Angels Acquire Randal Grichuk, C.J. Cron From Rockies
The Angels have acquired outfielder Randal Grichuk and first baseman C.J. Cron from the Rockies, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Right-hander Jake Madden and left-hander Mason Albright will be headed to the Rockies. The Angels have officially announced the deal, adding that they will also receive some cash considerations in return. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that infielder Kevin Padlo has been designated for assignment and Taylor Ward has been shifted to the 60-day injured list to create some space on the Angels’ roster.
The four-player swap is the latest move in what has been already been a busy month for an Angels team determined to contend. With Shohei Ohtani possibly departing in free agency after the season, the Angels are desperate to make the playoffs, and have added Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Eduardo Escobar, and Mike Moustakas in other trades to address roster needs.
Tonight’s trade also brings a pair of familiar faces back to Anaheim. Cron was selected 17th overall by the Angels in the 2011 draft, and he spent his first four Major League seasons with the club. The Halos had back-to-back picks in the first round of the 2009 draft and notably picked Grichuk 24th (one selection ahead of Mike Trout), but Grichuk never saw any MLB action for Anaheim, as he was dealt to the Cardinals as part of the November 2013 trade that brought David Freese to the Angels.
Colorado’s tendency to try and retain players it particularly likes in free agency has created some doubt about obvious trade candidates in the past, but on paper, Grichuk and Cron both looked like clear candidates to be moved prior to Tuesday’s deadline. Grichuk is in the last year of the original five-year, $53MM extension he signed with the Blue Jays back in 2019, and about $3.11MM remains in owed salary before the end of the season. Cron is in the final year of his own extension with the Rockies, and has roughly $2.42MM still owed in 2023 salary.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the cash considerations from the Rockies amount to $2MM, thus putting approximately $3.53MM extra onto the Angels’ books. This puts Los Angeles a bit further over the $233MM luxury tax threshold, as the Halos look poised to pay the tax for the first time since 2004 (the first year of Arte Moreno’s ownership). The actual dollar value of a first-time tax penalty is pretty minor, but it does underscore the Angels’ commitment to finally ending their string of losing seasons and non-playoff baseball.
This desire to win has been hampered by a number of significant injuries up and down the roster, so in a sense the Angels have had to be aggressive just in order to patch holes. Grichuk has experience at all three outfield positions, but figures to mostly play left field in place of Ward, whose season is probably over after he suffered facial fractures after a scary hit-by-pitch incident in Saturday’s game. In the best-case scenario, Ward is able to fully recover and get back to the lineup by late September, just in time to be available for what the Halos hope will be some playoff baseball.
Once Mike Trout returns from his hamate surgery and Jo Adell returns from his oblique strain, the Angels might even have an outfield surplus, considering that Ohtani has the DH spot locked up. Still, that’s a problem Los Angeles will happily face down the road if it means their lineup is finally back at something resembling full strength.
Grichuk is enjoying one of his best seasons at the plate, hitting .308/.365/.498 with eight homers over 263 plate appearances after missing most of April recovering from offseason surgery for a sports hernia. Turning 32 years old in a couple of weeks, Grichuk’s career hasn’t lived up to his first-round potential, as his propensity for strikeouts and an inconsistent overall offensive profile has limited his production. From 2019-22, Grichuk had only a 90 wRC+ over 1942 PA and totaled 1.8 fWAR, with a sub-replacement -0.2 mark in 2022.
It’s far from certain that Grichuk has turned a corner, as his .367 BABIP and some significant home/road splits are warning signs that some regression is inevitable once Grichuk is out of Coors Field. That said, at a relatively low acquisition cost and a pressing need for offense, it is a risk the Angels are willing to take.
Cron figures to step right in as a regular first baseman, possibly solidifying a position that has been a revolving door all season in Anaheim. It remains to be seen how the rest of the field might shake out once the injured players start returning, but for now, Moustakas will probably take most of the time at third base while Escobar plays second. Zach Neto will presumably remain the regular shortstop unless he also needs to visit the IL after missing a few games with back soreness. Brandon Drury might be back from the 10-day IL within the next week, further bolstering the infield ranks and maybe moving Cron into a part-time role.
Cron has himself been dealing with a bad back, both within the last week and in the form of a trip to the injured list earlier this season that cost hm about six weeks of action. The 33-year-old has hit .260/.304/.476 with 11 homers in 224 PA, and Cron’s 93 wRC+ puts him on pace for his first below-average offensive season since 2017 (his final year with the Angels).
However, Cron has been hitting much better over the last month, with a .319/.347/.565 slash line in his first 72 PA since his IL stint. His three seasons at Coors Field led to some pretty drastic home/road splits, and the Angels will have to hope that he can both hit outside of the thin air and remain healthy enough to play first base, since Ohtani’s presence removes the safety net of the DH spot.
MLB Pipeline and Baseball America had something of a split opinion on Madden’s potential, as while Pipeline ranked the right-hander as the eighth-best prospect in the Angels’ farm system, BA rated him only 21st. Madden was a fourth-round pick for the Halos in 2022 and was getting his first taste of pro ball this season, with a 5.46 ERA over 64 1/3 innings for the Angels’ A-ball affiliate. His 12.9% walk rate underlines the issues that Baseball America’s scouting report had with his control and command, yet Madden’s big fastball can hit 98mph and his slider also looks like an above-average pitch. A Tommy John surgery limited Madden’s experience late in high school and in junior college, but Pipeline in particular likes his upside once the 21-year-old gets more experience on the mound.
Albright fell just inside the Angels’ top 30 rankings from Pipeline (28th) and Baseball America (29th), and the 20-year-old southpaw has posted a 3.62 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, and 6.0% walk rate over 79 2/3 innings with A-level Island Empire. A 12th-round pick for Los Angeles in 2021, Albright’s numbers have improved after a mechanical change, so some interesting upside exists if he continues to thrive after altering the arm action on his delivery. Pipeline puts a 50-grade on all four of Albright’s pitches, but while he doesn’t have a signature plus pitch, he can throw everything in his arsenal for strikes.
In short, the Rockies have now brought two new young arms into the organization, as Colorado continues its ever-lasting search for pitchers who can thrive at Coors Field. The 2023 season in particular has only underlined that need, as the Rox have been crushed by rotation injuries ever since Spring Training, leaving the team struggling just to find another healthy pitchers to eat innings. While the Rockies were seen as longshots to contend anyway, the team’s 41-64 record has put them at the bottom of the National League standings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Rockies Select Chris Flexen
July 29: The Rockies have now officially selected Flexen, optioning Gavin Hollowell in a corresponding move. They already had a couple of vacancies on their 40-man roster, which is now at 39.
July 28: The Rockies will promote right-hander Chris Flexen to start tomorrow’s game against the A’s, tweets Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette. Colorado will have to formally select his contract, as Flexen isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.
Flexen landed with the Rockies on a minor league deal two weeks ago. It was a good landing spot for the veteran, who’d been cut loose by the Mariners and Mets in rapid succession. The path back to the majors was easy to see with a Rockies’ club navigating a brutal stretch of injury luck in the starting staff.
Those health issues continued, as Colorado placed Chase Anderson on the 15-day injured list with shoulder inflammation this afternoon. Anderson has held a spot in the Rox’s rotation since being claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay in the second week of May. The 35-year-old has a 6.08 ERA through 14 appearances.
Flexen, 29, has spent the bulk of the year in the bullpen. He started four of 17 outings for Seattle, struggling to a 7.71 ERA across 42 innings. Flexen had been quite a bit better for the M’s in the preceding two seasons. He combined for a 3.66 ERA through 317 1/3 frames between 2021-22. His 16.5% strikeout percentage was below average, but Flexen kept his walks to a modest 6.8% clip.
The Mets agreed to take on what remains of his salary a few weeks ago as a means of acquiring reliever Trevor Gott from Seattle. Colorado will only pay Flexen the prorated amount of the $720K minimum salary for as long as he’s on the MLB roster. He’s headed back to free agency at year’s end but could use the next couple months as an audition for a spot in the 2024 rotation. Colorado’s rotation outlook for next season essentially consists only of Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber at present. If Flexen can find some early success, it stands to reason the Rockies could have interest in re-signing him next winter.
Rockies Sign Roman Quinn To Minors Contract
The Rockies signed Roman Quinn to a minor league deal, as per Quinn’s MLB.com profile page. This is the third minors contract and the third organization of 2023 for Quinn, who previously played with the Guardians and Brewers this year.
A veteran of six MLB seasons, Quinn has spent much of his career with the Phillies before he was designated for assignment midway through 2022 and subsequently elected free agency. His transactional whirlwind first took him to the Royals on a minor league deal before he caught on with the Rays on a big league contract just over a year ago. Quinn ended up playing 21 games in a Tampa uniform before hitting the injured list due to a knee contusion, and the Rays then outrighted him following the season.
Injuries have basically been the story of Quinn’s career, as he was a well-regarded prospect during his time in Philadelphia’s farm system but has been frequently set back by a variety of health issues. The most prominent among his long list of injuries include a ruptured right Achilles as a minor leaguer in 2013, and then a torn left Achilles that prematurely ended his 2021 season. The 30-year-old Quinn has been limited to 222 games over his MLB career, and he has hit .226/.303/.348 over 599 plate appearances.
Kris Bryant and Charlie Blackmon are both on the Rockies’ IL, so Quinn gives Colorado some depth in the outfield. Randal Grichuk was been mentioned as a possible trade candidate before the deadline, and it’s possible Jurickson Profar (also a free agent after the season) could also be moved despite his underwhelming numbers. Quinn’s signing could indicate that the Rox are preparing for at least one outfield-related departure prior to the August 1 deadline.
Rockies Place Kris Bryant On Injured List With Finger Fracture
The Rockies placed Kris Bryant on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 22, because of a fractured left index finger. Colorado also optioned Karl Kauffmann to Triple-A Albuquerque and recalled Elehuris Montero and Riley Pint.
Bryant’s frustrating second season in Colorado continues. He lost a month earlier in the year to a bruised left heel, the same foot that ended his 2022 campaign just after the All-Star Break because of plantar fasciitis. The latest injury was more of a fluke occurrence. Bryant was hit on the hand by a Braxton Garrett pitch last Friday. He’ll apparently need at least another week to recover.
The former MVP is hitting .251/.338/.379 with eight homers through 275 plate appearances. He owns a .273/.353/.417 line since signing with Colorado on a seven-year free agent deal. The Rox will obviously hope he can finish the season healthy to build some momentum going into 2024.
While there’s no question Bryant will be on the roster past the August 1 deadline, first baseman C.J. Cron is a potential trade candidate. An impending free agent, Cron started slowly but has raked at a .317/.349/.600 clip in 17 games since returning from an injured list stint last month. Back troubles had kept him on the shelf for six weeks. He’s again dealing with some stiffness in his lower back, he told Thomas Harding of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’s expected to miss the next couple games but hopes to return to the lineup on Friday. An injured list stint might ensure he stays in Colorado, but it seems he’ll avoid the IL for now.
NL Notes: Rockies, Matz, Winker, Brewers, Ziegler
The Rockies‘ injury-plagued season has extended into the club’s farm system, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter) reports that pitching prospects Gabriel Hughes, Jackson Cox, and Jordy Vargas will all undergo Tommy John surgeries this week. Dr. Keith Meister will perform all of the procedures, as well as the previously reported TJ surgery for veteran righy-hander Antonio Senzatela.
It’s a brutal setback for the three youngsters, all ranked by MLB Pipeline among the Rockies’ top 12 overall prospects, and Pipeline lists the trios as three of Colorado’s top four pitching prospects. Hughes was the 10th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Cox was a second-round pick in that same draft, and the 19-year-old Vargas was an international signing in 2021. Hughes was the furthest along of the trio since he made his Double-A debut this season, but now all three pitchers have been dealt a big setback in their young careers. Given the usual recovery timeline for Tommy John procedures, there’s a chance any of Hughes, Cox, or Vargas might be able to return late in the 2024 campaign, but it is likelier that the right-handers will all be sidelined until 2025.
More from around the National League…
- Most of the trade speculation about Cardinals pitching has focused on Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that an unknown American League club has considered acquiring Steven Matz. The mystery team would use Matz as “rotation insurance or bullpen upgrade.” Matz is still owed the remainder of his $10MM salary for 2023 as well as $24MM in 2024-25, and it seems like the Cardinals would have to eat a good chunk of that money to accommodate a deal. Matz has struggled in both years of his original four-year, $44MM contract with St. Louis, but after losing his rotation job earlier this season, he has pitched considerably better since a move to the bullpen and a recent return to the starting five. Matz has a 2.93 ERA over his last 30 2/3 innings and 11 appearances.
- Jesse Winker had a big pinch-hit single in the ninth inning of the Brewers‘ 3-2 win over the Reds tonight. It was a nice moment within what has been a very rough season for Winker, who entered Monday hitting only .194/.316/.242 over 196 plate appearances. These struggles have led to a reduced role, as manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel) “to this point [Winker] hasn’t given us production out of that spot….I think he understands it and just tries to be ready for an at-bat later in the day.” The hope is that the move will “let him work on some things and make some adjustments,” with Winker perhaps being able to earn his way back into regular at-bats. Winker was already limited to facing right-handed pitching due to his extreme splits, but he has only a .557 OPS against righties this season.
- Mets pitching prospect Calvin Ziegler isn’t expected to pitch in 2023 after suffering a torn right quad, according to Mike Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link). 2023 becomes an entirely lost season for the 20-year-old, who had yet to pitch this year due to an elbow surgery to remove bone spurs. Ziegler was the Mets’ second-round pick (46th overall) in the 2021 draft, with MLB Pipeline ranking him seventh in New York’s farm system and Baseball America ranking him 12th. The right-hander’s 60-grade fastball and curveball has led to a lot of strikeouts, but Ziegler has had a lot of problems in reducing walks. Unfortunately, he’ll now face another long layoff before he can continue his development.
Braves Acquire Pierce Johnson
The Braves announced that they have acquired right-hander Pierce Johnson from the Rockies, sending pitching prospects Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon the other way. Left-hander Lucas Luetge was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Johnson.
Johnson, 32, signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Rockies in the offseason. He was coming off a strong three-year stretch with the Padres wherein he made 102 appearances with a 3.39 earned run average and 32.2% strikeout rate. His 11.3% walk rate was on the high side but it was a good performance overall.
When Daniel Bard opened this year on the injured list, that opened the door for Johnson to take the closer’s role in Denver. Unfortunately, he didn’t have ideal results in that role. He had an ERA of 7.50 in early June when the club removed him from the closer position. He’s fared much better since that time, posting a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings, striking out 36.2% of opponents.
Johnson’s ERA for the year is still high at 6.00 and he’s still issuing walks at a high rate. But he’s had improved results recently and has been able to work around those free passes in the past. Pitching for the Rockies might have played a role in his results as well, as his 16.7% rate of fly balls turning into home runs is far higher than any previous season in his career. Perhaps he’ll be able to put his rough patch from earlier this year behind him, something that the decision makers in Atlanta clearly believe is possible.
Atlanta doesn’t explicitly need bullpen upgrades, as their relievers have a collective 3.50 ERA that’s second only to the Yankees among big league clubs. But with a lead of 11.5 games in the National League East, they’re as close to a lock for the postseason as any club in the majors, making it sensible to seek any and all upgrades for the playoffs.
The right-hander signed with the Padres after a stint in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers. Players coming from overseas leagues generally get language in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the normal service time rules. That’s why Johnson was able to become a free agent this past offseason despite having between three and four years of service time. He’ll finish this year with between four and five years of service but will be ticketed for free agency again at season’s end.
The Rockies have generally been one of the most reluctant clubs when it comes to trading away established big league players at the deadline. In recent years, they’ve given extensions to players like Bard and C.J. Cron at times when outside observers expected them to be dealt. Neither Trevor Story nor Jon Gray were moved as impending free agents, leaving the club to settle for a compensatory draft pick after Story rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, while Gray’s departure left them completely empty-handed.
That seems to have been a symptom of the organization having a belief that their true talent has been stronger than the results, but their 39-60 record has them in last place in the National League this year. With the club now poised to finish below .500 for a fifth straight season, it seems they are opening up to do a bit more selling this time around, with manager Bud Black recently hinting as much. That means Johnson could be the first of many similar moves for the club, who could potentially move players like Cron, Randal Grichuk, Jurickson Profar, Brad Hand and others.
For now, they’ve already added a couple of young arms to their system. Vodnik, 23, was selected by Atlanta in the 14th round of the 2018 draft. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a combined 2.34 ERA in 34 2/3 relief innings. He struck out 31.5% of batters but walked 12.8%. He’s been back in Double-A this year with a 3.10 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate through 40 2/3 innings. He’s currently listed as Atlanta’s #17 prospect at Baseball America.
Gordon, 25, was a sixth-round pick in 2019. He’s been working as a starter in the minors, posting a 4.64 ERA last year, mostly in Double-A. He has a 5.86 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A, though a 51.9% strand rate is probably inflating that. He’s struck out 20.5% of opponents while walking just 6.8% and has a 4.25 FIP. Both of these young pitchers will be eligible for selection in the upcoming Rule 5 draft if not added to Colorado’s 40-man roster.
In addition to parting with those prospects, the club is bumping Luetge from the roster. This is the second time he’s been designated for assignment this year, but the first one resulted in the southpaw accepting an outright assignment and getting his contract selected again. He had an awful 10.24 ERA prior to his first DFA but threw two scoreless innings since getting added back to the roster. Nonetheless, he now finds himself in DFA limbo yet again.
Atlanta will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Since he has more than three years of service time, he could reject another outright assignment and elect free agency. But since he has less than five years of service time, doing so would mean forfeiting what remains of his $1.5MM salary for this year. It’s possible that the same sequence of events happens as after his last DFA, with Luetge clearing waivers and accepting an outright to Triple-A. But perhaps someone takes a chance on his past results, as he had an ERA under 2.75 in each of the two previous seasons with the Yankees.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links) reported the details before the official announcement.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rockies Moving Connor Seabold To Bullpen
The Rockies are kicking right-hander Connor Seabold to the bullpen, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Colorado plans to recall righty Peter Lambert from Triple-A Albuquerque to start tomorrow’s game in Miami instead.
Acquired from the Red Sox over the offseason, Seabold has started 13 of 20 outings during his first year in Colorado. His 72 2/3 innings are easily a career high and he’s third on the team in starts behind Austin Gomber and the currently-injured Kyle Freeland. The Rockies have plenty of pitching uncertainty, so they’ve been able to afford the 27-year-old his first extended look in a big league rotation.
To date, Seabold hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity. He carries a 7.63 ERA as starter. Seabold is throwing a fair number of strikes but has gotten hit hard. He’s striking hitters out at a meager 15.1% clip and has surrendered 16 homers in 59 rotation innings (2.44 HR/9).
Seabold had a solid three-start run in early June, but his results since then have been alarming. He’s allowed six-plus runs in three of his last five outings. He failed to get past the fifth inning in any of them. The Yankees tagged him for six runs on as many hits in 2 1/3 innings in a 6-3 New York victory on Saturday, spurring the role change.
Lambert, a former second-round pick, started 19 games as a rookie four seasons ago. Injuries (most notably July 2020 Tommy John surgery) essentially ruined his next three campaigns. He’s worked in long relief for Colorado this season, tossing 34 1/3 frames over 16 outings. Lambert has only a 6.29 ERA of his own, though he’s at least striking hitters out at a decent 23.5% clip. Colorado optioned him early in the month to stretch back out as a starter in Albuquerque.
The 26-year-old has thrown 56 innings between the MLB and Triple-A levels this season. Saunders writes that the Rox are planning to keep him in the 100-120 range for the year. He should have a few chances to try to stake an early claim to a spot in a wide open Colorado rotation for 2024.
Gomber and Freeland (assuming he comes back as expected from a dislocation and small tear in his non-throwing shoulder) are the only two pitchers who seem to have holds on ’24 starting spots. Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela both underwent Tommy John surgeries this year. Márquez will be a free agent once Colorado buys out a $16MM option for next season; Senzatela is under contract but might not pitch at all next year. Of the other Rockies’ starters, only Ryan Feltner has an ERA below 6.00; he’s allowing 5.86 earned runs per nine over eight outings.
Rockies Designate Fernando Abad For Assignment
The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve designated left-handed reliever Fernando Abad for assignment. His roster spot will go to fellow southpaw Brent Suter, who has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list after missing nearly a month due to an oblique strain.
Abad, 37, signed a minor league deal with the Rockies in the winter and has since bounced on and off their roster this year. He was selected in mid-May and was designated for assignment less than a week later. After being released, he re-signed another minors deal and got his roster spot back at the start of this month. Between those two stints, he’s tossed 6 1/3 innings with a 4.26 earned run average. That might seem passable at first glance but he’s struck out just 6.3% of hitters while stranding an unsustainable 98.2% of runners.
That’s a very small sample size and Abad and spent a larger amount of time in Triple-A this year, posting a 1.40 ERA in 25 2/3 innings there. His numbers there are also being helped by a 100% strand rate but his 30.8% strikeout rate at that level is much more impressive.
The veteran has a lengthy track record that consists of 406 major league appearances dating back to 2010. He had a strong stretch from 2013 to 2017, registering a 3.13 ERA over 275 appearances in that time. But he’s been more of an emergency option since then, tossing just 37 total innings since the end of 2017 with a combined 4.86 ERA.
The Rockies will now have a week to trade Abad or pass him through waivers. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. It’s possible that Abad is released and returns to the club on a new minor league deal, the same sequence of events that took place a couple of months ago, though that’s not guaranteed in any way.
As for Suter, he was having a strong season before suffering that oblique strain. He has a 2.81 ERA on the year, keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.7% clip. As an impending free agent on a non-contending club, Suter figures to draw trade interest in the coming weeks, especially if he returns that same level of effectiveness. The Rockies are usually reticent to part with logical trade candidates but manager Bud Black recently indicated that could be different this year.
A Likely Trade Chip In The Rockies’ Outfield
As recently as a few months ago, the Rockies’ 2022 swap of Raimel Tapia for Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk looked like a no-win trade for both parties. Tapia lasted one season in Toronto before being non-tendered and signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox. Grichuk’s offense didn’t tick up in his first year at Coors Field, as many had expected it to. He posted his typical sub-.300 OBP and surprisingly had his lowest power showing (by measure of ISO) since his rookie campaign. He was essentially a replacement-level player in 2022.
The 2023 season has brought about better results, however. Grichuk still isn’t hitting for the same level of power he did during his Toronto days (five homers, .172 ISO in 225 plate appearances), but he’s walking at a career-best 7.6% clip and currently has a 20.9% strikeout rate that ties his career-low mark.
Grichuk has undoubtedly had some good fortune on balls in play — his .368 BABIP is 70 points north of his career-high — but his .300/.364/.473 batting line is impressive all the same. The 31-year-old’s 90.6 mph average exit velocity and 45.2% hard-hit rate are both well above-average and only narrowly short of his career-best levels. His 24.2% line-drive rate is a personal best by a wide margin.
Things have gone particularly well for the veteran outfielder as of late. After a brief but dismal slump in the first couple weeks of June, Grichuk has bounced back with a .322/.375/.610 slash over his past 64 trips to the plate. Today’s front offices generally aren’t going to overreact to a short hot streak, but Grichuk’s recent uptick in production is particularly notable given that he’s slugged four of his five home runs in that stretch. After posting just a 33.6% fly-ball rate through mid-June, he’s had a 44% fly-ball rate during this heater.
While he’s having an undeniably productive season at the plate, Grichuk’s game has ostensibly taken a step back in other areas. Defensive Runs Saved (-8) and Outs Above Average (-6) agree that this is among the worst defensive seasons of his career — if not the worst.
As a rookie, Grichuk ranked in the 91st percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. It’s only natural for a player to slow down as he ages, but Grichuk had well above-average speed as recently as 2021 (76th percentile) and 2022 (68th percentile). He’s down to the 46th percentile of MLB players in 2023 — the first below-average season of his career. His arm strength remains above average, but Statcast now places him in just the fourth percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of his outfield jumps.
Taken in totality, it’s a somewhat limited skill set. Grichuk can play all three outfield spots but has generally rated best in right field. He’s hitting well against righties in 2023 (.295/.357/.439) and tattooing lefties (.313/.380/.537), but his career body of work is below-average when he’s not holding the platoon advantage.
Grichuk is a solid enough role player who’s been thrust into an everyday role with the Rockies. The results in ’23 have been decent enough, but combined with his 2022 season he still looks better deployed in a more limited capacity.
That’s likely how many contenders will view him. Grichuk is a career .264/.311/.498 hitter against southpaws who’s made gains in terms of his overall plate discipline this season, albeit at the expense of some power. His defensive ratings are down, but that’s partially due to being played in center field, where he’s no longer a good fit, and in left field, where he hadn’t logged an innings since 2018 (when he played six frames there).
A contending team could install Grichuk as a part-time DH and right fielder whose primary role is to step into the lineup and help against southpaws. He can cover center field in a pinch and has enough bat that he’s not a total liability when needed to play against righties.
There are plenty of clubs in need of just this type of skill set. The Giants, Guardians, Twins and Brewers are all playoff hopefuls whose team-wide production against left-handed pitching ranks in the bottom seven of MLB clubs (by measure of wRC+). The D-backs, who have an all-left-handed outfield, are only slightly better, at 21st.
In seasons past, it might’ve been fair to wonder whether the Rockies would move Grichuk at all. Frankly, based on their history of hanging onto impending free agents, it still is. However, Rockies manager Bud Black said on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM just today that he believes his team’s front office will be “more active” than in seasons past at this year’s trade deadline.
Grichuk is a natural candidate to be moved. He’s a free agent at season’s end who’s earning $9.333MM this season. The Blue Jays are on the hook for $4.333MM of that sum as part of the trade that brought him to Denver in the first place, however, meaning an acquiring team would only be responsible for $2.02MM of the $5MM the Rockies are paying him (as of tomorrow). Colorado, of course, could pay down some of that money to increase his appeal.
Grichuk isn’t going to be a contender’s marquee addition, but he can can deepen a team’s bench and — based on Black’s comments today — seems like a player with a good chance to change teams in the next 14 days.
Black: Rockies Could Be “More Active” On Summer Trade Market
At 36-58, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League and have MLB’s third-worst record overall, leading only the A’s and Royals. While Colorado has developed a reputation for hanging onto potential trade candidates at the deadline instead of moving them at peak value, manager Bud Black said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that the Rox will likely be more active in 2023 (audio link).
“I think there’s probably more potential this year,” Black told Power Alley hosts Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin. “…This year is the year where, possibly, you could see more movement out of us. With the players that we have, and what we have going on in the second half of this year, and going into next year and the years beyond, it could make more sense to be a little bit more active.”
Unfortunately for the Rockies, a number of their would-be trade chips are on the injured list — many with serious injuries. German Marquez won’t pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has a club option for next season, but that’ll likely be declined, as his recovery will span into next summer. Righty Antonio Senzatela is also set for Tommy John surgery, and lefty Kyle Freeland is on the IL with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Lefty reliever Brent Suter is a rental in the midst of a strong season, but he’s been out since late June with an oblique strain.
Others on the roster are sensible trade candidates from a contractual standpoint but aren’t performing well enough to maximize their value. Reliever Pierce Johnson is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is a natural candidate to change teams, but he’s also toting a grim 6.14 ERA and 13.2% walk rate. Daniel Bard, whom the Rockies extended in lieu of a trade last summer, has spent time on the injured list with anxiety issues. He’s seen a three mile per hour drop in velocity and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. C.J. Cron and Jurickson Profar are both free agents at season’s end, but both have played below replacement level in 2023.
The Rox do have a handful of interesting names to peddle. Veterans Randal Grichuk and Brad Hand are both impending free agents at season’s end and could draw interest. Hand was enjoying a strong rebound season before being tagged for seven runs across three recent appearances, sending his ERA ballooning up to 4.99. He’s still an affordable lefty with a 26.1% strikeout rate. If the Rockies aren’t afraid of dealing controllable relievers — particularly a pair who are of the late-blooming variety — both Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird should generate interest.
Catcher Elias Diaz, a first-time All-Star in 2023, is perhaps the team’s most appealing trade candidate, as I explored at greater length last week. Diaz is signed affordably through next season, and it’s unlikely Colorado will be in contention by the time his three-year, $14.5MM deal expires at the end of the 2024 campaign. There’s been no indication the Rockies would entertain offers on third baseman Ryan McMahon — at least not yet — but he’s signed through the 2027 season and is again playing superlative hot corner defense with solid offensive contributions as well (albeit in spite of a career-worst 31% strikeout rate that is an obvious red flag).
There’s sure to be some degree of frustration among Rockies fans to hear these types of comments in 2023 — when the Rockies have their worst roster in years — rather than in recent non-contending seasons. The Rockies, for instance, declined to trade either Trevor Story or Jon Gray when both were in their final seasons of club control. They received a compensatory draft pick when Story declined a qualifying offer but chose not to even make a QO to Gray, losing him with no compensation. GM Bill Schmidt recently suggested to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers.
It was a similar story last summer with Bard, who was in the middle of a dominant season and viewed as one of the top trade candidates on the market. Rather than trade the 37-year-old flamethrower a couple months ahead of him reaching the open market, Colorado inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension that has quickly gone south. The Rockies also held onto Cron at the ’21 deadline and later extended him on a two-year deal that looked good this time last summer. Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.
Time will tell how aggressive the Rockies will be and how much interest the healthy players on their roster will draw. But it’s abundantly clear the team is in need of some changes. Colorado is 19th in the Majors with 411 runs scored and 24th with 89 total home runs. The Rockies rank 13th in MLB with a .253 batting average but are 22nd with a .313 OBP and 18th with a .403 slugging percentage.
The pitching has been even worse. Injuries have surely contributed, but the Rockies’ staff looked highly questionable even coming into the season. To this point, Colorado starters have baseball’s worst combined ERA (6.44), and their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.81 mark. Colorado pitchers have MLB’s worst strikeout rate (18.3%) and fifth-highest walk rate (9.7%). Their 1.51 HR/9 mark is the worst in baseball as well.