The Tigers Continue To Benefit From 2017 Deadline Trade
The Tigers and Cubs were going in polar opposite directions in 2017. Detroit was headed towards a last place finish that would kick off the massive rebuild from which they’re only now emerging. Chicago was trying to defend their drought-breaking World Series title, eyeing another division championship as part of what looked to be a dynasty in the making.
Given their respective competitive windows, they made for natural trade partners as that summer’s deadline approached. The Tigers were clearly preparing to sell off some productive big leaguers; the Cubs were willing to part with young talent to bolster their push for another championship. The day before the deadline, they agreed to a deal that sent a pair of veteran role players from Detroit to Chicago in exchange for two young infielders. Catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson landed on the North Side, while Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes headed to the Tigers.
Nearly five years later, the Tigers are reaping the benefits of that swap. Candelario, who had logged the briefest of action at the MLB level in each of the previous two seasons, served as a near-ready pickup. A corner infielder, he had no path to playing time on a Cubs team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the roster. But the Tigers could afford to give him regular run, and he was an everyday player by September.
Candelario has been a regular for much of the time since. He played in 144 games in 2018, performing around the league average on both sides of the ball. His 2019 campaign was a disaster, as his power evaporated and he was optioned on and off the active roster a few times throughout the year. That seemed to call his long-term future into question, but Candelario has turned things around over the past couple seasons.
The switch-hitter returned to appear in 52 of the Tigers’ 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He posted career-best numbers, managing a .297/.369/.503 line over 206 plate appearances. That’s a very impressive showing but it’d have been easy to write that off as something of an outlier. Not only were those numbers compiled in an abbreviated schedule, he benefitted from an unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play.
To his credit, Candelario largely backed up that strong performance last year. He tallied a personal-high 626 plate appearances over 149 games, hitting .271/.351/.443 with 16 home runs and an MLB-best 42 doubles. As expected, a .039 point dip in BABIP dropped his overall numbers a bit relative to 2020. Still, last season’s production checked in 19 percentage points above the league average (119 wRC+), and he did that over a much larger body of work than he had the year before. He now owns a .278/.356/.458 mark (123 wRC+) in 832 trips to the plate going back two seasons.
Nothing Candelario does stands out as excellent, but he has developed into a well-rounded offensive player. His contact rate, hard contact frequency and average exit velocity are all slightly above-average. So too are his line drive and barrel rates, as Candelario has demonstrated a knack for consistently squaring balls up. He’s been effective from both sides of the plate — .299/.350/.473 as a righty hitter; .270/.358/.453 as a lefty — allowing skipper A.J. Hinch to plug him into the lineup no matter the matchup. And while Candelario’s not a great defender at the hot corner, public metrics have considered him competent there. With top prospect Spencer Torkelson soon to assume first base duties in the Motor City, Candelario should be plugged in at third for at least the next couple seasons.
The Tigers’ rebuild has been ongoing for a few years, so Candelario’s recent production has flown a bit under the radar on non-competitive teams. Yet Detroit played reasonably well down the stretch, and this winter’s signings of Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez — coupled with the looming debuts of Torkelson and Riley Greene — indicate they’re hoping to turn the corner in 2022. Candelario now looks like a key piece of that effort, and he remains under club control through 2023 via arbitration.
Paredes, who was in Low-A at the time of the trade, also remains in the Detroit organization. He’s yet to find much MLB success, but he’s coming off an impressive .265/.397/.451 showing over 315 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and could yet develop into a productive infielder himself.
That the deal worked as the Tigers had hoped — at least the Candelario pick-up — doesn’t mean it didn’t pan out for the Cubs. As mentioned, Candelario was going to have a hard time finding playing time in Chicago anyhow. The Cubs obviously didn’t develop into a dynasty, but their acquisitions of Avila and Wilson proved successful enough. The former hit .239/.369/.380 in 112 plate appearances down the stretch, providing a strong on-base presence behind Willson Contreras before departing in free agency. Wilson spent a year and a half in Chicago, posting a cumulative 3.86 ERA/3.66 FIP across 72 1/3 frames of relief. Neither player was a franchise-altering star, but they were never intended to be. Avila and Wilson were brought aboard to fill specific areas on the roster (backup catcher and left-handed relief, respectively), and they both fared reasonably in doing so.
All in all, it seems this trade served both teams well. Going in differing competitive directions, the Cubs’ and Tigers’ needs aligned. Avila and Wilson were short-term but effective players for Chicago, while Candelario has since developed into the solid regular Detroit envisioned. After a significant rebuild, the Tigers are hoping to contend this year. Candelario continuing to perform as he did from 2020-21 would be a quiet but important asset alongside their big-ticket additions and graduating top prospects.
Tigers, Jack Lopez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Tigers have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent infielder Jack Lopez, as first reported by former big league infielder Carlos Baerga (on Instagram). Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Lopez has signed a deal and will head to the Tigers’ spring facility in Lakeland, Fla. for minicamp.
The 29-year-old Lopez won a Silver Medal as part of Team USA during last summer’s Olympics. He made his Major League debut with the Red Sox not long after returning, going 2-for-13 with a pair of doubles in a tiny sample of seven games. He split the rest of his season between Double-A (five games) and Triple-A (68 games), batting a combined .285/.355/.413 with four homers, 17 doubles, a triple and 15 steals (in 17 tries) over the life of 273 plate appearances.
Lopez, a 16th-round pick by the Royals back in 2011, has appeared in parts of nine minor league seasons and logged a collective .241/.295/.331 batting line in that time. The vast majority of his professional experience has come at the two middle infield slots, with more time at shortstop than at second base. Lopez also has more than 1200 professional innings at the hot corner, in addition to some more sparse work in the outfield.
Baseball America at one point ranked Lopez among the middle tiers of the Royals’ farm system, noting that his range, soft hands and solid arm gave him a chance to handle shortstop at the big league level. That was seven years ago, and the the bat obviously hasn’t panned out as hoped, but Lopez will give the Tigers some defensive value and versatility to stash in the upper minors.
Tigers Sign Carlos Sanabria, Chris Rabago To Minors Contracts
The Tigers have signed right-hander Carlos Sanabria and catcher Chris Rabago to minor league deals, The Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold reports. Presumably, both players will be invited to the Tigers’ big league Spring Training camp whenever the lockout ends and camp opens for Major League players.
Sanabria pitched in the Royals’ farm system in 2021, after spending his first seven pro seasons in the Astros organization. It’s fair to speculate that Tigers manager A.J. Hinch had a hand in recruiting Sanabria to Detroit, as Hinch was undoubtedly familiar with the righty when Hinch was managing the Astros from 2015-19. Sanabria didn’t make his big league debut until Hinch had left Houston, however, as Sanabria’s MLB resume consists of two games and two innings with the Astros in 2020.
Still only 25 years old, Sanabria has a 3.82 ERA and 23% strikeout rate over 412 1/3 career innings in the minor leagues, working only as a reliever over the last four seasons. Much of Sanabria’s success has come at the lower levels, as he has a 5.27 ERA at Triple-A, albeit over just 27 1/3 innings of work. A greater concern may be a lack of control that has more or less been an issue for Sanabria over his career, and has particularly manifested itself over the last few years; Sanabria has a 14.75% walk rate over 113 1/3 combined innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
Rabago was a 13th-round pick for the Rockies in the 2014 draft, and he has played almost all of his career in Colorado’s farm system apart from a seven-game stint with the Yankees’ Double-A squad in 2018. Rabago has hit .248/.327/.348 over 1727 plate appearances in the minors, including a very similar .240/.325/.346 slash in 235 PA at the Triple-A level.
Rabago will provide the Tigers with further depth at a catching position that is headlined by new arrival Tucker Barnhart. The versatile Eric Haase is the primary backup on the big league roster and can also be used in the outfield, while Dustin Garneau is at Triple-A providing more experience. Jake Rogers will miss a good chunk of the 2022 season recovering from a Tommy John surgery from last September.
AL Central Notes: Buxton, Delmonico, Baddoo
Chatting with SportsGrid’s Craig Mish earlier this week, Byron Buxton spoke about his decision to re-sign a seven-year extension with the Twins rather than play out the 2022 season and enter the free-agent market next winter. Reports dating back to July have indicated that the Twins and Buxton both hoped to work something out, and the 28-year-old tells Mish that “loyalty was a big thing for my family and me” when it came to contract talks. Buxton expressed appreciation for the Twins sticking with him and wanting to build around him despite a litany of injuries. He added that since being selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, his goals have been to reach the Majors, play for a long time, and to spend his career with one team.
There’s no guarantee that last part will come to fruition, but in addition to a $100MM guarantee, Buxton’s contract came with a full no-trade clause. He can also boost his annual salary considerably with incentives tied to plate appearances and MVP voting. There’s a good bit of risk involved in the deal, given Buxton’s injury history, but as his .277/.321/.575 line and 42 home runs through his past 684 plate appearances show, Buxton is one of the game’s best in terms of raw talent. A hip flexor strain and then a broken hand sustained on a hit-by-pitch limited him to 254 plate appearances in 2021, but Buxton turned in a mammoth .306/.358/.647 slash with 19 home runs in that time.
More from the division…
- Former White Sox outfielder Nicky Delmonico returned to the organization as a minor league hitting coach earlier this week. He told reporters that he hopes this will be just the first step in a lengthy career on the other side of the game (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Delmonico, 29, said he would “love to manage” one day and has long felt that would be his calling in his post-playing days. Delmonico might’ve continued his playing career were it not for some recent injury troubles, but he revealed in that media session that he’d have required shoulder surgery and a lengthy rehab process to continue on the field (Twitter link via James Fegan of The Athletic). Fegan notes that Delmonico spent the 2021 instructional league with the White Sox’ club there, learning under the organization’s hitting coordinator, Andy Barkett.
- Akil Baddoo is coming off one of the more successful showings by a Rule 5 draftee in recent years. Selected by the Tigers despite having never appeared above High-A during his time in the Twins system, the left-handed hitter made an immediate splash by hitting four home runs over his first eight MLB games. The sailing obviously didn’t remain quite so smooth, but Baddoo generally impressed over the course of the year. Not only did he stick on the active roster all year, he started more than half of Detroit’s games and posted slightly above-average offensive numbers (.259/.330/.436, 108 wRC+) across 461 plate appearances. Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic looks back on Baddoo’s season as part of a wide-ranging feature on the 23-year-old outfielder. Baddoo discusses his personal background and ascent to the majors, his offseason routine, and some goals for the 2022 season — including improving against same-handed pitching and strengthening a throwing arm that he says had still felt residual effects from a May 2019 Tommy John surgery. Tigers fans, in particular, will want to give Stavenhagen’s piece a full read.
The Tigers’ Forgotten Pitching Prospect
The Tigers are one of the teams seen to be on the rise heading into 2022, in no small part because of a cavalcade of promising rotation arms that have begun to establish themselves in the big league rotation. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal are three of the most impactful variables that might make the difference for Detroit in 2022. The pedigree of these three are well known, and their arrival in the Majors long-anticipated. Manning was the ninth overall selection of the 2016 draft, and Mize followed two years later going first overall. Skubal was the unheralded of the three, a former ninth round pick who rose to prospect prominence prior to the 2020 season.
But in the year between the Manning and Mize selections, the Tigers spent another first-round pick on a college righty whose road to the Majors took on a more circuitous route. After leading the University of Florida to a National Championship, Alex Faedo went 18th overall to the Tigers in the 2017 draft, signing for a $3.5MM bonus, barely less than it took to sign Manning the year prior. Faedo was a high character right-hander who looked like a future rotation piece based on the strength of his slider.
The gaudy strikeout numbers that Faedo posted in college didn’t translate to pro ball, however, and after making an appearance on top-100 prospect lists prior to the start of his professional career, Faedo soon after fell from the national spotlight. His fastball lost a tick or two of velocity, his change-up never fully developed, and the slider lost just enough effectiveness to dim his prospect star. He remained among Detroit’s better looking prospects, however, with Baseball Prospectus pegging him as the 10th, 6th, and 11th-ranked prospect in the Tigers’ system prior to the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons, respectively.
He finished the 2019 season in Double-A having recaptured some of the swing-and-miss that had eluded him in his first couple of seasons on the farm. He made 22 starts for the Erie SeaWolves that year, posting a 3.90 ERA in 22 starts covering 115 1/3 innings with a career-best 28.3 percent strikeout rate. He was expected to compete for a rotation spot at some point in 2020 despite not having tossed an inning in Triple-A, but a bout of COVID-19 delayed his season, and then forearm soreness led to Tommy John surgery, which ended it. Faedo hasn’t pitched since that 2019 campaign, but he’s on his way back. Faedo started throwing bullpens in his recover from Tommy John on January 11th, which should put him on track for game action sometime in March, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).
The lost time means the Florida native still hasn’t pitched above Double-A, and at 26 years old now, his days as a top prospect are behind him. But expect the Tigers to push him once he’s proven healthy. If he can get himself back up to speed, Faedo could absolutely become a factor somewhere on the roster for the Tigers.
Even before the injury, Faedo had yet to establish a third pitch, so it could be that he eventually makes his bones out of the bullpen. A fastball that reached 95 mph as a starter could play up out of the bullpen, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first former prospect with a slider-forward arsenal to become an impact bullpen arm. Perhaps that’s not the result the Tigers or Faedo hoped for when he was a first round pick back in 2017, but in 2022, the Tigers are going to need some farmhands to pop in unexpected places in order to make a real push for contention. If Faedo can earn his keep on the 26-man roster at some point in 2022, both team and player ought to be encouraged. That’s still a long ways off, but with his first bullpen sessions in the rearview, consider the first hurdle crossed.
Tigers Name Gary Jones First Base Coach
The Tigers announced Thursday that they’ve promoted Triple-A manager Gary Jones to the Major League staff, where he’ll serve as the team’s new first base coach. The promotion comes in the wake of the tragic death of Detroit first base coach Kimera Bartee, passed away at just 49 years of age earlier this offseason due to a brain tumor.
Jones, 61, assumes his new role under unenviable circumstances, but he’ll bring a wealth of prior coaching and managerial experience to the position. He’s spent more than three decades in professional baseball, serving as a minor league skipper with the A’s, Red Sox and Padres — where he also worked as a minor league coordinator for nearly a decade. Jones was also Oakland’s first base coach back in 1998. He also served as the Cubs’ third-base coach from 2014-17, meaning he’s no stranger to newly signed shortstop Javier Baez or to third baseman Jeimer Candelario — who debuted with the Cubs in 2016-17 before being traded to Detroit at the ’17 deadline.
Jones joins third base coach Ramon Santiago, bench coach George Lombard, hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh, assistant hitting coach Mike Hessman, pitching coach Chris Fetter, assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves and quality control coach Josh Paul in rounding out manager A.J. Hinch’s staff for the upcoming season.
Jones’ ascension to the Major League staff left a vacancy with the Triple-A Toledo MudHens, but they’ve also filled that role with a very familiar name: Lloyd McClendon. The 63-year-old McClendon managed the MudHens back in 2016, but he’s best known for his time as the big league manager with the Pirates (2001-05), Mariners (2014-15) and his stint as the Tigers’ interim manager late in the 2020 season, following Ron Gardenhire’s retirement.
McClendon also has 16 years of Major League coaching experience — most of it coming with the Tigers organization. He’s previously held the roles of bullpen coach, hitting coach and bench coach with the Tigers, working alongside managers Jim Leyland, Brad Ausmus and Gardenhire.
Francisco Liriano Announces Retirement
Left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano has announced his retirement, agent Mike Maulini tells Robert Murray of FanSided. Liriano debuted in 2005 with the Twins as a 21-year-old, and he last toed the rubber with the Pirates in 2019. All in all, Liriano appeared in 14 big-league seasons with the Twins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, and Pirates. MLBTR sends our sincere congratulations to Liriano on a long and successful career.
Liriano originally signed with the Giants as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic on September 9, 2000. He would spend his first three professional seasons in San Francisco’s minor league system, reaching High-A in 2003 before being traded to the Twins in November. The deal would prove a good one for Minnesota, who received Liriano with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan in exchange for catcher A.J. Pierzynski and cash. The deal marked the first of four times that Liriano would be traded throughout his professional career.
With the Twins, Liriano became a star. He burst onto the scene for a 96-win club in 2006, immediately crowned as the perfect sidekick/successor for ace Johan Santana. The 22-year-old threw 121 innings with a 2.16 ERA/2.55 FIP. Liriano was so impressive that he made the All-Star team, his only such appearance. Just as Liriano tantalized Minnesota’s fanbase with his electric arsenal, disaster ended the dream before it really even began: Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery in early November, knocking him out of the entirety of 2007.
He returned in 2008 to make 14 starts, posting a 3.91 ERA/3.87 FIP over 76 innings. Unfortunately, the electricity was gone from his game as his 30.4 percent strikeout rate from 2006 fell to 20.4 percent in his return season. Though some thump may have been gone from Liriano’s game, he proved to be an extremely resourceful and resilient professional, twice winning the Comeback Player of the Year award.
The first time came in 2010 when he rebounded from a difficult 2009 seasons to start 31 games and toss 191 2/3 innings with a 3.62 ERA/2.66 FIP, striking out more than 200 batters for the first time in his career. Liriano helped the Twins to 94 wins and a division title. He made just one postseason start as the Twins were bounced from the playoffs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. That club was the third division winner of the past five years, but all three were swept out of the playoffs, and they tumbled to fifth place in 2011.
They stayed there in 2012, which helped lay the groundwork for the second trade of Liriano’s career. The Twins traded Liriano to the White Sox on August 1, 2012 for Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez.
Liriano signed a somewhat surprising deal with the Pirates that offseason that turned out to be a prescient move for the Buccos. Liriano made 26 starts in his first season with the Pirates, tossing 161 innings with a 3.02 ERA/2.93 FIP, a remarkable effort that won Liriano his second Comeback Player of the Year award. Liriano proved the perfect avatar for the Pirates’ own turnaround, who won 94 games and ended a 20-season playoff drought.
Not only did Liriano help get the Pirates to the postseason, he was the winning pitcher of a one-game playoff against the Reds, tossing seven innings of one-run baseball en route to a 6-2 win. That win might be the single greatest moment in the last 30 years of Pirates baseball. Remarkably, that team boasted a rotation that included a young(er) Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, but Liriano was the ace of that staff, and he pitched like it in the postseason.
The Pirates would go up 2-1 in the NLDS before ultimately falling in a five-game loss to the Cardinals. Liriano started a game three win as well, pitching six solid innings and giving up just three hits and two runs. Liriano even walked and drove in a run with a sacrifice in that game.
Liriano and the Pirates would return to the playoffs a wild card team in each of the next two seasons, running into a pair of buzzsaws in Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta, both of whom threw complete game shutouts in their respective wild card contests. Liriano’s run in Pittsburgh was no less remarkable, however, as he posted a 3.65 ERA over 693 2/3 innings in parts of five seasons with the Pirates.
The 2016 season would mark the end of the second phase of Liriano’s career and begin the third. After a subpar start to the season for both player and team, Liriano was traded for the third time in his career. This time saw him shipped to the Blue Jays along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez in exchange for Drew Hutchison.
He was traded for the last time at the deadline the next season. The Astros acquired Liriano for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez. He shifted to the bullpen, becoming a lefty specialist and winning a World Series with the 2017 Astros. He recorded a valuable out in each of game six and game seven, retiring Cody Bellinger on both occasions.
Because of the speed at which Liriano burst onto the scene, he probably ended up being slightly underrated throughout his career, one marked by reinvention. No matter the trial, Liriano pushed through it, making 300 career starts and appearing in 419 career games, tossing 1,813 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.15 career ERA and 3.88 career FIP. He was an All-Star, a World Series winner, and he even tossed a no-hitter while a member of the Twins back in 2011. Congratulations to Liriano on a truly remarkable career.
Who’s Blocking Spencer Torkelson?
In 2019, the Detroit Tigers finished the season with a record of 47-114, easily the worst in the league that year. The silver lining in a season that bad is receiving the first overall selection in the next year’s draft. The Tigers used the first overall pick in the 2020 draft on Spencer Torkelson, a first baseman out of Arizona State University. (At the time, the club announced him as a third baseman, despite him not playing that position in college.)
Torkelson wasn’t able to play any organized ball for the Tigers that year, as the pandemic wiped out all of the minor league seasons, but 2021 was a rocketship ride up the minor league ladder. He started the year in High-A, playing 31 games and mashing at a rate of .312/.440/.569, wRC+ of 171. A promotion to a higher quality of competition in Double-A dampened his production, but only slightly. In 50 games there, he hit .263/.373/.560, for a wRC+ of 148. He was promoted yet again and got into 40 Triple-A games. Although the higher quality of pitching led to a decreased batting average, he still hit for power and drew walks, slashing .238/.350/.531, 129 wRC+. After that, he went to the Arizona Fall League but was sidelined with an ankle injury after just seven games. He is expected to be fully recovered for spring training. He is now considered the #4 prospect in all of baseball by all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs.
After that tremendous showing at all levels, he seems a virtual lock to join the big leagues in 2022, the only questions will be about the date and which position he plays. In college, Torkelson primarily played first base, with a bit of outfield work sprinkled in. But when the Tigers drafted him, they announced him as a third baseman. In 2021, he played first and third somewhat evenly to start the year, with first base taking over as the season wore on. At High-A, he got into 15 games at first and 16 at third, with his Double-A stint featuring 23 at first and 27 at third. But in Triple-A, he played first base in 37 games, none at the hot corner. However, he did get into a couple of games at third base in the Arizona Fall League before the injury.
First base would seem to be the best path to playing time for Torkelson, both because of his greater experience at the position and because of the current makeup of the Tigers’ roster. Jeimer Candelario seems to have locked himself in as the third baseman after a strong pair of seasons with the bat. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit .297/.369/.503 for a wRC+ of 138 over 52 games. Although he played more first base than third that year, he moved across the diamond in 2021, playing 142 games at third and not appearing at first at all. Statcast considered him to be a roughly league-average defender, as he finished the year at -1 Outs Above Average. He also had another good year at the plate, hitting .271/.351/.443, 119 wRC+.
The situation at first base, however, can fit Torkelson into the picture much more easily. The Tigers gave most of the first base playing time to Jonathan Schoop in 2021, as he appeared in 114 games there. But that was Schoop’s first showing at the position, as he had largely been a second baseman prior to that. He even played 38 games at the keystone last year. If Torkelson were to take over at first base, Schoop could slide back to his traditional position at second. That would create a bit of a crowd in the middle infield for the Tigers, as they signed Javier Baez to take over the shortstop position. If Schoop was getting regular playing time at second, there would be little room for younger players like Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes and Zack Short. None of those players have fully cemented themselves as everyday regulars just yet, but for a Tigers team that is looking to emerge from a lengthy rebuild, it should still be a priority to give chances for unproven players to blossom and take a step forward.
One way to help with this crowding would be to rotate these players through the designated hitter slot, giving them a bit of a rest while still getting reps in the batter’s box. However, that raises the question of how many DH at-bats will be going to Miguel Cabrera. While there’s no questioning he’s one of the greatest hitters of his generation, he hasn’t been an above-average hitter over a full season since 2016. His wRC+ dropped to 92 in 2017, then bounced back to 127 in 2018, though injuries cut his season short after just 38 games. In 2019, he dropped just below the league average of 100 again, coming in at 97. He snuck over the line in 2020 with a mark of 103, though that was the pandemic-shortened campaign. In 2021, he dropped down to 92 again.
Up until now, letting the veteran continue to play out his contract and hit career milestones hasn’t been an issue as the team hasn’t been earnestly trying to compete for some time. But push will likely come to shove at some point, as the club has already spent a lot of money this offseason in order to wipe their hands of this lengthy rebuild. Even if they don’t become AL Central favorites right out of the gate in 2022, Cabrera still has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract and will turn 39 in April. After getting 526 plate appearances in 130 games in 2021, how much rope will he get going forward? Is he destined to be squeezed out by younger players and eventually let loose in a similar manner to what happened to Albert Pujols last year? Or at least nudged into the type of bench role that Pujols settled into with the Dodgers? Cabrera is sitting on 2,987 hits and will surely be given the chance to cross the monumental 3,000 barrier, but at a certain point, the team’s desire to compete will clash with their desire for Cabrera to get the proper legacy treatment.
Regardless of how it plays out, the future seems bright for the Tigers. They have a roster with heaps of young talent that showed signs of promise in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Since then, they’ve added Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart to try and take them to the next level. With prospects like Torkelson, Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler on the way to help as well, they seem poised to be a fun and competitive team for years to come.
Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
Simply put: The Tigers are on the rise. They are going to be a popular pick to jump into the field of contenders in 2022 – and for good reason. Though a 77-85 record might not look like a team on the rise, they started the year with an 8-19 month of April and looked downright respectable the rest of the way. Following that disastrous first month, they went 69-66, finishing with their best record since 2016.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH: $72MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout on $30MM mutual option for 2024)
- Javier Baez, SS: $140MM through 2027 (with player opt-out after 2023)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: $77MM through 2026
- Tucker Barnhart, C: $7.5MM in 2022
- Jonathan Schoop, INF: $15MM through 2023
- Robbie Grossman, OF: $5MM in 2022
- 2022 commitments: $86MM
- Total long-term commitments: $316.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Michael Fulmer – $5.1MM
- Jeimer Candelario – $5.9MM
- Joe Jimenez – $1.8MM
- Jose Cisnero – $1.9MM
- Victor Reyes – $1.3MM
- Spencer Turnbull – $1.8MM
- Dustin Garneau – $1.6MM
- Harold Castro – $1.5MM
Free Agents
- Matthew Boyd, Niko Goodrum, Drew Hutchison, Grayson Greiner, Ian Krol, Derek Holland, Wily Peralta, Jose Urena, Julio Teheran
The Tigers were one of the game’s most active teams in free agency prior to the lockout. With very little long-term money on the books, and a totally clean ledger after 2023, the Tigers had the leeway and the inclination to add premier talent this winter. Though many expected the Tigers to make a play to reunite Carlos Correa and his former manager A.J. Hinch, the Tigers chose to spread their money around instead.
Javier Baez isn’t the talent that Correa is, but he’s still a monster upgrade over Niko Goodrum, who was designated for assignment and released to free agency. Baez will stabilize the infield defense and provide a fairly significant safety blanket for Detroit’s young starting staff. He’s a mixed bag at the plate, but he’s coming off a 116 wRC+ season, and if nothing else, he’s an entertainment machine. Even his glove is a little more erratic than his supporters would like to admit, but the Bengals can content themselves with knowing they had more or less a clean slate financially and a massive hole to fill at short.
Shortstop was their biggest hole to fill coming into the offseason, but GM Al Avila made positive headway in filling out the rest of the roster as well. Tucker Barnhart was losing his starting job in Cincinnati, but that’s largely because of Tyler Stephenson‘s offensive upside. Barnhart will set up camp near the bottom of the batting order, and he’s likely to stay there, but that’s not why the Tigers took on the $7.5MM he’ll be owed in 2022. Detroit’s young starting staff could use a veteran hand to guide their pitch selection and game management, and Barnhart’s reputation suggests he’s exactly the guy to do it.
Baez and Barnhart together ought to help create an ecosystem more conducive to run prevention, thereby either increasing the likelihood for success or hurrying the development for Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal. That was likely Detroit’s number one goal this offseason.
Eduardo Rodriguez is another piece of that new-and-improved ecosystem. He steps in for Matthew Boyd and ought to provide consistency to their young rotation. E-Rod’s 4.74 ERA last season is a tad misleading as a .363 BABIP helped bloat the bottom-line run prevention numbers. ERA indicators were more complimentary: 3.32 FIP, 3.65 SIERA were both career-best numbers.
Beyond veteran savvy and life experience, Rodriguez gives the Tigers an innings-eater like their rotation hasn’t had in recent years. His 157 2/3 innings would have led the Tigers, who only had Mize and Skubal finish anywhere near the 150-inning mark. Boyd was solid in his 15 starts, posting 1.4 fWAR and a 3.89 ERA/4.10 FIP, but the Tigers likely figure that E-Rod gives them a better chance of hitting those marks over a full slate. Besides, winning breeds winners, and bringing in someone like Rodriguez can help transform the clubhouse culture into one that expects W’s.
Rodriguez helps, but if the Tigers are truly going to make the leap, it will likely be because Mike, Skubal, and Manning continue their development. Mize made 30 starts but racked up just 1.3 fWAR, in part because he didn’t show much of a propensity for missing bats. Skubal boasted swing-and-miss stuff, but the southpaw was prone to giving up long balls. If Mize, Manning, and Skubal grow up this season, the Tigers will feel pretty good about their run prevention potential. In a nutshell, that’s the biggest what-if of the Tigers’ 2022 season.
The Rodriguez addition was all the more important because Spencer Turnbull remains out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Turnbull appeared to be on the verge of a breakout, but now they’re in wait-and-see mode. The same for Barnhart and Jake Rogers behind the plate.
Tyler Alexander lines up as the fifth starter for now, but the Tigers are likely to explore more starting options when the lockout ends. Rodriguez will more than likely end up as their big-ticket signing on the pitching side, but there are still plenty of veteran rotation arms that can raise the floor of Detroit’s unit.
The bullpen is another area where the Tigers will explore additions after the lockout. Michael Fulmer emerged as a weapon, saving 14 games and tossing 69 2/3 innings over 52 appearances (four starts). It’s a reinvention for Fulmer, but one that can greatly help the team. Beyond the saves, he also earned nine holds and proved himself an invaluable multi-inning firearm for manager A.J. Hinch.
Gregory Soto took on the more traditional closer’s role, but Hinch is not afraid to use the power lefty whenever he needs him most. Soto saved 18 games over 62 appearances with a 3.39 ERA/4.14 FIP. Hinch has also relied on Jose Cisnero out of the pen. The 32-year-old made 67 appearances and posted a 3.65 ERA/4.13 FIP over 61 2/3 innings.
Fulmer, Soto, and Cisnero give Avila a solid starting place when it comes to building out his bullpen, but they could use some more firepower. There are other arms in-house but expect the Tigers to put some work in here when the lockout ends. Bullpen arms might be more amenable to joining Detroit after the work that’s been put into the roster already.
Offensively, exciting times are ahead. The Detroit faithful have enjoyed the benchmark stage of Miguel Cabrera‘s Hall of Fame career, even if the 38-year-old no longer slugs with the authority of his youth. He crossed the 500 home run threshold in 2021, and he’ll get to the 3,000 hit mark early in 2020.
Cabrera might be the best hitter of his generation, and in some ways, it’s been a blessing that the Tigers have been able to line up their rebuilding years with Cabrera’s decline, thereby allowing the organization the difficult decision of when to take Cabrera out of the lineup. Cabrera played in 130 games last year and 57 out of the 60 from 2020’s shortened season. I’d be surprised if he hits 130 games again in 2022, however, as the Tigers will likely start to be a little more judicious with his playing time as they make an earnest effort for contention.
It will be a handing-off-of-the-baton type of season for Cabrera and the Tigers, who together are likely to welcome the top two prospects in Detroit’s system up to the Majors in 2022. Spencer Torkelson is the most obvious side-by-side with Cabrera, as the former number one overall pick is a bat-first corner infield prospect who has a decent chance to end up as a designated hitter eventually. For now, he’ll play first base and only occasionally snipe DH at-bats from Cabrera.
Jeimer Candelario is the third piece of the corner infield puzzle, and he fits nicely between Cabrera and Torkelson as an in-his-prime switch-hitter who only recently locked in his spot on the roster. He’s long been the Tigers third baseman, but for years it seems the former Cubs farmhand was just a placeholder.
Then 2020 happend. Candelario blasted off to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in the shortened season, and while he didn’t continue at that rate last season, he remained solidly above average, posting 3.2 fWAR and a 118 wRC+. He’s still subpar as a defensive third baseman, but now he’ll have Baez flanking him at short, which should help. Candelario and Baez actually began their professional careers together in rookie ball with the Cubs, though Baez rose quickly trough the system, while Candelario was eventually shipped to Detroit with Isaac Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.
Candelario’s long-term future is unclear, but he’s under team control for 2022 and 2023, so it seems likely he’ll stay at the hot corner for now. If Detroit falls out of the race, the Tigers could explore using Candelario as a trade piece. For now, however, his well-rounded bat is a nice cog in Detroit’s lineup. He may not excel in any one area, but he has average power (.172 ISO), a decent eye (10.4 percent walk rate), and the ability to put the ball in play (21.6 percent strikeout rate) together make up an above-average hitter.
Jonathan Schoop fits a similar mold, but with a more eager approach at the plate. Schoop doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s a legitimate plus against lefties and can hold his own otherwise. Schoop may lose some playing time as Torkelson arrives, but like Candelario, he’s a cog in a rapidly improving machine.
Robbie Grossman: same same. Grossman does everything relatively well, but an elite approach at the plate can make him even more valuable. Grossman keeps the line moving, puts up professional at-bats, and he takes his walks (14.6 percent walk rate).
All in all, the Tigers boast a working-class group of veteran bats that should prop up the baseline and give Torkelson and other young players a little bit of extra runway to find their stride.
The key player may be Riley Greene. If he can stick it in center, that will fill another huge hole in Detroit’s lineup. It’s not easy to find a centerfielder these days, making his development all the more key. Of course, Akil Baddoo may have beat him to the punch. Hinch protected the Rule 5 pick with match-ups in 2021, and it more-or-less worked (108 wRC+). Baddoo’s torching hot start did eventually cool off, but he still finished the year looking promising enough for the Tigers to give him more run in 2022.
Where they might yet add to the offense is with another corner outfielder. Baddoo can play some center along with Victor Reyes, and there are still bats out there that could fit in the middle of Detroit’s lineup. Neither Baddoo nor Reyes needs to be guaranteed a starting spot. Given the contract that they reportedly offered to Carlos Correa, the Tigers still likely have some financial flexibility, should they choose to flex it.
The Tigers have patiently waited out their rebuild, but we know from their history that when the time comes, they are willing to spend. That doesn’t mean that they’re ready to spend it all this offseason, however, so their work could mostly be done. They’ve already made significant additions to the team. They aren’t done, but it’s certainly possible that any bullpen arms, starters, or extra bats they sign will slot in below the players already added, both in a financial and potential impact sense.
Then again, the Tigers have been aggressive. When the crossbar raises and GMs are set loose to sign free agents again, don’t be shocked to see Detroit hit the ground running. Big names have and are coming through the minor league system, but it’s not the deepest farm in the league, so if Detroit wants to make sure they meet expectations and become the cinderella darling of 2022, we might see more free agents changing their address to Motor City.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/14/22
A few more minor league signings to supplement the recent flurry of minor league deals around the league…
- The Tigers are bringing back right-handed pitcher Ricardo Pinto after he spent all of the 2021 season in Detroit’s minor league ranks. Pinto was previously a prospect of some note, pitching in the 2016 Futures Game in the Phillies organization before making his Major League debut a year later. A tough debut season has resulted in a whirlwind few years, as Pinto has since been stashed on various teams’ Triple-A rosters and made a tour through the KBO League in 2020. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year the right-hander pitched to a 4.29 ERA in 123 innings (23 starts), with solid peripherals dipping upon reaching Triple-A.
- The Braves have re-signed infielder Ryan Goins to a minor league pact. The 33-year-old Goins saw a good chunk of big league action from 2013-2017, serving as an oft-used utility player in Toronto. He’s bounced between a trio of teams since then, last suiting up at the major league level for the White Sox in 2020. The left-handed hitter will bring his versatile glove back to the Atlanta organization, where he spent all of his time last year in Triple-A.
- Drew Jackson and Christian Bethancourt are joining the A’s for the first time. Both players are incredibly versatile, as Jackson appeared everywhere but the catcher position for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate last year. The 28-year-old Jackson sported a patient .251/.397/.424 line across 85 games, chipping in nine home runs and 24 stolen bases (in 27 tries). The 30-year-old Bethancourt was once a frequenter of top prospect lists as a catcher in Atlanta’s talent pipeline, but has recently bounced around trying to cut it as a two-way player. The pitching project didn’t gain much traction last year but the rest of the catcher’s play was encouraging, as he fielded four positions and slashed a solid .281/.339/.468 with 14 home runs across 92 games for the Pirates’ Triple-A team.