Free Agent Profiles

Free Agent Profile: Corey Hart

By Steve Adams | October 23, 2013 at 4:48pm CDT

After converting to the Brewers' full-time first baseman midway through the 2012 campaign, Corey Hart was expected to miss the season's first month due to offseason microfracture surgery on his right knee. Setbacks in his recovery would end up pushing his return date back, and Hart would ultimately injure his other knee, leading to another surgery that cost Hart the entirety of the 2013 season. Hart is now set to hit free agency more than 12 months removed from his last Major League game.

Strengths/Pros

Power is Hart's biggest asset when healthy. He's posted an ISO north of .225 each season from 2010-12, averaging 29 homers per season in each of those campaigns. In fact, dating back to 2010, the only free agents with an ISO greater than Hart's mark of .235 are Mike Napoli and Curtis Granderson.

While he's much better against left-handed pitching (as is the case with many right-handed sluggers), Hart still handles same-handed pitching quite well. From 2010-12, Hart posted an .822 OPS and 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

Hart will turn 32 years old next March, so while he's on the wrong side of his prime, he's young enough that there's no need to expect a sharp decline in his skills. Because he didn't play in 2013, he's not going to receive a qualifying offer and should only command a one-year deal on the free agent market. Hart offers as much raw power as nearly any free agent on the market, but will come at a fraction of the price in terms of years and dollars, without requiring a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hart was never an elite right fielder, but after a move to first base in 2012 and what has turned into a severe knee injury, his days in the outfield could be over. If that's the case, and Hart is limited to first base, he doesn't bring much in the way of defensive value. In his brief career at first, Hart has graded out as a poor defender.

Hart's power levels jumped in 2010, and he's been able to sustain those elevated levels, but it's come with an increased strikeout rate as well. Hart struck out in nearly 23 percent of his plate appearances from 2010-12, and he's never been one to take many walks (career 7.1 percent walk rate).

It's also no guarantee that Hart will come back as the same player he was in 2010-12. He's a buy-low candidate for teams in need of power, but should a contending team feel comfortable banking on Hart to hold down a spot in the middle of the order? The Rangers went a similar route with Lance Berkman this past offseason and received little return on that investment.

Personal

Corey is known as a strong family man. He and his wife, Kristina, have two daugters and two sons together. He has been active within the Wisconsin community, participating in charity funds for the Girl Scouts of Milwaukee Area, the Girls of Summer Softball League, the Wisconsin American Legion, Stomp Out Spit Tobacco, Make-A-Wish and more.

Market

Hart has already said that he'd take a discount to return to Milwaukee — the team that drafted him in 2000 and the only organization that he has ever known. The matchup makes sense, too, given the Brewers' lack of a clear internal candidate to man the position. Milwaukee deployed a combination of Alex Gonzalez, Juan Francisco, Yuniesky Betancourt, Sean Halton and Blake Lalli at the position in 2013 and received a ghastly .211/.256/.359 batting line. The Brewers' collective wRC+ of 64 was the worst in all of baseball at first base, making a reunion with their longest-tenured player an attractive option.

Sticking in the midwest, the Twins lack an obvious first base candidate and could afford to take a flier on Hart. He'd be a nice trade chip for their rebuilding efforts should they sell pieces next July. The Indians could deploy Hart at first base and move Nick Swisher back to the outfield, moving Drew Stubbs into a fourth outfielder role. Elsewhere around the league, the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, Pirates and Rockies all have uncertainty at first base/designated hitter. And with Jose Dariel Abreu now committed to the White Sox on a six-year deal, Hart's competition on the open market has decreased.

Expected Contract

An incentive-laden one-year deal seems likely, and it makes sense for both Hart and his suitors. Interested teams aren't likely to be comfortable guaranteeing multiple years for Hart, and he's young enough to cash in on a strong season and earn a multiyear pact next winter.

Hart earned $10MM in 2013 but could have to take a pay cut. Berkman was able to land a $10MM base salary plus a $1MM buyout on his $12MM option for 2014, but he at least played in 32 games in 2012. Hart, on the other hand, never took the field and is coming off surgery on both knees, making the Berkman deal a lofty open-market goal for he and agent Jeff Berry of CAA.

His track record from 2010-12 is still strong though, and right-handed power is in scarce supply beyond Hart, Napoli, Byrd and Nelson Cruz. Ultimately, I think Hart could command a one-year, $8MM contract on the open market with another $2-4MM worth of incentives. If he's serious about taking a discount to stay with the Brewers, he may play for slightly less than that and settle for a $6MM base salary as a show of good faith to the only organization he's ever called home.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Beltran

By Steve Adams | October 23, 2013 at 8:54am CDT

His mind is on the World Series right now, but within weeks, Carlos Beltran's focus will shift to the offseason. The 36-year-old will head into free agency for the third time in his career, this time sporting a .296/.339/.491 batting line with 24 homers in his walk season.

Strengths/Pros

Beltran is a dangerous hitter, plain and simple. Over the past eight seasons, he's averaged a 135 OPS+ and 31 homers per 162 games, and he posted a 128 OPS+ in 2013. Among qualified free agent position players, only Robinson Cano, Marlon Byrd and Shin-Soo Choo have a higher wRC+ than Beltran's 132 (and Byrd, of course, is no lock to repeat that feat). Based on those numbers, Beltran was somewhere between 28 and 32 percent better than a league-average hitter this season.

For someone with so much power, Beltran is actually pretty difficult to strike out. He whiffed in just 15 percent of his plate appearances in 2013 — a mark that was bested by only Nate McLouth and Jacoby Ellsbury among free agent outfielders (assuming, of course, that Coco Crisp's option is exercised).

Interested parties can land Beltran's strong production for a fraction of the price that Choo will command as a free agent or Hunter Pence commanded in his extension. The largest deal Beltran could realistically hope for would likely be for three years, and even that's a stretch, given his age. In that regard, the fact that he turns 37 next April is actually somewhat of a positive.

Beltran has a reputation for being injury prone, but he's played in at least 140 games in 12 of 15 seasons dating back to 2001. He's averaged 146 games over the past three years, quieting those who thought he was finished after playing in just 145 total games from 2009-10. A move to the American League, where he could DH occasionally, would likely keep him in the lineup even more often.

Beltran's camp can also point to his lifetime .337/.449/.724 postseason slash line and 16 homers in just 45 playoff games.

Weaknesses/Cons

The other side of the coin for Beltran's age is that committing multiple years to a player that's about to turn 37 is a risk, especially one who comes with Beltran's injury history. Players break down in their older age, and it's not as if Beltran is without signs of decline.

After walking in just over 13 percent of his plate appearances from 2008-09, Beltran's walk rate dipped to about 12 percent from 2010-11, then 10.5 percent in 2012 before plummeting to 6.3 percent in 2013. The resulting .339 OBP was his lowest mark since 2005. He also showed an uncharacteristic platoon split in 2013, hitting lefties at just a .252/.281/.448 clip.

Defensively, Beltran has graded out below average for several years now, but 2013 was particularly unsightly. Beltran's -18.7 UZR/150 was fourth-lowest among all qualified position players, and The Fielding Bible's assessment of -6 defensive runs saved, while an improvement, isn't much of an endorsement either.

Beltran is a candidate to receive a $14.1MM qualifying offer from the Cardinals, which could damage his market as well. Teams will like his overall offensive package, but there's enough risk in committing dollars and years to a 37-year-old with declining plate discipline and defensive skills that the loss of a first- or second-round pick may cause some teams to back off.

Personal

Carlos and his wife Jessica are prolific community activists. Beltran's passion for education led to the founding of the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy in his native Puerto Rico. The academy is a high school for the island's top baseball prospects and places an emphasis on teaching them English — an opportunity Beltran didn't have prior to being drafted. Beltran has been active within the New York and St. Louis communities as well, recently starting a scholarship fund in St. Louis that provides eight underprivileged Hispanic youths with college scholarships. On the field, he's seen as a leader by his teammates and enjoys offering advice on hitting and outfield positioning. Carlos and Jessica have two daughters and make their offseason home in Puerto Rico.

Market

The Cardinals have Oscar Taveras as the heir-apparent in right field, though they could put Taveras in center and attempt to retain Beltran as their right fielder. That move would push Jon Jay out of the picture and make him a trade candidate, as someone would likely still want him around at his projected $4.4MM salary.

While many teams in the National League will still show interest, an AL team would probably be willing to offer Beltran more money knowing that they could stash him at DH on at least a part-time basis. Beltran's already been connected to the Yankees, as there's reportedly mutual interest between the two parties. Beyond that, the Royals' black hole in right field could lead to interest in a reunion. The Rangers and Orioles are two more teams that have question marks at corner outfield spots as well as in their respective designated hitter roles. The Rays could use more offense, but he's likely to be too pricey for their budget. Plus, playing 90 games on artificial turf between Tropicana Field and the road trips to the Rogers Centre probably isn't in the best interest for an aging outfielder with a history of knee issues.

Expected Contract

Agent Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group could start out seeking three years for Beltran, given his strong offensive numbers. Lozano can pitch to AL teams that some extra time at DH will keep Beltran's bat in the lineup and could boost his homer total back over 30, but three-year deals for players of Beltran's age are few and far between. Raul Ibanez managed to land one from the Phillies, but that proved to be an ill-fated deal by its completion, and Beltran would certainly require more than the $10.5MM annual value that Ibanez received.

Beltran's two-year, $26MM contract with the Cards helped set the bar for aging veterans like Torii Hunter, Chase Utley and David Ortiz. I'd expect that he can sign a similar contract this time around, perhaps with a slight raise given his overall solid production in St. Louis. A two-year, $30MM contract would give Beltran nearly the same guarantee that Ibanez received over his three-year deal while minimizing the risk, in terms of contract length, for the signing team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Joaquin Benoit

By Steve Adams | October 19, 2013 at 3:06pm CDT

Signed to be a setup man for All-Star closer Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit found himself assuming his former teammate's role in 2013 after the Tigers endured significant ninth inning problems early in the season. The 36-year-old didn't miss a beat in his new role, turning in the second best ERA+ of his career (209) and racking up 24 saves. Benoit will head into free agency coming off a season in which he posted a 2.01 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 67 innings.

Strengths/Pros

Like many of today's late-inning specialists, Benoit makes his money by racking up strikeouts. He's fanned 295 batters against just 72 walks over his past 259 2/3 innings at the big league level. Benoit maybe 36 years old, but his velocity is as strong as ever. His 94.1 mph average fastball trails only Joel Hanrahan, Fernando Rodney, Matt Lindstrom, Joba Chamberlain and Jesse Crain among free agent right-handed relievers. Unlike Hanrahan and Crain, Benoit isn't coming off a serious injury. Unlike Chamberlain, he's enjoyed a dominant season.

In addition to strong velocity, Benoit's swinging-strike rate is the best in among free agent relievers. Opposing batters swing through 13.6 percent of his pitches; his changeup is his best pitch, with hitters whiffing at the pitch 24.7 percent of the time he threw it in 2013 (a mark that best's Rodney's 23.5 percent mark).

Over the past four seasons, the only potential free agents who have appeared in more games than Benoit are Matt Belisle and Chad Qualls. Belisle has a $4.25MM club option, making it more likely that Benoit hits the market as one of the two most durable relief arms since 2010. Despite his dominance, it's highly unlikely that the Tigers make a qualifying offer and risk his salary jumping from $5.5MM to $14MM. He won't be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Benoit's been durable for the past four seasons, but he was out of baseball entirely in 2009 thanks to surgery on his right rotator cuff. From 2003-09, Benoit had four separate DL stints for shoulder-related ailments and two DL stints for right elbow issues. Neither joint has been an issue for Benoit since 2009, but it's tough to completely look past that type of injury history when looking at a multiyear deal for a 36-year-old reliever.

Benoit's walk rates have been great since returning from that shoulder surgery, but his BB/9 has risen each season since posting a stellar 1.6 BB/9 in 2010. He jumped to 2.5 in 2011, 2.8 in 2012 and 3.0 in 2013.

Benoit posted a 4.38 ERA in September, and he's allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings of postseason work thus far. He won't have the benefit a strong finish heading into free agency.

Personal

Benoit resides in his hometown of Santiago in the Dominican Republic each offseason. He has a daughter and is active in the Detroit community, participating in campaigns such as Tigers Dreams Come True and the Tigers Autographed Memoribilia Program.

Market

The Tigers deployed Benoit as their closer for much of the season with great success, and his departure means they'll have a void in the ninth inning. Internal candidates Jose Veras and Bruce Rondon could be looked at as cheaper alternatives, but it stands to reason that the Tigers will show interest in re-upping Benoit after three strong years with the club.

Benoit will see serious competition in the form of Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour and Rodney. Like Benoit, all three right-handers are strikeout machines with ninth inning experience that will pitch next season at 36 years of age or older. Unfortunately for Benoit, his ninth inning experience is more limited than that group of peers, and right or wrong, some teams will still pay for saves on the open market. Agent Jamie Appel of ACES can, however, point to the fact that Benoit is younger than Rodney and Nathan and offers better command than Balfour.

Expected Contract

In a recent edition of MLBTR's Free Agent Faceoff series, I compared Benoit and Balfour side-by-side, and more than 69 percent of the 5,600 respondents said they would prefer to sign Balfour. Whether or not that matches the perception among teams remains to be seen.

Benoit was in a better position before it was learned that Nathan is able to void the $9.5MM option on his contract and before Brian Wilson came back strong with the Dodgers. Despite the fact that he has more competition than originally anticipated, however, his dominant performance over the past four seasons should leave him with no problem in securing a multiyear deal.

Tim Dierkes predicted that Nathan, one of Benoit's chief competitors on the open market, will receive a two-year, $26MM pact. Benoit doesn't have near the same track record that Nathan possesses, but he figures to command a two-year deal of his own at a lesser rate, and something in the vicinity of two years and $16MM sounds right for Benoit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Grant Balfour

By Steve Adams | October 18, 2013 at 8:51am CDT

Most relievers don't have to wait until age 34 to get their first crack at a closing gig, but the wait has been worth it for Grant Balfour. The Aussie right-hander missed two full seasons thanks to Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery following a promising debut with the Twins in his age 25-26 seasons. He rediscovered himself in Tampa Bay before heading to the A's in 2011. Balfour was handed the ninth inning in his second season with Oakland, and has racked up 62 saves from 2012-13 for the back-to-back AL West champions.

Strengths/Pros

Strikeouts are the name of the game for Balfour, and few free agent relievers have been better than him in 2013. Balfour's 10.8 K/9 trails only Jesse Crain, Fernando Rodney and Carlos Marmol among impending free agent relievers. Crain comes with health concerns, Marmol's struggles are well documented and Rodney's a year older with inferior command.

Balfour doesn't have the near-95-mph fastball average that he had in his best season with the Rays (2008), but his 2013 average of 93.4 mph is plenty respectable. It's also his best mark since that dominant 2008 season, so his stuff isn't in a state of decline.

While Balfour clearly had injury problems early on in his career, he hasn't hit the disabled list with an arm injury since his 2006 shoulder surgery. He's appeared in at least 57 games in each of the past six seasons.

Balfour lived up to his somewhat ironic last name early in his career, averaging 4.7 walks per nine innings in parts of six seasons from 2001-09. However, since that time he's averaged just 3.3 walks per nine while striking out more than a batter per inning. He hasn't posted a single-season ERA north of 2.59 since 2009, and he won't be tied to draft pick compensation, as the cost-conscious A's won't risk offering a $14MM qualifying offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

As previously mentioned, Balfour's been healthy for each of the past two seasons, but he does have a long list of injuries throughout his career. He underwent knee surgery this past offseason to repair a torn meniscus, and he spent time on the DL with oblique and intercostal strains in 2010 and 2011. While a great deal of his injuries are in the past, a 36-year-old reliever that's gone under the knife three times does come with some risk.

His command has been solid over the past four seasons, but ihis BB/9 mark has actually crept upward incrementally since 2010. While he's still considerably better than he was early on in his career, Balfour's 3.9 BB/9 in 2013 is on the high side. He's also uncorked nine wild pitches in 2013 despite entering the season with just 12 in his entire career.

Impressive as Balfour's overall numbers are in recent years, much of those numbers come from a significant home/road split. O.co Colliseum is one of the game's most pitcher-friendly environments, and Balfour has a 1.58 ERA in 113 2/3 innings there, compared to a more pedestrian 3.78 ERA in 85 2/3 innings on the road. He's averaged 0.71 HR/9 at home and 1.05 HR/9 on the road. Teams in smaller parks may be wary of Balfour, whose career ground-ball rate is just 35.2 percent.

Personal

Balfour is known as an intense, fiery competitor and often shouts (and curses) to himself on the mound to get his adrenaline flowing. Sports are in his blood, as the A's media guide tells us that his father was a rugby player in their native Australia and is now the general manager of the Australian Baseball League's Sydney Blue Sox. Balfour played rugby as well through college and spent much of his amateur career as a catcher. He and his wife, Angie, have a daughter together.

Market

Balfour will have plenty of competition on the open market with Rodney, Joe Nathan, Joaquin Benoit and Brian Wilson all hitting free agency as well. Balfour doesn't lead that group in strikeouts, control, fastball velocity or saves, but agent Keith Miller of ACES can point to the fact that his client possesses the best mix of youth and health among those peers. Though he turns 36 in December, he's younger than Nathan, Benoit and Rodney, and unlike Wilson, Balfour isn't coming off of a major surgical procedure.

For what it's worth, 69 percent of respondents in the recent Free Agent Faceoff that I conducted between Balfour and Benoit felt that Balfour was the superior option.

He recently acknowledged how important it was for him to pitch a clean ninth inning in Game 5 of the ALDS, even though the A's were losing, as he knew it could have been his last appearance for the A's. Oakland will obviously have a place for him, but he could be too spendy for the A's after two strong seasons as a closer. Balfour earned just $12.25MM over the course of his three years with the A's, but the price tag will be higher now. If not Oakland, he could be a fit for the Tigers, Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Brewers or Rockies. The Orioles and Indians could be in the mix as well, should either team decide to non-tender its high-priced incumbent.

Expected Contract

Following the 2011 season, Nathan was able to secure a two-year, $14.5MM contract with the Rangers coming off an uninspiring return season from Tommy John surgery. Balfour's recent injury history isn't as concerning, and he's hitting the market a year younger than Nathan was at that time. While he doesn't have Nathan's track record as one of the game's elite closers, I expect that agent Miller will consider Nathan's old contract the floor for his client — and rightfully so.

Relievers rarely get three guaranteed years at this stage of their careers. Heath Bell managed three years and $27MM, but he did so as he was entering his age-35 season. Balfour will begin next season as a 36-year-old, but should be able to match Bell in terms of average annual value. I expect that Balfour will end up signing a two-year, $18MM contract, perhaps with a vesting or club option that will allow him to match Bell's contract if he remains healthy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: A.J. Burnett

By Steve Adams | October 17, 2013 at 10:46am CDT

When the Yankees were able to obtain some salary relief and a pair of warm bodies (Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones) for the final two years of A.J. Burnett's contract, many in New York celebrated the move. Burnett had struggled in his second and third years with the Bombers, but the Pirates were optimistic. As GM Neal Huntington recently explained to me, Pittsburgh scouts saw a "plus pitch package" in Burnett, and he checked out favorably in several metrics on which they place an emphasis. Burnett has resurfaced as a top-of-the-rotation arm with the Bucs and is now set to hit free agency entering his age-37 season. He's still not sure whether he'll retire or continue his career, but let's examine his free agency under the assumption that he chooses to play…

Strengths/Pros

There's perhaps no better trio of skills for a starting pitcher to possess than the ability to miss bats, the ability to induce ground-balls and the ability to limit walks. Burnett has all three of those. His 9.8 K/9 rate led the Senior Circuit, and his 10.6 percent swinging-strike rate tied him with Stephen Strasburg for ninth in the NL. Burnett's 56.5 percent ground-ball rate was tops among qualified NL starters as well, and his 3.2 BB/9 mark, while a bit behind the MLB average of 2.8 for starters, is plenty respectable.

The more sabermetrically inclined crowd will appreciate the fact that Burnett's 2.80 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA all lead this year's crop of free agent starting pitchers. His 4.0 fWAR trail only James Shields and Jon Lester among possible free agents, and each of those hurlers is a lock to have his club option exercised, preventing them from hitting the open market. Simply put, advanced metrics are in love with Burnett.

However, the more traditional set of stats will tell us that Burnett was quite good in 2013 as well. He totaled a 3.30 ERA in 191 innings of work and held opponents to a paltry .231/.304/.335, essentially reducing every hitter he faced to the equivalent of Kevin Frandsen (.234/.296/.341) or Eric Young (.249/.310/.336).

The Pirates love Burnett, but a $14.1MM salary might be steep for their modest payroll, especially with big arbitration raises in store for Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Melancon and Charlie Morton. That group figures to earn a collective $9.2MM more than in 2013, and with built-in raises for Andrew McCutchen, Jason Grilli, Russell Martin and Franciso Liriano in store, a qualifying offer seems unlikely for Burnett. As such, he shouldn't require a draft pick to sign.

Weaknesses/Cons

Burnett has been more healthy in recent years, but there's no overlooking the fact that he'll be 37 on Opening Day next year and has 11 different stints on the big league DL under his belt. The only recent DL stint that wasn't due to a fluke injury was the calf strain that cost him four weeks of his 2013 season, but Burnett's body has a lot of wear and tear on it.

Excellent as he's been lately, Burnett's detractors will point to his time in New York and much of his time in Toronto and say that he simply isn't the same pitcher in the American League when he doesn't have the benefit of facing opposing pitchers. Burnett has a career 3.63 ERA in the NL (3.41 in his most recent 393 innings with Pittsburgh) but a 4.39 ERA In the AL. The 5.20 ERA he posted in his final two seasons with the Yankees, in particular, could give AL clubs pause.

There's also the fact that, right or wrong, Burnett's free agency may be tarnished by his most recent results. Burnett made just one postseason appearance with the Pirates — a two-inning, seven-run shellacking at Busch Stadium. That performance and his historic struggles at Busch Stadium led manager Clint Hurdle to start rookie Gerrit Cole over Burnett in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS. Burnett would have liked to prove that he could defeat the Cardinals on the road and send his team to the NLCS, but he's instead left with a simple "what if" as he and agent Darek Braunecker of Frontline Sports Management talk with interested clubs in the offseason.

Personal

Burnett has two children, Ashton and Allan Jr., with his wife Karen. The pitcher helped to endorse the Adam Walsh Children’s Fund and the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children while playing in Miami in 2001 and 2002 and also served as the national spokesman for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

Market

Burnett has gone on record recently as saying he's 50-50 on retiring, and he wants to end his Major League career as a Pirate. Those comments were made before the team's disappointing departure from the postseason, so perhaps Burnett will return for another year, fueled by a desire to lead the Bucs to a World Series and redeem himself for his postseason miscue. It's hard to imagine him signing anywhere else, but contending teams looking at one-year rotation pieces like the Nationals and Dodgers may still call in the offseason to gauge their chances. The Pirates have said they will do everything in their power to retain Burnett, and they're clearly the runaway favorites to land him — if he pitches.

Expected Contract

Burnett has earned more than $120MM in his career, according to Baseball-Reference.com, so he may not seek to maximize his salary, especially not with the Pirates' tight payroll. I have no doubt that if he wanted to hit the open market in search of a two-year deal, Burnett could surpass Ryan Dempster's $26.5MM guarantee over that same term. However, given his uncertainty toward pitching in 2014, it seems unlikely that he'd want to lock himself into a contract for 2015 as well. As such, I expect that Burnett will sign a one-year, $12MM contract with the Pirates or simply call it a career this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Joe Nathan

By Tim Dierkes | October 16, 2013 at 12:32pm CDT

Only a legendary reliever could post a 1.39 ERA that isn't even his career-best. Joe Nathan did just that for the Rangers in 2013, proving he's still elite at age 38. After finishing 62 games in 2012 and 61 in '13, Nathan earned the right to void a $9MM club option and become a free agent, which he's expected to do.

Strengths/Pros

With Mariano Rivera's retirement, Nathan ranks first on the active career saves leaderboard with 341. That number ties him for tenth all-time with Rollie Fingers, and Nathan can reasonably ascend to sixth all-time by the end of a two-year contract. He became a full-time reliever in 2003, posting a 2.24 ERA and 3.94 K/BB ratio in 671 1/3 innings since then. Nathan, who spent the bulk of his career with the Twins, has racked up six All-Star nods. He's saved at least 37 games in eight different seasons. His career save percentage is 90.0, the best in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 saves. Nathan has been one of the best relievers of the entire save era.

Nathan had Tommy John surgery in March 2010, and his final year with the Twins in '11 was a consolidation year as he returned from the procedure. From 2012-13 for the Rangers, he posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.63 HR/9 in 129 regular season innings. He made the All-Star team both years, saving 80 games in total. Among relievers with 100 innings during that time, his ERA ranks seventh. Only four pitchers saved more games.

Outside of the elbow surgery, Nathan has rarely been injured, consistently pitching at least 64 innings per year.

Qualifying offers for relievers figure to remain rare, though Nathan has a chance at one. Most likely, the Rangers won't risk a potential $14.1MM commitment and won't make the offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

Nathan will pitch at age 39 next year. Outside of Rivera, who is in a class by himself, there have been only seven instances since 1980 of pitcher age 39 or older saving 30 games in a season. Dennis Eckersley did it twice, and Trevor Hoffman did it three times. I explained above that Nathan is a legendary closer in his own right, so he belongs with those names, but it will still be a risky multiyear commitment at significant dollars. Agent Dave Pepe can counter the age concerns by pointing out that his client is a workout fanatic.

Nathan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings this year, his worst rate since '03. He walked over four per nine in the second half, even with a strong September finish. It might be nothing more than a blip, but the increased walk rate is worth considering.

Nathan's groundball rate this year was just 32%. It may seem like nitpicking, as Nathan surrendered only two home runs in his 64 2/3 innings. However, most relievers with a groundball rate similar to Nathan's allowed around one home run per nine innings, as Nathan did in 2012. Home run prevention is one area in which we should not expect Nathan to be elite moving forward.

Personal

Nathan, his wife, and two children reside in Knoxville, Tennessee. He graduated from SUNY-Stony Brook in '97 with a degree in business management. Known for his intelligence, Nathan will receive an honorary doctorate from the university in December. His hobbies include golf and playing the guitar.

Market

Though he committed two years to a 37-year-old Nathan coming off his worst season, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters this month that giving multiple years to relievers has never been the team's preference, and the situation was different that offseason. While a return to the Rangers can't be ruled out, it seems the Rangers might choose to allocate their resources toward other players and save some money in the ninth inning.

Nathan projects as a closer on a large-market, win-now team. The Yankees, Tigers, and perhaps the Angels might be the only teams that fit that criteria and aren't locked in at closer. The Dodgers or Red Sox could work, but both clubs would have to demote relievers coming off dominant seasons. The Orioles or Indians could enter the mix, non-tendering or trading Jim Johnson or Chris Perez given arbitration projections in the $11MM and $9MM ranges for their closers, respectively. Pepe could face a situation similar to that of Rafael Soriano, whose market was limited by his price tag. Eventually, Scott Boras leveraged his ownership connections to land two separate big-money mid-January contracts for Soriano, even though the closer came with a draft pick cost attached.

Teams seeking closers will have other options beyond Nathan, including free agents Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Fernando Rodney.

Expected Contract

Nathan will be voiding his option in search of a multiyear deal, but three years is difficult to picture given his age. Rivera's two-year, $30MM deal signed after the 2010 season is Nathan's ceiling. Soriano's two-year, $28MM pact could be another point of reference, though that contract has heavy deferrals and a vesting option, and covers the pitcher's age 33-34 seasons. Ultimately I think Nathan will sign a two-year, $26MM deal with a club option for 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu

By Tim Dierkes | October 15, 2013 at 3:17pm CDT

Is Jose Dariel Abreu MLB's next Cuban sensation? Abreu, who turns 27 in January, defected from Cuba in August and is now free to sign with any team. He has a good chance to sign the largest contract ever for a Cuban player, topping Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM deal. Every team had some kind of scouting presence at Abreu's early October showcase, reported Baseball America's Ben Badler.

Strengths/Pros

Abreu put up huge numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional as well as in international tournaments. His calling card is power, prompting Athletics assistant GM David Forst to say to Grantland's Jonah Keri in February 2012, "There are legitimate comparisons to Ryan Howard." Badler elaborated in August this year, "Abreu is a physically imposing righthanded hitter with tremendous raw power to all fields." In an ESPN article, former GM Jim Bowden gave Abreu a 70 hit tool and 70 for power on the scouting scale, after talking to "a few execs and scouts who have seen him play." One scout told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick Abreu has "monstrous power." Many different reports suggest Abreu could hit 30 home runs for an MLB team right away, a level no free agent reached in 2013. Given the scouting grade on his power, it seems possible Abreu could reach 40 in a season at some point during his contract.

Since Abreu will play in 2014 at age 27, he's younger than every significant free agent hitter. A six-year deal could still catch a large portion of his prime, which is unlikely to be the case with any other free agent.

If they reach the open market, many of the top free agent power bats have a good chance of requiring the sacrifice of a draft pick to sign: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann. Abreu will not require the loss of a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

If Abreu has a few vintage Ryan Howard or David Ortiz-caliber seasons during his contract, he should easily be worth $50-60MM, and could provide an excellent return on investment. MLB executives are drooling at the thought. There have been some less-than-glowing reports about Abreu's overall hitting ability, however.

Abreu's bat speed was questioned in a pair of excellent reports from Badler and Crasnick, and there are multiple scouts who feel he will struggle against hard fastballs inside. Crasnick talked to a scout who described Abreu as a less-athletic Dayan Viciedo, a player with a .264/.306/.432 line in over 1,200 big league plate appearances. In sum, Viciedo has been about replacement level for his career. The scout felt that Abreu has more power than Kendrys Morales, but is a worse hitter. There are few questions about Abreu's power, but will he be able to hit for average or draw a walk? Badler has noted that scouts and teams have extensive history watching Abreu, but based on reports, it's unclear whether they project him over or under Morales' .333 career OBP.

Reports vary on Abreu's ability to contribute beyond his bat. One scout told Crasnick Abreu is "all bat," an Edgar Martinez type, while another felt he could be a solid first baseman. The bar is raised for a bat-only player, and it's certainly possible to hit 25-30 home runs and still be replacement level, as Raul Ibanez did this year. As far as young DHs go, Billy Butler has a .298/.364/.459 line in seven seasons, yet has never had a season in which he was worth three wins above replacement. Still, if Abreu settles in as a two-win player, he'll be worth a $10MM salary.

At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Abreu is not nearly the athlete Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes is, though Crasnick says Abreu has ramped up his conditioning of late. He's still likely to be a negative in baserunning.

Personal

Abreu is married and has a son, and I've heard he is a relatively quiet player who takes a professional approach to his job. Abreu is more grounded than Puig and is considered a "good kid" in scouting circles, according to Crasnick. Abreu's good friend Henry Urrutia, an outfielder for the Orioles, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, "He's a humble man and he comes from a rural area of hard-working people." Abreu has a "fun-loving personality," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.

Market

The top end of the free agent market for first basemen includes Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, both of whom seem likely to come with a draft pick cost attached. Badler talked to scouts who preferred Napoli to Abreu, but it's far from a slam dunk. Though Abreu has been scouted extensively, I still believe some teams will be seduced by the allure of the unknown, as it's easier to dream about Abreu hitting 40 home runs than Napoli or Morales, partially because Abreu has never played in the Majors.

Unlike typical free agents, Abreu is free to sign now and already held a showcase, so rumors are plentiful. The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, Pirates, Orioles, and Mets have been linked to Abreu to varying degrees, and Badler says the first five teams had the strongest presence at his showcase in the Dominican Republic. Abreu's market is not limited to win-now teams, given his age. The Marlins, in particular, are "all-in" on Abreu, wrote MLB.com's Joe Frisaro in early October. They sent GM Dan Jennings to his showcase, and already have two of Abreu's countrymen on the roster in Jose Fernandez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Expected Contract

Predicting Abreu's contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player's goals. Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency. Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance. Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I've projected a three-year, $42MM contract. Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won't cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain. $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu's ceiling. Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

Free Agent Profile: Josh Johnson

By Tim Dierkes | October 14, 2013 at 10:52pm CDT

Before the season began, Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson ranked third on my Free Agent Power Rankings, which serves as an example of how tantalizing his abilities can be. He lasted four starts before hitting the DL with triceps tightness. He returned over a month later and made another dozen starts before a forearm injury ended his season. On October 1st, Johnson had arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies and a bone spur in his elbow, and he's expected to be ready for Spring Training. Let's take a look at his free agent prospects after the lost season.

Pros/Strengths

Johnson is one of the hardest-throwing free agent starters, as his average fastball velocity of 92.8 miles per hour this year was bested only by Garza. He finished fourth in strikeouts per nine innings at 9.18. Even in a year in which almost nothing went right, Johnson still threw hard and whiffed more than a batter per inning.

Prior to 2013, Johnson had a reputation of a pitcher who would spend some time on the DL, but would be excellent when he was on the mound. He posted a 3.14 ERA over 904 1/3 innings from 2006-12. During that time period, his ERA ranked sixth in all of baseball among those with at least 800 innings. Johnson pitched like an ace for the Marlins from 2009-10, with a 2.80 ERA over 392 2/3 innings. Only four pitchers were better. He made the All-Star team in both seasons, and finished fifth in the 2010 NL Cy Young voting after posting a 2.30 ERA.

Given his rough 2013 campaign, Johnson is highly unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, so he won't come with a draft pick cost attached.

Johnson's recent elbow surgery could be construed as a positive, as Dr. James Andrews told the pitcher he thought the bone spurs were the cause of his struggles this year, agent Matt Sosnick told MLBTR.

Weaknesses/Cons

Johnson is a starting pitcher who tossed fewer than 1,000 innings over an eight-year span, as he's been injured a ton. In 2006, his first full season, he was done on September 12th due to a forearm strain. He began the '07 season on the DL with ulnar nerve irritation in his right biceps. After beginning his season in June of that year, he made four starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in August. His recovery was short, as he was back on a Major League mound in less than a year.

Johnson was injury-free in '09, and signed a four-year extension after that season. Though he technically avoided the DL in his fantastic 2010 campaign, his last start came on September 4th due to shoulder inflammation and a back strain. He hit the DL with shoulder inflammation in May 2011, and wasn't able to return from the injury that year, finishing with only nine starts. The mostly-healthy 2009-10 seasons showed Johnson bounced back well from Tommy John surgery, but '11 reintroduced the idea that he was injury-prone. He bounced back in 2012, avoiding the DL and making 31 starts. Johnson didn't pitch at his previous ace level, but he re-established enough hope to be a major part of the November blockbuster with Toronto.

As mentioned in the introduction of this post, Johnson endured separate injuries in 2013 involving his triceps and elbow, culminating in surgery. He made a lot of bad pitches, allowing 11.6 hits and 1.66 home runs per nine innings, leading to a career-worst 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings. Even if we give him a pass for Tommy John surgery early in his career, Johnson has had three healthy seasons in the last five. He hasn't had an ace-caliber healthy season since 2010, calling into question whether he can return to that level for 180 innings. After 2013, his ability and durability must be questioned. With only one 200-inning season in his career, Johnson is the polar opposite of a dependable, low-upside arm like Bronson Arroyo.

Personal

Josh is married with two children, and they reside in Las Vegas during the offseason. He's a big golfer who plays to a 1 handicap.

Market

Sosnick told MLBTR Johnson loved playing for Blue Jays manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos. The pitcher has interest in returning to the Jays. If a reunion doesn't happen, pretty much any team could explore a deal, since the risk will be limited to one year. The Cubs, Rays, Mets, Rangers, Pirates, Nationals, Twins, Indians, and Athletics are some teams that have shown a willingness in recent years to sign free agent starting pitcher projects.

Expected Contract

A one-year deal free of options is in the cards for Johnson, as he aims to rebuild value with a healthy 2014. The gold standard contract for a pitcher coming off an injury is the one-year, $10MM deal Ben Sheets signed with the Athletics after missing all of 2009. Though that contract is almost four years old, I see it as the ceiling for Johnson. Ultimately, I predict a one-year, $8MM deal, with significant incentives in the $4-6MM range.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Tim Hudson

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2013 at 8:55am CDT

After a slow start to his 2013 campaign, Tim Hudson was on a serious hot streak before a fractured ankle — suffered while covering first base on a grounder — put an end to his season in late July. Hudson won't have the luxury of hitting free agency off another 200-inning season, but there should still be plenty of teams interested in the TWC Sports client.

Strengths/Pros

Hudson, who turned 38 in July, is as seasoned a veteran as there is on the free agent market, but that experience doesn't come at the cost of greatly diminished results. Hudson's 3.97 ERA this season was roughly league average (97 ERA+), but it was also largely the product of a slow start and abnormally low strand rate. Hudson pitched to a 5.37 ERA through June 1, but over his final 10 starts in 2013, he compiled a 2.73 ERA and 50-to-19 K/BB ratio in 69 2/3 innings. He worked at least seven innings in eight of those contests. Advanced metrics like FIP (3.46), xFIP (3.56) and SIERA (3.75) all feel his ERA should have been lower.

Hudson has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 55 percent, and you'd have to go back to 2006 to find the last time that he averaged more than three walks per nine innings. Both of those traits help keep his pitch counts low, allowing him to work deep into games. Hudson personifies the "bulldog" mentality, as he's averaged 6 2/3 innings per start over his 15-year career, and that hasn't changed much of late; he's averaged 6.5 innings per start over the past four seasons. Hudson is more than just an innings eater though, as he's only posted an ERA north of 4.00 twice in his 15-year Major League career.

Given his age and his injury, the Braves don't figure to extend a qualifying offer, meaning that Hudson won't require the sacrifice of a draft pick this offseason. Despite the fact that his season ended in July, Hudson is scheduled to be 100 percent by early- to mid-November, so teams will be able to get a look at him early rather than waiting until after the New Year.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hudson's never been much of a strikeout pitcher, and that's unlikely to change at this stage of his career. His 2013 K/9 rate of 6.5 was the fourth-highest single-season mark of his career and his second-highest since 2002. Teams with questionable infield defense will likely be a bit more wary of Hudson.

While this season's injury was of a fluky nature, it still marks the third time since 2008 that Hudson has undergone surgery. He had Tommy John back in August of 2008 and underwent back surgery to repair a herniated disc in November of 2011 — an operation that cost him the first month of the 2012 season. Hudson has typically been healthy throughout his career, but teams may try to use the fact that he's spent time on the DL in four of the past six seasons as leverage.

Hudson has begun to see a slight drop in his velocity as well. After averaging 90-91 mph from 1999-2011, he's failed to crack the 90 mph plateau in 2012-13, though he was close this season (89.7 mph). He's still remained effective working in the 89 mph range, but further decline could be problematic. He'll turn 39 next July, so his age will also be a factor in negotiations. He joins Hiroki Kuroda and Bartolo Colon as the oldest free agent starters in this year's class.

Personal

Tim and his wife, Kim, make their home in Peachtree City — about 30 miles from Atlanta's Turner Field. They have two daughters and a son. In 2009, he founded the Hudson Family Foundation, which has raised more than $400K, primarily for children with health issues throughout Alabama and Georgia. Hudson is known as a natural leader in the clubhouse and gained that reputation early in his career. He enjoys displaying his excellent golf skills in the offseason and spending time at his personal ranch in his native state of Alabama.

Market

Given his age, Hudson seems likely to prioritize winning teams with his eyes set on a World Series. Hudson is a veteran of six postseasons between the A's and Braves, but he's never been a part of a team that won a playoff series. All six times he's gone to the postseason, his team has lost in the Division Series. Still, that postseason experience and Hudson's strong track record will appeal to teams, particularly if they have a top-heavy rotation and would like to add some balance to the middle ranks. He and agent Paul Cohen won't have a difficult time drumming up interest around the league.

Given the amount of time he's spent with the Braves, the team's strong core and his Georgia home, Hudson's preference may be to remain in Atlanta. However, the Braves' wealth of young starting pitching could lead GM Frank Wren to make a tough decision and prioritize other areas of need. Hudson would be a nice addition to probable contenders like the Dodgers, A's, Pirates, Rangers and Nationals. He may prefer to try to pitch closer to the southeast portion of the country than head to a West Coast contender, given his strong family ties in the region.

Expected Contract

I expect Hudson to prioritize a winning environment over maximizing his salary (he's already earned $98MM+ in his Major League career). He could follow the route that other veterans such as Colon, Kuroda and Andy Pettitte have taken in recent years, signing one-year deals with contenders in search of a deep postseason run. His injury hurts his stock, but given the quick recovery timeline and the fact that it's not an elbow or shoulder ailment, it shouldn't force him to take a dramatic pay cut. Though the right two-year deal could be appealing, I expect that Hudson will sign a one-year, $9MM contract this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Edward Mujica

By Steve Adams | October 8, 2013 at 8:51am CDT

Edward Mujica entered the season as a solid middle reliever/setup man but quickly found himself thrust into the closer's role after Jason Motte went down with Tommy John surgery and Mitchell Boggs collapsed as Motte's successor. Many felt the ninth inning should go to flamethrowing 22-year-old Trevor Rosenthal, but Mujica silenced critics for much of the season by thriving in the role and upping his free agent stock accordingly.

Strengths/Pros

Few things in baseball are more frustrating than watching a relief pitcher come in and issue multiple walks; that's something Mujica's managers, teammates and fans virtually never have to worry about. Over the past four seasons, Mujica has allowed 37 walks in 275 2/3 innings (1.21 BB/9), but nine of those were intentional. Mujica will put a batter aboard via an unintentional free pass about once every 10 innings. As such, he has a pristine 1.001 WHIP dating back to 2010. The only "free agent" reliever who really comes close to matching Mujica in control is Mariano Rivera, and he won't be signing anywhere this winter.

Over that same four-year stretch, Mujica has a 47.2 percent ground-ball rate, and opponents are batting just .230 against him. Put simply, Mujica does a better job at keeping hitters off the basepaths than most relievers in the game.

Mujica earned just $3.2MM this season, so a qualifying offer would be a tremendous increase in his salary and is therefore highly unlikely. He won't come tied to draft pick compensation, and at age 29, he's one of the youngest free agent relievers on the market. He's also highly durable, having just one DL stint throughout his big league career; that injury was the result of a broken toe suffered when he was struck by a batted ball.

Weaknesses/Cons

The average big league reliever has averaged about eight strikeouts per nine innings over the past four seasons. Mujica has, in turn, whiffed 7.4 hitters per nine innings over that four-year stretch and has dropped to 6.4 strikeouts per nine frames in 2013 (while the MLB average for relievers has risen to 8.3). His low punchout total is a bit curious given his well above-average swinging strike rate (12.5 percent in 2013 and 11 percent for his career).

Advanced metrics like FIP (3.71), xFIP (3.53) and SIERA (3.25) don't necessarily back up Mujica's 2.78 ERA. His .263 BABIP is unusually low, although it's fair to wonder if it's actually a sustainable mark; he's had a BABIP south of .270 in each of the past four seasons. If that's the case, then it's likely that sabermetric stats undervalue him, as they measure him against the league average rather than his own career norms.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Mujica is his poor finish to the season. He carried a 1.73 ERA into September but crumbled in the season's final month, allowing nine runs on 18 hits and a pair of walks over his final 7 1/3 innings. That prolonged meltdown knocked him out of the team's closer spot will likely be brought up in contract discussions this offseason.

Personal

Mujica and his wife, Erika, reside in Yagua, Venezuela, per the Cardinals's media guide. The couple welcomed their first child, Brianna, into the world in July 2012. Mujica is often described as fun-loving, doing things like making custom t-shirts for his teammates with the Marlins to keep the clubhouse light (per MLB.com's Joe Frisaro).

Market

Many teams will be on the lookout for bullpen help this winter, and Mujica is one of the handful of available relievers that will come with ninth inning experience. While many maintain that ninth inning experience isn't a prerequisite for closers ("closers are made, not born"), Mujica's agent, Wil Polidor of Octagon, can boast that his client racked up 37 saves in his first season as a closer and should be compensated for that big number.

Teams don't pay for saves quite as much as they did a few years ago, but there are still old-school general managers and front offices that want to hand the ball to a guy who's "been there before" in the ninth inning. The Tigers, Rangers, Rays, Yankees, A's and Cubs will all lose their closers to free agency or retirement this winter. Other teams like the Mariners, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Indians have seen great uncertainty in their late-inning situations this season. The Cardinals could also express interest in retaining Mujica, though with Motte on the mend and Rosenthal pitching well of late, he may not have an opportunity to regain the closer role in St. Louis.

Of course, there will also be plenty of teams with closers in place who will look to Mujica as a reliable, durable setup man.

Expected Contract

Mujica is the same age that Brandon League was when he signed his three-year, $22.5MM contract with the Dodgers last offseason. While that's proven to be an overpay, that didn't deter the Reds from giving another under-30 reliever, Jonathan Broxton, a similar three-year, $21MM contract a few months later. Neither of those relievers boasted lofty strikeout rates in their walk seasons, and I imagine that will be Polidor's target for Mujica, while the three-year, $16.5MM deal that Joaquin Benoit signed prior to the 2011 season will be the floor.

Back in May, I looked at Mujica's free agent stock and noted that a strong season in the ninth inning couls land him a deal similar to Broxton's. Despite his slide at the end of the season, I believe that a three-year, $21MM deal remains a reasonable expectation given his youth, durability, elite command and strong track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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