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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made notable progress in 2020 (granted, there was nowhere to go but up after their previous campaign), but they still finished well under .500 for the fourth straight year. GM Al Avila has already hired A.J. Hinch to replace the retired Ron Gardenhire as the Tigers’ next manager. The next step is improving their roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH: $102MM through 2023 (including $8MM buyout for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Let’s start with the infield, which could see quite a shakeup this offseason. The Tigers had a couple of 20-something breakout players there in shortstop Willi Castro and third baseman/first baseman Jeimer Candelario, but it’s not clear where either will primarily line up next season.

In regards to Castro, Avila said after the season (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), “We feel he has the athletic ability to play anywhere in the infield.”

Although Castro had a huge offensive year at short, that doesn’t mean the Tigers will keep him there. They may instead be tempted to pursue Korean star Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old whom the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes will post this offseason. According to Baseball America, Kim’s a top 100-caliber prospect, so lots of teams – including rebuilding clubs – should be after him. From Detroit’s perspective, it would seemingly make sense to bring in Kim as a Day 1 starter, either as a third baseman or shortstop. If it’s the latter, the Tigers could put Castro at the keystone, move on from free agent Jonathan Schoop and eschew the rest of the middle class of second base free agents (Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella are among those names).

Candelario, meanwhile, began the year as the Tigers’ third baseman, but he shifted to first after C.J. Cron underwent season-ending knee surgery in August. Cron’s a free agent who’s near the top of a weak class for free-agent first basemen; so, rather than go back to him or try for a different veteran first baseman (Carlos Santana and Justin Smoak are also a couple of names out there), perhaps the Tigers will leave Candelario at the position. A Candelario-Castro-Kim scenario from right to left would leave the Tigers with a potential need at third, though they may simply decide to let Isaac Paredes sink or swim there or sign someone like Jake Lamb or Marwin Gonzalez to man the spot. Paredes, for his part, had a very rough debut as the Tigers’ top third baseman in 2020, but he’s still just 21 years old and not far removed from top 100 status as a prospect.

Elsewhere in the Tigers’ lineup, it’s unclear how they’ll handle catcher or assemble their outfield. They signed former Yankees catcher Austin Romine to a $4.1MM guarantee last offseason with the hope that he’d emerge as a true full-time player, but he instead endured an awful season and is once again due to reach free agency. Detroit’s other choices, Grayson Greiner and Eric Haase, also produced next to nothing at the plate, while Jake Rogers still hasn’t established himself at the MLB level.

Avila said last month he’d like offensive help behind the plate, but he seemed to suggest he’d rather rely on the eventual emergence of Rogers. It’s unknown, then, whether the Tigers will seek veteran help at the position in the offseason. If they do, the Tigers probably won’t be be in on the two best free-agent catchers available, J.T. Realmuto and ex-Tiger James McCann. However, the GM’s son, former Tiger Alex Avila, as well as Yadier Molina, Jason Castro, Mike Zunino, Wilson Ramos, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos and Tyler Flowers are available as Band-Aids if the team wants to bridge the gap to Rogers in free agency. Gary Sanchez could also end up in free agency or as an attainable trade target if the Yankees decide to move on from him.

The Tigers are probably content with two-thirds of their outfield with center fielder JaCoby Jones and corner man Victor Reyes. The other spot may be up for grabs, though, as Christin Stewart didn’t hit in either of the previous two seasons, they can’t count on Niko Goodrum as a regular, and Daz Cameron hasn’t shown he’s ready for a full-time major league role. MLBTR predicts the club will supplement its outfield with a Jurickson Profar signing, but Joc Pederson, Robbie Grossman, Kevin Pillar and Adam Eaton are among others it could spend on for short-term help.

Turning to the pitching side, the Tigers seem to have three-fifths of next year’s rotation set with Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer. But Turnbull was the only member of the trio who performed well in 2020. Boyd looked like a breakout candidate as recently as the first half of 2019, but his production has fallen off a cliff since then. The Tigers will soon have to make a decision on whether to retain Boyd, as Anthony Franco of MLBTR explained last weekend. Like Boyd, Fulmer has shown flashes in the past, but he’s coming off a rough return from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond Boyd, Turnbull and Fulmer, the Tigers do have some rather promising young hurlers in Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Alex Faedo – four of their top prospects. Mize and Skuball debuted in the majors in 2020, though they had trouble keeping runs off the board in their first taste of MLB action.

Any of Mize, Skubal, Manning or Faedo could factor into the Tigers’ rotation next year, but it seems they’ll look to take some pressure off by adding at least one veteran this offseason. They’ve already shown interest in free agent Taijuan Walker, who could be a reasonably priced acquisition on a one- or tw0-year deal. Former Tiger Rick Porcello, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez and Mike Minor might also be among potential targets for the team.

Moving to the bullpen, the Tigers look to be mostly set with what they have. Daniel Norris blossomed in a relief role in 2020, while Jose Cisnero also turned in encouraging results. Bryan Garcia, Gregory Soto, Buck Farmer and Tyler Alexander also probably aren’t going anywhere, though there’s at least room for improvement over John Schreiber and Joe Jimenez (the latter looks like a non-tender candidate). That’s not to say the Tigers will shop near the top of the market for relief help, but with the wealth of veteran bullpen options looking for deals, they should be able to improve their late-game outlook in free agency.

The Tigers have had their share of aggressive offseasons in the past, but they have been relatively quiet of late during their rebuild. Once again, the Tigers probably won’t be that active this winter. That said, with some legitimate talent in or near the majors and a rising farm system led by last year’s No. 1 overall pick, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, Detroit’s time is coming.

Analyzing The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd Decision

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In the coming weeks, the Tigers will have to decide on a course of action regarding starter Matthew Boyd.  That was the case last winter as well, but Boyd’s disastrous 2020 season puts the Detroit organization in a much less favorable position this time around.

Boyd was one of the most commonly-referenced trade candidates around the 2019 deadline and during the subsequent offseason. The rebuilding Tigers held firm on a lofty asking price for the controllable strikeout specialist and ultimately kept him in the fold. Unfortunately, Boyd struggled through an abysmal twelve starts in 2020, no doubt dealing a heavy blow to his trade value.

The southpaw pitched to a 6.71 ERA across 60.1 innings this past season. A fly-ball pitcher, Boyd has always been vulnerable to home runs, but the long balls spiked to an untenable level in 2020. Even more concerning, the swing-and-miss stuff that had made Boyd so appealing fell off substantially. His strikeout rate dropped from an elite level (30.2%) in 2019 to slightly below-average (22.1%) last year. Boyd still generated whiffs at a solid clip on a pitch-by-pitch basis, but his 238-strikeout 2019 season now looks more like an outlier than an indicator of an upward trend in performance.

With teams having to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players by December 2, the Tigers have to determine if Boyd can get back on track. Arbitration salaries are tougher than ever to project this offseason, but MLBTR’s Matt Swartz pegs Boyd for something in the $5.5MM – $7.8MM range. That’d be great value for a high-strikeout, mid-rotation workhorse. But it’s not an insignificant amount of money for a player with a career 5.08 ERA/4.75 FIP. If Detroit feels Boyd’s 2019 season was something of an aberration, the organization could look to move on.

That could still take the form of a trade. Surely, the Tigers wouldn’t recoup anything close to what they would’ve received six months ago. It’s easy to envision other teams having interest in buying low, though. Boyd’s still only 29 years old (30 in February). He comes with another season of arbitration-eligibility beyond 2021, so there’s some long-term contractual upside if he figures things out. Notably, Boyd’s velocity and spin rates weren’t marginally different in 2020 than they were in 2019, so it’d be easy to hope for a rebound.

Robbie Ray, another high-strikeout southpaw who endured a similarly miserable 2020 season, could be an instructive case. Ray signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Blue Jays shortly after entering free agency. Which one of Boyd or Ray one would rather have on their team is debatable, but that $8MM mark might be an approximate figure for Boyd’s current market value. That’s right around the high-end range of Boyd’s arbitration projection, making this an interesting dilemma for the Tigers.

Tigers Interested In Taijuan Walker

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The Tigers have expressed interest in free agent righty Taijuan Walker, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). While the Detroit club has an array of young pitching on hand, Morosi says the intention is to ink at least one veteran hurler.

Walker’s career has been hampered by injury issues, but he was at full health for the partial 2020 campaign. He compiled 53 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA pitching over 11 starts.

Alas, the results look a lot better than the underlying numbers. Opposing hitters registered only a .286 wOBA but produced contact quality suggesting a much more robust .325 xwOBA (though Walker did land in the 74th percentile in hard contact rate). Fielding-independent pitching measures weren’t terribly optimistic; Walker checked in with a 4.56 FIP, 4.82 xFIP, and 4.60 SIERA. He managed only a 7.8% swinging-strike rate last year.

Suffice to say, teams considering Walker will likely not be chasing upside so much as hoping for reasonably priced, solid innings. And there’s reason to think he can serve as a useful back-of-the-rotation starter. Walker was healthy enough in 2020 to average 93.5 mph with his fastball, not far off his career average, and he won’t turn 29 until August. MLBTR graded him the 23rd-best available free agent, predicting that he’d land a two-year, $16MM contract.

Tigers Make Three Hires To Coaching Staff

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The Tigers have added three new coaches to A.J. Hinch’s staff, Cody Stavenhagen and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic report (Twitter link).  George Lombard will be the new bench coach, Chip Hale becomes third base coach, and Scott Coolbaugh becomes hitting coach.

This is the second link between Lombard and the Tigers this offseason, as the club interviewed the 45-year-old for the managerial position before deciding on Hinch.  Lombard has worked as the Dodgers’ first base coach for the last five seasons, meaning he and Hinch were on opposite sides of the controversial 2017 World Series.  Lombard previously worked in the Red Sox farm system as a manager and coach, as well as a roving outfield coordinator for both the Red Sox and Braves organizations.

Hale has also faced off against Hinch in a World Series, as Hale was the Nationals’ bench coach in 2019 when Washington defeated Houston.  However, Hale previously worked as a coach under Hinch when Hinch was hired as the Diamondbacks’ manager in 2009.  Best known for his own stint managing Arizona in 2015-16, Hale has a long track record as a big league coach with the D’Backs, Mets, Athletics, and Nationals.  Hale spent three seasons as a bench coach and third base coach in D.C. before parting ways with the team in October.

Coolbaugh worked as the assistant hitting coach for the White Sox in 2020, and will now take full hitting coach duties for the third time with a big league team.  Coolbaugh previously worked in the same role with the Rangers in 2011-12 and the Orioles from 2015-18.

The Tigers have now amassed most of Hinch’s staff, as the team announced yesterday that Chris Fetter and Juan Nieves had been hired as pitching coach and assistant pitching coach, respectively.  These new faces join two holdovers from Ron Gardenhire’s staff — first base coach Ramon Santiago and quality control coach Josh Paul.

Tigers Hire Chris Fetter As Pitching Coach

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11:37 am: The Tigers have officially announced the hirings of Fetter and Nieves. Additionally, quality control coach Josh Paul and base coach Ramon Santiago will return to the staff, per the team.

9:06 am: Detroit is also set to hire Juan Nieves as assistant pitching coach, reports Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic (via Twitter). Previously a member of the White Sox, Red Sox and Marlins’ MLB staffs, Nieves had most recently been pitching coach for Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate in Toledo.

8:05 am: The Tigers are hiring Chris Fetter as their pitching coach, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 34-year-old had been in the same position at the University of Michigan, one of the better Division I programs in the country. He’ll replace Rick Anderson, who had been on the Detroit staff since 2017 but was expected to depart after former manager Ron Gardenhire retired.

Fetter will become the first addition to new skipper A.J. Hinch’s staff in Detroit. He joins a growing rank of young, data-oriented pitching coaches making the jump from the top of the college ranks into pro ball. Reds’ pitching coach Derek Johnson was on the staff at Vanderbilt before taking a position in the Cubs’ system in 2012. He parlayed his stint as a Chicago minor-league pitching coordinator into eventual big league coaching jobs with the Brewers and Reds. Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson, meanwhile, made the jump directly from college to an MLB staff when he was hired away from the University of Arkansas in 2018.

Fetter himself interviewed for the Yankees’ pitching coach position last offseason. He also reportedly drew the attention of the Mets and Giants over the winter. He does have some experience coaching in pro ball, working in the Padres’ organization earlier this decade. As Morosi notes, that stint overlapped with Hinch’s time in the San Diego front office.

The hiring is also notable for one of the Tigers’ divisional rivals. Morosi points out that some in the White Sox’s front office thought he’d be the best fit for their pitching coach vacancy. Instead, he’ll take the same position in Detroit, where he’ll be tasked with guiding the development of top young arms like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning.

Rays Bench Coach Matt Quatraro Interviewed For Tigers' Managerial Job

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  • Before deciding on A.J. Hinch, the Tigers interviewed Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro in their managerial search, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Quatraro also drew some consideration from the Pirates and Giants for their respective vacancies last offseason. The 46-year-old has been on Kevin Cash’s coaching staff since the start of the 2018 season.

Tigers Officially Name A.J. Hinch Manager

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12:02 pm: The Tigers have announced Hinch’s hiring on a “multi-year” contract.

12:01 pm: The Tigers are expected to officially announce the hiring of A.J. Hinch as the club’s manager by the end of the day, hears Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Lynn Henning and Chris McCosky of the Detroit News previously reported Hinch and the club were nearing agreement on a three-year contract.  The deal is done, hears Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic (via Twitter).

The hiring process moved quickly, as Hinch first interviewed just yesterday. Almost immediately thereafter, it became clear he was overwhelmingly likely to get the position. Given that rapid turnaround, it seems likely the 46-year-old was the target (or at least a top candidate) for GM Al Avila and the rest of the front office from the moment Ron Gardenhire retired.

Given Hinch’s recent on-field success, it’s easy to understand the appeal. He managed the Astros to great heights between 2015-19, winning a pair of American League pennants and the 2017 World Series. He had plenty of extremely talented players with whom to work, to be sure, but Hinch was generally regarded as one of the top managers in the game just twelve months ago.

That all preceded the exhaustive reporting that emerged on the sign-stealing scandal perpetrated by the Astros during some of Hinch’s tenure, most notably throughout that World Series-winning season. Commissioner Rob Manfred suspended Hinch (and then-Houston GM Jeff Lunhow) for one year in January. Within hours, Astros owner Jim Crane ousted both Hinch and Lunhow.

In his report, the commissioner noted that Hinch did not approve of nor orchestrate the Astros’ illicit activities. Nevertheless, he was unquestionably aware of the scheme and didn’t do nearly enough to stop it. There’s no question the manager bears some of the responsibility for knowingly permitting players and other staff to brazenly conduct a cheating operation, regardless of his involvement (or lack thereof) in setting it up. There figures to be plenty of backlash if/when Hinch is officially hired, but the Tigers certainly don’t seem to be the only team comfortable granting those involved with the Astros’ scandal another chance.

Hinch was reportedly a candidate for the White Sox managerial vacancy, as well. Detroit’s division rival instead turned to Tony La Russa. There’s also speculation that Alex Cora, who was Hinch’s bench coach on the 2017 Astros (and by the commissioner’s account, more actively involved in orchestrating the sign-stealing operation than Hinch was) might return from his own suspension to again manage the Red Sox, as he did from 2018-19.

The Tigers’ roster isn’t one set up to contend immediately, but the organization is beginning to see the fruits of its rebuild. Top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal are already in the majors, while Matt Manning and Spencer Torkelson probably aren’t far behind. Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro also impressed in 2020 and will continue to try to cement themselves as long-term pieces on the position player side. Hinch will be tasked with trying to guide that young core back to the postseason for the first time since 2014.

Tigers Likely To Hire A.J. Hinch As Manager

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OCTOBER 30: All signs are pointing to Hinch becoming the next manager in Detroit. The parties are nearing an agreement on a three-year deal, report Lynn Henning and Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, one which could be finalized as soon as today. Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) also hears that Hinch “is the choice” for the position.

OCTOBER 29, 9:51pm: There has been “substantial progress” toward a deal, reports Morosi, who adds that Hinch is in line to become the Tigers’ next manager.

OCTOBER 29, 8:23pm: The Tigers and Hinch are progressing toward an agreement, Buster Olney of ESPN tweets.

OCTOBER 29, 6:34pm: Hinch is the favorite for the job, per Morosi and Beck.

OCTOBER 29, 5:10pm: The Tigers interviewed A.J. Hinch for their vacant managerial position on Thursday, Jon Morosi and Jason Beck of MLB.com report. Hinch is one of several candidates known to have spoken with the Tigers as they seek a replacement for the retired Ron Gardenhire.

Hinch, a former major league catcher, gained major league managerial experience in the past with the Diamondbacks and Astros. His resume includes a terrific 570-452 record, three 100-win seasons and a World Series title with the Astros in 2017. However, a sign-stealing scandal has called into question Hinch’s accomplishments in Houston. The league suspended him for all of 2020 as a result of the Astros’ violations, and the team fired him shortly after that.

Hinch’s ban expired after this year’s World Series, so he is now eligible to return in a prominent role if a team is willing to hire him. The 46-year-old previously garnered interest from the White Sox as they sought a new manager, but they elected to hire Tony La Russa on Thursday. That leaves the Tigers and Red Sox as the only teams looking for managers, though Boston hasn’t shown any reported interest in Hinch so far.

Tigers Interview Dave Clark, Sal Fasano, Mark Kotsay

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TODAY: The Tigers have another internal candidate in first base coach Dave Clark, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports (via Twitter) that Clark interviewed for the manager’s job last month.

OCTOBER 26, 5:44pm: Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay has also interviewed for the job in Detroit, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

5:32pm: The Tigers have discussed their managerial vacancy with Braves catching instructor Sal Fasano, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets.

Now 49 years old, Fasano played for an array of teams during a major league career that spanned from 1996-2008. He finished his playing career as a .221/.275/.392 hitter before moving into the coaching ranks. Prior to joining the Braves’ staff, Fasano garnered managerial experience at multiple levels in the minors with the Blue Jays and Angels organizations. He earned Manager of the Year honors with the Jays’ Double-A affiliate in 2011.

Now, Fasano is among a slew of candidates who could succeed the retired Ron Gardenhire in Detroit. MLBTR’s 2021 Managerial Search Tracker has the complete list of names.

Latest On Tigers’ Matt Manning

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The Tigers received unwelcome news in late August when they had to shut down right-handed pitching prospect Matt Manning for the season because of a forearm strain. Fortunately, though, it looks as if Manning dodged a serious injury. Manning said Tuesday (via Jason Beck of MLB.com) that he suffered a mild injury and added that he’s at 100 percent right now.

Manning, now 22 years old, was the ninth overall pick of the Tigers in 2016. He has since been highly impressive in the minors, including during a 2019 campaign spent in Double-A ball. Manning made 24 starts that year, threw 133 2/3 innings and recorded a 2.56 ERA/2.53 FIP with 9.97 K/9 against 2.56 BB/9. He now ranks as a top-tier prospect at FanGraphs (No. 12), Baseball America (No. 15) and MLB.com (No. 20), among other outlets.

Assuming he is indeed healthy, Manning could debut for the Tigers at some point next year. The team’s rebuilding, but Manning is one of the reasons its pitching staff has plenty of reasons for hope going forward. BA ranks Manning and fellow young pitchers Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal right behind this year’s No. 1 pick, Spencer Torkelson, in its list of Tigers prospects.

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