Vinny Nittoli Exercises Opt-Out In Cubs Deal
Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has opted out of his minor league deal with the Cubs, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided. He’s not technically a free agent just yet — MLBTR has confirmed that the Cubs have 48 hours to select his contract or grant him his release — but he could formally be back on the market as soon as this weekend.
Nittoli, 32, has just three innings of big league experience — coming between the Mariners and Phillies in 2021-22 — but has been sharp with the Cubs’ Iowa affiliate so far in 2023. Through his first 20 2/3 frames on the season, the journeyman right-hander has notched a 3.48 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 24.4% and 7.8%, respectively. He’s allowed just two home runs on the season (0.87 HR/9). Nittoli struggled in his first two seasons of Triple-A ball, but this is his second strong showing at the level; in 52 innings there last season between the Yankees, Phillies and Blue Jays, he posted a combined 3.81 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.
The Chicago bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the Majors at 4.60. About 18 points of that ERA stem from utilityman Miles Mastrobuoni taking a beating in mop-up duty, but the bullpen as a whole has generally struggled. The Cubs have received strong performances from minor league signee Mark Leiter Jr. and former top prospect Adbert Alzolay, but no other reliever on their roster has pitched at least 10 innings and recorded an ERA south of the recently optioned Keegan Thompson‘s 4.22. Offseason signings of Brad Boxberger (5.52 ERA in 14 2/3 innings) and Michael Fulmer (7.36 ERA in 22 frames) haven’t paid off. Fielding-independent metrics such as FIP (4.05) and SIERA (3.86) feel Cubs relievers are more skilled than their baseline run-prevention numbers would otherwise suggest, but the results haven’t been there yet.
All that said, there’s still a good chance Nittoli will wind up a free agent within the next couple days. Assuming that’s indeed the case, he’ll be able to shop his solid start to the season around to other clubs in need of bullpen help. Teams are always on the hunt for bullpen arms this time of year, so there ought to be several clubs with interest in taking a look at a new arm in that scenario.
June 1 is a popular day for opt-out provisions in contracts, including a collectively bargained opt-out date for Article XX(B) free agents (i.e. free agents with six-plus years of service time who finished the preceding season on a Major League roster/injured list but signed a minor league contract). MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at nine veteran players with known opt-out opportunities last night, and as Nittoli shows, there are surely quite a few more around the league who’ll be making decisions on such clauses today.
Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL Central
We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.
This series kicked off with the NL West last night. Today, we move to the Central.
Chicago Cubs
- Kyle Hendricks: $16MM team option ($1.5MM buyout)
Hendricks has only made two starts this season. The sinkerballer was diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last August. That required a lengthy rehab process that lingered into this month. The former ERA champion hadn’t been nearly as effective in the two years leading up to the shoulder issues as he was over his first seven seasons. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a 4.75 ERA over 274 2/3 innings. Between that back-of-the-rotation production and the injury, the Cubs seem likely to reallocate the $14.5MM difference between the option price and the buyout.
- Yan Gomes: $6MM team option ($1MM buyout)
Gomes signed a two-year guarantee with Chicago going into the 2022 campaign. Initially tabbed to pair with Willson Contreras, he’s gotten the majority of the playing time alongside Tucker Barnhart this season. Gomes struggled to a .235/.260/.365 line in 86 games during his first season on the North Side. He’s playing better this season, hitting six home runs with a .273/.297/.445 batting line over his first 118 trips to the plate. The $5MM decision is a reasonable price for a veteran backstop hitting at that level, even if Gomes is more of a timeshare player than a true regular at this stage of his career.
- Brad Boxberger: $5MM mutual option ($800K buyout)
Boxberger signed with Chicago after being bought out by the Brewers. The righty has had a tough first couple months. He allowed nine runs with a 13:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings. He hit the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain a couple weeks ago. Boxberger is throwing again but figures to miss a decent chunk of action. This is trending towards a Cubs’ buyout.
Cincinnati Reds
- Joey Votto: $20MM team option ($7MM buyout)
Votto is a franchise icon. He’s played his entire 17-season career in Cincinnati and it’s hard to envision him in another uniform. If he’s to stick with the Reds beyond this year, though, it’d almost certainly be at a cheaper price point than the option value. Votto had a below-average .205/.319/.370 batting line last season and hasn’t played this year as he works back from last August’s rotator cuff surgery.
- Wil Myers: $12MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Myers’ first season as a Red hasn’t gone as planned. The offseason signee has started his Cincinnati career with a .189/.257/.283 batting line with three home runs over 141 plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll play well enough this summer the Reds can recoup something in a trade around the deadline. Cincinnati isn’t going to exercise their end of this option short of a massive turnaround, though.
- Curt Casali: $4MM mutual option ($750K buyout)
Casali is part of a three-catcher group in Cincinnati. The veteran backstop has only a .157/.259/.157 line in 60 trips to the plate during his second stint as a Red. The club looks likely to decline their end of the option for the journeyman backstop.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Justin Wilson: $2.5MM team option ($150K buyout)
Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June. The Brewers signed him to a big league deal with an eye towards the second half and potentially the ’24 campaign. He’s on the 60-day injured list. This one’s still to be determined.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Jarlín García: $3.25MM team option (no buyout)
García landed in Pittsburgh after being non-tendered by the Giants last winter. His Bucs’ tenure hasn’t gotten off the ground. He suffered a biceps injury in Spring Training, was shut down from throwing entirely for more than a month, and has spent the year on the 60-day injured list. There’s no public clarity on his status.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Paul DeJong: $12.5MM team option ($2MM buyout)
Six weeks ago, this looked like a no-brainer for the Cardinals to buy out. DeJong’s offensive production had absolutely nosedived since 2020. He hit only .196/.280/.351 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-22. He struggled so badly last season the Cards optioned him to Triple-A for a spell.
The Cards continued to resist calls to move on from DeJong entirely, however. The front office has held out hope he could recapture the productive offensive form he showed through his first few seasons. They’ve been rewarded for their patience to this point in 2023. DeJong has had a surprising resurgence, popping eight home runs in 31 games. His bat has faded a bit in May after a scorching April, but the overall .234/.311/.495 line is 21 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong’s defense has always been above-average, and the offensive bounceback has gotten him back in the starting lineup at shortstop.
DeJong will need to maintain this form over an extended stretch before the Cards get to a point where it’s worthwhile to trigger the option. Tommy Edman and top prospect Masyn Winn are in the organization as potential replacements. Yet DeJong is performing better than any of the impending free agents in a weak shortstop class. That there’s a chance the front office might have to think about this one is a testament to his strong start.
Justin Steele To Undergo MRI Due To Forearm Tightness
4:25pm: Steele will undergo an MRI, Ross tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
4:05pm: Cubs left-hander Justin Steele was removed from today’s start after throwing three perfect innings. The trainer had visited him in that third inning and Steele finished the frame but didn’t return in the fourth. The club later announced to reporters, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, that the southpaw was removed due to forearm tightness.
It’s too early for the club to have any kind of firm diagnosis on the issue, but Steele will undoubtedly undergo further testing to get a clearer picture of the situation. Forearm tightness is an ominous combination of words for a pitcher as it often precedes a serious ailment, though that’s not always the case. Nonetheless, it will be a situation to monitor given that Steele has only grown in importance recently.
Now 27, Steele broke out last year by posting a 3.18 ERA in 119 innings over 24 starts. He struck out 24.6% of batters faced, walked 9.8% and got grounders at a 51.2% rate. He’s only further cemented himself in the Chicago rotation this year, as his outing today dropped his ERA to 2.65. His strikeout and ground ball rates have declined slightly, but he’s also allowing far fewer walks and home runs.
With the recent return of Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs have a set rotation that also consists of Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly and Steele. The strength of that group pushed Hayden Wesneski out of the picture, as he was optioned to the minors earlier this month. He was recalled yesterday with the plan of him helping out of the bullpen, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. That has come into play quickly, as he jumped into today’s game when Steele departed, throwing 59 pitches over 3 2/3 innings.
Prior to getting optioned, Wesneski had been working as a starter and could perhaps do so again if Steele needs to miss any time. That would likely be a downgrade for the club, as the righty had a 5.03 ERA in his eight starts this year. He’s still young, 25 years old, and could certainly take a step forward. But Steele has been one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball in many categories this year, including ERA, FIP and fWAR. It would be unfair to expect just about any pitcher to step in and replicate that kind of production.
There could also potentially be effects elsewhere in the club’s system, as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier today that the club was open to various paths to supplementing its bullpen. Codi Heuer is working his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery, but the club has also seemingly given some thought to promoting youngsters like Ben Brown or Daniel Palencia. “Everyone is on the radar at this point,” manager David Ross said. “We’re hoping Codi comes back soon. That could be, hopefully, another big-league arm that is able to help us out. Ben Brown has been throwing the ball really well in the starter role. Palencia has been sent to the ‘pen, to work out of the ‘pen and try to learn that role — what that consists of, how to go back-to-back, the recovery with all that. There’s a plan in place, for sure, and big-picture stuff. But this is what we’ve got right now. We have conversations daily about those things.”
Brown, 23, came over from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. He has a 2.25 ERA through nine starts this year, split between Double-A and Triple-A. Palencia, meanwhile, came over from the Athletics in the 2021 Andrew Chafin deal. He had a 5.87 ERA through five Double-A starts this year before getting bumped to the Triple-A bullpen for his two most recent appearances. Neither player has made their major league debut yet but Brown does have a 40-man roster spot.
The club is scrambling a bit to try to cover for a poor performance from its bullpen so far this year. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 4.55 on the season, a mark that places them 27th out of the 30 clubs in the league. All of these conversations were happening before Steele’s departure today. If that proves to be an injury of any significance, it would only stretch their staff further, though they will surely be hoping it proves to be something minor that passes quickly.
Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan
With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA
Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.
Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA
Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721
Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.
Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA
Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.
Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.
Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA
The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).
Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Adam Morgan Retires
Left-hander Adam Morgan hasn’t played since opting out of a minor league deal with the Astros in May 2022, and The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (Twitter link) reports that the seven-year MLB veteran has retired. Morgan will call it a career after tossing 369 2/3 innings over 233 games with the Phillies and Cubs from 2015-21.
Six of those seven seasons were in Philadelphia, as Morgan was a third-round pick for the Phils in the 2011 draft. Despite a shoulder surgery that cost him the 2014 draft, he still made a pretty quick path to his MLB debut in June 2015, though he had pretty shaky results as a starter in his first two seasons. A move to the bullpen gave Morgan a niche as a multi-inning reliever, and he posted a 3.97 ERA over 133 2/3 relief innings from 2017-19.
Some other injuries hampered Morgan in 2019, and after struggling over 13 innings for Philadelphia in the shortened 2020 season, Morgan underwent a flexor tendon repair surgery in October 2020 that kept him off the mound until May 2021. This return came with the Cubs’ Triple-A team, as Morgan signed a minor league deal with Chicago that offseason after the Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man roster.
Morgan made it back to the Show for 25 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2021, posting a 4.26 ERA in what ended up being his final big league season. For his career, the southpaw had a 4.80 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate over his 369 2/3 frames. Unsurprisingly, most of Morgan’s success came against left-handed batters, who managed only a .215/.291/.331 slash line against the hurler in 574 plate appearances.
Morgan caught on with the Astros during the 2021-22 offseason, but enacted the opt-out clause in his contract since no opportunities were emerging for him on Houston’s MLB roster. The lefty has now chosen to hang up his spikes altogether at age 33, and went back to the University of Alabama (where Morgan played college ball) to get his degree. Gelb notes that Morgan is a co-founder of Objective X-Ray, an organization devoted to providing mental health resources and financial assistance to military veterans and first responders.
We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Morgan on his baseball career, and wish him all the best in his post-playing days.
Quick Hits: Stroman, Maeda, Orioles, Barreto
Cubs starter Marcus Stroman remains hopeful of finding a long term contract extension with the Cubs, with the veteran telling Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that a trade away from Wrigley would “bother” him.
“At this point in my career, I’m so open to anything. But it would bother me a bit, just because I feel like I do love it here, as far as the city, the organization from the top down, the fans,” Stroman said.
Stroman is the middle of another quality campaign, posting a 2.95 ERA through 11 starts. That mark comes with a 9.1% walk rate and a 21.3% strikeout rate.
It’s already been reported that Stroman and the Cubs had preliminary extension talks in the spring, and while Rosenthal adds that the Cubs are open to a new deal, it does not appear that anything is imminent. The Cubs, in the midst of an 8-19 run, would seem to be trending towards selling at the deadline and Stroman may well be a valuable trade chip for them.
Stroman holds a $21MM player option for 2024 but would appear to be on track to opt out of that and test the open market. It’s also worth noting that the Cubs can’t tender a qualifying offer to Stroman, as he already took one (and accepted it) from the Mets.
Here’s some more bits and pieces from around the sport:
- The Orioles are one team that certainly are not trending towards being sellers, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias says they’re “preparing to be buyers”, per Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. While there’s quite a bit of time before trade season really heats up, it should come as no surprise that the 33-19 Orioles will be adding. Despite having a hugely promising young roster, the O’s have resisted pushing the chips in, opting to sell at last year’s deadline before making only modest additions this past winter. The team has made a notable step forward this year though, and perhaps that’ll be enough to encourage Elias to be a bit more aggressive on the trade market.
- Some help is on the way for the Twins, with Kenta Maeda and Caleb Thielbar to start rehab assignments this week, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Maeda made just four ugly starts for the Twins this season before hitting the shelf with a triceps strain, giving up 16 earned runs in as many innings. The Twins rotation has done well in Maeda and Tyler Mahle‘s (Tommy John surgery) absence, and it’s possible the team could use him in relief at least to begin with. Thielbar has been out since early May with an oblique strain, and his return will give the team another left handed option in the bullpen. Thielbar was off to a nice start to the season, working to a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings.
- The Nationals have released Franklin Barreto, per the Talk Nats podcast. The former A’s and Angels infielder joined Washington on a minor league deal but hit just .202/.282/.455 in 111 plate appearances at Triple-A. A former top-100 prospect, Barreto never hit in the big leagues, compiling a .175/.207/.342 line over parts of four seasons in the big leagues.
Cubs Release Eric Hosmer
The Cubs have released Eric Hosmer, according to the veteran first baseman’s MLB.com profile page. Hosmer was designated for assignment last week, and now that he has gone unclaimed on waivers, he’ll return to the open market in the aftermath of the release.
It wasn’t an unexpected outcome given Hosmer’s underwhelming performance this season, as he hit .234/.280/.330 with two home runs over an even 100 plate appearances. The Cubs signed Hosmer to a one-year deal this past offseason hoping for a bounce-back in a best-case scenario, but more realistically viewing him as something of a placeholder until Matt Mervis was ready for a regular dose of first base duty in the majors. With Trey Mancini also getting a lot of action at first base and Patrick Wisdom able to play the position, Chicago didn’t even have room for Hosmer as a veteran complement.
Signing Hosmer came with essentially no financial cost to the Cubs, who owed him just a Major League minimum salary ($720K). As per the terms of his eight-year, $144MM deal signed with the Padres during the 2017-18 offseason, Hosmer is still owed $13MM in each of the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons, and San Diego is still responsible for the vast majority of that money. Should another club sign Hosmer to a new contract, that new team will again just have to pay a prorated minimum salary, with the Padres footing the rest of the $13MM bill for 2023.
Given this low-risk salary situation, it’s possible a team in need of first base help, left-handed hitting depth, or clubhouse leadership might explore bringing Hosmer aboard. However, it has been some time since Hosmer has been a truly productive member of a roster, as the 33-year-old has hit only .263/.323/.406 since the start of the 2018 season (or, when he joined the Padres in the first place). Those offensive numbers translate to just a 98 wRC+, and Hosmer’s overall value is -0.1 fWAR in the last five-plus seasons.
Cubs Reinstate Kyle Hendricks, Option Nick Madrigal
May 25: The Cubs have announced to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that Hendricks has been officially reinstated with Nick Madrigal optioned in a corresponding move.
May 24: The Cubs are going to be reinstate right-hander Kyle Hendricks from the injured list, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay the information from manager David Ross. Hendricks will start Thursday’s game against the Mets.
Hendricks, 33, will be making his first major league appearance in almost a year. He last climbed the hill on July 5 of last year, after which he was placed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. Initial MRIs didn’t reveal any structural damage but he was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear. The tear was relatively small and didn’t require surgery, but he has nonetheless required a lengthy period of time to get back to full health.
The righty had spent many years as a reliable cog in the Cubs’ rotation prior to falling off a bit in recent seasons. From 2014 to 2020, he logged over a thousand innings with a 3.12 ERA. His 20.8% strikeout rate in that time was on the modest side but he showed excellent control with a 5.3% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.5% clip. That also included several strong postseason starts, such as 2016 when he took the ball five times with a 1.42 ERA and helped the Cubs win the World Series for the first time in over a century. He’s now the only Cubs player from that curse-breaking club that’s still on the roster.
In 2021 and 2022, however, he posted a combined 4.78 ERA with all of his rate stats worsening by a bit. He stuck out 17.3% of batters faced while walking 6% and getting grounders on 41% of balls in play. Hendricks has been rehabbing in recent weeks, making five starts with a 5.75 ERA in that time. However, most of that damage came in the first two outings, as he had a 1.69 ERA in the final three. Only time will tell what sort of results he can post at the major league level after the long injury layoff.
The Cubs’ starters have a collective 3.93 ERA this year, which places them 10th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly are all posting good results, though Jameson Taillon has an 8.10 ERA through seven starts. There’s surely a lot of bad luck in there given his .369 batting average on balls in play and 50% strand rate, leading to a nicer 4.93 FIP and 4.52 SIERA. He’ll undoubtedly have a long leash to figure things out since he just signed a four-year, $68MM deal this winter. Hendricks figures to take the rotation spot of Hayden Wesneski, who was recently optioned after posting a 5.03 ERA through eight starts.
The performance of Hendricks in the remainder of this season will impact the club on the field but also from a business perspective. He and the club signed a four-year $55.5MM extension going into 2019, with 2023 being the final guaranteed season. He’s making $14MM this season and the club has a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.
Cubs Designate Eric Hosmer For Assignment
The Cubs announced a series of roster moves today, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay them on Twitter. Infielder Nico Hoerner has been activated off the injured list, Edwin Ríos was recalled from Iowa and outfielder Mike Tauchman has had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, Cody Bellinger has been placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to May 16 with a left knee contusion, Keegan Thompson has been optioned to Iowa and first baseman Eric Hosmer has been designated for assignment.
Hosmer, 33, signed an eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres going into the 2018 but then saw his production tail off once the ink on that deal was dry. He had a career batting line of .284/.342/.439 prior to that deal but has hit just .263/.323/.406 since then. That latter line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been a couple of ticks below league average. Since first baseman are generally expected to produce more on the offensive side of things, that’s been an obviously disappointing performance.
He was frequently the subject of trade rumors during him time in San Diego and eventually was flipped to the Red Sox at least year’s deadline with the Padres eating almost all of the remaining money on his deal, with Boston on the hook for just the league minimum. Boston was then encouraged enough by the developments of first base prospect Triston Casas that they released Hosmer in the offseason.
The Cubs then agreed to bring Hosmer aboard, which was a move that had no financial risk since the Padres were still responsible for most of the $39MM remaining on the final three years of his contract. It was seen by many that Hosmer would be a sort of placeholder, hopefully playing at a serviceable level until some younger player such as Matt Mervis eventually forced their way into the major league plans. Mervis was called up a couple of weeks ago and is hitting just .220/.256/.317 so far but Hosmer isn’t doing much better, currently slashing .234/.280/.330 for a wRC+ of 67. It seems the Cubs will use Hosmer’s at-bats on other players and let him seek out his next opportunity.
Hosmer will inevitable be released in the coming days and return to the open market. He hasn’t been able to provide much value lately but he might still get interest based on his previous work and the fact that he’d be essentially free in terms of dollars. He also appears to be respected around the game for intangibles like his clubhouse presence and leadership, which could also appeal to certain clubs.
Turning to the other moves, Bellinger seemed to injure himself by colliding with the wall in Houston while making a catch on Monday. The club took a few days to see how his situation developed but has decided to let him rest for at least another week. He was non-tendered by the Dodgers after last season due to his struggles in both 2021 and 2022 but is in better form so far this year. After signing a one-year, $17.5MM deal with the Cubs this winter, he’s hitting .271/.337/.493 in addition to stealing nine bases and playing quality defense. Christopher Morel is in center field tonight and could perhaps stay there until Bellinger comes back.
Tauchman, 32, could also be in that mix, as he’s been playing all three outfield slots in Triple-A this year. He’s also walked in an incredible 20.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a .278/.427/.443 slash line and 129 wRC+. He has 257 games of major league experience under his belt, having played for the Rockies, Yankees and Giants from 2017 to 2021. His career batting line is currently .231/.326/.378 for a wRC+ of 90. He spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, hitting .289/.366/.430 in 144 games there.
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.