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Reds Sign Mat Nelson

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The Reds have come to terms with Competitive Balance Round A selection Mat Nelson on a $2.0958MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That matches the slot value of the #35 overall selection.

Nelson went undrafted last year, but he elevated his stock with a massive fourth-year season at Florida State. The right-handed hitting catcher popped 23 home runs — tying for the Division I lead — as part of an overall .330/.436/.773 slash line. He’s already 22 years old, so it’s a bit of a surprise he received full slot value as a Day One pick.

Nevertheless, Nelson was seen by public prospect evaluators as one of the class’s best catching prospects. He checked in between 50th and 60th overall on the pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The general expectation is that Nelson’s power and adequate defense can offset some minor swing-and-miss concerns and make him a potential regular behind the dish.

Cincinnati also came to terms with compensatory selection Jay Allen yesterday. That leaves first rounder Matt McLain (a UCLA infielder) as the lone unsigned player among the Reds’ three Day One draft picks.

Reds Sign Compensatory Pick Jay Allen

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The Reds announced yesterday they’d come to terms with Jay Allen, selected with the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent (Trevor Bauer) last offseason. Allen received a $2.4MM signing bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a touch above the $2.3655MM slot value that comes with the #30 selection.

Allen landed between 25th and 40th on the pre-draft rankings of each of Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and Keith Law of the Athletic. A center fielder from a Florida high school, Allen’s generally expected to contribute on both sides of the ball. He’s athletic enough to have a chance to stick in center, with advanced bat-to-ball skills and some physical projection on a 6’3″, 190 pound frame.

The Reds signed Allen away from his commitment to the University of Florida. The 18-year-old outfielder was one of three Day One picks for Cincinnati. The team has yet to finalize agreements with first rounder Matt McLain (an infielder from UCLA) or Competitive Balance Round A selection Matheu Nelson (a catcher from Florida State).

Draft Signings: 7/20/21

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Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:

  • The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
  • The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
  • The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
  • The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
  • The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.

Reds Designate Jose De Leon, Mark Payton For Assignment

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The Reds announced today that they’ve designated right-hander Jose De Leon and outfielder Mark Payton for assignment in order to clear 40-man roster space for right-handers Edgar Garcia and R.J. Alaniz, whose contracts have been selected from Triple-A Louisville. Cincinnati also formally placed righty Michael Lorenzen on the 10-day IL due to a hamstring strain — as manager David Bell first announced yesterday — and optioned lefty Cionel Perez to Louisville.

De Leon, 28, was one of the game’s top pitching prospects but had his development derailed by injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery early in the 2018 season. The Reds picked him up from the Rays in a deal that sent cash back to Tampa Bay, and he’s tossed 24 1/3 innings for them dating back to 2020. De Leon has whiffed 43 of the 126 batters he’s faced in that time (34.1 percent), but he’s also been clobbered for 29 runs in that time. Control has been a problem, as evidenced by a 17.6 percent walk rate and a pair of hit batters in that time.

Cincinnati took Payton, now 29, out of the A’s organization in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft but returned him to Oakland in early July last summer. The Reds thought highly enough of Payton to eventually acquire him in a trade, but he’s yet to produce much in limited chances. Payton has logged just 44 plate appearances since 2020, hitting .175/.250/.200 in that time. He’s hitting .281/.331/.446 in Triple-A this season and has a career .296/.368/.508 slash in parts of five seasons at that level.

Garcia, 24, signed a minor league deal with the Reds last December. He’s pitched in parts of two big league seasons with the Phillies and Rays but struggled to a 6.17 ERA in that time. Garcia has been sharp in Triple-A this season, however, pitching to a 3.38 ERA with a 29.6 percent strikeout rate, a 13.2 percent walk rate and a massive 70.4 percent ground-ball rate. Garcia has spent parts of three seasons in Triple-A and compiled 3.28 ERA in 57 1/3 frames.

Alaniz will be returning for his second stint with the Reds, who non-tendered him this past offseason. Alaniz has just 15 2/3 innings of work at the MLB level and has yielded 16 runs in that time. Like Garcia, though, he’s been quite effective down in Louisville this year, working to a 2.25 ERA with a very strong 31.5 percent strikeout rate against a 7.1 percent walk rate.

Reds To Place Michael Lorenzen On 10-Day Injured List

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The Reds will place right-hander Michael Lorenzen on the 10-day injured list prior to tomorrow’s game against the Mets, Cincinnati manager David Bell told reporters (including The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans).  Lorenzen suffered a right hamstring strain while running the bases as an automatic runner in last night’s 7-4 extra-innings loss to the Brewers.

The severity of the strain isn’t known, though it’s still a terrible break for Lorenzen to again be sidelined after his very first game of the season.  Lorenzen suffered a shoulder strain during Spring Training that was slow to heal, and he spent the entire first half of the season on the IL.  In his first game back, he flashed his two-way skills by tossing a scoreless inning of relief and then moving to play right field for the next frame (he struck out in his lone plate appearance).

Lorenzen’s injury marks yet another setback for a Reds bullpen that has struggled all season, as Lorenzen’s return was seen as a big upgrade to the relief corps.  Cincinnati’s front office was likely going to pursue relievers at the trade deadline even with Lorenzen back and healthy, and the club’s search will only intensify now that the veteran will miss some more time.

In the bigger picture, Lorenzen’s hopes for a strong platform year in advance of free agency have taken another hit.  Heading into the season, Lorenzen was aiming to win a job in Cincinnati’s rotation to further enhance his future free agent value by re-establishing himself as a starting pitcher.  His bid was put on hold by his shoulder injury, of course, and the Reds planned to use him strictly as a reliever (and part-time outfielder for late-game maneuverability purposes) during the second half.  Should Lorenzen’s hamstring problem linger long enough that 2021 becomes something of a lost season for the right-hander, his hopes at landing even a multi-year deal could be in jeopardy, though he’ll certainly still get attention based on his solid track record prior to 2021.

Injury Updates: Betts, Castellanos, Kluber

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Mookie Betts left tonight’s game due to right hip irritation, according to the Dodgers.  After hitting a double in the seventh inning, Betts came up limping, and the injury looked to have occurred while he was rounding first base.  The hip problem ruined what had been a banner night for Betts, as that was his third double as part of a 4-for-4 performance.

Betts is now hitting .271/.375/.503 over 373 plate appearances, as he has been red-hot over the last month following something of a slow start (by his standards) to the 2021 season.  Betts’ semi-struggles early could have been due to some minor injuries, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that the hip problem has been one of Betts’ “nagging” issues.  Roberts plans to have Betts back in the lineup as early as Monday, when the Dodgers begin a key series with the arch-rival Giants.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

  • Reds slugger Nick Castellanos left Friday night’s game after being hit in the right wrist by an Adrian Houser pitch, and Castellanos also wasn’t in tonight’s lineup.  X-rays were negative on Castellanos’ wrist, though it seems like he might get at least a day or two off for further examination.  Castellanos has been one of baseball’s best hitters this season, batting .330/.384/.583 with 18 home runs over 367 PA, and Cincinnati’s pennant race hopes would be badly stung if Castellanos had to be placed on the IL for any amount of time.
  • Corey Kluber might throw a bullpen session this coming Friday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).  A rotator cuff strain sidelined Kluber back on May 26, and while he was initially projected for an eight-week recovery period, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said last month that September might be Kluber’s likelier return date.  Given the long absence and the fact that Kluber missed almost all of the 2019-20 seasons due to injury, the veteran right-hander is likely to require multiple bullpen sessions and a minor league rehab assignment before he can get back on a big league mound, which could account for Cashman’s extended timeline.  That said, it is a good sign that Kluber is beginning to ramp up throwing activities now, so an August return might not be out of the question.  Over 53 1/3 innings prior to his rotator cuff strain, Kluber looked good in posting a 3.04 ERA, showing some flashes of his old Cy Young Award-winning form.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/16/21

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Today’s minor moves:

  • The Reds transferred infielder Alex Blandino from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list before this evening’s game against the Brewers. The move created 40-man roster space for the previously reported activation of right-hander Michael Lorenzen from the 60-day IL. Blandino was placed on the IL on June 6 with a fractured right hand. Today’s transfer rules him out until the first week of August at the earliest.

Pitching Notes: Kimbrel, Cubs, Braves, Lorenzen, Gray, Astros, MadBum

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The Cubs dealt Joc Pederson to the Braves tonight, though a prominent former Brave wasn’t part of the talks between the two teams, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) reports that Craig Kimbrel’s availability wasn’t discussed.  Kimbrel would obviously have been a major boost for an inconsistent Atlanta bullpen, but Kimbrel is both considerably more expensive than Pederson and the Cubs surely would’ve demanded a much higher prospect return for the All-Star closer.  Acquiring Kimbrel also would have been a clear all-in move for a Braves team that is still only 44-45, and perhaps only in contention by dint of a congested NL East.  It’s possible that Atlanta might still pivot and start selling by the trade deadline if the team sinks further under the .500 mark over the next two weeks.

More on various hurlers around the sport…

  • Kicking off the second half with a big series against the Brewers, the Reds expect to activate Michael Lorenzen and Sonny Gray from the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer writes.  After missing the entire season due to a shoulder strain, Lorenzen will likely be activated prior to Friday’s game, while Gray (rib cage strain) will start Sunday after missing only the minimum 10 days on the IL.  Lorenzen’s return will be welcomed by a Reds bullpen that has struggled all season, while Gray has pitched well despite three separate IL trips that have limited him to 62 innings.  Cincinnati placed reliever Art Warren on the 10-day IL today due to a left oblique strain, but a 40-man roster move will be necessary to reinstate Lorenzen from the 60-day IL.
  • The Astros are “going to entertain the idea of [acquiring] starting pitchers” at the trade deadline, GM James Click told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy are battling sore shoulders, Framber Valdez’s control has been shaky, and Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier might be approaching innings thresholds.  These issues have combined to turn what had been an area of strength for the Astros into a potential concern down the stretch.  On the plus side, relievers Josh James, Austin Pruitt, and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments and are expected to be activated from the injured list soon, with James and Pruitt coming perhaps as early as Friday.  That trio and perhaps Garcia could all fortify the bullpen from within, allowing Houston to pursue rotation help.
  • Madison Bumgarner will be activated from the 10-day injured list to start the Diamondbacks’ game with the Cubs on Friday, according to multiple reporters (including The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan).  Bumgarner has been out of action due to shoulder inflammation since June 3, continuing what has thus far been a disastrous tenure in Arizona for the veteran lefty.  Since signing a five-year, $85MM free agent deal in the 2019-20 offseason, Bumgarner has battled injuries and posted only a 6.04 ERA over 101 1/3 innings.  It is very unlikely that a team will come calling about Bumgarner at the deadline given the size of his remaining contract, so the left-hander’s second half will just be about staying healthy and posting some solid numbers as a platform for better things next year.

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
Blue Jays 47.80% (8,909 votes)
Yankees 23.67% (4,413 votes)
Angels 11.68% (2,177 votes)
Mariners 8.43% (1,571 votes)
Indians 8.42% (1,570 votes)
Total Votes: 18,640

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
Reds 55.88% (11,382 votes)
Phillies 19.96% (4,066 votes)
Braves 18.21% (3,710 votes)
Cubs 5.95% (1,211 votes)
Total Votes: 20,369

 

(poll link for app users)

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/8/21

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Today’s minor moves:

  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve acquired outfield prospect Darlin Guzman from the Reds as the player to be named later in the teams’ January deal that sent right-hander Héctor Pérez to Cincinnati. Guzman joined the Reds during the 2017-18 international signing period and spent the next two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He hit .306/.361/.537 over 391 plate appearances in the DSL and was with the Reds’ Arizona Complex League team in 2021. The 20-year-old has never appeared on a Reds system ranking at Baseball America or FanGraphs. Pérez, meanwhile, was outrighted off the 40-man roster last month after struggling with Triple-A Louisville. He remains in the organization but hasn’t made a big league appearance with Cincinnati.
  • The Cubs announced that catcher Taylor Gushue has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Iowa. The 27-year-old does not have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization as high minors depth. A longtime Nationals farmhand, Gushue signed with the Cubs over the winter and has hit .272/.328/.440 over 137 plate appearances with Iowa this season. That earned him his first promotion to the major leagues last week, but he was designated for assignment having appeared in just two games when Chicago signed Robinson Chirinos to a big league deal.
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