Post-Draft Links: Aiken, Schwarber, Davidson, Verdugo
The first day of the 2014 draft is complete, and as many expected, the Astros selected high school left-hander Brady Aiken with the No. 1 overall pick. The team is in no hurry to sign Aiken, however, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich reports (Twitter links). Still,the Astros are understandably excited about the player they drafted. “This is the most advanced high school pitcher I’ve ever seen in my entire career,” says GM Jeff Luhnow. “He has command like I’ve never seen before.”
Here’s more from the draft’s first day…
- The Cubs turned some heads by selecting Indiana catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber with the fourth overall pick, but scouting director Jason McLeod told reporters that Schwarber was No. 2 on the team’s draft board all along. ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers quotes McLeod (on Twitter) as saying that Schwarber trailed only Aiken on their board, though as the Chicago Sun Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer tweets, McLeod did acknowledge that the pick will save them some money. The Cubs are expecting him to sign quickly.
- Braves top pick Braxton Davidson says he will sign rather than attending UNC, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Davidson’s slot — No. 32 overall — carries a $1.7054MM value, per Baseball America. I spoke with Davidson as part of MLBTR’s Draft Prospect Q&A series.
- Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish hears that the Dodgers and No. 62 overall pick Alex Verdugo already have an agreement in place, and the ASU commit will not be attending college (Twitter link). VP of amateur scouting Logan White tells MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick that Verdugo, a two-way prospect, will start as a center fielder and convert to pitching if he doesn’t hit well (Twitter link).
- MLB.com’s Corey Brock spoke with Padres scouting director Billy Gasparino and got the impression that the team will shift its focus on jump on some arms tomorrow (Twitter link). San Diego drafted a pair of bats today in UNC shortstop Trea Turner and prep outfielder Michael Gettys.
Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.
Astros Select Brady Aiken First Overall
The Astros have officially selected high school left-hander Brady Aiken with the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. Aiken was rated as the top draft prospect on the board by Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com. Other players thought to be in the mix with the first overall selection were North Carolina State left-hander Carlos Rodon, high school right-hander Tyler Kolek, high school shortstop Nick Gordon, high school catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson and Louisiana State right-hander Aaron Nola.
Aiken becomes the first high school left-hander taken in the Top 5 picks since the Orioles selected Adam Loewen fourth overall in 2002, and he’s the first high school pitcher to go 1-1 since the Yankees selected Brien Taylor back in 1991. While those facts illustrate some of the risk and uncertainty with high school pitchers, scouts tend to agree that Aiken is among the best talents — if not the best talent — in this year’s class.
Aiken’s fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range and has touched 97 mph, per Mayo and Callis. BA praises his athleticism — he was his football team’s quarterback earlier in high school — as well as his “fluid delivery with minimal effort” and his ability to command all three of his pitches. Law notes that Aiken’s changeup might be his best pitch, adding that his fastball and curveball give him a chance for three plus pitches when he’s at his best.
Aiken will only further bolster an Astros farm system that has become one of the best in the game over the past few years under GM Jeff Luhnow, scouting director Mike Elias and the rest of the Houston front office. The Astros have selected first overall for three straight years now, with Carlos Correa and Mark Appel being their previous No. 1 overall picks in that stretch. Some of their highly regarded prospects, such as George Springer and Jon Singleton, have graduated to the Majors this season, giving Houston fans hope of a bright future. Aiken and the remainder of Houston’s picks will join a farm system that still includes Correa, Appel, Michael Foltynewicz, Lance McCullers Jr., Delino DeShields Jr., Domingo Santana and many other well-regarded prospects.
The No. 1 overall spot in the draft this year carries an assigned pick value of $7,922,100, per Baseball America. The Astros don’t have to spend the entirety of that sum on Aiken if they can reach a deal with him and his adviser (he is reportedly being advised by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management). However, the team is also free to go over slot should it be necessary, from a negotiation standpoint. As BA’s J.J. Cooper reported in April, the Astros have $13,362,200 to spend on their draft pool this season, and they’re free to use that money as they see fit within the first 10 rounds.
Draft Rumors: Rodon, Marlins, Freeland
As the draft approaches, we’ll keep tabs on the latest news and rumors right here:
- Top college arm Carlos Rodon is said to be asking for a bonus of over $6MM, reports Scout.com’s Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter). In McDaniel’s view, that makes Brady Aiken a strong favorite to go first overall to the Astros. The top overall slot comes with an approximately $7.9MM allotment, with the second choice landing at just over $6.8MM.
- Sitting at number two, the Marlins “appear to be focusing” on Rodon, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Rodon, who was born in Miami and is of Cuban descent, has been widely tied to the second slot in recent mock drafts. The Fish will not hesitate to add power arms due to the recent injury to Jose Fernandez, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. If we saw a guy who looked like Jose out there again, we’d go right after him,” said VP of scouting Stan Meek. “We want exactly that kind of guy.” Meek said that there was little to take away from Fernandez’s Tommy John procedure, other than the inherent risk in hard throwers: “[W]ith the velocity guys are throwing with today, you just can’t predict who is going to go down.”
- Evansville southpaw Kyle Freeland has “bad” medicals, a scouting director tells McDaniel (Twitter link). That has led some teams sitting late in the first round to decide to pass on Freeland, says McDaniel, who notes that the Rockies could still grab him with the eighth choice (potentially at a cut rate). In the introduction to its most recent mock draft, Baseball America noted that a clean MRI for Freeland has not cleared up concerns with his elbow for all clubs.
- Here are some more general draft sources to read through as you warm up for the evening: In a post that ties together all of his draft materials, McDaniel provides a wealth of information, including the latest on the rumored signability situations of various well-regarded prospects. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca cites several industry sources who like the draft’s pitching depth, especially at the high school level, and breaks down the best available players. In a piece for Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Whitaker explores what he calls the “coattail effect”: the tendency of less-touted players to see a bump in their draft stock by playing with higher-rated teammates. Rob Neyer of FOX Sports provides a fascinating oral history of the Cardinals‘ productive 2009 draft, including plenty of information from current Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs writes that, while the data shows that high school arms are generally riskier than those that have seen time at college, it does not suggest that a prep pitcher should never be taken first overall. Colleague Tony Blengino explains how teams’ draft boards are put together and utilized.
Minor Moves: Rhiner Cruz, Rusty Ryal
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…
- Astros reliever Rhiner Cruz has been allowed to sign with Japan’s Rakuten Eagles, tweets Ben Badler of Baseball America. The 27-year-old righty had a 2.25 ERA through 20 Triple-A innings this year, and owns a 5.31 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 through 76 1/3 career MLB frames. He originally came to Houston as the first pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.
- Former big leaguer Rusty Ryal has landed a minor league deal with the Phillies, reports Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish (on Twitter). The 31-year-old hasn’t appeared in the bigs since a 2009-10 stint with the D’Backs but had been hitting well in 125 plate appearances for the independent Atlantic League’s Sugar Land Skeeters. He’s a career .273/.321/.430 hitter in 1166 Triple-A plate appearances.
AL West Notes: Astros Draft, Appel, Harrison, Angels
While GM Jeff Luhnow and scouting director Mike Elias recognize how much three straight No. 1 overall picks have helped the Astros organization, the duo said in a press conference yesterday (video link) that they’re hopeful they won’t be in that spot again in 2015. Elias discussed the club’s approach to picking first overall: “We enter the year with a pool of players who we deem to be candidates for the pick. It’s usually about seven players long, the list. And we try to hang with those players as long as we can, reasonably, into the spring. We want to get as much info on these guys as possible so that we’re not blindsided if one of them storms up the list at the end, or if one of them might fall off the list for whatever reason.” Luhnow adds that while the first-round picks add huge value, “you really make your money on the draft in the later rounds.”
Here’s more out of the AL West …
- While it is far too soon to judge last year’s draft results, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains why the Astros‘ Mark Appel‘s early-career struggles could actually be cause for concern about his true ceiling. Appel, a college hurler taken first overall last year by Houston, has been knocked around in the low minors — putting him in the company of high-end busts. College arms that have gone on to dominate at the big league level, says Cooper, have tended to overpower lower-level competition easily with their combination of stuff and polish. What is most troubling, Cooper says, is that those stats have coincided with scouting reports that paint Appel as more of a mid-rotation arm.
- Rangers pitcher Matt Harrison underwent disc fusion surgery today, reports Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest (via Twitter). That means, of course, that he will not attempt to rehab and pitch through his back issues. While Harrison sounds determined to have a go at a comeback, so long as it is a viable possibility, success seems far from given at this point.
- Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes that while the Angels have delayed a tough decision by optioning Jarrett Grube to make room for the returning Josh Hamilton, something has to give soon. By this weekend, the team will need another pitcher, and either C.J. Cron or Grant Green — both of whom have hit very well — is likely to be optioned. Fletcher calls Raul Ibanez the elephant in the room, noting that the veteran DH’s numbers haven’t improved since he’s been platooned. Ibanez’s roster spot was said to be secure as recently as May 19, though he’s batted just .143/.226/.286 since that time and is hitting .147/.259/.272 overall.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Gonzalez, Chacin, Singleton, Cards, Span
In his latest Notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports opines that the Rockies shouldn’t be buyers at this summer’s trade deadline. While the club could make a Wild Card run, he writes that the team isn’t a serious World Series contender. Rosenthal feels that the club should look to move Jhoulys Chacin — who could be a non-tender candidate this offseason — to clear room for one of its top pitching prospects (likely either Jon Gray or Eddie Butler). The bigger, and certainly bolder move posited by Rosenthal is to deal Carlos Gonzalez in order to clear room for everyday at-bats for Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon. With Kyle Parker and a number of other outfield prospects on the horizon, plus Brandon Barnes and Drew Stubbs as reserve options, the team has plenty of outfield depth. Gonzalez is also owed $53MM following this season. Rosenthal notes that ownership has never shown an inclination to move Gonzalez, however, so the Rockies likely don’t share his point of view on the future of their star outfielder.
More from his latest piece…
- Most agents with whom Rosenthal has spoken feel that Jon Singleton sold himself short by agreeing to a five-year, $10MM contract extension that could reach $30MM with three club options and $35MM if he hits enough performance bonuses. First base prospects are among the safest variety of prospects, and while some bust, Singleton will earn scarcely more than the current MLB average salary, over the life of his deal on an annual basis (assuming all options are exercised).
- Rosenthal feels that the Cardinals should look to add a big-name starting pitcher such as James Shields or David Price at the deadline (should either become available, which is no guarantee, of course). While pitching certainly isn’t a need for the Redbirds, it’s not exactly clear where they’d place another bat upon acquiring one. And, given the team’s wealth of prospects at multiple positions, they could move valuable assets that are essentially spare parts to their own organization.
- Ryan Zimmerman projects to play first base for the Nationals next season, but Rosenthal asks what might happen if Washington instead decides to keep Adam LaRoche. Doing so could push Zimmerman to left field full-time, with Bryce Harper manning center field, Jayson Werth in right field and Denard Span becoming a trade chip. Span has a $9MM club option and a “limited”future with the club given the presence of Michael Taylor (not to be confused with the former A’s prospect of the same name) at Double-A, writes Rosenthal.
Astros Extend Jon Singleton
TUESDAY: Passan has the year-to-year breakdown of Singleton’s contract (Twitter link). He will earn $1.5MM this season and $2MM per year from 2015-18. He notes that each of the second options have a $250K buyout as well.
MONDAY, 6:19pm: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter) that Singleton’s options are worth $2.5MM, $5MM and $13MM. Singleton would earn $17MM for his pre-arbitration and arb years, with the $13MM option being for his first year of free agency.
5:30pm: The future of the Houston Astros is getting brighter and brighter, and the latest ray of light will make his Major League debut tomorrow. The Astros announced today that they have not only promoted top prospect Jon Singleton, but also inked him to a historic five-year contract extension with three club options despite the fact that he’s never played a Major League inning. The Sosnick/Cobbe Sports client reportedly receives a $10MM guarantee, and his contract can max out at $35MM if all of the options are exercised and he reaches various performance bonuses.
Singleton will reportedly earn $9.5MM in salary over the five guaranteed years, plus a $500K buyout if the Astros decline their first option. The total value of all three option years is $20MM, with an extra $5MM available in bonuses and awards.
The extension sets a new precedent for players who don’t have any Major League service time. Singleton was already under team control through at least the 2020 season, though now the Astros have cost certainty over the slugging first baseman through all of his pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible seasons, not to mention his first free agent season should Houston use all of its team options. The 22-year-old Singleton is now locked up through his age-29 season.
The Astros aggressively pursued extensions with several of their young players over the last few months, pursuing deals with George Springer, Robbie Grossman and Matt Dominguez that would’ve covered all most or all of their arb and pre-arb years and given the team more options years, to boot. Springer’s proposed extension would have also locked him up prior to his ever playing a day in the bigs, the same as Singleton’s contract.
Originally an eighth-round pick of the Phillies in the 2009 draft, Singleton came to the Houston organization as part of the trade package for Hunter Pence in 2011. The left-handed hitting first baseman has been on a tear at Triple-A Oklahoma City this season (hitting .267/.397/.544 and hitting 14 homers over 239 plate appearances), rebounding from a tough 2013 campaign that saw him struggle at Triple-A and serve a 50-game suspension for marijuana use.
Despite his issues last season, Singleton was still ranked among the game’s top prospects in preseason rankings by MLB.com (42nd overall), ESPN’s Keith Law (78th) and Baseball America (82nd). The 2014 Baseball America Prospect Handbook ranked Singleton as the seventh-best prospect in Houston’s system and described him as having “middle-of-the-order potential” and “plus raw power,” whle also praising his bat speed and ability to draw walks. The BA Handbook questioned his consistency against left-handed pitching, though Singleton showed improvement by posting a .919 OPS in 77 PA against southpaws this season at Triple-A.
Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan was the first to report the agreement, while ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported some of the specific terms (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports
Draft Prospect Q&A: Nick Gordon
MLBTR is re-launching its Draft Prospect Q&A series this season in order to give our readers a look at some of the top names on the board in this year’s draft. MLBTR will be chatting with some of the draft’s most well-regarded prospects over the next couple of weeks as they prepare for the 2014 draft on June 5-7.
Florida’s Nick Gordon is universally regarded as the best shortstop in the 2014 draft and, according to some, is the best position player prospect in the draft. With a pedigree like his, it’s no surprise. Gordon is the son of three-time All-Star right-hander Tom “Flash” Gordon and the younger brother of Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon. While his father made his mark in the game and Dee continues to see his star rise, all signs point to Nick making a terrific legacy of his own in the years to come. 
At 6’2″, 170, Gordon exhibits tremendous speed both on defense and around the base paths. Of course, he also boasts a terrific arm for the shortstop position and, in fact, many believe that he could pursue pitching if he wanted to. At the plate, the Olympia High School star projects to be an above-average hitter, but his intangibles and makeup have scouts drooling just as much as his physical tools.
In 27 games last season, Gordon, reportedly being advised by Beverly Hills Sports Council, which also represented father Tom “Flash” Gordon and represents brother Dee, posted an absurd slash line of .494/.576/.843 in 99 plate appearances and stole 13 bases. The youngster has had the attention of college scouts and pro scouts alike for years, but his senior season helped to boost his stock even further.
Gordon, ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the draft by ESPN.com’s Keith Law, No. 5 by MLB.com, and No. 7 by Baseball America, spoke with MLBTradeRumors late last week about the draft process, the possibility of going No. 1 overall, and what he’s learned from watching his father and brother:
Astros To Promote Jon Singleton
The Astros have told slugging first baseman Jon Singleton that he will be promoted to the Major Leagues for tomorrow’s game, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports (via Twitter). MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo tweeted earlier today that “all indications” were that Singleton would be promoted as early as this week.
Singleton, universally ranked as a Top 100 prospect, has enjoyed a monster season thus far for Triple-A Oklahoma City, hitting .267/.397/.544 with 14 homers through his first 54 games. While service time considerations are often a factor in the timing of promotions — and likely were part of the reason that Singleton remained in Triple-A as long as he did — the Astros won’t be fretting over the amount of team control or the price to retain him through his arbitration years; Houston has reportedly agreed to a five-year, $10MM extension with Singleton that contains three club options, allowing the deal top out at $35MM.
Houston originally acquired Singleton along with Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later (Domingo Santana) in exchange for Hunter Pence back in 2011.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Lane, Francoeur, Rays, Astros
Jason Lane is a former outfielder who’s now a pitcher, and Jeff Francoeur is an outfielder who occasionally pitches. Both of them are with the Padres‘ Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, trying to get back to the Majors, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times reports. Lane, the former Astros outfielder, converted to pitching two years ago and is still working on it as a 37-year-old, posting a 4.36 ERA with 3.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 64 innings so far this season. He also pinch-hits. Francoeur, who played for the Royals and Giants last season, is hitting .278/.309/.450 for the Chihuahuas and occasionally taking his turn as a reliever, appearing in six games on the mound so far this season. Kepner notes that Francoeur is “pitching for fun,” so presumably he won’t be looking for a similar role in the Majors. Also, he still has hope as an offensive player. “If I keep hitting like this, I’ve got a chance to go to the Futures Game!” he says. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- At 23-34, the Rays‘ season hasn’t gone as planned, but owner Stuart Sternberg isn’t ready to throw in the towel just yet, Bill Chastain of MLB.com writes. Sternberg certainly isn’t ready to commit to selling at the trade deadline — not that there’s much urgency on that front at this point. “[I]f you think you’re in striking distance, and more importantly, if you have confidence in the guys here that they’ve got a good stretch of baseball in them, in a week or two, you look back and you could be in a different position,” he says.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow is pleased with the results of a recent trip to Japan with pro scouting coordinator Kevin Goldstein, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Luhnow and Goldstein met with Japanese teams and interviewed candidates for a scouting position in Japan. “[W]e really felt like this is an important first step for us in re-engaging our activity in Japan and hopefully, eventually signing some good Japanese players,” says Luhnow, who says one motivation for the trip was that the Yankees had a scout watching all of Masahiro Tanaka‘s starts in Tanaka’s last two years in Japan.