- The Royals’ interest in free agent right-hander Jason Hammel has picked up since Yordano Ventura tragically died last Sunday, per Cafardo. Kansas City was surely banking on quality production in 2017 from Ventura, who tossed at least 163 innings in each of his three major league seasons and totaled a career-best 186 frames last year. From strictly an on-field standpoint, Hammel’s track record suggests he would help replace the stunning loss of Ventura. Hammel has racked up three straight years with 166-plus innings and sub-4.00 ERAs, though he surprisingly hasn’t been able to find work this offseason since the Cubs declined his option in November. It’s worth noting that the 34-year-old experienced elbow tightness late last season and wasn’t active for the World Series champions’ playoff run.
- Along with Hammel, free agent first baseman Chris Carter has piqued the Royals’ interest, but Cafardo notes that they seem likelier to target a left-handed hitter. There are still several notable lefty-swinging options remaining in free agency, including Pedro Alvarez, Brandon Moss, Logan Morrison, Adam Lind, Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard.
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Royals Rumors
Yordano Ventura Dies In Car Crash
Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura died in a car crash in the Dominican Republic on Sunday morning. This was a separate crash from the one that took the life of fellow Dominican Andy Marte. Ventura was 25 years old.
“Our prayers right now are with Yordano’s family as we mourn this young man’s passing,” said Royals general manager Dayton Moore in a team-issued statement. “He was so young and so talented, full of youthful exuberance and always brought a smile to everyone he interacted with. We will get through this as an organization, but right now it is time to mourn and celebrate the life of Yordano.”
Tragically, Ventura is the second major league pitcher who has died over the past four months. Former Marlins ace Jose Fernandez passed away after a boating accident on Sept. 25. Like Fernandez, Ventura was an exceptional, hard-throwing talent who emerged as a key long-term building block for his franchise.
Ventura signed with the Royals for a meager $28K as an international free agent in 2008. After climbing up the minor league ladder, Ventura ranked as Baseball America’s 26th-best prospect at the conclusion of the 2013 campaign. He debuted in the majors that year and then became a full-time big leaguer in 2014.
Ventura was a standout as a rookie, as he pitched to a 3.20 ERA over 183 innings to help the Royals clinch their first playoff berth since 1985. His top performance that postseason came under awful circumstances in Kansas City’s Game 6 victory over the Giants in the World Series. After learning two days earlier that his friend, fellow Dominican and former Cardinals outfielder Oscar Taveras died (also in a car crash), Ventura fired seven shutout, three-hit innings in a 10-0 romp and dedicated the performance to Taveras. The Royals went on to lose Game 7, but they returned to the Fall Classic in 2015 to defeat the Mets and end a 30-year championship drought.
Prior to the 2015 campaign, Ventura inked a five-year, $23MM extension that could have been worth $45MM and kept him with the Royals through the 2021 season. While Ventura’s final two seasons included some rocky moments, including suspensions for separate dust-ups with then-White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton and Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, the potential was there for him to evolve into one of the game’s top starters. Instead, as is the case with Fernandez, baseball and its fans will never know what Ventura would have accomplished had he enjoyed a long career.
For the second time Sunday, we at MLBTR send our condolences to the family, friends, fans and organization of a player gone too soon. Eerily, Ventura was on the mound as the opposing pitcher for Marte’s last major league game on Aug. 6, 2014.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reactions To The Passing Of Yordano Ventura And Andy Marte
This morning, Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura and former big-league infielder Andy Marte died in separate car crashes in the Dominican Republic. Here are a few of the many reactions to and reflections on today’s tragic events.
- MLB commissioner Rob Manfred issued a statement about Ventura and Marte earlier today. “Today is a very sad day for our entire game and particularly for the many loyal fans in the Dominican Republic, the home of both Yordano Ventura and Andy Marte,” said Manfred. “Yordano was a key figure in the Royals’ recent success. His electric talent on the mound helped lead the Royals to two American League pennants and the 2015 World Championship. Andy was a respected member of six organizations who played seven Major League seasons, including for the Cleveland Indians from 2006-2010. On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my deepest condolences to the families, teammates, friends and fans of both players.”
- This morning was perhaps even more difficult than expected for Royals GM Dayton Moore, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports relate (Twitter links). Moore first heard about Marte’s death, then received a call about Ventura and thought it was a mistake. Moore and Royals assistant GM Rene Francisco were close with both players — Moore and Francisco were both in the Braves organization when Marte was a top prospect there.
- Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star offers a beautifully written remembrance of Ventura, who he describes as a fighter with sharp edges but a good person and prodigious talent. “[H]e was relentless and unapologetic and desperate to be great — both for himself, and for everyone back home for whom it meant almost as much,” Mellinger writes. “His teammates and coaches might occasionally grow frustrated at some of the rougher moments, but they saw a good soul, a big heart, and an earnest learner.”
- Rosenthal offers similar sentiments in a column for FOX Sports, noting that Ventura’s sometimes rough on-field demeanor was not all of who he was. “The Yo that I knew had the warmest of smiles, the most engaging of personalities, a genuine, effusive love for the game,” writes Rosenthal. “[H]e was a diligent worker, one of the Royals’ most regimented pitchers — a kid who was engaged between starts, watched film, worked on pitches, looked and acted the part.”
- Ventura has “always had a zest for life, an innocence about the game, a freshness, a fearlessness,” says Moore, via Dodd. “And he’s been really the same guy from day one, as far as his character traits and what made him special. He’s just a really passionate human. He loved to compete. He no doubt challenged us. But that made us better.” Dodd adds that police will take three weeks to complete a toxicology report, but there was no sign of alcohol at the scene of Ventura’s crash. The pitcher was not wearing his seat belt and lost control of his vehicle while driving through dense fog on a mountainous road.
- Ventura was the opposing starting pitcher in Marte’s last Major League game in 2014, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince notes. In contrast to the fiery Ventura, Marte (formerly one of the top prospects in the game) was “an easygoing guy” who took his career disappointments in stride. Marte never could stick in the big leagues after coming up as a top prospect with the Braves and Indians (and, for a month, the Red Sox), and after stops in the Pirates, Angels and Diamondbacks organizations, he finally excelled in Korea, where he totaled 44 home runs with the KT Wiz between the 2015 and 2016 seasons. “The only thing I know how to do is play baseball,” he told Castrovince. “That’s why I didn’t stop.”
Royals Extend Danny Duffy
The Royals have a number of key players hitting the open market next winter, but left-hander Danny Duffy will no longer be among them. The Royals announced on Monday that they’ve signed Duffy to a five-year deal that runs through the 2021 season and will reportedly guarantee him $65MM. The contract doesn’t afford Duffy, an ACES client, any sort of no-trade protection and doesn’t contain any options. Duffy will reportedly take home $5MM in 2017, $14MM in 2018, $15.25MM in 2019-20, and $15.5MM in 2021.
Duffy’s new contract will buy out four free agent years and keep him in Kansas City through his age-32 season (assuming he isn’t traded down the line, of course). He had filed for an $8MM salary in arbitration, while the team countered at $7.25MM. Using the $7.625MM midpoint between those two figures as a presumptive would-be salary for the upcoming campaign, Duffy sold off four free-agent years for a total of $57.375MM.
[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals Payroll Information]
Certainly, that’s an appealing payday for a player that had previously earned less than $8MM in his career. While Duffy could have taken aim at a massive payday next winter with further improvement in 2017, waiting an additional year would also have come with the risk of injury or a decline in performance. Either of those scenarios would have severely hampered his free-agent stock and made that $57.375MM figure unattainable over the next four seasons.
This contract effectively pays him at an Ervin Santana level for his first four free-agent years, and while some will opine that he could’ve done better with another strong year, that type of trade-off is the nature of nearly every extension. And, in Duffy’s case, it seemed as if his strong preference was always to remain in Kansas City. When the two sides first began talking about a long-term pact back in November, Duffy wasn’t shy about his feelings. “I want to stay with the Royals long term,” he told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. “One hundred percent. For sure.”
The extension for Duffy, who turned 28 in December, comes on the heels of a breakout season that saw the former third-round pick and top prospect pitch to a 3.51 ERA in a career-high 179 1/3 innings. Duffy averaged 9.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 to go along with a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged a robust 94.8 mph.
That type of upside has long been in the cards for Duffy, who rated among the game’s Top 100 prospects per both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2011 season. Duffy debuted that season at the age of 21 and struggled considerably (5.64 ERA in 105 innings), but he looked to be on his way to an improved sophomore campaign in 2012 after turning in a 3.90 ERA through six starts. Those six games would be the only contests in which he’d pitch that year, though, as Duffy underwent Tommy John surgery that summer and didn’t return to a big league mound until Aug. 2013. Since that time, he’s seen action in both the bullpen and the rotation, but his excellent work in 2016 and this new contract should ensure that he’ll be in the team’s starting mix for years to come.
Joining Duffy in the rotation in 2017 will be Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Ian Kennedy and one of Matt Strahm, Nate Karns, Chris Young or Mike Minor. Of that bunch, Ventura also represents a long-term option, as he’s controlled through 2021. Kennedy, too, could stick around for several more years, though he has the opportunity to opt out of the final three years of his contract following the 2017 campaign. Young and Minor are both free agents this coming winter, while Strahm has less than a year of service time and is controllable through the 2022 season.
Entering the offseason, Duffy was one of many Royals that was set to hit free agency following the 2017 season. That fate is still on the horizon for the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar, while others such as Wade Davis and Jarrod Dyson have already been traded (for Jorge Soler and Karns, respectively). By trading Davis and Dyson for a pair of cheaper Major League assets and also agreeing to an extension with Duffy that will pay him less in 2017 than he’d have earned on a one-year deal in arbitration, GM Dayton Moore has succeeded in lowering his 2017 payroll without completely stripping down the core of a potential contender. The Indians remain the on-paper favorite to capture the AL Central title in 2017, but keeping Duffy in the fold for several years to come will help Kansas City remain competitive even as the team transitions to a new core of players.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported the agreement and the terms (via Twitter). FanRag’s Jon Heyman added that the deal does not have a no-trade clause or any sort of option (Twitter link). Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported the annual breakdown of the deal (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2017 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 152 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 36 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- Danny Duffy, Royals: $8MM versus $7.25MM (Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, via Twitter)
- Tony Watson, Pirates: $6MM versus $5.6MM (Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, via Twitter)
- Pedro Strop, Cubs: $6MM versus $4.6MM (Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, via Twitter)
- Drew Pomeranz, Red Sox: $5.7MM versus $3.6MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Kelvin Herrera, Royals: $5.6MM versus $5.05MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks: $5.1MM versus $4.7MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Khris Davis, Athletics: $5MM versus $4.65MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Dellin Betances, Yankees: $5MM versus $3MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
Royals Avoid Arbitration With Eric Hosmer
The Royals have avoided arbitration with first baseman Eric Hosmer by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $12.25MM, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client is entering his final season of team control and will be a free agent following the 2017 campaign. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $13.3MM in 2017.
Greg Holland Seeks Two-Year Deal With Opt-Out
Free-agent righty Greg Holland is arguably the highest-upside reliever left on the open market, and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides some notable updates on his situation. The 31-year-old is in a somewhat unusual spot as a free agent, in that he brings a sparkling track record but is also seeking to return from a long layoff due to Tommy John surgery.
Given his health situation and also the evident interest around the league, Holland seeks a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after the first season, according to Heyman. That’s the same structure that Brian Wilson landed with the Dodgers before the 2014 season, though he had made it back to the hill late in the prior campaign.
In Holland’s case, there’s perhaps greater uncertainty, but also greater upside. He took a step back in his most recent action, in 2015, but that may well have been due to the elbow issues that led to his surgery. Over the prior four campaigns, Holland was one of the game’s very best relievers, as he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.
There’s interest in Holland’s proposed two-year arrangement, per the report. Among the teams still pursuing him are the Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Rays. While the Cubs showed prior interest, it’s not clear whether they are still in. And the Royals have also indicated a desire to bring back their former closer, though it seems that the team’s payroll situation may not allow for a competitive bid.
That group of organizations would presumably offer Holland a variety of possible roles. The Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Royals (if they’re involved) could all promise him first dibs on closing roles, while the Dodgers and perhaps the Cubs are more likely to view the veteran as a setup man. Tampa Bay, perhaps, might be most interested in the event that it strikes a deal for incumbent closer Alex Colome. Whether and to what extent the chance to take hold of the ninth is an important factor in Holland’s decisionmaking is not immediately clear.
Royals Looking For Free Agent Bargains
Free agent slugger Brandon Moss “has been linked to the Orioles,” writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 33-year-old possesses plenty of experience in the corner outfield – where general manager Dan Duquette is still looking for help even after acquiring Seth Smith on Friday – and could fit as a designated hitter in Baltimore. While re-signing Mark Trumbo would help fill those vacancies, Duquette didn’t sound optimistic about that Sunday. Moss should cost far less than Trumbo, largely because the former is coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons. As a member of the Cardinals last year, Moss swatted an impressive 28 home runs, but he nevertheless posted an unspectacular .225/.300/.484 line in 464 plate appearances. The lefty-swinger would at least add more power and variety to a mostly right-handed lineup, however.
More notes on the free agent market:
- Right-hander Dillon Gee received medical clearance Thursday after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter links). Gee, who should be ready for spring training, has garnered interest from multiple teams, per Cotillo (the Marlins contacted him earlier this offseason). The 30-year-old has been on the open market since November, when he cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. Gee spent 2016 in Kansas City, where he recorded a 4.68 ERA, 6.41 K/9 and 2.66 BB/9 in 125 innings and 33 appearances (14 starts).
- Speaking of the Royals, the budget-conscious club will continue to monitor the market for potential bargains as the spring approaches, GM Dayton Moore told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. “When the music stops, there’s always going to be a few guys without chairs,” Moore said. “And unfortunately, for those players, the options dwindle. For the clubs that stay aggressive and keep their pulse on everything, you can get some potential deals.” The Royals spent on several free agents – including Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy and Joakim Soria – over the previous couple winters, but they’ve taken a much less aggressive approach this offseason. So far, backup catcher Drew Butera is the only free agent Kansas City has given a major league deal.
Royals Rumors: Plouffe, Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain
- Speaking of the Braves and Royals, they are interested in free agent third baseman/first baseman Trevor Plouffe, who has been available since the Twins outrighted him in November. Boston and Oakland are also in on the 30-year-old Plouffe, a steady contributor from 2014-15 who batted an underwhelming .260/.303/.420 with 12 homers in 344 PAs last season. Like Hill, Plouffe has had more success versus lefties (.268/.344/.465) than righties (.239/.294/.403) during his career.
- To finish off a Royals-heavy set of notes, it’s still possible they’ll trade one of Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer or outfielder Lorenzo Cain – all contract-year players – before the season, per Cafardo. A willingness to deal Moustakas or Hosmer, particularly the former, would somewhat explain Kansas City’s interest in Hill and Plouffe. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal previouly reported that Hosmer is unlikely to go anywhere prior to the season, though, and KC already subtracted a key outfielder Friday when it shipped Jarrod Dyson to Seattle. Speculatively, that could impact whether the Royals would also part with Cain, who’s due $11MM next season.
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Arbitration Breakdown: Todd Frazier & Eric Hosmer
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Two corner infielders, Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer, enter arbitration this offseason after completing two-year deals that paid them each $8.25MM in the latter year (including a prorated portion of Frazier’s signing bonus). Both had solid years as power hitters, and my model projects each to receive a raise of $5.25MM for Frazier and $5.05MM for Hosmer, to $13.5MM and $13.3MM, respectively).
Only ten position players in the past decade have received additional single-year salaries through arbitration after receiving multi-year deals earlier in their eligibility. Most of these players had poor seasons, and only five of these ten have met these criteria since 2009.
As a result, it’s difficult to find good comparables for the situations in which Frazier and Hosmer find themselves. Perhaps the best match would be Prince Fielder, who received a $4MM raise in 2011 after a solid season in which he batted .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBIs. Frazier actually had more home runs last season but a worse average, posting a .225/40/98 line with 15 steals, while Hosmer was very similar at .266/25/104.
It’s rare for six-year old cases to be used in arbitration hearings, so Fielder is probably not a great match. However, applying some salary inflation to his $4MM raise suggests the model’s projections for Frazier and Hosmer are probably somewhat reasonable.
We can also check if players going to arbitration following multi-year deals fare better or worse than players who have been going year to year, and the evidence here suggests looking for regular comparables among the year-to-year group is reasonable. The average raise for the ten players coming off multi-year deals was $1.6MM, compared to projected earnings of $1.5MM. This difference is not significant enough to worry about a systematic bias. Therefore, looking for comparables in the year-to-year group makes sense to pin things down more precisely.
Of course, it is rare for power hitters to go year to year at all, so few players emerge as possibilities. No one in the last three years has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility coming off a platform year with 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in. A couple players did so in 2013, including Chase Headley, who received a $5.1MM raise after a .286/31/115 campaign with 17 steals. Hunter Pence only got a $3.4MM raise after his .253/24/104 campaign the year prior. Pence could prove a reasonable comparable for Hosmer’s .266/25/104, which suggests Hosmer’s $5.05MM projected raise is probably high. However, Headley clearly did not do all that much better than Hosmer in his platform year, and both cases are old, so it remains possible that Headley is the better comparable and a $5MM raise is reasonable.
Frazier’s case is tricky in that no one in the last decade has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility with a batting average below .260 and at least 30 home runs. Although Frazier’s batting average was much poorer, I have found that batting average is a somewhat less important criteria than ran home run totals in arbitration, so I believe Frazier’s case is strong. I think Headley’s 60 points of batting average probably roughly offset the nine fewer home runs, and a $5MM raise or slightly higher does seem more believable for Frazier.
Three players in the last decade have gotten $5MM raises as part of multi-year deals—Jose Bautista, Carlos Pena, and Matt Kemp. However, none of them are great comparables, since they all had much better numbers than either Frazier and Hosmer. Additionally, multi-year deals are generally not used in arbitration hearings, although they may be in these instances where comparables are tough to find.
Ultimately, I think both Frazier and Hosmer have good cases to top Fielder’s $4MM raise and either could make a case for being near Headley’s $5.1MM raise. I suspect Hosmer may fall short of his projected $5.05MM raise, and get somewhere closer to $4.5MM—which would put him around $12.75MM. Frazier’s 40 home runs allow for more upside, and his $5.25MM projected raise to $13.5MM seems like a reasonable estimate.
