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2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Mets Claim Heath Hembree, Transfer Jacob deGrom To 60-Day Injured List

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The Mets have claimed right-handed reliever Heath Hembree off waivers from the Reds, per a club announcement. Ace Jacob deGrom was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. The Mets have already been without deGrom for more than a month, and he wasn’t expected back until September anyhow. He’ll be eligible to return on Sept. 15.

Hembree, 32, was serving as the Reds’ closer earlier this summer before a rough few weeks caused his ERA to balloon up to a dismal 6.38 mark. Unsightly as that ERA is, Hembree was lights-out from late June through late July, pitching to a 1.42 ERA with a 19-to-5 K/BB ratio and racking up seven saves in a span of 12 2/3 innings. That hot streak obviously came in a very small sample, but it’s worth noting — and this is likely what drew the Mets to him — that Hembree has been among the game’s best in terms of missing bats all season.

Among the 321 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year, Hembree’s 38 percent strikeout rate is the game’s seventh-highest mark. He’s tied for 15th in that same set of pitchers with a 27.4 K-BB% and sits 18th with a 2.84 SIERA. He’s largely been done in by the long ball this season, serving up 10 dingers in 44 2/3 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Seven of those home runs have come at the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, however, where Hembree’s ERA is north of 8.00. He’s been much better on the road, and a change of scenery could do him some good.

As for deGrom, the Mets said last week that he’d go at least another two weeks without throwing, so it’s unlikely he’d have been able to return much sooner than Sept. 15 anyhow. Once he starts throwing, he’ll need to build up sufficient arm strength to get back to the mound and hopefully make a few starts for the Mets down the stretch as they look to pull out of the spiral that has seen them fall from a comfortable lead in the NL East to a sub-.500 record and a five-game gap between the now-division-leading Braves.

Rangers, Assistant GM Shiraz Rehman Part Ways

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The Rangers and assistant general manager Shiraz Rehman have parted ways, the team announced. (Levi Weaver and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the news shortly before the announcement).

“After discussions with Shiraz, we mutually agreed that it is best to part ways at this time,” president of baseball operations Jon Daniels said in a statement. “Shiraz has expressed a desire to seek a new opportunity where he can utilize his experiences and take on a more significant role than we currently have available. Since joining the Rangers, Shiraz played an important role in our process to shape the future of the franchise and ensure on-field success for the years ahead. The Rangers want to thank Shiraz for his contributions and wish him the very best for the future.”

Rehman had been with Texas since October 2018, coming over after five seasons as an assistant GM with the Cubs. Rehman was one of three AGM’s in Texas, pairing with Josh Boyd and Mike Daly as the top lieutenants for Daniels and general manager Chris Young.

Young was hired as GM last December, which Rehman indicated likely played some role in today’s decision. “I’m extremely grateful to ownership — Ray Davis and Neil Leibman —  and baseball leadership – Jon Daniels, Chris Young and Chris Woodward — for the opportunity to work for the Rangers organization, and have enjoyed my 3 years with the team.  … Ultimately, the redistribution of front office responsibilities after (Young) came aboard this winter left me with a less fulfilling and impactful role, so we agreed to part ways at this time,” Rehman told Weaver, who hears from others in the organization that Rehman was dismissed as opposed to stepping away as part of a mutual decision. “I am looking forward to my next challenge and wish the entire front office, the coaches, the players, and Rangers fans all the best in the future.”

Interestingly, Weaver reports that the Rangers and Mets have spoken with Reds’ director of pitching Kyle Boddy about a potential position for next season, although he hears that those discussions are unrelated to the team’s parting ways with Rehman. Boddy’s contract with Cincinnati expires at the end of the year, according to Weaver.

Boddy rose to prominence as the founder of Driveline Baseball, an independent data-driven training facility that counts numerous MLB pitchers among its clients. Weaver notes that Young worked out at Driveline during his days as a player, and Boddy consulted with the Rangers on their 2018 amateur draft, so he’s surely familiar with the top decision-makers in the Texas front office.

Reds Place Nick Senzel On Injured List

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AUGUST 19: The Reds have reversed their option on Senzel and placed him back on the injured list, Krall told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) this evening. While the club initially believed him to be healthy, further examination revealed some fluid in his surgically-repaired knee. A new timetable for Senzel’s return has not yet been defined.

AUGUST 15: Mike Freeman has been designated for assignment by the Reds, the team has announced. His roster spot was needed for Nick Senzel, who was activated off the 60-day IL and optioned to Triple-A.

Freeman was traded from Cleveland to Cincinnati in the offseason and has appeared in 37 games for the Reds this season. He’s served as a utilityman for the club, spending some time at each position except for right field and catcher. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to provide much value with his bat. In 65 plate appearances, the 34-year-old has a slash line of .186/.262/.186, producing a wRC+ of 23. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, he’ll be able to elect free agency, since he’s been outrighted in the past.

Senzel underwent knee surgery in May and began rehabbing two weeks ago. He hasn’t yet lived up to the prospect hype the preceded his 2019 call-up. Since then, he has played in 163 big league games, with a line of .246/.308/.396, for a wRC+ of 83. Reds general manager Nick Krall tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic that they plan on continuing to use him at multiple positions as he tries to work his way back onto the big league roster.

Reds Place Jesse Winker On Injured List

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AUGUST 19: Cincinnati manager David Bell told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) this afternoon the team does not expect Winker will be ready to return when first eligible next Thursday. Bell didn’t provide any specifics as to when the Reds do believe Winker can make it back on the field, although he noted that the 28-year-old hasn’t yet begun baseball activities.

AUGUST 16: The Reds have placed outfielder Jesse Winker on the 10-day injured list, per a team announcement. Top infield prospect Jose Barrero has been summoned from Triple-A Louisville to take his spot on the active roster.

Winker, 28 tomorrow, recently missed three games due to this same intercostal discomfort and aggravated the injury upon returning to the lineup yesterday. He exited the game after just three innings.

Even a 10-day absence for Winker would be a notable blow to the Reds, who trail the Padres by two and a half games in the hunt for the second National League Wild Card spot. The All-Star left fielder has long been a quality bat but is in the midst of a breakout 2021 campaign. Through 481 plate appearances, he’s logged a .307/.395/.560 batting line with a career-high 24 home runs, an NL-best 32 doubles, a triple and a stolen base. Winker’s 235 total bases lead the National League.

The Reds are deep in outfield options to help cover Winker’s absence. Aristides Aquino and Shogo Akiyama figure to step up and shoulder the bulk of the extra work, joining Tyler Naquin and Nick Castellanos in the outfield. Even with that depth in place, however, there’s no means of simply replacing Winker’s production, which ranks among the game’s elite. His 152 wRC+ is tied for sixth among qualified hitters.

Cincinnati could have called up rehabbing outfielder Nick Senzel, but the presence of Aquino and Akiyama gives them enough cover in the outfield that they’re comfortable turning to a more concrete answer at another position of need: shortstop. The Reds have been playing utilityman Kyle Farmer there with regularity in recent weeks, but his bat has gone cold over his past 10 games. Barrero, meanwhile, is regarded as one of the game’s top overall prospects, ranking 15th on Baseball America’s midseason Top 100. He’ll allow Farmer to return to a utility role and bounce around the diamond.

Even for those who’d argue that outfield is still a bigger need given Farmer’s play over the past six weeks, the simple fact is that Barrero has outperformed Senzel in Louisville. Senzel is hitting .286/.316/.429 in 10 games since setting out on his rehab assignment, while Barrero has turned in a .303/.378/.532 batting line on the season. Since the calendar flipped to August, he’s posted an excellent .292/.358/.625 slash. Given their status as the top threat to the Padres’ hold on the second Wild Card spot, the Reds are understandably going with the more productive of the two potential replacement options for Winker. Senzel still figures to return before long — barring a setback — but Barrero has earned the spot for now.

This will be the second big league look for Barrero, who went by Jose Garcia after he initially signed but adopted his mother’s last name as a tribute to her after she passed away earlier this season. Barrero went 13-for-67 without an extra-base hit in 68 plate appearances for the Reds during the 2020 shortened season, although some struggles were to be expected after he made the jump from A-ball to the Majors due to the lack of a minor league season last summer. Now, with some additional seasoning under his belt, the Reds will get a better look at a player whom they hope can emerge as their shortstop of the future.

Barrero accrued 92 days of Major League service time during the 2020 season — service time was prorated last year — and would need another 80 days to reach a full year. There are only 49 days left on the 2021 schedule, so he can’t reach that threshold, though if he’s in the big leagues to stay he’ll quite likely qualify as a Super Two player now (assuming the current Super Two and arbitration systems remain in place in the next collective bargaining agreement). As it stands, he’d be controllable via arbitration all the way through the 2027 season.

Nate Jones Retires

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Veteran right-hander Nate Jones, who pitched with both the Braves and the Dodgers earlier this season, is retiring from baseball, agent Joe Speed of Sterling Sports Management announced today on Twitter.

Nate Jones | Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

A fifth-round pick of the White Sox back in 2007, Jones was never considered to be one of their very best prospects, topping out at No. 22 on Baseball America’s rankings in the 2011-12 offseason, but he nevertheless emerged as one of the team’s most talented relievers for several years. The hard-throwing, 6’5″ righty debuted as a 26-year-old in 2012 and immediately cemented himself as a fixture in the bullpen when he pitched 71 2/3 innings of 2.39 ERA ball as a rookie.

Jones enjoyed a solid sophomore season, pitching another 78 innings of 4.15 ERA ball but battled some hip and back soreness along the way. Continued back troubles sidelined him early in 2014, and the right-hander unfortunately suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow while working his way back from that back issue. He appeared in only two games in ’14, didn’t record an out, and missed much of the 2015 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Jones returned in early August in 2015 and pitched well enough down the stretch that the White Sox were comfortable signing him to a three-year deal. The contract provided Jones with an $8MM guarantee, covering his second and third years of arbitration and his first free-agent season before giving the South Siders a pair of club options. Jones had pitched just 168 2/3 innings over his first four seasons but had been generally excellent when healthy enough to take the field; there was sense in the contract for both parties.

The contract paid off in spades the very next season, as Jones produced what would prove to be the best season of a 10-year career. Over the life of 70 2/3 innings, he pitched to a superlative 2.29 ERA with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and a 5.5 percent walk rate.

Injuries, however, hobbled Jones for the next several seasons. He was always effective when able to take the mound, but he spent time on the injured list due to elbow and forearm injuries throughout much of the 2017-19 seasons. His 2.94 ERA in 52 innings across those three seasons underscored how talented the right-hander was, but Jones ultimately threw his last pitch for the Sox early in the 2019 season and underwent surgery to repair a flexor tear in his right forearm. Chicago traded him to the Rangers at season’s end, but it proved to be a procedural move; the Rangers acquired international bonus money alongside Jones and simply paid the buyout on his 2020 option.

Jones signed with the Reds in the 2019-20 offseason and appeared in 21 games with diminished results. It was a similar story in both Atlanta and Los Angeles this year, as Jones once-97.5 mph sinker clocked in at an average of 93.6 mph between the Braves and Dodgers.

It’s unfortunate that we never got to see Jones enjoy a prolonged, healthy run in the bullpen for the Sox or another club, as he clearly had all the makings of an elite late-inning reliever. He’ll wrap up his playing days with a career 22-16 record, a 3.45 ERA, 78 holds, nine saves, 76 games finished and 355 strikeouts over the life of 329 innings and nearly $15MM in career earnings.

Reds Designate Heath Hembree For Assignment

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The Reds have designated right-hander Heath Hembree for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for fellow right-hander Tony Santillan, who has been recalled from Triple-A Louisville, per a team announcement. Cincinnati also reinstated right-hander R.J. Alaniz from the injured list and optioned him to Triple-A. Meanwhile, the Reds announced earlier in the day that infielder Mike Freeman cleared waivers and has been assigned outright to Louisville.

Hembree’s DFA comes on the heels of a catastrophic outing in which he was tagged for five runs in just two-thirds of an inning. The Reds might’ve been able to look past that meltdown had he continued pitching as well as he did throughout the month of July, but the past several weeks have been a struggle for the veteran Hembree, to say the least. He’s yielded runs in seven of his past nine outings — a total of 13 in a span of just seven innings.

That dismal slump has ballooned Hembree’s ERA to a grisly 6.38 mark, but Hembree has previously been more solid out of the Cincinnati ’pen and spent several weeks pitching quite well as their primary closer while top relievers Tejay Antone, Michael Lorenzen and Lucas Sims were on the injured list. (Antone is still on the IL.) Hembree logged seven saves and posted a 1.42 ERA with a 19-to-5 K/BB ratio from June 28 through July 24. He’d had some early struggles as well, but that strong stretch dropped his ERA into the low-4.00s and gave the impression he’d righted the ship.

Clearly, that wasn’t the case, but there’s still plenty of reason that another club might be intrigued by Hembree. Among the 321 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year, Hembree’s 38 percent strikeout rate is the game’s seventh-highest mark. He’s tied for 15th in that same set of pitchers with a 27.4 K-BB% and sits 18th with a 2.84 SIERA.

Hembree has been done in by a ghastly 51.3 percent strand rate that sits more than 20 percent worse than the league average. That’s in part due to a sky-high 2.13 HR/9 mark; he’s yielded 10 long balls in his 44 2/3 innings this season, although seven of them have come in his hitter-friendly home park. Another club with a more spacious home setting might take a look at Hembree’s K-BB profile and generally solid track record from 2015-19 and opt to place a claim on outright waivers. His contract comes with a very reasonable $800K base salary in the Majors, though he’s already unlocked another $225K of incentives on top of that base, I’m told. Hembree would be an affordable change-of-scenery candidate for a team in need of bullpen depth — be it on a waiver claim or on a new contract if goes unclaimed and reaches the market.

Blue Jays Acquire Mallex Smith

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The Blue Jays have acquired outfielder Mallex Smith from the Reds, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Presumably, as is the case with most post-deadline swaps, the Jays simply sent cash back to Cincinnati in return.

Smith was eligible to be traded by virtue of the fact that he’s playing the 2021 season on a minor league deal and had not been summoned to the Majors or previously outrighted by another club this season. The 28-year-old opened the season on a minor league deal with the Mets but didn’t appear in a game for them. He suffered a broken foot early in his tenure with the organization and was cut loose in mid-June. He signed with Cincinnati quickly thereafter and was soon ready to suit up for the Reds’ top affiliate in Louisville.

It hasn’t been an especially productive season so far for Smith in Triple-A, as he’s posted just a .231/.296/.292 batting line in 22 games and 71 plate appearances since healing up enough to take the field. He’s swiped four bases in six tries with Louisville, and his ability to continue piling up those steals is his primary asset.

From 2017-19, Smith batted .262/.332/.367 in 356 games with the Rays and Mariners, connecting on 10 home runs, 54 doubles, 23 triples and stealing 102 bags in 128 attempts (79.7 percent). He posted back-to-back 40-steal seasons in 2018-19 — including a ’19 season in which his 46 stolen bases led all of Major League Baseball.

Smith isn’t likely to be an immediate option for the Jays in the outfield. Toronto has Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Corey Dickerson and Randal Grichuk all on the Major League roster at the moment, so outfield isn’t exactly a position of need. That said, rosters will expand to 28 players in September, and Smith will not only provide some cover in the event of injuries but also a potential pinch-running and defensive specialist if the Jays see fit to use one of those extra roster spots in that manner.

Injury Notes: Winker, Lindor, Phillies, Brewers

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Jesse Winker’s return to the Reds lineup was short-lived, as the outfielder left today’s game prior to the bottom of the third inning.  Winker went 0-for-2 with two flyouts in his first two plate appearances before re-aggravating the mild intercostal strain that sidelined him for Cincinnati’s previous two games.  A previous MRI didn’t reveal any damage, though manager David Bell told reporters (including The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans) that Winker will be re-evaluated prior to tomorrow’s game against the Cubs.

While the Reds are in the thick of the wild card race, the team will surely be careful with one of their top bats to prevent a longer-term injury.  Winker has hit .307/.395/.560 with 24 home runs over 481 plate appearances this season, and he entered today’s action as the NL leader in doubles (32) and total bases (235).  The Reds are in the midst of a grueling stretch of 29 games over 30 days, so there isn’t any built-in time for Winker to really get a break, and a trip to the injured list might be necessary to fully correct the issue.

More on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • Francisco Lindor participated in just about a full range of baseball activities prior to today’s game against the Dodgers, and Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson) that Lindor could potentially be activated off the injured list when New York begins its next homestand on August 24.  Lindor will travel with the Mets on their road trip and continue to work out, so the club will monitor his progress and then determine whether a minor league rehab assignment is necessary, or if Lindor could return to the active roster without the benefit of any minor league tuneup games.  A Grade 2 oblique strain sent Lindor to the IL on July 17, so even a return by that Mets homestand would be a pretty decent turn-around time for the shortstop, given how more severe oblique problems can sometimes linger.
  • Zach Eflin (right knee tendinitis) threw a live batting practice session today, while Vince Velasquez (right middle finger blister) and Sam Coonrod (forearm tendinitis) threw live BP sessions yesterday.  The Phillies pitchers are at different stages in their recoveries, and Velasquez and Coonrod will each begin minor league rehab assignments on Tuesday.  Eflin’s next step could be another simulated session before he starts his own rehab assignment, though the right-hander told NBC Sports’ Jim Salisbury and other reporters that he “felt great” during today’s 28-pitch session.
  • The Brewers are almost all the way out of a COVID-19 outbreak on their roster, and two of the remaining sidelined players (Adrian Houser and Jandel Gustave) are nearing returns.  As Brewers manager Craig Counsell told The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Gustave is working out with the team and Houser is expected to join the club when the Brew Crew begin a series with the Cardinals on Tuesday.

Trevor Bauer Was Subject Of Previous Protection Order

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Trevor Bauer was the subject of an ex parte temporary civil stalking protection order sought by and granted to an Ohio woman in June of 2020, according to a report by Gus Garcia-Roberts and Molly Hensley-Clancy of The Washington Post. The order was in effect until dismissed by the petitioner that July 23. According to the Post’s report:

“An Ohio woman sought the order in June 2020 after repeated threats from the then-Cincinnati Reds pitcher, according to her lawyer and records separately obtained by The Post. Photographs independently obtained by The Post also show bruises on the woman’s face and blood in her eyes, which her attorney said was caused by Bauer punching and choking her during sex without consent. Those allegations are similar to ones made by a woman in Los Angeles this summer when she applied for a temporary restraining order.”

The Post report details an alleged incident from 2017, when Bauer was with the Indians.  The authors elaborate:

“A police report obtained by The Post shows that in 2017, during an incident at Bauer’s apartment, the Ohio woman attempted to show officers photos of injuries to her eyes that she said were caused by Bauer, who played for Cleveland at the time.” The woman’s attorney tells the Post she specified to police at the time that those injuries were the alleged result of Bauer choking her without consent during sex. According to the Post, Bauer was the one who initially called police that night, telling officers the woman had assaulted him — an allegation she denied. Additionally:

“The Post also obtained copies of messages Bauer allegedly sent the woman, which her lawyers said prompted her to seek an order of protection. ’I don’t feel like spending time in jail for killing someone,’ reads one. ’And that’s what would happen if I saw you again.'” The Post also obtained photos of injuries the woman sustained, which her lawyer tells The Post she says “were from Bauer striking her without her consent during sex in 2018,” in the words of the Post writers.

The ex parte nature of the order indicates it was granted without hearing from Bauer’s side. (That’s also true of the temporary restraining order granted against Bauer in California to which the Post alluded). Ohio law allows petitioners to obtain a restraining order against individuals who have caused the petitioner to believe they “will cause physical harm to the other person or a family or household member of the other person or cause mental distress to the other person or a family or household member of the other person,” so long as the petitioner can demonstrate good cause — including, but not limited to, a threat of bodily harm. Court records don’t specify any allegations made against Bauer at that hearing.

MLB placed Bauer on paid administrative leave in July 2021 after the Pasadena Police Department began investigating the assault allegations made by the woman in California. Bauer’s administrative leave period was extended through August 20 this week, an agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association. The parties are set for a multi-day hearing (during which Bauer will have an opportunity to respond to the woman’s allegations) next week on the status of the California TRO.

Under the terms of the joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy, Major League Baseball has the authority to issue discipline regardless of whether criminal charges are ultimately filed.  An MLB spokesperson is quoted in the piece as saying that “MLB takes these and all allegations very seriously,” but that they can’t comment because of the ongoing investigation. The Post reports that an MLB investigator was seeking information related to the 2017 incident in early July.

Chelsea Janes, also of The Washington Post, says that the Dodgers declined to comment on whether or not they were aware of this previous allegation before signing Bauer in February of 2021.  A spokesman for the Indians told the Post the team didn’t have any knowledge of the incident in 2017.

Bauer, on his own Twitter account, addressed the allegations with a statement from himself as well as one from his representatives.  Additionally, “In a statement to The Post, Bauer’s lawyer and agent, Jon Fetterolf, and agent Rachel Luba called the allegations of physical abuse against Bauer ’categorically false.'”

For the full details, read the Washington Post article and Bauer’s response.

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