Cubs Moving Drew Smyly Back To Bullpen
The Cubs are kicking left-hander Drew Smyly back into relief, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this evening (relayed by Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Smyly had been set to oppose lefty Bailey Falter for Sunday’s series finale in Pittsburgh; the Cubs’ starter for that game is now listed as to be announced.
It’s a moderate surprise, as Smyly was generally expected to hold onto a rotation spot after Marcus Stroman’s recent injury setback. The Cubs had used Smyly three times in relief last week but gave him the start on Tuesday in Detroit. That outing didn’t go well — the Tigers saddled him with a loss by plating seven runs in 3 2/3 innings — and the Cubs have decided to return him to a relief role.
Smyly had worked a scoreless inning in each of the aforementioned three bullpen appearances. That’s far too small a sample on which to draw any conclusions, particularly given a generally weak slate of opponents (Blue Jays, White Sox and Royals). Moving him to long relief allows manager David Ross to deploy Smyly in lower-leverage situations than he’d have taken on as a starter.
It’s certainly not the result the Cubs envisioned when re-signing the veteran southpaw last offseason. Smyly had turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 frames a season ago. The Cubs guaranteed him $19MM over two years on a deal that also allows him to opt out at the end of this season. Smyly hasn’t come close to replicating last season’s run prevention, allowing 5.28 earned runs per nine across 124 1/3 innings.
On the one hand, the front office likely anticipated some amount of regression. Smyly had a below-average 20.4% strikeout rate a season ago, leading to estimators like SIERA (4.06) and FIP (4.23) that were above his actual ERA. They certainly wouldn’t have anticipated his ERA jumping by almost two runs, though. Smyly’s 21.2% strikeout percentage is actually a touch better than last season’s, but his walks are up slightly and he has had a very tough time keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed 1.81 homers per nine, the seventh-highest rate among pitchers with 100+ frames.
The Cubs are through seven days in a stretch of 13 consecutive game days. The quartet of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad comprises the rotation. Chicago will have to find another solution for Sunday. They could try to patch things together with a bullpen game, though that’d run the risk of straining the pitching staff in advance of a crucial three-game series against the Brewers that begins the following day. Righty Hayden Wesneski is on the MLB roster and has starting experience; he struggled out of the rotation early in the year and has been working 2-3 inning relief stints of late.
If Chicago wanted to look to the minor leagues, they could go outside the 40-man roster. Prospect Ben Brown has been on the Triple-A injured list for three weeks. The Cubs optioned righty Caleb Kilian back to Iowa on August 15. Pitchers must spend at least 15 days on an optional stint before they can be recalled unless they’re brought back in conjunction with an IL transaction. The only way the Cubs could turn to Kilian by Sunday is if they place someone else on the shelf.
2021 first-round pick Jordan Wicks and former Marlins righty Nick Neidert are among the non-roster players starting games for Iowa. Chicago would have to select either player’s contract but has a pair of openings on the 40-man roster to accommodate a move if they so choose.
Brewers, Cubs Among Teams To Discuss Pete Alonso With Mets Before Deadline
The Mets’ retool was one of the defining stories of the trade deadline. While it became clear in the weeks approaching August 1 that rentals like Tommy Pham and David Robertson would be on the move, New York’s course of action with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander remained a mystery until the weekend before the deadline.
In the wake of trading the future Hall of Famers to AL West rivals, Mets’ brass indicated they were prepared to take a step back in 2024 while focusing on the longer-term future. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed his hope the club will be competitive next year but forecast a quieter offseason than the franchise has had in the past two winters.
The club’s less certain intentions for ’24 have raised some questions about Pete Alonso’s future. The three-time All-Star has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Even if the Mets aren’t rebuilding, there’s an argument for them to pick a clear direction regarding Alonso — either by trading him to a clearer contender or working to get an extension wrapped up.
[Related: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?]
Last week, the New York Post’s Mike Puma wrote the Mets had floated Alonso’s name in trade talks prior to the deadline. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic shines some light on those discussions, reporting that the Brewers and Cubs were among the teams in contact with New York brass. Rosenthal suggests talks between the Mets and Milwaukee had more traction than conversations with the Cubs, though it isn’t clear how close New York got to a deal with any team.
Asked about Rosenthal’s report following the Mets’ loss in Atlanta tonight, Alonso reiterated to reporters that he “(loves) being a Met (and) representing the city of New York” (via Tim Healey of Newsday). The star slugger unsurprisingly didn’t provide specifics about the chances of an extension, noting he “(doesn’t) know what the future holds.”
If the Mets were to seriously consider moving him next offseason, Alonso would quite likely be the best hitter on the trade market. He’s one homer away from reaching 40 for the third time in his four 162-game seasons (and was on a similar pace during the shortened schedule). Alonso’s .224 average and .325 on-base percentage are narrowly career-low marks, though it’s possible his rate production was deflated by injury.
He sprained his left wrist on a hit-by-pitch in June, an injury that was initially expected to cost him three or four weeks. Instead, Alonso returned within 10 days. He hit just .155/.277/.366 between his return and the All-Star Break. Since the Midsummer Classic, he has a characteristically excellent .262/.359/.623 batting line.
Alonso is playing this season on a $14.5MM salary. That figure could push north of $20MM for his final arbitration season. That’s a notable sum but still below market value for an impact bat of Alonso’s ilk. The one year of remaining control would likely prevent the Mets from recouping a Top 50-caliber prospect in a trade, but there’d still be plenty of interest around the league.
Last winter, the Blue Jays shipped Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners before his final arbitration season. Hernández was a bit cheaper than Alonso will be — he eventually lost his hearing and is making $14MM — but wasn’t quite as good a hitter. Over the three seasons preceding the trade, Hernández hit .283/.333/.519. Alonso owns a .256/.341/.523 line going back to 2021 while playing his home games at a more pitcher-friendly environment.
It stands to reason the Mets would look to top the Jays’ return for Hernández. Seattle sent three seasons of club control over an above-average reliever (Erik Swanson) and a minor league pitcher (Adam Macko) whom Baseball America ranked the #10 prospect in the Toronto system after the trade. If another team acquires Alonso over the offseason, they’d be able to make a qualifying offer the following winter to partially backfill some of the prospect value they surrendered.
Each of Milwaukee and Chicago could check back in with the Mets about Alonso’s availability, though they certainly wouldn’t be the only teams with interest. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana to man first base down the stretch. He’s an impending free agent, while Rowdy Tellez seems likely to be non-tendered.
The Cubs have used Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario — both of whom are impending free agents — at first base since the deadline. They already parted ways with Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini earlier in the year. Prospect Matt Mervis is having an excellent season in Triple-A but scuffled in a 25-game MLB debut this summer. Even if the Cubs consider Mervis a likely everyday player going into ’24, they could certainly kick him over to designated hitter to accommodate a player of Alonso’s caliber.
Cubs Release Tucker Barnhart
Aug. 21: Barnhart has now been released, tweets Sullivan. He’s a free agent and can sign with any team.
Aug. 19: The Cubs have informed reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, that catcher Tucker Barnhart has been designated for assignment. Infielder Miles Mastrobuoni has been recalled in a corresponding move.
Barnhart, 32, was signed in the offseason to a two-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee. It was a sensible addition for the Cubs at the time, given their uncertainty behind the plate. Willson Contreras had that position locked down for many years but reached free agency after 2022 and signed with the Cardinals. The Cubs still had Yan Gomes, but he was coming off a down year and entering his age-35 season. Miguel Amaya was a notable prospect on the 40-man roster, but he had missed significant development time thanks to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery, having not yet reached Triple-A by the end of 2022.
Bringing in another catcher to improve the depth was an obvious move and Barnhart was a logical choice as an experienced veteran. He debuted in 2014 and played with the Reds through 2021, then spent one season with the Tigers. He hit .245/.320/.360 in that time for a wRC+ of 80, indicating he was 20% below league average at the plate overall, but catchers often hit a bit less than average in general. He paired that with solid defense, having racked up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and winning a pair of Gold Gloves. On Statcast’s catcher blocking leaderboard, Barnhart was ranked the best backstop in the league from 2018 to 2022, and also earned good grades for his work with the running game.
Unfortunately, the results at the plate haven’t been there for Barnhart this year. He’s hit just .202/.285/.257 for a wRC+ of 53, striking out in 34.1% of his appearances, easily the worst such mark of his career. That’s coincided with a bounceback season from Gomes and a strong debut from Amaya. The former is hitting .269/.310/.433 for a 98 wRC+ with the latter at .245/.368/.383 and a 113 wRC+. The club has had all three backstops on the active roster for over two months now but Barnhart has been squeezed out of playing time, only getting two plate appearances since August 1. It seems the club would rather use that roster spot to add some extra infield depth, bringing up Mastrobuoni today.
With the trade deadline now passed, the Cubs will have to put Barnhart on waivers in the coming days. He would surely go unclaimed, given his recent struggles and his contract. His deal came with even salaries of $3.25MM this year and next, along with the ability to opt-out after the first season. There’s still roughly $770K left to be paid out this year and the full amount next year. Once he passes through waivers, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, with the Cubs remaining on the hook for that money. Any other club could then sign him for the prorated league minimum with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay.
Going forward, the Cubs will stick with the duo of Gomes and Amaya. The latter just debuted this season and still has years of club control remaining. Gomes is in the final guaranteed season of his contract but the Cubs have a $6MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Perhaps the departure of Barnhart makes it more likely they pick up that option and keep Gomes for one more year, though they could always find another complement for Amaya in the offseason.
Poll: Who’s Going To Win The NL Central?
With the Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing season taking them out of contention early, the NL Central has been thrown wide open in 2023. Even the Pirates looked like they might have a breakout in them after an impressive 19-9 start in April, though their subsequent struggles have shown that the Bucs aren’t yet out of the rebuilding woods.
That has left three teams still in the mix, as the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs enter Sunday’s action battling for not only the NL Central title, but playoff berths of any sort via the wild card. Milwaukee holds a three-game lead in the division, while the Cubs are just narrowly ahead of Cincinnati by percentage points, which also puts Chicago into the final NL wild card slot.
In something of a topsy-turvy year in the division, the Brewers have been the constant. Milwaukee has spent the entire season either in first place, or no more than two games behind the NLC lead. This success has come despite a middling Pythagorean record — the Brewers have outscored opponents by just a single run, yet have a 67-57 record. With tiebreakers possibly looming as a factor, the Brewers have already won the season series with the Reds (with a dominant 10-3 record) and have a 4-3 edge in games against the Cubs.
As per usual, the Brew Crew has leaned on their pitching to win games, even their usually strong rotation has been more good than great in 2023. A number of injuries have impacted the pitching mix, most notably a shoulder strain for Brandon Woodruff that cost the former All-Star about four months of action. Milwaukee’s best pitching performances have come at the back of the bullpen, as closer Devin Williams and setup man Joel Payamps have been arguably baseball’s best one-two endgame combination. This ability to hold close leads has been the main factor in the Brewers’ 25-11 record in one-run games, though that kind of anomalous success might hint at some regression.
While Milwaukee’s pitching has helped prop up a lackluster offense, the Reds have something of the opposite problem. The emergence of Cincinnati’s core of top prospects has been one of the top stories of the 2023 season, as rookies Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Will Benson have all helped carry the Reds out of a rebuild and to a 64-60 record. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have also made their MLB debuts to add to this position player core, not to mention the contributions of Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and the ageless Joey Votto.
With a 29-35 record on June 9, the Reds suddenly shot into relevance and contention with a 12-game winning streak, and they’ve stayed afloat ever since, despite a rough 1-8 start to the month of August. Beyond the question of how the rookies can hold up under pennant race pressure, Cincinnati’s bigger issue is a lack of pitching, as Reds starters rank in the bottom three in the league in both ERA and WHIP. The returns of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Ben Lively from the injured list are being counted on to boost the rotation, as the Reds didn’t acquire any starting pitching at the trade deadline.
Just a month ago, the idea of the Cubs competing for the NL Central title would’ve seemed inconceivable, as the Wrigleyville nine had a 43-50 record. Just when it looked like Chicago might be one of the key sellers at the trade deadline, however, the team caught fire. The Cubs went 18-6 over 24 games between July 18 and August 12, finishing second in baseball in runs (160), RBI (151), average (.291), slugging percentage (.508) and wRC+ (135) in that stretch. Cody Bellinger‘s huge run at the plate fueled a lot of that offensive eruption, but unheralded minor league signing Mike Tauchman wasn’t far behind Bellinger’s numbers. The late success turned the Cubs into deadline buyers, and after coming back to Chicago in a deal with the Nationals, Jeimer Candelario has also been on fire.
Chicago’s rotation has been solid overall, yet it took a big hit with the news that Marcus Stroman will miss the next several weeks recovering from a rib cartilage fracture. Losing one of their two best starters for an extended period (and maybe even the rest of the season) will test the Cubs’ starting depth, and the lineup might have to keep carrying the load to keep the team in the race.
With apologies to the Cardinals and Pirates, we’re going to assume that a miraculous late-season surge isn’t coming, so we’re going to limit the poll choices to the top three contenders. Who do you think will finish atop the NL Central standings? (Link to poll for app users)
Who will win the NL Central?
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Brewers 54% (5,757)
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Cubs 34% (3,597)
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Reds 12% (1,236)
Total votes: 10,590
The Cubs’ Breakout Closer
Adbert Alzolay wasn’t a high-profile prospect at the start of his professional career. The right-hander signed out of Venezuela in 2013 when he was 17 years old, earning a bonus of just $10K. He starting climbing the minor league ladder without getting much attention from prospect evaluators.
That changed in 2017, when he tossed 114 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A. He posted a 2.99 earned run average that year, striking out 23.3% of opponents against a walk rate of just 7.3%. Suddenly, he was the club’s #2 prospect at both FanGraphs and Baseball America going into 2018. He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2017 to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
But his ascent was about to hit some snags. In 2018, a lat strain forced him to be shut down in June. He was only able to make eight Double-A starts that year, tossing 39 2/3 innings. The next year, he missed some time due to biceps inflammation and also started to be bounced between the majors and minors. He was recalled three times that year, tossing 12 1/3 big league innings with a 7.30 ERA. In 2020, the minor leagues were cancelled by the pandemic, though Alzolay posted a solid 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in the majors.
After a few seasons interrupted by injury, roster shuffling and the pandemic, Alzolay finally got some clear runway to establish himself in 2021. Injuries were still a factor, as he made trips to the IL due to a right middle finger blister and left hamstring strain, but he was able to make 21 starts in the big leagues. Unfortunately, he wasn’t especially impressive in those, with a 5.16 ERA. His 24.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 44.9% ground ball rate were all fairly solid, but his ERA was inflated by the 24 home runs he allowed.
Going into 2022, Alzolay seemed likely to get another shot at the rotation. The Cubs were still in rebuild mode and figured to give young pitchers a chance to earn rotation spots. If Alzolay could limit the homers, the overall results would have been strong, as evidenced by his 4.02 SIERA in 2021. But he was diagnosed with a shoulder strain in March and was placed on the 60-day injured list before the season even began.
He didn’t start a rehab assignment until August and wouldn’t make his 2022 season debut until September 17. He pitched in relief down the stretch, making six appearances with a 3.38 ERA. He spoke to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic about his new role in October, expressing an openness to slot in anywhere that he could. “If my role is best out of the bullpen, being a long guy, being a guy that can throw in the eighth or close a game or whatever, I feel like I have the weapons to do that. It’s more versatility for the team and for the manager. You won’t have me every five days there, but you can have me every two or three days. I can go and throw three or four innings, or I can go and throw one inning late in the game.”
He’s been kept exclusively in relief this year and it has been a revelation. In 53 2/3 innings over 47 appearances, he has a 2.52 ERA. He’s striking out 28% of batters faced against a miniscule walk rate of 3.9%, while also keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.1% clip. His rate of fly balls turning into home runs has normalized at 8.2%, fairly close to league average. His 24.2% strikeout-to-walk ratio has him tied for 11th in the majors among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this year. Among those equal to him or better in the K/BB% department, only five of them have a higher ground ball rate. He’s done all that while taking over the closer’s role, having racked up 16 saves and six holds on the year overall.
Last month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the breakout Alzolay’s teammate Mark Leiter Jr., noting that the Cubs have avoided significant spending on their bullpen in recent years. That’s a risky strategy but one that is paying off for them right now. Their team leader in holds, Leiter, was signed on a minor league deal and they now appear to have found their closer internally. Alzolay came into this season with his service time clock at two years and 50 days. He’s crossed the three-year mark here in 2023, meaning he will qualify for arbitration this winter, with the club able to retain him all the way through the 2026 campaign.
It’s possible that he or the club might still have dreams of a returning to starting in the future, but his success this year might tempt everyone involved to keep him where he’s thriving, especially in light of his past injuries. Regardless of where things end up in the future, it’s been a remarkable journey as Alzolay has gone from an unheralded minor leaguer signed for a modest $10K bonus to now being one of the best relievers in the majors this year.
Marcus Stroman To Be Shut Down For Several Weeks
Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman will be totally inactive for at least a few weeks, as the pitcher himself told reporters including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Further details are provided by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.
Stroman landed on the injured list in early August due to right hip inflammation and he was expected to return earlier this week. He experienced some soreness in his rib cage that was eventually diagnosed as a rib cartilage fracture, preventing him from returning as hoped. No details on his timeline were initially provided and the path forward still seems uncertain, but it appears he will have to be focused on healing for at least a few weeks.
The whole ordeal is obviously quite frustrating for Stroman, who says he still doesn’t know how or when the injury occured. He relays that he threw a bullpen when the club was in Toronto on the weekend and felt a bit “crampy” but nothing terribly unusual. He then took part in some infield practice, a normal thing for him, but then had difficulty breathing after a cool-down period. He flew back to Chicago and went straight to an emergency room, where he eventually underwent an MRI that found the fracture.
Honing in on the diagnosis hasn’t helped much yet. “I can’t be too active,” Stroman said. “It’s not like I can do too much right now. I’ve talked to several doctors and I guess the best thing is it has to kind of heal itself. Hopefully a few weeks. I can’t go anywhere. I can barely turn right now. Breathing is tough at some points, to sit for long periods of time is pretty difficult.”
There’s still plenty of unknowns about how things will progress from here, with Stroman saying he’s taking things one day at a time to see how his body reacts, but it’s fair to wonder if his season is now in jeopardy. Even a limited shutdown period of a couple of weeks would take him into September and would likely require a rehab assignment of some kind at that point, when there will only be about a month left on the schedule. Anything that pushes beyond that would tighten his window even further and perhaps increase the amount of rehabbing necessary.
The Cubs are firmly in the mix of the playoff race in the National League, currently just half a game out of a Wild Card spot. Given how cloudy Stroman’s outlook is, they will likely have to operate under the assumption he may not be back this year. They currently have a rotation of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Manager David Ross indicated that Drew Smyly, recently moved to the bullpen, would likely return to the rotation to replace Stroman. Should another injury arise, the club has Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian as depth options.
For Stroman, this continues to dampen a season that was previously on track to be one of the best of his career. Through June 20, his earned run average was a tiny 2.28. He then hit a rough patch, allowing 30 earned runs in his next 30 innings, causing his ERA to jump to 3.85 before he landed on the injured list.
When he was at that high point a couple of months ago, he seemed like a lock to trigger his opt-out this winter, leaving behind the one year and $21MM left on his contract. Even with this injury, he would likely still be able to top that guarantee with another multi-year deal, though his earning power will undoubtedly be diminished relative to where it was in June. If the club is able to make a deep postseason push, that would obviously increase his chances of getting back on the mound, but the likelihood of that won’t be known for a while.
Cubs Claim Edwin Uceta
The Cubs have claimed right-hander Edwin Uceta off waivers from the Mets, reports Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Chicago had a pair of vacancies on its 40-man roster, so a corresponding move wasn’t necessary. Uceta was designated for assignment in New York earlier this week.
The 25-year-old Uceta now joins his fifth organization in the past eight months. He’s bounced from the D-backs, to the Tigers, to the Pirates, to the Mets and now the Cubs since January — all via waiver claim.
Uceta’s overall numbers both in the minors and in the big leagues aren’t particularly impressive, though the frequency with which he’s been claimed on waivers points to the fact that scouts and analysts remain intrigued by his raw potential. He’s tossed three scoreless innings in the big leagues this season but carries an unsightly 5.80 ERA in 40 1/3 total innings between the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Mets.
Things have been better in Triple-A, though his results have hardly been elite there. In 83 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 4.64 ERA and walked 13.4% of his opponents — albeit with a strong 29.6% strikeout rate. Uceta has has long shown an ability to miss bats, and while he doesn’t possess a blistering fastball, he’s averaged between 93-94 mph in the big leagues and shown good ability to spin the ball.
Uceta has missed the bulk of the 2023 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. However, he recently wrapped up a minor league rehab assignment and was reinstated from the 60-day injured list by the Mets. He should be healthy and ready to go with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa. Uceta is in his final minor league option season, so while he can bounce between Triple-A and the Majors for the remainder of the season, he’ll need to be on the big league roster next year or else passed through waivers before he can be sent down.
Cubs, Richard Bleier Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran left-handed reliever Richard Bleier, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Bleier, who was released by the Red Sox last week, is headed to Triple-A Iowa for the time being.
The 36-year-old Bleier went from Miami to Boston this winter in an offseason trade sending Matt Barnes and cash the other way. Both teams involved in the swap hoped that a change of scenery would benefit the two veteran relievers, but it didn’t pan out for either. Bleier was roughed up for a 5.28 ERA in 30 1/3 frames with the Sox and also missed time with a shoulder injury, while Barnes yielded a 5.48 ERA in 21 1/3 innings before requiring season-ending hip surgery.
Looking beyond the current season, Bleier has regularly posted strong ERA marks despite one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. He logged a sub-2.00 ERA in each of his first three big league seasons and a sub-3.00 ERA in two of the next three, so even with this year’s struggles, the soft-tossing southpaw owns a lifetime 3.27 mark in 330 1/3 innings. Bleier, however, averages just 89.2 mph on his fastball and has a career 13.6% strikeout rate. He’s gotten by thanks largely to a spectacular 3.9% walk rate, 60.9% ground-ball rate and consistently low exit velocities. That said, his results have worsened as he’s progressed into his mid-30s.
For the Cubs, there’s no real risk in taking a look at Bleier in Triple-A to see if they can get him back to form. The Red Sox are on the hook for this year’s $3.5MM salary and the $250K buyout on his 2024 club option, meaning Chicago will only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. Because he’s signed before Sept. 1, Bleier would be postseason-eligible for the Cubs, in the event that they reach the playoffs and that Bleier pitches well enough to merit consideration for such a spot. The Cubs don’t presently have a lefty in their bullpen — Drew Smyly is likely headed back to the rotation following Marcus Stroman‘s injury — so if Bleier performs decently in Des Moines there could be a spot for him at the big league level (particularly when rosters expand to 28 players on Sept. 1).
Marcus Stroman Diagnosed With Rib Cartilage Fracture
Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman was supposed to make his return from a hip injury today, but the 32-year-old righty experienced some soreness in his rib cage that caused the Cubs to delay his return. They’ve received unwelcome news after Stroman underwent testing, announcing to reporters that he’s now been diagnosed with a right rib cartilage fracture (Twitter link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). There’s no timetable for his return at this point.
Although the next steps and the timeline for Stroman’s return are uncertain at this point, it’s unquestionably bad news for the Cubs. Stroman’s made 23 starts this year, allowing 3.85 earned runs per nine innings. He was even better earlier in the year, as he had an ERA of just 2.28 through June 20. With the Cubs floundering in the standings at that time, he was often floated as a potential candidate for a deadline trade.
But he then allowed 30 earned runs in his next 30 innings before landing on the injured list in early August due to right hip inflammation. That dip in Stroman’s health and performance coincided with the club getting hot and surging up in the standings. They ultimately held onto trade chips like Stroman and Cody Bellinger, as well as adding new players such as Jeimer Candelario. They are currently 61-58 and just a game out of a Wild Card spot.
They have been getting by without Stroman for a couple of weeks and will have to continue to do so. Four spots in the rotation have been taken by Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon of late. With Stroman’s expected return this week, Drew Smyly was moved to the bullpen, tossing an inning of relief against the Blue Jays on the weekend. It seems he might get another shot at a starting gig, with manager David Ross telling reporters such as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic that Smyly will likely get back in the mix.
Smyly’s season has been fairly similar to Stroman’s, as he had a 3.38 ERA through his start on June 19 but allowed 35 earned runs in his next 35 innings before getting bumped to the ‘pem, inflating his ERA for the year to 5.01. Hayden Wesneski could be another option but he has a 5.51 ERA as a starter this year. They have other options on the 40-man such as Ben Brown or Caleb Kilian, but the former hasn’t made his major league debut and is walking 14.3% of Triple-A hitters this year while the latter has a 12.42 ERA in his limited big league work.
For the time being, it seems there are some moving parts here, with Stroman’s health and Smyly’s performance being two key factors to watch in the weeks to come. For Stroman personally, he’s facing an opt-out decision in the months to come, as he can walk away from the final season of his three-year deal and leave $21MM on the table.
Not too long ago, it seemed like a slam dunk that he would return to the open market, though that’s less certain now. He would likely still be able to top that figure on another deal even with this injury-marred second half, but it’s obviously a lesser platform than if he had stayed healthy and effective into October.
Cody Bellinger’s Resurgent Season
For much of the 2023 season, it’s looked as though the number of impact bats on the upcoming free agent market would be — well… minimal. Shohei Ohtani looms large over both the starting pitching and position player markets, and there’s no real consolation prize for the teams that miss out on him. Matt Chapman has been the top-ranked non-Ohtani position player on the prior installments of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings — a new version of which will be coming out in the coming weeks — but after a blistering start to the season he’s now been a roughly average hitter for the past three-plus months. He’ll still get himself a hefty contract, thanks to the composite above-average offense and plus defense, but he no longer looks like the second-best name among position players this winter.
That distinction likely falls on Cody Bellinger, whose one-year deal with has proven to be a jackpot for both him and the Cubs. The $17.5MM that Chicago guaranteed to Bellinger now looks like an unmitigated bargain by today’s market standards, and Bellinger is in prime position to trounce that this winter, provided he can remain healthy.
That’s far from a given for a player who had shoulder surgery in Nov. 2020 and has been on the injured list four times since — including a month-long absence due to a knee injury earlier this year. But, Bellinger played in all but 10 of the Dodgers’ 384 games from 2018-20 and appeared in 144 games as recently as last season. Outside of that offseason shoulder procedure, most of his injuries have been relatively minor in nature.
What hasn’t been minor is the manner in which Bellinger has rebounded at the plate this season. Bellinger debuted as a 21-year-old back in 2017 and almost immediately established himself as an MVP-caliber talent. From 2017-19, he slashed .278/.368/.559, originally playing plus defense at first base before moving to the outfield in 2019 without missing a beat. Bellinger won NL Rookie of the Year in ’17 and was crowned the league’s MVP two years later — while also winning a Gold Glove in the outfield and a Silver Slugger.
As virtually any fan knows by now, the sky seemed like the limit but clearly was not. Bellinger was an above-average but far from elite hitter during the truncated 2020 season, batting .239/.333/.455 in 243 plate appearances. That good-not-great production continued into the postseason (.212/.316/.455, four home runs), but the bigger story of Bellinger’s playoffs was the aforementioned shoulder. The then-reigning NL MVP clubbed a pivotal home run in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Braves but regrettably dislocated the shoulder while celebrating that blast with teammate Enrique Hernandez. Bellinger went 3-for-22 in the World Series — one of those three hits being another homer — and required surgery a month later.
The next two seasons were a mess. Not only were Bellinger’s days as an MVP candidate a distant memory — it was a legitimately fair question whether he was even a viable big leaguer for much of the 2021-22 seasons. In that time, Bellinger tallied exactly 900 plate appearances and turned in an awful .193/.256/.355 slash line. He still played terrific defense, particularly in 2022, and he popped 19 home runs with 14 stolen bases during the 2022 season. The Dodgers still non-tendered Bellinger, and the Cubs outbid the field with that $17.5MM guarantee — a pricey roll of the dice on a player who’d been 31% worse than league average at the plate in the two prior seasons (by measure of wRC+).
Just as Bellinger’s days as an elite hitter quickly faded from memory in 2021-22, the struggles he endured during those two years now feel like they’re squarely in the rearview mirror. Bellinger had a brief slump when he was first activated from the injured list in mid-June, but he’s been on fire for most of the summer since his return. In 371 trips to the plate entering play Wednesday, the two-time All-Star is hitting .325/.377/.551. He’s belted 18 home runs to go along with 19 doubles, a triple and 17 steals (in 20 tries). He’s posted average or better marks in center field this season and even looked sharp in a brief return to first base (176 innings).
Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Bellinger’s hit tool seems to be back to peak levels. Strikeouts were an issue in his rookie season (26.6%), but Bellinger pared that number all the way down to 16.4% during his MVP year in 2019. Following his surgery, Bellinger’s strikeout rate ballooned back to 27.1% in 2021-22. He also saw a massive spike in his chase rate on pitches off the plate (26.8% in 2019; 34.8% in 2021-22), while his overall contact rate dropped from 78.1% to 74.6%.
This year, Bellinger has punched out in just 15.4% of his plate appearances — the lowest mark of his career by a full percentage point. He’s enjoying career-best contact rates both on pitches in the strike zone (86.3%) and on pitches he chases off the plate (73.8%), leading to a career-high 81.4% overall contact rate.
While the improved contact skills and increased selectivity are unequivocally positive signs, there are some red flags that make Bellinger’s rebound appear a bit more tenuous. When he was at his best, Bellinger was a hard-contact machine, barreling the ball at an elite rate and ranking among the league leaders in batted balls at 95 mph or greater. In 2023, however, Bellinger’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity is nearly four miles per hour slower than his 91.1 mph average from 2019. This year’s 31.2% hard-hit rate is nowhere near his peak 45.6%, and his 6.4% rate of barreled balls (as defined by Statcast) sits at about half his best 12.6%.
That’s not to say Bellinger is a bad hitter or is likely to regress to his dismal 2021-22 levels of performance. His massive gains in contact and subsequent dip in strikeouts lend plenty of legitimacy to his rebound. The greater question is to what extent he can sustain this level of production with a quality-of-contact profile that’s actually below the league averages (89.1 mph exit velocity, 8.1% barrel rate, 39.3% hard-hit rate).
Statcast’s “expected” metrics are far from an exact science, but Bellinger still sits on the second-largest gap of all qualified hitters in terms of his actual batting average (.325) and expected batting average (.271). The gap between his .551 slugging percentage and expected .447 slugging percentage is the fifth-largest in baseball. Some fans may scoff at the mention of “expected” metrics, but they’ll surely factor into teams’ valuation of Bellinger over the winter (though most clubs have their own proprietary versions of such metrics which might differ from Statcast to varying extents). That said, even those expected ratios paint Bellinger as a clearly above-average hitter — roughly in line with what teammates Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have produced this season. And, given Bellinger’s past displays of plus power, there’s quite a bit more upside in his bat than either of those comparisons.
As with any free agent, there are more factors to consider than Bellinger’s bat alone. He’s played first base and center field at above-average levels this season and is obviously an option in either outfield corner as well. Couple that versatility with the fact that he can hit lefties and righties at above-average rates — he’s hitting lefties better in ’23 but has been better against righties in his career — and Bellinger allows any manager some flexibility when writing out a lineup card. This year’s average sprint speed of 28.3 ft/sec is down a bit from his peak 28.9 ft/sec from 2017-19, but it’s still well above the league average (77th percentile). Bellinger uses that speed quite efficiently, too; he’s been successful in 82.2% of his career stolen-base attempts and 85% in 2023.
Perhaps most of all in Bellinger’s case, market scarcity will work in his favor. As previously mentioned, beyond Ohtani, there aren’t many hitters of note to pursue this winter. Chapman’s bat has cooled since his blistering start. Teoscar Hernandez entered the year positioned as one of the top free agents on the market but has batted just .250/.297/.423 — the worst full-season performance of his career. Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez are having strong rebound seasons but are DH-only options. Jeimer Candelario is enjoying a rebound campaign of his own but has nowhere near Bellinger’s track record.
In terms of competition at his position, Bellinger will be going up against oft-injured defensive standouts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Both players are clear alternatives for teams seeking an everyday center fielder, though that’s due more to world-class defense than their offensive aptitude. Neither is as complete a player as Bellinger has been, and Bader has been on the IL three times this year while Kiermaier hasn’t reached 500 plate appearances in a season since 2015 (his only year ever reaching that level).
Perhaps most important of all will be age. Bellinger just turned 28 last month. He won’t turn 29 until next year’s All-Star break. Any team signing Bellinger would be paying up for more of his peak than the usual free agent has to market. Even an eight-year contract would run through Bellinger’s age-35 season. Given his age and the extent of his bounceback this year, it seems likely that he and agent Scott Boras will seek at least one opt-out opportunity in any long-term deal. He’ll surely reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, and while that won’t do his free agency any favors, the QO typically hasn’t been too great an encumbrance on the market’s very top-tier free agents.
No one is going to unseat Ohtani as the most coveted free agent of the upcoming class, but Bellinger increasingly looks like he could be viewed as the next-best position player on the market. His bet on himself has paid off in spades, and as long as he doesn’t completely collapse in the final six-plus weeks of the season, I imagine he’ll hit the market looking to top recent deals signed by George Springer (six years, $150MM), Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Whether someone actually approaches or even exceeds $200MM for a player who struggled so substantially from 2021-22 and has a somewhat spotty batted-ball profile in his rebound season remains to be seen. But the mere fact that it’s even worth considering speaks to the magnitude of his rebound campaign at Wrigley.