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Central Notes: Twins, Singer, Moustakas, Alzolay

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The Twins have been dealt a series of injuries this season, and another pair of notable players departed last night’s game against the Mariners early. Third baseman Josh Donaldson left for precautionary reasons in the second inning with tightness in his right calf. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons came out shortly thereafter with left ankle tightness (relayed by Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). There’s no indication either player is dealing with anything serious, but each of Donaldson and Simmons landed on the injured list because of issues with those respective areas last season.

Donaldson missed nearly a month with a right calf strain, while Simmons missed a similar amount of time with a sprained left ankle. Given that history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twins play things cautiously with their left side infielders. In better news, outfielder Max Kepler, who has been on a rehab assignment at Triple-A St. Paul, could join the big league club by this weekend, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press).

Elsewhere in the Central divisions:

  • Royals right-hander Brady Singer was removed from yesterday’s start after three innings as a precautionary measure after he experienced right posterior shoulder tightness, the team announced. It’s not clear if he’s in jeopardy of missing his next start. The 24-year-old has only managed a 4.76 ERA in 68 innings this season, but Singer’s generally average strikeout and walk numbers (23.3% and 8.2%, respectively) and strong 50.5% groundball rate suggest he’s been a bit unlucky to allow so many runs.
  • Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that infielder Mike Moustakas has had his minor league rehab assignment halted after experiencing some soreness. It doesn’t seem there’s much cause for concern, but Moustakas’ return looks likely to be delayed a few extra days. The Reds have been without the 32-year-old for just under a month due to a right heel contusion. Before the injury, Moustakas got off to a pretty good start, hitting .241/.337/.437 with four homers over 104 plate appearances.
  • The Cubs have been without starter Adbert Alzolay for the past week-plus due to a blister issue. The 26-year-old tells Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago he expects to return at some point during the Cubs upcoming homestand, which runs from June 18-22. Chicago turned to Robert Stock in Alzolay’s place yesterday, but he allowed five runs and issued six walks in just four innings against the Mets. Alzolay has a solid 4.06 ERA/3.63 SIERA in eleven starts this season.

The Reds Could Be One Of The Deadline’s Most Interesting Teams

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We’re a little more than six weeks away from the trade deadline, and it appears July is going to be a month of difficult decisions for the Reds front office. Cincinnati sits at 32-31, third place in the NL Central. They’re slightly ahead of the Cardinals and five games back of the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the division lead. With the Giants surprisingly leading the star-studded Dodgers and Padres out west, the two wild card spots will be hard to come by in the National League.

By most measures, the Reds look like an average team. Their record is marginally above .500, while their -10 run differential is eighteenth among the league’s thirty clubs. FanGraphs’ rest of season projections have the Reds playing at an 80-82 pace; when coupled with their current record, they’d land right at 81-81 if they perform at that projected level from here on out.

Finishing .500 wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs, but the Reds also aren’t that far away from the postseason picture. The Cubs and Brewers have played well to this point but each has some obvious deficiencies on the roster (starting pitching for Chicago, the bottom of the lineup in Milwaukee). It doesn’t seem either team will run away with the division. Indeed, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Reds a 14.6% chance of making it to the postseason- unlikely, but not out of the question.

It’s possible the team will just define itself one way or another in the coming weeks. They still have 40 games to play before the July 30 deadline. If they go 25-15, they’d look like legitimate division contenders. A 15-25 swoon would make them an obvious seller. But what if Cincinnati plays .500 ball over the next month and a half- as they have so far and as the projections expect them to the rest of the way? The Reds would still be a long shot at that point, with playoff odds likely a bit lower than they are now (since they’d have even less time to make up ground on the teams in front of them). But they wouldn’t be completely out of contention, and selling at the deadline would be a tough sell to the fanbase.

Cincinnati suffered through six consecutive losing seasons from 2014-19. The organization made a concerted effort to end that run late in the 2019 season, acquiring Trevor Bauer with an eye towards 2020 and signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos the following offseason. They did snap the streak of below-average records in last year’s shortened season, but it took a playoff expansion for them to get into the postseason, where they were swept by the Braves without scoring a run. (That marked the 25th consecutive season since the Reds last won a playoff series, the longest active draught in MLB).

They’ve already lost to Bauer to free agency, and Castellanos could soon depart himself. The 29-year-old is having a fantastic season, sitting on a .361/.416/.635 line with 13 home runs in 255 plate appearances. Given that level of performance, it’d take a massive collapse or injury for him not to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM in guarantees on his contract. Castellanos opting out wouldn’t preclude the Reds from re-signing him, of course, but it’s not clear ownership would be willing to sign off on another significant outlay.

The Reds slashed payroll from $147MM in 2020 (prior to prorating) to $122MM this season on the heels of last year’s revenue losses. Next year, they’ll still be on the hook for substantial salaries to Joey Votto ($25MM), Moustakas ($16MM), Eugenio Suárez ($11.286MM) and Sonny Gray ($10.867MM), per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before accounting for arbitration raises for a group including Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo. Unless ownership is willing to again increase spending on player payroll, it could be tough to commit to a raise for Castellanos.

If the Reds aren’t going to re-sign Castellanos, there’s a case they should field offers on him this summer. As the sport’s third-best qualified hitter (behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Winker), he’d draw no shortage of interest. Castellanos would almost certainly command a prospect return greater in value than the compensatory draft pick the Reds would receive if they allowed him to depart as a free agent after making a qualifying offer. Trading away one of the game’s top bats would be a tough sell to a fan base that has seen very little recent success, though, particularly if the Reds remain only a handful of games back in the division race.

Maybe the team’s performance will make the Reds direction obvious by July 30. If they continue to play at the level they have been, however, their front office will have some very difficult decisions to make.

Reds Reinstate Aristides Aquino From Injured List

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The Reds announced they’ve activated outfielder Aristides Aquino from the 60-day injured list. Fellow outfielder Mark Payton was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to create active roster space. To open a 40-man roster spot for Aquino, utilityman Nick Senzel was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day IL.

Aquino fractured the hamate bone in his left hand in mid-April. The break required a surgical repair, and the 27-year-old ultimately wound up missing two months. Prior to the injury, Aquino had served as something of a designated pinch-hitter, coming off the bench in all ten of his appearances. With Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos having incredible seasons in the corner outfield, Aquino figures to assume that role once again.

The Reds are in a bit of a bind when it comes to Aquino. He burst onto the MLB scene in 2019, hitting a staggering 14 home runs in 115 plate appearances that August. Aquino really struggled over that season’s final month, though, and he didn’t perform at the start of 2020 either. Ultimately, he spent a good portion of last year at the alternate training site. He’s not a natural fit in center field, and with Winker, Castellanos and Joey Votto ahead of him on the depth chart at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, there’s not been much of an opportunity for manager David Bell to give Aquino everyday run.

Aquino is out of minor league option years, meaning the Reds can’t send him to Louisville without designating him for assignment. Given the promise he flashed as a rookie, Cincinnati hasn’t wanted to run the risk of losing him for little or no return on waivers or via a small trade. That dilemma will likely keep him on the Reds bench for now.

Senzel was placed on the injured list on May 21, retroactive to May 19. The transfer rules him out for 60 days from the time of his original IL placement- not today- so he won’t be eligible to return to the majors until mid-July. The 25-year-old, who has dealt with a barrage of health problems throughout his professional career, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee shortly after going on the IL.

The procedure originally came with a four-to-six week rest period. There’s no indication that’s meaningfully changed. He’ll surely need to go on a minor league rehab assignment before getting back to the big leagues. If he’d been tracking towards the latter end of his projected timeline anyhow, there’s little harm for the Reds in moving him to the 60-day IL and giving him an extra few days to rehab, particularly considering his injury history.

NL Roster Moves: Marlins, Rogers, Reds, Santillan, Phillies, Haseley, De Los Santos

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Marlins’ breakout starter Trevor Rogers has been placed on the injured list without an injury designation, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). It’s safe to assume the move relates to COVID-19 in some form or fashion, though speculatively speaking, it could be that Rogers is dealing with side effects from the vaccine. McPherson notes that the injured list stint is not expected to be long. That’s obviously welcome news for the Marlins, given Rogers performance in 13 starts this season. The 23-year-old rookie has logged 75 2/3 stellar innings with a 2.02 ERA/2.56 FIP.

In the meantime, Preston Guilmet had his contract selected, and he has been added to the active roster. The 33-year-old has not appeared in the Majors since 2018. He owns a 9.27 career ERA in 33 innings dating back to his 2013 debut with the Indians. Guilmet has also seen game action with the Orioles, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals, and Blue Jays. Elsewhere in the National League…

  • The Reds have recalled reliever Tony Santillan from Triple-A Louisville this morning, per the team. Santillan, 24, will make his Major League debut if he gets in a game. Fangraphs ranked him as the Reds’ 14th-ranked prospect at the start of this season, while Baseball America has him as high as ninth, noting some late-game potential for Santillan down the line.
  • The Phillies recalled Enyel De Los Santos from Triple-A, optioning catcher Rafael Marcan to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, per the team. Outfielder Adam Haseley was also reinstated from the restricted list and optioned to Triple-A.

Reds Sign Logan Morrison

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The Reds have signed first baseman Logan Morrison to a minor league contract, per an announcement from the High Point Rockers of the independent Atlantic League. Morrison had played nine games with the Rockers after signing last month. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Louisville.

Morrison has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past eleven seasons. He was a quality hitter as recently as 2017, but he scuffled in 2018 and hasn’t gotten much run at the highest level since. Morrison only picked up 38 plate appearances with the Phillies in 2019, and he tallied just 28 trips to the plate last year with the Brewers.

Cincinnati obviously has first base spoken for with Joey Votto, but the club’s left-handed bench players (Shogo Akiyama, Mike Freeman and Mark Payton) haven’t hit much. That could open an opportunity for Morrison if he gets off to a strong start in Louisville.

Injury Notes: Antone, Rosenthal, Sanchez, Owings

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve placed righty Tejay Antone on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm. The team is hopeful that it’ll be a minimum stint for Antone, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. Even a 10-day absence for Antone is a blow to the Reds, however, given how excellent he’s been out of the ’pen this season. Antone looked to have put together a breakout year in 2020, but he’s taken things even further in his age-27 campaign this year. The right-hander has tallied 32 innings out of the bullpen and recorded a brilliant 1.41 ERA to go along with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate and a 9.5 percent walk rate. Antone regularly works multiple innings and has picked up three saves to go along with seven holds.

After non-tendering Archie Bradley and dumping Raisel Iglesias’ salary in a deal with the Angels, the Reds have seen their bullpen pitch to an MLB-worst 5.88 ERA. That sky-high mark comes in spite of Antone’s dominance; the Reds’ other relievers have combined for a disastrous 6.58 ERA in 203 2/3 innings so far.

A few more notable injury situations around the league…

  • The Athletics are still hopeful that Trevor Rosenthal will be able to pitch for the team this season, writes Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Oakland currently has a mid-August target for Rosenthal, who developed thoracic outlet symptoms this spring after signing a surprising one-year, $11MM deal with the A’s. He underwent surgery prior to Opening Day, and while he’s not yet throwing, Rosenthal is progressing through a strength program. The Oakland bullpen has been a middle-of-the-pack unit so far in 2021, pitching to a 3.87 ERA with a 3.79 FIP. A’s relievers have the game’s lowest collective strikeout rate (20.5 percent) but also have one of the best walk rates (8.6 percent). Prior to their deal with Rosenthal, the A’s seemed to target relievers who were underpriced due to sub-par strikeout rates but also thrived in terms of limiting hard contact. To this point, the bullpen’s 34.5 percent hard-hit rate is the third-lowest in MLB.
  • Marlins starter Sixto Sánchez has resumed his rehab program, as he’s now throwing from 60 feet, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com was among those to pass along. Sánchez, who went down with shoulder inflammation in early April, had his throwing program paused last week on account of bursitis. He’s yet to pitch this season after tossing 39 innings of 3.46 ERA/4.18 SIERA ball in 2020.
  • Rockies utilityman Chris Owings is expected to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque this weekend, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). He’s already progressed to taking batting practice. Owings, who signed a minor league deal over the winter, made the Opening Day roster and got off to a scorching start over his first seven games. Unfortunately, he suffered a left thumb injury that required surgery in mid-April, keeping him out of action for more than two months.

Reds Place Sonny Gray On 10-Day IL

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5:27pm: The Reds don’t have an exact timetable for Gray, but manager David Bell is hopeful he’ll miss just two starts (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

3:29pm: The Reds announced that they have placed starter Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list with a right groin strain. The team recalled fellow right-hander Art Warren from Triple-A Louisville to take Gray’s roster spot.

It has been a rough year from an injury standpoint for Gray, who had a delayed start because of a back issue. Since the Reds activated him on April 17, Gray has pitched to a strong 3.42 ERA/3.52 SIERA with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate (the second-best mark of his career) and a roughly average 9.3 percent walk rate across 50 innings.

Of course, success in Cincinnati isn’t anything new for Gray, who has enjoyed a career renaissance since the Reds acquired him from the Yankees before the 2019 campaign. While little went right for Gray in New York, he has given the Reds 281 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball, and he has done so at a bargain rate. The Reds shrewdly extended Gray to a three-year, $30MM guarantee when they landed him. That deal also includes a $12MM club option for 2023, and though plenty can happen between now and then, Gray’s on track to have it picked up.

Considering Gray’s combination of high-quality performance and appealing contract, the Reds could be content to keep him for the life of his deal. On the other hand, though, the team did listen to offers for the 31-year-old last offseason, and it hasn’t gotten off to a good start in 2021. With the Reds in fourth place in the National League Central and the July 30 deadline looming, Gray could be a viable trade candidate this summer. In the meantime, he’ll have to get healthy.

Reds Activate Joey Votto

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The Reds announced Tuesday that first baseman Joey Votto is back from the 10-day injured list. To clear room for Votto, the Reds placed right-hander Michael Feliz on the 10-day IL (retroactive to Monday) with an elbow issue.

Cincinnati has gone more than a month without Votto, who hasn’t played since May 5 on account of a fractured left thumb. The 37-year-old, a six-time All-Star and former MVP, was off to a tough start before then with a career-low .226/.305/.425 line and five home runs in 118 trips to the plate. However, it wasn’t necessarily a hopeless start to the season for Votto, who dealt with some poor fortune that contributed to his mediocre line. For instance, Votto ranks well above average in several important Statcast categories – including expected weighted on-base average (his .377 xwOBA far outdoes his .319 real wOBA) – so his meager .250 batting average on balls in play seems likely to increase.

The Votto-less Reds have tread water since he went down, as they were one game under .500 then and that remains the case. The club is four games back in the competitive National League Central, which has three other contenders in the division-leading Brewers, the Cubs and the Cardinals.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/7/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Reds righty Hector Perez cleared waivers and was outrighted off their roster, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Perez, who celebrated his 25th birthday on Sunday, had been in limbo since the Reds designated him on June 2. He began this year by pitching to a 9.35 ERA in 8 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level before his designation.

Earlier:

  • The Red Sox outrighted Colten Brewer to Triple-A after the right-hander cleared waivers.  Brewer was designated for assignment last Thursday.  After a pretty solid 2019 season out of Boston’s bullpen, Brewer has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 frames over the last two years, including a single inning of work this season that saw him allow four earned runs.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Pirates, Frazier, Reds, India

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By all accounts, the Yankees will continue to treat the $210MM luxury tax line as a soft cap, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That gives GM Brian Cashman just about $4MM of accessible payroll space. As Rosenthal notes, those limited financial resources could account for a perceived “lack of urgency” from the front office. The Yanks are now 2-8 in their last ten and just two games over the .500 mark. Of course, even if the Yankees were ready to spend, there aren’t necessarily pieces out there to buy. The market tends to move as one, and it’s tough to get much traction until selling teams feel they have heard from a large enough swath of potential buyers. In early June, there simply aren’t enough buyers at the auction.

But that doesn’t have to stop us from looking at the potential options. For example…

  • Adam Frazier is generating trade interest, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The Pirates’ second baseman is one of the surest bets to find a new squad this trade season, as the 29-year-old is one of few veterans on a last-place Pirates team that’s one of the game’s few sure-thing sellers. He’s affordable, making just $4.3MM this season, and with one more year of team control, it’s the optimal time for GM Ben Cherington to net a high-impact return. While his .332/.394/.472 line hardly seems sustainable – nor does a .368 BABIP – he’s a versatile veteran with enough team control to convince potential buyers of his short-and-long-term value. The Yankees are a team that would seem like a particular fit for Frazier, though Murray writes that New York isn’t “among the teams to express early interest.”
  • Reds’ rookie second baseman Jonathan India made a change at the plate recently that’s paying off. He has settled down his mechanics in the batter’s box, ditching a high leg kick and utilizing instead a toe tap as his loading action, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The early returns are encouraging: India torched the Cardinals this weekend, going 7-for-18 with two home runs, two doubles and four walks to just one strikeout. That output upped his overall line this year to a solid .261/.368/.423, 18 percent better than average with the bat.
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