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Cubs Designate Eric Sogard For Assignment

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The Cubs announced Friday that they’ve designated veteran infielder Eric Sogard for assignment in order to open a roster spot for fellow infield veteran Matt Duffy, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

Sogard, 35, signed a minor league deal over the winter but has made his way into 78 games with the Cubs and tallied 180 plate appearances. He’s seen time at second base, where he has a lengthy track record as a plus defender, and third base for the Cubs this season but managed only a .249/.283/.314 batting line at the plate.

Sogard had a strong showing as recently as 2019, when he hit .290/.353/.457 in 442 plate appearances, but he’s struggled both in 2020 and in 2021. The Cubs will have a week to trade him, place him on outright waivers or release him. He has enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if/when he clears waivers.

Duffy, another minor league signee, has been out since late May with a lower back strain. When healthy, the 30-year-old had proven to be a nice buy-low pickup for the Cubs, batting .278/.377/.356 and playing top-notch defense at the hot corner. It’s a nice start to what would be a rebound from injury-plagued stretch for the former Giants/Rays infielder. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end, and while the Cubs may elect to keep him around and stabilize the roster after an expected flurry of trades in the coming days, it’s also possible that a club in need of some bench depth might look at a healthy Duffy as an intriguing addition in his own right.

Draft Signings: 7/22/21

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The latest on some notable Day Two draft signings.  For more on the 2021 draft, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

  • The Twins agreed to deals with Competitive Balance Round A pick Noah Miller and second-rounder Steve Hajjar, the team announced.  As the 36th overall pick, Miller had an assigned slot price of $2,045,400, and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter) reports that the high school shortstop’s bonus was under slot at $1.7MM.  Hajjar’s bonus hasn’t yet been reported, but the 61st overall pick has an assigned price of $1,129,700.
  • The Rockies announced the signing of second-round pick Jaden Hill, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reporting the LSU righty signed for the $1,689,500 slot price attached to the 44th overall pick.  Also from Callis, the Rockies agreed to another at-slot deal with Ohio University southpaw Joe Rock, whose deal is worth the assigned $953,100 price for the 68th overall pick.
  • The Mets signed 46th overall pick Calvin Ziegler for a $910K bonus, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports.  The Canadian right-hander’s deal falls significantly below the $1,617,400 slot value, so the Mets gained some significant pool savings that were necessary for the above-slot deal in the works with tenth overall pick Kumar Rocker.
  • The Brewers signed second-rounder Russell Smith for a $1MM bonus, Callis tweets.  A left-hander out of TCU, Smith was the 51st overall pick, which has a slot value of $1,436,900.
  • The Cubs agreed to a $2.1MM bonus with second-round pick James Triantos, according to Callis.  It’s an overslot deal for Triantos, a high school third baseman from Virginia, as the 56th overall selection had an assigned price of only $1,276,400.
  • The Rays reached a deal with second-rounder Kyle Manzardo, with Callis reporting that the Washington State first baseman signed for $750K.  The 63rd overall pick (and the final pick of the second round proper) has a slot price of $1,076,300.
  • The Astros went well over slot to sign third-rounder Tyler Whitaker, as Callis reported that the high school outfielder landed a $1.5MM bonus.  That is more than double the $689,300 slot price for the 87th overall pick.  Of note, Whitaker was Houston’s first pick of the 2021 draft, due to their punishment from the sign-stealing scandal.
  • The Yankees also more than doubled the slot price on a third-round selection, as Callis writes that prep left-hander Brock Selvidge received $1.5MM.  The 92nd overall pick has a recommended value of only $637.6K.  The Yankees have now signed all their draft picks from the first 10 rounds, going underslot on eight of the 10 players.

Cubs Claim Frank Schwindel Off Waivers From Athletics

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The Cubs announced they’ve claimed first baseman Frank Schwindel off waivers from the Athletics and optioned him to Triple-A Iowa. Oakland designated Schwindel for assignment earlier this week. The Cubs had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.

Oakland signed Schwindel to a minor league deal over the winter and selected him to the big league roster late last month. He only tallied twenty plate appearances with the A’s before they removed him from the 40-man when Mitch Moreland returned from the injured list.

Schwindel hasn’t yet had much of a look at the MLB level, but the 29-year-old has had a fantastic Triple-A season. Through 207 plate appearances with the A’s top affiliate in Las Vegas, Schwindel has hit .317/.362/.630 with sixteen home runs. Those numbers are no doubt aided by Vegas’ extremely hitter-friendly environment, but it’s eye-opening production nonetheless.

At the moment, the Cubs have first base spoken for in franchise icon Anthony Rizzo. An impending free agent, Rizzo has obviously come up in trade speculation with the Cubs looking likely to sell off from the big league roster over the coming weeks. Claiming Schwindel doesn’t make a Rizzo trade any more likely; Schwindel still has all three minor league option years remaining and is probably being brought on as a right-handed hitting bench bat. If the Cubs do wind up dealing Rizzo, though, that could afford Schwindel a greater path to playing time than he had in Oakland, where Matt Olson had first base locked down.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported the news shortly before the official announcement.

Cubs Will Reportedly Try Again On Rizzo, Baez Extensions Before Exploring Trades

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The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original  seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.

Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.

As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.

Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll  turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.

For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.

Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.

The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.

As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.

Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.

Cubs Sign First-Round Pick Jordan Wicks

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The Cubs announced this afternoon that they’ve agreed to terms with first-round draft pick Jordan Wicks. Wicks will receive a signing bonus of $3.1323MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s exact slot value for the 21st overall pick, with which Wicks was selected. Wicks is represented by Craig Rose of Paragon Sports International.

In fact, the Cubs have come to terms with nearly all of their top picks, the club announced. Among their draftees in the top ten rounds, only second-rounder James Triantos, a third baseman from a Virginia high school, has yet to put pen to paper.

Wicks is viewed by evaluators as one of the more polished and safer arms in this year’s class. The 21-year-old performed well in all three of his seasons at Kansas State University (and dominated in a four-start cameo in the wood bat Northwoods League last summer). Over the course of his career with the Wildcats, Wicks pitched to a 3.24 ERA across 203 innings, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking just 6.8% of opponents.

The southpaw’s quality three-pitch mix is headlined by perhaps the best changeup in this year’s class. He also draws praise for his ability to command both sides of the plate and throws a 90-94 MPH fastball and a low-mid 80’s slider. Each of Baseball America, Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and Keith Law of the Athletic slotted Wicks among the twenty most talented players in this year’s class, with Longenhagen and Goldstein writing that Wicks “is the surest healthy bet (in the class) to stick in a rotation” aside from top ten picks Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker.

Nationals Have Interest In Kris Bryant

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The Nationals are among the teams with interest in Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There will certainly be plenty of other suitors for the former NL MVP, who might wind up being the top player traded over the next two weeks.

Indeed, the Nats aren’t the only team in the NL East reportedly looking into a Bryant acquisition. The division-leading Mets were linked to the four-time All-Star last night. On the surface, New York looks to be a more obvious deadline buyer than Washington, who enters tonight’s game with a 42-47 record. In fact, Bryant’s current club is actually a game and a half above the Nats in the Wild Card race.

That said, the Nationals haven’t been shy about trying to make a playoff push when the opportunity presents itself under general manager Mike Rizzo. They’re six games back of the Mets (albeit with the Phillies and Braves also ahead of them) in a division where no teams have separated themselves from the pack. Washington has a difficult three-game series against the Padres this weekend, but that’s followed by dates with the Marlins and Orioles next week, which could give them an opportunity to make up some ground in the standings.

If the Nationals do look to add to the big league roster in the coming weeks, third base is an obvious area to upgrade. Washington has gotten below-average production (.280/.333/.369) at the hot corner over the course of the year, where nearly all of the playing time has gone to Starlin Castro. Castro was placed on administrative leave this afternoon as Major League Baseball investigates domestic violence allegations made against him. Jordy Mercer started at third base tonight in Washington’s first game out of the All-Star Break.

Bryant, of course, would be an upgrade over most teams’ third base situations. The 29-year-old has bounced back from a poor 2020 campaign to hit at an excellent .271/.353/.502 level with sixteen home runs over 329 plate appearances. He’s tailed off after a scorching start to the year, but Bryant’s overall body of work is one of the better ones in the sport.

Of the 231 hitters to accrue 200+ plate appearances in 2021, Bryant is tied for 40th with a 132 wRC+. Relative to last season, he’s drawing more walks, striking out less often and making a higher rate of hard contact. Bryant hasn’t regained the MVP-caliber form he showed early in his career, but his All-Star selection in 2021 was certainly deserved.

The general expectation is that Bryant will wind up on the move between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Cubs president Jed Hoyer suggested last week the team would listen to offers for players on their big league roster on the heels of an 11-game losing streak. They traded outfielder Joc Pederson to the Braves — a team with which the Cubs are ostensibly in competition for a Wild Card berth — for first base prospect Bryce Ball last night. And while Chicago’s reportedly planning to engage in extension talks with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Báez before the trade deadline, there’s no indication that’s the case with Bryant.

One potential obstacle to a Bryant trade is salary. He signed a $19.5MM deal to avoid arbitration over the winter, approximately $8.3MM of which remains to be paid. The Nationals typically run higher than average payrolls, and their $183MM estimated figure (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) for this season is about $14MM shy of the franchise’s 2019 outlay. That could suggest there’s room on the books for Bryant, although it remains to be seen if ownership’s keen on making such an investment in a team that entered play tonight with a meager 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, in FanGraphs’ estimation.

The other important potential roadblock to a deal that sends Bryant to the nation’s capital is the Nationals’ thin farm system. Certainly, every team in the league could put together a prospect package sufficient to land Bryant, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end. But Heyman hears that the Nats don’t want to trade their top two prospects, right-handed pitchers Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge.

If that’s the case, it could be difficult for the Nationals to beat the market for Bryant. Infielder Yasel Antuna is the only other player in the system who garners a 45 FV ranking or better from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and he’s hitting .191/.269/.347 in High-A this year. First-round pick Brady House will certainly vault near the top of the organizational rankings once he signs a professional contract, but 2021 draftees can’t be traded until next offseason. Perhaps the Cubs would have interest in former top prospect Carter Kieboom, but his stock has dimmed amidst some struggles at the big league level and he’s currently on the minor league injured list with a knee issue.

It stands to reason more teams will join the Nationals and Mets as having reported interest in Bryant in the coming weeks. The Cubs look primed to be one of the deadline’s most active sellers, and Bryant’s production and laundry list of accolades will make him perhaps the highest-profile player on the trade market.

Braves Acquire Joc Pederson From Cubs

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The Braves and Cubs have swung a notable trade, as outfielder Joc Pederson is on his way to Atlanta in exchange for first base prospect Bryce Ball.  Both teams have announced the trade, and there doesn’t appear to be any money changing hands in the deal.  This means the Braves will absorb all of the approximately $1.84MM remaining of Pederson’s $4.5MM salary for the 2021 season, as well as the $2.5MM buyout of the $10MM mutual option on his services for 2022.

Pederson addresses a clear and obvious need in the outfield for Atlanta after superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. was lost for the season due to a torn ACL.  Pederson has a lot of center field experience over his career, though it is probably more likely that he’ll be deployed mostly as a corner outfielder for the Braves.  With Pederson handling left or right field on a regular basis and Guillermo Heredia getting the bulk of the work in center field, the Braves can toggle between Orlando Arcia, Ehire Adrianza, Ender Inciarte and Abraham Almonte for the other corner spot and as backup options.

Joc PedersonSome type of right-handed hitting option might be necessary as a complement to Pederson, who has a modest .271/.348/.339 slash line in 66 PA against left-handed pitching this season.  His decision to sign a free agent deal with the Cubs last winter was made in part because Chicago offered Pederson a chance to every day rather than in a platoon capacity, and his numbers are still an improvement from his overall career line against left-handed pitching.  The batting average and OBP are at least respectable enough that the Braves might still use Pederson as more or less an everyday player just to plug one outfield hole.

It also possible the Braves could add another outfielder on the trade market, since today’s swap indicates that the club hasn’t conceded anything in the wake of Acuna’s devastating injury.  Atlanta has a 44-45 record but sits just 3.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the NL East.  Since the Braves have a tough schedule between now and the July 30 trade deadline (five games against the Mets, three against the Phillies, and three each against playoff contenders Tampa Bay and San Diego), it also isn’t out of the question that Pederson could be flipped again if the Braves struggle over the next two weeks and decide to sell some pieces.

An above-average bat for most of his seven seasons with the Dodgers, Pederson was also dealt to the Angels in a rather infamously scuttled deal prior to the 2020 campaign, but he remained on L.A.’s blue team long enough to capture a World Series ring.  He posted a .991 OPS over 37 plate appearances during the Dodgers’ postseason run, providing a happy ending after a struggle (.681 OPS in 138 PA) of a regular season.

The Braves had some interest in Pederson as a free agent, but he ended up signing with Chicago, and still hasn’t really gotten himself right at the plate.  Pederson has been a slightly below-average (95 wRC+, 96 OPS+) hitter in 287 total plate appearances this season, hitting .230/.300/.418 with 11 home runs.  All 11 of those homers have come against right-handed pitching, yet while Pederson sought out more playing time against lefties during the winter, the irony is that he has now struggled to hit righties for two straight seasons.  Pederson has only a .218/.285/.442 slash line in 221 PA against righties this year.

The Cubs have a 44-46 record, only a half-game behind the Braves in the standings and yet seemingly a world apart in terms of expectations for the remainder of the 2021 season.  Chicago has won just six of its last 25 games, thanks to a crushing 11-game losing streak that seems to have put them in a seller’s mindset as the deadline approaches.  As a rental player, Pederson was a natural trade chip to be moved, and speculation has swirled for months that such impending free agents (and franchise cornerstones) such as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo could be on the move by July 30.

Today’s trade could be the first of many for the Cubs over the next two weeks, and the Wrigleyville side has already picked up one interesting minor leaguer in Ball.  A 24th-round pick for Atlanta in the 2019 draft, Ball was a power-heavy prospect who immediately displayed that skill in his first pro season, batting a cumulative .329/.395/.628 with 17 homers over 263 PA with the Braves’ rookie league and A-ball teams in 2019.  It hasn’t been as smooth for Ball this year, however, with only a .207/.354/.396 slash line in 212 PA at high-A ball, including a power dropoff resulting in only six home runs and a big reduction in slugging percentage.

MLB Pipeline ranked Ball as the 12th-best prospect in the Braves’ farm system, so he is more than just a lottery ticket at age 23 if the Cubs development system can sharpen his hitting potential.  For the sake of future trade speculation, Ball isn’t really enough of a premium first base prospect that it would make a Rizzo trade any more likely than it already is, necessarily.  (By that same token, dealing a first base prospect probably also isn’t a hint about Freddie Freeman’s future with the Braves, though Freeman certainly doesn’t look like a trade candidate.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs, Braves Didn't Discuss Kimbrel During Pederson Trade Talks

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The Cubs dealt Joc Pederson to the Braves tonight, though a prominent former Brave wasn’t part of the talks between the two teams, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) reports that Craig Kimbrel’s availability wasn’t discussed.  Kimbrel would obviously have been a major boost for an inconsistent Atlanta bullpen, but Kimbrel is both considerably more expensive than Pederson and the Cubs surely would’ve demanded a much higher prospect return for the All-Star closer.  Acquiring Kimbrel also would have been a clear all-in move for a Braves team that is still only 44-45, and perhaps only in contention by dint of a congested NL East.  It’s possible that Atlanta might still pivot and start selling by the trade deadline if the team sinks further under the .500 mark over the next two weeks.

  • Madison Bumgarner will be activated from the 10-day injured list to start the Diamondbacks’ game with the Cubs on Friday, according to multiple reporters (including The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan).  Bumgarner has been out of action due to shoulder inflammation since June 3, continuing what has thus far been a disastrous tenure in Arizona for the veteran lefty.  Since signing a five-year, $85MM free agent deal in the 2019-20 offseason, Bumgarner has battled injuries and posted only a 6.04 ERA over 101 1/3 innings.  It is very unlikely that a team will come calling about Bumgarner at the deadline given the size of his remaining contract, so the left-hander’s second half will just be about staying healthy and posting some solid numbers as a platform for better things next year.

Mets Interested In Kris Bryant

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Kris Bryant is drawing interest from multiple teams as the trade deadline approaches, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reporting that the Mets are one of the clubs considering the former NL MVP.  There isn’t any indication that the Cubs are close to a deal with the Mets or any other team about Bryant, though tonight’s trade of Joc Pederson indicates that the Cubs are indeed open for business with more than two weeks to go before the trade deadline.

This isn’t the first time that Bryant has been linked to the Mets, as Chicago and New York reportedly had discussions involving Bryant during the offseason (though Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said reports of those talks were inaccurate).  Speculatively, if J.D. Davis was indeed discussed as part of a potential trade return and if he is still on the Cubs’ radar, it could be that nothing might get done between the Mets and Cubs about Bryant until Davis makes his expected return from the injured list Friday and shows that he is healthy.  A pair of injuries to Davis’ left hand has limited him to only 14 games this season.

It isn’t a surprise that the Mets (or any contender) would be checking in on Bryant, considering his potential value as a difference-maker for a team in October.  Bryant has rebounded from an injury-plagued 2020 to hit .271/.353/.502 with 16 homers over 329 plate appearances this season, with the caveat that most of that production came within the first two months.  Since June 1, Bryant has only a .568 OPS and four home runs in 117 PA, and his Statcast numbers are solid overall but middling when it comes to hard contact numbers.

With free agency looming this winter, Bryant has plenty of incentive to step up big over the remainder of the season and put himself in good position for a big free agent contract.  Given the trade speculation that has swirled around Bryant for over two years now, it wouldn’t really be surprising to see him take off at the plate if/when he finally did get dealt.

The Mets’ projected luxury tax number is roughly $13.5MM under the $210MM threshold.  Bryant’s remaining salary (he is owed $19.5MM in 2021) would eat up a big chunk of that remaining space and leave the Mets with little wiggle room to make further additions while staying under the threshold, unless some other contracts were moved to the Cubs or in other trades.  That said, Mets owner Steve Cohen has expressed an openness for crossing the tax threshold in the right circumstances, and would seemingly rather blow by the $210MM figure than only exceed it by a small amount.  If Cohen did authorize such a big go-for-it push, the financial aspect of a Bryant trade might not be an issue for the Mets.

On the field, Bryant obviously brings plenty of value to the NL East leaders.  As Heyman notes, Bryant’s ability to play multiple positions (both corner infield spots and all three outfield spots) adds to his value, particularly for a New York team that hasn’t gotten much production and has been looking to solidify third base.

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

(poll link for app users)

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