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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rich Harden

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In the 2009-10 offseason, the Athletics guaranteed $12MM to injury-risk starting pitchers Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer.  For 2010-11, the A's made their major commitments to relievers Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour, but also picked up starters Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy for a total of $2.5MM.  So far in 2011, the two righty starters have combined for a tidy 3.76 ERA in 206 innings.

Less than a third of those innings have come from Harden, who developed a lat injury in February and didn't make his season debut until July 1st.  Since then Harden has made all of his scheduled starts, 11 of them heading into today's action.  He seemed headed to Boston on July 30th, but the Red Sox saw something they didn't like in his medical files and killed the trade.  Whatever they saw hasn't been an issue yet, as Harden made six starts in August and struck out 42.  During that time the Indians won a claim on Harden, but he again stayed put.

After a terrible 2010 with the Rangers, Harden appears to have returned to the formula that worked relatively well for him in '08 and '09: a huge strikeout rate, limited hits, lots of walks, and a lot of home runs allowed.  Though this approach has led to only a 4.55 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, Harden's 3.39 SIERA ranks fifth among impending free agent starting pitchers with at least 60 innings – just behind Bartolo Colon, C.J. Wilson, and Erik Bedard – though the innings cutoff was designed to include him.  Harden's 10.2 K/9 is easily tops among free agent starters, and ranks third in baseball overall. 

In 2008-09, Harden showed the ability to provide about 150 innings per season.  However, after '10 and '11, teams might have to lower their expectation to 100 innings.  Harden seems likely to continue signing one-year deals for the duration of his career, unless he takes off as a reliever at some point.  His last two free agent contracts guaranteed $7.5MM and $1.5MM, and I think we can split the difference and expect a guarantee in the $4.5MM range for 2012.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported that Harden would be happy to return to the A's next year, so perhaps they'll get a bit of a discount.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Papelbon

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In an upcoming class of free agents flush with solid closers, Red Sox stopper Jonathan Papelbon will arguably be the grand prize. Papelbon, 31 in November, is still in his prime and on track for his sixth consecutive campaign of at least 35 saves in as many seasons as Boston's closer. He didn't merely compile those saves by virtue of simply holding the job; the 2.33 career ERA and 2.68 FIP are befitting a stud closer.

This season, in particular, has been an important one for Papelbon on the heels of a tumultuous 2010. He's posted a 3.14 ERA and 26 saves to date, but if you dig deeper, the advanced estimators like him more than that, enough for a 2.37 xFIP and 1.62 SIERA. If the end-of-season numbers are closer to those figures, Paps will hit the open market on quite the high note.

Papelbon avoided arbitration last offseason for a $12MM salary in 2011, and I'd guess he won't want to take a cut in annual salary (I know, going out on a limb there). And considering three-year deals were handed out like so many Jolly Ranchers to setup men such as Joaquin Benoit and Scott Downs last winter, he'd be silly not to seek a pact of at least that length.

The tricky part is that his most obvious suitor, or perhaps the one that seems the likeliest, is his current team, the Red Sox, and they have plenty of bargaining leverage. Setup man Daniel Bard has emerged as one of the game's elite relievers the past couple years, and Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez threaten to dent the market for Papelbon, as do older guys like Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge and Jose Valverde, whose respective teams hold club options for 2012.

Bargaining is a ways off yet, but a couple of experts have shared interesting and differing takes recently. One NL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he wouldn't break up the formidable late-innings duo of Bard and Papelbon, and that he thinks Boston will buck up when it comes down to it. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons said last month that if Papelbon is seeking something like three years and $36MM, the Sox will likely allow him to walk.

I think the terms mentioned by Gammons are probably the magic numbers for Papelbon. Consider, for example, that Mariano Rivera will have earned $15MM for five consecutive years from 2008-12 (on three- and two-year contracts), and $36MM for three doesn't seem so unreasonable. Of course, that's a dicey comparison because of Mo's greatness, his inextricable ties to the Yankees organization and so on. But there are parallels. Is Paps the Red Sox's Rivera? More pointedly, will the sides proceed in contract dealings the way the Yanks and Rivera have — knowing that they need each other? My bet is, "yes."

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jimmy Rollins

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In theory, the Yankees’ negotiations with Derek Jeter could have provided a model for the Phillies, whose star shortstop hits free agency this offseason. Jimmy Rollins is a longtime fixture in Philadelphia, so there are definite parallels between him and Jeter, who signed a three-year $51MM deal with the Yankees in December. But given how publicly contentious those negotiations became, it’s not easy to imagine the Phillies following the Yankees’ example.

Jimmy Rollins

Instead, the Phillies could look to lock Rollins up during the five day period after the World Series, when they’ll have exclusive rights to him, wait and bid for his services against other teams, or let him walk (likely with an offer of arbitration and the expectation that he would decline). Rollins may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he’s a valuable enough player that he should draw lots of interest this offseason if the Phillies let him reach the open market.

That said, he won’t be the premier available shortstop. That honor goes to Jose Reyes, who could ask for Carl Crawford money. The rest of the market includes Rafael Furcal, Jamey Carroll, Clint Barmes and others, though Rollins will likely be the most appealing option once Reyes signs.

There’s a lot to like about Rollins, who turns 33 after the season. He has a .264/.337/.399 line with 13 home runs and 24 stolen bases this year.  Only six shortstops (Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera and Alexei Ramirez) have more wins above replacement than Rollins this year and Jeter is the only shortstop with more WAR since 2000, when Rollins broke into the league, according to FanGraphs.

Rollins also has three Gold Gloves on his mantle and the stats suggest he has earned his hardware. UZR says he is an above-average defender in 2011 and has been for nine consecutive seasons.

However, Rollins’ on-base average was just .296 in 2009 and only .320 in 2010, so there has to be some concern about his ability to reach base, despite his solid .337 mark so far in 2011. Since the Phillies will presumably offer arbitration and Rollins projects as a Type A free agent, he’ll cost any team other than Philadelphia a top draft pick.

He figures to surpass the three-year, $22.25MM deal J.J. Hardy signed last month, but it’s hard to imagine a deal worth more than Jeter’s $51MM. Rollins is worth more to the Phillies than any other team because of his history in Philadelphia, just as Jeter means more to the Yankees than he would to any other club. That doesn’t mean the Phillies are going to hand their shortstop a blank check, however. If Rollins does stay in Philadelphia, it's not hard to imagine the sides agreeing to a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Capps

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MLB teams made what's arguarbly the riskiest investment in baseball 17 times last offseason, signing free agent relief pitchers to multiyear deals. Not surprisingly, many of the deals haven't worked out, but that won't stop baseball's owners from handing out another round of generous contracts to the relievers who hit the open market this offseason.

Matt Capps

Relievers like Matt Capps, who are mere months away from free agency, have every reason to wonder if they'll be among the beneficiaries of teams' never-ending search for bullpen stability. Unfortunately for Capps (and the Twins), his numbers have fallen off in 2011, so his case for a multiyear deal isn't as strong as it would have been last year.

The 27-year-old is striking out far fewer hitters this year (4.5 K/9, 12.3 K%) than in 2010 (7.3 K/9, 19.3 K%). Capps' average fastball velocity has dropped from 94 mph to 92.8 mph and opposing hitters are making more contact than they did a year ago. When they do make contact, it's much less likely to be a ground ball now (38.8% ground ball rate) than it was in 2010 (49.8% ground ball rate). The right-hander's ERA now sits at 4.34 (4.27 xFIP), about two runs higher than last year's 2.47 mark (3.31 xFIP). 

To his credit, Capps has cut down on walks (1.2 BB/9) compared to last year (2.1 BB/9), but that doesn't make the warning signs disappear. The market for relievers who are losing fastball velocity, inducing fewer ground balls and generating fewer swings and misses doesn't tend to be strong.

It's a lot for the Twins to take into account when deciding whether to offer arbitration this offseason. Capps projects as a Type A free agent, so Minnesota could theoretically obtain two top draft choices by offering arbitration if he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.

But would any team surrender a high draft choice for the right to sign Capps? And, perhaps more to the point, wouldn't Capps' representatives at Wasserman Media Group recommend that their client accept an offer of arbitration? After all, Capps earns $7.15MM this season and would earn a raise by accepting arbitration.

All of this makes it seem unlikely that Capps will obtain an arbitration offer from the Twins, so it's hard to imagine him hitting the market tied to draft pick compensation. All Capps will cost is cash and owners have shown a willingness to overpay for serviceable relievers before. If he obtains multiyear security on the open market despite his decline in performance, he won't be the first reliever to profit from baseball's over-eager owners.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hiroki Kuroda

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Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has established himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter in three-plus Major League seasons since coming over from Japan. With a respectable career strikeout rate (6.6 K/9), fine control (2.2 BB/9) and the ability to induce ground balls (roughly 50%), Kuroda should draw interest as one of the better pitchers in what looks to be a so-so class of free-agent hurlers this offseason, including C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro.

Because of Kuroda's age, his seeming affinity for Los Angeles and the Dodgers' uncertain financial standing, it'll be interesting to see how his second foray into free agency in as many years plays out. Kuroda, who will turn 37 in February, signed a one-year, $12MM pact with the Dodgers in November 2010. I think that was a relatively modest deal considering Kuroda was coming off his best (and healthiest) season, but it did include a full no-trade clause, and Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported that Kuroda didn't even entertain offers from other clubs before re-signing with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers probably won't be big spenders so long as they are being managed by MLB, and it's uncertain when the team will be sold. However, Kuroda has already shown a willingness to exchange cash (and perhaps years) for security. Assuming he remains happy in Los Angeles, I could see him taking a similar deal with the Dodgers this offseason. If he chooses to test the market, or if the team wishes to go in another direction, I think he could probably find a two-year deal at a similar annual salary, likely without the benefit of a blanket no-trade.

Of course, considering his age, there's always the chance Kuroda could simply call it a career or return to NPB, where a couple of clubs were reportedly interested in his services last offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Lance Berkman

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Most eyes are on Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder as it pertains to the upcoming class of free-agent first basemen, and rightly so. However, Pujols' teammate Lance Berkman, who signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Redbirds in the offseason, bears watching, too.

Through his first two months in St. Louis, Berkman has largely regained the stroke that made him one of baseball's best and most consistent sluggers during the first decade of his career. His season line stood at .329/.444/.599 entering Sunday's game against the Cubs, which is vastly better than the .248/.368/.413 he posted during an injury-marred 2010 that he split between the Astros and Yankees.

Some regression is to be expected this season considering Berkman's career line of .297/.410/.547, but clearly a steep decline is not underway as 2010 may have indicated. However, 2012 will Berkman's age-36 season, and although he's playing the outfield now with St. Louis, he's best suited for first base or perhaps even DH, a role he filled during his time with the Yanks. As it is, he's been getting fairly regular rest as he works around various nagging ailments.

So, what does this mean for his Berkman's prospects on the free-agent market? Of course, a lot could happen between now and then, but barring injury, I think the Big Puma will be looking at a deal comparable to the one Aubrey Huff signed with the Giants last offseason: two years, $22MM, and perhaps some kind of option. Berkman has a more distinguished career than Huff, of course, but he is older and has had injury concerns the past couple years. As well, Berkman will be viewed as third-best free-agent first baseman after Pujols and Fielder. Carlos Pena, who is younger but not as good of a hitter as Berkman, will draw interest too.

With a lot of variables at play here – such as the Cards' dealings with Pujols, Berkman's health and his red-hot start – it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Gregg

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The Blue Jays declined their option(s) for closer Kevin Gregg earlier this month, making the right-hander a free agent for the second time in as many offseasons. Let's review his stock…

The Good

  • Gregg has always been a strikeout pitcher, posting at least an 8.8 K/9 in three of the last four years. His ground ball rate has settled in close to 42% over the last three seasons.
  • With at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons, Gregg has experience late in games and would be able to step right into the ninth inning for an interested team.
  • He's never been on the disabled list.
  • Gregg is a Type B free agent, so it doesn't matter that the Jays offered him arbitration. A team will not have to surrender a draft pick to sign him.

The Bad

  • All of those strikeouts come with a healthy amount of walks. Gregg has walked 4.2 batters per nine innings over the last three season, and that doesn't include intentional free passes.
  • He can be prone to the long ball, surrendering one homer for every nine innings pitched over the last three seasons.
  • Gregg is 32 (33 in June), so the prime of his career could be in the rear-view mirror.

The Verdict

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has kept in touch with Gregg this offseason, and the Rockies are expected to have some interest as well. Although he's obviously a notch below Rafael Soriano, Gregg is a solid free agent option for a team looking to shore up its late-game bullpen at a reasonable cost. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mariano Rivera

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It's not often that a free agent class offers not just one, but two first-ballot Hall of Fame relievers, yet that's exactly the situation we're in this offseason. Let's review the stock of the great Mariano Rivera…

The Good

  • Rivera remains the master at limiting base runners, holding opponents to a .181/.211/.266 batting line with just 25 unintentional walks over the last three seasons. His WHIP during that time is a microscopic 0.797.
  • His postseason track record is unmatched in terms of both quantity and quality. His 139.2 playoff innings feature a 0.71 ERA and 0.766 WHIP, and it's been ten years since someone took him deep in the postseason.
  • Although he's a Type-A free agent, the Yankees did not offer Rivera arbitration, so it would not cost a draft pick to sign him. 

The Bad

  • Rivera will turn 41 years old on Monday, and just three men in baseball history (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Trevor Hoffman) have recorded a 20-save season at that age or older.
  • He's two years removed from offseason shoulder surgery and has dealt with a nagging side injury since the 2009 playoffs.
  • The velocity of his legendary cutter is gradually declining, and his 6.8 K/9 in 2010 is his second lowest strikeout rate since 1998.

The Verdict

Rivera is a free agent in name only, as just about everyone expects him to re-sign with the Yankees at some point. Even so, he's reportedly seeking a two-year deal worth $18MM a season, a price very few teams can match. The Yanks understandably want to limit a contract to one season, but there's no reason to expect Mo to wear anything but Yankee pinstripes in 2011. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pedro Feliciano

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Quality left-handed relievers are always a hot commodity (perhaps even over-valued) on the free agent market, and one of the best available this winter is former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk Pedro Feliciano. Let's review his stock…

The Good

  • Feliciano's an absolute workhorse, leading the league in appearances in each of the last three seasons. He's also appeared in more games each successive year, topping out at 92 this year.
  • As you'd expect, he's been excellent against left-handed batters, holding them to a .212/.271/.310 batting line with 9.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over the last three years.
  • Although he was offered arbitration, Feliciano is just a Type-B free agent, so it will not cost a draft pick to sign him. 

The Bad

  • Feliciano will turn 35 next summer, so all of those appearances could catch up to him in the not-too-distant future.
  • He's strictly a lefty specialist; right-handers have tagged him for a .325/.420/.474 batting line over the last three seasons with nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (55).
  • Feliciano has historically been homer prone. He allowed seven long balls in both 2008 and 2009 (1.1 HR/9) before surrendering just one in 2010 (0.1 HR/9).
  • Feliciano wanted a multiyear contract extension from the Mets in 2009, so chances are he's still seeking a deal that will guarantee him more than one year.

The Verdict

Feliciano is one of those free agents that you could see fitting with all 30 teams. He's been one of the best lefty relievers in baseball over the last few years, but he doesn't offer much flexibility and is no spring chicken. Feliciano represents a nice alternative to teams scared by the asking price of Scott Downs or Brian Fuentes, so he should have his pick from several offers.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Guerrier

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Matt Guerrier probably caught a break when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration earlier this week. Fellow Type As Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor and Grant Balfour all got offers of arbitration and will cost picks, but teams can sign the 32-year-old Guerrier without having to surrender a draft choice. Here's a detailed look at his free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Guerrier led the league in appearances in 2008-09 and pitched in 74 games this past season.
  • He induces more grounders than fly balls.
  • His slider is excellent.
  • Guerrier has a 2.7 K/BB ratio against right-handed hittters in his career. 
  • He has just a 1.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters in his career, but he does induce more groundballs against them (55%).
  • As mentioned earlier, it won't cost a pick to sign Guerrier.

The Cons

  • Defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Guerrier's 3.17 ERA would have been higher if he had been less lucky in 2010.
  • He posted 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 last year. That's not spectacular and both rates were better in 2009.
  • The free agent market is flush with right-handed relievers, so Guerrier won't have much leverage.

The Verdict

The Twins are one of many teams that could use a steady arm like Guerrier's. MLB.com's Kelly Thesier wrote last month that they seem more likely to retain Guerrier and Jesse Crain than their other free agent relievers.

The market has played out favorably for at least one reliever, but Guerrier doesn't have the gaudy numbers that Joaquin Benoit does. Teams will have interest in someone with a history of effectiveness and durability, but I will be surprised if Guerrier earns more than $4-5MM on a one-year deal.

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