MLB Mailbag: Williams, Trade Deadline, Valdez, Keith, Red Sox, Muncy, Jays’ Outfield
It's time for another installment of our weekly MLB Mailbag. I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes once more this week before he takes back over next week. In today's mailbag, we'll look at Devin Williams' signature changeup, a group of potential first base targets on the trade market and what they might cost, Framber Valdez's earning power, Colt Keith's role in Detroit, the Red Sox' struggles and Rafael Devers' future, the Dodgers' third base outlook and Toronto's collection of outfielders. Let's dive in.
Elden asks:
I admittedly never followed Devin Williams before the NYY acquired him but isn't it odd to have a closer so heavily reliant on changeups? What is the current timeline to get Weaver back?
It's odd, yes, but when said changeup is arguably the best pitch in baseball since Williams' debut, it's hard to argue with the approach. First, let's look at historical changeup usage by Williams.
Sports Info Solutions began tracking pitch types back in 2002. Since the 2002 season, there have been 6500 individual seasons by relievers with more than 20 innings thrown. Only 20 of them have seen a reliever deploy his changeup at a 50% clip or higher. Williams has five of those. Tommy Kahnle has four of them.
Williams isn't the only reliever to make a career out of a lethal changeup, of course. Trevor Hoffman rode his changeup to the Hall of Fame. Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney had dominant changeups at their peaks. None threw their changeup even close to as frequently as Williams, however. Broadly speaking, yes, it's quite rare for relievers to be this reliant on changeups. It's rare for relievers to even have a changeup as their go-to secondary offering; fastball/slider combos have been en vogue for years and remain so.
Statcast and its pitch tracking data were rolled out in all 30 MLB parks back in 2015. Since 2015, Williams' "Airbender" unsurprisingly grades out as the best changeup in the sport, but it's also the eighth-most valuable pitch overall. The only individual pitches that carry greater value in that time are (in order): Kenley Jansen's cutter, Josh Hader's sinker, Chad Green's four-seamer (!!), Edwin Diaz's slider, Zack Britton's sinker, Emmanuel Clase's cutter and Liam Hendriks' four-seamer. Of course, it bears mentioning that Jansen, Hader, Green, Hendriks and Diaz have all pitched far more in that decade-long window than Williams, who only debuted in 2019.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
- Good afternoon! We'll get this going at 2pm, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
- Hello! Sorry to start a couple minutes late. Let's get underway!
Marlins
- Who on the team gets the All Star nod? Agustin Ramirez?
Steve Adams
- I would imagine it's Kyle Stowers. They've both been good overall and cooled off recently but Stowers has been up all year. I guess you could say Ryan Weathers if he makes another six or seven really good starts between now and then, but Stowers feels likeliest to me right now
Beano
- How low can W Adames numbers go this year? A career year repeat was out of the question, but a total bust is surprising - no?
Steve Adams
- Yeah, it's a pretty big surprise. It's also worrying, because the main culprit I'd point to is bat speed. Adames is actually chasing less often and making more contact in the zone. His strikeout and walk rates are similar to last year. He's not suddenly hitting a ton of grounders -- though his GB% is up a slight bit, nothing major.
He's tied for the eighth-biggest drop in bat speed, as measured by Statcast, among 175 qualified big leaguers. That's not great, obviously. He was at 73.6 mph in 2024 and is down to 71.8 mph in 2025.
You never know precisely how healthy a player is. Maybe he's working through something that's hampering his shoulder or wrist strength. Maybe he made a tweak in his mechanics moving to a bigger park and it's having an adverse effect.
It's impossible to say, but you're plenty justified to be concerned with the first two-plus months at this point.
Kegger
- Do you see only rentals moving at deadline or bigger deals happening?
Steve Adams
- There will always be some players with multiple years of team control moved. The Rays are always a team to watch here because of their constantly strong farm and their constant payroll crunches. Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Drew Rasmussen come to mind. Pete Fairbanks. The Rockies waited too long to trade Ryan McMahon, but they're so bad this year that I wonder if they'll finally listen on guys like him or Kyle Freeland
- Marlins obviously will listen on Alcantara, but they'll want to avoid selling too low. Ryan Weathers and Anthony Bender will get looks. Jesus Sanchez, too.
- Pirates will have David Bednar and Dennis Santana, both controlled through 2026. Bailey Falter is another one there. Nathaniel Lowe in Washington
- Even win-now clubs looking to buy will be forced to part with some young major leaguers; that's the nature when there's a limited inventory of available players for buy-side teams to target and when teams are more reluctant than ever to trade true prospects.
Kevin in Ranger Texas
- Idea of Texas trading Mahle or Corbin or Gray after he comes back, for a consistent hitter to help in the lineup, hopefully the guys we have now can turn it around but…. Adolis is no help, Jung has slowed, Seager has not helped out. Should we trade ? And stay in it.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office members! Subscribe to Front Office to view the full transcript and to participate in future Friday chats.
Anthony Franco
- Initially linked to the moderator part of the chat, sorry about that. I'll be back at the top of the hour but you should be able to submit advance questions now
- Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Let's get rolling
Cedanne Rafaela
- What’s a realistic projection for my future value? If I can figure out the hit tool, man watch out. Maybe this isn’t the guy to demote to get Roman to the big leagues after all.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah it looks like it's falling into place a little bit. He's always going to be a super aggressive hitter, which is probably going to lead to streakiness, but he's got pretty good pop for his size and the contact skills have gotten better with each seasons
- Obviously the glove in center field is already elite. I think the OBP is going to stay low enough that he'll probably be around a league average hitter by OPS+ or wRC+ but he could be a 20-20 guy who ranks among the top 3-5 defensive outfielders in the game
AA
- Do the Braves become sellers at the trade deadline?
Jeddy
- It’s meatball trade idea season. The Braves are 7 games below .500 and 11 games out of the division. They should definitely trade Chris Sale to the Cubs ASAP right?
Sam
- Is this rock bottom for the Braves? How many more ways can a team find to lose a game? AA knew the bullpen was a weakness going into the season but did nothing to address it.
Anthony Franco
- Understandably frustrated Braves fans. Have to imagine they'll hang on right until the deadline before deciding to sell (sorry Jed), but yeah, sure seems like it's trending in that direction
- Feel worse about their outlook now than I did when they were 0-7. They clawed their way out of the initial hole and then dug it again with some brutal losses. They've stuck with Iglesias as the closer for too long, and Strider hasn't looked sharp coming off the surgery
- Anthopoulos spoke with The Athletic earlier this week and pushed back against the idea of selling. He referenced 2021 and pointed out that their run differential is better than their record (though still not great). Given their previous success and the amount of money they've poured into the payroll, they'll cling to hope as long as they can, but time's running out
- Still lean towards them holding Sale specifically because of the affordable option for '26 but they'll have to at least see if someone's willing to blow them away if there's little to no hope for one of the two remaining playoff runs
Tigerfan
- Who should the tigers target at the deadline? I was thinking Eugenio Suarez and/or David bednar
Anthony Franco
- Both make sense to me. Well-rounded roster so they don't have many obvious holes but third base is relatively weak and Bednar would improve any bullpen with the way he's pitched of late
- You could argue for upgrading on Sweeney at shortstop but there aren't any obvious fits there. Bichette would be the big one but the Jays are playing well enough that he's probably not moving
RAGBRAI
- Has Bednar reclaimed the closer role? Will he hold it ROS?
Anthony Franco
- Fully expect him to hold it for as long as he's still in Pittsburgh but they have to move him this summer and then it's up in the air based on wherever he lands
Mike Rizzo Fan Club
- Hi thanks for the chat! What do you think about Dylan Cease this year? I see there's room to improve based on his stats and BABIP and FIP, but do you think there's an underlying cause (perhaps an injury?). Do you see any drop in fundamental skills? Thanks for your opinion.
Anthony Franco
- Nah, I think he's the same guy he's been. Most of the damage came in one start in early April in Sacramento, which is a tough place to pitch. He allowed nine runs in that one and has allowed three or fewer in each of his other 12 outings
- He's been a little inefficient over his past few outings. Obviously you want more than five innings from a top-end guy, which he hasn't provided over his past three starts. He went at least 6 2/3 in each of the prior three, though, and the stuff and whiff rates are still excellent
Black Hole at 2B
- Who will be the Yankees starting 2Bman after the deadline? I was going to suggest Lewyn Sosa but he's hurt now.
-
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How Should The Cardinals Approach The Deadline?
The Cardinals are amidst a transition year. That's true literally, as John Mozeliak will turn control of baseball operations to Chaim Bloom at season's end. Dating back to last fall, they've framed this season as one primarily about evaluating and developing young players. It's not a rebuild, but their only move to improve over the winter was a bargain $2MM signing of setup man Phil Maton.
It set them up as expected deadline sellers. Impending free agents Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde ranked among the likeliest players to move in July. It was surprising that the Cards even held both players into the season. Nolan Arenado's contract and no-trade clause meant he'd be a tough player to move midseason, but those rumors figured to resurface.
The team is trying its best to avoid those conversations. They have a 34-27 record that has them narrowly ahead of San Francisco and Milwaukee for the NL's final playoff spot. They've outscored opponents by 28 runs, giving them the fifth-best run differential in the National League. They went an MLB-best 19-8 in May. They've played like a contender so far. One opposing GM who was eyeing trade targets on the St. Louis roster succinctly told Jeff Passan of ESPN this week that the team's better than expected play "sucks" for potential buyers.
Much can change in the next six to eight weeks, but the front office may find itself in a tricky spot. Mozeliak addressed the situation in a chat with Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week. "We went into this year with an understanding this was going to be about opportunity for players and depending on what they do with it would determine our next steps, right?" he rhetorically asked. "So when you think about how the public had us as sellers — whether it was selling this offseason or selling at the trade deadline. It might look a little different based on how we’re playing."
It's an acknowledgment that the team could play its way off selling. At the same time, that wouldn't provide much clarity on how aggressively the team should add if they remain competitive. That's a tougher call, especially because of the way their first half has unfolded. The team may be better than expected, but the production has come mostly from their more established players -- particularly on offense. If the Cards are going to upgrade, the most obvious spots to do so would limit the playing time of a pair of young hitters on whom much of their season is supposed to be focused.
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MLB Mailbag: Duran, Bregman, Mariners, Yoshida, Donovan, Giants, Angels
I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. We'll tackle questions on Jarren Duran and the Padres, Alex Bregman's opt-out status, Donovan Solano and Tyler Locklear in Seattle, Masataka Yoshida, Brendan Donovan, some Giants rotation standouts, the Angels' bullpen and more!
Ross asks:
With the report that the Padres are interested in Jarren Duran, what would be a reasonable return for the Red Sox?
As we discussed on the podcast this week, the Padres/Duran connection feels like it's drawing a bit more attention than it should, at least based on the chances of him actually changing hands (even more so if we specifically zero in on the Padres). That's not to say there's no chance of a Duran deal, but the Padres have a clear need in the outfield and an ultra-aggressive baseball operations leader in A.J. Preller. It'd frankly be more surprising if they hadn't inquired on Duran.
That said, it's worth diving into a bit. Duran had a borderline MVP-caliber season last year, hitting .285/.342/.492 with plus defense and elite baserunning. Baseball-Reference valued him at 8.7 wins above replacement. We've seen players named MVP with lesser WAR totals than that, but Duran was an afterthought in the 2024 race thanks to outrageously good seasons from Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and (to a slightly lesser extent) Juan Soto.
The Padres' farm system was once a powerhouse but is now top-heavy and lacking depth. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are among MLB's 25 best prospects, but there's not a lot of other talent in the hopper. It makes a deal difficult to envision -- for multiple reasons.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today, at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
- Good afternoon! I'll get this started at 2:30pm CT, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time if you prefer!
- Greetings all! Let's get underway a bit early
Mrs Murphy
- Is it time to wave the white flag in Atlanta? This offense is just a lost used to be.What’s next for them?
Steve Adams
- Quite a few questions like this from Braves fans, and understandably so, given the poor performance of late, but I generally don't think it's too late for almost any team in MLB, with the obvious exceptions (Rox, Marlins, White Sox, probably the O's and A's).
Atlanta is 5.5 back in the Wild Card chase and "only" four games under .500, which is pretty remarkable when you consider the early struggles and all the time they've had without Strider and Acuña.
Heck, the 2021 Braves were three under .500 at the deadline, and they went on to win the World Series. The Mets and Astros were 10 under .500 this time last year. The 2019 Nats and 2022 Phils were buried even further.
- I was underwhelmed by the Braves' offseason, and losing Profar to a PED suspension is brutal, but it's still a talented core with plenty of winnable series on the near horizon. They get the Rockies, A's, Angels, Orioles, Marlins and a currently struggling D-backs club all before the All-Star break.
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The Quiet MVP Of The Mets’ Pitching Staff
Dating back to Opening Day 2024, the Mets have used 16 different starting pitchers. In today's MLB, that's not really an alarming number. It's right around the median. Clubs like the Dodgers and Brewers lead the pack with 24 starters apiece, while teams with steadier rotations like the Mariners and Twins clock in at only 11 starters each since last year. The Yankees, even after a couple significant injuries in the rotation, have used only 10 -- the fewest in baseball.
The Mets' usage of 16 starters in and of itself isn't remarkable, but it's probably fair to say it also wasn't exactly the plan. Two years ago -- an eternity in the world of Major League Baseball rosters -- they were still dreaming big on future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander forming an elite trio with then-newcomer Kodai Senga. When that didn't go according to plan, the Mets blew things up at the 2023 trade deadline and treated 2024 as something of a bridge year.
The subsequent offseason was punctuated by short-term acquisitions to patch over the rotation. In came Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser -- the first two via free agency and the latter via trade. With Senga and Jose Quintana still on the roster from the year prior, the starting five looked largely set, at least on paper.
As is often the case with pitching staffs, injuries derailed those plans. Senga made one start in 2024. Houser made six before being banished to the bullpen. The Mets picked up Paul Blackburn at last year's deadline, and he made all of five starts before incurring a season-ending injury. Top prospect Christian Scott debuted and looked like he could help to smooth things over ... until he required season-ending Tommy John surgery after just nine starts.
There have been similar hiccups in 2025. Offseason signing Frankie Montas has yet to pitch due to a lat strain. Manaea, who opted out of his previous contract but returned on a heftier three-year deal worth $75MM, has been out all season due to an oblique strain. Scott is still on the mend from that UCL replacement. Blackburn hasn't pitched this season due to a separate knee injury.
But for the past calendar year, the Mets have quietly relied on a homegrown arm to stabilize the staff -- and he's stepped up and thrived as one of the most productive starting pitchers in the sport.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers! Read the transcript below.
- Hi Anthony, have there been way more transactions than usual for late May? Seems so to me.
Anthony Franco
- All minor stuff but yeah, I think so. This week in particular has been really busy with a bunch of small moves
- Granted, Casey Lawrence and Cooper Hummel account for 80% of them
baseball gods laugh and laugh
- What would it take for the Mets to get Brent Suter from the Reds?
Anthony Franco
- Reds are still hanging around so this won't happen in the next couple weeks but yeah, he seems like a perfectly viable Mets target who'd only require a fringe top 30-35 guy in the system
Belli bombs for life
- Yesterday in your Yankees outfielders article, you said Bellinger is virtually guaranteed to opt out after this year. Why? His production is right around where it was for his last season in Chicago. His defensive ratings have gone up, to be fair. But do you think he'll match/exceed the $28.5M he's making next year on a multi-year deal? Why not risk staying in the ballpark made for his swing and enjoy the high AAV for one more year?
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The Yankees’ Outfielders Raising Their Free Agent Stocks
For the second straight season, the Yankees have the best outfield in baseball. Having the best hitter on the planet is an excellent starting point. This level of dominance can't all come from Aaron Judge, though. Last season, Juan Soto paired with Judge as an all-time 1-2 offensive punch. It seemed almost impossible for the outfield to match last year's .266/.377/.516 line after losing Soto to free agency.
They've instead improved upon that monster production through this season's first two months. Yankee outfielders carry a .293/.380/.533 slash. They lead MLB with 37 home runs and trail only the Cubs with 113 runs batted in. They're handily above the rest of the league in all three slash stats. The Cubs are the only team that is particularly close in terms of FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement.
Judge somehow elevating from a .322/.458/.701 performance is the biggest factor. Yet the Yankees have largely offset the loss of production from Soto -- at least so far -- by not having anyone close to last season's weak link, Alex Verdugo. That's a testament mostly to Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, each of whom have gotten out to excellent starts. (Jasson Domínguez has decent numbers overall as well, though most of that comes from a three-homer barrage in Sacramento on May 9.) The early paces from Bellinger and Grisham provide the Yankees needed lineup depth around Judge and Paul Goldschmidt. They're also significant factors for what looks to be a shallow upcoming free agent class behind Kyle Tucker.
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MLB Mailbag: Neto, Nationals, Trade Targets, Free Agents
This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.
RJ asks:
What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?
Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors. As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury. He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.
Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward. He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR. His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.
Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement. The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week). I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.
Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result. He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops. He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball. In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season. Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark. The second-phase breakout seems real.
The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft. Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years. That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.
Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!
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