Trade Candidate: Carlos Villanueva
29-year-old righty Carlos Villanueva has kicked off his Cubs career with three quality starts. That's been a big part of the team's 3.11 rotation ERA, third-best in the National League. The Cubs, however, have failed in most other aspects of the game and are already six games back in the NL Central with a 5-13 record. Once again, the team's veterans need to be ready for the possibility of a summer trade.
Because of his age and some decent rotation work for the Blue Jays last year, Villanueva was able to find a two-year, $10MM deal with the Cubs in December. The Cubs had already signed Scott Baker and Scott Feldman at that point, and went on to add Edwin Jackson. That's a whopping four free agent starters, but the depth has been necessary so far with Baker and Matt Garza on the shelf. Garza's first minor league rehab start is scheduled for tomorrow, so he's projected to return in May. Baker will be out until at least June, after undergoing Tommy John surgery a year ago. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Baker, the Cubs have assembled significantly more rotation depth than they had last July, when they traded Paul Maholm and Ryan Dempster.
So, there's a chance the Cubs move two starting pitchers again this summer. With free agency looming, Garza is a prime candidate. If he stays healthy and reasonably effective, Villanueva is another. Though he has one of the slower fastballs you'll see from a right-handed starter, Villanueva has been effective since joining the Jays' rotation in late June of last year. Since then he's started 19 games, with a 3.90 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 1.67 HR/9 in 113 innings. Some of his numbers in his brief Cubs career are unsustainable, but if Villanueva's walk and groundball rates stick, he should have continued success. In particular, he shouldn't be quite so homer-prone moving forward.
Perhaps they underestimated Maholm at the time, but the Cubs were still able to acquire a top-90 prospect from the Braves in Arodys Vizcaino last summer. Like Maholm, the Cubs can offer an additional full season of Villanueva's services, making him more than just a rental. The Indians, Angels, and Phillies are a few early potential matches, should those teams remain on the fringe of contention. Should the longball remain an issue for Villanueva, though, it could cause teams with hitters' parks to shy away.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Cubs, Hudson, Hamilton
Cubs manager Dale Sveum is upset with his team's recent play and says that players who don't perform won't have big-league jobs, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times reports. That goes for top young players Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. "I don’t think [anyone’s] invincible if you’re not performing," Sveum says regarding Castro and Rizzo. "It’s not about what we think can happen three or four years from now. It’s time to perform on a consistent basis."
Wittenmyer writes that Sveum's harsh words for Castro and Rizzo "threw a sudden dose of skepticism and doubt into the widespread assumptions about the Cubs’ core," but acknowledges that, in reality, Castro and Rizzo will be with the Cubs for the foreseeable future. Sveum is suggesting they might be demoted, but that seems extremely unlikely, and it's even less likely that either of them would be traded. The Cubs signed Castro to a seven-year, $60MM contract last August. Rizzo is not signed to a long-term deal. Both players have hit well this season despite occasional mistakes in the field. Here are more notes from around the majors.
- John Poloni — also known as the "fat scout" in Michael Lewis' Moneyball — lobbied for the Athletics to draft Tim Hudson in 1997, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Hudson wasn't regarded as a top draft prospect due to his size, but Poloni told the A's that Hudson had "the best sinker he'd ever seen." 16 years later, Hudson is nearing his 200th win in the big leagues. That doesn't mean Poloni is rushing to take credit, however. "He exceeded my expectations, too," Poloni says. "A lot of times, it's pure luck."
- Last offseason's big-ticket free agents haven't performed well so far, says the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Rick Hummel. One of the highest-profile disappointments thus far has probably been Josh Hamilton of the Angels, although it's still early enough in the season that one big series could make any player's statistics look considerably better.
Quick Hits: Dodgers, Garza, Price, Yankees
"You can never have too much pitching" isn't just a cliche, and the 2013 Dodgers are proof of that. The Dodgers announced today that Chad Billingsley is headed to the disabled list because of right elbow pain and the right-hander may even require Tommy John surgery down the road. The Dodgers theoretically had a pair of extra starters to dangle to teams a couple of weeks ago, but injuries to Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Zack Greinke have put that idea on hold. Here's more from around baseball..
- Baseball officials told Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) that if Matt Garza winds up getting tied to draft pick compensation like Kyle Lohse, the advice they would have for him would be to push his negotiations early in the offseason. Because he's not a Greinke-type of talent, Garza will want to sign before teams have already settled in around spring training.
- Olney recently suggested that the Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers could be frontrunners if the Rays move David Price, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times doesn't see Tampa Bay doing business with Boston unless it's at a significant premium.
- Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and other new Yankees are rejuvenating their careers in New York, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News.
Quick Hits: Nava, Borbon, Giambi
Daniel Nava, whose three-run homer helped the Red Sox to a dramatic victory Saturday, has come a long way since repeatedly considering retirement, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Nava played independent-league baseball in 2007 and considered quitting before catching on with the Red Sox in 2008. Then, after playing with the Red Sox in 2010 and spending 2011 with Triple-A Pawtucket, he didn't get invited to Major League spring training in 2012, and he considered quitting again. He ended up staying, and spent much of the 2012 season with the big-league team, hitting .243/.352/.390. This year, he's an important part of the Red Sox outfield. Here are more notes from around the majors.
- Outfielder Julio Borbon had a "whirlwind day" after being claimed off waivers on Friday, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat writes. After learning he'd been claimed by the Cubs, Borbon got to Milwaukee's Miller Park in the eighth inning Friday night. Manager Dale Sveum, who had been ejected, told Borbon to suit up. Borbon did, and entered the game as a pinch-runner, then ended the game when he got thrown out trying to steal. Borbon expressed excitement at being claimed by the Cubs because he's a fan of President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein. "My fiance, she’s from Boston, and she knew him, and she was the first one to tell me he had done great things for the city of Boston," said Borbon. "From his background and his resume, he’s on his way to doing the same thing here."
- Jason Giambi of the Indians looks forward to becoming a coach one day, but for now he's enjoying the end of his big-league career, Gene Duffey of MLB.com writes. Giambi interviewed for the Rockies' manager position last year (the job went to Walt Weiss) and has declined coaching jobs with other teams while he continues to play. "I want to enjoy this while I can," says Giambi. "Unfortunately, this game will let you know when it's time to walk away. Sometimes it's not your choice. I've been lucky enough and blessed enough to be in my 19th Major League season. And I'm going to enjoy every minute."
NL Notes: Gregorius, Garza, Phillies
Here are a few notes from the National League:
- The Diamondbacks raised eyebrows with several of their offseason moves, including the decision to part with young arm Trevor Bauer in the deal that brought shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius to Arizona. While it is still far too early to evaluate this deal, ESPN's Buster Olney writes (on Insider) that the most recent scouting returns on Gregorius are positive. Known as an excellent fielder, the glove-first Gregorius has been flashing improved strength and bat speed that could lead to more power than was previously expected. Off to a hot start to his big league career as he fills in for an injury-plagued Dbacks squad, the 23-year-old Gregorius certainly appears to be living up to Arizona GM Kevin Towers' hopes in the early going. Towers said the club not only felt that Gregorius "can really, really play short," but saw excellent bat speed and pitch recognition and believed he was "a tremendous kid" who has "got no fear."
- Soon-to-be free agent hurler Matt Garza of the Cubs ranks seventh on MLBTR's Tim Dierkes's latest 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings despite his prolonged absence from the majors. Garza appears to be set up for a mid-May return, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Much like Roy Halladay, Garza's expected free agent haul could swing wildly based on 2013 results. While that is, of course, the case for any prospective free agent, it is possible to conceive of a wider band of results for a player like Garza. The 29-year-old features a very solid track record and relative youth, but is coming off of a long lull due to multiple injuries. Of course, Garza's play upon his return will also play a big role in whether the last-place Cubs will look to deal the pitcher to a contender (or, in the alternative, look to extend or re-sign him).
- The Phillies' major offseason trade acquisition and now-former leadoff hitter Ben Revere has continued his inability to draw walks since joining the Phils. In comments on Thursday, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro bemoaned the team's inability to earn free passes, as reported by Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. In fact, the club has the third-worst walk rate in baseball (5.9%), well below the league average of 8.1%. The comments have led to some consternation among observers, such as Bill Baer of NBC Sports, who remember Amaro's statement in January: "I don't care about walks. I care about production."
Minor Moves: Lillibridge, Lewis, Hamren, Weglarz
Here are Friday's minor moves from around the league…
- Brent Lillibridge has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa by the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (on Twitter).
- The Cubs have also released right-hander Jensen Lewis, according to Muskat (Twitter link). The 28-year-old Lewis hasn't appeared in the Majors since 2010. He has a 3.68 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 198 Major League innings — all coming with the Indians.
- The Braves have signed right-hander Erik Hamren and first baseman Nick Weglarz to minor league deals, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Hamren, 26, threw 12 1/3 innings for the Padres in 2011 and posted a 4.38 ERA. Weglarz at one point ranked 58th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list, but his stock has fallen since that 2009 list. He has a career .252/.375/.439 batting line in the minors.
Cubs Designate Alberto Gonzalez For Assignment
The Cubs have designated infielder Alberto Gonzalez for assignment in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for Julio Borbon, the team announced via press release.
The 30-year-old Gonzalez hit .217/.269/.391 in 11 games for the Cubs this season. The Venezuela native has hit .241/.279/.319 over parts of seven Major League seasons with the Nationals, Yankees, Rangers, Padres and Cubs.
Cubs Claim Julio Borbon
The Cubs have claimed Julio Borbon off waivers from the Rangers, according to Borbon himself (on Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports confirmed the move (also on Twitter).
Borbon was designated for assignment by the Rangers last week and placed on waivers Wednesday after the Rangers were unable to work out a trade. The 27-year-old is a career .283/.324/.358 hitter with 40 stolen bases in 53 career attempts.
The outfielder drew interest from a few clubs including the Twins, who were said to be kicking the tires on him. Ultimately, however, the Rangers were unable to find a worthwhile deal for him. Texas ideally wanted a "pitcher with options" in exchange for Borbon.
Because waiver priority is determined by the previous year's standings for the first month of the season, the Cubs had second priority to claim Borbon. He did not pass through the entire American League unclaimed.
Cubs Outright Takahashi To Minors
We'll track today's minor moves here:
- The Cubs have outrighted reliever Hisanori Takahashi to Triple-A Iowa, the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer reports (on Twitter). The Cubs designated Takahashi for assignment in a series of moves earlier this week. Takahashi, 38, has a career 3.99 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in parts of four Major League seasons with the Mets, Angels, Pirates and Cubs.
Draft Notes: Gray, Appel
The 2013 Rule 4 draft takes place on June 6th, with the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, and Indians taking the first five picks. You can check out the full draft order here. The latest draft info:
- 6-foot-4, 240 pound Oklahoma righty Jonathan Gray is shooting up draft boards. ESPN's Keith Law had him eighth on March 14th, but now has him as the clear number two player behind another college righty, Stanford's Mark Appel. Gray, who hit 101 in several recent games according to scouts who talked to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, was drafted by the Royals in the 13th round in 2010 and the Yankees in the 10th round in 2011, and now projects to go very early in the 2013 draft. Oklahoma head baseball coach Sunny Golloway told ESPN's Teddy Mitrosilis, "He's going to Houston or the Cubs, No. 1 or No. 2."
- Appel is "still clearly the best player in this draft," in the eyes of Law. Law wonders if the Astros or Cubs can "try to work out a deal less than the recommended bonus number but more than the figure Appel turned down from the Pirates last year ($3.8 million), with the carrot of a big league callup in September if he throws well after signing." Appel is an advisee of the Boras Corporation.
- Prep outfielder Austin Meadows, college lefty Sean Manaea, and prep righty Kohl Stewart are the next three players on Law's draft board, which is ranks players by talent and upside and is not a mock draft.