Cubs Rumors: Bryant, Castellanos, Schwarber, Almora
Star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant filed a grievance against the Cubs in regards to their decision to call him up to the majors for the first time April 17, 2015 – one day after he’d have been able to work toward a full year of service time. Many viewed it (and still do) as a clear act of service-time manipulation on the Cubs’ part. A decision on Bryant’s grievance could come by next month’s winter meetings, though it’s doubtful he’ll win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests. Regardless, there aren’t any hard feelings between the two sides, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and agent Scott Boras indicate in Wittenmyer’s piece. But are the Cubs primed to extend Bryant, who has two expensive seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining? It doesn’t seem any recent long-term talks have occurred, but “Theo and I are talking all the time, and certainly when he and ownership want to discuss anything along those lines, our ears are open, no doubt,” Boras said. The Cubs’ most recent offer to Bryant came “long before” last year “and for much less” than the $200MM-plus the club was rumored to have put on the table, Wittenmyer writes.
Here’s more on the North Siders…
- While the Cubs aren’t in danger of losing Bryant yet, they are facing the departure of free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Although Castellanos starred for the Cubs after they acquired him from the Tigers at the July trade deadline, Chicago’s probably not going to re-sign him, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic observes (subscription link). Not only is Castellanos likely to end up earning more than the Cubs are willing to spend – MLBTR projects he’ll reel in a $58MM guarantee over four years – but their corner outfield mix may be too crowded to bring him back. The team already has Bryant, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber among its option in left/right.
- If the Cubs were to retain Castellanos, “they would have to aggressively try to deal Schwarber,” Sharma posits. The Cubs regard them as similar players, according to Sharma, and for good reason. They’re both offensively adept corner outfielders who are arguably defensive question marks. However, the Cubs don’t believe they’d get an appealing enough return for Schwarber to trade him, and they’re reluctant to deal him after the excellent second half he posted in 2019, Sharma hears.
- More from Sharma, who relays that center fielder Albert Almora‘s “a strong possibility” to stay with the Cubs because he lacks trade value. The free-agent market for center fielders is weak, and Almora has three affordable years of arbitration control left. Those factors, not to mention his age (26 in April), could boost his trade value. However, the production Almora recorded in 2019 may offset the positives. He hit .236/.371/.381 with a disastrous minus-0.7 fWAR across 363 plate appearances. Still, Chicago seems unwilling to give up on Almora via trade or non-tender.
Mike Napoli To Join Cubs’ Coaching Staff
The Cubs will add former MLB slugger Mike Napoli to their coaching staff, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (link). Napoli is expected to serve as the club’s quality assurance coach, per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (link). As Sharma notes, Napoli was a teammate of new Cubs manager David Ross while a member of the Red Sox in 2013.
Most fans will remember Napoli as a thumping catcher and first baseman responsible for 267 home runs in an MLB career that spanned 12 seasons. Aside from garnering a reputation as one of the game’s more fun-loving clubhouse figures, Napoli also earned himself a World Series ring as a member of the previously mentioned 2013 Boston team (not to mention his runner-up effort as part of the 2016 Indians, who lost in seven games in the Fall Classic to his new Chicago employer).
If similar to other QA roles around the game, Napoli’s new position as quality assurance coach will likely call for an emphasis in hands-on supervision and instruction of players across the Cubs’ roster and minor league system. Recently, Royals quality control and catching coach Pedro Grifol received serious consideration for a handful of managerial openings, so the import of Napoli’s new role is not to be discounted. As a former player — and one who was revered in the clubhouse — Napoli should be adept at conveying data and analytical input to the players on Chicago’s roster.
Cubs Hire Dan Kantrovitz As Vice President Of Scouting
The Cubs announced Wednesday that they’ve hired Dan Kantrovitz away from the Athletics to serve as their new vice president of scouting. Kantrovitz had been an assistant general manager with Oakland for the past five years, working under executive vice president of operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst.
Kantrovitz broke into baseball operations with the Cardinals in 2004 and has had multiple stints in both the St. Louis and Oakland front offices — including a run as the Cardinals’ director of scouting from 2012-14. During that time, the Cards drafted the likes of Michael Wacha, Stephen Piscotty, Carson Kelly, Kyle Barraclough, Marco Gonzales, Oscar Mercado, Luke Voit, Luke Weaver, Daniel Ponce de Leon and 2019 breakout ace Jack Flaherty.
Since returning to the Athletics for the 2015 season, he’s been elevated to assistant GM and tackled a variety of responsibilities within baseball operations. Per the Oakland media guide, Kantrovitz had a “primary focus on overseeing statistical analysis for evaluating and targeting players in the amateur draft, free agent and trade markets.”
Kantrovitz played shortstop in college at Brown University and graduated with a degree organizational behavior and management. In 2009, he completed a Master’s Degree in statistics at Harvard University.
The hiring of Kantrovitz comes two months after the Cubs announced that vice president of amateur scouting and player development Jason McLeod would transition to the role of vice president of player personnel. More recently, director of amateur scouting Matt Dorey was named senior director of player development.
Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score first reported the hiring of Kantrovitz, via Twitter
GM/Coaching Notes: Pirates, Cubs, Mets, Tigers, ChiSox
Blue Jays vice president of baseball operations Ben Cherington and Brewers assistant general manager Matt Arnold will get second interviews this week for the Pirates’ GM vacancy, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and reporter Robert Murray. Cherington and Arnold are reportedly two of three finalists to take over in Pittsburgh. Pirates assistant GM Kevan Graves seems to be competing with them, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweets that he also appears likely to receive another interview. Meanwhile, even though the Pirates technically don’t have a GM right now, they’re also carrying on their search for a manager. Twins bench coach Derek Shelton has been particularly impressive to the club thus far, Heyman relays.
More staff news from around baseball…
- Cubs first base coach Will Venable has been popular in managerial searches in recent weeks. The Cubs discussed their job with Venable prior to their David Ross hiring, and he also sat down with the Giants in regards to their position before they selected Gabe Kapler. Now that Venable’s not going to land a managerial job this offseason (unless Pittsburgh pursues him), the former major league outfielder will stay where he is. He’ll be one of the Cubs’ base coaches in 2020, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets. The Cubs have at least one opening for those positions, as third base coach Brian Butterfield left to take the same role with the Angels.
- The Mets are closing in on a deal to retain hitting coach Chili Davis, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The former big league slugger is fresh off his first year with the Mets, whose offense made strides on his watch. Davis helped the club to the majors’ 13th-most runs and its seventh-highest wRC+ (104).
- The Tigers have hired Josh Paul as their quality control coach, the team announced. Paul served as the the Angels’ bench coach over the previous three years, but the Halos fired him after this season. The 44-year-old Paul was previously a major league catcher and then a well-regarded assistant in the Yankees organization.
- Nationals assistant hitting coach Joe Dillon is a legitimate candidate to become the Phillies’ hitting coach, Heyman suggests. Dillon has been working under Nats hitting coach Kevin Long, who’s a favorite of new Phillies manager Joe Girardi, as Heyman points out. Long was the Yankees’ hitting coach for part of Girardi’s tenure as their manager. Dillon, meanwhile, is an ex-major league infielder/outfielder who has two years’ experience as a coach at the game’s highest level.
- Scott Coolbaugh is the White Sox‘s new assistant hitting coach, the club announced. Coolbaugh was the Orioles’ hitting coach from 2015-18 and the Dodgers’ Triple-A hitting coach this season. He’ll team with White Sox new HC Frank Menechino in his new role.
Cubs Interested In Re-Signing Brandon Morrow
Injuries have victimized free-agent reliever Brandon Morrow over the past year and a half, which recently forced the Cubs to buy him out for $3MM in lieu of exercising a $12MM option for 2020. However, that doesn’t mean the Cubs are uninterested in keeping Morrow in the fold. On the contrary, the club’s considering trying to bring the right-handed Morrow back on a minor-league deal, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Morrow, for his part, seems open to returning to the Cubs. Agent Joel Wolfe told Wittenmyer that “Brandon feels a certain sense of loyalty and obligation back to the Cubs to stay with them if they want him on a minor-league contract or something like that. He signed with the Cubs because he thought they were the best organization out there for him, and he still believes that.”
Morrow, then fresh off a stellar season with the Dodgers, joined the Cubs on a two-year, $21MM guarantee entering 2018. The Cubs’ decision looked brilliant at first, as Morrow pumped high-90s heat and fired 30 2/3 innings of 1.47 ERA/2.97 FIP ball with 9.1 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent groundball rate over the 2018 season’s initial few months. Unfortunately, though, Morrow hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 15 of that year because of various injuries.
Back, biceps and elbow issues have been the latest problems during an injury-laden career for Morrow, once a promising starter who reinvented himself as an effective reliever before health troubles reared their head again during his Cubs tenure. Morrow has undergone two elbow surgeries since last November, including one at the end of this season, though he has progressed well enough that he should be ready for spring training, according to Wolfe.
If Morrow does regain health by next year, he’ll have a chance to emerge as a low-cost steal for the Cubs or some other team. In the Cubs’ case, they could clearly use bullpen help – especially with Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop and David Phelps among their free agents. However, it’s up in the air how much money the luxury tax-minded Cubs plan on spending as they work to improve their relief corps (and their roster as a whole) after falling short of expectations in 2019. If they’re on the hunt for potential bargains, a reunion with Morrow would seemingly make sense.
Three Teams Exceeded 2019 Luxury Tax Threshold
The Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs were the three teams to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times noted over the weekend. MLBTR has confirmed that is the complete and final list of organizations identified by Major League Baseball as owing competitive balance obligations.
Each of those clubs exceeded $206MM in 2019 payroll, as calculated by Major League Baseball pursuant to the rules governing the competitive balance tax. Generally, the CBT calculation looks to the average annual value of player contracts while also accounting for bonuses and other payroll-related expenses. The CBT threshold rises to $208MM in 2020 and then to $210MM in 2021.
Last year, the Red Sox and Nationals surpassed the spending threshold and paid taxes. The D.C. organization managed to duck under the line but could again be in that tax bracket if it spends to defend its World Series title. The Red Sox are expected to try to duck under the limbo bar in 2020. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have now gone two straight years without paying after a five-season streak of tax bills.
Precise calculations aren’t yet available, but Cot’s on Contracts has estimates of the complicated CBT tabulations. Their figures show both the Nats and Dodgers over the line, though obviously those organizations were able to sneak in just below. The Astros and Phillies appear to have been the next-biggest spenders, though both were a fair sight shy of any tax bills.
The Cot’s figures allow us to make some rough estimates of the actual amounts due. The Red Sox will pay the most, as they were the only team to incur tax liability for consecutive seasons, thus raising the rate. With an estimated payroll of just under $240MM, the Boston org will pay 30% on their first $20MM in overages and 42% on the rest, resulting in an estimated bill of just under $12MM.
The Cubs also ran up a tab that came in just shy of the $240MM mark by Cot’s reckoning. They are not a repeat luxury level team and therefore pay the base rate of 20% for the first $20MM and 32% for the next $20MM in salary over the threshold. That would result in a liability of a little under $8.5MM. Cot’s credits the Yankees with $234MM of spending for CBT purposes. Since the Bronx Bombers spent a year shy of the luxury line, they also get first-time treatment and would stand to owe just over $6.5MM.
None of the three teams came close to topping $246MM in payroll, at which point they’d not only have faced a bigger tax rate on further spending but also would’ve seen their top draft pick moved down the board ten spots. But the trio does still face some ongoing impact beyond the money owed. Inking a free agent who declined a qualifying offer will cost a bit more in compensation than it would have otherwise — specifically, $1MM in international amateur bonus pool spending capacity along with the team’s second and fifth-highest draft picks. The rules also suppress the level of compensation available to teams that lose QO’ed free agents after exceeding the luxury line, though none of these three clubs issued qualifying offers this offseason.
Giants Hire Scott Harris As GM
The San Francisco Giants have hired Scott Harris to serve as the team’s general manager, according to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. Harris had previously worked as the Cubs’ assistant GM since 2018 after five years as Chicago’s director of baseball operations.
Harris, 32, will join the Giants as Farhan Zaidi’s second-in-command after the team went more than a year without a general manager. A bay area native, Harris graduated from UCLA and earned his MBA from Northwestern, breaking into the baseball industry as an intern with the Nationals and Reds, positions that he turned into a full-time gig in the MLB commissioner’s office. In his time with the Cubs, he had a hand in the club’s ascension to World Series champions in 2015, emerging as the right-hand man for top baseball ops officers Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.
Even with a general manager in place, the Giants’ baseball decisions will still run through Zaidi, who with a year under his belt now has the opportunity to populate the Giants’ leadership ranks with his own hires. Zaidi was brought aboard to be the top dog and foremost decision-maker, and that won’t change. However, that’s not to downplay the importance of Harris’s addition; the general manager, in Zaidi’s own words, will “share the load in managing the overall operation,” an endeavor in which Harris should be of considerable utility: in a statement from the Giants, Harris is credited with overseeing the Cubs’ research and development department, the arbitration process, and the baseball ops department’s financial strategy and planning.
And Harris will have to get started right away. With the GM meetings underway this week, Harris will enter his new post during one of the busiest and most critical times of the year for baseball executives. With the Giants still searching for their next manager, it’s not clear how much sway Harris will have in the final hire, though it’s no doubt a priority that Harris, Zaidi, and the new skipper are all on the same page. Still, Harris could still provide some valuable input: Joe Espada, one of the finalists for the Giants’ job, also interviewed for the Cubs position, a process in which Harris almost certainly would have participated.
The addition of Harris represents the continuation of the Giants’ organizational overhaul of the baseball operations department, which began last year with the ouster of GM Bobby Evans. The organization sought a more modern front office, with a president of baseball operations working in concert with a general manager. In Zaidi, the club found their president last year. And now, the GM is in place. After Bruce Bochy’s retirement, there’s of course another important hire that must be made, and it seems that a decision could be coming soon: the Giants have reportedly narrowed the field down to three finalists: Joe Espada, Gabe Kapler, and Matt Quatraro.
On the field, Zaidi has already begun his transformation of the team, showing an aptitude for acquiring marginal talent improvements in low-risk moves. The acquisitions of players like Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Kevin Pillar, and Donovan Solano—all of which came at a minimal cost to the Giants—played a part in the Giants’ surprising midseason run that kept them on the brink of playoff position despite low expectations.
This, along with a burgeoning farm system and the undeniable purchasing power of the Giants, makes the Giants an attractive rebuilding project for an executive like Harris—more so, at least, than when Zaidi took over after 2018, inheriting a group consisting largely of dynastic leftovers and pricey, past-their-prime mercenaries. The outlook for 2021 and beyond, though, is a promising one. With prospects like Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, Marco Luciano, and Hunter Bishop anchoring the farm system, there’s some foundation to work with. And when hefty contracts start to come off the books, the Giants can expect to flex their financial muscles and become a real player in negotiations with top free agents.
For Giants fans hoping to learn more about the newest addition to the San Francisco front office, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma profiled Harris in March of 2018, painting him as a hard-working rising star in baseball’s front office landscape. Harris drew rave reviews from superstar execs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, under whom he worked in Chicago.
NL Notes: Contreras, Banks, Hefner
We already checked in on some notes from the American League today. Now let’s take a look at the National League.
- A Willson Contreras trade won’t do the Cubs any favors in 2020, but it’s more preferable than moving any of the team’s other star players, opines Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic. Some rival organizations believe Chicago will indeed make that move this offseason, and there would surely be ample interest in the 27-year-old catcher if the Cubs put him on the market. Contreras is one of baseball’s best offensive catchers, and the Cubs maintain that he’ll improve as a pitch framer, although as Sharma notes, he continues to rate near the bottom of the league in that category. Parting ways with a franchise catcher isn’t ideal, but the Cubs do at least have a strong internal replacement available in Víctor Caratini. The same can’t be said for shortstop, third base, or first base, so a trade of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, or Anthony Rizzo is tougher to envision. The Cubs don’t have to trade any of those players, Sharma points out, although ownership seems unlikely to green-light a major payroll increase and the MLB pitching staff and minor-league system both need augmenting.
- Nationals outfield prospect Nick Banks put together a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League. He credits some of that success to Ken Joyce, a hitting coach in the Yankees organization, with whom Banks worked in the AFL, reports Byron Kerr of MASN. A fourth-round draft choice by Washington out of Texas A&M in 2016, Banks hit well across two levels, reaching Double-A Harrisburg this season. He’s never been regarded as a top prospect (topping out as Washington’s #31 prospect after 2016, per Baseball America), although perhaps his solid 2019 season and postseason mechanical work with Joyce will turn some heads in the organization. The 24-year-old will be Rule V eligible if he’s not added to Washington’s 40-man roster by November 20.
- The Mets are set to interview Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner for their top pitching coach position. Their interest in bringing him on staff isn’t new, as SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter) reports that New York offered him an interview for bullpen coach last offseason. The former Mets’ pitcher was then already locked into his position with Minnesota, but he’ll sit down with New York brass this time around for an opportunity to lead the entire pitching staff.
Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners
Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…
- The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
- The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.
Teams With Catching Needs Reportedly Eyeing Cubs’ Contreras
While it would seem surprising to see the Cubs put young backstop Willson Contreras up for trade, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter link) that it’s a possibility. “Multiple teams” around the game believe the Chicago organization will take offers for the 27-year-old, per the report.
Let’s stop here to make clear: the expectations of rival executives does not a trade make. But it’s notable nevertheless that such a potential outcome has sprung up at this earlier stage of the offseason; after all, teams have been talking already. The negotiating partners of Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein will want to know whether there’s any realistic possibility of landing Contreras, or whether instead they should simply look elsewhere.
There’s no denying the major value Contreras would have on the open market. He dealt with some leg injuries, but was excellent when healthy. Over 409 plate appearances, Contreras slashed .272/.355/.533 with 24 home runs. He’s a lifetime 117 wRC+ hitter who is perhaps on the upswing (or at least not in decline) with the bat.
Behind the plate? The tools all seem to be there. He has generally been quite successful at cutting down the running game and at blocking stray pitches. There’s an argument that Contreras has been on the upswing in the framing department; he ended the year ranked as a positive in that regard — at least by one tabulation. Framing metrics have varied.
MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian looked at this question recently, noting that there are multiple ways to look at the matter. It seems clear the team feels that Contreras isn’t a fully finished product, though in some respects that only makes him more intriguing.
Bastian quotes Epstein:
“We’ve won a lot of games with Willson Contreras behind the plate. We’ve had a lot of success pitching with Willson Contreras behind the plate. There are certainly areas he can continue to improve upon, but shame on us if we can’t continue his development at the big league level, because this is like the most tooled-out, athletic catcher who has a huge heart and cares and wants his pitcher to succeed as well.”
Contreras won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s projected to earn a relatively stout $4.5MM in his first trip through arbitration, but that’s a plenty manageable figure for a regular backstop. The three years of contract control remaining are quite enticing, all things considered.
All of those factors also make Contreras exceptionally valuable to the Cubs — a team that isn’t exactly in position to pack it in for a rebuild. True, they have Victor Caratini on hand to perhaps take a bigger piece of the action if paired with a veteran. But you’d think that new manager David Ross would be well-positioned to help Contreras reach his monster ceiling. And there’s a reason that clubs prize the few, rare catchers in the game that contribute both with the glove and with the bat on a near-everyday basis.
Teams are already considering just how much to pay the older but also excellent Yasmani Grandal in free agency. They may have a more affordable alternative in Contreras, though it’ll surely cost a small fortune in trade value. (Last year’s J.T. Realmuto swap provides some conceptual help, though he was a year closer to free agency at the time he was dealt.) Just what the Cubs would be looking for in return isn’t known, though it would presumably not be an entirely future-oriented bargain for the Chicago organization. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether talks gain any traction and, if so, what direction they take.