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2013 Contract Issues: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies are next in MLBTR’s 2013 Contract Issues series:

Eligible For Free Agency (7)

  • Cole Hamels - Hamels might be the offseason's most coveted free agent. He'll turn down the Phillies' qualifying offer after the season in search of a multiyear deal. If the Phillies are willing to commit six or seven years at $20MM or more per season, they'll be in the running for Hamels. If not, he figures to sign elsewhere.
  • Juan Pierre - Pierre won't be available on another minor league deal if he keeps hitting like this. 
  • Chad Qualls - The durable right-hander could figure in to the 2013 bullpen on another one-year deal.
  • Shane Victorino - The center fielder would like to stay in Philadelphia on a five-year deal. The Phillies seem interested in retaining him, but haven't ruled out a midseason trade.
  • Jim Thome - Thome turns 42 in August; at some point in the not-too-distant future his Hall of Fame career figures to come to an end.
  • Joe Blanton - Blanton's off to a tremendous start and could be setting himself up for a guaranteed one or two-year deal this winter.
  • Brian Schneider - Schneider, 35, continues to add value in a reserve role. It wouldn't be surprising to see him re-sign in Philadelphia.

Contract Options (4)

  • Placido Polanco: $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout. The Phillies don't have a long-term solution at third base and could look to bring Polanco back. However, mutual options are rarely exercised by both sides.
  • Ty Wigginton: $4MM option with a $500K buyout. The Phillies have relied heavily on Wigginton at the infield corners this year, but $4MM may be more than they care to spend on a 34-year-old utility player whose power is waning.
  • Carlos Ruiz: $5MM club option with a $500K buyout. The Phillies will exercise this option, barring something unforeseen.
  • Jose Contreras: $2.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. I don't expect the Phillies to exercise the 40-year-old's option this offseason.

Arbitration Eligible (5)

Few arbitration eligible players will earn more than Pence in 2013. The right fielder can expect a raise to $13-14MM with a typical season, so the Phillies will be spending more on one player than some teams do on their entire arbitration classes. Beyond Pence, there's a pair of first-time eligible relievers and two infielders who could very well be non-tendered.

2013 Payroll Obligation

The Phillies, who are spending $172MM on this year's team, have committed $112.6MM to next year's payroll. If ownership boosts payroll much more, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will bump up against the luxury tax at $178MM. Whether the Phillies approach the luxury tax depends largely on where Hamels and Victorino sign.

Phillies Not Prioritizing Roy Oswalt

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The placement of Vance Worley on the disabled list got some talking about the Phillies’ lack of depth and Roy Oswalt potentially returning.  However, General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. isn’t looking to sign the veteran anytime soon, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

“We think he’s throwing,” Amaro Jr. said. “I guess he is. But right now what I’m worried about is our team playing better. That’s my focus right now. I feel comfortable with the starters we have. If we get to the point where we’re not comfortable with him then that might be something we explore. But I will tell you that right now I’m happy with our guys the way we are right now, unless something changes. I think we’ve got other fish to fry right now.”

The money that could be spent on the 34-year-old could also be allocated towards acquisitions via trade, but the Phillies have yet to determine whether they will be buyers or sellers.  Fellow pitcher Jake Peavy recently gave Oswalt his endorsement, telling Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he’ll be ready to contribute this year.

NL East Notes: Wang, Nationals, Phillies, Mets

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Some intra-divisional action in the National League East tonight as the Braves and Marlins are underway in Miami.  More out of the division..

  • Nationals hurler Chien-Ming Wang told reporters, including Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, that he'd be willing to move into the bullpen when he returns to the majors.  However, Kilgore writes that the Nats are unlikely to ask him to do that.  Washington currently has a surplus of starting pitching with Ross Detwiler in the fifth spot and John Lannan in Triple-A.
  • Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) writes that the Phillies should make trades to replenish their thin farm system.  Acquisitions such as Cliff Lee and Hunter Pence have cost them youth but moving potential free agents Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino could change that if they decide against signing them.  Bowden also opines that the Red Sox should explore the trade market.
  • Mets owner Fred Wilpon may be iffy on David Wright as a superstar, but he would like him as a son-in-law, tweets David Lennon of Newsday.  "If I had another daughter, I’d love if she married a David Wright," said Wilpon.

Olney On Tigers, Cardinals, Oswalt

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MLB executives are looking ahead to the summer trade deadline and, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, there’s an expectation that certain teams will be particularly aggressive in trade talks this July. Here are the details…

  • Executives expect the Tigers, Dodgers and Cardinals to be among the most aggressive teams this summer. As one person pointed out, the Tigers figure to be aggressive after committing $214MM to Prince Fielder. Detroit could use pitching help or could consider trading for a second baseman or left fielder.
  • Rival GMs say the Cardinals will be active when a need emerges.
  • Some people with the Phillies expected Roy Oswalt to eventually find his way back to Philadelphia, Olney tweets. The Phillies placed Vance Worley on the disabled list today, which could create an opening for Oswalt. However, the Phillies haven’t determined whether to be buyers or sellers this summer.

Phillies, Rays Swap Rich Thompson For Kyle Hudson

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The Phillies have traded outfielder Rich Thompson to the Rays for outfielder Kyle Hudson, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter). Both players have been playing in Triple-A this season.

Thompson, 33, has hit .307/.390/.398 in 101 plate appearances for Philadelphia's top minor league affiliate this season. He's a .276/.349/.383 career hitter in over 3,400 plate appearances at Triple-A, where he's spent the last five years with the Phillies' organization. Thompson has one big league plate appearances to his credit, coming with the Royals back in 2004.

Hudson, 25, has hit .291/.378/.318 in 133 Triple-A plate appearances this season. He had four singles in 29 plate appearances for the Orioles last year, resulting in a .143/.143/.143 batting line. The Rays originally acquired him from the Rangers at the end of Spring Training.

AL East Notes: Bergesen, Wakefield, Youkilis

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The injury bug continues to bite notable AL East players.  The Yankees put closer David Robertson on the 15-day DL with a strained left oblique, while Rays starter Jeff Niemann will miss the next 4-6 weeks after suffering a broken fibula during last night's game in Toronto.  Rafael Soriano will take over as New York's new closer while the Rays will call up either Alex Cobb or Chris Archer to take Niemann's spot in the rotation.

Here's some other news from around the division…

  • The Orioles haven't put Brad Bergesen on waivers since they're still trying to trade the right-hander, tweets Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.  The O's designated Bergesen for assignment on Saturday.
  • "The fire to compete is still there," Tim Wakefield tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link), but while retirement is "difficult," the knuckleballer said he's enjoying spending time with his family.  The Red Sox honored Wakefield with a pregame ceremony before their 5-0 win over the Mariners this afternoon at Fenway Park.
  • David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News speculates about a Kevin Youkilis-for-Joe Blanton trade between the Red Sox and Phillies.  I don't see the Red Sox making that deal, as I'm not sure Blanton could replicate his current good form in the AL East, nor is he necessarily even a clear upgrade over any of Boston's current rotation.

Trade Candidate: Cole Hamels

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The Phillies aren't accustomed to losing more than they win, but if their early-season struggles continue and they're out of contention by the July 31st trade deadline, they could become sellers. Teams are already asking about Cole Hamels and the inquiries will become more frequent if the Phillies don't re-enter the NL East race within the next two months.

Cole Hamels - Phillies (PW)

Hamels has been the 12th-most valuable pitcher in baseball since he first broke in to the Major Leagues in 2006, according to FanGraphs' version of the wins above replacement metric. He's off to another tremendous start, with a 2.28 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 41.3% ground ball rate through 47 1/3 innings in 2012. He'll be the best pitcher available if the Phillies decide they're serious about selling.

Yet two factors will limit Hamels' value for potentially interested teams. He’ll be a free agent in a few months and there's no indication he's willing to sign an extension at a discount, especially this close to the open market. Secondly, any team that acquires him can’t get a compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere. Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement teams don't obtain future draft picks for losing players they acquired midseason. Interested teams would be looking at a two or three-month rental.

Recent midseason deals involving elite left-handed pitchers haven’t worked out particularly well for the teams obtaining prospects. Hamels’ teammate Cliff Lee was traded for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson in 2009 then dealt for Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak the following season. The Brewers acquired C.C. Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson in 2008. 

The Indians and Mariners haven’t obtained the elite performers they were hoping for, but Knapp, Carrasco, Smoak and LaPorta were considered top prospects when they were dealt. There’s no reason for the Phillies to expect less than an elite prospect plus secondary pieces for Hamels. They may even aim to obtain multiple top prospects for the left-hander. If no team meets their asking price, they can hold onto Hamels, tender him a one-year contract this offseason and obtain draft pick compensation assuming he declines the offer and signs elsewhere. 

Though Hamels' contract expires after the season, he has the potential to become the primary attraction of this summer's trade market. The Blue Jays have reportedly checked in on him and it's easy to envision teams such as the Red Sox, Tigers and Dodgers expressing interest if Hamels does become available. Other clubs will surely lose starting pitchers to the disabled list in the coming ten weeks, so new interest will emerge.

Ruben Amaro Jr. has successfully navigated the midseason trade deadline as a buyer, trading for front-of-the-rotation starters Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. The GM could face a new challenge this summer if the last-place Phillies don't improve on their 16-19 record. Amaro would have leverage, since Hamels would generate considerable interest and the Phillies could always keep him and obtain draft pick compensation in 2013 if interested teams propose one-sided trades.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Quick Hits: Quentin, Nationals, Hamilton, Phillies

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This morning, the Nationals learned that catcher Wilson Ramos will miss most, if not all, of the 2012 season.  It was an unfortunate piece of news for the club, but it did create an opportunity for 23-year-old catcher Sandy Leon, who was promoted to support Jesus Flores behind the plate.  When Leon found out, he called his parents to let them know that he was Washington-bound, tweets Bill Ladson of MLB.com.  The catcher, who was previously with the club's Double-A affiliate, said it was the best Mother's Day gift that he could possibly give to his mom.  Here are some links from around baseball..

  • The San Diego Union-Tribune's Sharon Annie Heilbrunn conducted a Q&A with Carlos Quentin. The new Padres outfielder discussed what it was like to be traded to his hometown team and how he's grown through the trades he's been a part of.
  • As of right now, there is no talk of the Nationals bringing Ivan Rodriguez in as the backup catcher, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com (via Twitter).  The 40-year-old announced his retirement from baseball last month.
  • Some believe that the Rangers' knowledge about Hamilton's history would make them less likely to sign him than other clubs, but Buster Olney of ESPN.com believes that it makes them more likely to sign him.  The Rangers know the ins-and-outs of the outfielder's past and have an idea of how to best support him.
  • Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer wants to see Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro channel Pat Gillick in order to turn things around.
  • Steven Cohen, hedge-fund billionaire and runner-up in the bidding for the Dodgers, is thought to be one of at least five potential buyers scoping out the Padres' financial data, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  The O'Malley family is also interested in buying the club.

Cafardo On Red Sox, Youkilis, Beckett, Nationals

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wonders what is at the root of the Red Sox’s pitching woes.  Some around baseball feel that the club’s hurlers are missing catcher Jason Varitek.  “He did a lot for that team in terms of getting the staff ready for each team,’’ said an American League GM. “They depended on him like no team depended on a catcher anywhere in baseball, with the possible exception of St. Louis, where Yadier Molina seems to have that effect.’’  Here’s more from Cafardo..

  • An AL GM told Cafardo that there could be a market for embattled Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett, but the club would have to be willing to eat more than half of his contract.  Beckett will earn $15.75MM each year through 2014.
  • If Red Sox Kevin Youkilis can show he’s healthy, there’s a strong third base market out there for Boston. A National League special assignment scout told Cafardo that the Giants and Phillies are looking while the Rays could factor in, even though they say they aren’t in search of an answer at third base.
  • The Nationals would like to deal left-hander John Lannan but teams appear more interested in Chien Ming-Wang. The Nationals also have a good thing going and have created competition on their staff, as Wang and Lannan could push the other five. 
  • One American League GM doesn’t see the Phillies parting with Cole Hamels via trade.  “The [Blue] Jays are looking to do something big,” said an American League GM. “I just don’t see the Phillies bailing out on Hamels. They can still win it.“
  • The Rangers probably won’t let Josh Hamilton leave in free agency, but if he does look elsewhere, the Dodgers could be a fit for him with their new-found dollars.  Signing Hamilton would also allow the club to let Andre Ethier head into the market.

Olney On Hamels, Victorino, Youkilis, Dodgers

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A look at today's column from Buster Olney of ESPN.com..

  • The Phillies could have an ulterior motive in exploring trade possibilities for left-hander Cole Hamels and center fielder Shane Victorino.  The club could be suggesting that they are willing to trade the two veterans in order to pressure them to come to the negotiating table.  However, it both cases, there appears to be a significant gap to overcome.
  • Olney speculates that the Dodgers could be a good landing spot this summer for Kevin Youkilis if James Loney doesn't turn things around and the club is in search of an upgrade at first.  Youkilis, of course, would have to appear healthy enough to take on for the rest of the season.
  • The Blue Jays don't have a master plan for Vladimir Guerrero as they basically signed him for organizational depth, similar to what the Rays did by signing Hideki Matsui.  If Guerrero shows in Triple-A that he can be a productive player, and a need arises for the Jays, then he could be promoted.  If a need doesn't develop, then the club will allow Guerrero to pursue better opportunities elsewhere. 
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