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MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Notable Draft Signings: 7/22/24

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We’ve already covered a few significant draft bonuses this evening. A few more $2MM+ signings from Monday:

  • The Phillies are signing second-rounder Griffin Burkholder for $2.5MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). Philadelphia had to go well beyond the approximate $1.35MM slot value associated with the 63rd overall pick to sign him away from a commitment to West Virginia. Burkholder is a righty-hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school. Pre-draft scouting reports at Baseball America (where he ranked #50 in the class) and from Keith Law of the Athletic (who ranked him 71st) credit Burkholder with excellent speed and the potential for plus raw power at his peak. The question is whether he’ll develop an adequate hit tool in pro ball. He’s a developmental flier for the Phils.
  • Royals second-round pick David Shields landed a $2.3MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s in line with the 41st overall pick’s $2.28MM slot value. Shields is a 6’2″ left-handed pitcher from a Pennsylvania high school who had been committed to Miami. One of the younger pitchers in the class, Shields is a projection arm with good athleticism and low-90s velocity at present. Law ranked him 43rd on his pre-draft list, crediting the southpaw with good curveball feel and a loose arm action.
  • The Rockies agreed to a $2MM bonus with 42nd overall pick Jared Thomas, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (X link). That’s slightly under slot, which was around $2.22MM. Thomas is a lefty-hitting outfielder from the University of Texas. He hit .349/.435/.635 with 16 homers and 18 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore. Thomas split most of his defensive work in Austin between first base and center field, though he’ll likely get a shot at the latter position in pro ball. FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had him as a top 50 player in the class. Thomas draws praise for his solid power and athleticism, although BA’s scouting report raises questions about his propensity to chase pitches off the plate. Thomas struck out in 20.6% of his plate appearances during his draft year. While that’s a little better than the MLB average, it’s likely to rise in pro ball.

Rockies Place German Marquez On Injured List

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The Rockies placed starter Germán Márquez on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 19, due to elbow inflammation. Colorado recalled right-hander Noah Davis to take the open spot on the active roster.

Márquez heads back to the shelf one week after making his return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander only made one start, tossing four innings of three-run ball against the Mets the day before the All-Star Break. A quick return to the injured list with another elbow issue is cause for concern, but it seems the Rox expect to avoid the worst. Manager Bud Black told reporters that the team hopes to have Márquez back within a couple weeks (link via Kyle Newman of the Denver Post).

Colorado is well out of playoff contention, so the priority is making sure Márquez gets through the ’24 campaign healthy. The Rockies signed the Venezuelan hurler to a two-year, $20MM contract last September. Márquez is making $10MM annually on a deal that was mostly geared towards 2025. Colorado knew that the former All-Star would miss a good chunk of this season as he finished his rehab. This season is largely about building his innings count so he can hold up over a full schedule next year.

This bout of elbow inflammation represents an obvious setback, although it’s possible Márquez returns in August and can pitch for a few weeks down the stretch. There was never much of an expectation that Colorado would trade the 29-year-old this closely removed from surgery. Today’s IL placement seemingly slams that door shut.

Austin Gomber takes the ball tonight against the Red Sox in the series opener at Coors Field. Márquez had been slated to go on Tuesday. Newman writes that left-hander Ty Blach is likely to get the start instead. Blach has started nine of 16 appearances on the season, turning in a 5.46 ERA through 59 1/3 innings. He could step into the starting five behind Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Gomber and Ryan Feltner. The Rockies are reportedly willing to consider trade offers on Quantrill and Gomber, potentially opening up another rotation spot or two in the next week.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/21/24

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Sunday was a relatively quiet day for notable draft signings, although one deal of note did come together today:

  • The Rockies have agreed to terms with supplemental first-rounder Brody Brecht on a $2.7MM bonus, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The deal comes in slightly above the $2,452,200 slot value of the 38th overall pick. Prospect evaluators were universal in their agreement that Brecht, a right-hander out of Iowa, is a top-30 talent in this year’s draft class. Baseball America was at the low end of the spectrum, placing him 28th in the class, while Fangraphs (13th) and The Athletic’s Keith Law (16th) both placed him in the top 20. Brecht, who stands a massive 6’4”, 235 lbs, receives praise from evaluators for his mid-to-upper 90s fastball that touches triple digits and a double-plus slider, though control issues and his lack of a strong third pitch have left some evaluators to suggest that he carries substantial relief risk in his profile. In 15 starts with Iowa this year, Brecht showed off his tantalizing upside with a 3.33 ERA and a 37.2% strikeout rate in 78 1/3 frames.

Rockies Agree To Terms With No. 3 Overall Pick Charlie Condon

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The Rockies and outfielder Charlie Condon, the third overall pick from the 2024 draft, have agreed to a $9.25MM signing bonus. That matches Chase Burns, who signed with the Reds earlier this week, for the largest signing bonus in MLB history and slightly above the $9.07MM slot value for the #3 pick. Both Condon and Burns are represented by Vayner Sports. Jeff Passan relayed the details of the agreement on X.

Condon, now 21, is coming off an absurd two-year run with Georgia. He hit 25 home runs in 56 games for them last year and slashed .386/.484/.800. Here in 2024, he took things to another level with 37 homers in 60 games and a batting line of .433/.556/1.009.

In addition to the power, Condon’s bat-to-ball abilities are also considered strong. He struck out 86 times over his two seasons with Georgia, a rate of 15.4%. He also drew 90 walks in that time, a rate of 16.1%.

He’s not considered a standout defender but has some versatility, having played the infield corners and all three outfield slots this year. His ultimate defensive home seems up in the air, with some suggesting he’s likelier to end up as a corner outfielder while other suggests third base is most likely.

But the bat is the real standout tool and that’s why he was considered one of the top players available in this year’s draft. Baseball America, ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic all had him in the top spot. MLB Pipeline had him second behind Travis Bazzana, who was selected first overall by the Guardians. The report from FanGraphs is slightly more bearish, putting Condon fourth and expressing some worry that his uppercut swing will leave him vulnerable at the top of the zone, especially once he climbs to higher levels and eventually the majors.

While Condon’s power potential is exciting in a vacuum, the idea of him playing his home games at Coors Field is even more enticing. The Rockies have Ryan McMahon at third base, with his contract running through 2027. In the outfielder, Brenton Doyle seems to be emerging as a core piece in center, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored.

For Condon’s other possible positions, things get murky. Kris Bryant is under contract through 2028 but has hardly been able to stay on the field since coming to Colorado, even though the Rockies moved him to first base to try to lighten the wear and tear on him. Charlie Blackmon is 38 years old and on a one-year deal. Nolan Jones seemed to breakout last year but has stalled here in 2024.

The picture will undoubtedly change in time but the Rockies will surely be hoping for Condon to be a part of their roster in the future. His defense might require a bit of experimentation but perhaps his bat can vault him towards the majors quickly.

Rockies Outright Josh Rogers

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The Rockies have sent left-hander Josh Rogers outright to Triple-A Albuquerque, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment earlier this week. He has the right to elect free agency but it’s not yet clear if he has chosen to do so.

Rogers, 30, began the year with the Rockies on a minor league deal. He started the year with nine Triple-A starts, posting a 5.44 earned run average in those outings in the Pacific Coast League. He only struck out 14.6% of opponents but kept his walk rate down to a tiny 4.4% rate.

The Rockies added him to their roster at the end of May as the club needed some innings. Austin Gomber was scratched from his start on May 27, leaving the club to deploy a bullpen game, with Rogers allowing two runs in five frames that day.

He eventually made four other appearances and was sitting on a 6.75 ERA when he landed on the 15-day injured list due to a left shoulder rotator cuff strain. He was reinstated from the IL July 14 and optioned to the minors, getting designated for assignment the next day.

The lefty will now have to decide whether to report to Albuquerque or head to the open market. If he sticks with the Rockies, there might be opportunities opening up on the staff later in the year. The club is one of the clearest sellers at 34-63 and they could perhaps move guys like Gomber, Cal Quantrill or others. If they do end up flipping a pitcher or two, they may need some help covering innings in the final few weeks of the season.

He had previously appeared in the big leagues with the Orioles and Nationals. His work with Colorado this year has bumped his career totals to 97 1/3 innings over 35 big league appearances, with a 5.55 ERA, 10.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate.

The Rockies May Have Found A Long-Term Answer In Center Field

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The Rockies are headed to another last place finish. Overall, the only sources of intrigue are how active they’ll be as deadline sellers and whether they’ll place below the Marlins as the worst team in the National League. That doesn’t negate the possibility of individual development. For a second straight year, Colorado looks like they’ve developed a regular in the outfield amidst a generally rough season.

Last season’s success story was fourth-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher Nolan Jones. While his follow-up has not gone as planned, Colorado has gotten much better production out of another of his second-year outfield mates. Brenton Doyle seems to be turning the corner from an all-glove center fielder to a balanced, above-average everyday player.

One could argue that Doyle had a successful rookie season in his own right. It didn’t match up to Jones’ debut campaign, but Doyle looked like one of the sport’s 5-10 best outfield defenders from the time he was called up. He posted eye-popping grades (+19 Defensive Runs Saved, 15 runs above average by Statcast measurement) in a little more than 1000 innings. He earned a well-deserved Gold Glove.

Stellar as Doyle was defensively, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded him marginally above replacement in 2023. Among regulars, he was probably the least productive hitter in the majors. Doyle ranked last among 212 hitters (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .250 on-base percentage. His .203 average was sixth-worst and he was in the bottom-10 in slugging percentage as well.

Unlike other players with similar rate stats, Doyle played half his games at Coors Field. The park-adjusted wRC+ metric rated Doyle 57 percentage points below league average offensively. That was worst in the majors among regulars by a wide margin. Tim Anderson was next closest at 40 points below average.

The Rockies had reason to believe Doyle would take a step forward offensively. He went to Division II Shepherd University. Doyle certainly wasn’t facing many professional-caliber arms at that level. He was nevertheless a generally productive minor league hitter, albeit with significant strikeout issues. Doyle is a good athlete who drew praise from prospect evaluators for plus or better raw power. His approach and pure hit tool have always been the biggest concerns, but he had the kind of profile that could lead a team to believe he’d blossom later than most players.

Doyle seems to have done just that in his age-26 season, likely progressing even beyond Colorado’s expectations. He heads into the season’s unofficial second half with a .276/.343/.471 slash line across 377 plate appearances. His 15 homers are already five more than he managed over 431 trips to the plate last season. Doyle hasn’t merely improved from one of the league’s worst hitters to a competent option in the bottom third of a lineup. His offense has jumped from the bottom of the league to better than average. Bud Black gave him some run at the top of order last month and had him in the middle third of the lineup going into the All-Star Break.

An improved process is arguably even more encouraging than the results themselves are. Doyle hasn’t simply ridden a streak of batted ball luck to good numbers. His .338 average on balls in play is .043 points higher than last year’s mark, but it’s not a number that screams for regression. Doyle is an elite runner who hits the ball fairly hard and plays in the sport’s biggest home park. He should be able to maintain a higher-than-average BABIP.

The much bigger driver has been Doyle’s improved strike zone discipline. The righty hitter has both become more selective and taken a massive step forward with his contact skills. As a rookie, Doyle made contact 79% of the time he swung at a pitch inside the strike zone, a bottom-20 mark in the majors. He’s north of 86% this year, slightly higher than the 85.3% league average. Doyle has dramatically improved his contact rates against breaking stuff and is chasing pitches off the plate less often than he did a year ago.

That translates to a vastly improved strikeout and walk profile. After going down on strikes an untenable 35% of the time last season, he’s punching out at a much more passable 24.9% rate. His walks are up from 5.1% to a decent 8.8% mark. No one would confuse Doyle for Juan Soto, but average strike zone numbers are more than sufficient. There’s never been much question about Doyle’s power or athleticism. He’s a fantastic defender. If he can maintain even a fringe-average hit tool, he has an All-Star ceiling.

As is the case with most Rockies players, Doyle has pronounced home/road splits. He has done an inordinate amount of his offensive damage at Coors Field. He’s hitting .346/.407/.588 with a 20.8% strikeout rate over 173 plate appearances at home. Doyle’s road production (.217/.289/.372 with a 28.4% strikeout percentage across 204 PAs) is mediocre. His road numbers are at least partially weighed down by a modest .267 BABIP, though, and his strikeout and walk profile has improved no matter the setting.

With regard to pitcher handedness, Doyle has been above-average against both lefties (.289/.359/.470) and righties (.272/.338/.472). His walk rate is steady regardless of platoon matchups, though he’s been more strikeout prone against righties (26.7%, compared to 19.6% versus southpaws). Doyle has also hit for more power against right-handers, however, which has helped to mitigate some of the extra swings and misses. Any way you slice it, he’s been a quality hitter regardless of opponent.

Whether Doyle can maintain or build off his early-season promise is one of the biggest second half storylines in Colorado. The Rox may not have much to play for as a team, but they’re looking for players to establish themselves. Colorado has Ezequiel Tovar locked in at shortstop and can keep Ryan McMahon at the hot corner for three more seasons. Doyle is in his first full MLB campaign and can be controlled for five years after this one. He has shown the talent to join Tovar, McMahon and hopefully Jones as part of the position player core. Maintaining this newfound approach would only increase the organization’s confidence that Doyle fits with that group.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Claim Antoine Kelly, Designate Josh Rogers

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The Rockies announced Monday that they’ve claimed left-hander Antoine Kelly off waivers from the Rangers, who’d previously designated him for assignment. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Colorado designated fellow lefty Josh Rogers for assignment.

Kelly, 24, was a second-round pick by the Brewers in 2019 and went to the Rangers alongside utilityman Mark Mathias in the 2022 deadline deal that sent righty Matt Bush from Texas to Milwaukee. Kelly pitched in the 2022 Futures Game and enjoyed a standout 2023 season split the Rangers’ Double-A and Triple-A bullpens: 57 1/3 innings, 11 saves, 2.04 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate.

That promising trajectory has gone off the rails in 2024, however. Kelly has missed significant time with a forearm injury this season and been ineffective when healthy, yielding 17 earned runs in a span of 16 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. His strikeout rate has dropped considerably, though at 25%, it’s still better than average. However, Kelly has issued nearly as many walks as he has recorded strikeouts, with a glaring 22.9% of his opponents reaching via base on balls. Add in the two batters he’s plunked, and he’s at a combined 24 walks/HBP — the same number of strikeouts he’s yielded this season.

Command troubles — albeit not to this extent — are nothing new for Kelly. Even prior to this season, he’d walked 13% of his career opponents. Last year’s strong K-BB profile represented a significant step forward for the southpaw, and the Rockies will hope they can get him back to that form down the stretch and into future seasons. Kelly is in the first of three minor league option seasons, so the Rox will be able to freely option him not only this year but also in 2025 and 2026 if they keep him on the roster for that long.

The 30-year-old Rogers signed minor league deals with Colorado in each of the past two offseasons. He didn’t pitch for the Rockies in ’23 but has appeared in five games this season, logging 9 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and surrendering seven runs on a dozen hits and two walks with two strikeouts. The Rockies selected Rogers to the MLB roster in late May but placed him on the injured list barely two weeks later, owing to a strain in his left rotator cuff. Rogers was reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A just yesterday. He’ll now spend up to a week in DFA limbo as he waits to learn whether he’s been traded, claimed by another club, passed through outright waivers or released.

Originally an 11th-round pick by the 2015 Yankees, Rogers went to the Orioles as part of the Zack Britton trade in 2018. He pitched parts of two seasons with the O’s and another two with the Nats after being released and signing a minor league deal in Washington. Overall, he’s pitched 97 1/3 innings in the majors between three teams and yielded a 5.55 ERA with a 10.9% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. He’s pitched 496 innings in Triple-A as well but had similar struggles there: 5.72 ERA, 15% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate.

Rockies Activate German Marquez From 60-Day IL

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TODAY: The Rockies announced that Marquez has been activated from the IL. Right-hander Angel Chivilli has been optioned to Double-A to make room for Marquez on the active roster.

July 13: The Rockies are set to activate right-hander German Marquez from the 60-day injured list tomorrow, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Mike Fitzpatrick of The Denver Post) last night. Colorado’s 40-man roster currently stands at 39, meaning the club will only need to make a corresponding active roster move to activate Marquez unless they add another player to the 40-man prior to activating him.

Marquez, 29, made it just four starts into the 2023 season before requiring Tommy John surgery in early May of last year. At the time, the former All Star was a pending free agent, but the sides hammered out a two-year, $20MM extension last September that has allowed Marquez to complete his rehab in a familiar organization and re-establish his value ahead of free agency, which now looms after the 2025 season.

For the Rockies, the move allowed them to retain a player who has shown the rare ability to pitch well while calling Coors Field home. From 2018 to 2021, Marquez posted a 4.22 ERA that was 17% better than average by ERA+ and an even stronger 3.70 FIP across 106 starts for the Rockies. That’s the version of Marquez the club surely hopes they’ll be adding back to their rotation tomorrow, although it’s worth noting that the righty’s 2022 season demonstrated some cause for concern as he posted an eye-popping 6.70 ERA in 16 starts at Coors despite an excellent 3.34 ERA in 15 starts on the road.

Marquez is slated to take the ball tomorrow in a start against the Mets in New York, and is expected to throw between 75 and 90 pitches in his return to the mound. The Rockies, with a dismal 33-62 record this season, will not be factoring into the postseason picture in 2024 regardless of how well the right-hander performs in his return to action. With that being said, it’s at least feasible that a strong start from the righty over the next few weeks could impact the club’s thinking ahead of the trade deadline on July 30. If Marquez can return to the club’s rotation looking healthy and effective, it would add a quality starter to a rotation that could make the club more comfortable dealing away pieces from its rotation.

Earlier this summer, the Rockies were reportedly listening on offers for right-hander Cal Quantrill and lefty Austin Gomber while also receiving interest in righty Ryan Feltner. Quantrill has pitched to solid results in his first season with Colorado, posting 4.13 ERA (110 ERA+) in 19 starts despite a lackluster 4.77 FIP thanks in part to a career-best 46.4% groundball rate. Gomber, meanwhile, has posted a 4.61 ERA that’s essentially league average (99 ERA+) after adjusting for park factors. Feltner has been the least impressive of the three in terms of on-field results with a lackluster 5.02 ERA, although more advanced metrics such as SIERA (4.13) and xERA (4.04) look much more favorably upon him thanks to his microscopic 6.5% walk rate and an ability to limit hard contact.

Dealing any of those controllable players would be tough for a rotation that already has the league’s worst ERA, but if Marquez can prove himself capable of returning to the top of the club’s rotation that would go a long way to helping round out a rotation that already parted ways with right-hander Dakota Hudson earlier this month.

Rockies Place Nolan Jones On 10-Day Injured List

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The Rockies announced that outfielder Nolan Jones has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a low back strain.  The placement is retroactive to July 12.  With right-hander Tanner Gordon also optioned to Triple-A yesterday, Colorado called up outfielder Sean Bouchard from Triple-A and right-hander Angel Chivilli from Double-A Hartford.

Since Jones was scratched from yesterday’s lineup, it isn’t a surprise to see him head to the IL with what appears to be a recurrence of the same back problem that has already taken a big chunk out of the outfielder’s season.  Jones missed over six weeks in his first IL stint and returned to action almost exactly a month ago.  While Jones’ numbers post-IL stint are better than his rough numbers in April before he was sidelined, he has still produced only a 64 wRC+ from a .202/.311/.313 slash line in 191 total plate appearances.

It has been a big dropoff from the .297/.389/.542 slash line Jones posted over 424 PA last season, as he also marked his first season in Colorado by hitting 20 homers and stealing 20 bases (from 24 attempts).  This production led to a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting for Jones, making him a bright spot in an otherwise rough season for the Rockies, and a potential building block for the future.

This year’s results don’t necessarily change that path since Jones’ back issues have clearly had some impact on his play, but obviously the Rox wanted to see Jones continue to build on his 2023 breakout.  There’s still time for Jones to return from the IL and have a big enough finish to at least end 2024 on a high note, and re-establish himself as less of a question mark heading into next season.

In other Rockies injury news, Kris Bryant is “highly likely” to start a minor league rehab assignment on Friday, manager Bud Black told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post and other reporters.  Bryant hasn’t played since June 2, as a rib contusion and then an internal oblique strain are the latest health issues to arise during what has been a nightmarish run of injuries during Bryant’s two-plus seasons in Colorado.  After playing in only 42 games in 2022 and then 80 games last season, Bryant has been limited to 24 games this season due to his current IL placement and a previous IL trip due to a lower back strain.

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