Brandon Kintzler To Exercise Player Option
Righty Brandon Kintzler will exercise a player option to remain with the Cubs, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com (via Twitter). That had been the expected outcome for the veteran reliever.
Kintzler’s contract, signed last winter with the Nationals and traded to the Cubs at the 2018 trade deadline, included successive option clauses. The club first had a shot at a $10MM option. If that was declined — as it was, by the Chicago organization — then Kintzler got a chance to take a guaranteed $5MM salary rather than returning to free agency.
Given his struggles down the stretch, it’s no surprise that Kintzler elected to keep the money in hand. In 18 frames over 25 appearances, he coughed up 14 earned runs on 27 hits while managing just a dozen strikeouts against nine walks.
That’s not to say that there isn’t any hope of a rebound. After emerging as a late-inning presence with the Twins, Kintzler had been productive with the Nats. In his 68 2/3 frames in D.C., between the trade deadlines of the 2017 and 2018 campaigns, he worked to a 3.54 ERA. In spite of consistently marginal strikeout numbers, Kintzler’s heavy sinker has typically produced excellent groundball numbers and allowed him to avoid the long ball.
NL Notes: Phillies, Cubs, Marlins
The Phillies have done a good job of avoiding toxic contracts, but they also don’t have much in the way of homegrown stars in the upper levels of the minors, Matt Gelb of the Athletic notes. It seems obvious, then, that the route to improve this offseason is the free agent market, and they have been one of the teams with assumed interest in free agency’s biggest fishes, to wit, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That said, owner John Middleton once balked at a perceived lack of on-field hustle from former Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, which would seem at odds with a willingness to go all-in on Machado, given his growing reputation. Generational talents or not, it’s Middleton’s money, and it’ll ultimately be his decision whether or not Machado and Harper are worth the long-term investment.
- Regardless of what happens with Machado and Harper, the Phillies do not appear inclined to overreach in the secondary market, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, specifically as it pertains to their outfield, where in-house options Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, and Aaron Altherr are comparable-to and cheaper-than the middle class of talent available in free agency. GM Matt Klentak also says the Phillies are unlikely to explore the starting pitching market, despite potential interest in upgrading in that area. They are hypothetically interested in a left-handed starter, but Patrick Corbin, the top name on the market, figures to command more money than the Phillies are willing to spend on him.
- Cole Hamels is open to signing an extension with the Cubs, or at least that’s the impression 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine came away with after speaking with his agent, John Boggs. The Cubs have until Thursday to decide whether to pick up Hamels’ $20MM option for the 2019 season or let the Texas Rangers pay his $6MM buyout. His impressive turnaround with the Cubs (12 starts, 2.36 ERA, 3.59 xFIP) leads many to believe the team option will be exercised, but nothing official has come down from Chicago yet. If the Cubs do pick up the option, they could begin negotiating an extension as early as Friday with the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty. In theory, the Cubs could decline their option and negotiate a new contract with Hamels from there. This is unlikely, however, as the Rangers would be on the hook for the $6MM buyout, and they’d have grounds to file a grievance in that circumstance. However it happens, we should know by Thursday if Hamels will play his 2019 home games at Wrigley Field.
- The Marlins are open to being active in free agency this offseason, albeit for moderately-priced, low-risk veterans, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. With six arbitration cases and only three hefty contracts on the books, the Marlins are better positioned than in recent seasons to bring in some reinforcements from the outside to help build culture and mentor their younger players. One of those arbitration cases, last year’s Opening Day starter Jose Urena, has been rumored to be available via trade, but according to Frisaro he is much more likely to be the Opening Day starter in Miami for the second consecutive season.
Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Smoak, Nunez, Bregman, Padres
The Cubs seem likely to pick up left-hander Cole Hamels‘ $20MM option for 2019, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. The club could instead buy out Hamels for $6MM, a sum his previous team – the Rangers – would cover, though that would be a surprise in the wake of his second-half performance. After the Cubs acquired Hamels in late July, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to Hamels’ excellent results over the final couple months of the season, Cubs president Theo Epstein recently called the 34-year-old a “breath of fresh air.”
Here’s more from Heyman’s latest column:
- Surprisingly, despite his quality production from 2017-18 and his reasonable price tag for next season, the Blue Jays aren’t certain to exercise first baseman Justin Smoak‘s option, according to Heyman. Toronto must decide whether to bring back Smoak for $8MM or cut him loose and pay $250K. But if the team’s uninterested in retaining Smoak, perhaps it’ll pick up the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s option and shop him to first base needy-clubs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at several teams that could pursue a deal for the switch-hitting Smoak, who slashed .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 594 PA this year.
- Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez is “likely” to exercise his $5MM player option, per Heyman. Nunez could otherwise opt out and receive $2MM, but he’d be doing so on the heels of a rough campaign (heroics in Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding). The 31-year-old hit a meek .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 502 regular-season plate appearances and accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR – the sixth-worst mark among those who totaled at least 500 PA. Notably, Nunez had a much better campaign in 2017, but he was still unable to secure a large guarantee as a free agent last winter.
- Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a non-tender candidate, Heyman relays. The oft-injured d’Arnaud is projected to earn $3.7MM in 2019, his last year of arbitration, but the Mets could deem that too pricey in the wake of another injury-shortened season. D’Arnaud, 29, suffered a partial UCL tear in early April, limiting him to four games. With d’Arnaud unavailable, the Mets ended up relying on Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. There’s also uncertainty with Mesoraco heading into the offseason, given that he’s a pending free agent.
- Astros superstar Alex Bregman is among those sticking with agent Brodie Scoffield, who recently left Legacy to start Tidal Sports Group, Heyman writes. The 24-year-old third baseman is coming off a tremendous season in which he hit .284/394/.532 (157 wRC+) with 31 home runs, more walks (96) than strikeouts (85) and 7.6 fWAR across 705 trips to the plate. Bregman’s in line to play his final pre-arb season in 2019.
- Some manager-needy teams recently requested interviews with Padres executive Moises Alou, but the 52-year-old spurned those overtures, Heyman reports. Alou, a big league outfielder from 1990-2008, joined San Diego’s front office in 2015. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, though it does run in his family. His father, Felipe Alou, managed the Expos (1992-2001) and Giants (2003-06) to a combined 1,033-1,021 record, and he took home NL Manager of the Year honors during the strike-shortened ’94 season.
NL Central Notes: Murphy, Brewers, Reds
While Daniel Murphy was largely viewed as a rental when the Cubs acquired him, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein hasn’t closed the door on retaining the veteran infielder, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. “I wouldn’t rule anything out,” said Epstein. “He did a lot to right our offense right after he got here and contribute while being asked to play a bigger role than we envisioned when we got him because of injuries and because of a lack of performance offensively and because of the schedule.” Murphy stumbled out of the gates in 2018 upon returning to the from offseason knee surgery, but he hit .322/.358/.502 from July through season’s end — including a .297/.329/.471 slash after the Nats traded him to the Cubs. Addison Russell‘s suspension has clouded the Cubs’ middle-infield picture, though Murphy’s defense at second base has graded out terribly over the past two seasons, which the Cubs will have to consider.
It seems plausible that some clubs will prefer Murphy as a first baseman rather than a second baseman, though the Cubs have Anthony Rizzo locked in at first, so they’d have to be convinced he can play second base on a fairly regular basis.
Here’s more from the division …
- New Reds skipper David Bell discussed his approach to the position, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. He acknowledges being relatively new to the application of analytics to the field, but says he has “gone through a process the last five years of asking a lot of questions, understanding the information, understanding how to utilize it and how to factor it into all decisions.” That experience will surely help Bell in his current role, in which he says he’ll be open to incorporating all manner of information. Indeed, he indicated that he finds it “a very exciting time in baseball” with whole new approaches to deploying rosters percolating around the game.
- The Brewers undeniably had a successful 2018 campaign, but it occurred despite of the struggles of righty Chase Anderson, who inked a short-term extension at the end of the prior season. As Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports, Anderson wrapped up the current year saying he has plans to get back on track for 2019. GM David Stearns, meanwhile, says the organization expects the same. Anderson, who’ll soon turn 31, did finish with a solid 3.93 ERA in 158 innings. But ERA estimators including FIP (5.22), xFIP (4.79), and SIERA (4.68) were not impressed, and Anderson failed to sustain the slight but notable velocity bump from the season prior.
Official Super Two Cutoff
This year’s cutoff for players to achieve Super Two status, and thus be eligible for arbitration a year early, has been set at two years and 134 days of Major League service time (written as 2.134), tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.
In order to reach Super Two status, a player must be in the top 22 percent of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service (in terms of total service time) and must have spent 86 days of the preceding season on a Major League roster or disabled list. That designation allows those players to reach arbitration eligibility a year early and go through arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three.
Not only does this increase players’ earning power in the ensuing season, but it also has a substantial impact on their earnings years down the line, as arbitration salaries are built upon the prior year’s earnings. By getting to arbitration early, players jump-start their earning potential a full year sooner than most of their peers. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that the current single-season salary record holder for an arbitration-eligible player, Josh Donaldson, reached Super Two status early in his career ($23MM). Nor is it surprising that Nolan Arenado, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to break that record this offseason, was also a Super Two player. Swartz projects Arenado to take home a whopping $26.1MM salary in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.
Here’s how this year’s 2.134 cutoff compares to recent years:
- 2017: 2.123
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
This year’s cutoff is the highest in a half decade, leaving a handful of players ever so slightly on the outside of the bubble. Among them are the Mariners’ Edwin Diaz (2.121), the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs (2.123), the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes (2.124), the Rays’ Mallex Smith (2.125), the Nationals’ Justin Miller (2.128), the Rangers’ Matt Bush (2.132) and the Reds’ Scott Schebler (2.132).
Conversely, there are a few players who ever so narrowly squeaked into Super Two status under the wire. Chief among them is Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, who exemplifies the benefit of reaching Super Two status. Had Turner accrued even two fewer days of big league service than the 2.135 years he presently has, he’d have been in line for a six-figure salary not far north of the Major League minimum. Instead, he’s projected by Swartz to earn nearly 10 times that amount — a salary of $5.3MM. He’ll get a raise based on that starting point in 2020 and continue earning raises through the 2022 season, after which he’ll be a free agent.
Beyond Turner, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd just barely surpassed the cutoff at 2.136 and is projected at an even $3MM. Cubs righty Carl Edwards Jr. and Braves lefty Jacob Lindgren each landed at 2.134 on the dot, making both arbitration-eligible this winter as well. Edwards is projected to earn $1.4MM, while Lindgren projects at $600K due to the fact that he missed the 2018 season recovering from surgery and did not throw a pitch.
NL Notes: Cubs, McGwire, Nationals
By renovating the historic Fenway Park in 2002, Boston augmented their baseball ops department with the quickening revenue streams from an improved stadium experience – a strategy Theo Epstein brought with him to Chicago, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Additionally, both Fenway Park and Wrigley Field, under Epstein’s leadership, have benefited from in-stadium advertising along the outfield walls – much like your local little league field. In Boston, the seats added above the Green Monster came complete with the ad billboards above. In Chicago, the bleachers were devoid of ad content until 2010 when a 360-foot Toyota sign was installed over the left field bleachers. Baseball purists may balk at these eyesores becoming a focal point of such historic stadiums, but the financial welfare afforded both franchises by these towering facades have produced previously-unmatched eras of on-field success. Lest we forget, Wrigley Field was called Weeghman Park until it was acquired by the chewing gum tycoon, so while it’s not as obvious a money grab as southside rival Guaranteed Rate Field, the Cubs’ northside stadium has long been financially-inspired – Epstein’s major contribution is making these influxes of cash obvious on the field.
Now, some coaching updates around the National League…
- Mark McGwire won’t be returning as the Padres bench coach for 2019, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. McGwire is reportedly stepping down to spend more time with his family after two seasons as the bench coach in San Diego. Big Mac had previously spent three seasons apiece as hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers. For the Padres, they will seek to avoid an extended search to fill their three coaching vacancies for 2019 (bench coach, hitting coach, and infield coach).
- In other coaching news, the Washington Nationals will not be making any changes to their coaching staff prior to 2019, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Manager Dave Martinez returns for the second year of a three-year deal, hoping for a turnaround after a disappointing first year in Washington. Bench coach Chip Hale, hitting coach Kevin Long, and pitching coach Derek Lilliquist will return to buttress Martinez in the Washington dugout. Rounding out the coaching crew: former infielder Tim Bogar returns to the first base coaching box, Greg Maddux’s former personal catcher Henry Blanco returns to coach in the bullpen and longtime third base coach Bob Henley returns in his usual role.
Rangers Hire Shiraz Rehman As Assistant GM
The Rangers have officially struck a deal to hire Shiraz Rehman to an assistant general manager post. The Cubs Insider blog reported the news late last night.
Rehman had been with the Cubs for seven seasons, the last five of those coming in an AGM capacity. Most recently, he was tabbed to head up the Chicago organization’s “strategic initiatives.” When he received that assignment before the current season, Rehman was said to be charged with “evaluating existing systems, and recognizing and applying solutions in an effort to create competitive advantages for the organization.”
Rehman will be occupying a “similar role” in Texas, but he’ll do so in a kitchen with somewhat fewer cooks. Presently, the organization lists three assistant GMs underneath general manager Jon Daniels: Josh Boyd (professional scouting, R&D, & pacific rim operations), Mike Daly (major league operation & international scouting), and Jayce Tingler (player development), with Tingler widely expected to take a uniformed role in 2019. Rehman had also been one of three AGMs in Chicago. But that department is headed by both executive VP/GM Jed Hoyer and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, with senior VP Jason McLeod also a noted senior decisionmaker.
It seems reasonable to presume that, even if his title won’t change much, Rehman will be moving into a somewhat loftier spot on the totem pole with his new organization. Indeed, the club’s announcement provides that he’ll “assist President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Jon Daniels in the day-to-day management of Major League operations of the baseball department, including player acquisitions, roster management, player contracts, and salary arbitration.”
Cubs Name Anthony Iapoce Hitting Coach
The Cubs have hired hitting coach Anthony Iapoce away from the Rangers to fill the same role in their own organization, the team announced Monday. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram had reported just before the formal announcement that Iapoce had already informed the Rangers of his decision to take the Cubs’ offer. Iapoce has been serving as the Rangers’ hitting coach since the end of the 2015 season, when Texas hired him away from the Cubs organization. Chicago dismissed 2018 hitting coach Chili Davis last week after just one year in the organization.
A former minor league outfielder who had an 11-year professional career, the Rangers were Iapoce’s first big league coaching assignment, although the 45-year-old had previously worked in the Cubs’ player development department, where he oversaw their minor league hitting program and served as a special assistant to GM Jed Hoyer and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein. He’s also previously worked as a minor league hitting coordinator with the Blue Jays.
With the Cubs, Iapoce will be tasked with helping to revitalize an offense that, as Epstein put it, “broke somewhere along the lines” in a late-season slump that extended into the National League Wild Card game. Given his past experience with the club, Iapoce will already have some degree of rapport with Epstein, Hoyer and manager Joe Maddon, all of whom were in the organization along with Iapoce back in 2015.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are already looking for a new manager and were already in search of a new assistant hitting coach after letting go of Justin Mashore. As Wilson notes, Texas GM Jon Daniels had already given the rest of his coaching staff freedom to pursue other opportunities after telling them that their 2019 fates would not be determined until the Rangers name a new manager. Texas will now be assured of further turnover in the dugout as the organization looks to piece together a developmentally-focused field staff to work with an expected youth movement.
Central Notes: Kluber, Greene, Cubs
Indians ace Corey Kluber has earned $3.5MM of a possible $4MM in contract escalators, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (via Twitter). All that remains is an all-but-certain top-10 finish in this year’s Cy Young award voting to raise Kluber’s salary in 2019 from $13MM to the full $17MM. His contract options in 2020 and 2021 will increase to $17.5MM and $18MM respectively. Despite a disappointing loss to Justin Verlander and the Astros in the ALDS, Kluber put together another stellar campaign in 2018. He won twenty games for the first time, going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA in 215 innings. Kluber’s run of dominance began in his age-28 season, and he’s been one of baseball’s true number-one starters in the five years since (2.84 FIP, 152 ERA+ over that time). He more than earned his pay raise, but it does make an already-tight financial situation even tighter for Cleveland this offseason as they try to fill holes in their lineup and rebuild their bullpen around July acquisition Brad Hand.
Some notes from the Senior Circuit’s central division…
- Encouraging news for Reds fans from Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer, as 2017 number two overall pick Hunter Greene rehabs his elbow at the Reds’ Spring Training complex in Arizona. Greene sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow – and though injuries to this ligament often result in Tommy John surgery – Greene elected the non-surgical route and is progressing as planned. Before ending his season in July, the 6’4″ right-hander was 3-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 18 starts at Class-A Dayton. Advanced metrics paint a more impressive picture for the 19-year-old flamethrower — 11.72 K/9, 3.29 FIP, 3.13 xFIP. Greene hopes to get back to hitting triple digits when he resumes throwing in December or January.
- Cubs players seemed unclear in exit interviews about the organization’s hitting philosophy. Theo Epstein, Joe Maddon and whoever replaces Chili Davis as Maddon’s hitting coach will strive for greater harmony in organizational messaging about their offensive strategy moving forward, but the track record isn’t great writes the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney as he reviews Chicago’s hitting coaches since 2013 – a list that will be one name longer by Opening Day 2019. Current Phillies hitting coach John Mallee survived the longest, a three-year stretch that included the 2016 World Series and ended after the 2017 season. Some names Mooney suggests the Cubs could consider include current assistant hitting coach Andy Haines, former assistant hitting coach Eric Hinske (who worked under Mallee for three seasons) and former special assistant in player development Anthony Iapoce, who spent last season as the Rangers’ hitting coach.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs reached the playoffs in four consecutive years. However, a loss to the Rockies in the Wild Card game left a bitter taste in the Cubs’ mouths and the front office must make significant additions to the offense and bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jason Heyward, OF: $106MM through 2023 (may opt out of contract)
- Jon Lester, SP: $47.5MM through 2020. Includes mutual/vesting option for 2021.
- Yu Darvish, SP: $101MM through 2023
- Ben Zobrist, INF/OF: $12MM through 2019
- Tyler Chatwood, SP/RP: $25.5MM through 2020
- Brandon Morrow,RP: $12MM through 2019. Includes vesting option for 2020.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $13MM through 2019. Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
- Steve Cishek, RP: $7.5MM through 2019
- Brian Duensing, RP: $3.5MM through 2019
- Drew Smyly, SP: $7MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Kris Bryant, 3B – $12.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks, SP – $7.6MM
- Javier Baez, INF – $7.1MM
- Addison Russell, SS – $4.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber, OF – $3.1MM
- Mike Montgomery, SP/RP – $3.0MM
- Carl Edwards Jr., RP – $1.4MM
- Tommy La Stella, INF – $1.2MM
Contract Options
- Cole Hamels, SP: $20MM club option. Rangers pay $6MM buyout if declined.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Pedro Strop, RP: $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
- Brandon Kintzler, RP: $10MM club option or $5MM player option
Free Agents
[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]
“Our offense broke somewhere along the lines,” stated Cubs president Theo Epstein the day after his team was bounced from the playoffs following a five-hour slog against the Rockies. The Cubs didn’t even expect to be in that Wild Card game, but they lost a tiebreaker game to a surging Brewers club. Before we attempt to guess at how Epstein might go about fixing the offense, let’s take a look at which players are locked in.
Willson Contreras will continue to handle primary catching duties. Contreras, 27 in May, had an argument to be considered the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the period stretching from his June 2016 debut until this year’s trade deadline. Then, from August 2nd onward, he hit .169/.263/.232 with one home run in 160 plate appearances. He went from regularly serving as the Cubs’ #4 or 5 hitter to hitting seventh or eighth most days. Contreras’ collapse is one damning data point for now-former Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis. Getting Contreras back to his established 120 wRC+ level would be a big boost to the 2019 offense. Contreras caught a career-high 1109 2/3 innings in 2018 and would likely benefit from a quality veteran backup. After a strong season in which he made 83 starts for the Braves, free agent Kurt Suzuki might not accept a diminished role, but he’s the type of player the Cubs should target.
The team’s other big in-house offensive project is getting Kris Bryant right. Bryant, 27 in January, had his first real setback as a pro player this year but still managed a 125 wRC+. That’s disappointing only because he’d set his level at 144 over his first three Major League seasons, winning the NL MVP in 2016. Bryant injured his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in late May and was never the same since. He was limited to just 102 games this year. Fortunately, Epstein does not expect surgery for Bryant, and in fact expects a “monster” 2019 out of him. Given Bryant’s stature and potential, I wonder if manager Joe Maddon would be better served locking him in at third base, rather than sprinkling in time at the outfield corners as he has done to date. Healthy, bounceback seasons from Bryant and Contreras are crucial to the Cubs’ 2019 offense.
Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs’ rock at first base and remains among the best hitters in the game at his position. Ben Zobrist bounced back to show he’s actually not done as a hitter at age 37, and he’s an option for slightly less than full-time duty at some combination of second base and the outfield corners again. Javier Baez catapulted himself into the NL MVP discussion with a five-win age-25 season. Baez fits well at any infield position. He maxed out his offensive abilities in 2018 by mashing 83 extra-base hits, making up for his perennially low walk rate. The Cubs are also locked into near-regular playing time for Jason Heyward, because of his strong outfield defense as well as the large amount of money left on his contract. Heyward continued to improve as a hitter in his third year as a Cub, but that still resulted in a low-power league average batting line. The positional flexibility of Heyward, Baez, Zobrist, and others will allow the Cubs to explore both of the major prizes of the 2018-19 free agent market.
Those prizes, of course, are superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Both free agents project to top the current largest contract in baseball history, Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325MM deal. MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM. Can the Cubs afford to add the largest contract in baseball history to their ledger? With a new TV deal on the horizon after 2019, the answer appears to be yes. Given arbitration raises, the Cubs will come in around last year’s Opening Day payroll before any new players are added, so I do expect the club to jump past $200MM for the first time. The Cubs successfully reset with a payroll under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018, reducing the tax penalty for ’19 if they exceed the new $206MM threshold. Last March, I debated the true necessity of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees to reset, but all three have done it and enter the 2018-19 offseason ready to spend.
Epstein has gone big game hunting many times for both the Cubs and Red Sox, and figures to be firmly in the mix for Harper or Machado. Which player is the better fit? My vote is for Harper, who has a higher offensive ceiling than Machado and as a left-handed batter breaks up the Cubs’ core of right-handed hitters (Bryant, Baez, and Contreras). Cubs fans can salivate at the prospect of a Murderer’s Row of Bryant, Harper, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras. Harper would take over as the team’s regular right fielder, pushing Heyward to center and possibly a young outfielder off the roster, which we’ll discuss later.
The possibility the Cubs prefer Machado should not be discounted. Fans can also dream on a Machado-Baez middle infield combination, although Baez may actually be the superior shortstop. Signing Machado seems to create an inefficiency – pushing Baez back to second, or pushing Bryant to left field. That is, unless Machado is willing to sign under the same conditions most current Cubs position players have, where all but Rizzo, Contreras, and Albert Almora bounce around to multiple positions. I think the Cubs are better-served with Harper in right field and a Heyward-Almora platoon in center.
Almora might be wasted on the short side of a platoon, however, and the Cubs will likely consider trading him under certain scenarios. Likewise, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ face the possibility of a trade, particularly if the Cubs acquire a starting outfielder. Schwarber, 26 in March, quieted the talk of his left field defense as a liability. However, he proved powerless against left-handed pitching and was limited to seeing southpaws only 18% of the time under Maddon. There could be another gear for Schwarber if he starts hitting lefties, but as always, Maddon is reluctant to give him that full opportunity on a contending club.
Happ, a 24-year-old switch-hitter, played all three outfield positions and third base this year. Strikeouts were up and power was down in his sophomore season, and he too was unable to hit lefties. Though he’s technically more versatile than Schwarber, Happ seems position-less. He spent more time in center field than any other position (403 2/3 innings) despite being the team’s third-best center fielder. The Cubs limited his time in the infield this year. Schwarber is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three more seasons; Happ remains near the league minimum and is controlled for five more seasons. It’s simpler retaining Schwarber: keep him in left field, try to unlock his power against left-handed pitching, and he might yet become a middle of the order hitter. Trading Happ is risky, though, given the five remaining years of team control.
Harper and Machado are certainly not the Cubs’ only options for outside additions. They’re just the best ones. Free agent bats like Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Yasmani Grandal don’t clearly make the Cubs better or fit onto their roster. The trade market doesn’t appear to boast a superstar, either, unless you think the Cubs could pry Nolan Arenado loose from the Rockies for his final year before free agency.
Cubs shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy based on claims from his ex-wife, and he will be ineligible to play until May 3rd next year. Asked if Russell will return to the Cubs next year, Epstein replied, “I don’t know. With all of our words and actions going forward, whether we know it or not, we’re sending messages to our fans.” The Cubs don’t have the moral high ground when it comes to domestic violence, having traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2016 about ten months after that pitcher’s incident. In this case, which unlike that one is post-“Me Too,” the PR move probably coincides with the baseball move, and most expect the Cubs to let Russell go. We’ll likely learn next month whether Russell is too toxic to trade to another team, but I would guess not.
Moving on, let’s discuss the Cubs’ starting rotation. Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana are locked in. Yu Darvish’s first year was a disaster, with the pitcher making only eight MLB starts due to a parainfluenza virus, triceps tendinitis/inflammation, a shoulder impingement, and a stress reaction in his elbow. He had seemingly minor elbow surgery in September and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Given his salary and past success, Darvish will have a spot in the Cubs’ rotation whenever he’s ready. The Cubs also have Drew Smyly under contract. Smyly, a 29-year-old southpaw, underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017 and signed a two-year deal with the Cubs last December. He’ll be 18 months removed from the procedure when pitchers and catchers report in February and could be an asset given his past success with the Tigers and Rays.
While the Cubs will be cautiously optimistic on Darvish and Smyly for 2019, there is no such optimism for Tyler Chatwood. The Cubs gave Chatwood a three-year, $38MM deal last December based mostly on upside, and the righty’s already-poor control became the worst in baseball in 2018. In fact, Chatwood’s 19.6% walk rate was the fifth-worst in baseball history for pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs’ 2018 season served as a reminder how much every win counts, and I can’t see how Chatwood would have a role on the 2019 Cubs. Russell Martin could make for an excellent bad contract swap from the Cubs’ side, though not so much from Toronto’s. Alex Gordon, Zack Cozart, Homer Bailey, and Martin Prado could be other potential targets in my estimation.
Though the Cubs also have Mike Montgomery as a back-end rotation depth option, there’s more than enough uncertainty to justify picking up Cole Hamels’ $20MM option. Hamels, 35 in December, was excellent in a dozen starts for the Cubs after a July trade from Texas. The Cubs could also attempt to negotiate a two-year deal with Hamels at a lower average annual value.
Aside from the offense, the Cubs’ other big problem is a lack of bullpen depth. In a world where teams are giving half their innings to relievers in the playoffs, the Cubs would have had a difficult time making a sustained postseason run even if they had beaten the Rockies. Brandon Morrow’s season ended on July 15th due to biceps inflammation, even though the injury was initially thought to be on the minor side. Given the 34-year-old’s extensive injury history, this couldn’t have been a shock for the Cubs. Morrow was excellent when he was healthy, and he’ll be delicately deployed in the late innings in 2019. The Cubs have Steve Cishek under contract and will pick up their option on Pedro Strop, making for a decent right-handed trio. Beyond that, I expect multiple external additions and a good amount of turnover. The Cubs do control Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr., and Randy Rosario. They have Duensing under contract after a terrible year, and should expect Brandon Kintzler to pick up his $5MM player option after his rough stint on the North Side.
Edwards is a tantalizing, frustrating talent, and the Cubs have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a reliable late inning option for them. From the left side, the Cubs can do better than Montgomery, Rosario, and Duensing. The club will have to be prepared to release Duensing and/or Kintzler if those veterans fail to impress in Spring Training. Bottom line: it’s time to turn over at least half the bullpen. I don’t expect the Cubs to make a run at Craig Kimbrel, but the free agent market still offers a long list of options, including Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Zach Britton, and a pair of rehabbing former closers (Kelvin Herrera & Trevor Rosenthal). One veteran worth retaining is Jesse Chavez, who ascended to the top of the Cubs’ decimated bullpen by year’s end and reportedly wants to return.
The Cubs also have a bit of managerial drama, with Joe Maddon entering lame duck status in 2019. Epstein said all the right things about Maddon after the season, but there’s still a feeling that Maddon’s tenure in Chicago is nearing an end. My guess is that short of a 2019 World Championship, Maddon departs after the season.
Though most MLBTR readers graded the Cubs’ 2017-18 offseason an A or a B at the time, the first year results of those deals were quite poor. The stakes might be higher this time around. Now that expectations are sky-high, this year’s early playoff exit must be considered a disappointment. The money involved could be bigger than ever and Epstein will be making decisions that have a large impact on whether his team can pull off another World Championship inside the three years of control remaining for Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez.