong. His results backed up from there, as he posted a 5.14 ERA from 2021 to 2023. He had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in October of 2023. He was back on the mound in 2024 with unimpressive results.

As mentioned, he just wrapped up a tremendous season as a reliever with the Cubs. He tossed 69 2/3 innings with a 2.07 ERA. As before, he got opponents to keep the ball on the ground at a 56.1% clip, but his 27.2% strikeout rate was a massive increase relative to his time with the Royals.

MLBTR predicted Keller could secure three years and $36MM on the open market, noting that it would be possible some clubs looked to move him back to a rotation role. The Tigers had been reportedly interested in that kind of move but that was before they added Drew Anderson, a signing which became official today. It’s possible the Anderson signing make the Tigers less likely to pursue Keller.

While Keller would be an interesting addition in his flexibility, Gore would be a much more straightforward rotation upgrade. He has been exclusively a starter over the past three years. He showed some flashes of huge upside in 2025 but finished with a middling season overall. Through the All-Star Break, he had a 3.02 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. At that time, only four starters were ahead of him in the strikeout rate column, an excellent group consisting of Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown.

He couldn’t keep it going in the second half. He went on the injured list twice, once due shoulder inflammation and the second time due to an ankle impingement. He posted a 6.75 ERA in his second-half starts around those IL stints, which led to him finishing the year with a 4.17 ERA overall.

Since Gore doesn’t have Keller’s track record of relief work, it’s possible that acquiring him would eventually lead to a rotation logjam later in the year. Perhaps the Yankees aren’t worried about that, as pitching injuries will naturally thin out the group from its ideal arrangement at some point. If a surplus does come to pass, that would be the proverbial good problem to have.

Adding Gore would be cheaper than Keller in terms of dollars. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $4.7MM salary next year. He would be owed another raise in 2027 before he’s slated to become a free agent. That’s undoubtedly appealing for the Yankees, especially considering the competitive balance tax and the compounding costs involved there. However, the Yanks would also have to send a package of prospects to the Nationals. The Nats have received interest in Gore from half the league, so the bidding should be fierce.

General manager Brian Cashman said this week, per Greg Joyce of The New York Post, that he doesn’t have a set payroll for 2026. “Hal’s exact words to me continue to be, ‘Take everything that’s out there to me,’ which I will continue to do,” Cashman said, referring to owner Hal Steinbrenner.

RosterResource currently projects them for a pure payroll of $260MM, which is $36MM shy of where they finished the 2025 season. In terms of the CBT, the Yanks are just above $283MM, meaning they are less than $1MM from the third tier of the tax. If they go over the third tier, they will be subject to a higher rate of taxation and their top pick in the 2027 draft will drop by ten spots.

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images

Tigers Have Shown Interest In Brad Keller As Starter

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The Tigers are among the teams that have expressed interest in free agent righty Brad Keller as a starting pitcher, Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press wrote this afternoon. That report preceded Detroit’s agreement with swingman Drew Anderson, but it’s unlikely a one-year deal with a pitcher who hasn’t appeared in MLB since 2021 would take them out of the mix for starting pitching.

Keller is coming off a breakout year working out of the Cubs bullpen. The 30-year-old righty fired 69 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball. He emerged as Craig Counsell’s most trusted leverage arm by the end of the season. Keller recorded 25 holds and a trio of saves while relinquishing just three leads all year. He was fantastic in the second half, allowing one run while striking out 35 hitters across 27 2/3 frames. He picked up two more saves and a hold while tossing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs.

While the underlying metrics weren’t quite so dominant, Keller posted solid peripherals across the board. He punched out 27.2% of opponents against a manageable 8% walk rate. Keller got ground-balls at a 56.5% clip, the 10th-highest rate among relievers with 50+ innings. The only slight area of concern was a modest 10.8% swinging strike rate that checked in a little below the 11.5% league average.

Keller’s performance was obviously going to have plenty of teams interested in him as a reliever. As we noted on our writeup of the Top 50 Free Agents, it made sense that some clubs would view him as a rotation conversion candidate. Keller has plenty of starting experience. He was a starter for most of his six seasons as a member of the Royals. The 6’5″ righty found some early-career success as a grounder specialist at the back of the K.C. rotation.

His numbers tanked between 2021-23, and he underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome before the ’24 campaign. Keller didn’t find much success in limited MLB looks with the White Sox and Red Sox that year. He was forced to settle for a minor league contract with the Cubs last winter. Keller looked rejuvenated in a relief role, earning a roster spot out of camp and pitching his way to the top of the bullpen hierarchy before long.

While the thoracic outlet surgery could give some clubs trepidation, there’s reason for optimism if he does return to starting. He has continued to use a five-pitch mix out of the bullpen. He had no issues handling left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .223/.293/.277 slash with a 26% strikeout rate over 123 plate appearances. Keller doesn’t have pristine command but has shown good enough control to work into the middle innings as a starter. While he obviously wouldn’t maintain this past season’s 97.2 MPH average fastball velocity in longer stints, it’s not unreasonable to imagine him sitting 94-95 over five-plus innings.

MLBTR predicted Keller for a three-year, $36MM contract. That baked in the possibility that he could sign somewhere as a starter. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning that Keller indeed seems on track to pull a three-year deal. The Tigers have yet to sign a free agent for more than two seasons under fourth-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris.

Keller would nevertheless fit their general operating procedure of targeting the middle tiers of free agency. Detroit has also been linked to Michael King and Zac Gallen and have been more loosely floated as a potential Ranger Suárez suitor. They also reportedly kicked the tires on a reliever to starter move with Ryan Helsley, but he’s off the board on a two-year deal to close for the Orioles.

The rotation currently lines up with Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize in the top four spots. Rookie Troy Melton is probably the in-house favorite for the fifth starter role. He’d compete with Anderson, Keider Montero and Sawyer Gipson-Long for that job. They can certainly use another starter, and Keller would have the fallback to pitch in high-leverage relief if he doesn’t win a rotation spot out of camp.

Brad Keller Drawing Interest As Starting Pitcher

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Teams have shown interest in free agent right-hander Brad Keller as both a starter and reliever, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. It’s not clear which teams are involved, though Sherman writes that the Yankees have not emerged as a serious suitor to this point.

Keller is coming off a breakout year working out of the Cubs bullpen. The 30-year-old righty fired 69 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball. He emerged as Craig Counsell’s most trusted leverage arm by the end of the season. Keller recorded 25 holds and a trio of saves while relinquishing just three leads all year. He was fantastic in the second half, allowing one run while striking out 35 hitters across 27 2/3 frames. He picked up two more saves and a hold while tossing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs.

While the underlying metrics weren’t quite so dominant, Keller posted solid peripherals across the board. He punched out 27.2% of opponents against a manageable 8% walk rate. Keller got ground-balls at a 56.5% clip, the 10th-highest rate among relievers with 50+ innings. The only slight area of concern was a modest 10.8% swinging strike rate that checked in a little below the 11.5% league average.

Keller’s performance was obviously going to have plenty of teams interested in him as a reliever. As we noted on our writeup of the Top 50 Free Agents, it made sense that some clubs would view him as a rotation conversion candidate. Keller has plenty of starting experience. He was a starter for most of his six seasons as a member of the Royals. The 6’5″ righty found some early-career success as a grounder specialist at the back of the K.C. rotation.

His numbers tanked between 2021-23, and he underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome before the ’24 campaign. Keller didn’t find much success in limited MLB looks with the White Sox and Red Sox that year. He was forced to settle for a minor league contract with the Cubs last winter. Keller looked rejuvenated in a relief role, earning a roster spot out of camp and pitching his way to the top of the bullpen hierarchy before long.

While the thoracic outlet surgery could give some clubs trepidation, there’s reason for optimism if he does return to starting. He has continued to use a five-pitch mix out of the bullpen. He had no issues handling left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .223/.293/.277 slash with a 26% strikeout rate over 123 plate appearances. Keller doesn’t have pristine command but has shown good enough control to work into the middle innings as a starter. While he obviously wouldn’t maintain this past season’s 97.2 MPH average fastball velocity in longer stints, it’s not unreasonable to imagine him sitting 94-95 over five-plus innings.

MLBTR predicted Keller for a three-year, $36MM contract. That baked in the possibility that he could sign somewhere as a starter. That kind of move has become commonplace in recent seasons. Garrett Crochet, Seth Lugo, Michael King, Clay Holmes, Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are a few of the pitchers who built back to starting after years of pitching in relief.

The Braves were reportedly set to offer Jeff Hoffman the same opportunity until a flagged physical led them to walk away from a $45-48MM agreement altogether. Luke Weaver said in September that he’d be open to offers as a starter. It’s not without risk — Hicks and A.J. Puk are among the pitchers who simply couldn’t cut it because of command or injury issues — but even an outcome like the López or Holmes conversions would be a solid return on investment for a three-year contract in the $12-14MM range annually.

Brad Keller Interested In Re-Signing With Cubs

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Right-hander Brad Keller is slated for free agency but would seemingly be very happy to be a Cub again next year. “Chicago is my favorite city,” Keller said, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “I love being in Chicago. I love playing for the Cubs. This is definitely a place that I want to come back to and enjoy. I know a lot of these guys are returning to this clubhouse, and I feel like there’s something special here. I would love to be a part of it, for sure.”

Keller, 30, is going to have a far more robust market than he did a year ago. Coming into 2025, he had to settle for a minor league deal with the Cubs. He spent a lot of 2023 on the injured list due to shoulder problems and then had surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in the fall of that year. He was back on the mound in 2024 but tossed 41 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Red Sox with a 5.44 earned run average.

No one was willing to give him a big league spot last winter but he has raised his stock considerably since then. The Cubs added him to their 40-man roster after the Tokyo Series but before domestic Opening Day. He went on to toss 69 2/3 innings out of the Chicago bullpen this year with a 2.07 ERA. He struck out 27.2% of batters faced, limited walks to an 8% clip and got opponents to hit grounders on 56.1% of balls in play.

The ERA is probably a bit misleading. Keller’s .243 batting average on balls in play and 81.6% strand rate were both the fortunate side. But his 2.93 FIP and 3.04 SIERA still suggest it would have been a great year even with neutral luck from the baseball gods. The Cubs moved him into a leverage role as the year wore on, with Keller eventually earning three saves and 25 holds. He made the postseason roster and tossed 5 2/3 playoff innings with just one run allowed.

Some teams may still have some hesitations about committing to Keller based on one strong season but we’ve seen clubs spend on players in these kinds of situations before. Last winter, Jeff Hoffman got three years and $33MM from the Blue Jays after two good years in Philadelphia’s bullpen. He actually had higher offers from Baltimore and Atlanta before concerns about his shoulder tamped down his market somewhat. The prior offseason, Robert Stephenson was able to get the same $33MM over three years from the Angels after just half a season of dominance with the Rays.

It’s also possible some team envisions Keller as a possible starter next year. He was largely in the rotation with the Royals from 2018 to 2022, with some decent results in there as a ground ball guy. He had a 3.50 ERA over the first three years of that span. His 16.8% strikeout rate was subpar but he got grounders at a 52.1% clip. His ERA rose above 5.00 in his final two years in Kansas City and he had his aforementioned injury-marred 2023 and uninspiring bounceback season in 2024.

Some pitchers have been put back into starting roles after reaching free agency lately, with mixed results. Seth Lugo got $15MM over two years from the Padres but then opted out of the second year of that deal and got $45MM over three years from the Royals. Last winter, Clay Holmes got three years and $38MM from the Mets. He had a longer track record of relief success than Keller but hadn’t really started in the majors. That deal has worked out well so far, with Holmes posting a 3.53 ERA in 165 2/3 innings this year. Jordan Hicks, another ground ball specialist, also got $44MM over four years but his rotation conversion didn’t go nearly as well. Reynaldo López got $30MM over three years from Atlanta and the first year went great but the second year was marred by injuries.

Whether or not any club wants to try Keller in the rotation remains to be seen. Even as a pure reliever, he has a case for a strong multi-year deal. That’s more than the Cubs like to spend on the bullpen. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations five years ago, the club hasn’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever. As shown in MLBTR Contract Tracker, Hoyer has only once given out more than $5MM, which was a $9MM deal for Héctor Neris.

The club clearly prefers to find diamonds in the rough, like they did by getting Keller in his minor league deal last winter. Perhaps that means Keller will get paid elsewhere as the Cubs look to find another Keller in the bargain bin. If they do want to bring him back, they should have the ability to do it. RosterResource estimates that the Cubs had a $206MM payroll in 2025 with just $136MM slated for next year’s roster.

They will have other needs, including the rotation. It’s also possible they look to re-sign Kyle Tucker or perhaps make another run at Alex Bregman. But the bullpen should also be a focus this winter. In addition to Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Ryan Brasier, Michael Soroka and Aaron Civale are impending free agents. Andrew Kittredge could be added to the list, though he has a $9MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. Colin Rea has a $6MM club option with a $750K buyout. In short, bolstering the bullpen will be on the to-do list this winter.

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia On Injured List

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September 8: Palencia has been placed on the 15-day injured list, according to multiple media personnel (including Marquee’s Taylor McGregor). Ethan Roberts has been recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take the open bullpen spot. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that Keller is likely to step into the ninth inning while Palencia is on the shelf.

September 7: The Cubs may be looking at going into the postseason without their closer. Daniel Palencia entered the ninth inning of Chicago’s game against the Nationals earlier today, but surrendered five runs and was pulled without recording an out. The team termed Palencia’s ailment “shoulder tightness” at the time of his removal, but manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) following the game that, more specifically, Palencia was suffering from a posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder.

While specifics beyond that diagnosis were few and far between in Counsell’s description of the situation, it seems all but certain that Palencia will require a trip to the injured list and be out for quite a while. Strains can naturally vary in severity substantially, but one relatively recent example of a pitcher dealing with a posterior capsule strain is Mets right-hander Kodai Senga, who was shut down due to a moderate strain in February of 2024. That kicked off what was more or less a lost season for Senga due to multiple injuries, but the initial diagnosis for that strain was expected to shut him down from throwing for three weeks.

A similar timeline would knock Palencia out for, at minimum, the remainder of the regular season and would likely result in him returning this year only if the Cubs make a relatively deep run into the postseason. Of course, it’s possible that Palencia’s capsule strain proves to be a relatively mild one that requires less time off, and it’s not impossible to imagine that he could be back on the big league mound for in time for the tail end of the regular season; a 15-day stint on the injured list, at this point, would allow Palencia to return to action during the club’s final two series of the regular season against the Mets and Cardinals.

However long Palencia ultimately ends up being sidelined, the news is a brutal blow to Chicago. Acquired from the A’s in exchange for Andrew Chafin at the 2021 trade deadline, Palencia made his big league debut in 2023 but has rounded into form as a dominant closer this year. Entering play today, the 25-year-old had posted a 2.12 ERA with a 2.59 FIP and 28.8% strikeout rate in 51 innings of work for the Cubs this year. He’s walked just 7.8% of his opponents faced and picked up 22 saves in 24 opportunities this year to go with six holds. That dominant production convinced the Cubs to back off the from the high leverage relief market. They targeted Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers to bolster their bullpen rather than landing a more surefire closer like David Bednar or Jhoan Duran.

With Palencia seemingly out of commission for the time being, manager Craig Counsell will now have to reconfigure his bullpen for the stretch run. Rogers has struggled since joining the Cubs, but Kittredge figures to be part of the late-inning mix for the Cubs alongside Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and perhaps Drew Pomeranz. Keller and Thielbar in particular appear likely to be in the conversation for save opportunities given their dominant seasons with the Cubs this year. Keller has a 2.20 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 59 appearances, while Thielbar sports a 2.15 ERA and 2.68 FIP in 58 outings.

Palencia’s injury is the latest frustrating development for a Cubs team that already had both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker miss todays game due to injuries. Fortunately, Counsell provided a positive update to reporters (including Levine) regarding the status of both hitters. Counsell indicated that Crow-Armstrong, who exited yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his shin, could be back in the lineup as soon as tomorrow for the start of the club’s series in Atlanta. As for Tucker, the All-Star hasn’t played since exiting Tuesday’s game against the Braves and Levine notes that he’s unlikely to be back in the lineup tomorrow. Even so, Counsell suggested that his running improved today and that he’s trending in the right direction towards a return to action in the near future.

Cubs Designate Cody Poteet For Assignment

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The Cubs announced Thursday that they’ve designated right-hander Cody Poteet for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to righty Brad Keller, who has now formally been selected to the roster. The Cubs also placed righties Tyson Miller (left hip impingement), righty Ryan Brasier (groin strain) and infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan (elbow sprain) on the injured list and recalled righty Eli Morgan from Triple-A Iowa.

Poteet, 30, was the lone player the Cubs received in the trade sending Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. That swap was always more about dumping Bellinger’s salary than adding to the system, and today’s DFA only further underscores that reality.

A fourth-rounder by the Marlins in 2015, Poteet has pitched in parts of three big league seasons between Miami and New York. He posted a 2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 frames for the Yanks last year and carries an overall 3.80 mark in 83 MLB innings. He was sharp in 53 minor league innings last year as well, recording a 3.40 ERA. Poteet isn’t a flamethrower, sitting 93.8 mph with his four-seamer and 92.6 mph with his sinker. He complements those fastballs with a slider, curveball and changeup, rounding out a five-pitch arsenal.

Poteet has punched out 20.2% of his big league opponents against a 10.2% walk rate. Both are worse than average, though not necessarily by wide margins. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, he’s logged a 4.47 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. Poteet still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so if a team acquires him in a trade or claims him off waivers, he can be optioned directly to Triple-A. That could make him an appealing target for clubs seeking affordable rotation depth.

The Cubs owed Bellinger $52.5MM over the next two seasons, though he can opt out of the contract this year and trim $20MM off that guarantee if he feels there are greener pastures in free agency. Chicago paid $5MM of that sum to help facilitate the swap but saved $47.5MM overall. Bellinger was seen as a poor fit on the roster, with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki in the outfield mix and Michael Busch at first base. Time will tell whether the club is better off for it, but for the moment the only thing they have to show for the trade is salary relief and about $25MM of breathing room between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.

Cubs To Select Brad Keller; Ben Brown To Be Fifth Starter

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The Cubs have informed Brad Keller that he has made the Cubs’ roster for domestic Opening Day. Manager Craig Counsell passed the news along to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Cubs will have to make a corresponding move to get him onto the 40-man. Also, per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, Ben Brown has won the final rotation spot over Colin Rea.

Keller, 29, pitched to a 4.22 ERA in 10 2/3 innings this spring but turned heads with improved velocity and sharper breaking pitches. He’ll grab a spot in the Chicago bullpen. Given his background as a starter and his 10 2/3 innings in just six appearances, he’ll give Counsell an option who can pitch multiple innings.

Keller was a Rule 5 pick by the Royals out of the D-backs system back in 2017, and for three years he was a solid, durable member of the Kansas City rotation. His effectiveness began to wane in 2021, however, and injuries plagued him in the coming seasons. By 2023, his command had completely eroded. He walked 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings before landing on the injured list. A series of tests eventually led to a thoracic outlet syndrome diagnosis and season-ending surgery. He returned to the majors with the White Sox and Red Sox in 2024 but struggled in both spots.

The 25-year-old Brown came to the Cubs in the 2022 trade that shipped David Robertson to the Phillies. Brown made his big league debut last year, tossing 55 1/3 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 38.7% grounder rate and 0.81 HR/9. He sits 96-97 mph with his four-seamer and couples that offering with a plus curveball. Brown has at times worked with a changeup in the minors as well but has deployed a two-pitch arsenal in the major thus far. He allowed a pair of runs in 2 2/3 innings versus the Dodgers in the Tokyo Series, but Brown also whiffed five of his 15 opponents there. Similarly, he’s allowed six runs in a small sample of eight spring frames but did so with a pristine 9-to-1 K/BB ratio.

Brown gets the nod over the veteran Rea, who’ll open the season in the bullpen after signing a one-year, $5MM deal in free agency this winter. The 34-year-old righty carries a 4.40 ERA in 292 innings for the Brewers across the past two seasons. He’s worked both as a starter and long reliever in that time. Rea may not start the year in the rotation, but it seems likely he’ll make a handful of starts as injuries and/or poor performance elsewhere in the rotation dictate the need for a fresh arm or even a more permanent replacement.

Cubs Leave Keegan Thompson Off Tokyo Series Travel Roster

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The Cubs are not carrying reliever Keegan Thompson among the 31 players on their Tokyo Series travel roster, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Thompson is out of options and needs to be on the MLB team or removed from the 40-man roster. While the Cubs don’t need to make any transactions until next Tuesday’s regular season opener, it’s likely they’ll designate Thompson for assignment at that point.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged that Thompson has seemingly been squeezed out of the bullpen. “It is hard to evaluate Spring Training, but ultimately, that was how we made the decision,” he told Lee. “I thought Keegan threw well here, but ultimately, we felt like some guys were better. Realistically, we knew coming into camp that we’d have to make some hard decisions.”

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, the Cubs are operating with limited roster flexibility in their bullpen. Thompson is one of six relievers on the 40-man who can’t be sent to the minors either because of their service time or out-of-options status. Colin Rea would be a seventh such reliever if he doesn’t win the fifth starter job and settles into long relief.

Non-roster invitee Brad Keller has generated positive buzz in camp. He cracked the travel roster, and while that doesn’t inherently mean he’ll make the team, the Cubs appear to be leaning towards selecting his contract. Keller, who would otherwise be able to retest free agency at the end of Spring Training, also has sufficient service time to refuse a minor league assignment once he’s on the 40-man.

The Cubs can’t accommodate all those out-of-options pitchers. They’re certainly not going to send down Porter Hodge. There’s a decent chance they’ll want to carry Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan as well. Chicago probably also needs to open two 40-man roster spots by next week. They’d need to put Keller on the 40-man if he makes the team. Top prospect Matt Shaw isn’t on the 40-man either. The Cubs haven’t officially declared that he’ll be called up, but it’s unlikely they’d have carried him on the travel roster if he weren’t going to play.

That combination of factors is likely to push Thompson off the roster. The former third-round pick hasn’t pitched much this spring. He allowed three runs on a trio of solo homers over 4 2/3 innings. Thompson worked to a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings last season. He fanned 28.3% of opponents but walked an alarming 14.2% of batters faced.

Thompson and the Cubs avoided arbitration on an $850K deal in November. If he is designated for assignment, Chicago would have five days to attempt to line up a trade or place him on waivers. With three years of arbitration control and a salary marginally above the league minimum, there’s a decent chance he’d draw interest from another team.

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