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NL Central Notes: Epstein, Brewers, Oh, Nicasio

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An extension for Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is “just a matter of time,” team owner Tom Ricketts told reporters, including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times at a charity event on Wednesday. “We talk all the time, and it comes up,” Ricketts explained, adding that he is “on the same page” with Epstein in that regard. Epstein, of course, is entering the final season of his five-year contract with the Cubs, though given the manner in which Chicago has returned to prominence in the NL Central and the team’s very positive long-term outlook, it’d come as a surprise if the two sides didn’t work out a new contract.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Brewers GM David Stearns wouldn’t disclose whether he will continue the “file and trial” approach to arbitration that the Brewers have employed in recent years, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. For those unfamiliar, “file and trial” teams cease negotiating one-year deals with players once arbitration figures are exchanged — which will happen this Friday. While some file-and-trial clubs will continue negotiating multi-year deals after arb figures are exchanged, such teams will head to a hearing if no multi-year deal talks are in the works. The Brewers have three arbitration-eligible players — Wily Peralta, Jean Segura and Will Smith. Stearns said he didn’t expect any updates on the trio’s contract status until closer to the exchange deadline.
  • Seung-hwan Oh told reporters in Korea, including Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency, that he got the impression all throughout negotiations with the Cardinals that the team felt it needed him, and he’s happy with the deal he received. Oh apologized to his Korean fans for some legal troubles that he incurred which resulted in a 72-game suspension from the KBO, though his actions wouldn’t have warranted any consequences in the United States. Oh was suspended for gambling at an overseas casino in Japan (not on baseball), which is against the KBO’s rules. He’d be forced to miss a half season if he returned to Korea’s top league, though he spoke like a man who doesn’t intend to do so in the near future, saying he hoped to reach the World Series and wouldn’t be satisfied with an ERA over 3.00. Instead, Oh said, he hopes to keep that number closer to 2.00 — a threshold with which he is familiar after a stellar career in both Korea and Japan. Oh said he doesn’t plan to add a new pitch but might rely more heavily on his split-finger. He’s also looking forward to a potential showdown with countryman and new division rival Jung Ho Kang, who was 4-for-13 with a homer off Oh in Korea, per Yoo.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters, including Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, that right-hander Juan Nicasio will be stretched out in Spring Training so that he may serve as depth in a number of roles (Twitter link). Depending on how Nicasio fares, he could be used as rotation depth, a long man or in middle relief, according to Biertempfel. Nicasio was a bit wild but had generally strong results out of the L.A. bullpen last season, working to a 3.86 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.

Latest On Rays’ Pitching

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With many — but not all — of the top free agent arms now gone from the market, the Rays appear to be ramping up discussions involving their pitchers. Tampa Bay has long been said to be willing to listen on its array of starters and late-inning relievers, though it hasn’t made any deals since shipping Nate Karns to the Mariners to kick off the winter’s activities.

Here’s the latest:

  • The Rays are engaged in “’many’ active trade conversations” involving pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday on Twitter. It seems as if the club’s previous talks, which appeared to have some steam during the Winter Meetings, have been re-joined now that the market has gained additional clarity.
  • Indeed, Tampa Bay has “picked up the pace” on discussions, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The team is still holding conversations involving top relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger as well as various starters. The one name that clearly is not in play is staff ace Chris Archer.
  • The Cubs have remained in “constant contact” with the Rays, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (audio link). It’s previously been suggested that Chicago could have interest in Alex Cobb, but Bowden hints that Jake Odorizzi could make a nice fit for Chicago in a deal. The hang-up, though, is that the Cubs are trying to swing a deal without giving up Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, or other major league pieces.

Cubs Sign Jesus Guzman To Minors Contract

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The Cubs signed first baseman/outfielder Jesus Guzman to a minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports (via Twitter).  Guzman spent 2015 with the Hiroshima Carp, hitting .230/.336/.420 over 116 plate appearances in NPB.

The 31-year-old owns an impressive .856 career OPS in the minors (3835 PA) and his first extended taste of Major League action saw him deliver an .847 OPS over 271 PA with the Padres in 2011.  Guzman’s numbers tailed off after that initial season, however, and he managed only a .188/.272/.248 line in 184 PA with Houston in 2014 before electing free agency and signing with Hiroshima.

As you’d expect for a right-handed hitter, Guzman has performed much better against lefty pitching than righty pitching over his career, with a .746 OPS against southpaws against only a .670 OPS against righties.  With a strong Spring Training, Guzman could find a place for himself on Chicago’s roster, backing up Anthony Rizzo at first or perhaps even finding a platoon spot in left field.  Kyle Schwarber and Chris Coghlan (both left-handed hitters) and the switch-hitting Ben Zobrist are slated for left field, though the bulk of Zobrist’s playing time will be at second base.

Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna

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With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:

  • The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
  • Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir’s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
  • Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
  • Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
  • Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis’ tank. The Mets’ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
  • Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
  • Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.

Quick Hits: Mets, Epstein, Giants, Padres

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The Mets want a reliever, but they’ll patiently wait for one to fall into their lap, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. Antonio Bastardo and Tyler Clippard are both options, but GM Sandy Alderson doesn’t want to go beyond a one-year contract for either. Bastardo is asking for three-years while Clippard’s demands are unknown. Alderson has a history of finding relievers during Spring Training, and the club does possess decent, if unproven, depth at the position.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • Preliminary contract extension talks have occurred between the Cubs and President Theo Epstein, tweets 670 The Score. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts says the two sides are “generally on the same page,” with regards to the talks. Epstein is entering the final season of a five-year, $18.5MM deal signed in 2011.
  • Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Grant Brisbee of SB Nation analyzed the Giants’ offseason to date. He figures the additions of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Denard Span over Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Chris Heston, and Nori Aoki add up to eight wins on paper. Brisbee uses 2016 projections for the newly added Giants and compares them to the actual 2015 performance of the outgoing players. The upgrades cost a bundle of money, putting to rest complaints that the front office is stingy.
  • There is a feeling the Padres may be nearing an end to their shortstop search, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The club has used 18 shortstops since 2009, and their best prospects at the position are at least two years away. Free agents Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez have been most closely tied to the Padres. Desmond is coming off an ill-timed down season, and he has a history of suspect defense. When asked about what he wants from a shortstop, GM A.J. Preller said “I think in an ideal world, you want someone who is an intelligent player, a leader and captain of your infield, the ability to make the plays on the move, on the run, up the middle, in the hole. Someone, when the ball is hit to him late in the game, it’s an out.” While that may not sound like a taut fit for Desmond, Ramirez also had a choppy defensive season in 2015. While Brock doesn’t mention him, I wonder if the Padres might not be looking at Jimmy Rollins. He’s arguably the most sure-handed of the bunch.

Free Agent Notes: Rodney, Fowler, Davis

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Here are the latest free agent rumors:

  • The Diamondbacks have not been in contact with free agent reliever Fernando Rodney, writes Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com. A previous report had tied Rodney to the DBacks, Padres, Blue Jays, and Cubs. Since then, we’ve also learned the Padres are out. Presumably, Toronto’s interest ceased when they acquired Drew Storen from the Nationals. After a late-season renaissance with the Cubs, Rodney should still garner plenty of interest as teams nail down the final components of their bullpen. Meanwhile, Arizona may opt to rely on their wealth of internal options headlined by Brad Ziegler and Daniel Hudson.
  • Dexter Fowler’s market has been slow to develop, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. The center fielder is coming off his best season to date, although his OBP declined below his career average. Among contenders, Levine figures that only the Rangers, Mariners, Indians, White Sox, and Cubs are a fit (he also lists the Nationals, but the Ben Revere trade likely nullifies that pick). Both Chicago clubs could benefit from installing Fowler in center field. A reunion with the Cubs would require a trade of right fielder Jorge Soler – probably for high quality pitching – and it would allow Jason Heyward to return to his natural position of right field. Levine also figures that White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is better suited for a corner outfield role.
  • The Orioles have not made any progress in talks with free agent Chris Davis, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore made a seven-year, $150MM offer earlier in the offseason and has seen no reason to submit a higher bid. While agent Scott Boras is selling Davis as an outfield option, Encina views him purely as a first baseman. To this point, no other serious suitors have emerged for Davis. Encina also cites reports that the Orioles are in on pitcher Yovani Gallardo, but those talks may depend on Davis.

Quick Hits: Buehrle, Rodney, Nationals, Rangers, White Sox, Uggla

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Free agent left-hander Mark Buehrle is not planning on playing in 2016 at this time, though the veteran isn’t yet prepared to announce his retirement from baseball, either, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The soon-to-be 37-year-old’s future has been a debated topic in the past, as some reports indicated that he was planning to retire before Buehrle himself told ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla back in October that he’d yet to make a decision on the matter. Another report indicated that if Buehrle were to pitch in 2016, it’d most likely happen if St. Louis showed interest in the Missouri native. Buehrle’s 2015 season wasn’t as strong as his 2014 season, but he nonetheless recorded a solid 3.81 ERA across 198 2/3 innings. That final innings tally left him just four outs shy of recording his remarkable 15th consecutive season of 200+ innings.

A few more notes from around the league…

  • Cotillo also tweets that right-hander Fernando Rodney is in “active talks” with multiple clubs, noting that the Padres, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs are all in the mix at this time. San Diego, Chicago and Toronto have previously been linked to Rodney, though Arizona would seem to represent a fairly new entrant into his market. Rodney had a dreadful season with the Mariners in 2015 but turned it around following a trade to the Cubs, yielding just one earned run in 12 innings with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio down the stretch (Rodney did, however, also plunk three batters in his brief Cubs tenure).
  • We’ve heard about the Nationals’ interest in Gerardo Parra before, and James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that it’s still alive. GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when the club signed Parra, and the Nats also tried to acquire him from the Brewers this summer, Wagner reminds. Wagner notes that Parra’s so-so OBP and declining defensive ratings make him a questionable fit in Washington, but the team’s goal remains adding some outfield depth to protect against injuries to Jayson Werth and uncertainty surrounding the talented but raw Michael A. Taylor. Wagner opines that from a purely speculative standpoint, Shane Victorino makes some sense for the Nationals as a player who can cover the outfield corners and play center in a pinch if need be.
  • Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that Rangers fans shouldn’t expect to see Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Yovani Gallardo in a Rangers uniform next season, as the team doesn’t have the payroll capacity to add any of the three. A trade for Marcell Ozuna is also unlikely, per Wilson, though the Rangers do still hope to add some rotation depth before the offseason is up. GM Jon Daniels tells Wilson that there are still some affordable names on the open market that have piqued the Rangers’ interest. Wilson also notes that Colby Lewis’ physical — the final step before his reported one-year, $6MM contract becomes official — is slated for next Monday.
  • The White Sox aren’t in a rush to add a big-ticket outfielder to the mix, writes MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The Sox “seem content to wait and ensure that any free-agent deal would fit their need and parameters,” he continues, writing that it’s likely that Upton and Cespedes will eventually be offered more years and dollars than the ChiSox care to place on the table.
  • Dan Uggla has spoken to three or four teams that are eyeing infield depth, Cotillo tweets. Uggla is set to turn 36 this March and is coming off a season in which he batted just .183/.298/.300 in 141 plate appearances with the Nationals, so any contract to which he agrees figures to be of the minor league variety.
  • Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic spoke to executives and scouts from each league to ask which NL West division rival has the better pitching staff heading into the 2016 season: the D-backs or the Giants. While the officials to whom Buchanan spoke seemed to agree that, in a vacuum, the D-backs made more impactful acquisitions this offseason (referring to Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller in comparison to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija), when factoring in the cost of said acquisitions, there’s an argument to be made for the Giants’ side of the equation. Buchanan also polled officials on which club’s top three starters were more impressive, adding lefties Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner to the mix, which generated mixed responses.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the high-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but I will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his second year of arbitration coming off a Cy Young Award and is due to get a large raise from his 2015 salary of $3.63MM. Our model technically has him projected to receive $10.9MM next season — a $7.27MM raise — but due to our “Kimbrel Rule,” this has been revised down to $10.4MM. The Kimbrel Rule states that no player can receive a raise more than $1MM larger than the current record raise for a player in his service class. The rule was named after Craig Kimbrel a couple of years ago when his track record entering arbitration so far outdid potential comparables that we did not believe the result the model produced. Given that there are generally limits to the extent by which players break existing arbitration records, we have adjusted the model to reflect this and come up with a number of around $1MM.

Jake Arrieta

Arrieta’s case is a good application of the Kimbrel Rule, considering the fact that no player in recent years has matched Arrieta’s achievements heading into his second year of arbitration eligibility. The only recent player to win a Cy Young in Arrieta’s service class was David Price three years ago, who went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA. Comparatively, Arrieta won a couple of extra games and recorded a far superior ERA: he was 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. Additionally, Arrieta’s 229 innings and 236 strikeouts surpassed Price’s respective totals of 211 and 205 by a significant margin. Price received a $5.76MM raise, so the Kimbrel Rule gives Arrieta projected $6.76MM raise — good for a $10.4MM salary projected for 2016.

Another potential comparable that could come up in a hearing is Felix Hernandez’s 2010 season. Although Hernandez ultimately signed a multi-year deal, he initially exchanged figures with the Mariners after going 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA. The Mariners offered a $3.4MM raise, while he asked for a $7.7MM raise. Since Price ended up roughly between these two numbers three years later and had won a Cy Young, though, it would be tough for the Cubs to argue that the Hernandez case is more applicable than the case of Price. Hernandez did have the lowest ERA of any pitcher entering his second year of arbitration eligibility in recent seasons, however, but even this was nearly three quarters of a run greater than Arrieta’s 1.77 mark.

Although Price did not and Arrieta has not yet, pitchers get multi-year deals in most cases like these. The downside risk of injury for a pitcher usually encourages them to hedge and cash in on their success, and the risk for the team to have to bid against other teams in the free agent market encourages them to cut a deal as well. As a result, it is difficult to find many elite pitchers who go year-to-year in arbitration. Price was the only pitcher in recent years entering his second year of arbitration eligibility as a 20-game winner, in addition to being the only Cy Young winner. However, Arrieta’s far superior ERA makes Price a weak potential comparable, certainly more of a floor than a ceiling.

If Arrieta does not sign a multi-year deal, he is likely to set a record for second-year arbitration-eligible raises for starting pitchers that will set the baseline going forward. Where he lands will be an excellent test of the Kimbrel Rule, since he perfectly fits the example of pitchers who outperformed their service class in recent years on all arbitration-relevant statistics.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Baez, Baker, Prospects, Market

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Barring a late-breaking move as the ball drops, this’ll be the last post of 2015 on MLBTR. Thanks for another great year! Be sure to join us bright and early tomorrow for a new one that will start with an arguably unprecedented slate of unsigned free agents.

Here are a few stray notes from around baseball:

  • In a piece for Baseball America, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explores the question whether Javier Baez can turn into a Ben Zobrist-esque player for the Cubs. Baez has been getting a look in the outfield this spring, as has previously been reported. “It just adds to his versatility,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said. “He’s someone who always enjoyed taking fly balls during batting practice out in center field shagging, and he’s always looked really good doing so.” Of course, Chicago will enjoy Zobrist regardless, since it just signed the genuine article this winter
  • The Cubs have hired former backstop John Baker as a baseball operations assistant, as Wittenmyer also notes. The veteran wrapped up his seven-year MLB career in Chicago with a 68-game run in 2014. MLBTR wishes him the best of luck in his new gig.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists his ten breakout prospects for the coming year. Among the interesting names to watch is Jake Bauers, a little-known piece of last year’s blockbuster three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to the Padres and netted the Rays Steven Souza. The rising youngster could make that deal sting even more for San Diego than it has already. Likewise, pitchers Josh Hader of the Brewers (added in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers deadline swap), Frances Martes of the Astros (who came from the Marlins in the deal that sent Jarred Cosart to Miami), and Cody Reed of the Reds (a part of the Johnny Cueto flip this past summer) could change the calculus of the transactions that brought them to their current organizations, in the estimation of Callis.
  • ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden provides his breakdown of the single most important missing piece for every team in the league in an Insider piece. Looking down his list, it’s notable how many clubs he cites as needing a corner outfielder. That market figures to explode at some point early in 2016.

NL Notes: Dews, Nationals, Desmond, Baez, Reds

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The Braves organization suffered a difficult loss over the weekend, as long-time coach, advisor, and instructor Bobby Dews passed away at 76 years of age. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman explains how deeply embedded he was in the team’s fabric, even as he spent less time around the ballclub in recent years. We join all those around the league in tipping our cap to Dews and offering our condolences to his family and friends.

A few notes from the National League …

  • Following the Nationals’ reported agreement with Stephen Drew on a one-year deal, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down what the club’s bench could look like. As Janes notes, the addition of Drew will give first-year Nationals manager Dusty Baker four left-handed bats on the bench (Jose Lobaton, Clint Robinson and Matt den Dekker being the others, as things stand). His versatility, as well as the versatility of fellow newcomer Daniel Murphy (who can also handle third base, first base and, in a pinch, left field) gives Baker plenty of options to mix and match. A significant addition may or may not be coming, Janes writes, noting that the pursuit of top free agents such as Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist at least indicates that the club has money to spend. However, even if the team doesn’t land an additional center field option, the much-needed addition of some left-handed options in recent weeks has brightened the 2016 outlook.
  • Former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond has long been rumored to be dabbling in the idea of signing as a Zobrist-esque super-utility player, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants could be a fit for him in such a role. Desmond could be the regular left fielder, even see time in center, and function as a reserve or injury replacement in the infield, Olney reasons.
  • Speaking of converting infielders to the outfield grass, Cubs youngster Javier Baez has seen time in center field in the Puerto Rican winter league, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat noted recently. It doesn’t seem that the organization is looking to press him into regular duty there, at least at present, but would at least like to have the option of deploying him in the outfield on occasion.
  • The Reds’ two Rule 5 picks have a solid chance of sticking with the club, C. Trent Rosecrans writes for Baseball America. Outfielder Jake Cave (from the Yankees) makes for a good fit because he hits from the left side, assistant GM Nick Krall tells Rosecrans. And Krall adds that southpaw Chris O’Grady (via the Angels) has shown an ability to retire batters on both sides of the box, with good command helping to make up for average stuff.
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