Poll: Who Will Advance To The World Series?
Both League Championship Series are now set, following the Dodgers’ 2-1 victory over the Giants in Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Over the next week-plus, we’ll see the Astros (home field advantage) battle the Red Sox for the AL pennant while the Braves (home field advantage) take on the Dodgers for the NL crown.
All four teams are dealing with either uncertainty surrounding a key player. It’s still not clear whether the Astros will have Lance McCullers Jr. for the ALCS after he exited his last start against the White Sox due to forearm discomfort and underwent an MRI. On the other side of this matchup, Red Sox star third baseman Rafael Devers has been playing through a forearm injury that has impacted his swing but has yet to detract from his production.
The Braves, meanwhile, don’t know when or whether they’ll get slugger Jorge Soler back into the mix after he tested positive for Covid-19 just hours before their own Game 5 showdown against Milwaukee. The Dodgers have been without Max Muncy throughout the postseason, and both manager Dave Roberts and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman were deliberately vague when asked about him following last night’s win (Twitter links via Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).
With just four teams remaining in the field and a fresh pair of best-of-seven series set to kick off over the next two days, it seems like a good time to give MLBTR readers a chance to weigh in on who they’re taking in the ALCS and the NLCS (and perhaps an avenue to voice their thoughts on any, um… questionable… calls from last night’s game).
Who's going to the World Series?
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Dodgers and Astros 39% (5,998)
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Dodgers and Red Sox 27% (4,164)
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Braves and Red Sox 19% (3,023)
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Braves and Astros 15% (2,321)
Total votes: 15,506
Looking Ahead To The ALCS Rotations
The Red Sox will go with Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi in the first two games of the ALCS against the Astros, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who might be available for game three.
The uncertainty stems not from an uneven rotation, but from an uncertain group of relievers. Manager Alex Cora’s other available starters – Eduardo Rodriguez, Tanner Houck, and Nick Pivetta – will be available out in the bullpen for the start of the series, writes MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. That’s a strategy that worked for Cora in the ALDS. Pivetta proved crucial out of the pen against the Rays, a performance redolent of Eovaldi’s own in the 2018 World Series. Houck tossed seven innings of relief in the series as well, yielding just a pair of runs.
Whereas the Red Sox were able to patchwork their bullpen for a four-game series win against the Rays, they will likely need an even more dynamic approach to survive a seven-game tilt against the Astros’ potent offense. There is definite potential for this series to turn into a slugfest, not only because these two clubs boast the first and fifth ranked offenses in the game by runs scored in the regular season, but because the Astros are likely to be without Lance McCullers Jr. Results of the MRI on his sore forearm have yet to be revealed.
McCullers may not be viewed nationally as an ace, he’s been nothing short of stellar in the postseason. He owns a 2.83 ERA in 57 1/3 career postseason innings.
And while McCullers can boast the distinction of having started a game seven of the World Series back in 2017 (a win), he could be replaced by another righty who’s held that honor. Zack Greinke started game seven of the World Series in 2019 for Houston (a loss), and though he’s not likely to put up a full starter’s load, he could be used as an opener in McCullers’ stead, writes The Athletic’s Jack Kaplan. Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Jake Odorizzi are also candidates to pick up bulk innings if McCullers is unavailable.
What we do know is that Framber Valdez will take on Sale in game one, while Luis Garcia will go head-to-head with Eovaldi in game two, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Red Sox have the experience edge, but Valdez is no stranger to postseason success. Garcia, meanwhile, has at least gotten his feet wet in the playoffs: he had a scoreless two-inning outing in 2020 and 2 2/3 innings as the starter in game three versus the White Sox.
Latest On Lance McCullers Jr.
1:27 pm: Houston general manager James Click tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters that the club is still evaluating the results of McCullers’ MRI.
12:51 pm: Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. left his final start of the club’s Division Series win over the White Sox after four innings due to some tightness in his forearm. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network now reports (Twitter link) that McCullers is likely unavailable for the upcoming AL Championship Series against the Red Sox, which is scheduled to begin on Friday. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that he might be able to return for the World Series, should the Astros advance.
It doesn’t seem to be a long-term concern, as Heyman reported this morning that an MRI suggested McCullers “should be fine in the long run.” That aligns with the pitcher’s initial assessment of the injury, as he told reporters on Tuesday that he didn’t believe the issue to be related to his ligament. McCullers missed the entire 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Given that injury history, it’s no surprise the Astros are expected to play things cautiously with McCullers over the coming days. He remains a vital part of the franchise’s long-term future, having signed a five-year, $85MM extension in March that’ll take effect beginning in 2022.
Still, his (presumed) absence will be felt over the upcoming series, as McCullers is arguably the Astros’ top pitcher. This season, he worked 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA/4.01 SIERA ball. As he typically does, the righty posted well above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates (27% and 56.4%, respectively). That offset an elevated 11.1% walk percentage to allow McCullers to post the fifth sub-4.00 ERA season in his six-year MLB career.
In McCullers’ absence, Houston looks likely to turn to some combination of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Zack Greinke to start against Boston. Jake Odorizzi was a healthy scratch for the Division Series, although he could be brought back onto the ALCS roster in McCullers’ place to offer an additional starting and/or multi-inning relief option.
Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency
Carlos Correa‘s top priority is getting the Astros back to the World Series, so while the star shortstop’s free agency will be a hot topic once the season is over, Correa doesn’t want his 2021 campaign to end any time soon. However, Correa did address his pending trip to the open market while speaking with NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer, and seemed to hint that a reunion in Houston seems unlikely.
The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”
In his more recent remarks, Correa again addressed those preseason contract talks, saying “It was like, ‘Take it or leave it; this is what we’ve got.’ And now my value has gone up. If they didn’t want to meet my price in spring training, now that I led the league in [Baseball Reference] WAR at 7.2 and I’m in the playoffs helping the team, I don’t know if they’ll meet my price now.”
Earlier this week, Houston owner Jim Crane said that he feels his team still has “a chance” to retain Correa, and that the Astros will “definitely be in the mix” with the shortstop’s other suitors. The Astros haven’t signed a contract longer than five years during Crane’s tenure, and while the owner indicated that “things can change” on that front, Correa seems to have his eye on a much longer commitment.
Correa celebrated his 27th birthday only a few weeks ago, making him a rare top-tier free agent who is hitting the market at a younger age. “A lot of people don’t believe in 10-year contracts and in long-term deals and all that. But when you look at most of the 10-year contracts they’ve been giving out, the long-term deals, they’re players that are 31, 30, 32,” the shortstop noted. “I’m going to be 27 on my first year. I’m young, I’m healthy, and I perform. So we’ll see what happens.”
While another championship ring would perfectly cap things off for Correa, 2021 has already been an excellent platform year for the impending free agent. Shohei Ohtani was technically the overall bWAR leader due to his unique two-way contributions, but as Correa noted, the shortstop did indeed lead all regular position players in bWAR while hitting .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs over 640 plate appearances. That also marks his highest number of PA since 2016, as Correa avoided the injuries have hampered him for the previous four years and missed only a week due to a stint on the COVID-related injury list.
Between his youth, All-Star production, and possibly with some doubts silenced about his durability, Correa projects as arguably the top free agent on the market this winter, let alone the top option in a loaded class of shortstops. In addition to his offensive numbers, Correa pointed out that he also led all players in defensive bWAR (2.9) in 2021, “so when you talk about shortstops that can do both things at an elite level, I think you should mention my name.”
While it remains to be seen just how high the bidding will get, Correa stressed that “I want to win. Money’s great and everything, but I don’t want to be miserable in the clubhouse, losing every day.” Wittenmyer’s piece was written through the lens of Correa as a potential fit with the Cubs, so the fact that the Cubs are coming off a losing season and may have more rebuilding to do might rule them out as a legitimate contender to sign Correa this winter. For what it’s worth, Correa did talk glowingly about a pre-draft workout at Wrigley Field in 2012, though the Cubs never got a chance to pick Correa since the Astros quickly pounced on him as the first overall selection.
Quick Hits: Hess, Washington, Padres, Black, Strom
Rays reliever David Hess announced today (via his Twitter feed) that he will be undergoing chemotherapy after doctors discovered a cancerous germ cell tumor in his chest. “As we’ve started on this journey we’ve had people circle around us and shower love, prayers, and support in ways that have been so amazing I don’t think we can even put into words how grateful my family and I are,” Hess wrote. “As we get ready to go into this treatment time, we are confident this will all be gone from my body and I’ll be back doing what I love on a baseball field soon and be healthy while doing it.” We at MLBTR wish all the best to Hess in his treatment and we’re hoping for a full and quick recovery.
More from around the league…
- Braves third base coach Ron Washington can’t interview with other teams about managerial openings until Atlanta’s postseason run is over, so Washington told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that he has yet to hear from the Padres or Mets. Washington is happy in his current position but admitted he would like to “get back in the room” for a second stint managing a big league club. It’s possible Atlanta’s playoff run could interfere with Washington’s job prospects, as if the Braves were to advance deep into the World Series, the Padres and Mets might potentially hire new managers before Washington becomes available to talk.
- If not Washington, could the Padres turn to another veteran skipper in Rockies manager Bud Black? The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders is doubtful, writing that “realistically…I don’t think the Rockies would let go of Black and I don’t know if [Padres president of baseball operations A.J.] Preller would even consider him as a candidate.” After all, Preller did fire Black back in 2015, ending Black’s previous nine-year run as the Padres’ manager. Black is under contract to the Rockies through the 2022 season, though team president Greg Feasel recently stated that the Rox had yet to speak to Black about a contract extension. The Padres’ search for a new manager has thus far connected them to several experienced former bench bosses, and Black would certainly fit the description after 14 seasons managing in San Diego and Colorado.
- Longtime Astros pitching coach Brent Strom told FOX 26’s Mark Berman that this could be his final year, though he and his wife will discuss the situation once the Astros season is over. “I’ve been doing it a long time. I’m going to be 73 years old…and so there’s a lot of life out there besides baseball that I might want to experience, but I haven’t made any decisions as of yet,” Strom said. Strom has been the Astros’ pitching coach since the 2013-14 offseason, the latest stop in almost 40 years’ worth of work in baseball as a coach and as a minor pitching instructor and coordinator for six different organizations.
Postseason Injury Notes: McCullers, La Stella, Belt, Watson
Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. departed after four frames yesterday, and manager Dusty Baker told reporters after the contest that the decision was prompted by the right-hander informing the team of some tightness in his right forearm. Pitching coach Brent Strom said after the game (video link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that McCullers acknowledged some elbow tightness, but Strom added that he’s remaining “optimistic” that the issue won’t prove to be major. McCullers, who had Tommy John surgery in 2018, told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and others that he doesn’t believe the issue to be ligament-related. The club will surely evaluate him in the coming days as it determines whether McCullers will be able to contribute to the rotation for their ALCS showdown against the Red Sox.
A couple more key injury scenarios to monitor as the postseason field narrows…
- Giants infielder Tommy La Stella exited last night’s game with the same Achilles discomfort that has plagued him for the past several weeks, manager Gabe Kapler said after the game (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Despite the ongoing issue, La Stella is expected to be ready to play for tomorrow’s winner-take-all Game 5, per Kapler. There’s an argument to be made for swapping La Stella out for a healthier Thairo Estrada, but removing La Stella from the NLDS roster would also render him ineligible to play in the NLCS. La Stella has three singles in eight at-bats, plus a pair of walks, thus far in the NLDS against the Dodgers. He hit .250/.308/.405 through 242 regular-season plate appearances during the first season of a three-year contract with the Giants. As it stands, the Giants also have Donovan Solano and Wilmer Flores as potential options at second base.
- The Giants are also seeing progress from injured first baseman Brandon Belt and left-hander Tony Watson, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter links). Belt, still hoping to return from a fractured left thumb at some point during a potential NLCS or World Series run, took grounders and made some throws yesterday. Any throwing is of some note, given that the fracture is in his throwing hand. Meanwhile, Watson tossed a bullpen session yesterday that went well enough for the Giants to believe he’ll be ready to return for the NLCS, should they qualify. Watson has been out since late September due to a shoulder strain. The 36-year-old pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings in his second stint as a Giant after being acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline.
Managerial Rumors: Boone, Espada, Showalter
The latest managerial buzz from around baseball…
- Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is “leaning toward” retaining manager Aaron Boone at the moment, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports. A Wild Card exit and a regular season that likely didn’t live up to lofty fan expectations (despite 92 wins) has made Boone an increasingly large target for ire among the fanbase, but Olney suggests Steinbrenner does not place the blame at Boone’s feet. Of course, his return (or departure) is a two-way street due to the fact that Boone’s contract expires at season’s end. The Mets and Padres will both be looking for new skippers, and it’s at least possible another opening could yet emerge. Someone with Boone’s experience could also draw interest from clubs in a variety of front-office roles, if he wished to go that route. Boone said last week that he “loves” being the Yankees’ skipper and “going to work with this group of players.”
- If Boone did happen to leave the Yankees, Olney hears from rival executives that Astros bench coach Joe Espada could be one of the candidates to become New York’s next manager. Espada is a known commodity in the Bronx, having worked from 2014-2017 as a special assistant to GM Brian Cashman and then as the team’s third base coach. Espada was considered by the Cubs, Angels, and Giants for their recent managerial openings, and he was one of the finalists (and reportedly the favorite at one point late in the hiring process) for the San Francisco job that eventually went to Gabe Kapler.
- Buck Showalter’s name has come up in speculative fashion as the Mets and the Padres begin their searches for a new skipper, and the 64-year-old definitively tells Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic that he does not consider himself retired from managing. Showalter says it’s “an honor” just to be mentioned as a candidate in ongoing managerial searches but adds that he has yet to be contacted by either club. The former Yankees, D-backs, Orioles and Rangers skipper says he would “never dictate a situation” by refusing to manage a rebuilding club, interestingly adding that he’d have happily taken a pay cut to stay on as the Orioles’ skipper throughout the rebuild but was never asked. Showalter fans will want to check out the Q&A in its entirety for his thoughts on working live TV broadcasts, his time with the O’s and the recent trend toward more experienced managers.
Astros’ Jake Meyers Leaves ALDS Game 4 Due To Shoulder Discomfort
2:43PM: Meyers left the game due to left shoulder discomfort, the Astros announced.
2:23PM: An apparent injury to his left arm forced Astros center fielder Jake Meyers to depart in the bottom of the second inning of Game 4 of the ALDS series between the Astros and White Sox. Meyers collided with the outfield fence while trying to make a leaping catch of a Gavin Sheets home run, with Meyers’ left arm taking the brunt of the impact. The center fielder was in obvious discomfort but attempted to stay in the game, testing his arm on a few light throws before finally being replaced by Chas McCormick.
Should the Astros win today and clinch the series, no roster maneuvers will be needed to address Meyers’ situation until the ALCS. If the White Sox win Game 4 and force a Game 5, the Astros can only replace Meyers with another player for that decisive game if the Commissioner’s Office grants approval. In that scenario, Meyers would be ineligible to play in the ALCS but could return to the World Series, if healthy.
More will be known about Meyers’ condition after the game, though an injury absence would be a very unfortunate turn of events for both Meyers and the Astros on the heels of the 25-year-old’s solid rookie season. Originally a 13th-round pick for Houston in the 2017 draft, Meyers posted a 1.006 OPS over his first 304 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season, leading to his first big league call-up.
After Myles Straw was dealt to the Indians at the trade deadline, Meyers and fellow rookie McCormick became Houston’s regular center field tandem, each delivering above-average offense and defense. Meyers hit .260/.323/.438 with six homers in 163 plate appearances, while posting a +4.9 UZR/150 and +3 Defensive Runs Saved over 293 1/3 innings in center field. Game 4 marked the third start of the series for Meyers, who had three singles and two RBI in his first seven trips to the plate in the postseason.
Should Meyers miss time, utilityman Marwin Gonzalez is probably Houston’s top choice to take his place on the ALDS or ALCS roster, as Gonzalez’s versatility at least gives the Astros some flexibility in determining how to juggle the lineup. McCormick likely becomes the top choice in center field with Jose Siri as the chief depth option, though the Astros could conceivably use Kyle Tucker as a center fielder in a pinch. Moving Tucker to center field would then open up room for Gonzalez or currently-rostered utilityman Aledmys Diaz to get into the lineup in some capacity.
Astros Owner Jim Crane Discusses Correa, Verlander, Gurriel, Baker
While Astros owner Jim Crane is focused on his team’s ALDS matchup with the White Sox, Crane talked about several impending offseason topics with FOX 26’s Mark Berman, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (all multiple links) and other reporters today.
With several major names scheduled to hit free agency, Crane said his team plans to “definitely be in the mix” to sign Carlos Correa, and “I think we have a chance” to retain the shortstop’s services. Of course, “it just depends on where we end up on that and what Carlos wants to do. Certainly dollars are a factor.”
The Astros made attempts to sign Correa to a contract extension last spring, reportedly making offers in the range of five years/$125MM and six years/$120MM. Those numbers seemed low even before Correa delivered an All-Star performance in 2021, and the 27-year-old now seems likely to land at least twice as much money on the open market.
Re-signing Correa would require the Astros to make the biggest financial commitment in franchise history, which Crane at least sounded open to, if a little guardedly. “I never count anything out….We have a history of doing something in the neighborhood of five (years) is the most we’ve ever done since I’ve been here,” Crane said. “Things can change. We’re not counting it out.”
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Lance McCullers Jr. have all signed five-year extensions with Houston during Crane’s stewardship, and it isn’t as if Crane has been unwilling to spend. Altuve’s five additional years gave the second baseman $151MM in new guaranteed money, Bregman’s extension was worth $100MM, and McCullers landed $85.5MM. That said, Correa said back in April that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts,” which could indicate that his contractual expectations go far beyond any commitment the Astros are willing to make.
Crane didn’t bring up the qualifying offer in regards to Correa, in all likelihood because it seems a foregone conclusion that Houston will issue Correa a QO and he’ll reject the one-year offer, leaving the Astros in line to receive draft pick compensation if Correa did sign elsewhere. Justin Verlander is a bit more complicated qualifying-offer case given that the veteran ace has missed virtually all of the last two seasons with injury, but Crane said “we’ll probably” issue Verlander the QO “and then see where it goes.”
Even after two lost seasons and now on the verge of his age-39 season, Verlander is still “looking for a contract of some length,” according to Crane. This would imply that Verlander would reject the one-year qualifying offer (though it would pay in the neighborhood of a $20MM salary for 2022) in search of a longer-term deal, and given Verlander’s track record, it certainly seems possible that at least one or even multiple teams would be willing to sign the future Hall-of-Famer to such a multi-year contract.
If Verlander did reject the QO, the Astros would at least benefit via compensatory draft picks. However, Verlander has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept a qualifying offer, and if he doesn’t get wind of any teams showing interest in a multi-year deal, Verlander might choose to take the QO and remain in a familiar situation in Houston. The Astros and Verlander’s camp could then negotiate a longer-term extension after the QO had been accepted, similar to what Jose Abreu and the White Sox did in the 2019-20 offseason.
There appears to be much less controversy surrounding Yuli Gurriel‘s 2022 status. The Astros hold an $8MM club option on Gurriel for next season, which looks to Crane like “a pretty easy decision. I’m sure we’ll execute on that.” The 37-year-old Gurriel is coming off a strong season that saw him hit 15 homers and win the AL batting title as part of an overall .319/.383/.462 performance in 605 plate appearances.
Beyond the player roster, manager Dusty Baker isn’t under contract beyond this season, as Crane said “we haven’t really talked about it. We’re going to wait for things to get over with here” in the Astros’ playoff run. Baker has led the Astros to the postseason in each of his two years in Houston, and the veteran manager has indicated that he would like to continue with the team.
Though Crane noted that GM James Click has authority over the manager’s job, “I’ll certainly weigh in on it and we’ll make a decision probably together on that one because I did hire [Baker] to begin with.” Crane did give Baker some measure of a vote of confidence in noting that Baker “has done a great job for us. I like Dusty a lot.”
Astros Announce ALDS Roster
The Astros have revealed their 26-man roster for their AL Division Series matchup against the White Sox, which begins today. Lance McCullers Jr. will get the ball for Game One, marking the eighth start of the righty’s postseason career. Houston will deploy 12 pitchers and 14 position players against Chicago.
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Luis Garcia
- Yimi Garcia
- Kendall Graveman
- Zack Greinke
- Cristian Javier
- Phil Maton
- Lance McCullers Jr.
- Ryan Pressly
- Ryne Stanek
- Jose Urquidy
Left-Handed Pitchers
- Brooks Raley
- Framber Valdez (Game 2 starter)
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Siri and Stubbs are perhaps the most interesting inclusions on Houston’s bench, with Stubbs likely acting as a third catcher and late-game sub for Castro or Maldonado. Siri fractured his pinkie finger just six days ago, but the rookie is apparently healthy enough to play and provide further depth in the outfield.
Some prominent names aren’t in play for the ALDS, including Jake Odorizzi, Marwin Gonzalez, and Blake Taylor. While Odorizzi and Gonzalez are on the taxi squad, they’ll only see action in an emergency situation. Gonzalez’s omission isn’t too surprising given his struggles since rejoining the Astros in August (and really since the start of the 2020 season), and Houston figures Diaz can provide enough utility flexibility. The left-handed Taylor had a 3.16 ERA over 42 2/3 innings and 51 appearances this season, but the Astros are opting to just have Raley as their only southpaw reliever against a mostly right-handed Chicago offense.
Odorizzi posted a 4.21 ERA over 104 2/3 innings and 24 appearances, starting 23 of those games but not having a particularly long leash in any of those outings. Odorizzi had some solid outings in late August and early September, yet a late-season foot injury might have cost him valuable audition time to land a spot on the playoff roster.