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AL Central Notes: Mize, Indians, Pineda

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Tigers fans are holding their collective breaths as top prospect Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, exited last night’s Double-A start with an apparent injury (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). After a third-inning pitch — a fastball that was clocked at 85-86 mph, per Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News (Twitter link) — catcher Kade Scivicque went to the mound and called out the training staff and skipper Mike Rabelo. Mize departed the game at that point. There’s been no formal update on his condition, though Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle tweets that Mize didn’t have his elbow or shoulder wrapped upon leaving the clubhouse and lifted his own bags onto the team’s bus — none of which seem indicative of a major injury. Presumably, the Tigers will have further updates on Mize in the near future.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Indians are facing an 11-game deficit in the AL Central, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the team won’t act as an aggressive buyer this summer unless it feels there’s a real chance at winning the division. That’s become increasingly clear in recent weeks. As the gap in the AL Central has grown, so too have rumors about the potential availability of coveted pitchers such as Trevor Bauer (controlled through 2020) and Brad Hand (signed through 2021). Morosi notes that Cleveland would be “poised” to listen to offers on that pair, as well as the resurgent Carlos Santana, barring a sudden climb back into the division race. Santana is hitting .286/.406/.530 with 14 homers and more walks (46) than strikeouts (45) through 281 plate appearances in his return to Cleveland. He’s earning $17MM in 2019 and$17.5MM in 2020, though the Mariners are on the hook for $5MM of the salary still owed to him. Santana’s contract also contains a $17.5MM club option, but that’ll be his age-35 campaign.
  • Twins righty Michael Pineda used his recent stint on the injured list to focus on the release point on his slider, he tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). “I’m focusing especially on my release point and finishing my pitches, especially my slider, because this is my pitch for swings and misses,” said Pineda. “I love my slider.” As Hayes observes, Pineda’s rediscovered confidence in the pitch was apparent. He threw just five sliders in his final start prior to landing on the injured list before uncorking 26 sliders in yesterday’s win over the Mariners. Manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson both feel that Pineda looked more impressive yesterday, and Johnson spoke of his satisfaction with the incremental improvements in Pineda’s progression back from 2017 Tommy John surgery and 2018 knee surgery. Notably, the right-hander’s velocity was up a couple miles per hour yesterday as well. A revitalized Pineda would only add another weapon to an already strong Twins club. Pineda has a 5.04 ERA in 69 2/3 innings but yielded just one run in 5 2/3 frames on Thursday.

Will The Red Sox & Indians Make The Playoffs?

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The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.

Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez,  Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.

On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez’s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.

The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley’s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.

The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?

(Poll link for app users)

The Indians Have Some Difficult Decisions Looming

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The Indians didn’t leave themselves much margin for error heading into the 2019 campaign. Ownership mandated payroll cuts in the offseason while delivering a candid and ominous “enjoy him” message to fans in reference to franchise shortstop Francisco Lindor. Cleveland’s Opening Day lineup looked more like the type you’d expect to see in early Spring Training than that of a division favorite earnestly putting forth its best options. An injury to Lindor weakened the product, but the holes throughout an order that featured Tyler Naquin hitting third were glaring.

A questionable offense was a known trade-off, though, as the Indians were built on the foundation of perhaps the game’s best collection of starting pitchers. Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber was again joined by co-aces Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, while younger righties Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber rounded out a rotation that would make nearly any team envious.

Fast forward a bit more than 10 weeks, and only Bauer and Bieber are healthy — neither with the results one might’ve expected of them. Clevinger made two starts before going down to a teres major strain that still has him on the injured list (though he’s nearing a return). Kluber suffered a fractured arm when he was struck by a comebacker. Most concerning of all, Carrasco is on the injured list due to a blood condition that has rendered him lethargic and likely contributed to some disappointing on-field results of his own. Even the Indians’ top depth option, Jefry Rodriguez, landed on the IL last week.

The result is an Indians club that trails the surprising Twins by 10.5 games in the AL Central. At 33-32, the Indians are still within 1.5 games of the second AL Wild Card spot, but it’s a tight race. Both the Yankees and the Rays are at 40-24, jostling for the AL East division lead. They’re six games up on another surprising club, the Rangers, and one of New York or Tampa Bay appears quite likely to claim that top Wild Card position. The Red Sox, Indians, Athletics, White Sox and Angels are all within four games of Texas for that second spot. Each of the Rangers, Red Sox and Athletics rather handily tops Cleveland’s -6 run differential.

The Indians are clear Wild Card contenders with a (much) longer shot to fight back into the division race, but for a club that entered the year as a strong favorite in the AL Central, their outlook is unexpectedly bleak. And given the obvious payroll constraints they faced in the offseason, it’s worth questioning whether ownership will dub the 2019 campaign somewhat of a transitional year and look to further cut some costs.

The Indians have just $48.4MM committed to next year’s payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That seems plenty manageable, but the number won’t stay at that level. Kluber’s $17.5MM option seems likely to be exercised even with his injury and some unexpected struggles (5.80 ERA in 35 2/3 innings). Lindor and Bauer headline an expensive arbitration class. Lindor already received a $10.55MM salary in his first trip through the process, and while we can’t know precisely what he’ll earn, last year’s Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts cases provide somewhat of a range. Both players earned similar numbers to Lindor in their first arbitration campaigns; Bryant had an injury-hindered year in 2018 and was bumped up to $12.9MM while Betts won the AL MVP and vaulted to $20MM. Lindor will probably check in somewhere near the midpoint — perhaps closer to Betts given that he’s been quite productive since returning from the IL. Bauer, meanwhile, will get a raise on a $13MM salary and could approach the $20MM mark.

The aforementioned $48.4MM figure could balloon to the $100MM vicinity when accounting for the salaries of Lindor, Kluber and Bauer alone. Add Clevinger’s first arbitration salary, the need to supplement the roster in other areas (one of second/third base, the bullpen, the outfield) and several league-minimum players, and it’s easy to see the payroll approaching or even exceeding the current $124MM mark despite a drop in attendance from 2018. All of this is to say that the Indians enter the summer not as the clear-cut buyers that many anticipated but as a team that could plausibly walk the line between a sell-off and some measured upgrades to the roster.

Players like Bauer and Brad Hand will be highly attractive assets who could command sizable returns. Cleveland knows it won’t sign Bauer long-term. The right-hander has been open on multiple occasions about his plans to play out his career on a series of one-year contracts (thus maximizing his salary on a year-over-year basis while also incurring a good bit of risk).

Hand is controlled through 2021 ($7.6MM in 2020, $10MM club option in 2021), and every contender in the game would love the opportunity to add him to its bullpen. His value right now is arguably as high as it was when the Indians acquired him a year ago; Hand has career-bests in ERA (0.98), FIP (1.70), xFIP (2.82) and HR/9 (0.33) at the moment and is eminently affordable. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote yesterday (subscription required) after chatting with executives around the league that other teams expect Cleveland to trade Hand with his value nearing its apex.

Moving Hand or Bauer wouldn’t do the Indians’ playoff chances any favors, but doing so could yield controllable, near-MLB-ready talent while simultaneously providing the front office with a substantial increase in payroll flexibility this winter — dollars that could be reallocated to putting forth a more complete roster. And selling either or both players wouldn’t totally eliminate the team from contention, given the rather mediocre nature of the AL Wild Card race at the moment and the rebuilding nature of the bottom of the AL Central. It’s even plausible that the Indians could trade one of those players and acquire a more affordable replacement.

For now, the focus will surely remain on narrowing the gap between them and the Twins, and it’s certainly worth highlighting that their upcoming schedule is weak. They’ll play a combined 12 games against the Royals, Tigers and Orioles between now and the All-Star break. That presents a nice opportunity to make up some ground, although the Twins also have seven games against the Royals, three against the Mariners and three against the White Sox in that same span. The Indians and Twins will meet for a three-game set in Cleveland to open the second half.

The Indians needn’t embark on a full-scale rebuild like the ones that are taking place in Kansas City and Detroit — though if they ever did go that route, the price on a player of Lindor’s caliber would be staggering — nor do they even need to throw in the towel for the 2019. But the way the season has played out thus far makes it increasingly plausible that they’ll listen to offers for Bauer or Hand — a scenario few expected back in March.

Indians Recall Adam Plutko, Option Jon Edwards

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The Cleveland Indians recalled right-hander Adam Plutko to start this afternoon’s ballgame, the team announced. Jon Edwards was optioned to Triple-A to make room on the roster.

Both pitchers have been up-and-down of late, with Plutko set for his second stint with the big league club. He went 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA over two starts before being sent back down on May 25. He earned the win with six innings of one run ball against the Orioles in his first start of the season, but took the loss with 5 1/3 rough innings his next time out against Tampa Bay. Today he takes on the Yankees at home.

Edwards made just one appearances since his last recall on June 5th, retiring both Minnesota Twins that he faced. The 31-year-old has nine appearances in total for the Indians this year, tallying two wins in that time and a 2.25 ERA.

With so many injuries among the starting staff, not least of which being the latest news of Carlos Carrasco’s troubling blood condition, Plutko should have a real opportunity to contribute in what’s been one of the more disappointing seasons around baseball. The club recently added Mitch Talbot to the minor league ranks, but all-in-all the pitching options are thinning for Cleveland. Zach Plesac earned his first career win last night against the Yankees, and he’s made an early claim to one of the rotation spots behind Trevor Bauer and Shane Bieber, but injuries have cut the ranks and made a clear path for someone like Plutko to get some serious run this season for the Indians.

Rangers Acquire Tim Federowicz, Place Isiah Kiner-Falefa On IL

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The Rangers announced today that they’ve acquired catcher Tim Federowicz from the Indians. The return is not yet known. His contract has been selected to the MLB roster.

Fellow receiver Isiah Kiner-Falefa was placed on the 10-day injured list. He’s dealing with a sprained ligament in his right middle finger, which explains the acquisition of Federowicz. To open 40-man space, the Rangers shifted injured pitching prospect Taylor Hearn to the 60-day IL.

For the Rangers, this move obviously wasn’t about installing offense into the lineup. The team simply wanted a reliable reserve catcher.

Federowicz, 31, has seen action in parts of seven MLB seasons. Through 360 plate appearances at the game’s highest level, he carries a .199/.247/.323 slash. He had been playing at Triple-A Columbus to open the year, carrying a .278/.353/.411 batting line in 103 trips to the dish.

Indians Sign Mitch Talbot

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The Indians have added right-hander Mitch Talbot on a minors deal. The Cleveland organization acquired his contract from the indy ball Sugar Land Skeeters and assigned him to Triple-A.

Talbot spent time with the Columbus Clippers last year after four seasons away from the affiliated ranks. He threw well in 17 starts and one relief appearance. Over 103 2/3 frames, Talbot ran up a 2.52 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.

With the Indians needing to backfill depth after losing another top starter in Carlos Carrasco, it’s not surprising to see them turn to the former second-round pick. Talbot, 35, is well known to the Indians from his first run with the organization back in 2010-11, during which he made forty starts. He owns a lifetime 5.30 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 232 2/3 total MLB innings.

Indians Place Carlos Carrasco On 10-Day IL Due To Blood Condition

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The Indians announced that right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been placed on the 10-day injured list, due to a non-baseball-related blood condition.  With Carrasco on the IL and outfielder Greg Allen sent down to Triple-A Columbus, right-handers Nick Goody and Jon Edwards have been called up from Triple-A to fill the two open roster spots.

The full statement from the team on Carrasco’s situation…

“Carlos was recently diagnosed with a blood condition following several weeks of feeling lethargic. While in the information-gathering stage, Carlos is stepping away from baseball activities to explore the optimal treatment and recovery options, the details of which will be conveyed at the discretion of Carlos and his family. We do not know when Carlos will rejoin the club but expect him back at some point this season. At this time, our primary concern is Carlos’ health and we will respect his wishes to keep this a private matter. We ask everyone to keep Carlos and his family in their thoughts during his challenging time.”

As by recently noted by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne, Carrasaco was enduring a tough season, with a 4.98 ERA thanks to huge spikes in his hard-contact, fly ball, and home run rates.  While the exact timeline of Carrasco’s illness isn’t known, he tossed 12 innings of shutout ball over starts on May 9 and May 14 before allowing 14 earned runs over his next three outings (17 2/3 IP).

The fact that Carrasco is expected back on the mound this season is certainly good news, and we at MLBTR join the rest of the baseball world in wishing Carrasco and his family all the best.  This isn’t the first health issue that the 32-year-old Carrasco has faced, as he dealt with a heart condition in 2015, as well as a pair of major baseball-related major injuries (Tommy John surgery in 2011, a broken hand at the end of the 2016 season that sidelined him for Cleveland’s postseason run).

The Indians went into the season counting on being carried by arguably the game’s best rotation, though that starting five has now lost Carrasco, Corey Kluber, and Mike Clevinger for extended periods.  Clevinger is close to beginning a rehab assignment after missing almost two months due to back problems, though Carrasco is out indefinitely and Kluber is still a long ways from a return after suffering a fractured forearm in early May.  Yefry Rodriguez had made eight starts for the Tribe filling in for Kluber, though Rodriguez himself went on the IL yesterday with a shoulder strain.

This leaves Trevor Bauer, Shane Bieber, and rookie Zach Plesac as the only healthy members of Cleveland’s rotation.  Cody Anderson and Adam Plutko have made starts for the Tribe this season and could again be recalled from Triple-A, plus Chih-Wei Hu and Asher Wojciechowski are also available in the Columbus rotation as further depth.  Cleveland currently has a 10-man bullpen, and could also deploy an opener to account for at least one of those open rotation spots rather than a regular starter.

As the injuries continue to mount, it will increase speculation that the Tribe could be sellers rather than buyers at the trade deadline.  Though the Indians entered today’s action just a game out of a wild card spot, Cleveland has a 30-30 record, a minus-13 run differential, and is already staring at a 10.5 game deficit behind the surprising Twins in the AL Central.  The Tribe were already aggressive in cutting salary over the offseason, and rather than go all-out in pursuit of a one-game playoff, the team could continue to move payroll to streamline its roster and perhaps reload for another shot at contending in 2020.

Indians Place Jefry Rodriguez On IL; Mike Clevinger Progressing

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The Indians placed right-hander Jefry Rodriguez on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Ryan Lewis of Ohio.com relays. Rodriguez is dealing with a “mild” shoulder strain, according to manager Terry Francona, though he’ll still miss “at least a few weeks,” per Lewis. The team activated outfielder Tyler Naquin from the IL to take Rodriguez’s roster spot.

The 25-year-old Rodriguez arrived in Cleveland last offseason as part of its return from Washington for catcher Yan Gomes. But Rodriguez wasn’t supposed to see this much action with the Tribe right away. Before landing on the IL, he totaled eight starts and 43 2/3 innings of 4.74 ERA/4.47 FIP pitching with 6.6 K/9 and 3.92 BB/9. The Indians have had to rely on Rodriguez because of injuries to two of their best hurlers, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, who have only combined for seven starts and 47 2/3 frames this season.

It’s not yet clear who will take over for Rodriguez in the Indians’ rotation. It’s not going to be Clevinger, who has been down since April 8 because of back issues, but he’s not far from a return. Lewis reports Clevinger will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus on Thursday. As things stand, the 28-year-old is way ahead of schedule, Lewis suggests.

Clevinger came out of the gates in awe-inspiring fashion during his first two starts this season, throwing 12 scoreless innings of two-hit ball and racking up 22 strikeouts against three walks. His comeback will be a welcome morsel of positive news for a .500 Cleveland club that’s sitting a distant 10 1/2 games behind first-place Minnesota in the AL Central. The Indians entered the season as back-to-back-to-back division champions, and their two most recent titles came with key contributions from Clevinger.

AL Notes: Athletics, Kikuchi, Buttrey, Tribe

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The Athletics are welcoming designated hitter Khris Davis back from the 10-day injured list on Saturday, the team announced. The slugger hasn’t taken an at-bat since May 21 because of a left hip/oblique contusion. In further positive news for the A’s, injured hurlers Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and Marco Estrada are all making progress, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports (Twitter links here). Manaea, recovering from the left shoulder surgery he underwent last September, will throw live batting practice Tuesday. The promising prospect Luzardo threw a two-inning, 30-pitch sim game Saturday, after which A’s manager Bob Melvin offered an encouraging update. Luzardo hasn’t pitched this season on account of a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder, while Estrada has been down since mid-April because of a back problem. Estrada will start playing catch Monday and isn’t far from beginning a regular throwing program, Gallegos relays.

  • On the heels of back-to-back brutal performances from Yusei Kikuchi, the Mariners are skipping the southpaw’s start Tuesday in an effort to “recharge the batteries,” according to manager Scott Servais (via Greg Johns of MLB.com). Kikuchi will slot back into their rotation “later next week,” Johns writes. The 27-year-old Kikuchi yielded 10 earned runs on 20 hits, including three homers, over 6 2/3 innings in his two latest starts. He joined the Mariners in the offseason as a ballyhooed signing from Japan, and has gotten off to a so-so start in the majors. Kikuchi owns a 4.43 ERA/4.64 FIP with 6.72 K/9, 2.28 BB/9 and a 45 percent groundball rate through 67 innings. Now that Kikuchi’s headed for a brief respite, the Mariners could promote lefty Jon Niese or righty Anthony Misiewicz from Triple-A Tacoma as his replacement, per Johns. Neither hurler is on the M’s 40-man roster, but the team does have a pair of openings at the moment.
  • Righty Ty Buttrey has been the Angels’ top reliever in 2019, but they’re leery of overusing the rookie, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times explains. Acquired from Boston last July for second baseman Ian Kinsler, the hard-throwing Buttrey has tossed 28 1/3 innings in his first full season with the Angels. He leads Halos relievers in ERA (1.27) and FIP (2.09), and has helped his cause with 11.12 K/9, 2.22 BB/9 and a 46.5 percent grounder rate. Buttrey’s currently on pace for 74 appearances and 80 innings. It doesn’t appear the 26-year-old will get to either figure by the end of the season, however, as manager Brad Ausmus noted he’s “got to think about this kid’s health.”
  • Indians right-hander Jefry Rodriguez exited his start against the White Sox on Saturday with right lat tightness, Zack Meisel of The Athletic tweets. It’s yet another unfortunate development for Cleveland’s rotation, which has gone without the injured Corey Kluber–Mike Clevinger duo for most of the season and has gotten somewhat underwhelming performances from Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. Rodriguez logged good results in four innings Saturday, but the 25-year-old has only managed a 4.74 ERA/4.47 FIP with 6.6 K/9 and 3.92 BB/9 in 43 2/3 frames on the season.

Carlos Carrasco Has Gone Backward

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Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most dominant starters from 2014-18. During that 807 2/3-inning, 131-start span, Carrasco recorded a 3.31 ERA/3.03 FIP with 10.18 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, a 48.0 percent groundball rate and upward of 20 wins above replacement. That five-year stretch convinced the Indians to keep and extend Carrasco in the offseason, when there were rumblings they could offload starters, signing him to a team-friendly contract. Two months into the season, though, the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions haven’t resembled their previous selves, in part because Carrasco hasn’t managed the same results as he did in prior years.

The 32-year-old Carrasco has pitched to a 4.98 ERA through 65 innings, averaging just over five frames per start after logging better than six an outing during the previous half-decade. Carrasco’s 4.07 FIP is nowhere near as underwhelming as his ERA, but it’s still a run higher than he and the Indians are accustomed to. His strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal (10.94 K/9, 1.52 BB/9), and his .353 batting average on balls in play further suggests positive regression in the run prevention department. Aside from those figures, though, there are legit reasons for concern regarding Carrasco.

It begins with a newfound difficulty keeping the ball out of the air. Carrasco’s groundball percentage has nosedived to a career-worst 39.2, leading to personal worsts in fly ball rate (38.7) and launch angle against (14.2). Surprise, surprise: Home run troubles have come with those changes. Carrasco’s yielding gopher balls on 20 percent of flies, up from 12.7 during his aforementioned five-year stretch of excellence. It’s not just HRs, though – Carrasco’s surrendering more damaging contact in general. He ranks in the bottom 8 percent of the league or worse in exit velocity against (90.9), barrel percentage against (14.1) and hard-hit rate (47.3 percent), according to Statcast, which also assigns Carrasco a below-average expected weighted on-base average against (.329, compared to .280 in 2018).

So what’s causing Carrasco to falter? His biggest problem seems to be his changeup, a pitch he has relied on between 16 and 18 percent of the time dating back to last season. Batters have posted a .432/.377 xwOBA versus the offering this season after mustering a matching (and weak) .224/.224 against it a year ago. As is typically the case with changeups, Carrasco has primarily used it in an effort to quell opposite-handed hitters. They’ve caused the most damage against Carrasco, though, having slashed .287/.331/.574 for a .371 wOBA.

In essence, the average lefty swinger who has faced Carrasco in 2019 has hit like Trevor Story or Matt Chapman. That wasn’t the case last year, when lefties managed a Joe Panik-esque .302 wOBA off Carrasco. It’s happening in part because Carrasco isn’t locating his change as precisely as he did in 2018, keeping it too close to the middle of the plate (and inside versus lefties). That wasn’t true last season. Carrasco has had a similar problem with his curveball, having allowed a ludicrous .908/.719 wOBA/xwOBA when throwing it, though he has only turned to the pitch 2.3 percent of the time (down 5 percent from last year, when it was much more effective).

Cleveland’s a 28-28 team with a minus-12 run differential, already facing a 9 1/2-game deficit in the division it has owned in recent seasons. Considering the myriad issues the Indians are facing – including the weeks-long absences of injured righties Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, not to mention fellow RHP Trevor Bauer’s own decline – a middling version of Carrasco is one of the last things they needed. That’s what the Indians have gotten, though, and unless Carrasco returns to form, catching the first-place Twins is going to be an even tougher task.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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