Report: Phillies "Likely" To Announce Gabe Kapler Decision Wednesday
- It wouldn’t have been a surprise if the Phillies jettisoned maligned manager Gabe Kapler after their disappointing season ended Sunday. A couple days later, though, they still haven’t announced whether he’ll return for a third year. But it’s “likely” they’ll make Kapler’s fate known on Wednesday, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The Kapler-led Phillies just concluded a second straight season in which a summer implosion canceled out a promising start. Philadelphia went 80-82 under Kapler in 2018, and despite an incredibly active offseason, the club only mustered an 81-81 mark this year.
Kapler Mum On Subject Of Job Security
- Posts were aplenty on the job status of Phillies manager Gabe Kapler on Sunday, which should come as little surprise, considering that Kapler has been beleaguered with near uniformity by fans and press alike in his second season as Philadelphia’s manager. In comments made to Scott Lauber the Philadelphia Inquirer after Sunday’s game, it seemed that Kapler, for one, had had enough speculation for one season (link). “It’s definitely not a conversation I need to have right now in this room,” Kapler said to reporters about forthcoming conversations with Philly management. “It’s a private conversation. My job is to focus on managing the Phillies even after Game 162.” If Kapler is indeed removed as skipper in the City of Brotherly Love, he will finish his tenure with a 161-162 managerial record.
Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez Unlikely To Return To Phillies
- A pair of Phillies infielders may have played their final game in the City of Brotherly Love, cutting the final tie between today’s Phillies and the powerhouse teams of the late-2000s, writes Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic. With Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez eligible for arbitration, both are strong candidates to be non-tendered: It would cost a considerable price to keep Hernandez around when Scott Kingery exists as a cheaper, more productive option; likewise, Franco has been streaky and is likely not viewed as a long-term solution for the club. However, they remain as the only links to the days of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard, bridging the team through the doldrums of 2014-2015 and into a new era of Bryce Harper-led Philly baseball.
Phillies Pitching Coach Chris Young Weathers Difficult First Season
- Trust is a process, and first-year Phillies pitching coach Chris Young understands that process takes a little longer with suboptimal results, per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and Meghan Montemurro (subscription required). Young’s job was made all the more difficult when players bristled at the dismissal of his predecessor Rick Kranitz. Young’s analytics-driven philosophy was in lockstep with manager Gabe Kapler, but Philly pitchers are taking longer to buy-in, in part from its perception as an inflexible top-down approach. It was a frustrating season on the whole for Philadelphia’s pitching staff as the team regressed to 2017 levels after taking a big step forward in 2018.
Latest On Gabe Kapler
- The Phillies have folded in back-to-back years under manager Gabe Kapler, leading to speculation that the club could fire him at season’s end. Kapler spoke about his status Friday, telling Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters: “It’s not something I’m thinking about right now. It’s not something I’m worried about and haven’t had any conversations about it.” Kapler at least “seems safe for the weekend,” Breen writes, but the Phillies could choose to go in another direction after that. The Phillies finished 80-82 under Kapler in his rookie campaign as a manager in 2018, and even after an incredibly active offseason, they’ll wind up with an almost identical record this year. They’re an even 80-80 with two games remaining.
Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019
Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.
While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.
Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.
It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.
The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.
Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.
Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?
(Poll link for app users)
How would you grade Harper's 2019 performance?
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B 46% (4,852)
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C 31% (3,288)
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A 13% (1,373)
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D 7% (752)
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F 4% (392)
Total votes: 10,657
Three Needs: Philadelphia Phillies
We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers, Pirates, Angels and Royals. Now we’re focusing on the Phillies, whose ultra-aggressive 2018-19 offseason didn’t yield the type of results they wanted this year. The club has now gone eight straight seasons without a playoff berth, and its mediocrity over the past two years may well cost manager Gabe Kapler his job. Regardless of what happens with Kapler, general manager Matt Klentak obviously has quite a bit of work to do with the club’s roster this winter. Let’s take a look at a few areas he could address…
[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]
1. Repair The Rotation
The Phillies’ weak rotation is one of the obvious reasons for the team’s demise this year. Aside from Aaron Nola, the club hasn’t received particularly strong production from any of the starters it has relied on in 2019. Looking ahead, Nola, the disappointing Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin are either locks or solid bets to occupy rotation spots in 2020, while high-end prospect Spencer Howard could stake a claim to one at some point. Jason Vargas is controllable next year by way of a club option worth $8MM, but the Phillies could instead buy the deadline acquisition out for $2MM after his below-average second-half performance. If that happens, and if the Phillies don’t want to rely on the other shaky in-house options who have failed them this season (Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta, to name a couple), they figure to search elsewhere for help.
The Phillies just allocated an enormous amount of money to their position player cast a year ago, including $330MM on outfielder Bryce Harper, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see owner John Middleton authorize major spending on their rotation during the upcoming offseason. Baseball’s premier pending free agent, Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole, looks like a potential target – one who could cost in the $200MM range or more. Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and old friend Cole Hamels make for several other soon-to-be free agents who’d help the Phillies’ cause.
2. Upgrade The Bullpen
The Phillies have made multiple ill-fated bullpen signings over the past couple offseasons. They’ve gotten little to nothing from Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter during their soon-to-expire two-year guarantees, while the same will wind up applying to David Robertson. The team awarded the normally durable and excellent Robertson $23MM over two years last winter, but he only threw a handful of innings this season before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in August. As a result of that procedure, Robertson probably won’t pitch in 2020.
While the Phillies have struck out on relief acquisitions lately, that doesn’t mean they should stop trying. It’s obvious their relief corps is in need of aid heading into the offseason, especially with Juan Nicasio (who’s third among their relievers in innings) and Nick Vincent (who has performed well since signing in August) due to hit free agency. Hector Neris, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez comprise the team’s only relievers who have been effective over a solid sample of innings this year, and all three figure to be back in 2020. Philadelphia will also hope for healthy bounce-back seasons from Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano and Adam Morgan, who entered this year looking like building blocks but have since endured disappointing, injury-laden campaigns.
That’s not a group devoid of promise, but it’s also loaded with risk. So, expect the team to continue attempting to bolster its bullpen with more established arms in the offseason, when Will Smith, Aroldis Chapman (if he opts out of his Yankees deal), Will Harris, Chris Martin, Dellin Betances and Drew Pomeranz are among those who could hit the open market.
3. Lock Up J.T. Realmuto
Last offseason’s acquisition of Realmuto has been hugely success for Philly, which saw the 28-year-old continue as the game’s foremost catcher in 2019. While Realmuto is sure to remain a Phillie next year, which will be his final season of arbitration eligibility, his future’s murkier thereafter. Both Realmuto and the Phillies have made it known they’d like to continue their relationship for the foreseeable future, though, making him one of baseball’s prime extension candidates going into the winter. Having traded two quality pitching prospects – including the excellent Sixto Sanchez – as well as major league catcher Jorge Alfaro for short-term control over Realmuto last offseason, the Phillies will be all the more motivated to prevent the star backstop from entering next year without a long-term deal in place.
J.T. Realmuto Will Have Surgery To Repair Meniscus
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto will undergo a procedure to clean up the meniscus in his right knee, manager Gabe Kapler announced Wednesday (Twitter link via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). With the Phillies formally eliminated from postseason contention, he’ll go under the knife now rather than play out the season’s final series. There are no long-term concerns associated with the operation, and Realmuto is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training.
The surgery means that Realmuto’s season will come to a close with a strong .275/.328/.493 batting line in his first year with the Phils. Realmuto slugged 25 homers, 36 doubles and three triples over the course of 538 plate appearances while serving as something of an iron man behind the dish; no one in baseball has caught more than the 1139 innings that Realmuto did in 2019. The volume of that workload makes his output at the plate all the more impressive and heightens the value of his superlative defense. Realmuto threw out a ridiculous 47 percent of base thieves in 2019 and ranked among the best in the league in terms of pitch blocking and pitch framing.
Put simply, Realmuto is arguably the game’s best catcher. Phillies general manager Matt Klentak recently lauded Realmuto’s overall contributions and was rather candid in suggesting that an extension for the 28-year-old All-Star will be one of the organization’s priorities over the winter. The Phils control Realmuto through the 2020 season, at present, and he’ll command a sizable raise on this year’s $5.9MM salary in arbitration over the winter. Realmuto has voiced his own interest in signing a long-term pact to remain with the Phillies, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if the two sides ultimately hammer out a deal between now and Opening Day 2020.
Poll: Will The Phillies Fire Gabe Kapler?
The Phillies still have a handful of games remaining, but their loss to the division-rival Nationals on Tuesday afternoon all but ended their season. Philadelphia dropped to 79-77, officially eliminating the team from playoff contention and leaving it to look ahead to the winter. The Phillies were more aggressive than any other franchise in baseball last offseason, which led to hope they’d put an end to a lengthy playoff drought as early as this year. Instead, though, they’ve now gone eight straight seasons without a berth, and second-year manager Gabe Kapler could be one of the fall guys for their most recent failings.
Just last week, general manager Matt Klentak credited Kapler for “doing a very good job,” adding that “the group is playing hard down the stretch.” But the Phillies entered the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader mired in a stretch of five losses in six games, and the Nats outscored them 21-4 over the first three matchups of their series. That skid “speaks loudly of a dead team playing out the string,” opines NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes that owner John Middleton will have more say than Klentak in deciding Kapler’s future.
After Middleton authorized a few high-cost acquisitions last offseason, including Bryce Harper‘s historic $330MM contract, it’s possible he’ll now decide to look elsewhere in the dugout. There has been improvement this year compared to last season’s 80-82 finish, though the Phillies arguably haven’t progressed enough under Kapler. The team collapsed in the second half of last year, when it led the NL East with a 65-52 record as late as Aug. 12 before sputtering to a 15-28 mark over its final 43 contests. While this season’s squad didn’t control the division as late into the summer, it was in first place with a 38-29 record on June 11. Since then? Forty-one wins, 48 losses.
In fairness to Kapler, injury and pitching issues have played obvious roles in the demise of the 2019 Phillies. While the team wouldn’t solve those problems with a managerial change, they could nonetheless help hasten Kapler’s exit. If that happens, perhaps the Phillies will reverse course on their next managerial hire and look for an established option (Joe Girardi? Joe Maddon?) rather than a neophyte to lead their 2020 roster.
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Phillies fire Gabe Kapler?
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Yes 75% (9,295)
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No 25% (3,119)
Total votes: 12,414
J.T. Realmuto To Undergo MRI On Knee
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is dealing with a right knee issue that will require an MRI, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. Realmuto felt a “popping” in the back of his knee during the Phillies’ blowout loss to the Indians on Sunday, though the belief is that he’s not battling a significant injury, Zolecki writes.
The Phillies are just about done in the National League, where they’re six games back of a wild-card spot as the final week of the season begins. Considering the franchise oversaw an ultra-aggressive winter but is now days away from increasing its playoff drought to eight years, it’s fair to say this season has been a letdown for Philly. However, last offseason’s trade for Realmuto – previously a star with the division-rival Marlins – has been anything but a disappointment. Realmuto has been the game’s premier catcher for the second straight year, having parlayed quality offense, terrific base running and defensive virtuosity into 5.6 fWAR/4.3 bWAR through 593 plate appearances.
The Phillies have seemingly little to play for at this point, which figures to increase their cautiousness in regards to Realmuto’s health. He’s slated to enter his final season of arbitration control in 2020, but the Phillies have made it clear that they want to extend the franchise backstop before a potential trip to free agency in another year-plus. Realmuto’s future is one of the key issues general manager Matt Klentak & Co. will address in the offseason.