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NL Central Notes: Suzuki, Reds, Cruz

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The Cubs surprised much of the baseball world with their play in recent weeks, which pushed them to add third baseman Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline rather than deal away rental players like Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman. With the focus now firmly on a push toward making the playoffs in 2023, the club appears to be shortening the leash of struggling players.

That includes outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who the Cubs spent nearly $100MM to add to the club’s roster prior to the 2022 campaign between Suzuki’s five-year, $85MM contract and the posting fee owed to the Hiroshima Carp as payment for Suzuki’s services. In 111 games with the Cubs last year, Suzuki played solidly in his rookie season, with a .262/.336/.433 slash line that was good for a wRC+ of 116. Suzuki began the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to an oblique issue, but got off to a fantastic start when he was back in action, slashing .293/.385/.487 with a 12.6% walk rate in 174 trips to the plate through the end of May.

Unfortunately, Suzuki’s offense has cratered since then, as he’s mustered just a .214/.281/.310 slash line in 210 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to June. That’s brought his overall campaign below league average by measure of wRC+ (96) in 2023, and while he’s played excellent defense in right field, Cubs manager David Ross indicated to reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma) recently that Suzuki would not be an everyday player going forward until he gets things back on track. “He knows he needs to work on some things,” Ross said of Suzuki, “It’s hard to do that in-game. We’ll give him some time, and he’ll be back in there when we feel like he can help us win games.”

It seems that journeyman outfielder Mike Tauchman, who came to the Cubs on a minor league deal during the offseason but has impressed with a .277/.371/.431 slash line (121 wRC+) in 238 trips to the plate since joining the roster back in May, will receive the lion’s share of playing time in right field, with Suzuki making occasional starts when he or Ian Happ have a day off or when Cody Bellinger moves from center field to first base. The Cubs are 2.5 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central and 1.0 game back of Cincinnati for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play today.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Reds right-handers Justin Dunn and Vladimir Gutierrez both have yet to throw a pitch in the majors this season, spending the entire campaign on the 60-day IL due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, respectively. Though both righties have been starting pitchers throughout their careers to this point, each figures to come out of the bullpen upon returning to the big leagues, manager David Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Gutierrez had a solid rookie season with the Reds in 2021 during which he pitched to a roughly league average ERA of 4.74 (99 ERA+) but struggled badly in 36 2/3 innings of work last year prior to going under the knife in July of last year. Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who has yet to find success a starter in the big leagues, with a 4.44 ERA and 6.23 FIP in 133 2/3 career innings of work in the majors.
  • Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz looks to be a rising star and one of the most exciting youngsters in the game today, with a 108 wRC+, 13 steals and 19 home runs in 410 trips to the plate so far in his career. The 6’7” shortstop was expected by many to challenge for the 30/30 club in his first full season as a big leaguer in 2023, but was unfortunately sidelined by an ankle injury just days into the 2023 campaign. While he won’t be able to play in his first full major league season until 2024, he could still finish the 2023 campaign in the majors nonetheless, as Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington told MLBNetwork Radio’s Jim Duquette that Cruz is expected to begin a rehab assignment later this month, with a goal of returning to the majors in September. The Pirates have started a youth movement while Cruz has been on the shelf, and he’ll be greeted by fellow youngsters Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Quinn Priester upon his return to the big league club.

Reds Promote Lyon Richardson

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The Reds announced this morning that they had recalled right-hander Lyon Richardson from Triple-A. Richardson, 23, is slated to make his big league debut when he takes the ball this afternoon for a start against the Nationals. To make room for Richardson on the active roster, right-hander Daniel Duarte was optioned to Triple-A.

Richardson, 23, entered the 2023 campaign as the Reds 13th best prospect according to Fangraphs, though five of the prospects ranked ahead of him have graduated to the big leagues since then. Richardson missed the entire 2022 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery but has broken back onto the scene in a big way this season, advancing from Single-A to Triple-A throughout the year. Overall, Richardson boasts a phenomenal 1.86 ERA in 58 innings of work across 19 starts with a staggering 35.2% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate.

That limited innings total despite regular starts throughout the 2023 campaign comes as a result of the Reds seemingly being careful not to overwork Richardson as he returns from surgery; his pitch count in each start has typically been capped around 50 pitches, with his peak this season standing at just 76. Should Richardson stick on the roster beyond today’s start, those pitch count limitations would seem to indicate he’s more likely to be limited to multi-inning relief appearances rather than continue as a member of the starting rotation going forward.

Making room for Richardson on the active roster is right-hander Daniel Duarte, who has posted a 4.08 ERA (116 ERA+) in 17 2/3 innings of work with the Reds this season, albeit with a less inspiring 5.48 FIP. Duarte heads back to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville for the time being, where he owns a 3.38 ERA in 27 appearances this season, but figures to contribute in Cincinnati down the stretch as a young, optionable bullpen piece.

Reds Place Jake Fraley On 10-Day Injured List

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2:58PM: Reds manager David Bell spoke with The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith and other reporters about Fraley’s injury, saying a play in Thursday’s game “re-aggravated” the issue and “pushed him to a point where it’s a different type of pain.”  In terms of when the outfielder might be back, “we still haven’t pinpointed a time frame, which is actually good.  He’s still trying to get all the information.  In [Fraley’s] mind, he’s trying to get back in a few weeks, which is great.  That’s how I’m going to think about it.”

10:10AM: The Reds placed outfielder Jake Fraley on the 10-day injured list due to a stress fracture in his left fourth toe.  The club also announced that outfielder TJ Hopkins was called up from Triple-A, and that right-hander Lyon Richardson was added to the taxi squad in advance of his planned start on Sunday.

The IL placement is retroactive to August 4, as Fraley didn’t play in Cincinnati’s 6-3 loss to Washington yesterday.  The nature and severity of the injury isn’t yet known, but it would certainly seem like Fraley will miss well beyond 10 days, leaving a notable hole in the Reds lineup.  This is the second straight year that Fraley has been sidelined by a toe injury, as while rehabbing a knee injury in 2022, his time on the IL was extended due to a toe issue suffered during rehab.

Between the injuries and the fact that the Reds use Fraley almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, he has played in only 160 games since Cincinnati acquired the outfielder as part of the Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker trade with the Mariners in March 2022.  When he has been able to play, however, Fraley has been a productive bat, hitting .261/.345/.467 with 27 homers over 574 plate appearances — that works out to a 116 wRC+ over essentially the equivalent of one full season.  Playing both corner outfield positions, Fraley has been a very useful platoon option for the Reds to mix and match in their outfield.

Hopkins has a .367 OPS over 25 PA in his rookie season, plus as a right-handed bat, he’s an imperfect fill-in option for Fraley’s specific role.  Nick Senzel and Stuart Fairchild (also right-handed hitters) figure to get more playing time in Fraley’s absence, or the Reds could continue to give Spencer Steer regular looks in left field.

As much as the Reds’ influx of young talent was seemingly going to create a crunch for playing time, injuries have now provided an unfortunate solution to that issue.  Fraley joins Jonathan India on the 10-day IL, and while India was at least hopeful of a quick return, Cincinnati is now missing two experienced bats in the midst of a playoff race.  The Reds are on a four-game losing streak, and are 9-12 since the All-Star break.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:

Check out our past episodes!

Dodgers “In Hot Pursuit” Of Eduardo Rodriguez; Padres Interested

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With less than seven hours to go until the trade deadline, the Tigers hold a pair of key starting pitcher cards in southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and righty Michael Lorenzen.  Yesterday morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said the pair would “definitely” be traded, and this morning MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand said the Tigers are “expected to trade” both.

Asking prices appear to be high, according to Feinsand, though we rarely hear asking prices described any other way.  Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the same, after talking to rival executives.

The Dodgers “are in hot pursuit” of Rodriguez, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Jack Harris of the L.A. Times spoke to “multiple people with knowledge of the team’s thinking unauthorized to speak publicly,” and then wrote yesterday that the club’s Plan B after Justin Verlander “could be” a pursuit of Rodriguez.  Harris said the Dodgers “had maintained interest” in E-Rod as of Monday afternoon.  The Dodgers added Lance Lynn to their embattled rotation in a trade with the White Sox a few days ago.

Never a team to sit on the sidelines with good players available – even five games out of the wild card – the Padres are “said to be high” on Rodriguez and “could make a push” for him, reports Feinsand.  The Padres seem to have some level of interest in Verlander as well, according to Heyman.

Rodriguez, 30, owns a 2.95 ERA on the season with a 25.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 40.5% groundball rate.  He missed all of June with a left index finger pulley rupture.  He’s pitched to an unpleasant 5.66 ERA in four starts since returning from the injury, but his peripheral stats were in line with his season marks and two of the four starts were solid.  Though Rodriguez is scheduled to take on the Pirates tomorrow at PNC Park, he may have already made his last start in a Tigers uniform.

Rodriguez is owed about $4.67MM this year and $49MM from 2024-26, but he’s generally viewed as a rental given the likelihood he opts out of those final three years after the season.  While all opt-out clauses represent downside risk for an acquiring team, things would have to go quite badly for E-Rod in the next two months for him to forgo the clause.

The Orioles, who traded Rodriguez to the Red Sox in a significant deadline deal for Andrew Miller nine years ago, are a potential suitor for both Tigers starters.  Last week, Feinsand named a slew of teams that had been scouting Rodriguez.  Some have since acquired a starting pitcher, but others included the Reds, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.  On the topic of the Reds, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic wrote of “whispers Monday” about Cincinnati “being a suitable destination for Rodriguez.”

Lorenzen, 31, is a pure rental with about $2.8MM left on his contract, plus possible $250K performance bonuses for innings benchmarks.  Lorenzen represented the Tigers in the All-Star game, though he’s never been a strikeout pitcher.  He has seemingly turned a corner with some of the best control of his career, though his peripheral stats generally don’t support a 3.58 ERA.  Lorenzen has a 3.96 mark over his last nine starts, and something in that range would likely match a buyer’s expectations.  The Marlins, Orioles, Astros, and Rays have been linked to Lorenzen, but the Rays have since added Aaron Civale.

Reds Acquire Sam Moll From Athletics

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The Reds have acquired left-hander Sam Moll and international cap space from the Athletics, according to announcements from both clubs. The A’s will receive pitching prospect Joe Boyle in exchange. To make room for Moll on their 40-man roster, the Reds transferred Hunter Greene to the 60-day injured list.

Moll, 31, has spent the past three years serving as an effective reliever in the Oakland bullpen. From 2021 to the present, he’s made 106 appearances, allowing 3.65 earned runs per nine innings. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 50.6% ground ball rate are both strong, though his 11.5% walk rate is a few ticks higher than league average.

2023 has been a strange season for him, as his 4.54 ERA is higher than the previous two campaigns despite so much stuff going right in terms of his under-the-hood numbers. His 27.1% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and 52% grounder rate are each improvements over recent years. It seems a .340 batting average on balls in play and 68.2% strand rate have helped some extra runs across the plate, as his 3.25 FIP and 3.71 SIERA are both career bests.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at Moll’s season and highlighted his increasing use of a four-seam fastball. Dating back to mid-May, he has a 3.80 ERA in 23 2/3 innings, striking out 30.9% of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate, still getting grounders on over half the balls allowed in play. He has a 2.35 FIP in that time and a 2.97 SIERA.

The Reds have leapt into contention this year on the strength of their young core of position players, currently sporting a record of 58-49 that has them atop the National League Central, half a game ahead of the Brewers coming into today’s action. Left-handed relief was an obvious area for the club to add, since Alex Young has been their only southpaw reliever for much of the year. Reiver Sanmartin recently underwent UCL surgery and won’t be back any time soon. Moll is a long-term option for the Reds, as he is slated to finish this season with between two and three years of service time, meaning he can be retained for four seasons beyond the current campaign and isn’t even slated to reach arbitration until after 2024.

The A’s had little reason to hang onto Moll, despite those years of control. He didn’t establish himself at the big league level until his age-29 season and is now 31. The A’s have been leaning hard into a rebuild recently, with their 30-77 record the worst in the majors. Ownership is going to be focused on moving the team to Las Vegas in the immediate future and might not make the necessary investments to get the club back into competitive shape for a while.

Instead, they have exchanged him for Boyle, a 23-year-old right-hander who is listed at 6’7″ and 240 pounds. He was drafted by the Reds in the fifth round of the 2020 draft and got a brief professional debut in the lower levels of their farm system in 2021. He split last year between High-A and Double-A, tossing 100 2/3 innings over 23 outings with a 2.86 ERA. He struck out 36.5% of batters but also issued walks at an eyebrow-raising 20% clip. He’s made 19 more Double-A starts this year with similar results, striking out 31.5% of opponents while walking 19.4%, leading to a 4.50 ERA.

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs currently list Boyle as the #20 prospect in the Reds’ system. The book on him seems to be that he has excellent stuff but worrisome control, which matches the stat line. He has a triple-digit fastball and quality breaking stuff as well, but will need to greatly rein in his command in order to be effective.

Greene will now be ineligible to return until 60 days from his placement on the injured list due to hip pain, which was on June 18, officially keeping him out until August 17. He’s expected to make a rehab start this weekend with a planned return in late August.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Place Jonathan India On Injured List

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The Reds announced Sunday that they’ve placed second baseman Jonathan India on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The move is retroactive to Saturday. Outfielder Stuart Fairchild was recalled from Triple-A Louisville in a corresponding move.

After the move was made, India told Reds beat writers that he’s hopeful of requiring just a minimum stint (link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). India acknowledged that he’s been playing through pain for some time but reached a point where it became untenable. “I can’t make this worse,” he said. “If it’s worse, I’m out the whole year.”

In 103 games this season, India is hitting .251/.336/.409 with 14 homers, 20 doubles and a dozen steals. That includes a swoon at the plate over the past couple months. India hit .290/.376/.440 for the season’s first two months, but dating back to Memorial Day weekend he’s limped to a .211/.292/.376 slash.

With India on the shelf, Goldsmith notes that Elly De La Cruz will likely play shortstop regularly, with Matt McLain taking the majority of the reps at second base and Spencer Steer slotting in at third base. That crop of standout young hitters has been the driving factor behind the Reds’ surprising surge into postseason contention in 2023, and the depth they provide gives Cincinnati the ability to withstand a hopefully short-term absence for the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year.

India’s name has surfaced in trade rumors over the past few weeks, with the Reds reportedly willing to consider offers on him as a means of acquiring immediate, controllable rotation help. That’s different, of course, than the Reds actively shopping India — and a deal has never seemed especially likely. Now that he’s on the injured list and dealing with a plantar fasciitis diagnosis, it stands to reason that the already slim chances of a trade involving India have dwindled even further.

Reds Sign Manager David Bell To Three-Year Extension

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The Reds have signed manager David Bell to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2026 season, the team announced. His current two-year deal was set to expire at the end of this season.

Bell, 50, is in his fifth year at the helm in Cincinnati. The club went 75-87 in his first season before posting a slightly above-average showing (31-29) in the shortened 2020 schedule. Cincinnati made the expanded postseason that year but was promptly swept in the opening round without scoring a run.

It was a similar situation over a full season in ’21. The Reds hovered around .500 for the majority of the year. They were in possession of a Wild Card spot as late as mid-September but ultimately came up a bit shy of the postseason. After finishing 83-79, Cincinnati cut payroll and kicked off a retool.

The Reds dealt away a number of veterans both leading up to and immediately out of the lockout. A disastrous April portended a brutal 2022 season that saw Cincinnati lose 100 games for just the second time in franchise history. The Reds continued to deal away veterans at the deadline. After another relatively quiet offseason, few expected Cincinnati to make much noise coming into 2023.

After a middling first six weeks, the Reds have gotten hot. They’re 30-19 since the start of June, entering play Friday. They sit eight games above .500 overall and are firmly in the mix for a playoff spot. The Reds are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re in possession of a spot in a tightly-contested Wild Card picture.

Whether this’ll result in the second playoff appearance of Bell’s tenure is to be determined. Yet it’s hard not to view the first four months of this season as anything other than a strong success. Cincinnati has graduated a number of young players from the farm system. The likes of Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and Spencer Steer have been excellent from the jump. Elly De La Cruz has had an inconsistent first month in the majors but is one of the sport’s most talented young players. Injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have forced Cincinnati to use a patchwork rotation for most of the year, but they’ve managed to overcome that.

Now, the club finds itself in position to add to the roster within the next five days. Unsurprisingly, ownership and the front office appear pleased with the organization’s progress. They’ll ensure continuity atop the dugout by keeping their skipper from starting the offseason unsigned. Bell is the seventh-longest tenured active manager in the National League. The Reds have a 307-343 regular season record since he was hired but are trending towards a third above-.500 showing out of five.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds’ Reiver Sanmartin Undergoes UCL Surgery

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Reds reliever Reiver Sanmartin underwent surgery to repair his UCL earlier this month, the team informed reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). It isn’t clear if he underwent a full Tommy John procedure or something like the modified internal brace surgery, but it appears as if his season is over.

Sanmartin is already on the 60-day injured list. He landed on the shelf at the start of May with a stress reaction in his elbow. Apparently, there was also ligament damage that needed to be corrected. Assuming he’s done for the season, he’ll remain on the 60-day IL through year’s end.

The 27-year-old has pitched in parts of three seasons with Cincinnati. He owns a 5.77 ERA through 82 2/3 career frames. Sanmartin has induced grounders at a lofty 53.5% clip but posted worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. He’s controllable through 2028, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Cincinnati waived him at the start of the offseason rather than carry him on the 40-man roster throughout the winter.

The Reds provided updates on a few other injured pitchers (via Rosecrans). Hunter Greene will begin a minor league rehab stint next weekend; the club hopes he’ll be ready for the majors by August 20. Nick Lodolo is targeting an MLB return at the end of next month, beginning a rehab stint at a similar time as Greene. Vladimir Gutierrez and Tejay Antone are each beginning rehab work of their own after missing the entire season to date.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

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The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

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