Tom Gorzelanny’s Trade Value
Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi have each suggested that clubs could attempt to acquire Tom Gorzelanny from the Cubs. GM Jim Hendry is not shopping the left-hander now, but the Cubs won't have room for Gorzelanny as a starter if Carlos Zambrano pitches well in his return to the rotation tonight.
As long as Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Silva remain healthy, the rotation is set without Gorzelanny. You could make the argument that he is one of the team's top five starters, but he's in the 'pen for now after allowing five earned runs in two of his last three starts.
If the Cubs consider trading Gorzelanny, who turns 28 next month, they should be able to obtain a significant piece or two for him. Despite the pair of rough starts that preceded his move to the bullpen, Gorzelanny has been an improved pitcher since arriving in Chicago last July.
Gorzelanny is striking out more batters (9.3 K/9 vs. 5.9 K/9 with Pittsburgh) and walking fewer batters (3.3 BB/9 vs. 4.1 BB/9 with Pittsburgh) since joining the Cubs. Those improved ratios, and Gorzelanny's 3.66 ERA would compare well with any available starting pitcher this side of Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
But there's an important difference between Gorzelanny and other trade candidates like Lee, Oswalt, Kevin Millwood and Jake Westbrook. Every one of those starters earns at least ten times as much as the $800K Gorzelanny makes in 2010. That could give the Cubs more potential trade partners, since not every team can afford the salary of a veteran starter. And not only is Gorzelanny cheap, he doesn't hit free agency until after 2013. Unlike most starters we'll hear about in trade rumors, he's controllable and affordable.
Even though there's been lots of talk about Gorzelanny, there hasn't been a concrete rumor indicating that he's available. That may mean the Cubs keep Gorzelanny, but Hendry should be able to obtain good prospects or major league pieces in a trade if the Cubs decide to move him.
Odds & Ends: Sizemore, Lewis, Red Sox, Haren
Some links for Friday before Roy Halladay tries to restore order for the slumping Phillies…
- Grady Sizemore will miss the rest of the season as he recovers from today's operation on his left knee, according to the team. He is expected to be ready for spring training next year.
- Rogers Sportsnet reported last weekend that the Blue Jays finalized their Fred Lewis acquisition for cash, according to John Lott of the National Post.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Yankees will likely seek a bat with a high on base percentage and wonders if David DeJesus could fit (Twitter link).
- Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe speculates that Mike Lowell and Boof Bonser could be trade bait.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com says it's a "long shot" that the D'Backs deal Dan Haren.
- Cuban player Yadil Mujica could sign soon, according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald (Twitter link).
- Ebro reports (via Twitter) that the Phillies are eyeing Dominican pitcher Yunesky Maya.
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun presents 12 possible replacements for Dave Trembley, including Eric Wedge, Bobby Valentine and Bob Melvin.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says firing Dave Trembley won't be enough for the Orioles. He says the club needs to hire a "high-profile, kick-ass manager."
- David Ortiz told John Tomase of the Boston Herald that he "definitely" hopes to see Lowell traded, since it would be "a wonderful thing" for Lowell's sake.
- As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports, the Red Sox have more high picks than usual this year, partly because Type A free agents Jason Bay and Billy Wagner signed elsewhere last winter.
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer wouldn't give up more than one 'B' prospect to acquire Derrek Lee if he were running the Angels.
- Freddy Sanchez, who will play in Pittsburgh for the first time since the Pirates traded him last summer, tells Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he loved playing in Pittsburgh and can't wait to return.
Stark On Orioles, Lee, Padres, Stanton, Angels
Major league executives told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark which starters they would most want to have for the next ten years. Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum didn't make the cut, but Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, David Price, Brett Anderson and Jon Lester did. Here are Stark's latest rumors, as the trade market starts taking shape:
- Two teams say that the Orioles would listen on Kevin Millwood right now.
- A rival executive says the Orioles are "sniffing around for a shortstop." Stark hears rumors that they have interest in Twins prospect Trevor Plouffe.
- The Mariners won't seriously consider trading Cliff Lee before they're sure they can't salvage their season.
- There's increasing pessimism that the Astros will be able to obtain salary relief and prospects for Roy Oswalt.
- Teams are giving up on acquiring Adrian Gonzalez this summer, since the Padres continue to win.
- Two officials believe Heath Bell could be traded even if the Padres stay in contention. Check out this post from earlier in the week for more on Bell's trade value.
- Tom Gorzelanny could be on the market in a couple weeks when John Grabow comes off the DL.
- Stark hears that the Marlins will call Mike Stanton up next week. The Marlins are being cautious, since they want to prevent Stanton from obtaining super two status and teams believe the cut-off will be later than ever this year.
- Stark's sources don't expect the Angels to start searching for a bat to replace Kendry Morales for a few weeks. When they begin looking for offense, they're expected to look for someone who is about to hit free agency or a versatile player who can defend around the diamond. Kendry Morales is under team control through 2013, so Prince Fielder wouldn't be a fit for the Angels.
Cubs Haven’t Begun Serious Trade Talks
Whether or not the Angels want to acquire a Cubs bat may not matter just yet. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that there has been very little trade talk recently for the 24-29 Cubs. That could change, but GM Jim Hendry says he’s still waiting for his team to get hot.
''If we get it going and have a couple of good weeks, we can [get back in it],” Hendry said. “We've done that before. We need to do it now.''
It’s not clear whether the Angels are interested in Derrek Lee, but the first baseman obviously doesn’t want to talk about it. Lee declined to answer questions about his no-trade clause.
As Wittenmyer notes, Lee, Xavier Nady and Ted Lilly are free agents after the season and the resurgent Carlos Silva could appeal to teams looking at starters. For now, though, trade talks have yet to pick up.
2006 Draft Throwdown
There is little that is more dismaying than looking back at old draft lists, with the benefit of hindsight, and seeing which players your favorite team missed out on while settling for players who either failed to make much of an impact, or who never even reached the major leagues. Think Reggie Jackson and Steve Chilcott, Robin Yount and David Clyde, Dwight Gooden and Bryan Oelkers. Often, this is driven less by player talent, and more by positional need.
But even more fascinating is to look at some recent draft picks and some of their immediate counterparts, to see how teams fared picking players, one over another, who played the same position. In other words, straight-up scouting choices led to these decisions. Let's take a look at how those worked out in 2006.
- LHP Andrew Miller (Tigers) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): This one is more complicated than it might seem at first. Clearly, Miller, drafted sixth overall, has not been nearly as effective as Kershaw, drafted seventh overall. Miller has a 5.50 ERA in 261 2/3 major league innings, and is currently having trouble throwing strikes in the minor leagues, with an astonishing 30 walks in 28 innings. Kershaw has a 3.28 ERA in 342 major league innings, and shows signs of being a good deal better than that moving forward. But Miller isn't with the Tigers; Detroit dealt him in the move that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. Still, advantage has to go to Kershaw on this one, and the Dodgers as well.
- RHP Tim Lincecum (Giants) vs. Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks): Is this one about to turn? Obviously, as of this date, Lincecum, drafted tenth, has worked out as well as one could hope any draft pick could, while Scherzer, drafted eleventh, is still a work-in-progress who has already been traded once. But Lincecum has had uncharacteristic struggles with his control lately, even though his season ERA (3.14) and strikeout rate (10.4/9 innings) are not far off of his career marks. And Scherzer is coming off of a 14-strikeout performance, though four walks meant that he did so in just 5 2/3 innings. For now, though, a big edge to Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
- OF Tyler Colvin (Cubs) vs. Travis Snider (Blue Jays): Based on 2010 season line alone, this battle of the lefty-hitting outfielders would have to go to Colvin, drafted thirteenth, over Snider, drafted fourteenth. After all, Colvin has an OPS of .991 in 83 plate appearances this season, while Snider's stands at .806. But overall, it seems clear that the Blue Jays did better here. Snider came out of high school, while Colvin was a collegiate player. Yet Snider posted significantly better offensive numbers than Colvin as each player climbed their respective system ladders- a .916 to .785 edge in minor league OPS. Snider was holding down a regular job at age 22 before he hit the DL, while Colvin is struggling for a regular spot as his 25th birthday approaches. This one is debatable, but the smart money gives Toronto and Snider the edge.
Odds & Ends: Angels, Willis, Oswalt, Jones
Memorial Day linkage, as Ubaldo Jimenez continues to amaze…
- T.J. Simers of the LA Times offers a profile of refreshingly down-to-earth Angels owner Arte Moreno.
- Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune explains the dilemma the White Sox will face when they have the chance to select Ozney Guillen on draft day.
- Ryan Zimmerman would like to see the Nationals acquire Roy Oswalt, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
- A scout told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that he would be interested in Adam Jones if the Orioles considered trading him, despite the young outfielder's 2010 struggles.
- MLBTR is looking for an intern with strong Excel skills and a willingness to contribute for 30 minutes a day. If you are interested in this unpaid data entry position, send a short e-mail to mlbtrintern@gmail.com by the end of the day.
- We will be giving away a DVD of the movie Sugar to our 30,000th Twitter follower (currently 584 followers away). Sugar chronicles a Dominican pitcher trying to make it to the Majors.
- The Cubs announced the promotion of 2008 first-round pick Andrew Cashner. The big righty will work out of the bullpen. Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle notes that several years ago, Cashner offered the Astros a hometown discount and they declined.
- The Pirates benched second baseman Akinori Iwamura in favor of Neil Walker, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Iwamura, the team's highest-paid player, was an out-of-character acquisition for GM Neal Huntington. At the time of the trade there had been talk about an extension, but we have to assume that idea has been tabled.
- Dontrelle Willis' agent Matt Sosnick spoke to MLB.com's Jason Beck, saying his client could benefit from a fresh start despite a fair chance with the Tigers.
- Rany Jazayerli says Dayton Moore is not the worst GM in baseball, and it is too early to judge his organizational rebuilding effort.
- With one week left, AOL FanHouse's Frankie Piliere has his third first-round mock draft. ESPN's Keith Law also posted a mock draft, for those who have Insider.
- Heath Bell explained to Bill Center and Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune why he still has hostility toward the Mets.
Rosenthal On Cardinals, Silva, Yankees
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his latest column by noting that the Angels' problems extend beyond the loss of first baseman Kendry Morales. On the business side, I wonder how Morales' abbreviated 2010 will affect his first-time arbitration payday after the season. A few other hot stove notes from Rosenthal…
- Rosenthal would not be surprised to see the Cardinals add a starting pitcher. They've got payroll flexibility but a reluctance to move more prospects. In my opinion, that points toward an acquisition of someone like Jake Westbrook.
- Carlos Silva has surpassed all expectations, and you have to credit Cubs GM Jim Hendry for saving money and getting a useful player for Milton Bradley. Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said to Rosenthal, "We didn't see any flashes of him doing what he's doing now. It just didn't feel like it was going to work here."
- Rosenthal finds it likely that the Yankees will attempt to acquire a bat as well as bullpen help.
- Could Phillies first base prospect Jonathan Singleton become trade bait? Rosenthal spoke to one scout who raved about Singleton, who the Phillies drafted out of high school in the eighth round last year. Singleton, ranked 20th among Phils prospects heading into the season by Baseball America, is off to a strong start in Low A.
Dempster Deferred Salary To Give Cubs Flexibility
8:50pm: Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago reports that Dempster's salary deferral actually came this past offseason, allowing the Cubs to sign Xavier Nady. Rosenthal confirms the report, via Twitter. A bit of a disappointment for Cubs fans who were hoping the team would be able to to use those savings to make a trade this summer.
4:05pm: Ryan Dempster will defer $3MM of his $12.5MM salary this year at little or no interest to give the Cubs the flexibility to make moves, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Dempster will receive $1MM of the deferred money by February 2011, $1MM by February 2012 and the final $1MM by February 2013. The rest of his contract is unchanged, so Dempster will still make $13.5MM in 2011 and retain his $14MM player option for 2012.
The 33-year-old Canadian has a 3.31 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 this season. The Cubs need Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee to start hitting like they usually do, but they will now be better-prepared to address smaller needs when they emerge. Scott Rolen restructured his deal in the winter, and he got an extension out of it. The best Dempster can hope for is an improved chance at postseason play.
Odds & Ends: Burrell, Choo, White Sox, Hanley
Links for Friday, as the streaking Mets visit the Brewers…
- Tom Verducci of SI.com asked agent Scott Boras how he'd re-structure the draft and heard some interesting answers. Boras would limit the number of high schoolers selected.
- Jim Callis of Baseball America has the Pirates taking Manny Machado second overall and the Orioles taking Jameson Taillon third in his latest mock draft.
- If Pat Burrell signs a minor league deal with the Giants, he would be able to opt out after about two weeks, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
- Indians GM Mark Shapiro tells Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that he isn't worried about losing Shin-Soo Choo, though Choo may have to serve in the South Korean military.
- Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald wonders how a Carlos Quentin for Kosuke Fukudome swap would work out for Chicago's two teams.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro hears that no team contacted the Marlins about a Hanley Ramirez trade after the shortstop's run-in with manager Fredi Gonzalez (Twitter link).
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says the D'Backs appear to be leaning towards pitching with their sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney has heard that Ozzie Guillen and White Sox GM Kenny Williams do not have a good relationship at this point.
- GM Alex Anthopoulos explains to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star that the Blue Jays might consider adding pieces later in the summer, depending on the cost.
Teams That Could Take On Payroll This Summer
The ability to absorb a few million dollars at the trade deadline is a pretty powerful bargaining chip. Teams never mind shedding salary, but you won't find many clubs willing to take it on. Some teams always have the financial might to absorb a contract or two; others can take on payroll under the right circumstances and some are sitting tight no matter what.
To predict which teams will be able to take on payroll this trade deadline, MLBTR looked to recent history and the latest rumors. Here are the results:
- Yankees – It's hard to imagine a team with an Opening Day payroll of $213MM letting a few more million stand between them and a deal this summer.
- Cubs – Same goes for the Cubs, who opened the season with a $144MM payroll. It's the team's first summer under new ownership.
- Red Sox – Not only are they big spenders ($168MM Opening Day payroll), they are aggressive at the deadline. Last year, the club added Victor Martinez, Alex Gonzalez and Casey Kotchman.
- Nationals – The Nats could have the financial might to take on Roy Oswalt's entire contract, if you believe one of the officials ESPN.com's Jayson Stark spoke to. They also have to budget for the bonus their number one pick will demand. We're talking many millions no matter what, but possible selection Bryce Harper could demand an eight-figure deal.
- Dodgers – An official told Stark that he can imagine the Dodgers taking on $5MM or so. GM Ned Colletti said earlier this week that he could add payroll in the right deal, in spite of the McCourt divorce.
- Angels – The Angels have some money, according to Stark's sources.
- Giants – Adding Pat Burrell at the major league minimum wouldn't exactly constitute "buying," but the Giants operate under a relatively big budget.
- Rays – They are expected to lower payroll in 2011, so they don't seem like a logical candidate to add salary, but they have been creative and aggressive at the deadline in recent years, discussing deals for the likes of Jason Bay and Victor Martinez.
- Reds – The Reds have financial flexibility and a willingness to get creative, according to one of Ken Rosenthal's sources.
- Phillies – They're staying in touch with Pedro Martinez, which presumably means they have at least a million or two to work with. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has said he'll be reluctant to give up prospects, but it's not hard to imagine the Phillies taking on payroll.
- Cardinals – The Cardinals were big spenders at last year's deadline, acquiring Mark DeRosa and then Matt Holliday. They may look for starters this year, which could cost them a few million, even though ESPN.com's Buster Olney expects a buyer's market.
- Blue Jays – Team president Paul Beeston is "all about winning" in the words of GM Alex Anthopoulos (via the Toronto Star). It will be a balancing act between short-term needs and long-term goals, but the Jays could spend if they're in contention.
- Some teams that don't appear on this list will likely become spenders this summer, but these are at least some of the clubs that could take on salary in the right deal.