Jeremy Hellickson Accepts Qualifying Offer
2:40pm: Hellickson tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that he was leaning toward declining the qualifying offer but changed his mind after multiple teams expressed reluctance to part with a draft pick when speaking to Boras (Twitter link).
1:11pm: Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson has accepted the one-year qualifying offer and will return to the Phillies for the 2017 season a $17.2MM salary, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). Hellickson, a client of the Boras Corporation, will become the fourth player to ever accept a QO, joining outfielder Colby Rasmus, left-hander Brett Anderson and catcher Matt Wieters — each of whom accepted a $15.8MM qualifying offer last winter.
[Related: Updated Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]
The news on Hellickson comes as somewhat of a surprise, given the dismal market for starting pitching. The 29-year-old Hellickson (30 next April) looked to be one of a select few arms that could be expected to deliver a quality season’s worth of innings in 2017 and, as such, was one of the few rotation options projected to receive a multi-year deal in free agency. However, Hellickson and his representatives have had the past week to survey the free-agent market while weighing the decision to accept Philadelphia’s offer, and clearly his camp wasn’t comfortable enough with his potential earning power to forgo a one-year deal at $17.2MM. That sum actually exceeds Hellickson’s career earnings to date, so his reluctance to pass on it is understandable from that point of view. He’ll now look to repeat was a strong 2016 season in the Phillies’ rotation and enter the open market next winter in advance of his age-31 season. If he’s able to do so, he could find himself in position for an even more lucrative deal, as he’d be coming off a two-year platform of quality work as opposed to the rebound campaign he enjoyed with the Phils this past year.
Acquired from the D-backs last winter in what amounted to be a salary dump, Hellickson tossed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball for the Phillies this year, averaging 7.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate. That represented a continuation of a strong second half in 2015, giving Hellickson a 3.74 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over his past 240 1/3 innings at the big league level. If he’s able to continue on at that pace in 2017, he should have no issues finding a sizable multi-year deal next winter, and there’s reason to believe that he could do so without needing to burden himself with a qualifying offer. The collective bargaining agreement is being renegotiated as we speak, and the flawed QO system is one of the main subjects of the newest wave of collective bargaining talks. Some reports have suggested that the new CBA will prevent players from being eligible for a QO in consecutive years, while other speculation has centered around eliminating the QO system altogether.
The long-term financial outcome for Hellickson remains to be seen, but his short-term prospects are set in stone at this point. After accepting the QO, he cannot be traded until June 15 of next season without his consent, so he’ll return to a Phillies rotation that’ll also include Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff. Philadelphia has a number of young arms that can compete for the final spot in that rotation, including right-handers Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher and Ben Lively. That group should give manager Pete Mackanin a solid starting mix in 2017, so the challenge for GM Matt Klentak, president Andy MacPhail and the rest of the Phillies’ front office will be to improve a lineup that was one of the worst, if not the worst in all of baseball last season. The Phils have already added one veteran bat to the mix in the form of Howie Kendrick, and they’ll presumably look to add some more respectable pieces to help round out a lineup that will be centered around Odubel Herrera and a hopefully improved Maikel Franco in 2017.
The Phillies will not receive the compensatory draft pick they likely expected to acquire when issuing Hellickson the QO in the first place, although having a capable arm back in their rotation on a one-year deal isn’t a disastrous outcome, even if it comes at somewhat of an overpay. Philadelphia, after all, has virtually no money committed to its long-term books, as Hellickson will join Kendrick ($10MM), recently acquired right-hander Pat Neshek ($6.5MM) and injured lefty Matt Harrison ($13.25MM plus a $2MM buyout of his 2018 option) as the only guaranteed contracts on next year’s roster. That, plus a modest projection of $12.8MM to four arbitration-eligible players (which could dip if Cody Asche and/or Jeanmar Gomez is non-tendered) brings them to a current Opening Day payroll projection of just $77.7MM (including pre-arb players). For a team that has previously spent as much as $177.7MM on its Opening Day payroll, the addition of Hellickson at $17.2MM is hardly a financial burden.
Taking a step back, the removal of Hellickson from the free-agent market takes an already terrible crop of starters and thins it even further. Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Jason Hammel are the top three starters available this winter, and teams in need of other arms will be left with few options. Those teams could turn to bounce-back candidates like Andrew Cashner, Edinson Volquez, Jake Peavy, Jorge De La Rosa and Doug Fister or look to get creative by signing someone such as Travis Wood and converting him back into a starter or pursuing international arms like Korea’s Kwang-hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang and Woo-chan Cha.
Otherwise, the trade market will be the most obvious method for teams to add to their respective rotations, though the lack of viable alternatives that are available through other means should place an abnormally high premium on rotation help. That was always going to be the case anyway; Hellickson’s subtraction from the free-agent class doesn’t create a shortage of pitching, but it certainly creates even more scarcity and should force one more team to get creative in seeking a starter, as he’ll now be returning to a team that didn’t otherwise seem like a plausible fit for him on a multi-year deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Like Howie Kendrick's Versatility
The Phillies plan to use newly acquired Howie Kendrick as their left fielder, but they value his versatility, writes Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice. “[F]or a young roster, especially with us likely to add many young players to our 40-man roster, having a player on the 25-man who has the ability to play left field, first base, second base, third base, really does provide Pete [Mackanin] with a lot of flexibility from a game to game basis,” GM Matt Klentak says. Kendrick’s versatility should help the Phillies avoid blocking young players who would benefit from big-league time. Klentak adds that the Phillies are not looking to trade second baseman Cesar Hernandez. If they do, though, Lawrence notes that Kendrick could see time at second, with Freddy Galvis potentially moving to the position if and when J.P. Crawford is promoted to play shortstop. Here’s more from the East divisions.
Phillies Acquire Howie Kendrick
The Phillies have acquired infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick from the Dodgers, per a club announcement. First baseman Darin Ruf and second baseman/outfielder Darnell Sweeney will head to Los Angeles in return.
Still, adding the veteran would seem to make it somewhat more likely that the Phils would feel comfortable parting with Cesar Hernandez, the incumbent at second. Hernandez, 26, added on-base ability to his speed and defense in 2016 for a surprisingly excellent campaign. With three years of control remaining, he is a rather appealing potential trade piece — not least of which since he has also spent time at short and center. Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that Hernandez drew strong interest at the GM Meetings, and while Kendrick may not currently be slated to step right in to replace him, it remains plausible that the Phillies could look to cash him in at some point over the coming months.
[RELATED: Updated Phillies & Dodgers Depth Charts]
Regardless of precisely how he fits, Kendrick will provide the Phillies with just the kind of veteran presence they entered the offseason in search of. And he’ll do so without requiring a multi-year commitment. If all goes well, he’ll bounce back after an uncharacteristically poor season at the plate. Kendrick ended with a .255/.326/.366 batting line, with eight home runs and ten steals, over 543 plate appearances. That was easily the worst full-season effort of his career.
If Kendrick can regain his form, he’ll help the team improve its level of play and may even turn into a trade or (perhaps less likely) qualifying offer candidate. There is some reason for hope. He maintained a strong 33.8% hard-hit rate even as his typically high BABIP dipped to .301 — easily a career-low. And Kendrick managed to boost his walk rate to a career-best 9.2% while maintaining his characteristically palatable strikeout numbers (his 17.7% K rate last year landed just north of his 17.2% career rate).
For the Dodgers, the swap was more about clearing payroll and roster space — particularly after Kendrick expressed disappointment with his usage. Now, the team’s needs in the corner outfield, and at second and third base, are all the more pronounced. Already a lefty-leaning club with the bats, Los Angeles seems primed to pursue right-handed hitting in more than one area this winter. But while the return wasn’t the driving force here, there’s reason to believe it could deliver some function, especially for the always-clever Los Angeles front office.
Ruf, 30, is perhaps likeliest to make an impact. He had a short and forgettable MLB stint last year, but raked at Triple-A and owns a .299/.379/.542 lifetime slash against left-handed pitching. True, the right-handed hitter has been sub-par without the platoon advantage, and contributes nothing on the bases or in the field (though he can play some first and, at least in limited doses, the corner outfield). He’s also out of options. But the Dodgers have a number of flexible assets and may like the idea of allowing Ruf to spell Adrian Gonzalez at first base and function as a right-handed bench bat — or, at least, giving him the chance to unseat Scott Van Slyke in such a role in camp.
Sweeney, too, has some potential uses. The 25-year-old switch-hitter, who originally came to Philadelphia from Los Angeles in the Chase Utley deal, is capable of playing all over. He didn’t hit much in a brief MLB debut in 2016, and struggled last year at Triple-A. But he has shown better at times in the past, even flashing double-digit home run power and real stolen base potential in several separate seasons, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he found his way onto the Dodgers’ roster at some point. Doing so would mean adding him back to the 40-man, as he had been outrighted by the Phils, but that too increases his appeal at this stage since he won’t occupy a roster spot upon his arrival.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jeremy Hellickson Leaning Toward Rejecting Qualifying Offer
Agent Scott Boras wouldn’t comment definitively on whether Jeremy Hellickson plans to accept or reject the Phillies’ $17.2MM qualifying offer on Wednesday, writes CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Hellickson has been advised to do so. Additionally, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that Hellickson is leaning toward declining the offer.
It’d come as a shock if Hellickson were to accept the QO, as he’s one of only a select few starters that can reasonably expect to command a strong multi-year deal this winter. Hellickson joins lefty Rich Hill and fellow righty Ivan Nova atop a historically thin market for starting pitching. On the heels of a 3.71 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate in 189 innings of work, Hellickson has a strong enough case that we pegged him seventh among free agents this winter and projected a four-year, $60MM contract for the former AL Rookie of the Year. And, as Heyman points out, Hellickson’s quality work dates back to the second half of the 2015 campaign with the D-backs. While that year was a disappointment overall, Hellickson did indeed have a nice run to close out the year, logging a 3.86 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate following the All-Star Game — numbers that look quite similar to his 2016 output.
As Salisbury writes, Boras said there’s already been considerable interest in Hellickson, which is to be expected given the dearth of options in free agency. “In this market, he’s probably the foremost young, under-30 pitcher,” said Boras. “You know, he had a 3.71 ERA in Philadelphia, which is an offensive ballpark. … He’s a guy that’s got the highest spin rate on a breaking ball. He has a lot of components that tell you why he’s successful — his command, changeup, breaking ball — and that’s creating a lot of interest for a lot of teams. And in a free-agent marketplace short on starting pitching — it’s very advantageous for him.”
If Hellickson does hit the open market — which seems exceptionally likely — it’s difficult to envision him re-signing with the Phillies. General manager Matt Klentak spoke to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi about Hellickson today at the GM Meetings (video link), telling him: “The fully honest answer is I’m happy and content either way. If we get Jeremy Hellickson back on a one-year deal, that’s great. He’s really good, and having a starting pitcher on a short-term deal is something that I’ll take every time. Conversely, if he ends up testing free agency, I’ll be rooting for him. I hope he gets every penny he’s worth, but we’ll be happy to take the draft pick.”
Hellickson and the other nine players that received qualifying offers from their respective teams have until Monday to determine whether they’ll accept or reject the offer, although any of those free agents can technically sign a deal before that deadline (which would be considered the equivalent of rejecting the QO). That’s a rare outcome, of course, though Michael Cuddyer signed a two-year deal with the Mets two years ago in the week between receiving a QO from the Rockies and the deadline to accept or decline. However, there’s been no indication that any of the free agents to receive a QO are anywhere near a decision.
Could Angels Pursue Cesar Hernandez?
- We heard yesterday that the Dodgers will consider dealing veteran infielder (and, more recently, outfielder) Howie Kendrick, with a reunion with the Angels cited as a possibility. But that’s not a very realistic scenario, in the estimation of Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter links). Though he only requires a one-year commitment, Kendrick also isn’t terribly cheap with $10MM owed for 2017. He’s also a right-handed bat, which wouldn’t be preferred, and has shown signs of decline in the field and at the plate. The Halos are likely “aiming higher,” per Fletcher, who recently broke down some options for the club. Los Angeles isn’t interested in moving Yunel Escobar to second, he notes, but will be pursuing outside additions. Fletcher cites Cesar Hernandez of the Phillies as a trade possibility, with Derek Dietrich of the Marlins and Scooter Gennett of the Brewers also representing possible trade candidates (though both would arguably best be paired with a platoon mate).
Phillies Hire Bryan Minniti From Diamondbacks; Arizona Hires Jared Porter From Cubs
7:43pm: Minniti had a two-year offer to stay in Arizona, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), but elected to seek a new opportunity elsewhere.
2:13pm: A pair of notable front office changes took place today, as the Phillies announced that they’ve hired D-backs assistant GM Bryan Minniti as a special assistant to general manager Matt Klentak. The Diamondbacks clearly already had a replacement for Minniti lined up, however, as they announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Cubs director of professional scouting Jared Porter and named him senior vice president and assistant general manager.
The moves come as just one in a flurry of promotions and hires for each team. Philadelphia has promoted Jorge Velendia to the same title as Minniti, hired a “Mental Skills” coach and made yet another add to its ever-growing analytics department, as PhillyVoice.com’s Ryan Lawrence explores in greater detail. The D-backs, meanwhile, announced that they’ve promoted director of player personnel Mike Bell to vice president of player development and named former Major League infielder Josh Barfield their new assistant director of pro scouting.
Minniti will bring the Phillies an executive with seven seasons as an assistant general manager under his belt. He comes from an analytical background, having double-majored in mathematics and statistics at the University of Pittsburgh and has been working in front offices since being hired as an intern by the Pirates back in 2001. The 36-year-old worked with the D-backs for the past two seasons and spent the previous five years with the Nationals, working on matters such as statistical analysis, budgeting and contract negotiations, per Arizona’s media guide.
The addition of Porter to the D-backs’ front office, meanwhile, gives the team another big-name executive with Red Sox roots to add to its leadership group. Porter was the Cubs’ scouting director this past season but is quite familiar with newly minted Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and newly hired assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye from the time the trio spent together with the Red Sox. Porter spent a dozen years working in the Red Sox organization and was the team’s director of pro scouting from 2012-15.
Dodgers “Exploring” Trade Involving Howie Kendrick
The Dodgers are looking into the possibility of a trade involving infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. It appears the move may be motivated at least in part by the fact that Kendrick was not enamored of his multi-positional usage last year.
Sources tell Rosenthal that the 33-year-old could end up being shipped to the Phillies, who apparently have interest. The Angels also make good sense, Rosenthal notes. It isn’t clear whether trade discussions are particularly active right now, or whether the possibility of a deal is something that will be pondered over the course of the offseason.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, gaining clarity on Kendrick may best be accomplished early. Though he spent significant time in left field in 2016, it had seemed rather likely that he’d return to his natural second base — whether or not joined by a platoon partner — for the season to come. Of course, the Dodgers surely wouldn’t be shy about utilizing him at third or in a broader utility role. But whether the team feels it can allocate resources elsewhere or simply thinks it’s better off honoring Kendrick’s apparent wishes, it seems there’s at least some momentum toward a deal.
Both of the teams mentioned make a good deal of sense on paper. The Phillies do have a rather productive second baseman on hand already, but could still use Kendrick in the infield or corner outfield. While the club isn’t exactly desperate to plug holes as a contender might be, it’s clearly seeking good value on respected veterans who don’t require multi-year commitments. With just one year and $10MM owed to Kendrick, he fits that mold perfectly, and Philly’s immense payroll space would easily accommodate the salary.
The Angels, likewise, are looking to avoid lengthy tie-ups, but in their case there’s a more urgent need to add quality major league pieces. Kendrick spent much of his career with Los Angeles’s other team, and the Halos have a clear need for a second baseman. Of course, the organization doesn’t necessarily have a lot of flexibility to move assets — whether major leaguers or prospects — to make a deal work.
Of course, the Dodgers may not have immense leverage in moving Kendrick. He was certainly not himself at the plate last year, slashing just .255/.326/.366 over 543 plate appearances, which made 2016 the worst offensive season of Kendrick’s career. And though Kendrick had typically rated well in the field, his 2015 work at second base was panned by defensive metrics. While he actually received solid marks in left field last year, that’s not really where his peak value lies.
Notes On Greg Holland’s Showcase
Free agent righty Greg Holland took the hill for scouts yesterday as he sets the stage for his return to action. The former Royals closer missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he’ll play an interesting role in the market with multiple big-payroll clubs among those seeking power arms at the back of their respective bullpens. Despite the long injury layoff, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rates Holland 23rd in earning power among free agents, noting that a wide variety of organizations could pursue him. Joel Sherman of the New York Post covered the showcase, and we’ve also heard additional reports about which teams were represented.
Here’s the latest:
- The most important aspect of the appearance was Holland’s health, and Sherman writes that scouts came away feeling optimistic in that regard after seeing 35 pitches. Though the typically fireballing righty sat in the 89 to 90 mph range with his fastball, he’s obviously still building up arm strength. One scout explained that Holland worked with “good extension” in showing off his heater and ballyhooed slider, suggesting he’s ready to continue working back to his prior form.
- Agent Scott Boras argued that his client, who’ll soon turn 31, represents a great value for teams unwilling or unable to sign top closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon. He predicted a multi-year deal, with a two-year arrangement laden with incentives possibly making sense for all involved. It remains to be seen just how much cash teams will be willing to promise Holland, who had faltered in 2015 while pitching through the elbow problems that ultimately resulted in surgery. But the upside is undeniable: from 2011 through 2014, he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
- All told, about sixty scouts were on hand to watch, says Sherman, with about 18 clubs putting eyes on the righty. We had previously heard that the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees would be joined by the Twins in attendance. Sherman notes that GM Bobby Evans and a top scouting exec were on hand for the closing-needy Giants, with the Yankees also sending top talent evaluators. He also lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Phillies as organizations that sent reps. The Royals, too, were watching their former hurler, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets, as were the division-rival Tigers, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). And the two top NL East clubs — the Nationals and Mets — were also intrigued enough to send scouts, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin.
Phillies Make Qualifying Offer To Jeremy Hellickson
3:56pm: Philadelphia has officially announced the offer to Hellickson.
10:33pm: The Phillies will make a qualifying offer today to right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll have a week to decide whether to take the one-year, $17.2MM offer or instead enter the free agent market with the requirement that a new team sacrifice a draft pick to sign him.
Depending upon one’s perspective, this move will come as obvious or as quite a surprise. All the chatter around the team of late has suggested that Hellickson was in line to be tagged with a QO — which became especially clear when the Phils decided not to move him at the trade deadline. But Hellickson has never been a frontline arm and perhaps doesn’t feel like the type of player who’d typically have this level of cash dangled.
Hellickson is coming off of his best season in some time, as he contributed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball to the Phils. His peripherals are in about the same range as usual, though, as he ended with 7.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7% groundball rate. ERA estimators weren’t particularly excited: Hellickson did post full-season career lows in FIP (3.98) and xFIP (3.99), though those are hardly stellar marks. His SIERA has landed between 4.04 and 4.15 in each of the last four seasons, and perhaps that’s the best indication of what teams can reasonably expect moving forward.
Ultimately, it’s not hard to see Philadelphia’s reasoning, especially given the runaway spending seen last winter on starting pitching and the thin supply available this winter. If he were to take the offer, it may be something of an overpay for a single season. But it would only be a one-year commitment, and this organization can certainly afford it — and might even welcome the chance to welcome back the righty after a sturdy campaign. If he rejects it, of course, Philly would line up to add a draft pick that could be quite valuable at this stage of the team’s rebuilding effort.
There’s something of a win-win in the decision for the team. From Hellickson’s perspective, the offer is not welcome, but there are silver linings as well. For one thing, it’s nice to have this kind of cash on the table, even if it’s only on a one-year rate. And the offer suggests that the Phils were impressed with him last year, which provides some information to the rest of the market. If Hellickson prefers to stay in Philadelphia, he could still negotiate a lengthier pact. But given the state of the pitching market, there’s good reason to think he can turn down the QO and still do just fine in free agency.
Phillies Acquire Pat Neshek
The Phillies have struck a deal to acquire reliever Pat Neshek from the Astros, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle first reported (via Twitter). Houston will receive a player to be named later or cash in the swap.
Neshek, 36, was controllable for the coming season through a $6.5MM club option. Philadelphia has exercised that option, as it announced along with the trade. The Astros were reportedly considering a trade of the veteran righty with his option decision coming due, and found a willing partner in a Phillies organization that has a need for bullpen depth.
The sidearming Neshek primarily delivers a sinker-slider combo has been rather effective over the past few years. While he hasn’t matched his output from a breakout 2014 stint with the Cardinals, Neshek is fresh off a year in which he contributed 47 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
Neshek has never carried much velocity, and has maintained his average fastball over recent years, so his age isn’t a significant concern. The biggest issue is his performance against lefties, who torched him for a .250/.321/.646 batting line and four home runs in 55 plate appearances last year. Of course, Neshek was exceedingly stingy when facing righties, who managed an anemic .172/.209/.254 batting line against him in 2016.
Those dramatic splits make Neshek somewhat unlikely to challenge for the Phillies’ somewhat unsettled closer’s role. But he could take an important spot in the pecking order for late-inning setup opportunities. Neshek provides the team with a veteran pen piece to help lock down winnable games as the Phils seek to move back towards contention — just the kind of target posited in our offseason outlook for the organization. He could also turn into a deadline trade chip. With only a single-season commitment required, and very little on the Philadelphia books, it was a fairly easy risk to take.
[RELATED: Updated Phillies Depth Chart]
For the Astros, whose bullpen was one of the game’s very best last year, it obviously made more sense to re-allocate the cash that might otherwise have gone to Neshek. Houston has plenty of options on hand to take over Neshek’s innings, and is already busying itself with building out the rest of its roster as it seeks to return to the postseason following a disappointing 2016 campaign.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.