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Willson Contreras Has Received Preliminary Multi-Year Offers From Cardinals, Astros

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The market for the top free agent catcher continues to come into view. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports that Willson Contreras has received preliminary multi-year offers from both the Cardinals and Astros at this week’s Winter Meetings. A third team has also put forth an offer, according to Wittenmyer, though the identity of that club is unknown (but is said to not be either Boston or Tampa Bay). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch characterizes discussions more informally as the team also juggles trade possibilities but notes there has been talk about the possibility of a multi-year offer.

Both St. Louis and Houston have been tied to Contreras numerous times through the offseason, but it’s still notable those teams have put proposals on the table. John Denton of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that a fourth year could be an obstacle in Contreras’ talks with St. Louis. According to Denton, the Cards are prepared to meet the three-time All-Star’s asking price on an annual basis but are reluctant to go past three seasons. Whether another team is putting a fourth year on the table isn’t clear, although Wittenmyer adds that no teams have thus far been willing to go five years.

St. Louis skipper Oliver Marmol confirmed reports the Cards would sit down with Contreras at the Winter Meetings. Goold has suggested the team’s preferred solution is to acquire A’s backstop Sean Murphy, although that’d require surrendering highly-regarded young talent — and the A’s are reportedly looking for MLB-ready players in return. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets there’s a growing sense the Cardinals could find their new catcher in free agency, and he characterizes Contreras as the target that’d be most likely in that scenario.

The Astros interest in Contreras dates back to the trade deadline, but owner Jim Crane nixed an agreed-upon swap that’d have brought him in from Chicago. It seems they’re less concerned about him acclimating to a new pitching staff with an offseason to prepare than they’d be if he were added in the midst of a pennant race, and the multi-year proposals on the table reflect that. Houston has Martín Maldonado as their top backstop at present, and Contreras would be expected to rotate between catcher, left field and designated hitter if they pulled off a deal.

At the end of the season, the 30-year-old declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs. He’d cost any signing team at least one draft pick, while the Cubs stand to receive draft compensation in the highly likely event he departs. MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $84MM contract for Contreras at the start of the offseason.

Cubs, Brailyn Marquez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Brailyn Marquez, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. He’d been non-tendered last month, removing him from the 40-man roster.

After a couple weeks on the open market, Marquez returns to the only organization he’s known. Signed out the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 international amateur period, Marquez blossomed into one of the game’s most talented pitching prospects. Owner of a fastball that worked into the upper 90s, he appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects league-wide in both 2020 and ’21. Shaky control led to some speculation he could wind up in the bullpen as a potential high-leverage reliever.

Unfortunately, injuries have thrown off that once-promising career. Marquez made his big league debut with one appearance during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since then. He’s spent each of the past two years on the minor league injured list, and he underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder in June. Chicago decided at year’s end to cut him from the 40-man roster as a result.

Still just 24 in January, Marquez will try to get back onto the roster in 2023. He clearly has a fair bit of potential when healthy, but it remains to be seen what kind of form he’ll show after the rehab from the shoulder procedure.

Cubs Have Met With Carlos Correa At Winter Meetings

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The Cubs have had discussions with Carlos Correa in the past 24 hours, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and manager David Ross all attended the meeting. Levine also notes the team has had recent discussions with both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson – the other two top shortstops remaining after Trea Turner agreed to a deal with the Phillies.

Both Correa and Bogaerts in particular have been strongly linked to the Cubs this off-season, and although it’s not yet known whether or not either has received an offer, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times relays information from Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer’s media availability stating the team has made multiple offers to free agents this winter, and that the team is heavily focused on free agency over trades at the moment.

In the wake of Turner coming off the board on an 11-year, $300MM deal, there seems sure be a greater sense of urgency among the teams seeking to sign one of the top free agent shortstops. The Cubs have long been speculated as a possible landing spot for one of the “big four” (now big three) shortstops. They’re a team with plenty of financial muscle that’s looking to make a splash and return to winning ways, so inking a marquee free agent makes plenty of sense.

Correa only turned 28 in September, so he’s still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that may not have all the pieces it needs to compete for a championship in 2023. Correa also comes with the added benefit of avoiding draft pick compensation, as he already received one last winter before signing his short-term deal with the Twins.

He’s also coming off yet another elite season, one in which he was worth 4.4 fWAR with the Twins. He slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs for a wRC+ of 140. He experienced a dip in defensive ratings, but was still worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, though that was the lowest mark of his career.

MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM deal for Correa, although in light of Turner’s deal with Philadelphia, it’s not hard to imagine Correa’s contract heading north of the $300MM mark. The Cubs currently have a projected payroll of $127MM, per RosterResource, which, for a team that has seen payrolls in excess of $200MM recently, leaves plenty of room for a Correa-sized addition and more.

Of course, Correa’s market is expected to be robust, with the Twins making a strong effort to re-sign him, and the Giants and other teams likely to be interested. With that in mind, it makes sense that the team is remaining engaged with Swanson and Bogaerts as well. Levine reports that Chicago met with Bogaerts ten days ago. Swanson is a year older than Correa, while Bogaerts is 30, and while both are elite players in their own right, both will probably command smaller commitments than Correa.

While there’s been plenty of talk of the Cubs signing one of the top shortstops, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the team could sign two of the shortstops. In that case, it’d likely be Bogaerts and Swanson signing, rather than Correa and one of the other two, and it’d be contingent on Bogaerts moving to third base. Needless to say, with the widespread interest in all three players, it’d be a challenge for the Cubs to win the bidding for two of them, but it’s an interesting added layer to consider.

Catching Notes: Cubs, Murphy, Astros, Contreras, Cardinals

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9:45PM: The Cubs are also showing interest in Murphy, as per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).

8:56PM: The Astros are the latest team to explore a trade for Athletics catcher Sean Murphy, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link).  Houston joins a lengthy list of suitors known to include such teams as the Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals.

The A’s are surely commanding a high price tag in any Murphy deal, and the cost could possibly be a little steeper for one of Oakland’s AL West rivals.  Nonetheless, the Astros have a good amount of young talent that could catch the Athletics’ interest, and Houston might feel the acquisition cost is worth it to add a former Gold Glover who is under control through the 2025 season.

Defense and game-calling has long been a priority behind the plate for the Astros, which is why the team has stuck with Martin Maldonado even though Maldonado’s offense has sharply fallen off in the last two seasons.  However, the Astros did acquire Christian Vazquez at last year’s trade deadline, and Vazquez, Willson Contreras, and now Murphy has emerged on Houston’s radar this offseason.  Whereas Contreras could be fit into the lineup as a DH or as a left fielder, Murphy has played exclusively as a catcher during his pro career, and moving a strong defender like Murphy away from the catcher’s position could be seen as a bit of a waste.

That said, the Astros might also simply install Murphy as the regular catcher and move Maldonado into more of a clear backup role.  Maldonado is only under contract through the 2023 season, and thus Murphy provides more of a longer-term answer behind the plate.

If Houston didn’t want to meet Oakland’s demands for Murphy, signing Contreras would cost only money and a compensatory draft pick rather than prospect depth, which might be preferable for the Astros in the bigger picture.  Contreras has long been of interest to the Astros, and former general manager James Click had arranged a trade at the deadline that would have sent Jose Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed the proposed deal on advice from manager Dusty Baker.

With the Astros now set to meet with Contreras as a free agent, Baker clarified his objection to the midseason deal.  “It’s not that I didn’t want him, at the time, I just didn’t think it was the proper fit with two months to go in the season,” Baker told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters today.  “You have to learn the pitching staff, how we go about doing things, and I didn’t feel there was enough time to do that.”

Obtaining a more defensively-sound catcher like Vazquez was apparently more acceptable in Baker’s view, and it also certainly helped that Vazquez only cost the Astros two position-player prospects (Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu) rather than a solid pitcher like Urquidy.  Since Justin Verlander has now left the Astros to sign with the Mets, Urquidy has some added importance to an Astros rotation that is still quite strong, even without the AL Cy Young Award winner.

While the catching market is usually pretty thin, there have been plenty of rumblings about backstops this winter, given the presence of Contreras and Vazquez in the free agent market, as well as major trade chips (i.e. Murphy, or the Blue Jays’ and Braves’ catchers) all perhaps in play.  Since Yadier Molina has now retired, the Cardinals have one of the more pressing needs at the position, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that trading for Murphy “is atop their list” among the many options.  If the Cards traded for a catcher rather than spending bigger to sign a free agent like Contreras, Goold speculates that the team could then re-allocate any extra budget space towards a free agent, potentially even one of the remaining top shortstops like Dansby Swanson.

Padres, D-Backs, Guardians Among Teams Interested In Christian Vazquez

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8:08pm: The Diamondbacks and Giants are also in the mix for Vázquez, Abraham reports (on Twitter). The Boston Globe writer also suggests he’s likely to find at least three years and floats the possibility of a four-year pact materializing.

4:07pm: Christian Vázquez is the second-best catcher available in free agency this offseason, the top option for teams not willing to meet a much loftier asking price and surrender a draft choice for Willson Contreras. It’s little surprise the two-time World Series winner is generating a fair bit of attention from clubs, with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reporting the Padres, Guardians and Twins are all in the mix. Rosenthal also lists the Cubs and Cardinals — each of whom has been previously linked to the veteran backstop — and the incumbent Astros as teams in the bidding.

None of the new suitors is all that surprising, as they could each stand to upgrade behind the dish. That’s arguably not as pressing a concern for San Diego as it may be for some other teams, as the Friars do have Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as a viable catching tandem. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.

Nola, 33 this month, has spent two-plus seasons in Southern California. He looked like a late-blooming breakout player with the Mariners in 2019-20, leading San Diego to acquire him at the 2020 deadline in a now-regrettable swap that landed Ty France, Taylor Trammell and Andrés Muñoz in Seattle. Nola’s offensive production has dropped off since the trade, and he owns a .254/.327/.348 line in 665 plate appearances as a Padre. That’s fine production for a catcher but it’s not overwhelming, with Vázquez coming off a superior .274/.315/.399 showing. Campusano is a longtime top prospect with a strong Triple-A track record, but he has all of 28 MLB games under his belt.

Pursuing Vázquez could also be a way for the Friars to more indirectly upgrade their roster, as signing a catcher would free them up to market Nola or Campusano in trade talks. The 24-year-old Campusano still has six seasons of remaining club control and would have a fair bit of value on the trade market, able to appeal to win-now clubs and teams with further off contention windows alike. Nola has three seasons of arbitration-eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary next season. He’s not as appealing as Campusano but could still attract some attention if the Friars made him available.

The Guardians, meanwhile, are certain to add a catcher this offseason. Austin Hedges hit free agency, leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians have been one of the more frequently mentioned suitors for A’s backstop Sean Murphy, who seems highly likely to be dealt. Vázquez isn’t that caliber of player, but he wouldn’t force the team to surrender any young talent to add him. A highly-regarded game-caller with consistently strong defensive metrics and a plus arm, Vázquez would be a sensible target for a Cleveland team that has prioritized catcher defense.

The Twins have made no secret of their desire to add another catcher to pair with 25-year-old Ryan Jeffers. Both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have spoken of the appeal of bringing in another catcher capable of starting 100-plus games to take some of the responsibility off Jeffers. They’re not so much trying to supplant their internal catcher as find a strong complement to him. Vázquez would surely qualify, although it’s unclear if the Twins are prepared to offer him as many at-bats as he’d like.

Late in the season, Vázquez suggested to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe he’d prioritize finding a primary job in free agency. A longtime #1 catcher in Boston, he took a bit of a backseat to Martín Maldonado during his final couple months in Houston, starting just 23 games in the season’s final two months.

That desire for playing time would seem to reduce the chances Vázquez ends up back in Houston. Maldonado is under contract for another season and beloved for his ability to work with the pitching staff. The Astros have been wary of usurping him as their top catcher, and Rosenthal suggests they’d pursue a Vázquez reunion as part of a broader playing time split with Maldonado. Houston has been strongly linked to Contreras a few times this winter, with the thought that the longtime Cub’s bat plays well enough he could see extended time at designated hitter or in left field in addition to his time behind the plate. That’s less appealing for a glove-first player like Vázquez, who’s a good hitter for a catcher but a below-average offensive threat compared to players at less demanding positions.

There should be more than enough interest for Vázquez to find a #1 job again if that’s indeed his priority. He also looks in position to land a solid payday, as Rosenthal writes he’s likely to find a three-year commitment. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted the MDR Sports Management client for a three-year, $27MM contract.

Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles Among Teams Pursuing Jameson Taillon

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Right-hander Jameson Taillon is one of the top names on the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers this winter, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among the teams pursuing him. The Mets were already known to have interest in Taillon, as SNY’s Andy Martino recently reported that they made a strong effort to close a deal with the right-hander last week. Martino noted that with Justin Verlander atop the Mets’ priority list, the Mets might not be inclined to beat the market for Taillon.

Any of the four teams in today’s report would represent a perfectly logical landing spot for Taillon, who did not receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and thus can be signed without the forfeiture of any draft picks or international bonus space. There’s some injury risk, to be sure, as Taillon has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and heavy contracts for two-time Tommy John patients are fairly rare.

That said, however, Taillon has reestablished himself as a quality mid-rotation hurler since his 2021 return from that second ligament replacement operation. In two seasons with the Yankees, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect pitched to a combined 4.08 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a strong 5.7% walk rate. The Yankees carefully monitored his workload in his first post-surgery season in ’21, as Taillon averaged just shy of five innings per start in his 29 trips to the mound. However, he averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in 2022, improved his ERA, lowered his walk rate and upped his ground-ball rate.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets have been fairly aggressive in their early efforts to land Taillon, as they recently lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers and also saw each of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams reach free agency this winter. At the moment, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill would comprise the top four spots in manager Buck Showalter’s rotation.

Even with a pronounced need in the rotation, the Mets are still projected by Roster Resource to carry a $234.7MM payroll — with a hearty $246.6MM of luxury obligations on hand at present. The Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’d be a second-time offender and thus face steeper penalties in 2023. They’re facing a 30% tax on the first $20MM over the tax line, plus 42% for the next $20MM, 75% for the next $20MM and 90% on any money spent thereafter.

The Phillies, too, are trending toward being a repeat luxury tax payor. Though they’re currently more than $40MM shy of the $233MM tax barrier, they’re known to be heavily interested in the high-end shortstops in free agency and are also looking into rotation help (hence the apparent Taillon interest). Taillon would slot into the rotation behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, joining Ranger Suarez and likely Bailey Falter to form the starting five in Philly. Prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry loom in the upper minors.

From a financial perspective, it’s different story for the Cubs and Orioles, neither of whom are anywhere near the luxury tax. Both clubs, however, are looking to add some win-now pieces after rebuilding efforts of varying extent. The Cubs have Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele locked into rotation spots in 2023, but the fourth and fifth spots remain more fluid. Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski are all candidates currently, but it seems likely Chicago will add at least one starting pitcher this winter.

Over in Baltimore, the O’s have already agreed to a one-year deal with Kyle Gibson, but Taillon would be more of a statement addition who’s viewed as a multi-year piece of the puzzle. Beyond Gibson, the O’s have Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann, Spenser Watkins and Mike Baumann as options, to say nothing of top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Baltimore also hopes to welcome lefty John Means back from Tommy John surgery later in the 2023 season.

There are surely plenty of other clubs who’ve held discussions with Taillon and his representatives at Excel Sports. That he’s one of the non-ace starters who’s still reasonably young — he’ll pitch all of next season at 31 — and won’t require any draft compensation could make interest sufficient enough to make him one of the first notable starters off the board. We ranked Taillon 14th on our annual Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year deal at $56MM

Pitching Notes: Puk, Kluber, Pagan, Britton

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When discussing the Athletics’ 2023 rotation, general manager David Forst told reporters that reliever A.J. Puk will prepare for the season as a starter and enter spring training with a chance to earn a spot on Oakland’s staff, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Forst noted how Puk “got through a season healthy,” with the lefty only spending time on the COVID injured list during 2022.

Puk, a former first-round draft pick, threw 66 1/3 innings (62 appearances) during the 2022 season with a 3.12 ERA, a strong 27.1% strikeout rate, and an 8.2% walk rate. The 27-year-old had previously worked his way through Oakland’s minor league system as a starter but transitioned to a bullpen role in Triple-A and has yet to start a game at the major league level.

The As utilized a rotation comprised of Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian, Paul Blackburn, and Frankie Montas (before his trade to New York), but also received at least seven starts from Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, JP Sears, Daulton Jefferies, and Ken Waldichuk. Nevertheless, Oakland’s vast staff housed the fifth-highest ERA (4.69) and sixth-lowest strikeout rate (18.3%), while allowing the third-most home runs to opposing batters (129).

In other news:

  • The Cubs have checked in with Corey Kluber as they search to add to their rotation, reports Sahdev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Sharma and Mooney add that Kluber is close friends with Cubs catcher Yan Gomes and is “more open-minded about Chicago” after spending the past few seasons on the East Coast. Kluber, who turns 37 years old in April, joined the Rays in 2022 on a one-year, $8MM contract laced with incentives that he maxed out, resulting in a total salary of $12MM. The two-time Cy Young winner pitched 164 innings (31 starts) with a 4.34 ERA, a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate, a tiny 3.1% walk rate, and a career-low 35.1% ground ball rate. However, Kluber labored as the season progressed, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in the first half compared to a 5.14 ERA after the All-Star break. Nevertheless, he was able to complete his first full season since 2018. Kluber made one appearance during Tampa Bay’s postseason push, throwing 1 2/3 innings of relief and giving up a solo shot in a Rays’ Wild Card loss.
  • Despite a shaky first season with the Twins, Emilio Pagan reportedly garnered trade interest at both the trade deadline in August and the non-tender deadline in November, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Pagan, 31, pitched 63 innings of 4.43 ERA baseball, earning seven saves with a high 30.7% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, and 39.9% ground ball rate. 2022 was Pagan’s third consecutive season with an ERA over 4.40 after gaining prominence pitching to a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings with the Rays in 2019. MLBTR predicts that Pagan will receive $3.7MM during his final trip through the arbitration process.
  • Free agent and former two-time All-Star Zack Britton has “started his normal offseason throwing program and should be a full go in spring training,” reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that Britton is seeking a “one-year deal.” Britton, who turns 35 years old in December, pitched to a 1.90 ERA in 80 1/3 innings across 2019 and 2020 before dealing with elbow discomfort in early 2021 and undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of the season. Britton returned to the mound near the end of the 2022 season but was soon shut down with shoulder fatigue. Despite two lost years, Britton will likely field calls from across the league, having recorded ground ball rates of at least 70% in eight of his last ten seasons, excluding 2022.

Cubs Interested In Dansby Swanson

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The Cubs are among the teams with interest in shortstop Dansby Swanson, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link).  Chicago has been known to have interest in the free agent shortstop market, though Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts were the shortstops more linked to the Cubs.

Still, with so many other teams keen on landing a top-tier shortstop, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs have at least considered every member of the “big four” — Swanson, Bogaerts, Correa, and Trea Turner.  Bogaerts and Correa have stood out from the pack since the Cubs have reportedly had interest in Correa for years, while Bogaerts’ ties to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer string back to Hoyer’s days in the Red Sox organization.

That said, Swanson naturally has plenty of appeal to any team looking for an upgrade at shortstop.  The former first overall pick is coming off the best of his seven MLB seasons, as Swanson had a career-high 6.4 fWAR over 696 plate appearances and the full 162 games with the Braves.  Swanson’s contributions came on both offense (.277/.329/.447 with 25 homers and 18 steals) and defense, with his first career Gold Glove and a range of above-average marks from public defensive metrics.

Swanson turns 29 in February, so he is still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that might have a few too many roster holes to be a full-fledged contender in 2023, though it depends on how aggressive Chicago plans to be this winter.  Like Bogaerts and Turner, Swanson comes at the extra price of draft pick compensation, since all of these three shortstops rejected a qualifying offer (Correa was ineligible for a QO after receiving one last winter).  Swanson is the second-youngest of the big four shortstops, though he is generally seen as the member of the group who has the smallest price tag, comparatively speaking.  MLBTR projected him for a seven-year, $154MM deal, which still ranks fifth on our top 50 free agents list — Swanson was ranked behind only Aaron Judge and the other three shortstops.

It stands to reason that pretty much every team (i.e. the Phillies, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox) looking into any of the top shortstops might have some interest in other members of the group, a la the Cubs.  That said, the Braves have been the only team known to have a direct interest in Swanson himself, and if Swanson did sign elsewhere, Atlanta isn’t likely to look to Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts as a replacement.

Astros Claim Rylan Bannon From Cubs

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The Astros announced they have claimed infielder Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Cubs.

Bannon, 27 in April, was drafted by the Dodgers but went to the Orioles in the 2018 trade that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers. He stuck with the O’s until August of 2022 but has gone on a whirlwind adventure through the waiver wire since then. He has been claimed by the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs and now Astros in the past few months.

He has just five major league games under his belt so far but he fared well in the minors this year, which is surely what’s causing all of these waiver claims. In 99 Triple-A games this year, he walked in 14.4% of his plate appearances and produced a batting line of .249/.367/.421.

Bannon played both second and third base this year and still has one option year remaining, making him an attractive depth piece. The Astros recently saw utility player Aledmys Díaz hit free agency, perhaps spurring their interest in bolster their bench/depth infield options.

Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts

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11:40am: The Athletic’s Peter Gammons cites front office officials from three other teams who are of the belief that Bogaerts will not return to Boston (Twitter link). As he did with regard to Bogaerts playing another position, however, Boras outwardly denied the report, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Bogaerts is “open to any and all voices in the free agent market” and adding that he and Bogaerts “have not closed any doors on anyone.”

10:04am: Next week’s Winter Meetings are generally expected to serve as a catalyst for what’s been a slow-moving free agent market. As the league’s biggest offseason convention approaches, the interest for some of the top players available is beginning to come into focus.

Xander Bogaerts is part of a loaded shortstop class, and a number of teams have checked in with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports the Diamondbacks and Cubs have expressed interest, while adding that previously-reported suitors like the Phillies and Dodgers are in the mix. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently checked in with Scott Boras about Bogaerts’ willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Boras, however, flatly rejected the possibility; the agent tells Rosenthal “Xander is playing shortstop” and denied that San Diego would prefer to move him off the position.

San Diego’s interest in Bogaerts isn’t a new development. Marino Pepén listed the Padres as a suitor last week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post has suggested they’re involved in the top of the shortstop market more generally. The Friars are seemingly serious enough in their pursuit to gauge Bogaerts’ amenability to move off the position.

The infield mix at Petco Park is already crowded, although there are a number of multi-positional options who can move around. Manny Machado is locked in at third base, while the rest of the current infield figures to be made up by some combination of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth. Kim has proven himself an excellent defensive shortstop and earned an everyday role with a .251/.325/.383 showing this past season. Tatis was expected to be the franchise shortstop after a brilliant start to his career earned him a $340MM extension, but he’s now under consideration for a move to second base or the outfield after missing all of 2022 due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug ban. Cronenworth is a quality defender at the keystone, but the Friars have floated the possibility of kicking him over to first base with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury hitting free agency.

Adding a first base/designated hitter type might be the most straightforward path to building out the offense, but there’s no harm for Preller and his staff in considering other avenues. Adding another middle infielder while kicking Cronenworth to first base would give San Diego an elite defensive infield, while Bogaerts is among the top offensive players available regardless of position. He’s long been mentioned as a candidate to move off shortstop towards the end of a free agent deal after years of subpar defensive marks, but he quieted those concerns (at least in the short term) with arguably the best season of his career with the glove. Bogaerts rated as four runs above average in more than 1200 shortstop innings by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast this past season. He hasn’t played anywhere else since 2014 and while there’s little question he could handle a less demanding position like second or third base, it doesn’t seem he’s willing to do so.

There are a number of other teams with worse internal options than the Padres that’d surely be willing to plug Bogaerts in at his longtime position. The Diamondbacks relied on rookie Geraldo Perdomo this year, and he looked overmatched to the tune of a .195/.285/.262 line in 500 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed is under contract and can play excellent defense, but he’s always been a below-average hitter and lost almost all of this past season to surgery on his throwing shoulder.

Arizona general manager Mike Hazen is plenty familiar with Bogaerts from his previous work in the Red Sox’s front office, so it’s little surprise they’re interested in adding him given the uncertain shortstop outlook. The question is whether a Diamondbacks team that has had a payroll south of $100MM in each of the past two seasons would be willing to commit a deal of that magnitude. MLBTR predicts a seven-year, $189MM contract for Bogaerts. The D-Backs already have roughly $98MM in salary commitments for next season, per Roster Resource, so adding a salary in the realm of $27MM annually would require owner Ken Kendrick signing off on a major spending hike relative to recent levels.

The Cubs have a cleaner long-term payroll outlook that makes them a viable fit for any of the top shortstops. Nico Hoerner is a quality incumbent, but he’s already expressed a willingness to move to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2023 commitments around $127MM, and they’ve opened each of the past two seasons with payrolls in the $140MM to $150MM range. Chicago has pushed spending north of $200MM in the past. There’s room for an aggressive offseason, but president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his front office have to weigh whether to invest in the middle infield against other weak points on the roster like center field, first base, catcher and the back of the rotation.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so any signing team will have to forfeit draft choice(s) and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. Boston has consistently maintained retaining him is their top priority, though extension talks dating back at least to Spring Training haven’t gotten anywhere. The Phils are widely expected to be in play for a top shortstop, but reports suggest they’re more dialed in on Trea Turner at the moment. The Dodgers could certainly turn to any of the other shortstops if Turner walks, while the Twins reportedly have Bogaerts as their top fallback if they can’t retain Carlos Correa.

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