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Guardians Rumors

Guardians Acquire Spencer Howard From Giants

By Darragh McDonald | July 5, 2024 at 2:40pm CDT

The Guardians have acquired right-hander Spencer Howard from the Giants, per Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle on X. The Giants, who designated the righty for assignment recently, will receive cash considerations in return. The Guardians announced that they have designated righty Wes Parsons for assignment to open up a 40-man spot.

Howard, 27, was with the Giants on a minor league deal at the start of this year and opened the season with ten Triple-A starts. He had a 5.90 earned run average in that time, though he probably deserved better than that. His 32.2% strikeout rate was quite strong and his 9.6% walk rate only slightly on the high side. But he had a .406 batting average on balls in play and 66.1% strand rate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so his 4.12 FIP was almost two runs better than his ERA.

The Giants added him to their roster at the end of May and he spent just over a month with the club in a swing role. He tossed 24 innings over seven outings, two of those being starts, with a 5.63 ERA. It’s possible that luck played a role again, as his .388 BABIP in that time was well above average, but his strikeout rate also plummeted to 18.4% in the majors. His most recent outing was especially tough, as he allowed six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. Since he’s out of options, he was bumped off the 40-man.

The Guardians are perhaps intrigued by those Triple-A strikeout numbers that Howard had earlier this year, or perhaps his past status as a notable prospect. A second-round pick of the Phillies in 2017, he was considered one of the top prospects in the league, with Baseball America giving him the #27 overall spot in 2020 and 2021. He went to the Rangers in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy the other way.

Unfortunately, Howard has never been able to find much success in the big leagues. Between his time with the Phillies, Rangers and Giants, he has 139 innings in the majors with a 6.93 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. His work in the minors hasn’t been much better in recent years, as he’s tossed 143 1/3 innings on the farm since the start of 2021 with a 4.83 ERA, though that minor league work has come with a 31.7% strikeout rate.

Since Howard is out of options, the Guards will be hoping that he can quickly start getting punchouts at the big league level, likely in a long relief role. The rotation has lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery and they recently optioned a struggling Triston McKenzie, but they have a starting five of Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco.

If the Guards can figure out how to get Howard on track, there could be long-term benefits. He’s out of options but can be retained via arbitration for three seasons beyond this one if he holds onto his roster spot for the rest of the year.

Parsons, 31, started the year with the Blue Jays but was designated for assignment in early April and flipped to the Guardians for international bonus pool space. He has spent most of the year in a swing role in Triple-A, with 25 2/3 innings over 12 outings, five of those being starts. He had a 4.21 ERA in that time but may have been lucky to have it that low. He struck out 29.3% of batters faced but also gave out walks at a huge 17.1% clip. Were it not for an 84.6% strand rate, he would have fared much worse, which is why he had a 6.06 FIP for Columbus.

The Guards will now have a week to trade Parsons or pass him through waivers. The recent numbers aren’t too exciting but he is in his final option year and could perhaps appeal to club bit by the injury bug that wants a bit more starting depth in the minors.

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Cleveland Guardians San Francisco Giants Transactions Spencer Howard Wes Parsons

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Guardians Release Adam Oller

By Darragh McDonald | July 3, 2024 at 5:45pm CDT

The Guardians have released right-hander Adam Oller, per an announcement from their official player development account on X. The righty will head to free agency and look for his next opportunity.

Oller, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Guards in the offseason. He’s been working in a swing role in Triple-A this year, with six starts and six relief appearances. Unfortunately, the results haven’t been there for him this year, as he’s allowed 7.48 earned runs per nine innings. His 26.4% strikeout rate has been strong but he walked 14.4% of batters faced and allowed six home runs, a rate of 22.2% per fly ball.

The Guardians have had needs in the rotation this year, with Shane Bieber requiring Tommy John surgery and Gavin Williams spending the first half of the season on the injured list. On top of that, Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco and Logan Allen have struggled to put up good numbers. But Oller never got the call, presumably because of his own struggles. Williams was recently reinstated from the IL with McKenzie getting optioned to Triple-A, which could have indirectly led to Oller getting nudged off the Columbus roster.

Oller posted good results in the Mets’ system in 2021. He logged 120 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.45 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. The A’s acquired him and J.T. Ginn prior to 2022, sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets. That led to a big league audition over the past two years but Oller couldn’t land the gig, posting an ERA of 7.09 over 94 innings in 2022 and 2023. He was put on waivers and claimed by the Mariners in July of last year, but was outrighted off the roster at season’s end, which led to his deal with the Guards.

Though the results haven’t been good over the past couple of years, Oller was a notable prospect not too long ago. His numbers have been poor overall this year but he’s still been getting strikeouts, which is something that teams obviously covet. If he lands another minor league deal and eventually gets back onto a 40-man roster, he still has one option season and less than a year of service time.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Adam Oller

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Guardians Reinstate Gavin Williams From 60-Day IL, Option Triston McKenzie

By Mark Polishuk | June 30, 2024 at 11:58am CDT

The Guardians announced that Gavin Williams has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list, after the right-hander has been sidelined the entire season due to elbow discomfort.  Williams will take the rotation spot of fellow righty Triston McKenzie, who has been optioned to Triple-A Columbus.  To open a spot for Williams on the 40-man roster, Cleveland designated right-hander Darren McCaughan for assignment.

While Cleveland has long been known for its starting pitching, the rotation has been a surprising weak link for the first-place Guardians, and McKenzie’s 5.11 ERA in 75 2/3 innings has contributed to those struggles.  McKenzie leads the majors in both home runs (19) and walks (49), and his -1.0 fWAR is the lowest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 70 innings pitched.  Logan Allen is second on that list with -0.5 fWAR and Carlos Carrasco is sixth with 0.1 fWAR, speaking to the Guards’ overall rotation issues.

Some rust was to be expected for McKenzie, considering that he missed virtually all of the 2023 season recovering from a right teres major strain and then a right UCL sprain.  However, his struggles have been so severe that a stint in Triple-A might be the best course for McKenzie to get some confidence back, and to work out the control issues that weren’t nearly this severe during his 2020-22 seasons.  The former top-100 prospect looked like quite a solid pitcher in those first big years in the Show, and since he is only 26 and still under arbitration control through 2026, the Guardians would naturally love to see McKenzie get his career back on track.

It isn’t exactly a silver lining, but Williams’ own situation gave the Guardians some leeway in optioning McKenzie, as Williams represents a ready-made rotation replacement.  Since his rehab assignment began on May 29, the Guards had to activate Williams this weekend, as his 30-day rehab window was about to expire.  After his elbow began giving him problems during Spring Training, Williams began the season on the IL and has slowly been ramping up his workload over six minor league outings.

Selected 23rd overall in the 2021 draft, Williams delivered quickly on his top prospect status with an impressive rookie season in 2023.  The right-hander posted a 3.29 ERA over 82 innings, though a 4.61 SIERA reflected some middling secondary metrics for Williams, as well as the benefits of a .270 BABIP and 78.3% strand rate.

If Williams can deliver something even midway between his 2023 ERA and SIERA in his return to the mound, the Guardians would probably be satisfied, given both their need for any kind of reliable pitching and the bigger-picture acknowledgement that Williams is still early in his pro career.  Since Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have been the only reliable members of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards would love to get at least decent work from Williams as a third starter option before seeing if any pitching help is needed at the trade deadline.

McCaughan has already allowed five home runs over 10 2/3 combined innings with the Guardians and Marlins this season, inflating his ERA to 1181.  Beyond those extreme problems at keeping the ball in the park, McCaughan also has nine walks and only three strikeouts, making him the odd man out of the Guards’ 40-man roster.  A longtime member of the Mariners organization who made his MLB debut in Seattle in 2021, McCaughan was acquired by Miami in a cash considerations deal with the Mariners in February, and the Guardians then picked him up in a similar trade in May.

It’s possible McCaughan could find himself on the move again via trade or waiver claim, though the extent of his struggles might give any interested teams a second thought.  The 28-year-old righty has a 5.50 ERA and 10 homers allowed over 54 Triple-A innings as well this season, and while McCaughan’s past Triple-A track record has somewhat comparable bottom-line stats, those numbers were at least posted when pitching with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Darren McCaughan Gavin Williams Triston McKenzie

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Guardians Activate Eli Morgan, Designate Zak Kent

By Mark Polishuk | June 29, 2024 at 11:31am CDT

The Guardians announced some roster moves today, including the official signing of Matthew Boyd to a Major League deal, and then Boyd’s placement on the 15-day injured list as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.  Right-hander Eli Morgan was also activated from the 15-day IL, while righty Darren McCaughan was optioned to Triple-A and righty Zak Kent was designated for assignment.

Debuting in the majors as a starter in 2021, Morgan has found a lot more success since moving to the bullpen, posting a 3.54 ERA in 145 innings for the Guardians from 2022-24.  That includes a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings this year, though that impressive number is heavily tempered by a 5.47 SIERA, as Morgan’s secondary metrics include an 11.1% walk rate and a 15.6% strikeout rate.  That K% is well below his 26.5% mark from 2022-23, though Morgan might be able to more fully get on track now that he has recovered from a month-long bout of elbow inflammation.

Cleveland acquired Kent from the Rangers this past March, in a trade that sent some extra international bonus pool money to Texas.  Kent had spent his entire career in the Rangers’ system since being a ninth-round pick in the 2019 draft, but his time with Triple-A Columbus has consisted of just three appearances.  Kent hasn’t pitched since April 14 due to a right elbow strain, so today’s transaction is likely a way for the Guards to move Kent off their 40-man roster and potentially move him to the big league 60-day IL.

This would give Kent the first MLB service time of his career, as he has yet to make his proper on-field big league debut.  The righty has some solid minor league numbers (including a 2.73 ERA over 66 career Triple-A frames), but he has been hampered by injuries in each of the last three seasons.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Darren McCaughan Eli Morgan Matthew Boyd Zak Kent

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Guardians Place Will Brennan On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | June 27, 2024 at 7:06pm CDT

The Guardians placed outfielder Will Brennan on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 25, with rib cage inflammation. Infielder José Tena is up from Triple-A Columbus to take his spot on the active roster. Cleveland also optioned Xzavion Curry and recalled Darren McCaughan.

Brennan has been Cleveland’s primary right fielder, starting 43 of their 78 contests. He’s having a solid season, hitting .256/.314/.415 across 226 plate appearances. Brennan has already established a personal high with eight home runs while keeping his strikeout rate to a tidy 11.9% clip. The Guards have shielded him from lefty pitching, giving him all but 29 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.

It’s not clear how long Brennan will be out of action, but he’ll at least miss the next week-plus. The Guardians kick off an important divisional series in Kansas City tonight. Daniel Schneemann handles right field alongside Tyler Freeman and Steven Kwan. Schneemann will probably pick up the majority of the right field work with Brennan on the shelf, at least against righty pitching. The 27-year-old rookie is hitting .280/.379/.520 through his first 58 big league plate appearances.

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Cleveland Guardians Will Brennan

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Guardians, Matthew Boyd Agree To Major League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | June 27, 2024 at 2:35pm CDT

The Guardians and left-hander Matthew Boyd have agreed to a deal, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X. It’s a major league deal for the Boras Corporation client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on X. The Guardians will need to open a roster spot whenever the deal, which is pending a physical, becomes official.

Matthew BoydBoyd, 33, has had some good results in his career but he has been on and off the mound in recent years due to various health issues. He required flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and missed most of the following season, making ten relief appearances for the Mariners in September of 2022. He made 15 starts with the Tigers last year before requiring Tommy John surgery at the end of June.

Due to those injuries and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Boyd has been limited to 223 1/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season. His results have been fairly inconsistent in that time, which is probably not surprising given the many interruptions. His earned run average is an even 5.00 in that period, with strikeout and walk rates around league average.

Prior to this recent health odyssey, he was a solid contributor at the back end of the Detroit rotation for many years. From 2016 to 2019, he logged 588 frames over 109 appearances. In that stretch, he had a 4.67 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. His best performance was arguably back in 2019, when he struck out 30.2% of batters faced and gave out walks at just a 6.3% clip over 32 starts. His 4.56 ERA that year doesn’t look especially strong, but he allowed 39 home runs during what is now known as the “juiced ball” season, so his 3.61 SIERA might be more reflective of how he performed that year.

It’s now been almost exactly a year since Boyd underwent his Tommy John procedure. He is healthy enough to get on the mound, as he threw for clubs earlier this month, but he’ll presumably need some time to fully ramp up. Though he’s signing a major league deal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he agreed to be optioned to some minor league affiliate for a few weeks, effectively a delayed Spring Training.

The Guardians have been surprising in many ways this year. The rotation has often been a strength for the club but has been a clear weakness this year. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery earlier in the season and is done for the year. Gavin Williams has been on the IL all year so far. Tanner Bibee has been good but the rest of the group has been flimsy behind him. Each of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco have an ERA above 4.65. Ben Lively’s ERA is down at 3.03 but with a modest 21.4% strikeout rate and fortunate strand rate of 87.3%.

Despite those rotation struggles, the club is 51-27, the best record in the American League. They will probably be on the lookout for rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline but there will be plenty of competition. There are few clear sellers at the moment thanks to some wide-open Wild Card spots and the few clubs that are clearly out of it have been getting hit hard by injuries. The Angels just lost Patrick Sandoval to season-ending surgery while the Marlins have each of Sandy Alcántara, Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Eury Pérez all on the IL. Getting a pitcher from the White Sox would likely be a challenge since they share a division with the Guardians.

Given those question marks, it’s sensible for them to take a dice roll on Boyd. Financial details of the agreement haven’t yet been reported but it’s likely a fairly modest guarantee after he’s missed so much time lately. The Guardians will have roughly a month to get a look at him and see if he can help bolster their current group. They also have Williams currently on a rehab assignment, potentially giving them two rotation reinforcements in the coming weeks. How they decide to attack the deadline a month from now will likely be determined by developments in the coming weeks.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Transactions Matthew Boyd

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Guardians Recall Jhonkensy Noel For MLB Debut

By Anthony Franco | June 26, 2024 at 5:24pm CDT

The Guardians recalled first base/corner outfield prospect Jhonkensy Noel from Triple-A Columbus before this evening’s game with the Orioles. Cleveland optioned outfielder Johnathan Rodriguez in a corresponding move. Noel is starting at first base tonight against Grayson Rodriguez in what’ll be his major league debut.

Noel, who turns 23 next month, has occupied a spot on Cleveland’s 40-man roster dating back to 2021. The Guardians kept him out of that winter’s Rule 5 draft even though he had yet to play above High-A. They’ve patiently allowed him to progress through the minor league ranks. Noel spent almost all of 2022 between High-A and Double-A. He played the entire 2023 season with Columbus, hitting .220/.303/.420 over 138 games.

The Guardians kept Noel on the 40-man roster through some pedestrian offensive performances. They’ve clearly anticipated a breakthrough from the 6’3″, 250-pound slugger. That indeed has come to pass this season. Noel has blasted 18 home runs across 284 trips to the plate, tying for second among International League hitters in longballs. The native of the Dominican Republic owns a robust .295/.359/.578 batting line on the year. After striking out 24.8% of the time during his first look at Triple-A pitching, he has trimmed that to a 21.1% clip this year.

Noel ranked 27th among Cleveland prospects at Baseball America entering the season. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him 35th in the system in April. As one would expect for a player of his size, Noel draws praise for massive raw power potential. Both scouting reports question his plate discipline and note the high offensive bar to clear for a player with limited mobility who fits best at first base.

This is Noel’s final option year, so the clock is ticking for him to establish himself as a key piece of Cleveland’s roster. He’ll get that opportunity after his massive start to the season in Columbus. Top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo struggled in his first crack at MLB pitching earlier in the year and was optioned back to Triple-A last week. That leaves an opening at designated hitter alongside first baseman Josh Naylor if Noel hits his way to regular playing time on a Cleveland team that leads the American League with a 51-26 record.

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Cleveland Guardians Jhonkensy Noel

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Guardians Recall Angel Martínez For MLB Debut

By Darragh McDonald | June 21, 2024 at 2:10pm CDT

The Guardians announced that infielder Gabriel Arias has been placed on the family medical emergency list. In a corresponding move, the club has recalled infielder Angel Martínez, who will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Martínez, 22, has been a notable prospect in the club’s system for some time. Baseball America ranked him as one of the top 30 prospects in the organization back in 2020 and each year since. In 2022, he hit .278/.378/.471 between High-A and Double-A for a 135 wRC+ while also stealing 12 bases.

The Guards selected him to their 40-man roster after that season, in order to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He had a down year in 2023, slashing .251/.321/.394 between Double-A and Triple-A for a 92 wRC+. This season then got off to a rocky start, as he began the year on the injured list due to a right foot contusion and then suffered a left hamate fracture. He was reinstated from the IL at the end of May.

Despite the injury setbacks, he’s been in good form this year. He has taken 74 trips to the plate with Triple-A Columbus, walking more than he has struck out and hitting three home runs. His current batting line at that level is .333/.438/.550 this year.

Martínez has primarily played the three infield positions to the left of first base, with a brief showing in center field as well. The Guardians have José Ramírez, Andrés Giménez and Brayan Rocchio getting regular playing time at those infield spots with Daniel Schneemann bouncing around to multiple spots and Tyler Freeman getting semi-regular work in center. Arias has been serving in a bench role that Martínez should jump into.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Angel Martinez Gabriel Arias

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Guardians Option Kyle Manzardo

By Darragh McDonald | June 18, 2024 at 1:45pm CDT

The Guardians announced that third baseman José Ramírez has been reinstated from the paternity list with first baseman Kyle Manzardo optioned to Triple-A Columbus as the corresponding move.

Manzardo, 23, came into this season ranked as one of the top 100 prospects in the sport and the Guards promoted him to the big leagues in early May. Unfortunately, his first six weeks in the majors have not gone especially well. In 87 trips to the plate, he has yet to hit a home run while walking just 3.4% of the time and striking out at a 26.4% clip. His .207/.241/.329 batting line leads to a wRC+ of 61, indicating he’s been 39% worse than the league average hitter.

Those numbers are fairly uncharacteristic for Manzardo and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get back on track after a bit of a reset. Prospects don’t always follow a linear development path and it’s not the first time he’s needed to make an adjustment after some struggles.

A second-round pick of the Rays in 2021, he produced a monstrous batting line of .327/.426/.617 in 2022, splitting his time between High-A and Double-A. That included 22 home runs and a 14.9% walk rate while he was only punched out 16.4% of the time.

The Rays bumped him up to Triple-A last year, but he didn’t have much initial success at that level. In 73 games for the Durham Bulls, he hit 11 home runs and still walked at a strong 13.4% pace, but the overall line of .238/.342/.442 led a wRC+ of 95 in a fairly heightened offensive environment in the International League last year.

The Guardians decide to take a shot on him, sending Aaron Civale to the Rays in a one-for-one swap at last year’s deadline. After changing organizations, he finished the season on a strong note, hitting .256/.348/.590 in 21 Triple-A games after the deal. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and slashed .272/.340/.565 in 22 games there. He returned to Triple-A to start this year and hit nine home runs in 29 games while walking in 11.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .303/.375/.642 before his promotion.

Unfortunately, the big league audition saw all his numbers move in the wrong direction, so he’ll have to head back to Columbus for now. Since he’s always had strong walk and strikeout rates, it would be quite surprising if he weren’t able to improve those numbers in the major leagues the next time he comes up.

From a service time perspective, Manzardo was already going to be coming up short of one year of service time since he missed more than a month off the top of the 2024 campaign. He would have been on track for early arbitration as a Super Two player after 2026 if he stayed up, but that will now be less likely, depending on how long it takes him to come back up.

For the Guardians, they are leading the American League Central and should be in firm buyer position at the upcoming deadline. Manzardo had largely been serving as the designated hitter, so manager Stephen Vogt will now have some ability to rotate various players through that spot. It could also give the Front Office some flexibility in perhaps adding a bat-first player to strengthen the lineup for the final months of the season, with guys like Brent Rooker, Eloy Jiménez, Taylor Ward, Miguel Andujar or old friend Josh Bell just some of the guys that could be available towards the end of July. In the shorter term, guys like José Abreu, Daniel Vogelbach, J.D. Davis and Garrett Cooper have recently lost their roster spots with other clubs and should be attainable.

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Cleveland Guardians Jose Ramirez Kyle Manzardo

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The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

By Darragh McDonald | June 14, 2024 at 5:05pm CDT

Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals Cade Smith Emmanuel Clase Hunter Gaddis Nick Sandlin Pedro Avila Sam Hentges Scott Barlow Tim Herrin

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