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Mets Outright Tyler Jay

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Mets reliever Tyler Jay went unclaimed on waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Syracuse, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He’ll stick in the organization without holding a 40-man roster spot.

Jay, who turns 30 today, had a brief stint on the big league team. He pitched twice, allowing only one run over four innings. That cup of coffee was the culmination of a lengthy climb through the professional ranks. The sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Twins, Jay never reached the big leagues with Minnesota. Injuries, most notably a 2017 thoracic outlet procedure, stopped the Illinois product from moving past Double-A.

It looked as if Jay would never get to the majors, but he reinvigorated his career in independent ball. Jay showed enough with the Frontier League’s Joliet Slammers between 2022-23 to earn a minor league opportunity from the Mets. He made six appearances with Syracuse late last season and began this year with 5 2/3 scoreless innings there.

Despite his strong start, the Mets designated Jay for assignment when they reacquired the out-of-options Michael Tonkin on Wednesday. Jay will head to Triple-A and look to pitch his way back to the big league bullpen later this season.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings, Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • How can a pitcher blow a save in the seventh inning? How early can a save be blown? (38:25)
  • Do you think the Tigers will release Javier Báez? It is painful to watch him. (41:15)
  • Who could the Braves target inside or outside the organization to replace Spencer Strider? (45:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Mets Claim Michael Tonkin, Designate Tyler Jay

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The Mets have claimed righty Michael Tonkin off waivers from the Twins, per a team announcement. Left-hander Tyler Jay was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

It’s in many ways a reversal of some recent bullpen-related transactions in Queens. New York designated Tonkin for assignment on April 5, traded him to the Twins for cash, and less than a week later selected the contract of Jay (a former Twins top prospect himself). Minnesota designated Tonkin for assignment a second time after he made just one appearance.

Both Tonkin and Jay were original Twins draftees — Tonkin in the 30th round in 2008 and Jay with the No. 6 overall pick in 2015. The 34-year-old Tonkin has allowed 10 runs in six innings between the Mets and Twins this year, though only four of them have been earned. He’s whiffed eight of 33 opponents and walked three, although he’s also plunked three batters in his tiny sample of innings.

Tonkin spent the 2023 season in the Braves’ bullpen, logging a 4.28 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in 80 innings. That set a new career-high MLB workload for the journeyman right-hander, who owns a career 4.42 ERA (4.55 FIP, 3.70 SIERA) with a 23.1% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 39.7% grounder rate in 232 1/3 big league innings between Minnesota, Atlanta and New York. Tonkin has also pitched in the D-backs and Brewers systems in addition to stints with the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks, the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana, and the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.

As for Jay, his major league debut came far, far later than most would’ve expected when he was taken sixth overall as a high-profile college arm out of the University of Illinois. A former top-100 prospect, he’s been slowed by shoulder and neck troubles throughout his career and notably underwent thoracic outlet surgery back in 2017, costing him a year of his career. Jay never tossed more than 83 2/3 innings in any of his seasons with the Twins before being cut loose during the canceled 2020 minor league season. He didn’t pitch at all in 2021 and spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Joliet Slammers of the independent Frontier League.

His work with the Slammers earned him a look in the Mets’ system late last year. He re-signed on a minor league deal over the winter, tossed 5 2/3 shutout frames in Triple-A Syracuse to begin the season, and allowed one run on five hits and a walk in his first four MLB frames with the Mets. Jay only struck out one of the 18 batters he faced but also recorded an outstanding 66.7% ground-ball rate. New York will have a week to trade Jay, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Francisco Lindor’s Slow Start Is Not Abnormal

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This post is brought to you by Stathead.  We use Stathead, powered by Baseball Reference, to find interesting stats in our articles. Stathead has easy-to-use discovery tools to take you inside the BR database. Try it for free today!

The 2024 season is now rolling along, which means it’s time to wildly overreact to small samples of data. Previously unremarkable players are suddenly looking like Hall-of-Famers while reliably good players now seem to be washed.

A midseason slump is easy to dismiss when you look up and the full season stats still seem good. Maybe a slumping hitter is still hitting .265 or a pitcher that just got lit up still has an earned run average around 4.00. But early on, a batting average that starts with a zero or an ERA that has two digits before the decimal place can be a cause for concern.

Thankfully, Stathead has an amazing tool to help put this all into proper context. Using the Span Finder, we can search a player’s entire career to see if they have ever had a previous slump that compares to what’s currently happening. Let’s use Francisco Lindor as an example.

It’s no secret that Lindor hasn’t exactly been his best self so far this year. His struggles became such a talking point amid fans of the Mets that some of them got together on social media and decided to support Lindor with a standing ovation, mirroring how Phillies’ fans responded when Trea Turner was struggling last year.

Through 15 games, Lindor has just eight hits in 62 at-bats for a .129 batting average. Just two of those eight hits have been for extra bases, one double and one home run. His batting line is just  .129/.236/.194 and his on-base plus slugging is just .430, well below his career mark of .810.

Now that Lindor is 30 years old, it might be tempting to consider this the start of some age-based decline, but Span Finder shows us that he has been here before. Doing a custom search for every 15-game stretch of Lindor’s career and sorting by ascending OPS, we get this…

  • September 10 to September 26 of 2016: .309 OPS
  • September 11 to September 28 of 2016: .337 OPS
  • September 9 to September 24 of 2016: .340 OPS
  • April 17 to May 5 of 2021: .388 OPS
  • October 1 of 2023 to April 13 of 2024: .392 OPS
  • September 8 to September 23 of 2016: .404 OPS
  • April 17 of 2021 to May 3 of 2021: .414 OPS
  • September 29 of 2017 to April 11 of 2018: .429 OPS
  • March 29 to April 14 of 2024: .430 OPS

Lindor is clearly in one of the worst stretches of his career right now, but it’s not totally without precedent. He slumped real bad at the end of the 2016 season when he was 22 years old. Despite that awful finish, he still hit .301/.358/.435 on the year overall for a 106 OPS+. Cleveland made the playoffs that year and Lindor immediately put that slump behind him, hitting .310/.355/.466 in the postseason as the club went all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, even going to extra innings in that classic game.

Given that there were also some notable struggles early on in 2018 and 2021 mixed in there, it seems fair to conclude that Lindor is performing within the range of previous outcomes. It’s clearly not ideal for him or the Mets that he’s started the season in this hole, but it’s one he has climbed out of before. Throughout the ups and downs of his career, he has hit .272/.340/.470 for a 116 OPS+.

That bat, along with Lindor’s speed and defense, are why the Mets gave him a ten-year, $341MM extension a few years ago. That deal pays Lindor $32MM annually through the 2031 season, so it’s good for the Mets that his current slump isn’t totally unprecedented.

Mets Acquire Joe Hudson From Cubs

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The Cubs traded journeyman catcher Joe Hudson to the Mets yesterday, per the teams’ transaction logs at MLB.com. It’s presumably a cash deal that’ll give the Mets some additional depth behind the plate. Hudson was assigned to Double-A Binghamton.

Hudson, 32, has seen brief action in three big leagues seasons but none since 2020. He has just 33 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Hudson has spent the past two seasons in Triple-A with the Rays and Braves, hitting for a low average but posting strong on-base marks and showing off good pop at the plate. He was hitless in eight plate appearances with the Cubs’ Iowa affiliate in 2024 but batted .230/.362/.432 with 20 homers in just 437 plate appearances with the top affiliates for the Rays and Braves from 2022-23.

Behind the plate, Hudson is 0-for-7 in halting steals at the MLB level but boasts an enormous 40% caught-stealing rate in 11 minor league seasons. He’s also typically posted strong framing marks in the upper minors, per Baseball Prospectus.

The Mets are set at catcher on the big league roster, with young Francisco Alvarez shouldering the bulk of the workload and veteran Omar Narvaez backing him up. In Triple-A, they’ve got veteran Tomas Nido and well-traveled Austin Allen — a pair of backstops with big league experience (quite a bit of experience, in Nido’s case). For now, Hudson will head to Double-A and pair with top catching prospect Kevin Parada.

Orioles Acquire Yohan Ramirez From Mets

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The Orioles have acquired reliever Yohan Ramírez from the Mets for cash, the teams announced. New York had designated the righty for assignment on Monday. Baltimore’s 40-man roster now sits at capacity.

Ramírez spent a couple months in the New York organization. The Mets acquired him from the White Sox in a cash deal in December. He held his spot on the 40-man roster for the rest of the offseason and broke camp. A pair of rough outings quickly squeezed him off the big league team, though. After recording one out in a scoreless appearance in his season debut, he allowed seven runs on nine hits over his next five innings.

The 28-year-old has played for five teams over the past four-plus seasons. Ramírez has tallied 129 1/3 innings at the highest level, turning in a reasonable 4.31 ERA. He has punched out a decent 23.1% of batters faced, yet he’s also struggled to throw strikes consistently. Ramírez has walked over 12% of big league opponents. The sinkerballer induced grounders at a huge 58.4% rate last season but has posted more pedestrian ground-ball numbers in every other year.

While his stuff has clearly intrigued a handful of teams, Ramírez’s scattershot command has made him something of a volatile middle reliever. Perhaps more importantly, he’s also out of minor league options. Teams can’t send him to Triple-A without first running him through waivers, which no club has yet achieved.

Baltimore entered the day with a pair of openings on the 40-man roster. They snagged infielder Livan Soto off waivers this afternoon before their evening bullpen pickup. Neither move comes at much cost, although the O’s will need to devote an MLB bullpen spot to Ramírez once he reports to the team.

The Orioles already have four relievers on the active roster who can’t be sent down: Craig Kimbrel, Mike Baumann, Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb. They’re not likely to send down any of Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin or Dillon Tate, while Jonathan Heasley is working as a long reliever. That’s a tough bullpen for Ramírez to crack, so it’s not out of the question that Baltimore tries to sneak him through waivers themselves in the next few days.

Julio Teheran Elects Free Agency

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Julio Teheran has elected free agency after clearing waivers, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The Mets had designated him for assignment on Tuesday.

Teheran’s stint as a Met couldn’t have been much shorter. The veteran righty agreed to terms on a major league deal on April 3, a move that was announced by the team two days later. Skipper Carlos Mendoza tabbed him for a start in Atlanta on Monday. Teheran allowed four runs without making it out of the third inning and was DFA one day later.

While it wasn’t the most productive tenure, Teheran banked a major league salary for around a week. His contract called for a prorated $2.5MM salary for time spent in the majors, so he collected upwards of $80K. That’s a decent outcome for a player who had opted out of a minor league pact with the Orioles at the end of Spring Training.

The 33-year-old now sets out in search of his third organization of the 2024 campaign. He may need to settle for a minor league contract this time around, but he should find interest from teams looking for experienced rotation depth. Teheran started 11 of 14 appearances with the Brewers last season, allowing 4.40 earned runs per nine innings.

That was Teheran’s heaviest workload at the major league level since 2019. A two-time All-Star during his nine-year tenure with the Braves, he has pitched for four clubs since the start of the ’20 campaign. Over the last four-plus seasons, Teheran owns a 6.10 ERA with a well below-average 16.1% strikeout rate against a solid 7.2% walk percentage.

Mets Transfer Kodai Senga To 60-Day Injured List

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The Mets announced that right-hander Kodai Senga has been transferred to the 60-day injured list. That’s the corresponding move to open a roster spot for left-hander Tyler Jay, who was reported earlier to be joining the club.

Senga, 31, was diagnosed with a moderate posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder during Spring Training and started the season on the 15-day IL. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which will be late May. Manger Carlos Mendoza said yesterday that Senga still has not thrown off a mound, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

The news of Senga’s injury came in late February and the club initially planned for a shutdown period of at least three weeks, though they later planned on adding another seven to ten days to be cautious. It was reported almost three weeks ago that Senga was to begin a throwing program but the fact that he has not made it to a mound yet suggests that he either had some sort of setback or is being ramped up very slowly. Whatever the reason, the Mets apparently don’t expect Senga to be able to rejoin the club in the next six weeks.

It’s obviously a frustrating development for Senga and the team. The righty came over from Japan last year and was an immediate success, pitching 166 1/3 innings with a 2.98 earned run average. His 11.1% walk rate was a tad high but he struck out 29.1% of batters faced while keeping 44.7% of balls in play on the ground. He finished seventh in National Cy Young voting and second in Rookie of the Year voting.

Rotation health has been an issue for the Mets so far this year. David Peterson required hip surgery in the offseason and began the year on the IL, while Senga and Max Kranick followed him due to spring injuries, the latter suffering a hamstring strain. Tylor Megill took a rotation spot to start the year but landed on the IL himself after just one outing due to a shoulder strain.

The current rotation consists of Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Adrian Houser, with José Buttó likely to be recalled soon to join that group. Until the injured hurlers get back, Joey Lucchesi is likely the top depth option, as he’s on the 40-man roster and currently on optional assignment.

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