Orioles Rumors

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Alex Cobb Signing

By Jeff Todd | March 21, 2018 at 9:06am CDT

After watching a variety of quality free agents settle for shorter and less-lucrative contracts than expected — including established veteran starter Lance Lynn — it seemed that right-hander Alex Cobb would likewise need to take what he could get and plan to return to the open market in the near future in search of a heftier pact. Instead, he struck a surprising four-year, $57MM deal yesterday with the Orioles.

Of course, that contract wouldn’t have seemed out of line when the offseason got underway. MLBTR tabbed Cobb the 11th-best free agent available and predicted he’d secure a four-year contract with a $48MM guarantee — not far off from where he ultimately landed. But we also guessed four and $56MM for Lynn, who got just $12MM from the Twins despite signing a few weeks before Cobb and carrying a broadly similar overall profile in terms of age and track record. And when we reexamined the market before Lynn’s signing, we downgraded expectations for both hurlers.

Needless to say, this winter’s market has been something of a moving target. At the end of the day, though, Cobb will land a sizable but generally market-rate deal with an organization that came into the winter as perhaps the most pitching-needy would-be contender in baseball. If the deal is finalized, Cobb will join Andrew Cashner and the re-signed Chris Tillman as free-agent additions to a staff that already featured Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.

There are still questions up and down that five-man crew, but the overall talent base on the pitching staff is quite a bit higher now than at the outset of the offseason. One can argue that the O’s ought not to have made a commitment of this magnitude entering the organization’s final season of control over Manny Machado and Adam Jones. On the other hand, it’s hard to condemn a club for spending to win, especially when so many others are focusing on the future. And while the Cobb contract hardly seems a bargain, it’s roughly in range of his market value and arguably delivers some upside given Cobb’s history as a top-of-the-rotation presence. He was, after all, one of the most effective starters in the AL East in 2013-14 and delivered 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching in 2017.

How would you grade the move from the team’s perspective? (Link for app users.)

AL East Notes: Marrero, Holt, Swihart, Machado, Morales

By Mark Polishuk and Jeff Todd | March 20, 2018 at 10:28pm CDT

Alex Cobb’s agreement with the Orioles is the day’s biggest news out of the AL East, but here are some more notable items from around the division…

The Red Sox seem to be inclined to carry the out-of-options Blake Swihart on the active roster to open the season, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. While the club obviously feels it doesn’t want to lose out on his upside, that decision would also create some constraints elsewhere — perhaps forcing the Sox to make a move instead with one of their utility infielders. Indeed, as Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes (subscription link), the Sox have begun putting out feelers with other organizations regarding Deven Marrero (who is also out of option) and Brock Holt. While it’s not clear that either has drawn significant interest, it seems the team is preparing to move one of them or another similar player as part of its roster-maintenance efforts at the tail end of camp.
Manny Machado’s move back to shortstop was inspired by his love for the position, the Orioles star tells ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, not as a way to better position himself for free agency next winter. “I think a lot of people are saying, ’He’s going over there because he wants more money or more value.’ It doesn’t come down to money or more value,” Machado said. “I’ve already established myself as a player. I’m worth what I’m worth already. It doesn’t matter if I’m at short or third. The transition over there is because that’s where my heart is. That’s what I do.” Machado’s preparation for the position switch included changes to his diet and offseason training regimen, and scouts have given promising early reviews about Machado’s defensive prowess at shortstop.
Kendrys Morales lost weight in the offseason and is hoping to adjust his swing so that he hits fewer grounders in 2018, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. Due to his lack of speed and opposing fielders playing the shift, Morales grounded into 22 double plays last season, which helped contributed to his below-average 97 wRC+ despite 28 homers and lots of hard contact. The subpar offensive performance and Morales’ lack of defensive contributions made him a sub-replacement level (-0.6 fWAR) player in his first year with the Blue Jays.

Orioles Close To Agreement With Alex Cobb

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2018 at 5:50pm CDT

5:50PM: If completed, the deal would be a four-year pact, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link).

5:19PM: Rosenthal hears from a source that a deal is indeed close, though the three-year/$50MM terms from Rosenthal’s previous report are “not accurate.”

4:39PM: Right-hander Alex Cobb’s long stay in the free agent market could be nearing an end, as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link) “there’s a strong belief that” Cobb is closing in on a new contract. The Orioles are considered by most to be the favorites to sign the 30-year-old, according to Passan, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports that the deal between the two sides is expected to be at least a three-year pact. Rosenthal adds that the O’s and Cobb had been discussing contracts in the range of three years and $50MM.

Cobb and the O’s have been linked for much of the offseason, as the righty was a natural fit for a Baltimore team that entered the winter with a dire need for pitching. The Orioles have already turned to free agency to sign Andrew Cashner and re-sign Chris Tillman, with those two veterans slotting in behind Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy in the rotation. Cobb would not only be a decided upgrade over current fifth starter candidates Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes Jr., and Miguel Castro, but the argument could be made that Cobb would be the best starter on Baltimore’s entire staff.

As Passan noted, Cobb has been holding out for a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one-year contracts that several notable players (i.e. Lance Lynn, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Logan Morrison, Neil Walker) have been forced to settle for in recent weeks due to the unprecedented lack of activity in the free agent market. Given this environment, a deal in the $50MM neighborhood would be a particularly nice result for Cobb and his representatives at the Beverly Hills Sports Council. That would actually be higher than the $48MM MLB Trade Rumors predicted Cobb would receive when we ranked him 11th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, though we projected that $48MM to come over a four-year contract.

AL East Notes: Torres, Pomeranz, Davis, Orioles, McKay

By Mark Polishuk | March 18, 2018 at 6:33pm CDT

The Yankees will deploy Gleyber Torres in roughly a “50-50” split between second base and shortstop at Triple-A this season, manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other reporters. Torres has spent the vast majority of his four pro seasons as a shortstop but received some time at second base over the last two seasons and third base in 2017. One of the game’s top prospects, Torres is expected to make his big league debut at some point this season, and second base could be his ultimate position in New York given Didi Gregorius’ presence at short. With Gregorius slated for free agency after the 2019 season, however, Torres’ presence gives the Yankees flexibility at both middle infield positions going forward.

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

“I felt great. I felt normal,” Drew Pomeranz told media (including the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman) after a 33-pitch simulated throwing session today. The Red Sox southpaw has missed time with a mild flexor strain and his status for the start of the season is still in question, though today’s result was a good step for Pomeranz. Between this outing and the positive updates on Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez yesterday, there is a chance Boston could begin the year without having to turn to minor league depth starters Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson.
The Orioles optioned Austin Wynns to Triple-A today, as reported by MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli and others. Wynns had been competing with Andrew Susac and Chance Sisco for the secondary catcher role, as Caleb Joseph is in line for the bulk of playing time behind the plate. Sisco is ranked by both MLB.com and Baseball America as the third-best prospect in Baltimore’s system, and has long been considered the Orioles’ catcher of the future. With that in mind, however, the O’s may prefer to keep Sisco in the minors for now in order to give him everyday at-bats rather than limit him to a part-time role.
As also noted in Ghiroli’s piece, Chris Davis made his return to the Orioles’ lineup today after a two-week absence due to a forearm injury. Davis is tentatively scheduled to play in a minor league game tomorrow, assuming he feels ready to go. Despite losing a good chunk of the spring to the injury, Davis is still expected to be ready for Opening Day.
Both the Rays and Brendan McKay are intent on seeing if the top prospect can reach the big leagues as a two-way player, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times outlines how McKay and the team are preparing and managing his workload for this unique challenge. McKay, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft, is thus far considered to be more polished as a pitcher, according to both the Rays and rival scouts. A decision may eventually have to be made about McKay’s position at some point in the future, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards anytime soon. “This is absolutely no gimmick. This is for real,” Rays farm director Mitch Lukevics said. “This is every day, seven days a week that we’re getting Brendan McKay prepared to take on a full season and do both, as a starting pitcher and first baseman, with some DH.”

Mark Trumbo Out Three To Four Weeks With Quad Strain

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2018 at 2:52pm CDT

Orioles designated hitter Mark Trumbo has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 quadriceps strain and will be out of action for the next three to four weeks, tweets Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Meoli adds in a followup tweet that top prospect Ryan Mountcastle has a nondisplaced fracture in his right hand and will be sidelined for the next four to six weeks.

The injury to Trumbo likely means he’ll open the season on the 10-day disabled list. While it’s unfortunate news for Trumbo, that could bode well for both Colby Rasmus and Danny Valencia, each of whom is in camp on a non-roster deal and hoping to make the 25-man roster out of camp. Both had decent chances of making the team anyhow, though an early absence from Trumbo creates an easier path to playing time — particularly for the right-handed-hitting Valencia. It’s possible that an injury to Trumbo could also open the door for Pedro Alvarez, another veteran in camp with the O’s on a minor league pact.

As for the 21-year-old Mountcastle, he has just 39 games above the Class-A Advanced under his belt, so he was always going to be ticketed for the minors anyhow. The loss of up to six weeks, though, will slow the beginning of his season and further delay his ultimate path to the Orioles. There’s been plenty of debate about his eventual position on the diamond, but Mountcastle’s bat has been impressive in the minors for the most part. He hit .314/.343/.542 in 379 plate appearances at Class-A Advanced last year before struggling in his brief time in Double-A. Baseball America, (#71), Baseball Prospectus (#65) and MLB.com (#98) all ranked him among the game’s Top 100 prospects entering the season.

East Notes: Walker, Reed, Nationals, Orioles, Rays

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2018 at 11:54am CDT

Neil Walker’s one-year, $4MM deal with the Yankees seems like one of the better bargains achieved by a team in an unprecedentedly slow offseason for free agents, and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks back to last offseason when the infielder was discussing a longer-term pact with the Mets. At some point last winter, the Mets floated a three-year extension for Walker that would’ve been worth “about” $42MM, per Davidoff. Presumably that would include the 2017 season, during which he was already set to be paid $17.2MM, as it seems unlikely both that the Mets would offer three new years with Walker returning from back surgery and equally unlikely that Walker’s camp would reject said notion (though that’s just my own speculation). If that number is indeed accurate, Walker will obviously come out behind ($21.2MM over the first two of those three seasons), though certainly no one saw this type of free-agent freeze coming. Davidoff adds that Walker’s camp tried to reignite those “contentious” discussions later in the winter, but the Mets declined.

Regarding his own free agency this past offseason, while there were some early rumblings connecting him and the Pirates, Walker tells reporters that there’s “no validity” to those rumors and that he and his agents “didn’t hear from them once the entire offseason” — even when it was clear recently that he’d come at a rather affordable rate (via Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

More out of the game’s Eastern divisions…

Addison Reed tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that playing for the Red Sox and pitching at the hallowed grounds of Fenway Park exceeded his expectations in 2017, adding: “…and I expected it to be pretty damn good.” However, Reed openly admits that a return to Boston wasn’t high on his list as he headed into free agency this winter. While he had nothing against the Red Sox and spoke glowingly of the organization, his preference was to end up with a Midwest team. (Speier notes that his wife is from Ohio.) Reed achieved that feat by landing a two-year deal with the Twins, and while he took a shorter deal than most predicted, it seems possible that that outcome was in part due to his self-imposed geographic limitations.
Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged to reporters today that right-hander Koda Glover’s shoulder is taking longer to heal than the team anticipated (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Glover’s uncertain status notwithstanding, Rizzo doesn’t feel the team needs to go outside the organization for additional bullpen help, Janes notes. The GM said he likes what he’s seen from right-handers Trevor Gott and Austin Adams this spring, and the Nats of course have deepened their bullpen over the past nine months with the acquisitions of Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler and, earlier this spring, Joaquin Benoit.
Janes also tweets that Rizzo was adamant that the Nationals “would never” keep top outfield prospect Victor Robles in a bench role. While many Nats fans may be hoping that the ballyhooed 20-year-old can make the roster in a reserve capacity, Rizzo’s comments further reinforce the idea that the Nats will keep Robles in a regular role with Triple-A Syracuse until an everyday opening presents itself at the big league level.
The Orioles’ roster further took shape yesterday with the news that outfielder Joey Rickard has been optioned to Triple-A and veteran infielder Ruben Tejada was assigned to minor league camp. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com looks at the team’s utility infielder opening, noting that Engelb Vielma, Luis Sardinas and Danny Valencia are all candidates. While Valencia, of course, doesn’t have shortstop experience, the O’s have two viable shortstop options on the roster in Manny Machado and Tim Beckham. Kubatko adds that the O’s could take a look at Erick Aybar if he doesn’t make the Twins’ roster this spring, and he notes that Baltimore could also pursue a reunion with Ryan Flaherty if he does not break camp with the Phillies.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tackles a host of Rays roster scenarios as he strives to project the 25-man unit that’ll break camp for Opening Day. Interestingly, he paints veteran lefty Dan Jennings as a potential trade candidate and doesn’t project him to make it to the Opening Day roster, instead projecting starting pitching prospects Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough (a fellow lefty) to crack the Opening Day bullpen. Topkin runs through playing time scenarios in the outfield and all around the infield, so Rays fans in particular will want to take a look at one of the more educated guesses you’ll come across for how things will shake out between now and Opening Day.

AL East Notes: Tulo, Axford, Clippard, Torres, O’s, Cobb, BoSox

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | March 13, 2018 at 10:58pm CDT

Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons signaled on Monday that Troy Tulowitzki won’t be ready for Opening Day, writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. “I think you can write Tulo off [for Opening Day] right now,” said Gibbons of his shortstop, who is currently dealing with a bone spur in his right heel. Tulo’s lack of availability likely means the Jays will carry just seven relievers to open the season Morosi notes, which will allow the team to bring four middle infielders — Devon Travis, Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte and Gift Ngoepe — when they break camp.

Meanwhile, both John Axford and Tyler Clippard are likely to make the Blue Jays’ bullpen after signing minor league deals, per Morosi. Gibbons praised a new two-seam fastball that Axford has been utilizing as well as improved control from the veteran righty. “What’s jumped out at me is he’s keeping that thing in the zone,” said Gibbons. “What little I’ve known in the past, at times he could scatter, but really that hasn’t happened at all this spring. That’s encouraging. And he still throws really, really hard.”

Orioles Sign Hunter Cervenka

By Jeff Todd | March 13, 2018 at 10:04am CDT

The Orioles have signed lefty Hunter Cervenka to a minor-league deal, per a club announcement. He’ll join the minor-league side of camp.

Cervenka, 28, lost his 40-man spot with the Marlins late last year and was released a few days ago. Things just never worked out in Miami after the team picked him up from the Braves via trade in the summer of 2016.

Baltimore will hope that Cervenka can finally learn to tamp down on the free passes that have long plagued him. He’ll presumably spend the rest of camp fighting for a placement with one of the club’s top affiliates and, eventually, a chance to earn a call-up if a need arises at the MLB level.

Quick Hits: Miller, Kikuchi, Cashner, Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2018 at 12:09am CDT

Andrew Miller’s four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees from the 2014-15 offseason has become one of the most influential contracts in recent baseball history, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman opines. Miller’s contract set a new standard for non-closer relievers, and its value has only grown in import thanks to the Indians’ usage of Miller as a multi-inning fireman. As teams have put a focus on deep and flexible bullpens, relievers have been increasingly well-compensated in free agency; even during this unusually slow offseason, several relief arms have scored hefty multi-year commitments. The fact that many notable relievers out-earned several notable sluggers and starting pitchers this winter is of no small concern to Miller, who is also a Players Association Representative. “We have to understand the economics of how this works. If one position or one skill is valued more highly, you probably will have another skill valued not as highly,” Miller noted.

Some more from around the baseball world as we head into a new week…

Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has continued to express interest in a jump to Major League Baseball, with some in the industry feeling that the 26-year-old could land close to a $100MM deal from a North American team, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required). Kikuchi has a 2.76 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and a 2.30 K/BB rate over 871 2/3 innings for Seibu (plus a brief stint in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year). Since Kikuchi is older than 25, he is exempt from the international bonus pool system, and he should command a hefty contract from teams bidding for his services should Seibu decide to post him — Kikuchi isn’t eligible for complete free agency until 2020.
Andrew Cashner wouldn’t have signed his two-year, $16MM deal with the Orioles unless he was allowed to keep his beard, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports. The O’s usually have a ban on facial hair (besides “a well-manicured goatee”) but an exemption was made for Cashner, provided that he keeps his beard neatly trimmed. “I just think it’s a part of who I am, and it’s a part of my personality — it’s just me. I think this length is kind of what it’s supposed to be, I guess,” Cashner said, who noted that he disliked having to shave his beard when he played for the Marlins, another club with a facial hair ban.
The Cubs are probably done their major offseason shopping, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes (subscription required), as the team is likely to save its remaining money for potential in-season additions. By Mooney’s calculations, Chicago has roughly $13MM left for the trade deadline without going over the $197MM luxury tax threshold.

East Notes: Lynn, Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 9:33am CDT

The Orioles had talks over the winter with then-free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, who finally exited the market Saturday when he agreed to sign with the Twins. Lynn ended up with a one-year, $12MM pact, but he perhaps could have gotten a longer deal in Baltimore. The Orioles may have been willing to give Lynn either three guaranteed years or two with a vesting option, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Lynn would have been the third (and likely the best) starter to sign with the Orioles in recent weeks. They previously added Andrew Cashner and re-signed Chris Tillman. There remains room for improvement, which general manager Dan Duquette realizes. “We need to find some answers to our pitching staff,” Duquette admitted to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com as part of a Q&A that’s worth reading in full. While Duquette noted that “it’s getting kind of late in the spring training period for pitchers to get ready,” he’s nonetheless not ruling out adding another starter in free agency or via trade.

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