Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
- Do you want to spend today at a cookout with your friends, family and neighbors? Or do you want to spend it talking to a Canadian about baseball on the internet?
- Use your freedom to decide on that and I'll be back at 2pm Central. Feel free to drop questions in the meantime.
- Hello.
- Do you hear the chimes of freedom where you are?
- There's construction going on outside my home, so I can barely hear myself think.
- Let's enjoy discussing baseball together.
Western skies
- Happy four days after Canada Day! The Braves are saying all the right things, but they’re going to more than tweak before the deadline, right? I’ve thought for some time they will use the All-Star stuff as a showcase/diversion before making any big moves. Then what?
Steve
- Do you think the Braves sell after the Schwellenbach news? Would Olson to the Red Sox for Casas plus some other pieces be possible?
notsohotlanta
- As the Braves continue their quest to prove they are pulseless ,when does the sale/trade begin? When does Snitker and the hitting staff exit?
Darragh McDonald
- Barring a red-hot streak in the coming weeks, I do think Atlanta needs to accept their fate and sell. I assume that, internally, they are aware things aren't going well.
- I understand why AA felt the need to project outward confidence. You don't want to tell your players you're waving the white flag.
- But making a run with no Sale, Schwellenbach, Lopez or AJSS is really hard to see.
- FanGraphs gives them just a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs as of this moment. Unless they crack off a 13-game winning streak or something, I think they will do some selling, at least of impending free agents.
- I don't think Olson will be available.
- As for Snitker and the staff, that I don't know. The World Series victory surely gives him a lot of rope but things have been trending down for a few years now.
-
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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Cubs, Sasaki, Angels, Volpe
This week's mailbag is a bit of a hybrid. MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes handles the first handful of questions, while Anthony Franco takes the final few to round it out. We'll get into the Braves' continually sinking playoff chances, trade possibilities for the Cubs, Roki Sasaki's disappointing debut season, deadline outlooks for a handful of bubble teams, and much more!
Kevin asks:
Should the Braves attempt a rebuild, move on from some of the core that is underperforming again and develop a new draft philosophy? Maybe draft some hitters?
Phillip asks:
I am a Braves Fan, win or lose and I watch them every night. This season and the season they won the World Series are 2 different entities. Why would the Braves not trade Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna? I mean we have so many weaknesses, we have 3 starting pitchers, bottom of our lineup is worst in baseball and our relievers are among the worst in baseball. What could we get for Ozuna and Iglesias?
It's worth considering that the 2021 Braves were 30-35 with 12% playoff odds on 6-16-21. On 7-2-21, that had risen to 40-41 with a 20.6% chance at the playoffs. The current team is worse at 38-46, but still holds a 17.2% chance at the playoffs. It's not that different from where the World Series-winning team once was.
Still, the Braves are 7.5 games out in the Wild Card. They've played like a 73-win team. To have a shot at the playoffs they'd need to play more like a 100-win team. I'm more on the side of Braves fans here than I am on the side of FanGraphs Playoff Odds. And these guys wrote in before news of Spencer Schwellenbach's injury.
Ozuna, 34, has experienced a power outage this year. However, his expected slugging percentage is .487 versus his actual .392 mark, and I assume he'll be fine. He's a DH-only rental making $16MM, so my guess is that he'd bring in 40-grade type prospects. Iglesias is 35 and making the same money. His velocity and strikeout rate are slipping, and somehow 18.4% of his flyballs have left the yard. I think he'd be a pure salary dump.
So while I don't think the Braves will make the playoffs, I also don't think they're re-stocking the farm system by trading Ozuna and Iglesias.
As for Kevin's question, let's do a mini-assessment of the Braves' core, with the player's 2026 age in parentheses. Money owed in 2025 is not included.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Washington Nationals
MLBTR's new team-by-team deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the Nationals, who are on pace for their sixth consecutive losing season. The Nats were hanging in there with a 28-30 record at May's end, but an 11-game losing streak led to a brutal 7-19 record in June, all but officially ending Washington's hopes of an end to its lengthy rebuild process. While the team's few cornerstone players are breaking out, pretty much the rest of the roster has underachieved, leaving president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo selling once more heading into the July 31 deadline.
Record: 35-50 (0.1% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Sell Mode
Impending free agents: Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, Andrew Chafin, Paul DeJong, Derek Law
Finnegan was an All-Star in 2024 and drew attention at last year's trade deadline, though he somewhat surprisingly ended up staying put. It could be that the Nationals had too high an asking price, or teams had doubts about Finnegan's shaky advanced metrics, or perhaps a combination of both factors ended up keeping Finnegan in the District for the remainder of 2024. As it happened, Finnegan's performance went south in the second half, and the Nats cut him last winter by non-tendering the reliever instead of a projected $8.6MM arbitration salary. However, the club shaved some cash off that number by then re-signing Finnegan to a one-year, $6MM deal (with $4MM in deferrals).
Now in his sixth season in D.C., Finnegan has again been pretty solid at the back of the Nats' pen, securing 18 of 23 save opportunities and posting a 2.61 ERA over 31 innings. Finnegan doesn't fit the typical closer model with his below-average strikeout rates, and while his 96.1mph fastball velocity this season is still impressive, it is also notably slower than his 97.2mph average velo from 2024. On the plus side, Finnegan's hard-hit ball rate is a strong 37.1% --- a massive turn-around considering few pitchers in the entire sport allowed more hard contact than he did over the 2022-24 seasons.
Washington will surely get more calls about Finnegan this July, and the Nationals may feel more compelled to swing a deal with him just a few months removed from free agency. It isn't a reach to view Finnegan as a fit on almost any roster, given his low remaining salary, how many contenders need bullpen help, and his experience in high-leverage situations. The Cubs reportedly had interest in Finnegan this past winter and the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers were all linked to Finnegan's market prior to last season's trade deadline, so these teams in particular stand out as potential candidates.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series. After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year. The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.
White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event. Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner. That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox. The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.
Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal. While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award. That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.
Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater
Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn. Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.
Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago. On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain. He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.
The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season. But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect. Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
El Chupacabra
- If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
- I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.
Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.
- That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.
Stockholm, AZ
- What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..
Steve Adams
- I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.
RoxTalks
- Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.
Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez
Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics
MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Athletics, a team that has been rebuilding for a few years now. They had an aggressive winter ahead of the 2025 campaign and showed some promise early in the season but they have since fallen back and are clearly not out of the rebuild yet.
Record: 33-50 (0.2% playoff probability)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins
Sell Mode
Impending free agents: Luis Urías, Sean Newcomb, Gio Urshela, T.J. McFarland, Miguel Andujar, José Leclerc
These guys should all be very much available in the next few weeks, though it's unlikely the A's get a massive return from any of them. Luis Urías should be the most appealing of the bunch. The A's signed him to a one-year, $1.1MM deal in the offseason. He has appeared in 66 games so far this year with seven home runs, a 10% walk rate and 13.3% strikeout rate. His .244/.328/.378 batting line translates to a 102 wRC+. He has mostly played second base in 2025 but has also spent some time at third and has extensive experience at both positions. He's not a superstar, but he's a solid option in a market without a ton of others available, so he should be able to net the A's a prospect or two. Last year, infielders like Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Amed Rosario were flipped for modest returns and Urías could be somewhat similar.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've had a good week!
Tony
- Thanks for the chat! My question is Cardinal related. It appears that their biggest needs are bullpen and right handed hitting outfield. If they packaged Fedde and Gorman (change of scenery) and a minor league catcher (or Pages from the MLB team) what kind of returns would you expect? Any impact players?
Anthony Franco
- Not getting any impact talent with those guys. I think they each have slightly positive trade value but that's a quantity over quality package at this point. You'd probably need a team that really likes Pages' glove and thinks he's a low-end #1 catcher to get anything of note back
Sandy
- All of the mock trades for me have been wild. If seen mocks that include both Leo De Vries & Ethan Salas is crazy. What type of package do the Marlins get for me
Anthony Franco
- I have no idea what you're referring to on the mock specifics but yeah, they wouldn't get either De Vries or Salas
- I do think they can pull a 50-FV type headliner though, someone who'd fall into the back half of the top 100 range. The velocity's still there, the command has been better lately, and he's making fourth/fifth starter money
Grateful Follower
- Do you think any team (Tampa?) might attempt to acquire Soderstrom from the A’s with an eye towards possibly returning him to Catcher (even if the switchback was to wait until next year)? Or has that ship sailed?
Anthony Franco
- That'd be a really interesting one. I can see the logic, especially if they pull a controllable MLB starter. Doesn't even necessarily need to be a catcher conversion -- that'd be really tough to do midseason especially -- but just finding a team that can put him back at first base makes some sense
Utah Fan
- Who would be targets for the TWINS if they are buyers at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- Man, any kind of functional pitching. Aside from Ryan, the staff has totally collapsed after the López and Matthews injuries. Feels like they need multiple relievers and at least one new starter if they're going to try to make it work this year
Knock-Knock
- If Garver is your backup catcher you’re doing great at the position. He was brought in to DH for the M's, but that didn’t work out. He is overqualified for his current job, but I’d rather have him sit in the dugout 4 days in a row than bring up Ford to sit. With Cal as the forever catcher, Ford is tradeable. Why bring him up and run the risk of diminishing his value or to play once a week when he can add to his value playing every day in the minors?
Anthony Franco
- This one seems like it's conditional on a Garver IL stint but at some point, Ford just has nothing left to show them in Triple-A
- Cal's not going away anytime soon. They're just going to have to do the Drake Baldwin/Dalton Rushing thing of using him infrequently as a backup with the potential for occasional DH starts and letting him get his feet wet against big league pitching
Gimenez
- Whatever happened to Andres Gimenez? Did he peak at age 23? It's one thing being a .250 hitter, but he's been below the Mendoza line for most of the season.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Colorado Rockies
MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Colorado Rockies, who are on pace to break the 2024 White Sox' modern-day record for losses in a single season. General manager Bill Schmidt's club is on pace for a staggering 37 wins this season -- a mark that 23 of the game's 29 other clubs have already reached as of late June. The Rockies are a clear seller -- or at least, they should be. The Rox typically march to the beat of their own drum, however, and owner Dick Monfort seems particularly averse to any large-scale sell-offs.
Still, given the Rockies' historic futility in 2025, the expectation is that they'll move some veteran pieces, while the fan base's hope might be for an uncharacteristically active deadline on the sell side of things.
Record: 18-62 (0% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins
Sell Mode
Impending free agents: Germán Márquez, Thairo Estrada, Austin Gomber, Kyle Farmer, Orlando Arcia
Márquez has been a pillar for the Rockies' staff since coming over in a 2015-16 offseason trade that sent outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Rays. The Rox have resisted trading him in the past, twice signing him to extensions. He's now in his first full season post-Tommy John surgery, earning $10MM. There'll be about $3.17MM of that sum yet to be paid out of as of deadline day. Márquez got out to an awful start but has turned in a 3.21 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over his past nine starts (though that includes six unearned runs in his last start against the Dodgers). His 17.6% strikeout rate in that span is nowhere near peak levels, but his command has been good and he's averaging better than 95 mph on his heater. Plenty of teams would look at Marquez's velocity and track record of missing bats and think they could turn him around further.
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MLB Mailbag: Helsley, Giants, Rangers, Brewers, Gore, Cubs, Padres
This week's MLBTR Mailbag looks at Ryan Helsley's value, potential upgrades for the Giants, some Rangers trade candidates, the Brewers' infield, MacKenzie Gore's breakout and why he's a difficult trade candidate to envision, the Cubs' bench, the Padres' outfield and more!
Let's dive in!
Sam asks...
Given Helsley's dip in performance this year, would the Cardinals get more future value/prospects by trading him or offering a QO? This questions assumes that the decision is made entirely on boosting the farm system, not with any considerations for this year's team or the '25 playoffs.
The assumption there is important, as I'm not at all convinced the Cardinals will trade Helsley given the manner in which they've trounced preseason expectations from just about everyone (myself one thousand percent included). From a pure look at future value, though, the more prudent move to gain future value is to trade him before July 31. Holding him makes further assumptions than the one you listed in this question; it assumes that Helsley will stay healthy and that he'll pitch well enough to merit a qualifying offer at season's end. Neither is a given.
Further, there's no certainty that he'd sign a contract worth $50MM or more even if he rejects a qualifying offer. That's the threshold needed to secure a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft. If Helsley signed for under $50MM, that comp pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, some 40 picks later.
If Helsley is healthy and pitching well, there's a good case for him to land that $50MM+, but we can't assume he gets it. There have been instances in the past of relievers turning down a QO, seeking a massive payday, and lingering in free agency because their initial ask was too high and because teams had exhausted their offseason budgets by the time that asking price came down. Cardinals fans should be quite familiar with this phenomenon; it's how Greg Holland landed in St. Louis back in 2018.
So, there's a lot of presumption just to get to the point where the Cardinals select in the No. 31-35 range with the comp pick for Helsley -- and then there's the matter of actually drafting the correct player there as well. There are obvious, bigger-picture benefits to adding that pick's slot value to the team's 2026 draft budget, but the best way to maximize that value is to land a high-quality prospect there. Let's run through the recent history of players selected with QO compensation picks after the first round:
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